NFL Playoff Odds
Re-simulated after every graded week from the current standings and the in-season blended ratings โ completed games are fixed, only the remaining schedule is simulated. Through week 1 ยท 100,000 sims ยท model n12-v1.
Week 0 is the locked pre-season snapshot (model n6-v1) โ the published record, not a re-run. Every later point re-sims from what has actually happened.
Playoff odds by week
y-axis 0โ100% playoff probability (dashed line = 50%); x-axis week 0 โ 1. Four teams per panel โ 32 lines on one axis is unreadable, so the league is grouped by division and the chips above filter it.
Biggest movers week 0 โ 1
Up
- JAX +32.4 pp 48% โ 81%
- NYG +22.9 pp 22% โ 44%
- MIN +21.9 pp 41% โ 62%
- LV +21.9 pp 28% โ 50%
- CHI +20.8 pp 28% โ 49%
Down
- DEN -32.1 pp 59% โ 27%
- LA -27.7 pp 43% โ 15%
- DAL -25.0 pp 65% โ 40%
- ATL -24.9 pp 49% โ 24%
- MIA -23.7 pp 51% โ 27%
Standings & odds
| # | Team | Div | Record | Proj W | Playoff% | Div% | ฮ wk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | AFC North | 1-0 | 11.9 | 93% | 68% | +9.1 |
| 2 | JAX | AFC South | 1-0 | 10.5 | 81% | 66% | +32.4 |
| 3 | KC | AFC West | 1-0 | 10.5 | 81% | 62% | +19.9 |
| 4 | SEA | NFC West | 1-0 | 10.8 | 80% | 48% | +2.5 |
| 5 | BUF | AFC East | 1-0 | 10.4 | 78% | 61% | +12.5 |
| 6 | DET | NFC North | 1-0 | 10.5 | 75% | 45% | -4.7 |
| 7 | SF | NFC West | 1-0 | 10.3 | 75% | 40% | +19.2 |
| 8 | PHI | NFC East | 1-0 | 9.7 | 65% | 46% | +1.8 |
| 9 | MIN | NFC North | 1-0 | 9.7 | 62% | 28% | +21.9 |
| 10 | PIT | AFC North | 1-0 | 9.6 | 59% | 16% | +12.4 |
| 11 | CIN | AFC North | 1-0 | 9.4 | 56% | 15% | +9.7 |
| 12 | HOU | AFC South | 0-1 | 8.8 | 50% | 26% | -17.1 |
| 13 | LV | AFC West | 1-0 | 8.9 | 50% | 24% | +21.9 |
| 14 | TB | NFC South | 0-1 | 8.2 | 49% | 44% | +2.0 |
| 15 | CHI | NFC North | 1-0 | 9.1 | 49% | 19% | +20.8 |
| 16 | NYG | NFC East | 1-0 | 8.7 | 44% | 24% | +22.9 |
| 17 | DAL | NFC East | 0-1 | 8.5 | 40% | 21% | -25.0 |
| 18 | NYJ | AFC East | 1-0 | 8.1 | 34% | 15% | +19.8 |
| 19 | NO | NFC South | 0-1 | 7.3 | 30% | 25% | +3.5 |
| 20 | NE | AFC East | 0-1 | 7.7 | 29% | 12% | -13.4 |
| 21 | ARI | NFC West | 1-0 | 8.1 | 29% | 8% | +15.3 |
| 22 | GB | NFC North | 0-1 | 8.1 | 29% | 8% | -21.6 |
| 23 | DEN | AFC West | 0-1 | 7.8 | 27% | 10% | -32.1 |
| 24 | MIA | AFC East | 0-1 | 7.6 | 27% | 11% | -23.7 |
| 25 | ATL | NFC South | 0-1 | 6.9 | 24% | 20% | -24.9 |
| 26 | WAS | NFC East | 0-1 | 7.4 | 20% | 9% | -4.6 |
| 27 | IND | AFC South | 0-1 | 6.8 | 16% | 7% | -20.3 |
| 28 | LA | NFC West | 0-1 | 7.1 | 15% | 3% | -27.7 |
| 29 | CAR | NFC South | 0-1 | 6.1 | 13% | 11% | -1.3 |
| 30 | LAC | AFC West | 0-1 | 6.3 | 10% | 4% | -14.6 |
| 31 | CLE | AFC North | 0-1 | 6.1 | 7% | 1% | -12.6 |
| 32 | TEN | AFC South | 0-1 | 5.0 | 2% | 1% | -3.9 |
ฮ wk is the change in playoff probability since the previous simulated week, in percentage points. Division% is unavailable at week 0 โ the locked snapshot records win totals and playoff odds only. Model-derived fair values, not betting advice.