NHL Playoff Odds
as of 2026-10-30 ยท 100,000 sims ยท sim-h6-v1Re-simulated every morning after last night's games are final: completed games are fixed at their results, only the remaining schedule is simulated โ each game priced by the same engine as the games board, from the current ratings. Top three in each division plus two wild cards per conference qualify.
Launch baseline โ 2026-09-28. The first point on every line is the model's preseason view on the day this page launched, before any game was played. It is a reference point, not a locked futures record: no futures lock exists in v1, nothing was published or graded against it, and it is shown only so later movement has somewhere to start.
Playoff odds over time
y-axis 0โ100% playoff probability (dashed line = 50%); x-axis 2026-09-28 โ 2026-10-30; the dotted vertical line marks the launch baseline. Eight teams per panel, labels in the line's colour.
Biggest movers 2026-10-29 โ 2026-10-30
Up
- DET +8.8 pp 37% โ 46%
- NYI +7.8 pp 30% โ 38%
- MTL +7.6 pp 49% โ 57%
- STL +6.5 pp 41% โ 47%
- LAK +5.7 pp 48% โ 54%
Down
- BOS -9.2 pp 62% โ 53%
- PIT -5.4 pp 49% โ 44%
- OTT -4.9 pp 56% โ 51%
- DAL -4.7 pp 89% โ 85%
- FLA -4.5 pp 65% โ 60%
Standings & odds
Atlantic ยท Eastern
| Team | GP | W-L-OTL | PTS | RW | Proj PTS | 10โ90% | Playoff% | Div% | WC% | ฮ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 14 | 9-4-1 | 19 | 8 | 95.3 | 85โ105 | 53% | 6% | 17% | -9.2 |
| MTL | 13 | 8-3-2 | 18 | 5 | 96.5 | 86โ107 | 57% | 8% | 17% | +7.6 |
| TBL | 12 | 8-3-1 | 17 | 7 | 108.1 | 98โ118 | 95% | 62% | 5% | +0.9 |
| OTT | 14 | 8-5-1 | 17 | 6 | 95.2 | 85โ105 | 51% | 6% | 17% | -4.9 |
| FLA | 13 | 7-4-2 | 16 | 5 | 97.0 | 87โ107 | 60% | 9% | 16% | -4.5 |
| TOR | 15 | 7-6-2 | 16 | 6 | 84.4 | 74โ94 | 9% | 0% | 5% | -0.2 |
| DET | 13 | 6-4-3 | 15 | 4 | 94.3 | 84โ104 | 46% | 5% | 16% | +8.8 |
| BUF | 13 | 6-4-3 | 15 | 4 | 92.2 | 82โ102 | 35% | 3% | 14% | +0.6 |
Metropolitan ยท Eastern
| Team | GP | W-L-OTL | PTS | RW | Proj PTS | 10โ90% | Playoff% | Div% | WC% | ฮ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 15 | 11-2-2 | 24 | 10 | 113.6 | 104โ123 | 99% | 75% | 2% | -0.1 |
| WSH | 12 | 8-4-0 | 16 | 7 | 98.7 | 89โ109 | 70% | 6% | 17% | +2.3 |
| NJD | 13 | 8-5-0 | 16 | 6 | 103.3 | 93โ113 | 86% | 15% | 12% | -1.0 |
| NYI | 13 | 7-4-2 | 16 | 5 | 92.6 | 83โ103 | 38% | 1% | 17% | +7.8 |
| NYR | 14 | 7-6-1 | 15 | 7 | 92.8 | 83โ103 | 40% | 1% | 18% | -0.4 |
| PIT | 13 | 5-6-2 | 12 | 2 | 93.9 | 84โ104 | 44% | 2% | 18% | -5.4 |
| CBJ | 11 | 5-6-0 | 10 | 1 | 86.7 | 76โ97 | 14% | 0% | 8% | -1.8 |
| PHI | 15 | 3-8-4 | 10 | 3 | 79.9 | 70โ90 | 3% | 0% | 2% | -0.5 |
Central ยท Western
| Team | GP | W-L-OTL | PTS | RW | Proj PTS | 10โ90% | Playoff% | Div% | WC% | ฮ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 15 | 9-3-3 | 21 | 9 | 105.9 | 96โ116 | 97% | 31% | 17% | -0.6 |
| UTA | 14 | 9-5-0 | 18 | 7 | 106.6 | 97โ116 | 97% | 35% | 15% | +1.8 |
| COL | 13 | 7-5-1 | 15 | 7 | 104.0 | 94โ114 | 94% | 23% | 23% | +0.4 |
| DAL | 13 | 7-5-1 | 15 | 4 | 99.9 | 90โ110 | 85% | 9% | 38% | -4.7 |
| STL | 13 | 6-6-1 | 13 | 6 | 91.2 | 81โ101 | 47% | 1% | 35% | +6.5 |
| NSH | 13 | 4-4-5 | 13 | 4 | 86.0 | 76โ96 | 20% | 0% | 17% | -3.7 |
| WPG | 13 | 4-6-3 | 11 | 4 | 86.9 | 77โ97 | 25% | 0% | 20% | -4.3 |
| CHI | 13 | 4-9-0 | 8 | 3 | 73.2 | 63โ83 | 1% | 0% | 1% | -0.7 |
Pacific ยท Western
| Team | GP | W-L-OTL | PTS | RW | Proj PTS | 10โ90% | Playoff% | Div% | WC% | ฮ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 13 | 9-2-2 | 20 | 7 | 99.1 | 89โ109 | 87% | 23% | 4% | +0.7 |
| VGK | 14 | 9-4-1 | 19 | 7 | 106.1 | 96โ116 | 98% | 67% | 1% | -0.1 |
| SEA | 13 | 8-4-1 | 17 | 6 | 91.1 | 81โ101 | 52% | 4% | 8% | +1.6 |
| SJS | 14 | 7-6-1 | 15 | 2 | 78.9 | 69โ89 | 6% | 0% | 2% | +0.6 |
| ANA | 13 | 5-7-1 | 11 | 4 | 83.0 | 73โ93 | 16% | 1% | 4% | -3.7 |
| CGY | 12 | 5-7-0 | 10 | 5 | 84.3 | 74โ94 | 21% | 1% | 6% | +0.5 |
| LAK | 12 | 4-6-2 | 10 | 2 | 91.4 | 81โ101 | 54% | 5% | 8% | +5.7 |
| VAN | 15 | 3-11-1 | 7 | 1 | 68.0 | 58โ78 | 0% | 0% | 0% | -0.1 |
Div% is the chance of winning the division; WC% of making it as one of the conference's two wild cards (Playoff% = top three in the division + WC%). Tiebreakers are approximate: points, then regulation wins, then regulation + overtime wins, then wins, then a coin flip standing in for head-to-head and goal differential, which are not simulated. ฮ is the change since the previous point, in percentage points. Model-derived probabilities, not betting advice.