NFL Playoff Odds
Re-simulated after every graded week from the current standings and the in-season blended ratings โ completed games are fixed, only the remaining schedule is simulated. Through week 8 ยท 100,000 sims ยท model n12-v1.
Week 0 is the locked pre-season snapshot (model n6-v1) โ the published record, not a re-run. Every later point re-sims from what has actually happened.
Playoff odds by week
y-axis 0โ100% playoff probability (dashed line = 50%); x-axis week 0 โ 8. Four teams per panel โ 32 lines on one axis is unreadable, so the league is grouped by division and the chips above filter it.
Biggest movers week 7 โ 8
Up
- GB +8.9 pp 48% โ 57%
- ATL +1.9 pp 32% โ 34%
- CLE +1.3 pp 58% โ 59%
- NYG +1.2 pp 50% โ 52%
- NO +0.9 pp 9% โ 10%
Down
- CAR -6.4 pp 39% โ 33%
- SEA -2.4 pp 73% โ 70%
- DET -2.0 pp 74% โ 72%
- DAL -1.4 pp 45% โ 44%
- CIN -1.3 pp 80% โ 78%
Standings & odds
| # | Team | Div | Record | Proj W | Playoff% | Div% | ฮ wk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF | NFC West | 6-1 | 12.1 | 97% | 81% | -0.4 |
| 2 | MIN | NFC North | 6-0 | 11.8 | 94% | 59% | -0.3 |
| 3 | JAX | AFC South | 4-2 | 10.7 | 88% | 85% | -1.0 |
| 4 | KC | AFC West | 5-1 | 10.9 | 88% | 61% | -0.2 |
| 5 | BUF | AFC East | 5-1 | 11.2 | 86% | 69% | -0.3 |
| 6 | CIN | AFC North | 4-2 | 10.7 | 78% | 42% | -1.3 |
| 7 | DEN | AFC West | 5-2 | 10.5 | 75% | 35% | -0.4 |
| 8 | DET | NFC North | 4-2 | 10.2 | 72% | 22% | -2.0 |
| 9 | SEA | NFC West | 4-3 | 10.1 | 70% | 17% | -2.4 |
| 10 | PIT | AFC North | 5-2 | 10.1 | 64% | 24% | +0.2 |
| 11 | CHI | NFC North | 5-2 | 10.0 | 62% | 11% | -0.4 |
| 12 | NE | AFC East | 4-3 | 9.4 | 62% | 28% | -0.6 |
| 13 | CLE | AFC North | 5-2 | 9.7 | 59% | 21% | +1.3 |
| 14 | GB | NFC North | 5-3 | 9.7 | 57% | 8% | +8.9 |
| 15 | NYG | NFC East | 4-2-1 | 8.7 | 52% | 47% | +1.2 |
| 16 | BAL | AFC North | 4-3 | 9.5 | 49% | 14% | -0.3 |
| 17 | DAL | NFC East | 3-4 | 8.3 | 44% | 37% | -1.4 |
| 18 | ATL | NFC South | 3-4 | 7.7 | 34% | 31% | +1.9 |
| 19 | CAR | NFC South | 3-4 | 7.7 | 33% | 30% | -6.4 |
| 20 | TB | NFC South | 2-5 | 7.3 | 32% | 30% | +0.7 |
| 21 | LA | NFC West | 3-4 | 8.0 | 20% | 2% | -0.4 |
| 22 | HOU | AFC South | 2-5 | 7.4 | 19% | 10% | +0.6 |
| 23 | LV | AFC West | 3-4 | 7.7 | 17% | 4% | +0.5 |
| 24 | WAS | NFC East | 1-4-1 | 6.6 | 10% | 9% | -0.1 |
| 25 | NO | NFC South | 2-5 | 6.2 | 10% | 9% | +0.9 |
| 26 | PHI | NFC East | 2-5 | 6.5 | 10% | 8% | -0.1 |
| 27 | IND | AFC South | 2-5 | 6.5 | 7% | 4% | +0.6 |
| 28 | NYJ | AFC East | 2-5 | 6.5 | 5% | 2% | +0.4 |
| 29 | MIA | AFC East | 1-5 | 5.7 | 3% | 1% | +0.3 |
| 30 | ARI | NFC West | 2-5 | 6.3 | 3% | 0% | +0.2 |
| 31 | TEN | AFC South | 1-6 | 4.2 | 0% | 0% | +0.1 |
| 32 | LAC | AFC West | 0-6 | 4.2 | 0% | 0% | +0.1 |
ฮ wk is the change in playoff probability since the previous simulated week, in percentage points. Division% is unavailable at week 0 โ the locked snapshot records win totals and playoff odds only. Model-derived fair values, not betting advice.