NFL Season Futures
Monte-Carlo projected win totals, playoff odds, and model lean vs market. Model n6-v1 · 10000 sims · updated 4d ago.
| # | Team | Div | Mean W | p25–p75 | Playoff% | Div% | Market | Lean | Fair O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | AFC North | 10.9 | 10.0–12.0 | 83% | 60% | 11.5 | Under | O 34% / U 66% |
| 2 | DET | NFC North | 10.8 | 9.0–12.0 | 81% | 56% | 10.5 | Over | O 55% / U 45% |
| 3 | SEA | NFC West | 10.5 | 9.0–12.0 | 77% | 52% | 8.5 | Over | O 81% / U 19% |
| 4 | BUF | AFC East | 9.7 | 8.0–11.0 | 66% | 44% | 11.5 | Under | O 20% / U 80% |
| 5 | DAL | NFC East | 9.7 | 8.0–11.0 | 66% | 42% | 8.5 | Over | O 70% / U 30% |
| 6 | HOU | AFC South | 9.6 | 8.0–11.0 | 67% | 49% | 9.5 | Over | O 52% / U 48% |
| 7 | PHI | NFC East | 9.6 | 8.0–11.0 | 62% | 38% | 11.5 | Under | O 19% / U 81% |
| 8 | DEN | AFC West | 9.4 | 8.0–11.0 | 60% | 37% | 9.5 | Under | O 48% / U 52% |
| 9 | KC | AFC West | 9.4 | 8.0–11.0 | 60% | 38% | 11.5 | Under | O 17% / U 83% |
| 10 | SF | NFC West | 9.3 | 8.0–11.0 | 56% | 26% | 10.5 | Under | O 29% / U 71% |
| 11 | GB | NFC North | 9.0 | 8.0–10.0 | 50% | 21% | 10.5 | Under | O 16% / U 84% |
| 12 | CIN | AFC North | 8.9 | 8.0–10.0 | 48% | 18% | 10.5 | Under | O 13% / U 87% |
| 13 | MIA | AFC East | 8.9 | 8.0–10.0 | 51% | 28% | 8.5 | Over | O 60% / U 40% |
| 14 | PIT | AFC North | 8.8 | 7.0–10.0 | 47% | 17% | 8.5 | Over | O 56% / U 44% |
| 15 | JAX | AFC South | 8.7 | 7.0–10.0 | 48% | 28% | 7.5 | Over | O 71% / U 29% |
| 16 | LA | NFC West | 8.6 | 7.0–10.0 | 43% | 18% | 9.5 | Under | O 34% / U 66% |
| 17 | ATL | NFC South | 8.5 | 7.0–10.0 | 49% | 37% | 8.5 | Over | O 51% / U 49% |
| 18 | MIN | NFC North | 8.5 | 7.0–10.0 | 40% | 15% | 8.5 | Over | O 51% / U 49% |
| 19 | NE | AFC East | 8.5 | 7.0–10.0 | 42% | 22% | 8.5 | Under | O 49% / U 51% |
| 20 | TB | NFC South | 8.5 | 7.0–10.0 | 48% | 36% | 9.5 | Under | O 33% / U 67% |
| 21 | IND | AFC South | 8.1 | 7.0–9.0 | 36% | 20% | 8.5 | Under | O 38% / U 62% |
| 22 | CHI | NFC North | 7.8 | 6.0–9.0 | 28% | 9% | 8.5 | Under | O 38% / U 62% |
| 23 | LV | AFC West | 7.7 | 6.0–9.0 | 28% | 13% | 6.5 | Over | O 71% / U 29% |
| 24 | WAS | NFC East | 7.6 | 6.0–9.0 | 24% | 11% | 9.5 | Under | O 19% / U 81% |
| 25 | LAC | AFC West | 7.5 | 6.0–9.0 | 25% | 11% | 9.5 | Under | O 18% / U 82% |
| 26 | NO | NFC South | 7.4 | 6.0–9.0 | 27% | 18% | — | — | — |
| 27 | NYG | NFC East | 7.4 | 6.0–9.0 | 21% | 9% | 6.5 | Over | O 65% / U 35% |
| 28 | CLE | AFC North | 7.2 | 6.0–9.0 | 19% | 5% | 5.5 | Over | O 78% / U 22% |
| 29 | ARI | NFC West | 6.7 | 5.0–8.0 | 13% | 4% | 8.5 | Under | O 21% / U 79% |
| 30 | NYJ | AFC East | 6.7 | 5.0–8.0 | 14% | 6% | 6.5 | Over | O 53% / U 47% |
| 31 | CAR | NFC South | 6.5 | 5.0–8.0 | 15% | 9% | 6.5 | Under | O 50% / U 50% |
| 32 | TEN | AFC South | 5.8 | 4.0–7.0 | 6% | 3% | 5.5 | Over | O 55% / U 45% |
Market win totals are operator-maintained and used for comparison only — they are never fed into the model (SPEC §8). Fair O/U is the model's no-vig probability of the Over/Under. Model-derived fair values, not betting advice.