⚾ ChalkProof

HRs & Ks

model fair values · 2026-09-15 · projections 19m ago

Model-derived home-run and strikeout probabilities for today's slates, from the same projection inputs (park, weather, opposing pitcher). Unconfirmed lineups/starters are dimmed and marked *.

Batter home runs P(≥1 HR today)

PlayerTeamOppSP faced HR todayFair odds
Ben Rice NYY MIN Bailey Ober 19.5% +414
Carter Jensen KC HOU Hunter Brown 19.5% +414
Zach Neto LAA SEA Logan Gilbert 19.5% +414
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD COL Kyle Freeland 19.5% +414
Pete Alonso BAL NYM Sean Manaea 18.9% +428
Elly De La Cruz CIN LAD Yoshinobu Yamamoto 18.9% +428
Randy Arozarena SEA LAA Ryan Johnson 18.9% +428
Mickey Gasper BOS TEX Jacob deGrom 18.9% +428
Randal Grichuk CWS CLE Foster Griffin 18.9% +428
Cody Bellinger NYY MIN Bailey Ober 18.5% +439
Yordan Alvarez HOU KC Michael Wacha 18.5% +442
Coby Mayo BAL NYM Sean Manaea 18.4% +443
Matt Olson ATL CHC Kevin Gausman 18.4% +443
Manny Machado SD COL Kyle Freeland 18.4% +443
Mookie Betts LAD CIN Rhett Lowder 18.3% +446
Miguel Vargas CWS CLE Foster Griffin 18.2% +451
Jonathan Aranda TB OAK Jack Perkins 18.0% +455
Adael Amador COL SD Walker Buehler 17.9% +457
Luis García Jr. NYY MIN Bailey Ober 17.9% +458
Cal Raleigh SEA LAA Ryan Johnson 17.9% +458
Kyle Tucker LAD CIN Rhett Lowder 17.9% +458
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC ATL Martín Pérez 17.9% +460
Jackson Chourio MIL PIT Lake Bachar 17.6% +469
Garrett Mitchell MIL PIT Lake Bachar 17.5% +470
Lawrence Butler OAK TB Jack Perkins 17.5% +471
Junior Caminero TB OAK Jack Perkins 17.5% +472
Michael Harris II ATL CHC Kevin Gausman 17.4% +473
Eugenio Suárez CIN LAD Yoshinobu Yamamoto 17.4% +475
Jake Bauers MIL PIT Lake Bachar 17.4% +475
Victor Mesa Jr. TB OAK Jack Perkins 17.4% +475
Dominic Canzone SEA LAA Ryan Johnson 17.4% +475
Jackson Merrill SD COL Kyle Freeland 17.3% +479
Isaac Paredes HOU KC Michael Wacha 17.2% +482
Heliot Ramos NYY MIN Bailey Ober 17.0% +489
Drake Baldwin ATL CHC Kevin Gausman 16.9% +490
Josue De Paula LAD CIN Rhett Lowder 16.9% +491
Kazuma Okamoto TOR DET Drew Anderson 16.9% +493
Max Muncy LAD CIN Rhett Lowder 16.9% +493
Brice Turang MIL PIT Lake Bachar 16.7% +497
William Contreras MIL PIT Lake Bachar 16.7% +497
Riley Greene DET TOR Braydon Fisher 16.7% +498
Corbin Carroll AZ MIA Janson Junk 16.6% +502
Munetaka Murakami CWS CLE Foster Griffin 16.6% +503
Mickey Moniak COL SD Walker Buehler 16.4% +511
J.P. Crawford SEA LAA Ryan Johnson 16.2% +519
Lars Nootbaar AZ MIA Janson Junk 16.0% +525
Nolan Arenado AZ MIA Janson Junk 15.9% +528
Kevin McGonigle DET TOR Braydon Fisher 15.9% +530
Alex Bregman CHC ATL Martín Pérez 15.9% +530
Moisés Ballesteros LAA SEA Logan Gilbert 15.8% +531
Josh Smith TOR DET Drew Anderson 15.8% +532
Ty France SD COL Kyle Freeland 15.8% +533
Francisco Lindor NYM BAL Shane Baz 15.8% +535
Sal Stewart CIN LAD Yoshinobu Yamamoto 15.7% +538
Lazaro Montes SEA LAA Ryan Johnson 15.7% +538
Juan Soto NYM BAL Shane Baz 15.6% +541
Kyle Schwarber PHI WSH Jackson Kent 15.6% +541
Richie Palacios TB OAK Jack Perkins 15.6% +542
Ryan O'Hearn PIT MIL Jacob Misiorowski 15.5% +545
Jake Burger TEX BOS Patrick Sandoval 15.5% +546
Chase Meidroth CWS CLE Foster Griffin 15.5% +547
Andrés Chaparro WSH PHI Cristopher Sánchez 15.4% +548
Liam Hicks TB OAK Jack Perkins 15.4% +548
Cam Smith HOU KC Michael Wacha 15.4% +551
Carlos Jorge CIN LAD Yoshinobu Yamamoto 15.2% +557
Roman Anthony BOS TEX Jacob deGrom 15.0% +567
JJ Bleday CIN LAD Yoshinobu Yamamoto 14.8% +575
Héctor Rodríguez CIN LAD Yoshinobu Yamamoto 14.8% +576
Donovan Walton OAK TB Jack Perkins 14.7% +580
Justin Foscue TEX BOS Patrick Sandoval 14.7% +583
Brett Bateman TOR DET Drew Anderson 14.6% +586
Wilyer Abreu BOS TEX Jacob deGrom 14.5% +589
Yandy Díaz TB OAK Jack Perkins 14.5% +591
Corey Seager TEX BOS Patrick Sandoval 14.3% +598
Teoscar Hernández LAD CIN Rhett Lowder 14.3% +600
Mike Trout LAA SEA Logan Gilbert 14.2% +604
Christian Encarnacion-Strand BAL NYM Sean Manaea 14.1% +608
Alejandro Kirk TOR DET Drew Anderson 14.1% +608
Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL CHC Kevin Gausman 14.1% +610
Spencer Jones NYY MIN Bailey Ober 14.0% +615
John Rave KC HOU Hunter Brown 13.8% +623
Jeremy Peña HOU KC Michael Wacha 13.8% +626
George Springer TOR DET Drew Anderson 13.8% +626
Graham Pauley* MIA AZ Michael Soroka 13.8% +627
Vaughn Grissom LAA SEA Logan Gilbert 13.7% +628
Adley Rutschman BOS TEX Jacob deGrom 13.7% +629
Cole Carrigg COL SD Walker Buehler 13.7% +630
Jac Caglianone KC HOU Hunter Brown 13.7% +631
Austin Hays SD COL Kyle Freeland 13.7% +631
Owen Caissie* MIA AZ Michael Soroka 13.5% +639
Juan Brito CIN LAD Yoshinobu Yamamoto 13.4% +644
Oneil Cruz PIT MIL Jacob Misiorowski 13.3% +649
Willson Contreras BOS TEX Jacob deGrom 13.3% +654
Christian Yelich MIL PIT Lake Bachar 13.2% +659
Yohandy Morales WSH PHI Cristopher Sánchez 13.1% +664
Zack Gelof OAK TB Jack Perkins 13.1% +664
Leo Bernal STL SF Blade Tidwell 13.1% +664
Jarren Duran BOS TEX Jacob deGrom 13.1% +666
Wyatt Langford TEX BOS Patrick Sandoval 13.0% +666
Julio Rodríguez SEA LAA Ryan Johnson 13.0% +668
Josh Lowe LAA SEA Logan Gilbert 13.0% +669
Bobby Witt Jr. KC HOU Hunter Brown 12.8% +679
Jake McCarthy COL SD Walker Buehler 12.8% +679
Brandon Lowe PIT MIL Jacob Misiorowski 12.8% +680
Miguel Amaya CHC ATL Martín Pérez 12.8% +681
Trea Turner PHI WSH Jackson Kent 12.8% +683
Nathan Lukes TOR DET Drew Anderson 12.7% +686
Rece Hinds BAL NYM Sean Manaea 12.7% +688
Denzer Guzman LAA SEA Logan Gilbert 12.7% +688
Cole Young SEA LAA Ryan Johnson 12.7% +689
Daulton Varsho HOU KC Michael Wacha 12.7% +689
Josh Bell MIN NYY Max Fried 12.6% +692
Drew Gilbert SF STL Andre Pallante 12.6% +692
Mike Yastrzemski ATL CHC Kevin Gausman 12.6% +692
Luis Campusano SD COL Kyle Freeland 12.5% +698
Christian Walker HOU KC Michael Wacha 12.4% +705
Jordan Walker STL SF Blade Tidwell 12.4% +705
José Caballero NYY MIN Bailey Ober 12.4% +709
Vinnie Pasquantino KC HOU Hunter Brown 12.1% +724
Kyle Karros COL SD Walker Buehler 12.1% +725
Seiya Suzuki CHC ATL Martín Pérez 12.1% +727
Tyrone Taylor CHC ATL Martín Pérez 12.1% +728
Ketel Marte AZ MIA Janson Junk 12.0% +732
Kody Clemens MIN NYY Max Fried 12.0% +736
Brett Sullivan COL SD Walker Buehler 12.0% +736
Zac Veen COL SD Walker Buehler 11.9% +738
Spencer Torkelson DET TOR Braydon Fisher 11.9% +740
Alec Burleson STL SF Blade Tidwell 11.9% +743
Gabriel Moreno AZ MIA Janson Junk 11.9% +743
Jake Rogers CWS CLE Foster Griffin 11.9% +743
Joe Mack* MIA AZ Michael Soroka 11.8% +744
Brenton Doyle CWS CLE Foster Griffin 11.8% +747
Jo Adell CLE CWS Chris Murphy 11.7% +753
Matt McLain CIN LAD Yoshinobu Yamamoto 11.7% +754
Griffin Conine* MIA AZ Michael Soroka 11.7% +755
Yainer Diaz HOU KC Michael Wacha 11.7% +756
Bryce Eldridge SF STL Andre Pallante 11.7% +758
Freddie Freeman LAD CIN Rhett Lowder 11.7% +758
Bryan Torres STL SF Blade Tidwell 11.6% +762
Carlos Cortes OAK TB Jack Perkins 11.6% +765
Gunnar Henderson BAL NYM Sean Manaea 11.5% +768
TJ Rumfield COL SD Walker Buehler 11.5% +771
Danny Jansen TEX BOS Patrick Sandoval 11.4% +774
Shea Langeliers OAK TB Jack Perkins 11.4% +774
Henry Bolte OAK TB Jack Perkins 11.4% +778
Heriberto Hernández* MIA AZ Michael Soroka 11.4% +778
Anthony Volpe NYY MIN Bailey Ober 11.3% +784
Kyle Stowers* MIA AZ Michael Soroka 11.3% +784
Yohel Pozo BAL NYM Sean Manaea 11.2% +790
Joey Ortiz MIL PIT Lake Bachar 11.2% +793
LaMonte Wade Jr. HOU KC Michael Wacha 11.1% +802
Max Clark DET TOR Braydon Fisher 11.0% +806
Bryce Harper PHI WSH Jackson Kent 11.0% +808
Jordan Lawlar AZ MIA Janson Junk 10.8% +825
Eduardo Valencia DET TOR Braydon Fisher 10.7% +833
Tommy Edman LAD CIN Rhett Lowder 10.7% +834
George Lombard Jr. NYY MIN Bailey Ober 10.7% +836
Will Banfield CIN LAD Yoshinobu Yamamoto 10.6% +839
Austin Riley ATL CHC Kevin Gausman 10.6% +846
Derek Hill PHI WSH Jackson Kent 10.5% +850
Brady House WSH PHI Cristopher Sánchez 10.4% +862
J.T. Realmuto PHI WSH Jackson Kent 10.3% +867
Dylan Crews WSH PHI Cristopher Sánchez 10.2% +877
Andrew Pinckney WSH PHI Cristopher Sánchez 10.2% +883
Jeremiah Jackson BAL NYM Sean Manaea 10.1% +886
Harry Ford WSH PHI Cristopher Sánchez 10.1% +888
Michael Massey KC HOU Hunter Brown 10.1% +888
Brooks Lee MIN NYY Max Fried 10.1% +889
Jeff McNeil OAK TB Jack Perkins 10.1% +890
Thomas Saggese STL SF Blade Tidwell 10.1% +895
Rafael Flores Jr. PIT MIL Jacob Misiorowski 10.0% +900
Nathaniel Lowe CLE CWS Chris Murphy 10.0% +904
Brock Rodden SEA LAA Ryan Johnson 10.0% +904
Jose Altuve HOU KC Michael Wacha 9.9% +907
Jonah Heim OAK TB Jack Perkins 9.9% +909
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR DET Drew Anderson 9.8% +915
Christian Moore LAA SEA Logan Gilbert 9.8% +920
Bryan De La Cruz PHI WSH Jackson Kent 9.7% +927
Pedro Ramírez CHC ATL Martín Pérez 9.7% +929
Ezequiel Duran TEX BOS Patrick Sandoval 9.7% +930
Carson Benge NYM BAL Shane Baz 9.7% +932
Matt Shaw CHC ATL Martín Pérez 9.7% +932
Kaelen Culpepper MIN NYY Max Fried 9.7% +934
Tristan Peters CWS CLE Foster Griffin 9.6% +937
Samad Taylor SD COL Kyle Freeland 9.6% +939
Pavin Smith AZ MIA Janson Junk 9.6% +943
Brett Baty NYM BAL Shane Baz 9.6% +945
Elias Díaz TEX BOS Patrick Sandoval 9.5% +948
A.J. Ewing NYM BAL Shane Baz 9.5% +948
Kyle Isbel KC HOU Hunter Brown 9.5% +954
Wade Meckler LAA SEA Logan Gilbert 9.5% +956
Travis Bazzana CLE CWS Chris Murphy 9.5% +957
Cedric Mullins TB OAK Jack Perkins 9.4% +961
Ozzie Albies ATL CHC Kevin Gausman 9.4% +964
Colton Cowser BAL NYM Sean Manaea 9.4% +964
Michael Busch CHC ATL Martín Pérez 9.3% +973
Brewer Hicklen ATL CHC Kevin Gausman 9.2% +990
Hao-Yu Lee DET TOR Braydon Fisher 9.2% +990
Ali Sánchez NYY MIN Bailey Ober 9.2% +992
Andrés Giménez TOR DET Drew Anderson 9.1% +1002
Nick Sogard BOS TEX Jacob deGrom 9.1% +1003
Jakob Marsee* MIA AZ Michael Soroka 9.0% +1006
Bryan Reynolds PIT MIL Jacob Misiorowski 9.0% +1008
Hunter Feduccia LAD CIN Rhett Lowder 8.9% +1019
Jorge Mateo TB OAK Jack Perkins 8.9% +1022
Caleb Durbin BOS TEX Jacob deGrom 8.8% +1031
Iván Herrera STL SF Blade Tidwell 8.8% +1037
Nathan Church STL SF Blade Tidwell 8.8% +1038
Jared Young NYM BAL Shane Baz 8.8% +1038
Luis Lara MIL PIT Lake Bachar 8.8% +1038
Agustín Ramírez* MIA AZ Michael Soroka 8.7% +1045
Alec Bohm PHI WSH Jackson Kent 8.7% +1047
Javier Sanoja* MIA AZ Michael Soroka 8.6% +1066
Jonah Cox SF STL Andre Pallante 8.5% +1076
Grant McCray SF STL Andre Pallante 8.5% +1078
Drew Cavanaugh SF STL Andre Pallante 8.5% +1082
Xander Bogaerts SD COL Kyle Freeland 8.4% +1086
Jared Serna* MIA AZ Michael Soroka 8.4% +1089
Deyvison De Los Santos* MIA AZ Michael Soroka 8.4% +1093
Troy Johnston COL SD Walker Buehler 8.3% +1101
Brian Navarreto* MIA AZ Michael Soroka 8.3% +1103
Alex Freeland LAD CIN Rhett Lowder 8.2% +1116
Osleivis Basabe SF STL Andre Pallante 8.2% +1124
Patrick Bailey CLE CWS Chris Murphy 8.1% +1128
Luisangel Acuña CWS CLE Foster Griffin 8.1% +1129
Tyler Heineman LAA SEA Logan Gilbert 8.0% +1143
Josh Jung TEX BOS Patrick Sandoval 8.0% +1147
Angel Genao CLE CWS Chris Murphy 8.0% +1149
Jake Cronenworth SD COL Kyle Freeland 8.0% +1154
John Peck DET TOR Braydon Fisher 7.9% +1165
Royce Lewis MIN NYY Max Fried 7.9% +1172
David Hamilton MIL PIT Lake Bachar 7.8% +1182
Josh Naylor SEA LAA Ryan Johnson 7.8% +1187
Jacob Young WSH PHI Cristopher Sánchez 7.8% +1188
Alika Williams OAK TB Jack Perkins 7.7% +1200
José Ramírez CLE CWS Chris Murphy 7.6% +1219
Gleyber Torres DET TOR Braydon Fisher 7.6% +1220
Mauricio Dubón ATL CHC Kevin Gausman 7.5% +1230
Leody Taveras BAL NYM Sean Manaea 7.5% +1232
Emmanuel Rodriguez MIN NYY Max Fried 7.5% +1241
Turner Hill SF STL Andre Pallante 7.4% +1248
Trevor Story BOS TEX Jacob deGrom 7.4% +1260
Bo Bichette NYM BAL Shane Baz 7.3% +1263
Christian Koss SF STL Andre Pallante 7.2% +1297
Brayan Rocchio CLE CWS Chris Murphy 7.2% +1298
Luke Keaschall MIN NYY Max Fried 7.1% +1312
Esteury Ruiz* MIA AZ Michael Soroka 7.1% +1315
Francisco Alvarez NYM BAL Shane Baz 7.0% +1337
Maikel Garcia KC HOU Hunter Brown 6.8% +1376
Konnor Griffin PIT MIL Jacob Misiorowski 6.7% +1403
Spencer Horwitz PIT MIL Jacob Misiorowski 6.6% +1426
José Fermín STL SF Blade Tidwell 6.4% +1452
Geraldo Perdomo AZ MIA Janson Junk 6.4% +1462
Sam Antonacci CWS CLE Foster Griffin 6.4% +1470
Petey Halpin CLE CWS Chris Murphy 6.3% +1479
Leo Jiménez* MIA AZ Michael Soroka 6.2% +1506
Zach McKinstry DET TOR Braydon Fisher 6.2% +1518
Brandon Nimmo TEX BOS Patrick Sandoval 6.1% +1545
Nico Hoerner CHC ATL Martín Pérez 6.0% +1560
Masyn Winn STL SF Blade Tidwell 5.9% +1595
Jung Hoo Lee SF STL Andre Pallante 5.8% +1623
Victor Caratini MIN NYY Max Fried 5.7% +1650
Ernie Clement TOR DET Drew Anderson 5.7% +1659
Isaac Collins KC HOU Hunter Brown 5.6% +1698
Marcus Semien NYM BAL Shane Baz 5.6% +1701
Steven Kwan CLE CWS Chris Murphy 5.4% +1743
Bryson Stott PHI WSH Jackson Kent 5.3% +1794
Otto Lopez* MIA AZ Michael Soroka 5.1% +1847
Jorbit Vivas WSH PHI Cristopher Sánchez 5.1% +1856
Austin Martin MIN NYY Max Fried 4.8% +1989
Xavier Edwards* MIA AZ Michael Soroka 4.7% +2026
Luis Arraez PHI WSH Jackson Kent 4.7% +2029
Chandler Simpson TB OAK Jack Perkins 4.5% +2111
Jake Mangum PIT MIL Jacob Misiorowski 4.3% +2246
Nick Gonzales PIT MIL Jacob Misiorowski 4.2% +2292
Nasim Nuñez WSH PHI Cristopher Sánchez 4.0% +2406