NFL Season Futures
Monte-Carlo projected win totals, playoff odds, and model lean vs market. Model n6-v1 · 100000 sims · updated 3d ago.
| # | Team | Div | Mean W | p25–p75 | Playoff% | Div% | Market | Lean | Fair O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | AFC North | 10.9 | 10.0–12.0 | 84% | 60% | 11.5 | Under | O 36% / U 64% |
| 2 | DET | NFC North | 10.8 | 10.0–12.0 | 81% | 56% | 10.5 | Over | O 59% / U 41% |
| 3 | SEA | NFC West | 10.5 | 9.0–12.0 | 78% | 52% | 10.5 | Over | O 51% / U 49% |
| 4 | DAL | NFC East | 9.8 | 8.0–11.0 | 68% | 46% | 9.5 | Over | O 55% / U 45% |
| 5 | HOU | AFC South | 9.7 | 8.0–11.0 | 67% | 49% | 9.5 | Over | O 53% / U 47% |
| 6 | BUF | AFC East | 9.6 | 8.0–11.0 | 65% | 44% | 10.5 | Under | O 35% / U 65% |
| 7 | KC | AFC West | 9.4 | 8.0–11.0 | 61% | 39% | 10.5 | Under | O 32% / U 68% |
| 8 | PHI | NFC East | 9.4 | 8.0–11.0 | 60% | 37% | 10.5 | Under | O 31% / U 69% |
| 9 | SF | NFC West | 9.4 | 8.0–11.0 | 58% | 27% | 10.5 | Under | O 31% / U 69% |
| 10 | DEN | AFC West | 9.3 | 8.0–11.0 | 59% | 37% | 9.5 | Under | O 47% / U 53% |
| 11 | GB | NFC North | 9.1 | 8.0–10.0 | 51% | 21% | 9.5 | Under | O 38% / U 62% |
| 12 | CIN | AFC North | 8.9 | 7.0–10.0 | 47% | 17% | 9.5 | Under | O 39% / U 61% |
| 13 | MIA | AFC East | 8.9 | 7.0–10.0 | 50% | 28% | 4.5 | Over | O 98% / U 2% |
| 14 | PIT | AFC North | 8.9 | 8.0–10.0 | 47% | 17% | 8.5 | Over | O 60% / U 40% |
| 15 | JAX | AFC South | 8.8 | 7.0–10.0 | 49% | 29% | 8.5 | Over | O 55% / U 45% |
| 16 | LA | NFC West | 8.7 | 7.0–10.0 | 44% | 17% | 11.5 | Under | O 10% / U 90% |
| 17 | MIN | NFC North | 8.6 | 7.0–10.0 | 42% | 15% | 8.5 | Over | O 52% / U 48% |
| 18 | TB | NFC South | 8.6 | 7.0–10.0 | 51% | 41% | 8.5 | Over | O 51% / U 49% |
| 19 | NE | AFC East | 8.5 | 7.0–10.0 | 42% | 22% | 10.5 | Under | O 18% / U 82% |
| 20 | IND | AFC South | 8.2 | 7.0–10.0 | 37% | 20% | 7.5 | Over | O 62% / U 38% |
| 21 | CHI | NFC North | 7.9 | 7.0–9.0 | 29% | 9% | 9.5 | Under | O 14% / U 86% |
| 22 | ATL | NFC South | 7.8 | 6.0–9.0 | 36% | 26% | 6.5 | Over | O 72% / U 28% |
| 23 | WAS | NFC East | 7.8 | 6.0–9.0 | 29% | 13% | 7.5 | Over | O 55% / U 45% |
| 24 | LV | AFC West | 7.7 | 6.0–9.0 | 27% | 12% | 5.5 | Over | O 84% / U 16% |
| 25 | LAC | AFC West | 7.6 | 6.0–9.0 | 25% | 12% | 9.5 | Under | O 19% / U 81% |
| 26 | NO | NFC South | 7.6 | 6.0–9.0 | 30% | 22% | 7.5 | Over | O 51% / U 49% |
| 27 | CLE | AFC North | 7.4 | 6.0–9.0 | 20% | 5% | 6.5 | Over | O 65% / U 35% |
| 28 | ARI | NFC West | 6.9 | 5.0–8.0 | 14% | 4% | 4.5 | Over | O 86% / U 14% |
| 29 | NYJ | AFC East | 6.7 | 5.0–8.0 | 13% | 5% | 5.5 | Over | O 70% / U 30% |
| 30 | CAR | NFC South | 6.6 | 5.0–8.0 | 16% | 11% | 7.5 | Under | O 34% / U 66% |
| 31 | NYG | NFC East | 6.3 | 5.0–8.0 | 10% | 4% | 7.5 | Under | O 30% / U 70% |
| 32 | TEN | AFC South | 5.8 | 4.0–7.0 | 7% | 3% | 6.5 | Under | O 38% / U 62% |
Market win totals are operator-maintained and used for comparison only — they are never fed into the model (SPEC §8). Fair O/U is the model's no-vig probability of the Over/Under. Model-derived fair values, not betting advice.