Accountability
Projected vs. actual DK points. Change date: /results?date=YYYY-MM-DD · window: &days=30
Single day — 2026-09-15
No graded projections for 2026-09-15 yet (need both projections and actuals).
Rolling 30-day trend
Single-slate numbers are noisy — this is the honest read. Hitters and pitchers are graded separately.
MAE by day (lower better; y-max 7.41)
Correlation by day (higher better; 0–1)
hitters · pitchers
| Date | Model | Hitter MAE | Hitter r | Hitter n | Pitcher MAE | Pitcher r | Pitcher n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | v1.1 | 4.906 | 0.3461 | 238 | 4.351 | 0.6437 | 102 |
| 2026-09-13 | v1.1 | 5.099 | 0.333 | 271 | 4.59 | 0.7098 | 108 |
| 2026-09-12 | v1.1 | 5.061 | 0.3785 | 450 | 4.884 | 0.5255 | 185 |
| 2026-09-11 | v1.1 | 4.701 | 0.3738 | 401 | 4.652 | 0.5104 | 173 |
| 2026-09-10 | v1.1 | 4.461 | 0.235 | 105 | 5.148 | 0.7829 | 37 |
| 2026-09-09 | v1.1 | 5.255 | 0.2434 | 281 | 4.902 | 0.3839 | 129 |
| 2026-09-08 | v1.1 | 5.071 | 0.1909 | 403 | 3.744 | 0.5824 | 172 |
| 2026-09-07 | v1.1 | 4.862 | 0.2972 | 224 | 4.722 | 0.6848 | 90 |
| 2026-09-06 | v1.1 | 4.307 | 0.4022 | 341 | 4.604 | 0.599 | 137 |
| 2026-09-05 | v1.1 | 4.812 | 0.2297 | 343 | 4.26 | 0.6755 | 145 |
| 2026-09-04 | v1.1 | 5.2 | 0.223 | 504 | 4.255 | 0.6089 | 208 |
| 2026-09-03 | v1.1 | 4.318 | 0.2996 | 228 | 4.078 | 0.6067 | 97 |
| 2026-09-02 | v1.1 | 5.387 | 0.2013 | 427 | 4.453 | 0.5259 | 196 |
| 2026-09-01 | v1.1 | 5.316 | 0.2342 | 439 | 4.54 | 0.5201 | 176 |
| 2026-08-31 | v1.1 | 5.267 | 0.1852 | 324 | 4.495 | 0.6 | 132 |
| 2026-08-30 | v1.1 | 5.029 | 0.345 | 280 | 4.898 | 0.5892 | 110 |
| 2026-08-29 | v1.1 | 4.708 | 0.4042 | 643 | 4.617 | 0.4767 | 302 |
| 2026-08-28 | v1.1 | 4.455 | 0.2566 | 390 | 4.075 | 0.6019 | 159 |
| 2026-08-27 | v1.1 | 5.183 | 0.4051 | 135 | 4.453 | 0.6828 | 52 |
| 2026-08-26 | v1.1 | 5.553 | 0.2301 | 285 | 4.922 | 0.4194 | 116 |
| 2026-08-25 | v1.1 | 4.744 | 0.2078 | 422 | 4.592 | 0.5094 | 182 |
| 2026-08-24 | v1.1 | 4.934 | 0.2334 | 317 | 4.293 | 0.5126 | 139 |
| 2026-08-23 | v1.1 | 5.129 | 0.3514 | 367 | 4.545 | 0.5336 | 160 |
| 2026-08-22 | v1.1 | 5.872 | -0.0072 | 330 | 4.211 | 0.5996 | 137 |
| 2026-08-21 | v1.1 | 4.793 | 0.3126 | 463 | 3.489 | 0.6475 | 210 |
| 2026-08-20 | v1.1 | 5.777 | 0.1053 | 108 | 6.734 | 0.5097 | 33 |
Live Model
Pregame win-probability and total accuracy from graded snapshots. Confirmed snapshots (lineups + starters posted) are the headline; provisional ones are segregated. Metrics are broken out by model version so pre-fix and post-fix eras never blend. Brier lower is better; skill (vs the 0.5 coin-flip baseline) higher is better; bias is mean signed total error (+ = over-projection).
Model live-2
Provisional (n 2): Brier 0.3038 · skill -0.2153 · total MAE 10.236 · bias 10.236
Confirmed — Model vs Market (paired sample, n 160)
| Metric | Model | Closing line |
|---|---|---|
| Win-prob Brier (n 160) | 0.252 | 0.2482 |
| Total MAE (n 160) | 4.063 | 3.647 |
| Total bias (signed) | 1.294 | -0.047 |
Market-relative skill -0.0153 (>0 = model beats the close) · Head-to-head: model win prob closer in 48.8% (78/160 games)
Win prob (model↔open disagreement ≥ 3.0 pp; n 110): close moved toward model in 34.5% · mean |open−close| 0.0115 vs mean |model−close| 0.0851
Total (model↔open disagreement ≥ 0.5 runs; n 119): close moved toward model in 12.6% · mean |open−close| 0.1261 vs mean |model−close| 1.7399
Excluded 9 cold-start game(s) — a single pregame line (open = close), no movement to measure.
Provisional — Model vs Market (paired sample, n 2)
| Metric | Model | Closing line |
|---|---|---|
| Win-prob Brier (n 2) | 0.3038 | 0.2968 |
| Total MAE (n 2) | 10.236 | 9.25 |
| Total bias (signed) | 10.236 | 9.25 |
Market-relative skill -0.0236 (>0 = model beats the close) · Head-to-head: model win prob closer in 50.0% (1/2 games)
Win prob (model↔open disagreement ≥ 3.0 pp; n 1): close moved toward model in 100.0% · mean |open−close| 0.0134 vs mean |model−close| 0.0489
Total (model↔open disagreement ≥ 0.5 runs; n 1): close moved toward model in 0.0% · mean |open−close| 0.0 vs mean |model−close| 1.1574
Excluded 1 cold-start game(s) — a single pregame line (open = close), no movement to measure.
Model live-3
No provisional snapshots for this version.
Confirmed — Model vs Market (paired sample, n 651)
| Metric | Model | Closing line |
|---|---|---|
| Win-prob Brier (n 651) | 0.2485 | 0.241 |
| Total MAE (n 651) | 3.594 | 3.498 |
| Total bias (signed) | -0.332 | -0.547 |
Market-relative skill -0.0311 (>0 = model beats the close) · Head-to-head: model win prob closer in 44.7% (291/651 games)
Win prob (model↔open disagreement ≥ 3.0 pp; n 412): close moved toward model in 40.8% · mean |open−close| 0.0104 vs mean |model−close| 0.0842
Total (model↔open disagreement ≥ 0.5 runs; n 344): close moved toward model in 14.5% · mean |open−close| 0.1424 vs mean |model−close| 1.0711
Excluded 42 cold-start game(s) — a single pregame line (open = close), no movement to measure.
Market comparisons use vig-removed lines (two-sided moneylines normalized to sum to 1), on the paired sample only — snapshots with no captured odds are excluded, never zero-filled.
By day (confirmed metrics; last 30 days)
| Date | Model | n (conf) | Brier | Skill | Total MAE | Bias | n (prov) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | live-3 |
10 | 0.21 | 0.1598 | 3.421 | -0.405 | 0 |
| 2026-09-13 | live-3 |
15 | 0.2476 | 0.0094 | 3.524 | -1.054 | 0 |
| 2026-09-12 | live-3 |
15 | 0.2329 | 0.0684 | 4.565 | -3.256 | 0 |
| 2026-09-11 | live-3 |
15 | 0.2213 | 0.1148 | 2.589 | -1.181 | 0 |
| 2026-09-10 | live-3 |
5 | 0.2433 | 0.0267 | 4.427 | 2.741 | 0 |
| 2026-09-09 | live-3 |
15 | 0.228 | 0.0881 | 5.285 | -2.654 | 0 |
| 2026-09-08 | live-3 |
15 | 0.2098 | 0.1606 | 2.857 | -0.095 | 0 |
| 2026-09-07 | live-3 |
11 | 0.2408 | 0.037 | 2.916 | 0.131 | 0 |
| 2026-09-06 | live-3 |
15 | 0.2252 | 0.099 | 4.021 | -0.274 | 0 |
| 2026-09-05 | live-3 |
15 | 0.2642 | -0.0568 | 2.548 | -0.174 | 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | live-3 |
16 | 0.2502 | -0.0007 | 4.132 | 0.011 | 0 |
| 2026-09-03 | live-3 |
9 | 0.251 | -0.0042 | 2.447 | 0.417 | 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | live-3 |
15 | 0.2683 | -0.0732 | 3.92 | -1.831 | 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | live-3 |
15 | 0.2628 | -0.0513 | 5.032 | -3.125 | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | live-3 |
12 | 0.2357 | 0.057 | 4.411 | -0.331 | 0 |
| 2026-08-30 | live-3 |
14 | 0.2378 | 0.0487 | 2.717 | -0.894 | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | live-3 |
17 | 0.2099 | 0.1606 | 3.219 | -0.21 | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | live-3 |
15 | 0.2386 | 0.0455 | 3.664 | -0.017 | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | live-3 |
7 | 0.2254 | 0.0985 | 3.163 | -0.548 | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | live-3 |
15 | 0.2638 | -0.055 | 4.282 | -0.415 | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | live-3 |
15 | 0.2576 | -0.0302 | 4.031 | 0.073 | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | live-3 |
10 | 0.226 | 0.096 | 3.642 | -0.501 | 0 |
| 2026-08-23 | live-3 |
15 | 0.2137 | 0.145 | 3.645 | -0.881 | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | live-3 |
15 | 0.2727 | -0.0907 | 3.696 | 0.402 | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | live-3 |
15 | 0.2008 | 0.1968 | 2.278 | 0.503 | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | live-3 |
9 | 0.2544 | -0.0177 | 4.343 | -0.541 | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | live-3 |
15 | 0.2343 | 0.063 | 3.557 | 0.559 | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | live-3 |
15 | 0.235 | 0.0602 | 3.898 | 0.162 | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | live-3 |
11 | 0.2213 | 0.1146 | 3.943 | -1.488 | 0 |