🏈 ChalkProof

Anytime TDs

model fair values · week 2 · projections 5h ago

P(≥1 touchdown) for every projected skill player this week, from the same component projections the rest of the site runs on — rushing and receiving touchdowns as independent thin Poisson streams, P = 1 − exp(−(rush TD + rec TD)). Quarterbacks count rushing only (a passing TD is not his anytime TD). Players who are not at full availability are dimmed and marked *.

446 players · sorted by probability · 6 at 50% or better.

#PlayerTmOppPos Rush TDRec TD Anytime TDFair odds
1 Jahmyr Gibbs DET @ BUF RB 0.76 0.14 59.4% -146
2 Jonathan Taylor IND @ KC RB 0.67 0.10 53.7% -116
3 Kyren Williams LA vs NYG RB 0.62 0.14 53.3% -114
4 Bijan Robinson ATL vs CAR RB 0.53 0.23 53.1% -113
5 David Montgomery ⚠ HOU vs CIN RB 0.66 0.08 52.3% -110
6 James Cook BUF vs DET RB 0.60 0.11 50.8% -103
7 De'Von Achane MIA @ SF RB 0.46 0.17 46.8% +114
8 Derrick Henry BAL vs NO RB 0.54 0.05 44.7% +124
9 Kenneth Walker III ⚠ KC vs IND RB 0.42 0.12 41.8% +139
10 Javonte Williams DAL vs WAS RB 0.41 0.12 41.0% +144
11 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET @ BUF WR 0.00 0.52 40.5% +147
12 Rhamondre Stevenson NE vs PIT RB 0.41 0.10 40.0% +150
13 Christian McCaffrey SF vs MIA RB 0.34 0.17 39.9% +151
14 Bhayshul Tuten JAX @ DEN RB 0.39 0.11 39.3% +154
15 Puka Nacua LA vs NYG WR 0.00 0.49 38.9% +157
16 Chase Brown CIN @ HOU RB 0.33 0.16 38.7% +159
17 Josh Allen BUF vs DET QB 0.49 0.00 38.6% +159
18 Saquon Barkley PHI @ TEN RB 0.40 0.09 38.4% +160
19 Nico Collins HOU vs CIN WR 0.00 0.47 37.6% +166
20 Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA @ ARI WR 0.00 0.47 37.4% +167
21 Jacory Croskey-Merritt WAS @ DAL RB 0.38 0.08 36.9% +171
22 D'Andre Swift CHI vs MIN RB 0.39 0.07 36.7% +173
23 Jalen Hurts PHI @ TEN QB 0.45 0.00 36.4% +175
24 MarShawn Lloyd ⚠ GB @ NYJ RB 0.36 0.09 36.3% +175
25 Mike Evans ⚠ SF vs MIA WR 0.00 0.45 36.1% +177
26 CeeDee Lamb DAL vs WAS WR 0.00 0.44 35.8% +179
27 Breece Hall NYJ vs GB RB 0.32 0.12 35.5% +181
28 Ja'Marr Chase CIN @ HOU WR 0.00 0.44 35.5% +181
29 Travis Etienne ⚠ NO @ BAL RB 0.28 0.14 34.4% +190
30 J.K. Dobbins DEN vs JAX RB 0.36 0.06 34.4% +191
31 Cam Skattebo NYG @ LA RB 0.35 0.07 34.3% +192
32 DJ Moore ⚠ BUF vs DET WR 0.00 0.42 34.0% +194
33 Quinshon Judkins CLE @ TB RB 0.33 0.09 33.9% +195
34 Bucky Irving TB vs CLE RB 0.28 0.14 33.7% +197
35 Ladd McConkey LAC vs LV WR 0.00 0.40 33.2% +201
36 Chuba Hubbard CAR @ ATL RB 0.30 0.10 33.1% +202
37 Omarion Hampton LAC vs LV RB 0.32 0.08 32.9% +204
38 Romeo Doubs ⚠ NE vs PIT WR 0.00 0.40 32.8% +205
39 Drake London ATL vs CAR WR 0.00 0.39 32.0% +212
40 Jaylen Warren PIT @ NE RB 0.29 0.09 31.8% +215
41 Tee Higgins CIN @ HOU WR 0.00 0.38 31.7% +216
42 Ashton Jeanty LV @ LAC RB 0.25 0.13 31.5% +218
43 Garrett Wilson NYJ vs GB WR 0.00 0.38 31.3% +220
44 Quentin Johnston LAC vs LV WR 0.00 0.38 31.3% +220
45 Christian Watson GB @ NYJ WR 0.00 0.37 31.2% +220
46 Jadarian Price ⚠ SEA @ ARI RB 0.28 0.08 30.6% +226
47 Alec Pierce IND @ KC WR 0.00 0.36 30.5% +228
48 DeVonta Smith PHI @ TEN WR 0.00 0.36 30.4% +229
49 Trey McBride ARI vs SEA TE 0.00 0.36 30.4% +229
50 Jaylen Waddle ⚠ DEN vs JAX WR 0.00 0.35 29.7% +236
51 Chris Olave NO @ BAL WR 0.00 0.35 29.5% +239
52 Justin Jefferson MIN @ CHI WR 0.00 0.35 29.5% +239
53 Rashee Rice KC vs IND WR 0.00 0.35 29.5% +239
54 Jeremiyah Love ⚠ ARI vs SEA RB 0.26 0.09 29.3% +241
55 Tetairoa McMillan CAR @ ATL WR 0.00 0.34 29.0% +245
56 RJ Harvey DEN vs JAX RB 0.25 0.09 28.7% +249
57 Courtland Sutton DEN vs JAX WR 0.00 0.34 28.6% +250
58 DK Metcalf PIT @ NE WR 0.00 0.34 28.6% +250
59 Davante Adams LA vs NYG WR 0.00 0.33 28.3% +254
60 Terry McLaurin WAS @ DAL WR 0.00 0.33 27.7% +260
61 George Pickens DAL vs WAS WR 0.00 0.32 27.7% +261
62 Emeka Egbuka TB vs CLE WR 0.00 0.32 27.1% +269
63 Tony Pollard TEN vs PHI RB 0.27 0.05 27.1% +269
64 Zay Flowers BAL vs NO WR 0.00 0.31 26.6% +276
65 Carnell Tate ⚠ TEN vs PHI WR 0.00 0.31 26.4% +278
66 Chris Rodriguez Jr. ⚠ JAX @ DEN RB 0.27 0.04 26.4% +278
67 Josh Jacobs GB @ NYJ RB 0.28 0.03 26.4% +279
68 Brian Thomas Jr. JAX @ DEN WR 0.00 0.30 26.1% +283
69 Jalen Nailor ⚠ LV @ LAC WR 0.00 0.30 26.1% +284
70 Malik Washington MIA @ SF WR 0.00 0.30 26.0% +285
71 Jameson Williams DET @ BUF WR 0.00 0.30 25.8% +287
72 Malik Nabers NYG @ LA WR 0.00 0.30 25.7% +289
73 Mark Andrews BAL vs NO TE 0.00 0.30 25.6% +290
74 Dallas Goedert PHI @ TEN TE 0.00 0.29 25.5% +291
75 Marvin Harrison Jr. ARI vs SEA WR 0.00 0.29 25.5% +293
76 Parker Washington JAX @ DEN WR 0.00 0.29 25.4% +294
77 TreVeyon Henderson NE vs PIT RB 0.25 0.04 25.3% +295
78 Rome Odunze CHI vs MIN WR 0.00 0.29 25.1% +298
79 Brian Robinson ⚠ ATL vs CAR RB 0.25 0.04 24.8% +303
80 Kenny Gainwell ⚠ TB vs CLE RB 0.24 0.04 24.6% +306
81 Michael Wilson ARI vs SEA WR 0.00 0.28 24.6% +307
82 George Kittle SF vs MIA TE 0.00 0.28 24.3% +311
83 Jake Ferguson DAL vs WAS TE 0.00 0.28 24.3% +312
84 Tucker Kraft GB @ NYJ TE 0.00 0.28 24.0% +316
85 KC Concepcion ⚠ CLE @ TB WR 0.00 0.27 24.0% +317
86 Blake Corum LA vs NYG RB 0.23 0.04 23.9% +319
87 Isaiah Likely ⚠ NYG @ LA TE 0.00 0.27 23.9% +319
88 Jalen Coker CAR @ ATL WR 0.00 0.27 23.9% +319
89 Tre Tucker LV @ LAC WR 0.00 0.27 23.9% +319
90 Dalton Schultz HOU vs CIN TE 0.00 0.27 23.6% +324
91 Jayden Reed GB @ NYJ WR 0.00 0.27 23.6% +324
92 Sam LaPorta DET @ BUF TE 0.00 0.27 23.4% +327
93 Tyler Allgeier ⚠ ARI vs SEA RB 0.22 0.04 23.4% +328
94 Colby Parkinson LA vs NYG TE 0.00 0.26 23.2% +331
95 Xavier Worthy KC vs IND WR 0.00 0.26 23.2% +331
96 Kaelon Black ⚠ SF vs MIA RB 0.23 0.04 23.1% +332
97 Jerry Jeudy CLE @ TB WR 0.00 0.26 22.8% +338
98 Dontayvion Wicks ⚠ PHI @ TEN WR 0.00 0.26 22.7% +340
99 Rachaad White ⚠ WAS @ DAL RB 0.20 0.05 22.7% +341
100 Zach Charbonnet SEA @ ARI RB 0.23 0.03 22.7% +341
101 Travis Kelce KC vs IND TE 0.00 0.26 22.5% +344
102 Jordan Addison MIN @ CHI WR 0.00 0.25 22.4% +346
103 Stefon Diggs ⚠ WAS @ DAL WR 0.00 0.25 22.4% +346
104 Xavier Hutchinson HOU vs CIN WR 0.00 0.25 22.2% +350
105 Kyle Monangai CHI vs MIN RB 0.21 0.04 22.1% +352
106 Caleb Douglas ⚠ MIA @ SF WR 0.00 0.25 22.0% +354
107 Jaxson Dart NYG @ LA QB 0.25 0.00 21.8% +359
108 Khalil Shakir BUF vs DET WR 0.00 0.25 21.8% +359
109 Jordan Mason MIN @ CHI RB 0.22 0.03 21.7% +360
110 Keaton Mitchell ⚠ LAC vs LV RB 0.20 0.04 21.7% +362
111 Deebo Samuel Sr. SF vs MIA WR 0.00 0.24 21.6% +364
112 Lamar Jackson BAL vs NO QB 0.24 0.00 21.6% +364
113 Jahan Dotson ⚠ ATL vs CAR WR 0.00 0.24 21.4% +367
114 Bo Nix DEN vs JAX QB 0.24 0.00 21.3% +370
115 Rico Dowdle ⚠ PIT @ NE RB 0.18 0.06 21.3% +370
116 Emari Demercado ⚠ DAL vs WAS RB 0.19 0.05 21.2% +372
117 Josh Downs IND @ KC WR 0.00 0.24 21.1% +374
118 Aaron Jones MIN @ CHI RB 0.18 0.06 21.0% +376
119 Jonathon Brooks ⚠ CAR @ ATL RB 0.19 0.05 21.0% +376
120 Tyjae Spears TEN vs PHI RB 0.18 0.06 20.9% +377
121 Charlie Kolar ⚠ LAC vs LV TE 0.00 0.23 20.9% +379
122 Malik Willis MIA @ SF QB 0.23 0.00 20.9% +379
123 Brock Bowers LV @ LAC TE 0.00 0.23 20.8% +381
124 Devaughn Vele NO @ BAL WR 0.00 0.23 20.8% +381
125 Dalton Kincaid BUF vs DET TE 0.00 0.23 20.7% +383
126 DeMario Douglas NE vs PIT WR 0.00 0.23 20.5% +389
127 Emmett Johnson ⚠ KC vs IND RB 0.17 0.05 20.2% +394
128 Sione Vaki ⚠ DET @ BUF RB 0.19 0.04 20.2% +394
129 Hunter Henry NE vs PIT TE 0.00 0.22 20.0% +400
130 Chris Godwin Jr. TB vs CLE WR 0.00 0.22 19.8% +404
131 Justice Hill BAL vs NO RB 0.18 0.04 19.7% +406
132 Tommy Tremble CAR @ ATL TE 0.00 0.22 19.5% +413
133 Kyle Pitts ATL vs CAR TE 0.00 0.22 19.4% +415
134 Michael Pittman ⚠ PIT @ NE WR 0.00 0.22 19.4% +415
135 Luther Burden III CHI vs MIN WR 0.00 0.21 19.3% +419
136 Kayshon Boutte ⚠ HOU vs CIN WR 0.00 0.21 19.2% +421
137 Woody Marks HOU vs CIN RB 0.15 0.06 19.0% +426
138 Cade Otton TB vs CLE TE 0.00 0.21 18.9% +428
139 Ryan Flournoy DAL vs WAS WR 0.00 0.21 18.9% +428
140 AJ Barner SEA @ ARI TE 0.00 0.21 18.9% +430
141 Caleb Williams CHI vs MIN QB 0.21 0.00 18.8% +433
142 Harold Fannin Jr. CLE @ TB TE 0.00 0.21 18.8% +433
143 George Holani ⚠ SEA @ ARI RB 0.17 0.04 18.7% +435
144 Jayden Daniels WAS @ DAL QB 0.21 0.00 18.7% +435
145 Drake Maye NE vs PIT QB 0.20 0.00 18.5% +440
146 Trevor Lawrence JAX @ DEN QB 0.20 0.00 18.5% +440
147 Braelon Allen NYJ vs GB RB 0.16 0.05 18.5% +442
148 Brenton Strange JAX @ DEN TE 0.00 0.20 18.5% +442
149 Kalif Raymond ⚠ CHI vs MIN WR 0.00 0.20 18.4% +444
150 Malachi Fields ⚠ NYG @ LA WR 0.00 0.20 18.4% +444
151 Rashid Shaheed SEA @ ARI WR 0.00 0.20 18.4% +444
152 Justin Herbert LAC vs LV QB 0.20 0.00 18.2% +449
153 Mike Gesicki CIN @ HOU TE 0.00 0.20 18.2% +449
154 Tank Bigsby PHI @ TEN RB 0.17 0.03 18.2% +449
155 Devin Singletary NYG @ LA RB 0.16 0.04 18.1% +452
156 Juwan Johnson NO @ BAL TE 0.00 0.20 18.1% +452
157 T.J. Hockenson MIN @ CHI TE 0.00 0.20 18.1% +452
158 Rashod Bateman BAL vs NO WR 0.00 0.20 17.8% +462
159 Baker Mayfield TB vs CLE QB 0.20 0.00 17.7% +464
160 Alvin Kamara NO @ BAL RB 0.14 0.05 17.5% +472
161 Adonai Mitchell NYJ vs GB WR 0.00 0.19 17.3% +478
162 Deshaun Watson CLE @ TB QB 0.19 0.00 17.3% +478
163 Tyler Warren IND @ KC TE 0.00 0.19 17.3% +478
164 Wan'Dale Robinson ⚠ TEN vs PHI WR 0.00 0.19 17.3% +478
165 Tre Harris ⚠ LAC vs LV WR 0.00 0.19 17.1% +486
166 Cam Ward TEN vs PHI QB 0.19 0.00 17.0% +489
167 Mike Washington Jr. ⚠ LV @ LAC RB 0.16 0.03 17.0% +489
168 Brock Purdy SF vs MIA QB 0.18 0.00 16.9% +492
169 Colston Loveland CHI vs MIN TE 0.00 0.18 16.5% +507
170 Denzel Boston ⚠ CLE @ TB WR 0.00 0.18 16.4% +510
171 Gunnar Helm TEN vs PHI TE 0.00 0.18 16.2% +516
172 Patrick Mahomes KC vs IND QB 0.18 0.00 16.2% +516
173 Seth McGowan ⚠ IND @ KC RB 0.14 0.04 16.1% +520
174 Chris Brooks GB @ NYJ RB 0.14 0.04 16.1% +523
175 Andrei Iosivas CIN @ HOU WR 0.00 0.17 15.8% +533
176 Jalen McMillan ⚠ TB vs CLE WR 0.00 0.17 15.8% +533
177 Matthew Golden ⚠ GB @ NYJ WR 0.00 0.17 15.7% +536
178 Roman Wilson ⚠ PIT @ NE WR 0.00 0.17 15.7% +536
179 Sean Tucker TB vs CLE RB 0.14 0.02 15.2% +557
180 Chig Okonkwo ⚠ WAS @ DAL TE 0.00 0.16 15.1% +561
181 Greg Dulcich ⚠ MIA @ SF TE 0.00 0.16 15.1% +561
182 Mason Taylor NYJ vs GB TE 0.00 0.16 15.1% +561
183 Kendrick Bourne ⚠ ARI vs SEA WR 0.00 0.16 15.0% +569
184 Ray Davis BUF vs DET RB 0.12 0.04 15.0% +569
185 Jauan Jennings ⚠ MIN @ CHI WR 0.00 0.16 14.8% +576
186 Samaje Perine CIN @ HOU RB 0.12 0.04 14.7% +580
187 Dylan Sampson CLE @ TB RB 0.12 0.04 14.5% +588
188 Isaac TeSlaa ⚠ DET @ BUF WR 0.00 0.16 14.5% +588
189 Jaylen Wright MIA @ SF RB 0.12 0.03 14.4% +596
190 Xavier Legette CAR @ ATL WR 0.00 0.15 14.4% +596
191 Tyquan Thornton KC vs IND WR 0.00 0.15 14.2% +605
192 Pat Freiermuth PIT @ NE TE 0.00 0.15 14.1% +609
193 Tyrone Tracy Jr. NYG @ LA RB 0.13 0.03 14.1% +609
194 Evan Engram DEN vs JAX TE 0.00 0.15 14.0% +614
195 Keenan Allen ⚠ IND @ KC WR 0.00 0.15 14.0% +614
196 Dak Prescott DAL vs WAS QB 0.15 0.00 13.9% +618
197 Darnell Washington PIT @ NE TE 0.00 0.15 13.8% +622
198 Makai Lemon ⚠ PHI @ TEN WR 0.00 0.15 13.8% +622
199 De'Zhaun Stribling ⚠ SF vs MIA WR 0.00 0.14 13.5% +641
200 Antonio Williams ⚠ WAS @ DAL WR 0.00 0.14 13.4% +646
201 Mack Hollins NE vs PIT WR 0.00 0.14 13.4% +646
202 Olamide Zaccheaus ⚠ ATL vs CAR WR 0.00 0.14 13.3% +650
203 Bryce Young CAR @ ATL QB 0.14 0.00 13.2% +660
204 David Njoku ⚠ LAC vs LV TE 0.00 0.14 13.2% +660
205 Keon Coleman BUF vs DET WR 0.00 0.14 13.1% +665
206 Aaron Rodgers PIT @ NE QB 0.14 0.00 13.0% +671
207 Michael Penix Jr. ATL vs CAR QB 0.14 0.00 13.0% +671
208 Kimani Vidal LAC vs LV RB 0.11 0.02 12.8% +681
209 Omar Cooper Jr. ⚠ NYJ vs GB WR 0.00 0.14 12.8% +681
210 James Conner ARI vs SEA RB 0.11 0.02 12.7% +686
211 Josh Oliver ⚠ MIN @ CHI TE 0.00 0.13 12.5% +697
212 Cole Kmet CHI vs MIN TE 0.00 0.13 12.5% +703
213 Jack Bech ⚠ LV @ LAC WR 0.00 0.13 12.5% +703
214 Chris Bell ⚠ MIA @ SF WR 0.00 0.13 12.3% +714
215 Cooper Kupp SEA @ ARI WR 0.00 0.13 12.3% +714
216 Jordan Whittington ⚠ LA vs NYG WR 0.00 0.13 12.3% +714
217 Geno Smith NYJ vs GB QB 0.13 0.00 12.2% +720
218 Jakobi Meyers JAX @ DEN WR 0.00 0.13 12.1% +726
219 Joe Burrow CIN @ HOU QB 0.13 0.00 12.0% +732
220 Ja'Kobi Lane ⚠ BAL vs NO WR 0.00 0.13 11.9% +738
221 Kyler Murray MIN @ CHI QB 0.13 0.00 11.9% +738
222 C.J. Stroud HOU vs CIN QB 0.13 0.00 11.8% +745
223 Kirk Cousins LV @ LAC QB 0.13 0.00 11.8% +745
224 Tyler Shough NO @ BAL QB 0.13 0.00 11.8% +745
225 Marvin Mims Jr. DEN vs JAX WR 0.00 0.12 11.8% +751
226 Pat Bryant ⚠ DEN vs JAX WR 0.00 0.12 11.3% +784
227 Michael Mayer LV @ LAC TE 0.00 0.12 11.1% +798
228 Calvin Ridley TEN vs PHI WR 0.00 0.12 11.0% +813
229 Jacoby Brissett ARI vs SEA QB 0.12 0.00 10.9% +821
230 Darnell Mooney ⚠ NYG @ LA WR 0.00 0.11 10.8% +828
231 Barion Brown ⚠ NO @ BAL WR 0.00 0.11 10.7% +836
232 Matthew Stafford LA vs NYG QB 0.11 0.00 10.7% +836
233 Raheim Sanders ⚠ CLE @ TB RB 0.07 0.04 10.7% +836
234 Israel Abanikanda ⚠ DAL vs WAS RB 0.09 0.02 10.6% +844
235 Corey Kiner ⚠ NE vs PIT RB 0.10 0.01 10.4% +860
236 Jared Goff DET @ BUF QB 0.11 0.00 10.4% +860
237 Kendre Miller NO @ BAL RB 0.09 0.01 10.2% +877
238 Ty Johnson BUF vs DET RB 0.08 0.03 10.1% +885
239 Tyler Higbee LA vs NYG TE 0.00 0.11 10.1% +885
240 Daniel Jones IND @ KC QB 0.10 0.00 10.0% +903
241 Adam Trautman DEN vs JAX TE 0.00 0.10 9.8% +922
242 Ronnie Rivers ⚠ LA vs NYG RB 0.08 0.02 9.8% +922
243 Brevyn Spann-Ford ⚠ DAL vs WAS TE 0.00 0.10 9.5% +951
244 Foster Moreau ⚠ HOU vs CIN TE 0.00 0.10 9.5% +951
245 Ollie Gordon II MIA @ SF RB 0.08 0.02 9.5% +951
246 KaVontae Turpin DAL vs WAS WR 0.00 0.10 9.4% +961
247 Noah Fant ⚠ NO @ BAL TE 0.00 0.10 9.4% +961
248 Trey Sermon ⚠ ATL vs CAR RB 0.08 0.02 9.4% +961
249 Roschon Johnson CHI vs MIN RB 0.08 0.01 9.2% +992
250 Kenyon Sadiq ⚠ NYJ vs GB TE 0.00 0.10 9.1% +1003
251 Noah Gray KC vs IND TE 0.00 0.10 9.1% +1003
252 Troy Franklin DEN vs JAX WR 0.00 0.10 9.1% +1003
253 Kaytron Allen ⚠ WAS @ DAL RB 0.08 0.01 8.9% +1026
254 British Brooks ⚠ HOU vs CIN RB 0.07 0.02 8.8% +1038
255 AJ Dillon ⚠ CAR @ ATL RB 0.08 0.01 8.6% +1062
256 Drew Sample ⚠ CIN @ HOU TE 0.00 0.09 8.6% +1062
257 Jordan James ⚠ SF vs MIA RB 0.07 0.02 8.6% +1062
258 Demarcus Robinson SF vs MIA WR 0.00 0.09 8.4% +1087
259 Isaiah Davis NYJ vs GB RB 0.07 0.02 8.4% +1087
260 Jake Tonges ⚠ SF vs MIA TE 0.00 0.09 8.4% +1087
261 Jaylin Noel ⚠ HOU vs CIN WR 0.00 0.09 8.4% +1087
262 Will Shipley ⚠ PHI @ TEN RB 0.07 0.02 8.4% +1087
263 Dawson Knox BUF vs DET TE 0.00 0.09 8.3% +1100
264 Eli Heidenreich ⚠ PIT @ NE RB 0.07 0.02 8.2% +1114
265 LeQuint Allen Jr. ⚠ JAX @ DEN RB 0.07 0.02 8.2% +1114
266 Theo Johnson NYG @ LA TE 0.00 0.09 8.2% +1114
267 Tory Horton ⚠ SEA @ ARI WR 0.00 0.09 8.2% +1114
268 Bam Knight ARI vs SEA RB 0.07 0.02 8.1% +1127
269 Demond Claiborne ⚠ MIN @ CHI RB 0.07 0.01 8.1% +1127
270 Jordan Love GB @ NYJ QB 0.09 0.00 8.1% +1127
271 Ted Hurst III ⚠ TB vs CLE WR 0.00 0.08 8.1% +1141
272 Jonnu Smith ⚠ GB @ NYJ TE 0.00 0.08 8.0% +1156
273 John Bates ⚠ WAS @ DAL TE 0.00 0.08 7.8% +1185
274 Jonah Coleman ⚠ DEN vs JAX RB 0.07 0.01 7.8% +1185
275 Blake Whiteheart ⚠ CLE @ TB TE 0.00 0.08 7.7% +1201
276 Josh Cameron ⚠ JAX @ DEN WR 0.00 0.08 7.7% +1201
277 Konata Mumpfield ⚠ LA vs NYG WR 0.00 0.08 7.7% +1201
278 Jacob Saylors ⚠ DET @ BUF RB 0.06 0.01 7.5% +1233
279 Payne Durham ⚠ TB vs CLE TE 0.00 0.08 7.5% +1233
280 Brashard Smith ⚠ KC vs IND RB 0.05 0.02 7.4% +1249
281 Rasheen Ali ⚠ BAL vs NO RB 0.06 0.01 7.4% +1249
282 Julius Chestnut ⚠ TEN vs PHI RB 0.06 0.02 7.3% +1266
283 Brenen Thompson ⚠ LAC vs LV WR 0.00 0.07 7.2% +1284
284 Devontez Walker ⚠ BAL vs NO WR 0.00 0.07 7.2% +1284
285 Mitchell Evans ⚠ CAR @ ATL TE 0.00 0.07 7.2% +1284
286 Cyrus Allen ⚠ KC vs IND WR 0.00 0.07 7.1% +1302
287 Elic Ayomanor TEN vs PHI WR 0.00 0.07 7.1% +1302
288 Carson Wentz MIN @ CHI QB 0.07 0.00 7.0% +1320
289 DJ Giddens ⚠ IND @ KC RB 0.06 0.02 7.0% +1320
290 Bryce Lance ⚠ NO @ BAL WR 0.00 0.07 6.9% +1339
291 Chimere Dike TEN vs PHI WR 0.00 0.07 6.9% +1339
292 Mo Alie-Cox ⚠ IND @ KC TE 0.00 0.07 6.9% +1339
293 Elijah Higgins ARI vs SEA TE 0.00 0.07 6.9% +1359
294 Emanuel Wilson ⚠ SEA @ ARI RB 0.06 0.01 6.8% +1379
295 Kevin Coleman Jr. ⚠ MIA @ SF WR 0.00 0.07 6.8% +1379
296 Marquise Brown ⚠ PHI @ TEN WR 0.00 0.07 6.8% +1379
297 Brock Wright ⚠ DET @ BUF TE 0.00 0.07 6.7% +1400
298 Colbie Young ⚠ CIN @ HOU WR 0.00 0.07 6.7% +1400
299 Jalen Brooks ⚠ ARI vs SEA WR 0.00 0.07 6.7% +1400
300 Nate Boerkircher ⚠ JAX @ DEN TE 0.00 0.07 6.7% +1400
301 Charlie Woerner ⚠ ATL vs CAR TE 0.00 0.07 6.6% +1421
302 Dyami Brown WAS @ DAL WR 0.00 0.07 6.5% +1443
303 Malik Benson ⚠ LV @ LAC WR 0.00 0.07 6.4% +1466
304 Ashton Dulin ⚠ IND @ KC WR 0.00 0.07 6.3% +1489
305 Isaiah Williams ⚠ NYJ vs GB WR 0.00 0.07 6.3% +1489
306 Tai Felton ⚠ MIN @ CHI WR 0.00 0.07 6.3% +1489
307 Zavion Thomas ⚠ CHI vs MIN WR 0.00 0.07 6.3% +1489
308 Isaiah Bond ⚠ CLE @ TB WR 0.00 0.06 6.2% +1513
309 Jimmy Horn Jr. ⚠ CAR @ ATL WR 0.00 0.06 6.2% +1513
310 Skyy Moore ⚠ GB @ NYJ WR 0.00 0.06 6.2% +1513
311 Daniel Bellinger ⚠ TEN vs PHI TE 0.00 0.06 6.1% +1538
312 Germie Bernard ⚠ PIT @ NE WR 0.00 0.06 6.1% +1538
313 Tahj Brooks ⚠ CIN @ HOU RB 0.05 0.02 6.1% +1538
314 Dylan Laube ⚠ LV @ LAC RB 0.05 0.01 6.0% +1563
315 Johnny Mundt ⚠ PHI @ TEN TE 0.00 0.06 6.0% +1563
316 Kyle Williams ⚠ NE vs PIT WR 0.00 0.06 6.0% +1563
317 Oronde Gadsden II LAC vs LV TE 0.00 0.06 6.0% +1563
318 Will Kacmarek ⚠ MIA @ SF TE 0.00 0.06 6.0% +1563
319 Eli Raridon ⚠ NE vs PIT TE 0.00 0.06 5.9% +1590
320 Josh Palmer BUF vs DET WR 0.00 0.06 5.8% +1617
321 Kaleb Johnson ⚠ GB @ NYJ RB 0.04 0.01 5.7% +1645
322 Sam Darnold SEA @ ARI QB 0.06 0.00 5.7% +1645
323 Anthony Richardson IND @ KC QB 0.06 0.00 5.6% +1675
324 Jeremy McNichols WAS @ DAL RB 0.04 0.01 5.6% +1675
325 Malik Davis DAL vs WAS RB 0.04 0.02 5.5% +1705
326 Marcus Mariota WAS @ DAL QB 0.06 0.00 5.4% +1736
327 Odell Beckham Jr. ⚠ NYG @ LA WR 0.00 0.06 5.4% +1769
328 Durham Smythe ⚠ BAL vs NO TE 0.00 0.05 5.3% +1802
329 Tom Kennedy ⚠ DET @ BUF WR 0.00 0.05 5.2% +1837
330 Zachariah Branch ⚠ ATL vs CAR WR 0.00 0.05 5.2% +1837
331 Drew Lock SEA @ ARI QB 0.05 0.00 5.1% +1874
332 Ameer Abdullah ⚠ JAX @ DEN RB 0.03 0.02 5.0% +1911
333 Eric Saubert ⚠ SEA @ ARI TE 0.00 0.05 5.0% +1911
334 Isaac Guerendo SF vs MIA RB 0.03 0.02 4.8% +1991
335 Luke Schoonmaker DAL vs WAS TE 0.00 0.05 4.8% +1991
336 Tez Johnson ⚠ TB vs CLE WR 0.00 0.05 4.8% +1991
337 Darren Waller ⚠ CAR @ ATL TE 0.00 0.04 4.4% +2173
338 Jeremy Ruckert NYJ vs GB TE 0.00 0.04 4.4% +2173
339 Terrance Ferguson ⚠ LA vs NYG TE 0.00 0.04 4.4% +2173
340 Travis Hunter ⚠ JAX @ DEN WR 0.00 0.04 4.4% +2173
341 Luke Farrell ⚠ SF vs MIA TE 0.00 0.04 4.3% +2223
342 Stetson Bennett ⚠ LA vs NYG QB 0.04 0.00 4.3% +2223
343 Brittain Brown ⚠ CHI vs MIN RB 0.03 0.02 4.2% +2276
344 Quintin Morris ⚠ JAX @ DEN TE 0.00 0.04 4.2% +2276
345 Tyler Badie ⚠ DEN vs JAX RB 0.03 0.02 4.2% +2276
346 Jarrett Stidham ⚠ DEN vs JAX QB 0.04 0.00 4.1% +2331
347 Kenny Pickett CAR @ ATL QB 0.04 0.00 4.1% +2331
348 Sam Howell DAL vs WAS QB 0.04 0.00 4.1% +2331
349 A.J. Brown NE vs PIT WR 0.00 0.04 4.0% +2389
350 Shedeur Sanders CLE @ TB QB 0.04 0.00 3.9% +2450
351 Trevor Etienne ⚠ CAR @ ATL RB 0.02 0.02 3.9% +2450
352 Tyson Bagent CHI vs MIN QB 0.04 0.00 3.9% +2450
353 Adam Randall ⚠ BAL vs NO RB 0.02 0.01 3.7% +2582
354 Andrew Ogletree ⚠ IND @ KC TE 0.00 0.04 3.7% +2582
355 Davis Mills HOU vs CIN QB 0.04 0.00 3.7% +2582
356 DeeJay Dallas ⚠ MIN @ CHI RB 0.02 0.02 3.7% +2582
357 Frank Gore Jr. ⚠ BUF vs DET RB 0.03 0.01 3.7% +2582
358 Jahdae Walker ⚠ CHI vs MIN WR 0.00 0.04 3.7% +2582
359 Jared Wayne ⚠ HOU vs CIN WR 0.00 0.04 3.7% +2582
360 Joshua Dobbs DET @ BUF QB 0.04 0.00 3.7% +2582
361 Kene Nwangwu ⚠ NYJ vs GB RB 0.02 0.02 3.7% +2582
362 Kyle Allen ⚠ BUF vs DET QB 0.04 0.00 3.7% +2582
363 Myles Montgomery ⚠ NE vs PIT RB 0.02 0.02 3.7% +2582
364 Tyler Huntley BAL vs NO QB 0.04 0.00 3.7% +2582
365 Arian Smith ⚠ NYJ vs GB WR 0.00 0.04 3.6% +2653
366 Chris Collier ⚠ LV @ LAC RB 0.02 0.02 3.6% +2653
367 Andy Dalton PHI @ TEN QB 0.04 0.00 3.5% +2728
368 Audric Estimé NO @ BAL RB 0.02 0.02 3.5% +2728
369 Isiah Pacheco ⚠ DET @ BUF RB 0.02 0.02 3.5% +2728
370 Quinn Ewers JAX @ DEN QB 0.04 0.00 3.5% +2728
371 Tommy DeVito NE vs PIT QB 0.04 0.00 3.5% +2728
372 Hunter Luepke ⚠ DAL vs WAS FB 0.02 0.01 3.4% +2807
373 Jalon Daniels ⚠ TB vs CLE QB 0.04 0.00 3.4% +2807
374 Jared Wiley ⚠ KC vs IND TE 0.00 0.04 3.4% +2807
375 Jonathan Mingo DAL vs WAS WR 0.00 0.04 3.4% +2807
376 Josh Williams ⚠ TB vs CLE RB 0.02 0.01 3.4% +2807
377 Marlin Klein ⚠ HOU vs CIN TE 0.00 0.04 3.4% +2807
378 Nicholas Singleton ⚠ TEN vs PHI RB 0.02 0.01 3.4% +2807
379 Tylan Wallace ⚠ CLE @ TB WR 0.00 0.04 3.4% +2807
380 Bo Melton ⚠ GB @ NYJ WR 0.00 0.03 3.3% +2891
381 Jameis Winston NYG @ LA QB 0.03 0.00 3.3% +2891
382 KeAndre Lambert-Smith ⚠ LAC vs LV WR 0.00 0.03 3.3% +2891
383 Mason Rudolph PIT @ NE QB 0.03 0.00 3.3% +2891
384 Trey Lance LAC vs LV QB 0.03 0.00 3.3% +2891
385 Jackson Hawes ⚠ BUF vs DET TE 0.00 0.03 3.2% +2981
386 Kyle McCord ⚠ MIA @ SF QB 0.03 0.00 3.2% +2981
387 Najee Harris ⚠ NYG @ LA RB 0.02 0.01 3.2% +2981
388 Tua Tagovailoa ATL vs CAR QB 0.03 0.00 3.2% +2981
389 Ko Kieft ⚠ TB vs CLE TE 0.00 0.03 3.1% +3075
390 Laquon Treadwell ⚠ IND @ KC WR 0.00 0.03 3.1% +3075
391 Mitchell Trubisky TEN vs PHI QB 0.03 0.00 3.1% +3075
392 Spencer Rattler NO @ BAL QB 0.03 0.00 3.1% +3075
393 Jalen Tolbert ⚠ MIA @ SF WR 0.00 0.03 3.1% +3176
394 Jaylin Lane ⚠ WAS @ DAL WR 0.00 0.03 3.1% +3176
395 Josh Whyle ⚠ GB @ NYJ TE 0.00 0.03 3.1% +3176
396 Ben Sinnott ⚠ WAS @ DAL TE 0.00 0.03 3.0% +3284
397 Brady Russell ⚠ SEA @ ARI FB 0.01 0.02 3.0% +3284
398 Dohnte Meyers ⚠ CIN @ HOU WR 0.00 0.03 3.0% +3284
399 Efton Chism III ⚠ NE vs PIT WR 0.00 0.03 3.0% +3284
400 Erick All ⚠ CIN @ HOU TE 0.00 0.03 3.0% +3284
401 Justin Fields KC vs IND QB 0.03 0.00 3.0% +3284
402 Mac Jones SF vs MIA QB 0.03 0.00 3.0% +3284
403 Austin Hooper ⚠ ATL vs CAR TE 0.00 0.03 2.9% +3399
404 Ben Skowronek ⚠ PIT @ NE WR 0.00 0.03 2.9% +3399
405 Cade Klubnik ⚠ NYJ vs GB QB 0.03 0.00 2.9% +3399
406 E.J. Jenkins ⚠ PHI @ TEN TE 0.00 0.03 2.9% +3399
407 Calvin Austin III ⚠ NYG @ LA WR 0.00 0.03 2.8% +3522
408 Matthew Hibner ⚠ BAL vs NO TE 0.00 0.03 2.8% +3522
409 Nate Adkins ⚠ DEN vs JAX TE 0.00 0.03 2.8% +3522
410 Elijah Arroyo ⚠ SEA @ ARI TE 0.00 0.03 2.7% +3654
411 Fernando Mendoza ⚠ LV @ LAC QB 0.03 0.00 2.7% +3654
412 Jalen Royals ⚠ KC vs IND WR 0.00 0.03 2.7% +3654
413 Robert Tonyan ⚠ PIT @ NE TE 0.00 0.03 2.7% +3654
414 Sam Roush ⚠ CHI vs MIN TE 0.00 0.03 2.7% +3654
415 Xavier Smith ⚠ LA vs NYG WR 0.00 0.03 2.7% +3654
416 Hunter Long ⚠ ARI vs SEA TE 0.00 0.03 2.6% +3796
417 Ian Thomas ⚠ LV @ LAC TE 0.00 0.03 2.6% +3796
418 Joe Flacco CIN @ HOU QB 0.03 0.00 2.6% +3796
419 Jordyn Tyson ⚠ NO @ BAL WR 0.00 0.03 2.6% +3796
420 Oscar Delp ⚠ NO @ BAL TE 0.00 0.03 2.6% +3796
421 Seydou Traore ⚠ MIA @ SF TE 0.00 0.03 2.6% +3796
422 Tanner Arkin ⚠ NE vs PIT TE 0.00 0.03 2.6% +3796
423 Gavin Bartholomew ⚠ MIN @ CHI TE 0.00 0.03 2.5% +3950
424 Skyler Bell ⚠ BUF vs DET WR 0.00 0.03 2.5% +3950
425 Tyler Conklin ⚠ DET @ BUF TE 0.00 0.03 2.5% +3950
426 Carsen Ryan ⚠ CLE @ TB TE 0.00 0.02 2.4% +4117
427 Chris Blair ⚠ ATL vs CAR WR 0.00 0.02 2.4% +4117
428 Gardner Minshew ARI vs SEA QB 0.02 0.00 2.4% +4117
429 Kylen Granson ⚠ TEN vs PHI TE 0.00 0.02 2.4% +4117
430 Simi Fehoko ⚠ ARI vs SEA WR 0.00 0.02 2.4% +4117
431 Tyrod Taylor GB @ NYJ QB 0.02 0.00 2.4% +4117
432 Brycen Tremayne ⚠ CAR @ ATL WR 0.00 0.02 2.3% +4298
433 Jacob Cowing ⚠ SF vs MIA WR 0.00 0.02 2.3% +4298
434 Reggie Gilliam ⚠ NE vs PIT FB 0.01 0.01 2.3% +4298
435 Tay Martin ⚠ DET @ BUF WR 0.00 0.02 2.3% +4298
436 Dareke Young ⚠ LV @ LAC WR 0.00 0.02 2.2% +4496
437 Elijah Sarratt ⚠ BAL vs NO WR 0.00 0.02 2.2% +4496
438 LaJohntay Wester ⚠ BAL vs NO WR 0.00 0.02 2.2% +4496
439 Myles Price ⚠ MIN @ CHI WR 0.00 0.02 2.2% +4496
440 Ben VanSumeren ⚠ KC vs IND FB 0.01 0.01 2.1% +4712
441 Elijah Moore ⚠ PHI @ TEN WR 0.00 0.02 2.1% +4712
442 Patrick Ricard ⚠ NYG @ LA FB 0.01 0.01 2.1% +4712
443 Montorie Foster Jr ⚠ SEA @ ARI WR 0.00 0.02 2.0% +4950
444 Davis Allen ⚠ LA vs NYG TE 0.00 0.01 1.4% +7093
445 Derius Davis ⚠ LAC vs LV WR 0.00 0.01 1.2% +8283
446 Jake Briningstool ⚠ KC vs IND TE 0.00 0.01 1.2% +8283

Fair odds are the vig-free American price of the model's own probability — a book's number will be shorter on both sides. These are model-derived fair values, not betting advice.