NFL Game Projections
Two-week outlook. Spread, total, win probability and vig-free moneylines from the fitted empirical margin distribution — key numbers priced, not smoothed. Model g2-v2 · updated 5h ago. In-season rating blend: 1 week(s) played → observed EPA carries 17% (k_rating 5.0).
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Week 2 · 16 games
DET @ BUF
Thu 8:15 PM ET
DET 42%
BUF 58%
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | BUF -2.3 | BUF -4.5 8h |
| Total | 51.7 | 53.5 |
| ML | DET +138 / BUF -138 | +180 / -218 |
chg Depth change detected Tue 1:00 PM: BUF WR5 → S. Bell
chg Depth change detected Sun 9:00 PM: BUF WR5 → G. Dortch
chg Depth change detected Sun 7:15 PM: BUF WR5 → S. Bell
Projection factors
No situational adjustments
CAR @ ATL
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CAR 40%
ATL 60%
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | ATL -3.1 | CAR -1.5 8h |
| Total | 42.3 | 44.5 |
| ML | CAR +153 / ATL -153 | -125 / +105 |
chg Depth change detected Sun 9:00 PM: CAR WR4 → J. Horn Jr.
chg Depth change detected Sun 9:00 PM: CAR WR5 → B. Tremayne
chg Depth change detected Sun 7:15 PM: CAR WR4 → J. Metchie III
Projection factors
- ATL QB1 change: Cooper Rush → Michael Penix Jr. ATL +1.7 spread, total +1.7
Net vs neutral: ATL +1.7, total +1.7
NO @ BAL
Sun 1:00 PM ET
NO 22%
BAL 78%
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | BAL -10.0 | BAL -8.5 8h |
| Total | 44.5 | 46.5 |
| ML | NO +347 / BAL -347 | +320 / -410 |
chg Depth change detected Tue 1:00 PM: NO RB4 → A. Estimé
chg Depth change detected Tue 1:00 PM: BAL WR5 → E. Sarratt
chg Depth change detected Tue 1:00 PM: NO WR5 → J. Tyson
Projection factors
- NO travel: 1 time zone BAL +0.3 spread
Net vs neutral: BAL +0.3, total +0.0
MIN @ CHI
Sun 1:00 PM ET
MIN 47%
CHI 53%
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | CHI -0.9 | CHI -5.5 8h |
| Total | 43.9 | 49.5 |
| ML | MIN +113 / CHI -113 | +195 / -238 |
chg Depth change detected Mon 9:00 PM: CHI QB2 → C. Keenum
chg Depth change detected Mon 9:00 PM: MIN RB3 → D. Dallas
chg Depth change detected Mon 6:15 PM: CHI QB2 → T. Bagent
Projection factors
No situational adjustments
CIN @ HOU
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CIN 42%
HOU 58%
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | HOU -2.4 | HOU -3.0 8h |
| Total | 48.7 | 46.5 |
| ML | CIN +138 / HOU -138 | +124 / -148 |
chg Depth change detected Tue 1:00 PM: HOU WR2 → X. Hutchinson
chg Depth change detected Tue 1:00 PM: HOU WR3 → K. Boutte
Projection factors
- CIN travel: 1 time zone HOU +0.3 spread
Net vs neutral: HOU +0.3, total +0.0
PIT @ NE
Sun 1:00 PM ET
PIT 43%
NE 57%
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | NE -1.9 | NE -5.5 8h |
| Total | 43.5 | 42.5 |
| ML | PIT +130 / NE -130 | +190 / -230 |
chg Depth change detected Mon 9:00 PM: NE WR5 → A. Brown
chg Depth change detected Mon 6:15 PM: NE WR5 → E. Chism III
chg Depth change detected Mon 6:00 PM: NE WR5 → A. Brown
Projection factors
- Rest edge NE (NE 11d vs PIT 7d) NE +0.8 spread
Net vs neutral: NE +0.8, total +0.0
GB @ NYJ
Sun 1:00 PM ET
GB 50%
NYJ 50%
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | NYJ -0.1 | GB -4.5 8h |
| Total | 45.7 | 44.5 |
| ML | GB +101 / NYJ -101 | -205 / +170 |
chg Depth change detected Tue 1:00 PM: GB WR5 → B. Melton
chg Depth change detected Mon 9:00 PM: NYJ RB4 → C. Trayanum
chg Depth change detected Mon 9:00 PM: GB WR5 → B. Melton
Projection factors
- GB travel: 1 time zone NYJ +0.3 spread
Net vs neutral: NYJ +0.3, total +0.0
CLE @ TB
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CLE 33%
TB 67%
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | TB -5.7 | TB -8.5 8h |
| Total | 39.9 | 40.5 |
| ML | CLE +207 / TB -207 | +320 / -410 |
chg Depth change detected Mon 9:00 PM: TB WR3 → T. Hurst III
chg Depth change detected Mon 9:00 PM: TB RB3 → J. Williams
chg Depth change detected Mon 9:00 PM: TB WR4 → T. Johnson
Projection factors
No situational adjustments
PHI @ TEN
Sun 1:00 PM ET
PHI 67%
TEN 33%
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | PHI -5.7 | PHI -7.0 8h |
| Total | 42.0 | 39.5 |
| ML | PHI -207 / TEN +207 | -305 / +245 |
chg Depth change detected Mon 9:00 PM: PHI WR5 → D. Cooper
chg Depth change detected Mon 6:15 PM: PHI WR5 → E. Moore
chg Depth change detected Mon 6:00 PM: PHI WR5 → D. Cooper
Projection factors
- PHI travel: 1 time zone TEN +0.3 spread
Net vs neutral: TEN +0.3, total +0.0
JAX @ DEN
Sun 4:05 PM ET
JAX 53%
DEN 47%
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | JAX -0.9 | DEN -2.5 8h |
| Total | 45.7 | 44.5 |
| ML | JAX -113 / DEN +113 | +114 / -135 |
chg Depth change detected Tue 1:00 PM: JAX QB2 → Q. Ewers
chg Depth change detected Tue 1:00 PM: JAX WR4 → J. Cameron
chg Depth change detected Tue 1:00 PM: JAX WR5 → T. Hunter
Projection factors
- JAX travel: 2 time zones DEN +0.6 spread
Net vs neutral: DEN +0.6, total +0.0
LV @ LAC
Sun 4:05 PM ET
LV 51%
LAC 49%
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | LV -0.4 | LAC -7.0 8h |
| Total | 40.8 | 43.5 |
| ML | LV -106 / LAC +106 | +250 / -310 |
chg Depth change detected Tue 1:00 PM: LV RB2 → M. Washington Jr.
chg Depth change detected Sun 1:00 PM: LV TE3 → C. Myarick
chg Depth change detected Sat 8:00 AM: LV TE1 → M. Mayer
Projection factors
No situational adjustments
SEA @ ARI
Sun 4:25 PM ET
SEA 64%
ARI 36%
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | SEA -4.2 | SEA -4.5 8h |
| Total | 45.0 | 41.5 |
| ML | SEA -174 / ARI +174 | -225 / +185 |
chg Depth change detected Tue 1:00 PM: ARI WR5 → S. Fehoko
chg Depth change detected Mon 9:00 PM: SEA WR4 → M. Foster Jr
chg Depth change detected Mon 9:00 PM: SEA WR5 → I. Charles
Projection factors
- Rest edge SEA (ARI 7d vs SEA 11d) SEA +0.8 spread
- SEA travel: 1 time zone ARI +0.3 spread
Net vs neutral: SEA +0.5, total +0.0
WAS @ DAL
Sun 4:25 PM ET
WAS 35%
DAL 65%
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | DAL -4.7 | DAL -3.5 8h |
| Total | 53.7 | 50.5 |
| ML | WAS +184 / DAL -184 | +185 / -225 |
chg Depth change detected Tue 1:00 PM: WAS WR4 → D. Brown
chg Depth change detected Tue 1:00 PM: WAS WR5 → J. Lane
chg Depth change detected Mon 9:00 PM: WAS WR4 → D. Brown
Projection factors
- WAS travel: 1 time zone DAL +0.3 spread
Net vs neutral: DAL +0.3, total +0.0
MIA @ SF
Sun 4:25 PM ET
MIA 32%
SF 68%
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | SF -5.9 | SF -12.5 8h |
| Total | 48.3 | 45.5 |
| ML | MIA +211 / SF -211 | +625 / -950 |
chg Depth change detected Tue 1:00 PM: MIA WR4 → K. Coleman Jr.
chg Depth change detected Tue 1:00 PM: MIA WR5 → J. Tolbert
chg Depth change detected Mon 9:00 PM: SF RB3 → I. Guerendo
Projection factors
- Rest edge SF (SF 10d vs MIA 7d) SF +0.4 spread
- MIA travel: 3 time zones SF +0.9 spread
Net vs neutral: SF +1.3, total +0.0
IND @ KC
Sun 8:20 PM ET
IND 28%
KC 72%
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | KC -7.8 | KC -6.5 8h |
| Total | 45.2 | 47.5 |
| ML | IND +262 / KC -262 | +245 / -305 |
chg Depth change detected Mon 7:15 PM: KC TE3 → J. Briningstool
Projection factors
- IND travel: 1 time zone KC +0.3 spread
Net vs neutral: KC +0.3, total +0.0
NYG @ LA
Mon 8:15 PM ET
NYG 41%
LA 59%
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | LA -2.8 | LA -7.0 8h |
| Total | 46.9 | 48.5 |
| ML | NYG +146 / LA -146 | +280 / -355 |
chg Depth change detected Tue 1:00 PM: NYG RB2 → D. Singletary
chg Depth change detected Tue 1:00 PM: NYG RB3 → T. Tracy Jr.
chg Depth change detected Tue 1:00 PM: NYG RB4 → N. Harris
Projection factors
- Rest edge LA (LA 11d vs NYG 8d) LA +0.4 spread
- NYG travel: 3 time zones LA +0.9 spread
Net vs neutral: LA +1.3, total +0.0
Week 3 provisional · 16 games
Next week is shown for planning only — these ratings will move once this week's games are played.
ATL @ GB
Thu 8:15 PM ET
ATL 35%
GB 65%
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | GB -4.9 | — |
| Total | 42.4 | — |
| ML | ATL +189 / GB -189 | — |
chg Depth change detected Tue 1:00 PM: GB WR5 → B. Melton
chg Depth change detected Mon 9:00 PM: GB WR5 → B. Melton
chg Depth change detected Mon 6:15 PM: GB WR5 → J. Michael Sturdivant
Projection factors
- ATL travel: 1 time zone GB +0.3 spread
- ATL QB1 change: Cooper Rush → Michael Penix Jr. ATL +1.7 spread, total +1.7
Net vs neutral: ATL +1.4, total +1.7
LAC @ BUF
Sun 1:00 PM ET
LAC 25%
BUF 75%
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | BUF -8.9 | — |
| Total | 46.9 | — |
| ML | LAC +300 / BUF -300 | — |
chg Depth change detected Tue 1:00 PM: BUF WR5 → S. Bell
chg Depth change detected Sun 9:00 PM: BUF WR5 → G. Dortch
chg Depth change detected Sun 7:15 PM: BUF WR5 → S. Bell
Projection factors
- Rest edge BUF (BUF 10d vs LAC 7d) BUF +0.4 spread
- LAC travel: 3 time zones, body-clock kickoff BUF +0.9 spread
Net vs neutral: BUF +1.3, total +0.0
CAR @ CLE
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CAR 46%
CLE 54%
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | CLE -1.2 | — |
| Total | 42.0 | — |
| ML | CAR +119 / CLE -119 | — |
chg Depth change detected Sun 9:00 PM: CAR WR4 → J. Horn Jr.
chg Depth change detected Sun 9:00 PM: CAR WR5 → B. Tremayne
chg Depth change detected Sun 7:15 PM: CAR WR4 → J. Metchie III
Projection factors
No situational adjustments
NYJ @ DET
Sun 1:00 PM ET
NYJ 30%
DET 70%
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | DET -6.6 | — |
| Total | 47.0 | — |
| ML | NYJ +228 / DET -228 | — |
chg Depth change detected Mon 9:00 PM: NYJ RB4 → C. Trayanum
chg Depth change detected Mon 6:15 PM: NYJ RB4 → K. Nwangwu
chg Depth change detected Mon 6:00 PM: NYJ RB4 → C. Trayanum
Projection factors
- Rest edge DET (DET 10d vs NYJ 7d) DET +0.4 spread
Net vs neutral: DET +0.4, total +0.0
HOU @ IND
Sun 1:00 PM ET
HOU 56%
IND 44%
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | HOU -1.8 | — |
| Total | 45.4 | — |
| ML | HOU -128 / IND +128 | — |
chg Depth change detected Tue 1:00 PM: HOU WR2 → X. Hutchinson
chg Depth change detected Tue 1:00 PM: HOU WR3 → K. Boutte
Projection factors
- HOU travel: 1 time zone IND +0.3 spread
Net vs neutral: IND +0.3, total +0.0
NE @ JAX
Sun 1:00 PM ET
NE 37%
JAX 63%
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | JAX -4.1 | — |
| Total | 47.8 | — |
| ML | NE +171 / JAX -171 | — |
chg Depth change detected Tue 1:00 PM: JAX QB2 → Q. Ewers
chg Depth change detected Tue 1:00 PM: JAX WR4 → J. Cameron
chg Depth change detected Tue 1:00 PM: JAX WR5 → T. Hunter
Projection factors
No situational adjustments
KC @ MIA
Sun 1:00 PM ET
KC 55%
MIA 45%
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | KC -1.4 | — |
| Total | 46.7 | — |
| ML | KC -121 / MIA +121 | — |
chg Depth change detected Tue 1:00 PM: MIA WR4 → K. Coleman Jr.
chg Depth change detected Tue 1:00 PM: MIA WR5 → J. Tolbert
chg Depth change detected Mon 9:00 PM: MIA WR4 → K. Coleman Jr.
Projection factors
- KC travel: 1 time zone MIA +0.3 spread
Net vs neutral: MIA +0.3, total +0.0
TEN @ NYG
Sun 1:00 PM ET
TEN 29%
NYG 71%
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | NYG -7.3 | — |
| Total | 45.0 | — |
| ML | TEN +247 / NYG -247 | — |
chg Depth change detected Tue 1:00 PM: NYG RB2 → D. Singletary
chg Depth change detected Tue 1:00 PM: NYG RB3 → T. Tracy Jr.
chg Depth change detected Tue 1:00 PM: NYG RB4 → N. Harris
Projection factors
- TEN travel: 1 time zone NYG +0.3 spread
Net vs neutral: NYG +0.3, total +0.0
CIN @ PIT
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CIN 44%
PIT 56%
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | PIT -1.7 | — |
| Total | 45.6 | — |
| ML | CIN +127 / PIT -127 | — |
chg Depth change detected Mon 1:00 PM: PIT TE1 → D. Washington
chg Depth change detected Mon 1:00 PM: PIT TE2 → P. Freiermuth
Projection factors
No situational adjustments
SEA @ WAS
Sun 1:00 PM ET
SEA 59%
WAS 41%
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | SEA -2.7 | — |
| Total | 48.2 | — |
| ML | SEA -144 / WAS +144 | — |
chg Depth change detected Tue 1:00 PM: WAS WR4 → D. Brown
chg Depth change detected Tue 1:00 PM: WAS WR5 → J. Lane
chg Depth change detected Mon 9:00 PM: WAS WR4 → D. Brown
Projection factors
- SEA travel: 3 time zones, body-clock kickoff WAS +0.9 spread
Net vs neutral: WAS +0.9, total +0.0
ARI @ SF
Sun 4:05 PM ET
ARI 31%
SF 69%
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | SF -6.5 | — |
| Total | 45.7 | — |
| ML | ARI +227 / SF -227 | — |
chg Depth change detected Tue 1:00 PM: ARI WR5 → S. Fehoko
chg Depth change detected Mon 9:00 PM: SF RB3 → I. Guerendo
chg Depth change detected Mon 6:15 PM: SF RB3 → J. James
Projection factors
- ARI travel: 1 time zone SF +0.3 spread
Net vs neutral: SF +0.3, total +0.0
MIN @ TB
Sun 4:05 PM ET
MIN 50%
TB 50%
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | MIN -0.1 | — |
| Total | 40.7 | — |
| ML | MIN -101 / TB +101 | — |
chg Depth change detected Mon 9:00 PM: TB WR3 → T. Hurst III
chg Depth change detected Mon 9:00 PM: TB RB3 → J. Williams
chg Depth change detected Mon 9:00 PM: MIN RB3 → D. Dallas
Projection factors
- MIN travel: 1 time zone TB +0.3 spread
Net vs neutral: TB +0.3, total +0.0
BAL @ DAL
Sun 4:25 PM ET
BAL 58%
DAL 42%
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | BAL -2.3 | — |
| Total | 54.6 | — |
| ML | BAL -137 / DAL +137 | — |
chg Depth change detected Tue 1:00 PM: BAL WR5 → E. Sarratt
chg Depth change detected Mon 9:00 PM: BAL WR4 → C. Moore
chg Depth change detected Mon 9:00 PM: BAL WR5 → L. Wester
Projection factors
- BAL travel: 1 time zone DAL +0.3 spread
Net vs neutral: DAL +0.3, total +0.0
LV @ NO
Sun 4:25 PM ET
LV 50%
NO 50%
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | PK | — |
| Total | 39.7 | — |
| ML | LV -100 / NO +100 | — |
chg Depth change detected Tue 1:00 PM: LV RB2 → M. Washington Jr.
chg Depth change detected Tue 1:00 PM: NO RB4 → A. Estimé
chg Depth change detected Tue 1:00 PM: NO WR5 → J. Tyson
Projection factors
- LV travel: 2 time zones NO +0.6 spread
Net vs neutral: NO +0.6, total +0.0
LA @ DEN
Sun 8:20 PM ET
LA 41%
DEN 59%
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | DEN -2.8 | — |
| Total | 43.2 | — |
| ML | LA +146 / DEN -146 | — |
Projection factors
- LA travel: 1 time zone DEN +0.3 spread
Net vs neutral: DEN +0.3, total +0.0
PHI @ CHI
Mon 8:15 PM ET
PHI 46%
CHI 54%
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | CHI -1.3 | — |
| Total | 46.8 | — |
| ML | PHI +119 / CHI -119 | — |
chg Depth change detected Mon 9:00 PM: CHI QB2 → C. Keenum
chg Depth change detected Mon 9:00 PM: PHI WR5 → D. Cooper
chg Depth change detected Mon 6:15 PM: CHI QB2 → T. Bagent
Projection factors
- PHI travel: 1 time zone CHI +0.3 spread
Net vs neutral: CHI +0.3, total +0.0
Market columns are shown for comparison only. They are never blended into the model (SPEC-NFL §8). Each is the latest line we hold that was captured before kickoff — the week's opener until a later fetch lands — with its age shown when it is more than six hours old; a game with no pregame capture reads “—”. Moneylines are vig-free fair prices derived from the model's own win probability — model-derived fair values, not betting advice.