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Anytime TDs

model fair values · week 8 · projections 3h ago

P(≥1 touchdown) for every projected skill player this week, from the same component projections the rest of the site runs on — rushing and receiving touchdowns as independent thin Poisson streams, P = 1 − exp(−(rush TD + rec TD)). Quarterbacks count rushing only (a passing TD is not his anytime TD). Players who are not at full availability are dimmed and marked *. A thin prior (n) chip means the player's efficiency prior rests on fewer than 55 weighted 2023–25 touches (150 dropbacks for a QB), so his line leans on league-average regression.

386 players · sorted by probability · 4 at 50% or better.

#PlayerTmOppPos Rush TDRec TD Anytime TDFair odds
1 Jahmyr Gibbs DET vs MIN RB 0.92 0.18 66.8% -201
2 Jonathan Taylor IND @ JAX RB 0.66 0.09 53.0% -113
3 James Cook BUF vs BAL RB 0.65 0.09 52.6% -111
4 Kyren Williams LA vs LAC RB 0.56 0.17 51.8% -107
5 Derrick Henry BAL @ BUF RB 0.60 0.04 47.3% +111
6 Bhayshul Tuten thin prior (42 touches) JAX vs IND RB 0.53 0.11 47.1% +112
7 Bijan Robinson ATL @ TB RB 0.48 0.15 46.8% +113
8 Javonte Williams DAL vs ARI RB 0.53 0.09 46.3% +116
9 Josh Allen BUF vs BAL QB 0.60 0.00 45.3% +121
10 Chase Brown CIN vs TEN RB 0.39 0.21 45.0% +122
11 Josh Jacobs GB vs CAR RB 0.47 0.09 42.8% +134
12 Tee Higgins CIN vs TEN WR 0.00 0.56 42.8% +134
13 Kenneth Walker III ⚠ KC @ DEN RB 0.46 0.10 42.7% +134
14 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET vs MIN WR 0.00 0.53 41.1% +143
15 Zach Charbonnet SEA vs CHI RB 0.44 0.07 40.1% +149
16 Ja'Marr Chase CIN vs TEN WR 0.00 0.51 39.8% +151
17 Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA vs CHI WR 0.00 0.50 39.3% +155
18 Puka Nacua LA vs LAC WR 0.00 0.49 38.5% +160
19 Ollie Gordon II thin prior (35 touches) MIA vs NE RB 0.40 0.08 37.9% +164
20 CeeDee Lamb DAL vs ARI WR 0.00 0.48 37.9% +164
21 Chuba Hubbard CAR @ GB RB 0.38 0.09 37.6% +166
22 Saquon Barkley PHI @ WAS RB 0.40 0.07 37.4% +168
23 Bucky Irving TB vs ATL RB 0.34 0.12 37.3% +168
24 Ashton Jeanty LV @ NYJ RB 0.30 0.17 37.1% +169
25 Jaylen Warren PIT vs CLE RB 0.36 0.10 36.7% +173
26 Rhamondre Stevenson NE @ MIA RB 0.35 0.10 36.1% +177
27 A.J. Brown ⚠ NE @ MIA WR 0.00 0.41 33.9% +195
28 Parker Washington JAX vs IND WR 0.00 0.41 33.9% +195
29 Quinshon Judkins CLE @ PIT RB 0.32 0.08 33.5% +198
30 Drake London ATL @ TB WR 0.00 0.41 33.4% +199
31 J.K. Dobbins DEN vs KC RB 0.35 0.05 33.3% +200
32 D'Andre Swift CHI @ SEA RB 0.32 0.08 33.2% +201
33 Rachaad White ⚠ WAS vs PHI RB 0.30 0.10 32.9% +204
34 DeVonta Smith PHI @ WAS WR 0.00 0.40 32.6% +206
35 Trey McBride ARI @ DAL TE 0.00 0.39 32.2% +211
36 Emeka Egbuka TB vs ATL WR 0.00 0.39 32.1% +212
37 Omarion Hampton LAC @ LA RB 0.32 0.06 32.0% +213
38 Breece Hall NYJ vs LV RB 0.28 0.10 31.5% +217
39 Michael Wilson ARI @ DAL WR 0.00 0.38 31.3% +220
40 Jeremiyah Love thin prior (0 touches) ARI @ DAL RB 0.30 0.07 31.1% +222
41 George Pickens DAL vs ARI WR 0.00 0.37 30.9% +223
42 Tony Pollard TEN @ CIN RB 0.32 0.05 30.9% +223
43 Christian Watson thin prior (54 touches) GB vs CAR WR 0.00 0.37 30.8% +225
44 Jaydon Blue thin prior (19 touches) PHI @ WAS RB 0.32 0.04 30.6% +227
45 Jaylen Waddle ⚠ DEN vs KC WR 0.00 0.36 30.3% +230
46 Tetairoa McMillan CAR @ GB WR 0.00 0.36 30.1% +232
47 DK Metcalf PIT vs CLE WR 0.00 0.34 29.2% +243
48 Emanuel Wilson ⚠ SEA vs CHI RB 0.30 0.04 28.5% +250
49 Brock Bowers LV @ NYJ TE 0.00 0.33 28.0% +257
50 Carnell Tate thin prior (0 touches) TEN @ CIN WR 0.00 0.33 28.0% +257
51 DJ Moore ⚠ BUF vs BAL WR 0.00 0.33 27.9% +259
52 TreVeyon Henderson NE @ MIA RB 0.28 0.04 27.4% +265
53 Malik Washington thin prior (43 touches) MIA vs NE WR 0.00 0.32 27.3% +266
54 Braelon Allen thin prior (37 touches) NYJ vs LV RB 0.25 0.07 27.2% +268
55 Rashee Rice KC @ DEN WR 0.00 0.32 27.2% +268
56 Garrett Wilson NYJ vs LV WR 0.00 0.31 26.5% +277
57 Jordan Mason MIN @ DET RB 0.25 0.06 26.5% +277
58 MarShawn Lloyd thin prior (2 touches) GB vs CAR RB 0.26 0.05 26.4% +278
59 Zay Flowers BAL @ BUF WR 0.00 0.30 26.3% +280
60 Blake Corum LA vs LAC RB 0.26 0.05 26.2% +281
61 Chris Rodriguez Jr. ⚠ JAX vs IND RB 0.28 0.03 26.1% +284
62 Courtland Sutton DEN vs KC WR 0.00 0.30 26.1% +284
63 Stefon Diggs ⚠ WAS vs PHI WR 0.00 0.30 25.8% +288
64 Tucker Kraft thin prior (51 touches) GB vs CAR TE 0.00 0.29 25.5% +291
65 RJ Harvey DEN vs KC RB 0.15 0.14 25.5% +293
66 Jayden Daniels WAS vs PHI QB 0.29 0.00 25.4% +294
67 Malik Willis thin prior (39 dropbacks) MIA vs NE QB 0.29 0.00 25.4% +294
68 Jalen Coker thin prior (35 touches) CAR @ GB WR 0.00 0.29 25.2% +297
69 Denzel Boston thin prior (0 touches) CLE @ PIT WR 0.00 0.29 25.1% +298
70 Jameson Williams DET vs MIN WR 0.00 0.29 24.9% +301
71 Justin Jefferson MIN @ DET WR 0.00 0.29 24.9% +301
72 Sam LaPorta DET vs MIN TE 0.00 0.29 24.9% +301
73 Dallas Goedert PHI @ WAS TE 0.00 0.28 24.7% +304
74 Tre Tucker LV @ NYJ WR 0.00 0.28 24.6% +306
75 Jordan Addison MIN @ DET WR 0.00 0.28 24.4% +309
76 Rome Odunze CHI @ SEA WR 0.00 0.27 23.9% +319
77 Tyler Allgeier ⚠ ARI @ DAL RB 0.22 0.05 23.9% +319
78 Brenton Strange thin prior (48 touches) JAX vs IND TE 0.00 0.27 23.8% +320
79 Deshaun Watson thin prior (112 dropbacks) CLE @ PIT QB 0.27 0.00 23.4% +328
80 Mark Andrews BAL @ BUF TE 0.00 0.27 23.3% +330
81 Quentin Johnston LAC @ LA WR 0.00 0.27 23.3% +330
82 Brian Robinson ⚠ ATL @ TB RB 0.23 0.04 23.1% +332
83 Josh Downs IND @ JAX WR 0.00 0.26 22.9% +337
84 KC Concepcion thin prior (0 touches) CLE @ PIT WR 0.00 0.26 22.9% +337
85 Jalen Nailor thin prior (40 touches) LV @ NYJ WR 0.00 0.26 22.7% +340
86 Tyler Goodson thin prior (17 touches) DAL vs ARI RB 0.21 0.05 22.7% +341
87 Chris Godwin Jr. TB vs ATL WR 0.00 0.25 22.4% +347
88 Kyle Monangai CHI @ SEA RB 0.21 0.04 22.3% +349
89 Ryan Flournoy thin prior (32 touches) DAL vs ARI WR 0.00 0.25 22.3% +349
90 Luther Burden III thin prior (30 touches) CHI @ SEA WR 0.00 0.25 22.1% +352
91 Rico Dowdle ⚠ PIT vs CLE RB 0.17 0.07 22.0% +355
92 Colston Loveland thin prior (41 touches) CHI @ SEA TE 0.00 0.25 21.9% +357
93 Hunter Henry NE @ MIA TE 0.00 0.24 21.7% +362
94 Khalil Shakir BUF vs BAL WR 0.00 0.24 21.7% +362
95 Kenny Gainwell ⚠ TB vs ATL RB 0.17 0.07 21.4% +367
96 Jonah Coleman thin prior (0 touches) DEN vs KC RB 0.20 0.04 21.3% +369
97 Dontayvion Wicks ⚠ PHI @ WAS WR 0.00 0.24 21.3% +370
98 Drake Maye NE @ MIA QB 0.24 0.00 21.2% +372
99 Ladd McConkey LAC @ LA WR 0.00 0.24 21.2% +372
100 Dalton Kincaid BUF vs BAL TE 0.00 0.24 21.0% +376
101 Bo Nix DEN vs KC QB 0.23 0.00 20.9% +377
102 Harold Fannin Jr. thin prior (54 touches) CLE @ PIT TE 0.00 0.23 20.9% +377
103 AJ Barner thin prior (45 touches) SEA vs CHI TE 0.00 0.23 20.8% +381
104 Aaron Jones MIN @ DET RB 0.17 0.06 20.7% +383
105 Trevor Lawrence JAX vs IND QB 0.23 0.00 20.7% +383
106 Caleb Douglas thin prior (0 touches) MIA vs NE WR 0.00 0.23 20.6% +385
107 Xavier Worthy KC @ DEN WR 0.00 0.23 20.5% +389
108 Keaton Mitchell thin prior (43 touches) LAC @ LA RB 0.17 0.06 20.3% +392
109 DeMario Douglas NE @ MIA WR 0.00 0.23 20.2% +394
110 Germie Bernard thin prior (0 touches) PIT vs CLE WR 0.00 0.22 20.1% +398
111 Jake Ferguson DAL vs ARI TE 0.00 0.22 20.1% +398
112 Jakobi Meyers JAX vs IND WR 0.00 0.22 19.9% +402
113 Tyler Higbee thin prior (36 touches) LA vs LAC TE 0.00 0.22 19.8% +404
114 Lamar Jackson BAL @ BUF QB 0.22 0.00 19.7% +408
115 Tyler Warren IND @ JAX TE 0.00 0.22 19.6% +411
116 Wan'Dale Robinson ⚠ TEN @ CIN WR 0.00 0.22 19.6% +411
117 Cade Otton TB vs ATL TE 0.00 0.22 19.5% +413
118 Keenan Allen ⚠ IND @ JAX WR 0.00 0.21 19.3% +417
119 Travis Kelce KC @ DEN TE 0.00 0.21 19.3% +417
120 Charlie Kolar thin prior (13 touches) LAC @ LA TE 0.00 0.21 19.0% +426
121 Savion Williams thin prior (5 touches) GB vs CAR WR 0.00 0.21 18.8% +433
122 T.J. Hockenson MIN @ DET TE 0.00 0.21 18.8% +433
123 Kyle Pitts ATL @ TB TE 0.00 0.21 18.7% +435
124 Greg Dulcich thin prior (21 touches) MIA vs NE TE 0.00 0.20 18.5% +440
125 Justin Herbert LAC @ LA QB 0.20 0.00 18.4% +444
126 Kendrick Bourne thin prior (49 touches) ARI @ DAL WR 0.00 0.20 18.2% +449
127 Omar Cooper Jr. thin prior (0 touches) NYJ vs LV WR 0.00 0.20 18.0% +457
128 Keon Coleman thin prior (47 touches) BUF vs BAL WR 0.00 0.20 17.9% +459
129 Rashid Shaheed SEA vs CHI WR 0.00 0.20 17.8% +462
130 Tyjae Spears TEN @ CIN RB 0.13 0.06 17.8% +462
131 Konata Mumpfield thin prior (12 touches) LA vs LAC WR 0.00 0.19 17.6% +470
132 Matthew Golden* thin prior (22 touches) GB vs CAR WR Q · 72% 0.00 0.19 17.6% +470
133 Pat Freiermuth PIT vs CLE TE 0.00 0.19 17.5% +472
134 Trevor Etienne thin prior (10 touches) CAR @ GB RB 0.15 0.04 17.5% +472
135 Antonio Williams thin prior (0 touches) WAS vs PHI WR 0.00 0.19 17.2% +481
136 Mike Gesicki thin prior (55 touches) CIN vs TEN TE 0.00 0.19 17.2% +481
137 Jahan Dotson thin prior (44 touches) ATL @ TB WR 0.00 0.19 17.1% +483
138 Isaac TeSlaa thin prior (14 touches) DET vs MIN WR 0.00 0.18 16.9% +492
139 Samaje Perine CIN vs TEN RB 0.14 0.04 16.8% +495
140 Rashod Bateman thin prior (52 touches) BAL @ BUF WR 0.00 0.18 16.6% +501
141 Ted Hurst III thin prior (0 touches) TB vs ATL WR 0.00 0.18 16.4% +510
142 Tre Harris thin prior (22 touches) LAC @ LA WR 0.00 0.18 16.4% +510
143 Caleb Williams CHI @ SEA QB 0.18 0.00 16.3% +513
144 Chig Okonkwo ⚠ WAS vs PHI TE 0.00 0.18 16.3% +513
145 Mike Washington Jr. thin prior (0 touches) LV @ NYJ RB 0.15 0.03 16.2% +516
146 Tommy Tremble thin prior (34 touches) CAR @ GB TE 0.00 0.17 16.1% +523
147 Tanner McKee thin prior (37 dropbacks) PHI @ WAS QB 0.17 0.00 15.9% +529
148 Brian Thomas Jr. JAX vs IND WR 0.00 0.17 15.8% +533
149 Justice Hill thin prior (40 touches) BAL @ BUF RB 0.12 0.05 15.6% +540
150 Sione Vaki thin prior (2 touches) DET vs MIN RB 0.14 0.03 15.6% +540
151 Kyler Murray MIN @ DET QB 0.17 0.00 15.5% +543
152 Dohnte Meyers thin prior (0 touches) CIN vs TEN WR 0.00 0.17 15.4% +550
153 Ty Johnson thin prior (43 touches) BUF vs BAL RB 0.09 0.08 15.4% +550
154 Bam Knight thin prior (42 touches) ARI @ DAL RB 0.13 0.03 15.3% +554
155 Makai Lemon thin prior (0 touches) PHI @ WAS WR 0.00 0.17 15.2% +557
156 Dak Prescott DAL vs ARI QB 0.16 0.00 15.0% +565
157 Kalif Raymond thin prior (30 touches) CHI @ SEA WR 0.00 0.16 15.0% +565
158 Austin Ekeler WAS vs PHI RB 0.13 0.03 14.8% +576
159 Cam Ward TEN @ CIN QB 0.16 0.00 14.8% +576
160 Colby Parkinson thin prior (50 touches) LA vs LAC TE 0.00 0.16 14.6% +584
161 Tyler Huntley thin prior (90 dropbacks) BAL @ BUF QB 0.16 0.00 14.6% +584
162 Pierre Strong thin prior (20 touches) GB vs CAR RB 0.11 0.05 14.5% +588
163 Sean Tucker TB vs ATL RB 0.14 0.01 14.5% +588
164 Joe Burrow CIN vs TEN QB 0.16 0.00 14.4% +592
165 Efton Chism III thin prior (2 touches) NE @ MIA WR 0.00 0.15 14.3% +601
166 Mason Taylor thin prior (32 touches) NYJ vs LV TE 0.00 0.15 14.3% +601
167 Adonai Mitchell thin prior (54 touches) NYJ vs LV WR 0.00 0.15 14.2% +605
168 Jaylen Wright MIA vs NE RB 0.13 0.02 14.2% +605
169 Chris Bell thin prior (0 touches) MIA vs NE WR 0.00 0.15 14.1% +609
170 Daniel Jones IND @ JAX QB 0.15 0.00 14.1% +609
171 Patrick Mahomes KC @ DEN QB 0.15 0.00 14.1% +609
172 Seth McGowan thin prior (0 touches) IND @ JAX RB 0.13 0.02 14.1% +609
173 Baker Mayfield TB vs ATL QB 0.15 0.00 14.0% +614
174 Emmett Johnson thin prior (0 touches) KC @ DEN RB 0.11 0.04 13.9% +618
175 Jacoby Brissett ARI @ DAL QB 0.15 0.00 13.8% +622
176 Cooper Kupp SEA vs CHI WR 0.00 0.15 13.7% +631
177 Dylan Sampson thin prior (32 touches) CLE @ PIT RB 0.10 0.05 13.7% +631
178 Gunnar Helm thin prior (28 touches) TEN @ CIN TE 0.00 0.15 13.7% +631
179 Kimani Vidal LAC @ LA RB 0.10 0.05 13.7% +631
180 Jerry Jeudy CLE @ PIT WR 0.00 0.15 13.6% +636
181 Michael Mayer thin prior (43 touches) LV @ NYJ TE 0.00 0.15 13.6% +636
182 Elic Ayomanor thin prior (44 touches) TEN @ CIN WR 0.00 0.14 13.5% +641
183 George Holani thin prior (12 touches) SEA vs CHI RB 0.10 0.04 13.5% +641
184 Reggie Virgil thin prior (0 touches) ARI @ DAL WR 0.00 0.14 13.4% +646
185 Laquon Treadwell thin prior (1 touches) IND @ JAX WR 0.00 0.14 13.2% +655
186 Darnell Washington thin prior (31 touches) PIT vs CLE TE 0.00 0.14 13.1% +665
187 Roschon Johnson thin prior (34 touches) CHI @ SEA RB 0.10 0.04 12.9% +676
188 Michael Penix Jr. ATL @ TB QB 0.14 0.00 12.8% +681
189 Jalon Daniels thin prior (0 dropbacks) TB vs ATL QB 0.14 0.00 12.7% +686
190 Cody White thin prior (3 touches) LV @ NYJ WR 0.00 0.14 12.6% +692
191 Treylon Burks thin prior (19 touches) WAS vs PHI WR 0.00 0.14 12.6% +692
192 Darren Waller thin prior (32 touches) CAR @ GB TE 0.00 0.13 12.2% +720
193 Mitchell Tinsley thin prior (12 touches) CIN vs TEN WR 0.00 0.13 12.0% +732
194 Tez Johnson thin prior (22 touches) TB vs ATL WR 0.00 0.13 12.0% +732
195 Evan Engram DEN vs KC TE 0.00 0.13 11.9% +738
196 Kevin Coleman Jr. thin prior (0 touches) MIA vs NE WR 0.00 0.13 11.9% +738
197 Bryce Young CAR @ GB QB 0.13 0.00 11.8% +745
198 Corey Kiner thin prior (6 touches) NE @ MIA RB 0.11 0.01 11.8% +745
199 Geno Smith NYJ vs LV QB 0.13 0.00 11.8% +745
200 Jauan Jennings ⚠ MIN @ DET WR 0.00 0.12 11.8% +751
201 Ja'Kobi Lane thin prior (0 touches) BAL @ BUF WR 0.00 0.12 11.7% +757
202 Jeremy McNichols thin prior (38 touches) WAS vs PHI RB 0.11 0.01 11.7% +757
203 Josh Cameron thin prior (0 touches) JAX vs IND WR 0.00 0.12 11.7% +757
204 KeAndre Lambert-Smith thin prior (6 touches) LAC @ LA WR 0.00 0.12 11.6% +764
205 Troy Franklin DEN vs KC WR 0.00 0.12 11.6% +764
206 Jared Goff DET vs MIN QB 0.12 0.00 11.2% +791
207 Kirk Cousins LV @ NYJ QB 0.12 0.00 11.2% +791
208 Kenyon Sadiq thin prior (0 touches) NYJ vs LV TE 0.00 0.12 11.0% +806
209 Oronde Gadsden II thin prior (34 touches) LAC @ LA TE 0.00 0.12 11.0% +813
210 Ben Skowronek thin prior (7 touches) PIT vs CLE WR 0.00 0.12 10.9% +821
211 Aaron Rodgers PIT vs CLE QB 0.11 0.00 10.8% +828
212 Kaleb Johnson thin prior (14 touches) GB vs CAR RB 0.10 0.01 10.8% +828
213 Olamide Zaccheaus ⚠ ATL @ TB WR 0.00 0.11 10.8% +828
214 Jalen Royals thin prior (2 touches) KC @ DEN WR 0.00 0.11 10.7% +836
215 Marvin Mims Jr. thin prior (48 touches) DEN vs KC WR 0.00 0.11 10.7% +836
216 Jordan Love GB vs CAR QB 0.11 0.00 10.4% +860
217 Tory Horton thin prior (11 touches) SEA vs CHI WR 0.00 0.11 10.4% +860
218 Matthew Stafford LA vs LAC QB 0.11 0.00 10.3% +868
219 Drew Sample thin prior (22 touches) CIN vs TEN TE 0.00 0.11 10.1% +894
220 Will Mallory thin prior (8 touches) IND @ JAX TE 0.00 0.10 10.0% +903
221 Eli Raridon thin prior (0 touches) NE @ MIA TE 0.00 0.10 9.7% +931
222 Noah Gray thin prior (41 touches) KC @ DEN TE 0.00 0.10 9.6% +941
223 John Metchie III thin prior (41 touches) CAR @ GB WR 0.00 0.10 9.5% +951
224 Kaytron Allen thin prior (0 touches) MIA vs NE RB 0.09 0.01 9.4% +961
225 Brycen Tremayne thin prior (9 touches) CAR @ GB WR 0.00 0.10 9.2% +992
226 Marcus Mariota thin prior (141 dropbacks) WAS vs PHI QB 0.10 0.00 9.1% +1003
227 Kyle Williams thin prior (10 touches) NE @ MIA WR 0.00 0.09 9.0% +1015
228 Dawson Knox thin prior (42 touches) BUF vs BAL TE 0.00 0.09 8.9% +1026
229 Tim Patrick thin prior (25 touches) NYJ vs LV WR 0.00 0.09 8.9% +1026
230 Brevyn Spann-Ford thin prior (11 touches) DAL vs ARI TE 0.00 0.09 8.7% +1050
231 Dyami Brown thin prior (35 touches) WAS vs PHI WR 0.00 0.09 8.5% +1074
232 Darius Cooper thin prior (6 touches) PHI @ WAS WR 0.00 0.09 8.3% +1100
233 Ashton Dulin thin prior (7 touches) IND @ JAX WR 0.00 0.09 8.1% +1127
234 Adam Trautman thin prior (25 touches) DEN vs KC TE 0.00 0.08 8.1% +1141
235 Bo Melton ⚠ GB vs CAR WR 0.00 0.08 8.0% +1156
236 Jordan Whittington thin prior (21 touches) LA vs LAC WR 0.00 0.08 8.0% +1156
237 Calvin Ridley TEN @ CIN WR 0.00 0.08 7.9% +1170
238 Jaleel McLaughlin ⚠ CLE @ PIT RB 0.05 0.03 7.8% +1185
239 Elijah Higgins thin prior (30 touches) ARI @ DAL TE 0.00 0.08 7.7% +1201
240 Gavin Bartholomew thin prior (0 touches) MIN @ DET TE 0.00 0.08 7.7% +1201
241 Isaiah Bond thin prior (22 touches) CLE @ PIT WR 0.00 0.08 7.7% +1201
242 Devontez Walker thin prior (5 touches) BAL @ BUF WR 0.00 0.08 7.6% +1216
243 Sam Darnold SEA vs CHI QB 0.08 0.00 7.6% +1216
244 Josh Palmer thin prior (50 touches) BUF vs BAL WR 0.00 0.08 7.5% +1233
245 Nate Boerkircher thin prior (0 touches) JAX vs IND TE 0.00 0.08 7.5% +1233
246 Daniel Bellinger thin prior (24 touches) TEN @ CIN TE 0.00 0.08 7.3% +1266
247 Payne Durham thin prior (8 touches) TB vs ATL TE 0.00 0.08 7.3% +1266
248 Carson Wentz thin prior (106 dropbacks) MIN @ DET QB 0.07 0.00 7.2% +1284
249 Davis Allen thin prior (23 touches) LA vs LAC TE 0.00 0.07 7.2% +1284
250 KaVontae Turpin thin prior (38 touches) DAL vs ARI WR 0.00 0.07 7.2% +1284
251 Isaiah Davis thin prior (30 touches) NYJ vs LV RB 0.05 0.02 7.0% +1320
252 Ray Davis BUF vs BAL RB 0.05 0.02 6.9% +1339
253 Zachariah Branch thin prior (0 touches) ATL @ TB WR 0.00 0.07 6.9% +1339
254 Jaydn Ott thin prior (0 touches) KC @ DEN RB 0.06 0.02 6.9% +1359
255 DJ Giddens thin prior (13 touches) IND @ JAX RB 0.05 0.02 6.8% +1379
256 Tai Felton thin prior (2 touches) MIN @ DET WR 0.00 0.07 6.7% +1400
257 Tutu Atwell thin prior (40 touches) LA vs LAC WR 0.00 0.07 6.6% +1421
258 Audric Estimé thin prior (46 touches) CLE @ PIT RB 0.05 0.01 6.5% +1443
259 Austin Hooper thin prior (37 touches) ATL @ TB TE 0.00 0.07 6.5% +1443
260 Cyrus Allen thin prior (0 touches) KC @ DEN WR 0.00 0.07 6.4% +1466
261 Anthony Tyus III thin prior (0 touches) CAR @ GB RB 0.05 0.01 6.1% +1538
262 Brock Wright thin prior (19 touches) DET vs MIN TE 0.00 0.06 6.1% +1538
263 Mark Redman thin prior (0 touches) GB vs CAR TE 0.00 0.06 6.1% +1538
264 Velus Jones Jr. thin prior (2 touches) SEA vs CHI RB 0.04 0.02 6.1% +1538
265 Will Kacmarek thin prior (0 touches) MIA vs NE TE 0.00 0.06 6.1% +1538
266 Blake Whiteheart thin prior (6 touches) CLE @ PIT TE 0.00 0.06 6.0% +1563
267 Dont'e Thornton Jr. thin prior (15 touches) LV @ NYJ WR 0.00 0.06 6.0% +1563
268 LeQuint Allen Jr. thin prior (12 touches) JAX vs IND RB 0.04 0.03 6.0% +1563
269 Charlie Woerner thin prior (9 touches) ATL @ TB TE 0.00 0.06 5.9% +1590
270 Isaiah Williams thin prior (19 touches) NYJ vs LV WR 0.00 0.06 5.9% +1590
271 Tyson Bagent thin prior (32 dropbacks) CHI @ SEA QB 0.06 0.00 5.9% +1590
272 Jared Wayne thin prior (1 touches) MIA vs NE WR 0.00 0.06 5.6% +1675
273 Mason Rudolph thin prior (115 dropbacks) PIT vs CLE QB 0.06 0.00 5.6% +1675
274 Nate Adkins thin prior (11 touches) DEN vs KC TE 0.00 0.06 5.5% +1705
275 Travis Homer thin prior (2 touches) PIT vs CLE RB 0.05 0.01 5.5% +1705
276 Jalen Tolbert thin prior (48 touches) MIA vs NE WR 0.00 0.06 5.4% +1736
277 Lil'Jordan Humphrey thin prior (30 touches) DEN vs KC WR 0.00 0.06 5.4% +1736
278 Anthony Richardson thin prior (103 dropbacks) IND @ JAX QB 0.06 0.00 5.4% +1769
279 Demond Claiborne thin prior (0 touches) MIN @ DET RB 0.04 0.01 5.4% +1769
280 Jeremy Ruckert thin prior (27 touches) NYJ vs LV TE 0.00 0.06 5.4% +1769
281 Tahj Brooks thin prior (8 touches) CIN vs TEN RB 0.04 0.01 5.4% +1769
282 Ben Sinnott thin prior (8 touches) WAS vs PHI TE 0.00 0.05 5.3% +1802
283 Kenny Pickett thin prior (110 dropbacks) CAR @ GB QB 0.05 0.00 5.3% +1802
284 Joe Milton III thin prior (21 dropbacks) PHI @ WAS QB 0.05 0.00 5.2% +1837
285 Chimere Dike thin prior (37 touches) TEN @ CIN WR 0.00 0.05 5.1% +1874
286 Josh Cuevas thin prior (0 touches) BAL @ BUF TE 0.00 0.05 5.1% +1874
287 Mitchell Evans thin prior (12 touches) CAR @ GB TE 0.00 0.05 5.1% +1874
288 Sam Roush thin prior (0 touches) CHI @ SEA TE 0.00 0.05 5.1% +1874
289 Johnny Mundt thin prior (22 touches) PHI @ WAS TE 0.00 0.05 5.0% +1911
290 Marquise Brown ⚠ PHI @ WAS WR 0.00 0.05 5.0% +1911
291 Athan Kaliakmanis thin prior (0 dropbacks) WAS vs PHI QB 0.05 0.00 4.9% +1950
292 Dylan Laube thin prior (4 touches) LV @ NYJ RB 0.04 0.01 4.9% +1950
293 John Bates thin prior (18 touches) WAS vs PHI TE 0.00 0.05 4.9% +1950
294 Nicholas Singleton thin prior (0 touches) TEN @ CIN RB 0.04 0.01 4.9% +1950
295 Travis Hunter ⚠ JAX vs IND WR 0.00 0.05 4.9% +1950
296 Ameer Abdullah thin prior (30 touches) JAX vs IND RB 0.03 0.01 4.8% +1991
297 Dean Connors thin prior (0 touches) LA vs LAC RB 0.04 0.01 4.8% +1991
298 Matthew Hibner thin prior (0 touches) BAL @ BUF TE 0.00 0.05 4.8% +1991
299 Rasheen Ali thin prior (6 touches) BAL @ BUF RB 0.04 0.01 4.7% +2034
300 Brenen Thompson thin prior (0 touches) LAC @ LA WR 0.00 0.05 4.6% +2078
301 Jonathan Mingo thin prior (32 touches) DAL vs ARI WR 0.00 0.05 4.6% +2078
302 Sam Howell thin prior (141 dropbacks) DAL vs ARI QB 0.05 0.00 4.6% +2078
303 Tyrod Taylor thin prior (120 dropbacks) GB vs CAR QB 0.05 0.00 4.6% +2078
304 Luke Schoonmaker thin prior (25 touches) DAL vs ARI TE 0.00 0.05 4.5% +2124
305 Zavion Thomas thin prior (0 touches) CHI @ SEA WR 0.00 0.05 4.5% +2124
306 Mo Alie-Cox thin prior (21 touches) IND @ JAX TE 0.00 0.04 4.4% +2173
307 Myles Price thin prior (0 touches) MIN @ DET WR 0.00 0.04 4.4% +2173
308 Eric Saubert thin prior (8 touches) SEA vs CHI TE 0.00 0.04 4.3% +2223
309 Case Keenum thin prior (12 dropbacks) CHI @ SEA QB 0.04 0.00 4.2% +2276
310 Tommy DeVito thin prior (58 dropbacks) NE @ MIA QB 0.04 0.00 4.1% +2331
311 Hunter Luepke thin prior (13 touches) DAL vs ARI FB 0.02 0.02 4.0% +2389
312 Colbie Young thin prior (0 touches) CIN vs TEN WR 0.00 0.04 3.8% +2514
313 Jacob Saylors thin prior (1 touches) DET vs MIN RB 0.03 0.01 3.8% +2514
314 Kyle McCord thin prior (0 dropbacks) MIA vs NE QB 0.04 0.00 3.8% +2514
315 Quinn Ewers thin prior (46 dropbacks) JAX vs IND QB 0.04 0.00 3.8% +2514
316 Stetson Bennett thin prior (0 dropbacks) LA vs LAC QB 0.04 0.00 3.8% +2514
317 Deion Burks thin prior (0 touches) IND @ JAX WR 0.00 0.04 3.7% +2582
318 Drew Lock thin prior (76 dropbacks) SEA vs CHI QB 0.04 0.00 3.7% +2582
319 Fernando Mendoza thin prior (0 dropbacks) LV @ NYJ QB 0.04 0.00 3.7% +2582
320 Joshua Dobbs thin prior (109 dropbacks) DET vs MIN QB 0.04 0.00 3.7% +2582
321 Malik Benson thin prior (0 touches) LV @ NYJ WR 0.00 0.04 3.7% +2582
322 Teagan Quitoriano thin prior (1 touches) ARI @ DAL TE 0.00 0.04 3.7% +2582
323 Cam Grandy thin prior (2 touches) CIN vs TEN TE 0.00 0.04 3.6% +2653
324 Kyle Allen thin prior (4 dropbacks) BUF vs BAL QB 0.04 0.00 3.6% +2653
325 Tay Martin thin prior (2 touches) DET vs MIN WR 0.00 0.04 3.6% +2653
326 David Moore thin prior (19 touches) CAR @ GB WR 0.00 0.04 3.5% +2728
327 Ian Thomas thin prior (10 touches) LV @ NYJ TE 0.00 0.04 3.5% +2728
328 Jarrett Stidham thin prior (15 dropbacks) DEN vs KC QB 0.04 0.00 3.4% +2807
329 Evan Hull thin prior (10 touches) ARI @ DAL RB 0.02 0.02 3.3% +2891
330 Chris Blair thin prior (1 touches) ATL @ TB WR 0.00 0.03 3.2% +2981
331 J. Michael Sturdivant thin prior (0 touches) GB vs CAR WR 0.00 0.03 3.2% +2981
332 Julius Chestnut thin prior (12 touches) TEN @ CIN RB 0.03 0.01 3.2% +2981
333 Simi Fehoko thin prior (5 touches) ARI @ DAL WR 0.00 0.03 3.1% +3075
334 Theo Wease Jr. thin prior (5 touches) LAC @ LA WR 0.00 0.03 3.1% +3075
335 DJ Uiagalelei thin prior (0 dropbacks) LAC @ LA QB 0.03 0.00 3.1% +3176
336 Josh Whyle thin prior (17 touches) GB vs CAR TE 0.00 0.03 3.1% +3176
337 Mitchell Trubisky thin prior (48 dropbacks) TEN @ CIN QB 0.03 0.00 3.1% +3176
338 CJ Daniels thin prior (0 touches) LA vs LAC WR 0.00 0.03 3.0% +3284
339 Jake Briningstool thin prior (0 touches) KC @ DEN TE 0.00 0.03 3.0% +3284
340 Robert Tonyan thin prior (4 touches) PIT vs CLE TE 0.00 0.03 3.0% +3284
341 Tanner Koziol thin prior (0 touches) JAX vs IND TE 0.00 0.03 3.0% +3284
342 Jahdae Walker thin prior (5 touches) CHI @ SEA WR 0.00 0.03 2.9% +3399
343 Joe Flacco CIN vs TEN QB 0.03 0.00 2.9% +3399
344 Nick Kallerup thin prior (0 touches) SEA vs CHI TE 0.00 0.03 2.9% +3399
345 Tylan Wallace thin prior (8 touches) CLE @ PIT WR 0.00 0.03 2.9% +3399
346 Andrew Armstrong thin prior (0 touches) KC @ DEN WR 0.00 0.03 2.8% +3522
347 Ben Yurosek thin prior (2 touches) MIN @ DET TE 0.00 0.03 2.8% +3522
348 David Martin-Robinson thin prior (4 touches) TEN @ CIN TE 0.00 0.03 2.8% +3522
349 Tyler Conklin thin prior (44 touches) DET vs MIN TE 0.00 0.03 2.8% +3522
350 Andrew Ogletree thin prior (11 touches) IND @ JAX TE 0.00 0.03 2.7% +3654
351 David Sills thin prior (18 touches) TB vs ATL WR 0.00 0.03 2.7% +3654
352 Jackson Hawes thin prior (10 touches) BUF vs BAL TE 0.00 0.03 2.7% +3654
353 Jelani Woods thin prior (2 touches) NYJ vs LV TE 0.00 0.03 2.7% +3654
354 Seydou Traore thin prior (0 touches) MIA vs NE TE 0.00 0.03 2.7% +3654
355 Shedeur Sanders thin prior (118 dropbacks) CLE @ PIT QB 0.03 0.00 2.7% +3654
356 Eli Stowers thin prior (0 touches) PHI @ WAS TE 0.00 0.03 2.6% +3796
357 Justin Fields KC @ DEN QB 0.03 0.00 2.6% +3796
358 LaJohntay Wester thin prior (0 touches) BAL @ BUF WR 0.00 0.03 2.6% +3796
359 Lew Nichols III thin prior (0 touches) PIT vs CLE RB 0.02 0.01 2.6% +3796
360 Luke McCaffrey thin prior (15 touches) WAS vs PHI WR 0.00 0.03 2.6% +3796
361 Cade Klubnik thin prior (0 dropbacks) NYJ vs LV QB 0.03 0.00 2.5% +3950
362 Gardner Minshew ARI @ DAL QB 0.03 0.00 2.5% +3950
363 Skyler Bell thin prior (0 touches) BUF vs BAL WR 0.00 0.03 2.5% +3950
364 Tua Tagovailoa ATL @ TB QB 0.02 0.00 2.4% +4117
365 Hayden Rucci thin prior (0 touches) LAC @ LA TE 0.00 0.02 2.3% +4298
366 Kaden Wetjen thin prior (0 touches) PIT vs CLE WR 0.00 0.02 2.3% +4298
367 Zavier Scott thin prior (16 touches) CHI @ SEA RB 0.01 0.01 2.2% +4496
368 Ko Kieft thin prior (1 touches) TB vs ATL TE 0.00 0.02 2.1% +4712
369 DeAndre Carter thin prior (6 touches) DET vs MIN WR 0.00 0.02 2.0% +4950
370 Irvin Charles thin prior (0 touches) SEA vs CHI WR 0.00 0.02 1.9% +5213
371 Jack Strand thin prior (0 dropbacks) ATL @ TB QB 0.02 0.00 1.9% +5213
372 Colson Yankoff thin prior (2 touches) WAS vs PHI TE 0.00 0.02 1.8% +5506
373 Kene Nwangwu thin prior (8 touches) NYJ vs LV RB 0.01 0.01 1.8% +5506
374 Brady Russell thin prior (0 touches) SEA vs CHI FB 0.01 0.01 1.7% +5832
375 Elijah Moore PHI @ WAS WR 0.00 0.02 1.7% +5832
376 Quintin Morris thin prior (8 touches) JAX vs IND TE 0.00 0.02 1.7% +5832
377 Michael Carter TEN @ CIN RB 0.01 0.01 1.6% +6200
378 Ben VanSumeren thin prior (0 touches) KC @ DEN FB 0.01 0.01 1.4% +7093
379 Cameron Latu thin prior (0 touches) NE @ MIA TE 0.00 0.01 1.4% +7093
380 Dareke Young thin prior (2 touches) LV @ NYJ WR 0.00 0.01 1.4% +7093
381 Derius Davis thin prior (10 touches) LAC @ LA WR 0.00 0.01 1.4% +7093
382 Elijah Sarratt thin prior (0 touches) BAL @ BUF WR 0.00 0.01 1.4% +7093
383 Greg Dortch thin prior (40 touches) BUF vs BAL WR 0.00 0.01 1.2% +8283
384 Nick Muse thin prior (0 touches) ATL @ TB TE 0.00 0.01 1.2% +8283
385 Kameron Johnson thin prior (4 touches) TB vs ATL WR 0.00 0.01 1.1% +9041
386 Nikko Remigio thin prior (2 touches) KC @ DEN WR 0.00 0.01 1.1% +9041

Fair odds are the vig-free American price of the model's own probability — a book's number will be shorter on both sides. These are model-derived fair values, not betting advice.