⚾ ChalkProof

TL;DR

The machine grades itself nightly so you don't have to read anything but this. You're welcome, allegedly. show me the work

The biggest gaps between our models and the market, every sport, next 48 hours. Edge is in win-probability points: the model's chance of the side minus the market's no-vig chance, priced off each sport's own fitted distribution (so a ½ point through a key number counts for what it is worth). Shown when it clears 3 points; top 12. Updated 12:07 AM ET.

  1. 🏈 Mississippi State @ Texas Today 7:30 PM
    spread Mississippi State +20.5 −114
    model Texas by 10.5
    +22.2pts
    mkt 50.9% → model 73.1%
  2. 🏈 Colorado State @ Utah State Today 3:30 PM
    ML Colorado State +235
    model fair +101
    +21.1pts
    mkt 28.6% → model 49.7%
  3. 🏈 NE @ MIA Tomorrow 4:25 PM
    spread MIA +7 −115
    model NE by 1.7
    +21.0pts
    mkt 51.1% → model 72.1% thin QB prior: MIAline 12h old
  4. 🏈 SMU @ Syracuse Today 12 PM
    spread Syracuse +10 −112
    model SMU by 3.4
    +19.5pts
    mkt 50.4% → model 69.9%
  5. 🏈 LAC @ LA Tomorrow 4:05 PM
    spread LAC +6.5 −102
    model LA by 3.3
    +16.4pts
    mkt 48.3% → model 64.7% line 12h old
  6. 🏈 Oregon State @ Fresno State Today 11 PM
    ML Fresno State +184
    model fair +100
    +16.1pts
    mkt 33.9% → model 50.0%
  7. 🏈 Nevada @ UCLA Today 4:15 PM
    spread UCLA −22.5 −108
    model UCLA by 28.9
    +15.5pts
    mkt 49.6% → model 65.1%
  8. 🏈 Texas State @ Boise State Today 10 PM
    spread Texas State +10.5 −105
    model Boise State by 6.8
    +14.7pts
    mkt 48.9% → model 63.6%
  9. 🏈 New Mexico @ San José State Today 4 PM
    spread San José State +14.5 −110
    model New Mexico by 9.8
    +14.4pts
    mkt 50.0% → model 64.4%
  10. 🏈 Florida @ Georgia Today 3:30 PM
    spread Florida +12.5 −112
    model Georgia by 8.1
    +13.2pts
    mkt 50.4% → model 63.6%
  11. 🏈 Illinois @ Maryland Today 12 PM
    spread Maryland +2.5 −102
    model Maryland by 2.8
    +13.1pts
    mkt 48.1% → model 61.2%
  12. 🏒 CGY @ COL Today 10 PM
    puck line CGY +1.5 +150
    model COL by 1.3
    +13.1pts
    mkt 38.4% → model 51.4% goalie unconfirmed: CGY, COL

Extreme disagreements

Usually a model limitation, occasionally a gift. A game lands here when any market sits more than 3× further from the market than our model typically sits from the closing line — it is listed, not ranked, until someone verifies it.

  1. 🏈 Oklahoma State @ Iowa State Today 7 PM
    extreme — verify
    • Iowa State win: model 58.0% · market 25.6% (no-vig) · gap 32.4 pts — 3.6× the typical model-vs-close gap (9.0 pts, n=100)
    • Iowa State margin: model +3.2 · market -9.5 · gap 12.7 pts — 3.3× the typical model-vs-close gap (3.9 pts, n=100)
    best priced edge Iowa State +275 +32.4 pts — not ranked
  2. 🏒 CHI @ BOS Today 1 PM
    extreme — verify goalie unconfirmed: CHI, BOS
    • total: model 6.5 · market 5.5 · gap 1.0 goals — 3.2× the typical model-vs-close gap (0.3 goals, n=100)
    best priced edge o5.5 −135 +5.5 pts — not ranked
  3. 🏈 Ohio State @ USC Today 7:30 PM
    extreme — verify
    • total: model 60.2 · market 51.5 · gap 8.7 pts — 3.0× the typical model-vs-close gap (2.9 pts, n=100)
    best priced edge Ohio State −6.5 −112 +12.2 pts — not ranked

Show me the work

Every model on this board is graded against the closing line, in public: MLB results · NFL results · CFB results · NHL results. Each day's TL;DR is also stored as it stood, so the picks themselves can be graded later.

Model-vs-market disagreement, not advice. The market is usually right.