NHL Results
Every game is graded from its immutable pregame snapshot, locked once both starting goalies were confirmed (earliest 90 minutes before puck drop) or at the 20-minute backstop with the unconfirmed side flagged. Graded only after the final is official. Markets settle on the final score (the shootout winner is credited one goal). n is shown beside every number.
Captured 216 · graded 213 · awaiting a final 3
Season to date · n = 213
| Measure | Model | Close | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline Brier (paired) | 0.2322 | 0.2300 | 213 |
| Moneyline Brier (all graded) | 0.2322 | — | 213 |
| Moneyline log loss | 0.6568 | — | 213 |
| Head-to-head (closer to the result) | 92 | 121 | 213 |
| Total: MAE / bias (goals) | 1.82 / -0.04 | 1.81 / -0.15 | 213 / 213 |
| Puck line (home −1.5) Brier | 0.2068 | — | 213 |
By goalie gate
| Gate | n | ML Brier | vs close (paired) |
|---|---|---|---|
| confirmed | 164 | 0.2311 | 0.2311 / 0.2320 (n 164) |
| backstop | 49 | 0.2358 | 0.2358 / 0.2234 (n 49) |
By model version
| Version | n | ML Brier |
|---|---|---|
| h1-v1 | 153 | 0.2326 |
| h1-v2 | 60 | 0.2312 |
Closing-line value
The line moved toward the model's number, open → close, in 50% of win-probability disagreements (n 111) and 15% of totals disagreements (n 106); 0 game(s) excluded (open and close were the same capture).
Graded games
| Date | Game | Gate | Model home | Close home | Final | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 | BUF @ ANA | backstop | 48.6% | 42.8% | 7–6 | 0.2366 |
| 2026-10-29 | VAN @ SJS | confirmed | 56.0% | 60.9% | 2–3 | 0.1933 |
| 2026-10-29 | OTT @ LAK | confirmed | 52.5% | 47.4% | 5–6 OT | 0.2259 |
| 2026-10-29 | WSH @ NSH | confirmed | 53.6% | 50.4% | 4–3 | 0.2874 |
| 2026-10-29 | NYI @ MIN | confirmed | 61.4% | 63.1% | 4–3 OT | 0.3772 |
| 2026-10-29 | MTL @ DAL | confirmed | 59.6% | 60.9% | 5–2 | 0.3550 |
| 2026-10-29 | BOS @ STL | confirmed | 53.0% | 51.1% | 1–4 | 0.2210 |
| 2026-10-29 | CHI @ DET | backstop | 62.8% | 59.3% | 1–4 | 0.1384 |
| 2026-10-29 | UTA @ PIT | backstop | 48.2% | 43.7% | 4–3 OT | 0.2326 |
| 2026-10-29 | CBJ @ CAR | confirmed | 66.7% | 69.1% | 2–3 | 0.1109 |
| 2026-10-29 | WPG @ TBL | confirmed | 63.8% | 65.7% | 4–6 | 0.1311 |
| 2026-10-28 | TOR @ SEA | backstop | 54.9% | 45.7% | 4–5 | 0.2035 |
| 2026-10-28 | NJD @ COL | confirmed | 58.1% | 57.2% | 2–5 | 0.1754 |
| 2026-10-28 | CGY @ EDM | confirmed | 57.7% | 61.6% | 0–4 | 0.1791 |
| 2026-10-28 | PHI @ WSH | confirmed | 66.4% | 68.1% | 2–5 | 0.1130 |
| 2026-10-27 | BUF @ SJS | confirmed | 44.5% | 42.8% | 2–0 | 0.1978 |
| 2026-10-27 | VAN @ ANA | backstop | 62.7% | 65.7% | 6–5 OT | 0.3933 |
| 2026-10-27 | OTT @ VGK | confirmed | 58.8% | 59.3% | 1–4 | 0.1696 |
| 2026-10-27 | MIN @ UTA | confirmed | 55.4% | 52.6% | 3–1 | 0.3071 |
| 2026-10-27 | LAK @ CHI | backstop | 50.1% | 50.4% | 1–2 | 0.2492 |
| 2026-10-27 | BOS @ CAR | backstop | 62.9% | 63.1% | 1–2 | 0.1374 |
| 2026-10-27 | FLA @ WPG | confirmed | 48.5% | 45.7% | 5–1 | 0.2353 |
| 2026-10-27 | NJD @ DAL | confirmed | 50.4% | 51.7% | 5–1 | 0.2545 |
| 2026-10-27 | NYI @ NSH | confirmed | 52.0% | 52.6% | 4–3 SO | 0.2707 |
| 2026-10-27 | MTL @ STL | confirmed | 51.3% | 48.9% | 2–0 | 0.2627 |
| 2026-10-27 | CBJ @ PHI | confirmed | 50.1% | 47.8% | 4–3 OT | 0.2508 |
| 2026-10-26 | DET @ EDM | confirmed | 54.4% | 61.6% | 4–3 SO | 0.2963 |
| 2026-10-26 | TOR @ CGY | backstop | 53.9% | 44.9% | 2–5 | 0.2123 |
| 2026-10-26 | LAK @ NYR | backstop | 53.3% | 55.1% | 6–3 | 0.2839 |
| 2026-10-25 | MIN @ VAN | confirmed | 42.6% | 35.5% | 4–2 | 0.1811 |
| 2026-10-25 | COL @ NSH | confirmed | 37.5% | 32.5% | 2–6 | 0.3908 |
| 2026-10-25 | MTL @ WPG | backstop | 51.9% | 48.3% | 2–1 | 0.2689 |
| 2026-10-25 | NYI @ DAL | confirmed | 56.3% | 62.2% | 3–6 | 0.1906 |
| 2026-10-25 | FLA @ CHI | confirmed | 41.9% | 37.8% | 3–2 | 0.1753 |
| 2026-10-24 | MIN @ SEA | confirmed | 45.1% | 37.8% | 5–1 | 0.2030 |
| 2026-10-24 | DET @ CGY | confirmed | 48.6% | 45.7% | 1–4 | 0.2645 |
| 2026-10-24 | TBL @ UTA | confirmed | 60.6% | 57.2% | 4–5 OT | 0.1551 |
| 2026-10-24 | CAR @ STL | confirmed | 43.4% | 41.7% | 4–0 | 0.1884 |
| 2026-10-24 | VGK @ CBJ | confirmed | 45.6% | 44.9% | 1–2 OT | 0.2957 |
| 2026-10-24 | TOR @ EDM | confirmed | 57.7% | 58.3% | 7–2 | 0.3326 |
| 2026-10-24 | BUF @ WSH | confirmed | 53.2% | 52.2% | 3–4 OT | 0.2194 |
| 2026-10-24 | NSH @ PIT | confirmed | 61.6% | 53.2% | 2–3 OT | 0.1478 |
| 2026-10-24 | NYR @ OTT | confirmed | 56.0% | 53.2% | 4–7 | 0.1935 |
| 2026-10-24 | SJS @ BOS | confirmed | 61.3% | 63.1% | 4–6 | 0.1500 |
| 2026-10-24 | LAK @ NJD | confirmed | 59.3% | 64.5% | 1–3 | 0.1658 |
| 2026-10-24 | ANA @ PHI | confirmed | 52.0% | 52.6% | 5–4 | 0.2706 |
| 2026-10-23 | TBL @ COL | confirmed | 53.2% | 52.6% | 3–6 | 0.2190 |
| 2026-10-23 | MTL @ CHI | confirmed | 45.5% | 39.6% | 4–1 | 0.2067 |
| 2026-10-22 | DET @ VAN | confirmed | 42.2% | 39.6% | 5–2 | 0.1782 |
| 2026-10-22 | UTA @ SEA | confirmed | 41.0% | 38.4% | 3–5 | 0.3487 |
| 2026-10-22 | CAR @ EDM | confirmed | 45.0% | 44.9% | 5–6 SO | 0.3024 |
| 2026-10-22 | MIN @ CGY | confirmed | 44.9% | 34.3% | 1–2 | 0.3037 |
| 2026-10-22 | WPG @ DAL | confirmed | 58.2% | 64.5% | 2–3 OT | 0.1746 |
| 2026-10-22 | VGK @ STL | confirmed | 46.8% | 46.8% | 2–6 | 0.2831 |
| 2026-10-22 | LAK @ NYI | confirmed | 50.8% | 48.9% | 3–2 OT | 0.2579 |
| 2026-10-22 | NSH @ BOS | confirmed | 55.2% | 58.3% | 0–6 | 0.2008 |
| 2026-10-22 | FLA @ PIT | confirmed | 58.3% | 49.6% | 0–4 | 0.1741 |
| 2026-10-22 | ANA @ NJD | confirmed | 63.5% | 65.7% | 1–4 | 0.1334 |
| 2026-10-22 | SJS @ OTT | confirmed | 57.2% | 55.1% | 6–2 | 0.3270 |
| 2026-10-22 | NYR @ TOR | confirmed | 48.1% | 49.6% | 4–5 | 0.2691 |
| 2026-10-21 | FLA @ OTT | backstop | 50.8% | 50.0% | 1–5 | 0.2421 |
| 2026-10-21 | PHI @ BUF | confirmed | 61.1% | 65.7% | 3–1 | 0.3737 |
| 2026-10-20 | TBL @ VGK | confirmed | 52.6% | 50.0% | 6–2 | 0.2770 |
| 2026-10-20 | CAR @ VAN | confirmed | 34.8% | 28.2% | 6–3 | 0.1209 |
| 2026-10-20 | DET @ SEA | confirmed | 50.5% | 47.4% | 3–4 SO | 0.2449 |
| 2026-10-20 | MIN @ EDM | confirmed | 52.8% | 55.1% | 3–4 OT | 0.2224 |
| 2026-10-20 | BOS @ DAL | confirmed | 57.2% | 60.4% | 2–3 OT | 0.1830 |
| 2026-10-20 | WPG @ STL | confirmed | 54.6% | 55.1% | 1–2 | 0.2064 |
| 2026-10-20 | TOR @ CBJ | confirmed | 62.5% | 60.0% | 6–2 | 0.3905 |
| 2026-10-20 | LAK @ WSH | confirmed | 54.2% | 59.3% | 5–2 | 0.2940 |
| 2026-10-20 | ANA @ NYI | confirmed | 59.7% | 58.3% | 2–3 | 0.1623 |
| 2026-10-20 | COL @ NJD | confirmed | 56.5% | 52.2% | 3–4 | 0.1891 |
| 2026-10-20 | SJS @ MTL | confirmed | 65.8% | 66.4% | 4–3 OT | 0.4324 |
| 2026-10-19 | PIT @ UTA | confirmed | 57.0% | 62.2% | 4–5 | 0.1852 |
| 2026-10-19 | SJS @ TOR | confirmed | 56.8% | 55.1% | 1–3 | 0.1863 |
| 2026-10-19 | COL @ PHI | confirmed | 38.7% | 32.5% | 2–3 | 0.3762 |
| 2026-10-19 | ANA @ NYR | confirmed | 55.4% | 58.3% | 2–5 | 0.1992 |
| 2026-10-18 | CAR @ CGY | confirmed | 46.5% | 33.6% | 2–3 | 0.2863 |
| 2026-10-18 | CBJ @ MIN | confirmed | 61.0% | 63.1% | 1–2 | 0.1519 |
| 2026-10-17 | PIT @ VGK | confirmed | 61.4% | 65.7% | 2–6 | 0.1489 |
| 2026-10-17 | EDM @ UTA | confirmed | 60.0% | 57.2% | 6–2 | 0.3603 |
| 2026-10-17 | BOS @ LAK | confirmed | 61.2% | 55.1% | 4–1 | 0.3751 |
| 2026-10-17 | STL @ NSH | confirmed | 50.6% | 48.9% | 2–5 | 0.2441 |
| 2026-10-17 | BUF @ MTL | backstop | 52.1% | 56.3% | 3–4 OT | 0.2293 |
| 2026-10-17 | NYI @ TOR | confirmed | 49.2% | 55.1% | 4–1 | 0.2419 |
| 2026-10-17 | DAL @ CHI | confirmed | 42.2% | 34.3% | 4–0 | 0.1778 |
| 2026-10-17 | NYR @ CBJ | confirmed | 56.8% | 55.1% | 0–1 OT | 0.1867 |
| 2026-10-17 | OTT @ PHI | confirmed | 46.5% | 41.7% | 1–3 | 0.2858 |
| 2026-10-17 | SJS @ DET | confirmed | 62.2% | 57.2% | 3–4 SO | 0.1426 |
| 2026-10-17 | SEA @ FLA | confirmed | 60.0% | 62.2% | 3–8 | 0.1599 |
| 2026-10-17 | VAN @ TBL | confirmed | 68.6% | 76.0% | 2–4 | 0.0984 |
| 2026-10-17 | CAR @ WPG | confirmed | 42.8% | 35.5% | 3–2 | 0.1833 |
| 2026-10-17 | NJD @ WSH | confirmed | 51.9% | 51.7% | 2–4 | 0.2318 |
| 2026-10-16 | BOS @ ANA | confirmed | 54.8% | 49.6% | 4–2 | 0.3004 |
| 2026-10-16 | PIT @ COL | confirmed | 59.8% | 64.5% | 2–5 | 0.1619 |
| 2026-10-15 | CGY @ VGK | confirmed | 65.1% | 71.0% | 2–6 | 0.1219 |
| 2026-10-15 | UTA @ EDM | confirmed | 47.2% | 48.9% | 4–2 | 0.2224 |
| 2026-10-15 | STL @ MIN | confirmed | 55.0% | 56.3% | 4–5 | 0.2023 |
| 2026-10-15 | SJS @ NSH | confirmed | 57.4% | 54.3% | 3–2 SO | 0.3295 |
| 2026-10-15 | WPG @ CHI | confirmed | 47.9% | 46.8% | 3–4 OT | 0.2713 |
Starting-goalie calls · ESPN's call vs the NHL boxscore starter, per team-game
| ESPN call | Right | n | Hit rate | 95% CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Confirmed (standing at T−90) | 337 | 337 | 100.0% | 99–100% |
| Expected (standing at T−90) | 75 | 95 | 79.0% | 70–86% |
| Confirmed (final pregame call) | 417 | 417 | 100.0% | 99–100% |
| Expected (final pregame call) | 12 | 15 | 80.0% | 55–93% |
432 team-games (216 games) · first Confirmed a median 410 min before puck drop · 78% Confirmed by T−90 · Confirmed calls later changed: 1/417
Snapshot gate: confirmed-only; Expected waits for the T-20 backstop (measured 2026-10-16: Expected at T-90 right 43/54 = 79.6%, below the 95% early-lock bar; Confirmed at T-90 right 182/182).
Live next goal · one row per goal segment, locked at segment start
Nothing graded: the live model (nhl-live-1) failed its pre-declared fit gates, so it makes no public next-goal calls. This ledger starts with the first live model that passes its gates.
Locked, awaiting a final
- 2026-10-30 NJD @ VGK · backstop · model home 53.1%
- 2026-10-30 WPG @ FLA · backstop · model home 63.5%
- 2026-10-30 SEA @ CGY · backstop · model home 52.9%