Accountability
Projected vs. actual DK points. Change date: /results?date=YYYY-MM-DD · window: &days=30
Single day — 2026-08-01
No graded projections for 2026-08-01 yet (need both projections and actuals).
Rolling 30-day trend
Single-slate numbers are noisy — this is the honest read. Hitters and pitchers are graded separately.
Pooled by model version (pre/post-gate eras kept separate)
| Model | Hitter MAE | Hitter r | Hitter n | Pitcher MAE | Pitcher r | Pitcher n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
v1 |
5.342 | 0.2226 | 2864 | 4.712 | 0.428 | 1253 |
v1.1 |
5.24 | 0.2563 | 4914 | 4.52 | 0.5649 | 2101 |
MAE by day (lower better; y-max 7.89)
Correlation by day (higher better; 0–1)
hitters · pitchers
| Date | Model | Hitter MAE | Hitter r | Hitter n | Pitcher MAE | Pitcher r | Pitcher n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | v1.1 | 5.368 | 0.2772 | 446 | 5.272 | 0.4266 | 158 |
| 2026-07-30 | v1.1 | 4.501 | 0.3283 | 259 | 3.368 | 0.6529 | 108 |
| 2026-07-29 | v1.1 | 4.617 | 0.2203 | 381 | 3.711 | 0.7304 | 172 |
| 2026-07-28 | v1.1 | 5.457 | 0.2227 | 398 | 4.52 | 0.6187 | 175 |
| 2026-07-27 | v1.1 | 5.403 | 0.137 | 256 | 4.533 | 0.3851 | 120 |
| 2026-07-26 | v1.1 | 5.558 | 0.3625 | 367 | 5.109 | 0.6082 | 168 |
| 2026-07-25 | v1.1 | 4.851 | 0.2226 | 281 | 5.284 | 0.619 | 95 |
| 2026-07-24 | v1.1 | 5.002 | 0.1188 | 366 | 4.263 | 0.5318 | 174 |
| 2026-07-23 | v1.1 | 4.894 | 0.1366 | 100 | 4.567 | 0.7398 | 44 |
| 2026-07-22 | v1.1 | 5.347 | 0.1828 | 495 | 4.453 | 0.5406 | 233 |
| 2026-07-21 | v1.1 | 5.076 | 0.3033 | 442 | 4.61 | 0.545 | 178 |
| 2026-07-20 | v1.1 | 5.492 | 0.2326 | 441 | 4.126 | 0.5333 | 182 |
| 2026-07-19 | v1.1 | 5.548 | 0.3318 | 370 | 4.986 | 0.5587 | 156 |
| 2026-07-18 | v1.1 | 5.721 | 0.248 | 312 | 4.611 | 0.5851 | 138 |
| 2026-07-17 | v1 | 5.947 | 0.0931 | 440 | 5.829 | 0.0281 | 194 |
| 2026-07-12 | v1 | 4.654 | 0.2632 | 362 | 3.82 | 0.5578 | 173 |
| 2026-07-11 | v1 | 5.007 | 0.219 | 243 | 3.719 | 0.6292 | 102 |
| 2026-07-10 | v1 | 5.058 | 0.2632 | 469 | 4.294 | 0.5043 | 210 |
| 2026-07-09 | v1 | 5.589 | 0.2821 | 277 | 4.273 | 0.5803 | 119 |
| 2026-07-08 | v1 | 5.373 | 0.1859 | 314 | 4.708 | 0.5321 | 135 |
| 2026-07-07 | v1 | 5.324 | 0.1344 | 374 | 5.598 | 0.2245 | 171 |
| 2026-07-06 | v1 | 5.51 | 0.3501 | 203 | 5.11 | 0.6202 | 73 |
| 2026-07-05 | v1 | 7.175 | 0.0945 | 22 | 4.527 | 0.6719 | 9 |
| 2026-07-04 | v1 | 5.669 | 0.3779 | 160 | 4.717 | 0.5361 | 67 |
Live Model
Pregame win-probability and total accuracy from graded snapshots. Confirmed snapshots (lineups + starters posted) are the headline; provisional ones are segregated. Metrics are broken out by model version so pre-fix and post-fix eras never blend. Brier lower is better; skill (vs the 0.5 coin-flip baseline) higher is better; bias is mean signed total error (+ = over-projection).
Model live-2
Provisional (n 2): Brier 0.3038 · skill -0.2153 · total MAE 10.236 · bias 10.236
Confirmed — Model vs Market (paired sample, n 160)
| Metric | Model | Closing line |
|---|---|---|
| Win-prob Brier (n 160) | 0.252 | 0.2482 |
| Total MAE (n 160) | 4.063 | 3.647 |
| Total bias (signed) | 1.294 | -0.047 |
Market-relative skill -0.0153 (>0 = model beats the close) · Head-to-head: model win prob closer in 48.8% (78/160 games)
Win prob (model↔open disagreement ≥ 3.0 pp; n 110): close moved toward model in 34.5% · mean |open−close| 0.0115 vs mean |model−close| 0.0851
Total (model↔open disagreement ≥ 0.5 runs; n 119): close moved toward model in 12.6% · mean |open−close| 0.1261 vs mean |model−close| 1.7399
Excluded 9 cold-start game(s) — a single pregame line (open = close), no movement to measure.
Provisional — Model vs Market (paired sample, n 2)
| Metric | Model | Closing line |
|---|---|---|
| Win-prob Brier (n 2) | 0.3038 | 0.2968 |
| Total MAE (n 2) | 10.236 | 9.25 |
| Total bias (signed) | 10.236 | 9.25 |
Market-relative skill -0.0236 (>0 = model beats the close) · Head-to-head: model win prob closer in 50.0% (1/2 games)
Win prob (model↔open disagreement ≥ 3.0 pp; n 1): close moved toward model in 100.0% · mean |open−close| 0.0134 vs mean |model−close| 0.0489
Total (model↔open disagreement ≥ 0.5 runs; n 1): close moved toward model in 0.0% · mean |open−close| 0.0 vs mean |model−close| 1.1574
Excluded 1 cold-start game(s) — a single pregame line (open = close), no movement to measure.
Model live-3
No provisional snapshots for this version.
Confirmed — Model vs Market (paired sample, n 111)
| Metric | Model | Closing line |
|---|---|---|
| Win-prob Brier (n 111) | 0.2594 | 0.2485 |
| Total MAE (n 111) | 3.822 | 3.838 |
| Total bias (signed) | 0.183 | 0.27 |
Market-relative skill -0.0439 (>0 = model beats the close) · Head-to-head: model win prob closer in 40.5% (45/111 games)
Win prob (model↔open disagreement ≥ 3.0 pp; n 66): close moved toward model in 33.3% · mean |open−close| 0.0112 vs mean |model−close| 0.0805
Total (model↔open disagreement ≥ 0.5 runs; n 66): close moved toward model in 13.6% · mean |open−close| 0.1061 vs mean |model−close| 1.0654
Excluded 5 cold-start game(s) — a single pregame line (open = close), no movement to measure.
Market comparisons use vig-removed lines (two-sided moneylines normalized to sum to 1), on the paired sample only — snapshots with no captured odds are excluded, never zero-filled.
By day (confirmed metrics; last 30 days)
| Date | Model | n (conf) | Brier | Skill | Total MAE | Bias | n (prov) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | live-3 |
15 | 0.2613 | -0.0454 | 3.336 | 0.511 | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | live-3 |
10 | 0.2431 | 0.0275 | 2.447 | 2.311 | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | live-3 |
15 | 0.2614 | -0.0455 | 4.679 | -0.113 | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | live-3 |
14 | 0.2586 | -0.0342 | 4.69 | -0.422 | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | live-3 |
12 | 0.259 | -0.0362 | 4.772 | -0.333 | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | live-3 |
15 | 0.2422 | 0.0313 | 3.704 | -2.116 | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | live-3 |
15 | 0.2595 | -0.0381 | 2.674 | 1.305 | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | live-3 |
15 | 0.2846 | -0.1384 | 4.064 | 0.885 | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | live-2 |
5 | 0.2566 | -0.0266 | 5.07 | 0.947 | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | live-2 |
15 | 0.2616 | -0.0464 | 3.979 | 1.405 | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | live-2 |
14 | 0.2433 | 0.0269 | 4.024 | 2.834 | 1 |
| 2026-07-20 | live-2 |
15 | 0.2309 | 0.0763 | 3.365 | -0.461 | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | live-2 |
15 | 0.2339 | 0.0644 | 4.326 | 1.395 | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | live-2 |
6 | 0.216 | 0.1362 | 3.593 | 0.152 | 1 |
| 2026-07-17 | live-2 |
15 | 0.2653 | -0.0613 | 5.451 | 0.949 | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | live-2 |
1 | 0.1977 | 0.2093 | 6.645 | 6.645 | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | live-2 |
1 | 0.3067 | -0.2268 | 6.585 | 6.585 | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | live-2 |
15 | 0.2349 | 0.0606 | 2.895 | 1.227 | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | live-2 |
13 | 0.2909 | -0.1637 | 3.831 | 2.037 | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | live-2 |
15 | 0.26 | -0.0401 | 3.122 | 2.185 | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | live-2 |
13 | 0.2558 | -0.0231 | 5.029 | 0.985 | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | live-2 |
15 | 0.2415 | 0.0339 | 4.296 | 0.763 | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | live-2 |
16 | 0.2314 | 0.0743 | 4.19 | -0.657 | 0 |