Accountability
Projected vs. actual DK points. Change date: /results?date=YYYY-MM-DD · window: &days=30
Single day — 2026-10-31
No DFS slate on 2026-10-31 — the regular season is complete. The season's record: final regular-season day (2026-09-27) · its slates. Live-model results for today continue below.
Rolling 30-day trend
Single-slate numbers are noisy — this is the honest read. Hitters and pitchers are graded separately.
No graded days in the last 30 days ending 2026-10-31.
Live Model
Pregame win-probability and total accuracy from graded snapshots. Confirmed snapshots (lineups + starters posted) are the headline; provisional ones are segregated. Metrics are broken out by model version so pre-fix and post-fix eras never blend. Brier lower is better; skill (vs the 0.5 coin-flip baseline) higher is better; bias is mean signed total error (+ = over-projection).
Model live-2
Provisional (n 2): Brier 0.3038 · skill -0.2153 · total MAE 10.236 · bias 10.236
Confirmed — Model vs Market (paired sample, n 160)
| Metric | Model | Closing line |
|---|---|---|
| Win-prob Brier (n 160) | 0.252 | 0.2482 |
| Total MAE (n 160) | 4.063 | 3.647 |
| Total bias (signed) | 1.294 | -0.047 |
Market-relative skill -0.0153 (>0 = model beats the close) · Head-to-head: model win prob closer in 48.8% (78/160 games)
Win prob (model↔open disagreement ≥ 3.0 pp; n 110): close moved toward model in 34.5% · mean |open−close| 0.0115 vs mean |model−close| 0.0851
Total (model↔open disagreement ≥ 0.5 runs; n 119): close moved toward model in 12.6% · mean |open−close| 0.1261 vs mean |model−close| 1.7399
Excluded 9 cold-start game(s) — a single pregame line (open = close), no movement to measure.
Provisional — Model vs Market (paired sample, n 2)
| Metric | Model | Closing line |
|---|---|---|
| Win-prob Brier (n 2) | 0.3038 | 0.2968 |
| Total MAE (n 2) | 10.236 | 9.25 |
| Total bias (signed) | 10.236 | 9.25 |
Market-relative skill -0.0236 (>0 = model beats the close) · Head-to-head: model win prob closer in 50.0% (1/2 games)
Win prob (model↔open disagreement ≥ 3.0 pp; n 1): close moved toward model in 100.0% · mean |open−close| 0.0134 vs mean |model−close| 0.0489
Total (model↔open disagreement ≥ 0.5 runs; n 1): close moved toward model in 0.0% · mean |open−close| 0.0 vs mean |model−close| 1.1574
Excluded 1 cold-start game(s) — a single pregame line (open = close), no movement to measure.
Model live-3
Provisional (n 1): Brier 0.1639 · skill 0.3445 · total MAE 8.548 · bias 8.548
Confirmed — Model vs Market (paired sample, n 862)
| Metric | Model | Closing line |
|---|---|---|
| Win-prob Brier (n 862) | 0.2456 | 0.2398 |
| Total MAE (n 862) | 3.482 | 3.374 |
| Total bias (signed) | -0.217 | -0.526 |
Market-relative skill -0.0242 (>0 = model beats the close) · Head-to-head: model win prob closer in 46.1% (397/862 games)
Win prob (model↔open disagreement ≥ 3.0 pp; n 548): close moved toward model in 41.1% · mean |open−close| 0.0099 vs mean |model−close| 0.0831
Total (model↔open disagreement ≥ 0.5 runs; n 471): close moved toward model in 11.9% · mean |open−close| 0.1221 vs mean |model−close| 1.1393
Excluded 51 cold-start game(s) — a single pregame line (open = close), no movement to measure.
Provisional — Model vs Market (paired sample, n 1)
| Metric | Model | Closing line |
|---|---|---|
| Win-prob Brier (n 1) | 0.1639 | 0.2722 |
| Total MAE (n 1) | 8.548 | 7.5 |
| Total bias (signed) | 8.548 | 7.5 |
Market-relative skill 0.3979 (>0 = model beats the close) · Head-to-head: model win prob closer in 100.0% (1/1 games)
Win prob (model↔open disagreement ≥ 3.0 pp; n 1): close moved toward model in 100.0% · mean |open−close| 0.0053 vs mean |model−close| 0.1169
Total (model↔open disagreement ≥ 0.5 runs; n 1): close moved toward model in 0.0% · mean |open−close| 0.0 vs mean |model−close| 1.0478
Market comparisons use vig-removed lines (two-sided moneylines normalized to sum to 1), on the paired sample only — snapshots with no captured odds are excluded, never zero-filled.
By day (confirmed metrics; last 30 days)
| Date | Model | n (conf) | Brier | Skill | Total MAE | Bias | n (prov) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | live-3 |
1 | 0.2652 | -0.0609 | 0.491 | 0.491 | 0 |
| 2026-10-27 | live-3 |
1 | 0.1806 | 0.2775 | 1.575 | 1.575 | 0 |
| 2026-10-26 | live-3 |
1 | 0.1931 | 0.2277 | 2.497 | -2.497 | 0 |
| 2026-10-24 | live-3 |
1 | 0.3074 | -0.2294 | 2.313 | -2.313 | 0 |
| 2026-10-23 | live-3 |
1 | 0.1618 | 0.3529 | 1.942 | 1.942 | 0 |
| 2026-10-19 | live-3 |
1 | 0.1686 | 0.3256 | 1.042 | -1.042 | 0 |
| 2026-10-17 | live-3 |
1 | 0.1092 | 0.5633 | 2.137 | -2.137 | 0 |
| 2026-10-16 | live-3 |
1 | 0.1082 | 0.567 | 7.812 | 7.812 | 0 |
| 2026-10-15 | live-3 |
2 | 0.3429 | -0.3716 | 2.528 | 0.368 | 0 |
| 2026-10-14 | live-3 |
1 | 0.3392 | -0.3568 | 0.231 | 0.231 | 0 |
| 2026-10-13 | live-3 |
1 | 0.3404 | -0.3614 | 3.295 | 3.295 | 0 |
| 2026-10-12 | live-3 |
2 | 0.3597 | -0.4388 | 3.765 | -3.765 | 0 |
| 2026-10-11 | live-3 |
1 | 0.2078 | 0.169 | 3.421 | 3.421 | 0 |
| 2026-10-10 | live-3 |
1 | 0.2452 | 0.0191 | 5.679 | 5.679 | 0 |
| 2026-10-08 | live-3 |
1 | 0.1839 | 0.2645 | 5.698 | -5.698 | 0 |
| 2026-10-07 | live-3 |
4 | 0.2663 | -0.0654 | 2.863 | 1.115 | 0 |
| 2026-10-06 | live-3 |
2 | 0.192 | 0.2321 | 1.391 | 1.391 | 0 |
| 2026-10-05 | live-3 |
2 | 0.3557 | -0.4229 | 0.896 | 0.896 | 0 |
| 2026-10-04 | live-3 |
2 | 0.2296 | 0.0815 | 1.472 | 1.472 | 0 |
| 2026-10-03 | live-3 |
4 | 0.1724 | 0.3105 | 3.458 | 2.977 | 0 |