🏈 ChalkProof

NFL Game Projections

Two-week outlook. Spread, total, win probability and vig-free moneylines from the fitted empirical margin distribution — key numbers priced, not smoothed. Model g2-v2 · updated 3h ago. In-season rating blend: 7 week(s) played → observed EPA carries 58% (k_rating 5.0).

Week 8 · 13 games to play · 1 final on Results

BAL @ BUF Sun 1:00 PM ET
BAL 39% BUF 61%
ModelMarket
Spread BUF -3.2 BUF -3.0 12h
Total 57.1 54.5
ML BAL +154 / BUF -154 +145 / -175
Projection factors · 9 — Net: BAL +0.1, total +2.7
  • Rest edge BUF (BUF 14d vs BAL 7d) BUF +1.5 spread
  • BAL QB1 change: Tyler Huntley → Lamar Jackson BAL +1.1 spreadtotal +1.1
  • BUF defense: Jordan Hancock (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status); Dorian Strong (CB, <60% snaps) NFI (roster status) BAL +1.0 spreadtotal +1.0
  • BAL defense: T.J. Tampa (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) BUF +0.5 spreadtotal +0.5
  • BUF defense: C.J. Gardner-Johnson (SS, 90% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • BAL defense: Tavius Robinson (OLB, 69% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • 3 unpriceable absences (no snap history) (BAL, BUF) not priced
chg Depth change Sun 8:00 AM: BAL QB1 → T. Huntley
· 1 more
  • Depth change Sun 8:00 AM: BAL QB2 → J. Fagnano
TEN @ CIN Sun 1:00 PM ET
TEN 20% CIN 80%
ModelMarket
Spread CIN -11.3 CIN -12.5 12h
Total 47.6 46.5
ML TEN +411 / CIN -411 +490 / -675
Projection factors · 6 — Net: CIN +0.6, total +1.4
  • TEN defense: Kendell Brooks (SS, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) CIN +0.9 spreadtotal +0.9
  • CIN defense: Ja'Sir Taylor (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) TEN +0.5 spreadtotal +0.5
  • TEN travel: 1 time zone CIN +0.3 spread
  • CIN defense: Jalen Davis (CB, 66% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • TEN defense: Dorian Mausi (OLB) — no snap history not priced
  • TEN defense: Milo Eifler (ILB) — no snap history not priced
chg Depth change Wed 8:00 AM: CIN TE3 → C. Grandy
· 8 more
  • Depth change Tue 8:00 AM: CIN WR4 → M. Tinsley
  • Depth change Tue 8:00 AM: CIN WR5 → C. Young
  • Depth change Sun 1:00 PM: CIN WR3 → D. Meyers
full feed on /nfl/depth
ARI @ DAL Sun 1:00 PM ET
ARI 32% DAL 68%
ModelMarket
Spread DAL -6.1 DAL -7.0 12h
Total 55.2 54.5
ML ARI +216 / DAL -216 +250 / -310
Projection factors · 8 — Net: DAL +0.8, total +2.2
  • ARI defense: Will Johnson (CB, ≥85% snaps) IR (roster status) DAL +1.3 spreadtotal +1.3
  • DAL defense: P.J. Locke (SS, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) ARI +0.9 spreadtotal +0.9
  • ARI travel: 1 time zone DAL +0.3 spread
  • DAL defense: Jalen Thompson (FS, 98% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • 4 unpriceable absences (no snap history) (ARI, DAL) not priced
chg Depth change Tue 8:00 AM: ARI WR3 → R. Virgil
· 6 more
  • Depth change Tue 8:00 AM: ARI WR4 → S. Fehoko
  • Depth change Tue 8:00 AM: ARI WR5 → D. Duvernay
  • Depth change Sun 8:00 AM: DAL WR4 → J. Mingo
full feed on /nfl/depth
MIN @ DET Sun 1:00 PM ET
MIN 45% DET 55%
ModelMarket
Spread DET -1.6 DET -3.0 12h
Total 45.5 46.5
ML MIN +124 / DET -124 +142 / -170
Projection factors · 6 — Net: MIN +0.6, total +0.9
  • DET defense: Avonte Maddox (FS, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) MIN +0.9 spreadtotal +0.9
  • MIN travel: 1 time zone DET +0.3 spread
  • DET defense: Kerby Joseph (FS, 88% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • DET defense: Devin White (OLB) — unpriceable (thin cell) not priced
  • DET defense: Payton Turner (DE) — no snap history not priced
  • DET defense: Thomas Harper (FS) — unpriceable (backwards estimate) not priced
chg Depth change Tue 8:00 AM: MIN RB1 → J. Mason
· 2 more
  • Depth change Tue 8:00 AM: MIN RB2 → A. Jones
  • Depth change Sun 11:45 AM: MIN RB3 → D. Dallas
IND @ JAX Sun 1:00 PM ET
IND 26% JAX 74%
ModelMarket
Spread JAX -8.5 JAX -10.0 12h
Total 50.3 46.5
ML IND +285 / JAX -285 +380 / -500
Projection factors · 8 — Net: JAX +1.5, total +2.8
  • Rest edge JAX (JAX 14d vs IND 7d) JAX +1.5 spread
  • JAX defense: Dane Jackson (CB, <60% snaps) RESERVE (roster status); Caleb Ransaw (FS, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) IND +1.4 spreadtotal +1.4
  • IND defense: Cameron Mitchell (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status); Reuben Lowery (FS, <60% snaps) RESERVE (roster status) JAX +1.4 spreadtotal +1.4
  • IND defense: Arden Key (DE, 62% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • IND defense: Cam Taylor-Britt (CB, 61% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • 3 unpriceable absences (no snap history) (JAX) not priced
chg Depth change Sat 8:00 AM: IND TE1 → W. Mallory
· 2 more
  • Depth change Sat 8:00 AM: IND TE2 → M. Alie-Cox
  • Depth change Sat 8:00 AM: IND TE3 → A. Ogletree
LV @ NYJ Sun 1:00 PM ET
LV 44% NYJ 56%
ModelMarket
Spread NYJ -1.8 NYJ -1.5 12h
Total 45.3 45.5
ML LV +128 / NYJ -128 +102 / -122
Projection factors · 6 — Net: NYJ +0.9, total +0.0
  • LV travel: 3 time zones, body-clock kickoff NYJ +0.9 spread
  • NYJ defense: Tre Brown (CB, 72% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • 4 unpriceable absences (no snap history) (LV, NYJ) not priced
chg Depth change Wed 8:00 AM: LV WR4 → D. Thornton Jr.
· 4 more
  • Depth change Mon 1:00 PM: NYJ WR2 → O. Cooper Jr.
  • Depth change Mon 1:00 PM: NYJ WR3 → A. Mitchell
  • Depth change Sun 12:00 PM: NYJ RB1 → B. Allen
full feed on /nfl/depth
CLE @ PIT Sun 1:00 PM ET
CLE 39% PIT 61%
ModelMarket
Spread PIT -3.5 PIT -3.5 12h
Total 41.9 39.5
ML CLE +159 / PIT -159 +160 / -192
Projection factors · 5 — nothing the model could price
  • 5 unpriceable absences (no snap history) (CLE, PIT) not priced
chg Depth change Sun 8:30 AM: PIT RB4 → L. Nichols III
· 2 more
  • Depth change Sun 8:00 AM: CLE RB2 → D. Sampson
  • Depth change Sun 8:00 AM: CLE RB3 → J. McLaughlin
ATL @ TB Sun 1:00 PM ET
ATL 40% TB 60%
ModelMarket
Spread TB -3.1 TB -2.5 12h
Total 40.1 43.5
ML ATL +152 / TB -152 +120 / -142
Projection factors · 3 — nothing the model could price
  • TB defense: Christian Rozeboom (ILB) — unpriceable (backwards estimate) not priced
  • TB defense: Josh Hayes (CB) — no snap history not priced
  • ATL defense: Anterio Thompson (DT) — no snap history not priced
chg Depth change Sun 12:15 PM: ATL WR3 → Z. Branch
· 6 more
  • Depth change Sun 12:15 PM: ATL WR4 → C. Blair
  • Depth change Sat 8:00 AM: TB WR1 → C. Godwin Jr.
  • Depth change Sat 8:00 AM: TB WR2 → T. Hurst III
full feed on /nfl/depth
LAC @ LA Sun 4:05 PM ET
LAC 39% LA 61%
ModelMarket
Spread LA -3.3 LA -6.5 12h
Total 39.5 45.5
ML LAC +155 / LA -155 +220 / -270
Projection factors · 5 — Net: LAC +2.5, total +1.0
  • Rest edge LAC (LA 7d vs LAC 14d) LAC +1.5 spread
  • LA defense: Kobie Turner (DT, 60–85% snaps) IR (roster status) LAC +1.0 spreadtotal +1.0
  • LA defense: Myles Garrett (OLB, 82% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • LA defense: Eddie Walls III (OLB) — no snap history not priced
  • LA defense: Daniel Rickert (OLB) — no snap history not priced
KC @ DEN Sun 4:25 PM ET
KC 45% DEN 55%
ModelMarket
Spread DEN -1.4 KC -1.5 12h
Total 46.5 40.5
ML KC +122 / DEN -122 -118 / -102
Projection factors · 2 — Net: DEN +0.3, total +0.0
  • KC travel: 1 time zone DEN +0.3 spread
  • DEN defense: Matt Henningsen (DE) — no snap history not priced
chg Depth change Wed 9:00 PM: DEN RB1 back to J. Dobbins
· 7 more
  • Depth change Wed 9:00 PM: DEN RB2 → J. Coleman
  • Depth change Wed 9:00 PM: DEN RB3 → R. Harvey
  • Depth change Sat 8:00 AM: KC WR1 → X. Worthy
full feed on /nfl/depth
NE @ MIA Sun 4:25 PM ET
NE 56% MIA 44%
ModelMarket
Spread NE -1.7 NE -7.0 12h
Total 49.6 43.5
ML NE -126 / MIA +126 -325 / +260
Projection factors · 8 — Net: MIA +0.5, total +0.9
  • NE defense: Dell Pettus (FS, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) MIA +0.9 spreadtotal +0.9
  • Rest edge NE (MIA 7d vs NE 10d) NE +0.4 spread
  • MIA defense: Darrell Baker Jr. (CB, 84% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • NE defense: Harold Landry III (OLB, 75% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • 4 unpriceable absences (no snap history) (MIA, NE) not priced
chg Depth change Sun 12:00 PM: MIA WR5 → J. Wayne
PHI @ WAS Sun 8:20 PM ET
PHI 36% WAS 64%
ModelMarket
Spread WAS -4.3 WAS -6.0 12h
Total 46.9 40.5
ML PHI +175 / WAS -175 +205 / -250
Projection factors · 4 — Net: WAS +2.4, total +1.9
  • Rest edge WAS (WAS 13d vs PHI 6d) WAS +1.5 spread
  • PHI defense: Jakorian Bennett (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status); Andre' Sam (FS, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) WAS +1.4 spreadtotal +1.4
  • WAS defense: Ahkello Witherspoon (CB, <60% snaps) RESERVE (roster status) PHI +0.5 spreadtotal +0.5
  • PHI defense: Tucker Large (S) — no snap history not priced
chg Depth change Thu 8:00 AM: PHI RB2 → J. Blue
· 7 more
  • Depth change Wed 8:00 AM: PHI QB2 → J. Milton III
  • Depth change Tue 8:00 AM: PHI TE3 → E. Stowers
  • Depth change Sun 8:00 AM: PHI WR1 → M. Lemon
full feed on /nfl/depth
CHI @ SEA Mon 8:15 PM ET
CHI 36% SEA 64%
ModelMarket
Spread SEA -4.4 SEA -3.0 12h
Total 47.6 46.5
ML CHI +177 / SEA -177 +142 / -170
Projection factors · 9 — Net: SEA +0.2, total +0.0
  • CHI travel: 2 time zones SEA +0.6 spread
  • Rest edge CHI (SEA 8d vs CHI 11d) CHI +0.4 spread
  • SEA defense: Terrion Arnold (CB, 64% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • CHI defense: Dayo Odeyingbo (DE, 76% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • CHI defense: Coby Bryant (FS, 96% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • 4 unpriceable absences (no snap history) (CHI, SEA) not priced
chg Depth change Fri 8:00 AM: SEA RB1 → Z. Charbonnet
· 7 more
  • Depth change Fri 8:00 AM: SEA RB2 → E. Wilson
  • Depth change Sun 7:15 PM: SEA QB2 → J. Milroe
  • Depth change Sun 8:00 AM: SEA WR5 → I. Charles
full feed on /nfl/depth

Week 9 provisional · 15 games

Next week is shown for planning only — these ratings will move once this week's games are played.

JAX @ BAL Thu 8:15 PM ET
JAX 44% BAL 56%
ModelMarket
Spread BAL -1.8 BAL -3.0
Total 52.9 48.5
ML JAX +129 / BAL -129 +130 / -155
Projection factors · 9 — Net: BAL +2.0, total +3.0
  • JAX defense: Dane Jackson (CB, <60% snaps) RESERVE (roster status); Caleb Ransaw (FS, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) BAL +1.4 spreadtotal +1.4
  • BAL QB1 change: Tyler Huntley → Lamar Jackson BAL +1.1 spreadtotal +1.1
  • BAL defense: T.J. Tampa (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) JAX +0.5 spreadtotal +0.5
  • BAL defense: Tavius Robinson (OLB, 69% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • 5 unpriceable absences (no snap history) (BAL, JAX) not priced
chg Depth change Sun 8:00 AM: BAL QB1 → T. Huntley
· 1 more
  • Depth change Sun 8:00 AM: BAL QB2 → J. Fagnano
CIN @ ATL Sun 9:30 AM ET
CIN 56% ATL 44%
ModelMarket
Spread CIN -1.8 CIN -3.0
Total 46.4 49.5
ML CIN -128 / ATL +128 -170 / +142
Projection factors · 3 — Net: ATL +0.5, total +0.5
  • CIN defense: Ja'Sir Taylor (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) ATL +0.5 spreadtotal +0.5
  • CIN defense: Jalen Davis (CB, 66% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • ATL defense: Anterio Thompson (DT) — no snap history not priced
chg Depth change Wed 8:00 AM: CIN TE3 → C. Grandy
· 5 more
  • Depth change Tue 8:00 AM: CIN WR4 → M. Tinsley
  • Depth change Tue 8:00 AM: CIN WR5 → C. Young
  • Depth change Sun 1:00 PM: CIN WR3 → D. Meyers
full feed on /nfl/depth
DEN @ CAR Sun 1:00 PM ET
DEN 61% CAR 39%
ModelMarket
Spread DEN -3.3 —
Total 48.0 —
ML DEN -156 / CAR +156 —
Projection factors · 5 — Net: DEN +2.2, total +3.2
  • CAR defense: Mike Jackson (CB, ≥85% snaps) IR (roster status); Jaycee Horn (CB, ≥85% snaps) IR (roster status); Akayleb Evans (CB, <60% snaps) RESERVE (roster status) DEN +3.2 spreadtotal +3.2
  • DEN travel: 2 time zones CAR +0.6 spread
  • Rest edge CAR (CAR 10d vs DEN 7d) CAR +0.4 spread
  • CAR defense: Nic Scourton (OLB, 68% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • DEN defense: Matt Henningsen (DE) — no snap history not priced
chg Depth change Wed 9:00 PM: DEN RB1 back to J. Dobbins
· 4 more
  • Depth change Wed 9:00 PM: DEN RB2 → J. Coleman
  • Depth change Wed 9:00 PM: DEN RB3 → R. Harvey
  • Depth change Sun 12:00 PM: CAR RB2 → T. Etienne
full feed on /nfl/depth
DAL @ IND Sun 1:00 PM ET
DAL 55% IND 45%
ModelMarket
Spread DAL -1.4 DAL -4.5
Total 53.6 51.5
ML DAL -121 / IND +121 -230 / +190
Projection factors · 8 — Net: DAL +0.2, total +2.3
  • IND defense: Cameron Mitchell (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status); Reuben Lowery (FS, <60% snaps) RESERVE (roster status) DAL +1.4 spreadtotal +1.4
  • DAL defense: P.J. Locke (SS, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) IND +0.9 spreadtotal +0.9
  • DAL travel: 1 time zone IND +0.3 spread
  • IND defense: Arden Key (DE, 62% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • IND defense: Cam Taylor-Britt (CB, 61% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • DAL defense: Jalen Thompson (FS, 98% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • DAL defense: Devin Moore (CB) — no snap history not priced
  • DAL defense: Kelvin Gilliam (NT) — no snap history not priced
chg Depth change Sun 8:00 AM: DAL WR4 → J. Mingo
· 4 more
  • Depth change Sun 8:00 AM: DAL WR5 → C. Brown
  • Depth change Sat 8:00 AM: IND TE1 → W. Mallory
  • Depth change Sat 8:00 AM: IND TE2 → M. Alie-Cox
full feed on /nfl/depth
NYJ @ KC Sun 1:00 PM ET
NYJ 33% KC 67%
ModelMarket
Spread KC -5.5 KC -9.5
Total 47.5 43.5
ML NYJ +202 / KC -202 +380 / -500
Projection factors · 3 — Net: KC +0.3, total +0.0
  • NYJ travel: 1 time zone KC +0.3 spread
  • NYJ defense: Tre Brown (CB, 72% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • NYJ defense: VJ Payne (SS) — no snap history not priced
chg Depth change Mon 1:00 PM: NYJ WR2 → O. Cooper Jr.
· 8 more
  • Depth change Mon 1:00 PM: NYJ WR3 → A. Mitchell
  • Depth change Sun 12:00 PM: NYJ RB1 → B. Allen
  • Depth change Sun 12:00 PM: NYJ RB2 → I. Davis
full feed on /nfl/depth
DET @ MIA Sun 1:00 PM ET
DET 56% MIA 44%
ModelMarket
Spread DET -1.7 DET -7.0
Total 53.1 48.5
ML DET -126 / MIA +126 -410 / +320
Projection factors · 8 — Net: MIA +0.9, total +0.9
  • DET defense: Avonte Maddox (FS, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) MIA +0.9 spreadtotal +0.9
  • MIA defense: Darrell Baker Jr. (CB, 84% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • DET defense: Kerby Joseph (FS, 88% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • DET defense: Devin White (OLB) — unpriceable (thin cell) not priced
  • DET defense: Thomas Harper (FS) — unpriceable (backwards estimate) not priced
  • 3 unpriceable absences (no snap history) (DET, MIA) not priced
chg Depth change Sun 12:00 PM: MIA WR5 → J. Wayne
CLE @ NO Sun 1:00 PM ET
CLE 44% NO 56%
ModelMarket
Spread NO -1.7 NO -2.5
Total 40.8 43.5
ML CLE +126 / NO -126 +114 / -135
Projection factors · 5 — Net: NO +1.8, total +0.0
  • Rest edge NO (NO 14d vs CLE 7d) NO +1.5 spread
  • CLE travel: 1 time zone NO +0.3 spread
  • 3 unpriceable absences (no snap history) (CLE) not priced
chg Depth change Sun 8:00 AM: CLE RB2 → D. Sampson
· 1 more
  • Depth change Sun 8:00 AM: CLE RB3 → J. McLaughlin
NYG @ PHI Sun 1:00 PM ET
NYG 52% PHI 48%
ModelMarket
Spread NYG -0.5 NYG -1.5
Total 44.6 40.5
ML NYG -108 / PHI +108 -122 / +102
Projection factors · 3 — Net: NYG +2.9, total +1.4
  • Rest edge NYG (PHI 7d vs NYG 14d) NYG +1.5 spread
  • PHI defense: Jakorian Bennett (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status); Andre' Sam (FS, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) NYG +1.4 spreadtotal +1.4
  • PHI defense: Tucker Large (S) — no snap history not priced
chg Depth change Thu 8:00 AM: PHI RB2 → J. Blue
· 8 more
  • Depth change Wed 8:00 AM: PHI QB2 → J. Milton III
  • Depth change Wed 8:00 AM: NYG RB2 → D. Singletary
  • Depth change Tue 8:00 AM: PHI TE3 → E. Stowers
full feed on /nfl/depth
LA @ WAS Sun 1:00 PM ET
LA 49% WAS 51%
ModelMarket
Spread WAS -0.2 LA -5.5
Total 46.5 48.5
ML LA +103 / WAS -103 -230 / +190
Projection factors · 6 — Net: WAS +1.4, total +1.5
  • LA defense: Kobie Turner (DT, 60–85% snaps) IR (roster status) WAS +1.0 spreadtotal +1.0
  • LA travel: 3 time zones, body-clock kickoff WAS +0.9 spread
  • WAS defense: Ahkello Witherspoon (CB, <60% snaps) RESERVE (roster status) LA +0.5 spreadtotal +0.5
  • LA defense: Myles Garrett (OLB, 82% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • LA defense: Eddie Walls III (OLB) — no snap history not priced
  • LA defense: Daniel Rickert (OLB) — no snap history not priced
HOU @ LAC Sun 4:05 PM ET
HOU 61% LAC 39%
ModelMarket
Spread HOU -3.4 HOU -3.5
Total 39.4 42.5
ML HOU -157 / LAC +157 -185 / +154
Projection factors · 2 — Net: HOU +0.9, total +0.0
  • Rest edge HOU (LAC 7d vs HOU 14d) HOU +1.5 spread
  • HOU travel: 2 time zones LAC +0.6 spread
chg Depth change Thu 8:00 AM: HOU RB3 → E. Demercado
· 6 more
  • Depth change Thu 8:00 AM: HOU WR4 → T. Dell
  • Depth change Thu 8:00 AM: HOU RB4 → D. Ogunbowale
  • Depth change Thu 8:00 AM: HOU WR5 back to K. Boutte
full feed on /nfl/depth
LV @ SF Sun 4:05 PM ET
LV 27% SF 73%
ModelMarket
Spread SF -8.0 SF -9.5
Total 49.1 48.5
ML LV +270 / SF -270 +400 / -535
Projection factors · 4 — Net: SF +1.5, total +0.0
  • Rest edge SF (SF 14d vs LV 7d) SF +1.5 spread
  • 3 unpriceable absences (no snap history) (LV) not priced
chg Depth change Wed 8:00 AM: LV WR4 → D. Thornton Jr.
· 5 more
  • Depth change Tue 8:00 AM: SF WR3 → J. Watkins
  • Depth change Tue 8:00 AM: SF WR5 → C. Kirk
  • Depth change Sun 8:00 AM: SF WR1 → C. Kirk
full feed on /nfl/depth
GB @ NE Sun 4:25 PM ET
GB 45% NE 55%
ModelMarket
Spread NE -1.3 —
Total 47.5 —
ML GB +120 / NE -120 —
Projection factors · 9 — Net: GB +1.0, total +0.9
  • NE defense: Dell Pettus (FS, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) GB +0.9 spreadtotal +0.9
  • Rest edge GB (NE 7d vs GB 10d) GB +0.4 spread
  • GB travel: 1 time zone NE +0.3 spread
  • NE defense: Harold Landry III (OLB, 75% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • GB defense: Micah Parsons (OLB, 78% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • GB defense: Johnathan Baldwin (FS, 99% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • NE defense: Khalil Jacobs (ILB) — no snap history not priced
  • NE defense: Quintayvious Hutchins (OLB) — no snap history not priced
  • GB defense: Edgerrin Cooper (ILB) — unpriceable (backwards estimate) not priced
chg Depth change Thu 7:15 PM: GB TE2 → M. Redman
· 4 more
  • Depth change Thu 7:15 PM: GB TE3 → J. Whyle
  • Depth change Sun 8:00 AM: GB RB1 → J. Jacobs
  • Depth change Sun 8:00 AM: GB RB2 → M. Lloyd
full feed on /nfl/depth
ARI @ SEA Sun 4:25 PM ET
ARI 22% SEA 78%
ModelMarket
Spread SEA -10.2 SEA -10.5
Total 47.9 44.5
ML ARI +357 / SEA -357 +470 / -650
Projection factors · 7 — Net: SEA +1.6, total +1.3
  • ARI defense: Will Johnson (CB, ≥85% snaps) IR (roster status) SEA +1.3 spreadtotal +1.3
  • ARI travel: 1 time zone SEA +0.3 spread
  • SEA defense: Terrion Arnold (CB, 64% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • 4 unpriceable absences (no snap history) (ARI, SEA) not priced
chg Depth change Fri 8:00 AM: SEA RB1 → Z. Charbonnet
· 10 more
  • Depth change Fri 8:00 AM: SEA RB2 → E. Wilson
  • Depth change Tue 8:00 AM: ARI WR3 → R. Virgil
  • Depth change Tue 8:00 AM: ARI WR4 → S. Fehoko
full feed on /nfl/depth
TB @ CHI Sun 8:20 PM ET
TB 41% CHI 59%
ModelMarket
Spread CHI -2.6 CHI -6.0
Total 44.9 47.5
ML TB +143 / CHI -143 +215 / -265
Projection factors · 7 — Net: CHI +0.3, total +0.0
  • TB travel: 1 time zone CHI +0.3 spread
  • CHI defense: Dayo Odeyingbo (DE, 76% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • CHI defense: Coby Bryant (FS, 96% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • TB defense: Christian Rozeboom (ILB) — unpriceable (backwards estimate) not priced
  • 3 unpriceable absences (no snap history) (CHI, TB) not priced
chg Depth change Sat 8:00 AM: TB WR1 → C. Godwin Jr.
· 6 more
  • Depth change Sat 8:00 AM: CHI TE2 → S. Roush
  • Depth change Sat 8:00 AM: TB WR2 → T. Hurst III
  • Depth change Sat 8:00 AM: CHI TE3 → C. Kmet
full feed on /nfl/depth
BUF @ MIN Mon 8:15 PM ET
BUF 44% MIN 56%
ModelMarket
Spread MIN -1.7 BUF -2.5
Total 48.4 47.5
ML BUF +126 / MIN -126 -142 / +120
Projection factors · 4 — Net: MIN +1.3, total +1.0
  • BUF defense: Jordan Hancock (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status); Dorian Strong (CB, <60% snaps) NFI (roster status) MIN +1.0 spreadtotal +1.0
  • BUF travel: 1 time zone MIN +0.3 spread
  • BUF defense: C.J. Gardner-Johnson (SS, 90% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • BUF defense: Zane Durant (DE) — no snap history not priced
chg Depth change Tue 8:00 AM: MIN RB1 → J. Mason
· 2 more
  • Depth change Tue 8:00 AM: MIN RB2 → A. Jones
  • Depth change Sun 11:45 AM: MIN RB3 → D. Dallas

Market columns are shown for comparison only. They are never blended into the model (SPEC-NFL §8). Each is the latest line we hold that was captured before kickoff — the week's opener until a later fetch lands — with its age shown when it is more than six hours old; a game with no pregame capture reads “—”. Moneylines are vig-free fair prices derived from the model's own win probability — model-derived fair values, not betting advice.