NHL Game Projections
Tonight and tomorrow. Win probability, vig-free moneylines, the puck line both ways and the totals landscape, priced from engine h1-v1 on xG ratings (xg-h1-v1) with each starting goalie priced in — confirmed, expected, or a projected mix of the depth chart until someone names him. Updated 7m ago.
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Tonight · Sat Oct 31 · 10 games
1:00 PM ET · 2
CHI @ BOS
1:00 PM ET
Arvid Soderblom expected
vs
Jeremy Swayman expected
CHI 35%
BOS 65%
| Model | Fair | Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ML | 35% / 65% | +185 / -185 | +185 / -225 |
| BOS −1.5 | 43% | +132 | +114 |
| CHI +1.5 | 57% | -132 | -135 |
| Total | 6.48 | OT 20% | 5.5 |
| O/U 5.5 | o 61% · u 39% | -135 / +114 | |
| O/U 6 | o 50% · u 39% · push 11% | ||
| O/U 6.5 | o 50% · u 50% | ||
| Score | CHI 2.78 – 3.70 BOS | ||
Factors · BOS +0.11 / CHI -0.13 goals vs a neutral-site, average-goalie baseline
- Home ice — BOS BOS +0.083 · CHI -0.083
- BOS goalie — Jeremy Swayman (expected) BOS +0.000 · CHI -0.046
- CHI goalie — Arvid Soderblom (expected) BOS +0.032 · CHI +0.000
STL @ DET
1:00 PM ET
Joel Hofer expected
vs
John Gibson ✓ confirmed
STL 44%
DET 56%
| Model | Fair | Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ML | 44% / 56% | +126 / -126 | -115 / -105 |
| DET −1.5 | 34% | +193 | — |
| STL +1.5 | 66% | -193 | — |
| Total | 5.99 | OT 22% | 5.5 |
| O/U 5.5 | o 52% · u 48% | -130 / +110 | |
| O/U 6 | o 41% · u 48% · push 11% | ||
| O/U 6.5 | o 41% · u 59% | ||
| Score | STL 2.84 – 3.15 DET | ||
Market lays the puck line the other way: STL −1.5.
Factors · DET +0.06 / STL -0.13 goals vs a neutral-site, average-goalie baseline
- Home ice — DET DET +0.083 · STL -0.083
- DET goalie — John Gibson (confirmed) DET +0.000 · STL -0.044
- STL goalie — Joel Hofer (expected) DET -0.019 · STL +0.000
2:00 PM ET · 2
TBL @ NSH
2:00 PM ET
Andrei Vasilevskiy expected
vs
Juuse Saros expected
TBL 60%
NSH 40%
| Model | Fair | Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ML | 60% / 40% | -148 / +148 | -170 / +142 |
| TBL −1.5 | 39% | +154 | +145 |
| NSH +1.5 | 61% | -154 | -175 |
| Total | 6.37 | OT 21% | 6.5 |
| O/U 5.5 | o 59% · u 41% | ||
| O/U 6 | o 48% · u 41% · push 11% | ||
| O/U 6.5 | o 48% · u 52% | +114 / -135 | |
| Score | TBL 3.50 – 2.87 NSH | ||
Factors · NSH -0.01 / TBL -0.05 goals vs a neutral-site, average-goalie baseline
- Home ice — NSH NSH +0.083 · TBL -0.083
- NSH goalie — Juuse Saros (expected) NSH +0.000 · TBL +0.032
- TBL goalie — Andrei Vasilevskiy (expected) NSH -0.091 · TBL +0.000
EDM @ NYI
2:00 PM ET
Tristan Jarry ✓ confirmed
vs
Ilya Sorokin expected
EDM 46%
NYI 54%
| Model | Fair | Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ML | 46% / 54% | +118 / -118 | -135 / +114 |
| NYI −1.5 | 33% | +200 | — |
| EDM +1.5 | 67% | -200 | — |
| Total | 6.29 | OT 22% | 6.5 |
| O/U 5.5 | o 57% · u 43% | ||
| O/U 6 | o 46% · u 43% · push 11% | ||
| O/U 6.5 | o 46% · u 54% | -102 / -118 | |
| Score | EDM 3.03 – 3.26 NYI | ||
Market lays the puck line the other way: EDM −1.5.
Factors · NYI +0.14 / EDM -0.18 goals vs a neutral-site, average-goalie baseline
- Home ice — NYI NYI +0.083 · EDM -0.083
- NYI goalie — Ilya Sorokin (expected) NYI +0.000 · EDM -0.101
- EDM goalie — Tristan Jarry (confirmed) NYI +0.062 · EDM +0.000
4:00 PM ET · 2
BUF @ LAK
4:00 PM ET
Colten Ellis expected
vs
Darcy Kuemper expected
BUF 46%
LAK 54%
| Model | Fair | Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ML | 46% / 54% | +117 / -117 | -122 / +102 |
| LAK −1.5 | 33% | +203 | — |
| BUF +1.5 | 67% | -203 | — |
| Total | 6.16 | OT 22% | 5.5 |
| O/U 5.5 | o 55% · u 45% | -135 / +114 | |
| O/U 6 | o 44% · u 45% · push 11% | ||
| O/U 6.5 | o 44% · u 56% | ||
| Score | BUF 2.97 – 3.19 LAK | ||
Market lays the puck line the other way: BUF −1.5.
Factors · LAK +0.10 / BUF -0.11 goals vs a neutral-site, average-goalie baseline
- Home ice — LAK LAK +0.083 · BUF -0.083
- LAK goalie — Darcy Kuemper (expected) LAK +0.000 · BUF -0.031
- BUF goalie — Colten Ellis (expected) LAK +0.018 · BUF +0.000
OTT @ SJS
4:00 PM ET
Samuel Ersson expected
vs
Yaroslav Askarov expected
OTT 57%
SJS 43%
| Model | Fair | Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ML | 57% / 43% | -132 / +132 | -135 / +114 |
| OTT −1.5 | 37% | +170 | +185 |
| SJS +1.5 | 63% | -170 | -225 |
| Total | 6.53 | OT 21% | 6.5 |
| O/U 5.5 | o 61% · u 39% | ||
| O/U 6 | o 50% · u 39% · push 11% | ||
| O/U 6.5 | o 50% · u 50% | -112 / -108 | |
| Score | OTT 3.49 – 3.04 SJS | ||
Factors · SJS +0.18 / OTT -0.04 goals vs a neutral-site, average-goalie baseline
- Home ice — SJS SJS +0.083 · OTT -0.083
- SJS goalie — Yaroslav Askarov (expected) SJS +0.000 · OTT +0.040
- OTT goalie — Samuel Ersson (expected) SJS +0.095 · OTT +0.000
7:00 PM ET · 2
PIT @ MTL
7:00 PM ET
Arturs Silovs expected
vs
Jacob Fowler expected
PIT 49%
MTL 51%
| Model | Fair | Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ML | 49% / 51% | +104 / -104 | +130 / -155 |
| MTL −1.5 | 31% | +220 | +160 |
| PIT +1.5 | 69% | -220 | -192 |
| Total | 6.60 | OT 21% | 6.5 |
| O/U 5.5 | o 62% · u 38% | ||
| O/U 6 | o 52% · u 38% · push 11% | ||
| O/U 6.5 | o 52% · u 48% | -118 / -102 | |
| Score | PIT 3.28 – 3.32 MTL | ||
Factors · MTL +0.14 / PIT -0.13 goals vs a neutral-site, average-goalie baseline
- Home ice — MTL MTL +0.083 · PIT -0.083
- MTL goalie — Jacob Fowler (expected) MTL +0.000 · PIT -0.045
- PIT goalie — Arturs Silovs (expected) MTL +0.057 · PIT +0.000
TOR @ VAN
7:00 PM ET
Anthony Stolarz ✓ confirmed
vs
Kevin Lankinen expected
TOR 55%
VAN 45%
| Model | Fair | Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ML | 55% / 45% | -124 / +124 | -162 / +136 |
| TOR −1.5 | 36% | +181 | +154 |
| VAN +1.5 | 64% | -181 | -185 |
| Total | 6.44 | OT 21% | 6.5 |
| O/U 5.5 | o 60% · u 40% | ||
| O/U 6 | o 49% · u 40% · push 11% | ||
| O/U 6.5 | o 49% · u 51% | -125 / +105 | |
| Score | TOR 3.40 – 3.04 VAN | ||
Factors · VAN +0.03 / TOR +0.00 goals vs a neutral-site, average-goalie baseline
- Home ice — VAN VAN +0.083 · TOR -0.083
- VAN goalie — Kevin Lankinen (expected) VAN +0.000 · TOR +0.084
- TOR goalie — Anthony Stolarz (confirmed) VAN -0.051 · TOR +0.000
8:00 PM ET · 1
CBJ @ DAL
8:00 PM ET
Jet Greaves expected
vs
Jake Oettinger expected
CBJ 40%
DAL 60%
| Model | Fair | Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ML | 40% / 60% | +150 / -150 | +154 / -185 |
| DAL −1.5 | 37% | +167 | +145 |
| CBJ +1.5 | 63% | -167 | -175 |
| Total | 5.86 | OT 22% | 5.5 |
| O/U 5.5 | o 50% · u 50% | -105 / -115 | |
| O/U 6 | o 39% · u 50% · push 11% | ||
| O/U 6.5 | o 39% · u 61% | ||
| Score | CBJ 2.65 – 3.21 DAL | ||
Factors · DAL +0.01 / CBJ -0.14 goals vs a neutral-site, average-goalie baseline
- Home ice — DAL DAL +0.083 · CBJ -0.083
- DAL goalie — Jake Oettinger (expected) DAL +0.000 · CBJ -0.060
- CBJ goalie — Jet Greaves (expected) DAL -0.072 · CBJ +0.000
10:00 PM ET · 1
CGY @ COL
10:00 PM ET
Arsenii Sergeev expected
vs
Mackenzie Blackwood expected
CGY 29%
COL 71%
| Model | Fair | Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ML | 29% / 71% | +240 / -240 | +320 / -410 |
| COL −1.5 | 49% | +106 | -180 |
| CGY +1.5 | 51% | -106 | +150 |
| Total | 6.40 | OT 20% | 6.5 |
| O/U 5.5 | o 59% · u 41% | ||
| O/U 6 | o 48% · u 41% · push 11% | ||
| O/U 6.5 | o 48% · u 52% | -110 / -110 | |
| Score | CGY 2.55 – 3.85 COL | ||
Factors · COL +0.24 / CGY -0.29 goals vs a neutral-site, average-goalie baseline
- Home ice — COL COL +0.083 · CGY -0.083
- COL goalie — Mackenzie Blackwood (expected) COL +0.000 · CGY -0.046
- CGY goalie — Arsenii Sergeev (expected) COL +0.041 · CGY +0.000
- Back-to-back — CGY COL +0.113 · CGY -0.156
Tomorrow · Sun Nov 1 · 5 games
1:00 PM ET · 1
WPG @ CAR
1:00 PM ET
Stuart Skinner expected
vs
Pyotr Kochetkov expected
WPG 34%
CAR 66%
| Model | Fair | Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ML | 34% / 66% | +196 / -196 | — |
| CAR −1.5 | 44% | +126 | — |
| WPG +1.5 | 56% | -126 | — |
| Total | 6.38 | OT 20% | — |
| O/U 5.5 | o 59% · u 41% | ||
| O/U 6 | o 48% · u 41% · push 11% | ||
| O/U 6.5 | o 48% · u 52% | ||
| Score | WPG 2.69 – 3.69 CAR | ||
Factors · CAR +0.07 / WPG -0.08 goals vs a neutral-site, average-goalie baseline
- Home ice — CAR CAR +0.083 · WPG -0.083
- CAR goalie — Pyotr Kochetkov (expected) CAR +0.000 · WPG -0.001
- WPG goalie — Stuart Skinner (expected) CAR -0.016 · WPG +0.000
3:30 PM ET · 1
MIN @ WSH
3:30 PM ET
Jesper Wallstedt expected
vs
Charlie Lindgren expected
MIN 52%
WSH 48%
| Model | Fair | Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ML | 52% / 48% | -110 / +110 | — |
| MIN −1.5 | 34% | +197 | — |
| WSH +1.5 | 66% | -197 | — |
| Total | 6.67 | OT 21% | — |
| O/U 5.5 | o 63% · u 37% | ||
| O/U 6 | o 53% · u 37% · push 11% | ||
| O/U 6.5 | o 53% · u 47% | ||
| Score | MIN 3.43 – 3.24 WSH | ||
Factors · WSH +0.05 / MIN -0.06 goals vs a neutral-site, average-goalie baseline
- Home ice — WSH WSH +0.083 · MIN -0.083
- WSH goalie — Charlie Lindgren (expected) WSH +0.000 · MIN +0.024
- MIN goalie — Jesper Wallstedt (expected) WSH -0.037 · MIN +0.000
4:00 PM ET · 1
UTA @ PHI
4:00 PM ET
Karel Vejmelka expected
vs
Dan Vladar expected
UTA 60%
PHI 40%
| Model | Fair | Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ML | 60% / 40% | -149 / +149 | — |
| UTA −1.5 | 39% | +156 | — |
| PHI +1.5 | 61% | -156 | — |
| Total | 6.17 | OT 22% | — |
| O/U 5.5 | o 55% · u 45% | ||
| O/U 6 | o 44% · u 45% · push 11% | ||
| O/U 6.5 | o 44% · u 56% | ||
| Score | UTA 3.40 – 2.77 PHI | ||
Factors · PHI +0.05 / UTA -0.10 goals vs a neutral-site, average-goalie baseline
- Home ice — PHI PHI +0.083 · UTA -0.083
- PHI goalie — Dan Vladar (expected) PHI +0.000 · UTA -0.018
- UTA goalie — Karel Vejmelka (expected) PHI -0.036 · UTA +0.000
6:00 PM ET · 1
EDM @ NYR
6:00 PM ET
Matt Tomkins expected · replacement-level (no NHL shots)
vs
Dylan Garand expected
EDM 42%
NYR 58%
| Model | Fair | Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ML | 42% / 58% | +137 / -137 | — |
| NYR −1.5 | 36% | +176 | — |
| EDM +1.5 | 64% | -176 | — |
| Total | 6.21 | OT 22% | — |
| O/U 5.5 | o 56% · u 44% | ||
| O/U 6 | o 45% · u 44% · push 11% | ||
| O/U 6.5 | o 45% · u 55% | ||
| Score | EDM 2.88 – 3.33 NYR | ||
Factors · NYR +0.24 / EDM -0.22 goals vs a neutral-site, average-goalie baseline
- Home ice — NYR NYR +0.083 · EDM -0.083
- NYR goalie — Dylan Garand (expected) NYR +0.000 · EDM +0.015
- EDM goalie — Matt Tomkins (expected) NYR +0.044 · EDM +0.000
- Back-to-back — EDM NYR +0.113 · EDM -0.156
8:00 PM ET · 1
OTT @ ANA
8:00 PM ET
Jonas Johansson expected
vs
Lukas Dostal expected
OTT 48%
ANA 52%
| Model | Fair | Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ML | 48% / 52% | +110 / -110 | — |
| ANA −1.5 | 32% | +210 | — |
| OTT +1.5 | 68% | -210 | — |
| Total | 6.49 | OT 22% | — |
| O/U 5.5 | o 61% · u 39% | ||
| O/U 6 | o 50% · u 39% · push 11% | ||
| O/U 6.5 | o 50% · u 50% | ||
| Score | OTT 3.18 – 3.31 ANA | ||
Factors · ANA +0.25 / OTT -0.29 goals vs a neutral-site, average-goalie baseline
- Home ice — ANA ANA +0.083 · OTT -0.083
- ANA goalie — Lukas Dostal (expected) ANA +0.000 · OTT -0.053
- OTT goalie — Jonas Johansson (expected) ANA +0.053 · OTT +0.000
- Back-to-back — OTT ANA +0.113 · OTT -0.156
Moneylines, puck lines and totals are vig-free fair prices derived from the model's own probabilities — model-derived fair values, not betting advice. The Market column is shown for comparison only and is never blended into the model: the latest line we captured before puck drop (one book per capture), with its age shown when it is more than six hours old; a game with no pregame capture yet reads “—”. Games past regulation are settled per NHL rules (the shootout winner is credited one goal). A goalie marked projected is a start-share mix of the team's rostered goalies, repriced the moment a starter is named.