🏈 ChalkProof

NFL Accountability

Games

Every game's prediction is locked ~90 minutes before kickoff — spread, total, win probability and vig-free moneylines, plus the market's opening and closing references — and never rewritten. After the final it is graded against the score. n is shown beside every figure and each model version is pooled separately, so eras never blend.

108 snapshots captured · 108 graded · 0 awaiting a final · model g2-v2.

9.56
spread MAE
n=108
10.98
total MAE
bias +0.98
0.2250
winner Brier
vs 0.2477 baseline
0.2250
ML fair-prob Brier

Spread bias +2.38 (+ = model favoured the home team too much) · winner accuracy 68.2%.

By week

WeeknSpread MAESpread bias Total MAETotal biasBrierModel
116 11.57 +1.31 13.06 -3.70 0.2058 g2-v2
216 13.28 +2.87 10.34 +5.37 0.2616 g2-v2
316 8.09 -0.47 12.33 -0.30 0.2196 g2-v2
416 6.94 +2.51 10.15 +0.13 0.2178 g2-v2
515 10.94 +1.96 10.26 -0.26 0.2238 g2-v2
614 5.95 +3.40 11.89 +4.04 0.2362 g2-v2
714 10.45 +5.70 9.05 +1.70 0.2206 g2-v2
81 0.85 +0.85 4.93 +4.93 0.0630 g2-v2

Model vs closing line — paired sample, n=108

Spread MAETotal MAEBrier
Model 9.56 10.98 0.2250
Closing line 9.38 10.56 0.2299

Head-to-head — spread: model 50, market 57, ties 1 · total: model 46, market 62, ties 0. Spread edge vs close: -0.19 points of MAE.

Closing-line value

spread: n=82 · moved toward the model 37% of the time · mean |open−close| 0.68 · mean |model−close| 3.13.

total: n=76 · moved toward the model 33% of the time · mean |open−close| 0.92 · mean |model−close| 4.30.

winprob: n=78 · moved toward the model 47% of the time · mean |open−close| 0.02 · mean |model−close| 0.10.

Cold-start games whose open and close resolve to the same odds row are excluded (0), never counted as zero movement.

What we adjusted for

The projection factors each game was locked with before kickoff, read from the snapshot's own embedded ledger — not recomputed from today's model.

NE @ SEA Wk 1
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +4.5 +5.4 +3
Total 47.7 47.7 23
Projection factors
  • NE travel: 3 time zones SEA +0.9 spread
Net vs neutral: SEA +0.9, total +0.0
CHI @ CAR Wk 1
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread -1.4 -2.6 -22
Total 43.9 45.3 96
Projection factors
  • CHI travel: 1 time zone CAR +0.3 spread
  • CAR defense: Patrick Jones II (LB, 60–85% snaps) OUT CHI +1.5 spread, total +1.5
  • CHI defense: Kyler Gordon (CB, 67% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
Net vs neutral: CHI +1.2, total +1.5
NO @ DET Wk 1
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +8.3 +8.3 +1
Total 44.2 44.5 61
Projection factors
  • NO travel: 1 time zone DET +0.3 spread
  • DET defense: Christian Izien (S, <60% snaps) 65% to play NO +0.3 spread, total +0.3
Net vs neutral: no side, total +0.3
BAL @ IND Wk 1
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread -3.8 -1.4 -18
Total 48.2 50.7 64
Projection factors
  • BAL defense: Nnamdi Madubuike (DT, 60–85% snaps) OUT; Teddye Buchanan (LB, 60–85% snaps) OUT IND +2.5 spread, total +2.5
Net vs neutral: IND +2.5, total +2.5
ATL @ PIT Wk 1
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +2.4 +6.9 +7
Total 45.8 41.2 33
Projection factors
  • ATL Tua Tagovailoa OUT PIT +5.0 spread, total -5.0
  • PIT defense: Joey Porter Jr. (CB, ≥85% snaps) 65% to play ATL +0.5 spread, total +0.5
  • PIT defense: Donte Kent (CB) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • ATL defense: Billy Bowman Jr. (CB, 80% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
Net vs neutral: PIT +4.5, total -4.5
NYJ @ TEN Wk 1
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread -0.5 -0.2 -13
Total 40.9 40.9 33
Projection factors
  • NYJ travel: 1 time zone TEN +0.3 spread
  • TEN defense: Cedric Gray (LB, 91% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (LB ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • NYJ defense: Joseph Ossai (DE, 67% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • NYJ defense: D'Angelo Ponds (CB) 2% to play: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: TEN +0.3, total +0.0
BUF @ HOU Wk 1
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +0.5 +0.9 -5
Total 47.2 47.3 67
Projection factors
  • BUF travel: 1 time zone HOU +0.3 spread
  • HOU defense: Collin Wright (CB) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • HOU defense: Aiden Fisher (LB) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • BUF defense: Jordan Hancock (CB, <60% snaps) 72% to play HOU +0.1 spread, total +0.1
Net vs neutral: HOU +0.4, total +0.1
CLE @ JAX Wk 1
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +4.9 +4.9 +24
Total 39.7 39.7 44
Projection factors
  • JAX defense: Wesley Williams (DE) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • JAX defense: Bryan Thomas Jr. (DE) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • CLE defense: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (LB) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
TB @ CIN Wk 1
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +2.6 +2.1 +6
Total 47.9 48.4 60
Projection factors
  • CIN defense: Josh Newton (CB, <60% snaps) OUT TB +0.5 spread, total +0.5
  • CIN defense: Landon Robinson (DT) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • TB defense: DeMonte Capehart (DT) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • TB defense: Ayden Garnes (CB) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: TB +0.5, total +0.5
ARI @ LAC Wk 1
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +3.8 +4.5 -12
Total 41.5 42.9 40
Projection factors
  • ARI travel: 1 time zone LAC +0.3 spread
  • LAC defense: Deane Leonard (CB, <60% snaps) OUT ARI +0.5 spread, total +0.5
  • ARI defense: Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (S, <60% snaps) OUT LAC +0.9 spread, total +0.9
  • ARI defense: Garrett Williams (CB, 82% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
Net vs neutral: LAC +0.6, total +1.4
MIA @ LV Wk 1
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread -1.4 +0.0 +14
Total 46.9 47.5 40
Projection factors
  • MIA travel: 3 time zones LV +0.9 spread
  • MIA defense: Storm Duck (CB, <60% snaps) OUT LV +0.5 spread, total +0.5
  • MIA defense: Darrell Baker Jr. (CB, 84% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
Net vs neutral: LV +1.4, total +0.5
WAS @ PHI Wk 1
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +5.1 +3.7 +2
Total 46.2 47.7 46
Projection factors
  • PHI defense: Jonathan Greenard (LB, 60–85% snaps) OUT WAS +1.5 spread, total +1.5
Net vs neutral: WAS +1.5, total +1.5
GB @ MIN Wk 1
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +0.3 +0.3 +17
Total 43.0 43.0 61
Projection factors
  • MIN defense: Zemaiah Vaughn (CB) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
DAL @ NYG Wk 1
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread -3.3 -3.0 +8
Total 50.0 51.1 48
Projection factors
  • DAL travel: 1 time zone NYG +0.3 spread
  • NYG defense: Nic Jones (CB, <60% snaps) OUT DAL +0.5 spread, total +0.5
  • NYG defense: Bobby Jamison-Travis (DT) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • DAL defense: Caelen Carson (DB, <60% snaps) OUT NYG +0.5 spread, total +0.5
Net vs neutral: NYG +0.3, total +1.0
DEN @ KC Wk 1
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +1.9 +3.6 +21
Total 46.5 46.8 41
Projection factors
  • DEN travel: 1 time zone KC +0.3 spread
  • Weather: 15 mph wind, 91°F total -1.2
  • KC defense: Chamarri Conner (S, 97% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • DEN defense: Jonathon Cooper (LB, 60–85% snaps) OUT KC +1.5 spread, total +1.5
  • DEN defense: Reese Taylor (DB) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: KC +1.7, total +0.3
DET @ BUF Wk 2
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +2.3 +2.3 +10
Total 51.7 52.7 72
Projection factors
  • BUF defense: Dorian Strong (CB, <60% snaps) OUT DET +0.5 spread, total +0.5
  • DET defense: D.J. Reed (CB, ≥85% snaps) 65% to play BUF +0.5 spread, total +0.5
Net vs neutral: no side, total +1.0
CAR @ ATL Wk 2
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +3.2 +0.1 -31
Total 42.3 40.9 37
Projection factors
  • ATL Michael Penix Jr. OUT CAR +2.6 spread, total -2.6
  • ATL defense: A.J. Terrell (CB, ≥85% snaps) 42% to play CAR +0.8 spread, total +0.8
  • ATL defense: Billy Bowman Jr. (CB, 80% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • CAR defense: Patrick Jones II (LB, 60–85% snaps) 73% to play ATL +0.4 spread, total +0.4
Net vs neutral: CAR +3.0, total -1.5
MIN @ CHI Wk 2
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +0.9 +4.0 -6
Total 43.9 40.3 12
Projection factors
  • Weather: 13 mph wind, 66°F total -0.5
  • MIN Kyler Murray OUT CHI +3.1 spread, total -3.1
  • CHI defense: Kyler Gordon (CB, 67% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
Net vs neutral: CHI +3.1, total -3.6
PIT @ NE Wk 2
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +1.1 +1.5 +17
Total 43.5 46.5 23
Projection factors
  • Rest edge NE (NE 11d vs PIT 7d) NE +0.8 spread
  • NE defense: Carlton Davis III (CB, ≥85% snaps) OUT; Dre'Mont Jones (LB, 60–85% snaps) 73% to play PIT +1.7 spread, total +1.7
  • PIT defense: Joey Porter Jr. (CB, ≥85% snaps) OUT NE +1.3 spread, total +1.3
Net vs neutral: NE +0.4, total +3.0
GB @ NYJ Wk 2
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread -0.2 +0.3 -3
Total 45.7 45.9 37
Projection factors
  • GB travel: 1 time zone NYJ +0.3 spread
  • NYJ defense: Minkah Fitzpatrick (S, 79% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • NYJ defense: Joseph Ossai (DE, 67% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • GB defense: Benjamin St-Juste (CB, <60% snaps) 65% to play NYJ +0.2 spread, total +0.2
Net vs neutral: NYJ +0.5, total +0.2
CIN @ HOU Wk 2
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +2.0 +5.8 -14
Total 48.7 46.2 26
Projection factors
  • CIN travel: 1 time zone HOU +0.3 spread
  • CIN QB1 Q · 47% HOU +3.0 spread, total -3.0
  • HOU defense: Collin Wright (CB) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • CIN defense: Josh Newton (CB, <60% snaps) OUT HOU +0.5 spread, total +0.5
  • CIN defense: Landon Robinson (DT) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: HOU +3.8, total -2.5
PHI @ TEN Wk 2
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread -6.0 -5.0 -4
Total 42.0 44.2 44
Projection factors
  • PHI travel: 1 time zone TEN +0.3 spread
  • TEN defense: Cordale Flott (CB, ≥85% snaps) 42% to play PHI +0.8 spread, total +0.8
  • TEN defense: Jackie Marshall (DT) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • PHI defense: Jonathan Greenard (LB, 60–85% snaps) OUT TEN +1.5 spread, total +1.5
Net vs neutral: TEN +1.0, total +2.2
NO @ BAL Wk 2
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +9.7 +7.0 -7
Total 44.5 48.3 41
Projection factors
  • NO travel: 1 time zone BAL +0.3 spread
  • BAL defense: Trey Hendrickson (LB, 60–85% snaps) 73% to play; Nnamdi Madubuike (DT, 60–85% snaps) OUT; T.J. Tampa (CB, <60% snaps) OUT; Teddye Buchanan (LB, 60–85% snaps) OUT NO +3.4 spread, total +3.4
  • NO defense: Chase Young (LB, 60–85% snaps) 73% to play BAL +0.4 spread, total +0.4
  • NO defense: Christen Miller (DT) 77% to play: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: NO +2.7, total +3.8
CLE @ TB Wk 2
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +5.7 +6.1 -4
Total 39.9 40.8 42
Projection factors
  • TB defense: Miles Killebrew (S, <60% snaps) 72% to play CLE +0.2 spread, total +0.2
  • TB defense: Jacob Parrish (CB, 64% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • TB defense: Ayden Garnes (CB) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • CLE defense: Noah Igbinoghene (CB, <60% snaps) 66% to play; Tyson Campbell (CB, ≥85% snaps) 65% to play TB +0.6 spread, total +0.6
  • CLE defense: Justin Jefferson (LB) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • CLE defense: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (LB) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: TB +0.4, total +0.9
LV @ LAC Wk 2
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread -0.4 -0.1 -12
Total 40.8 41.5 40
Projection factors
  • LAC defense: Deane Leonard (CB, <60% snaps) 65% to play LV +0.2 spread, total +0.2
  • LAC defense: Elijah Molden (S, 76% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • LV defense: Decamerion Richardson (CB, <60% snaps) OUT LAC +0.5 spread, total +0.5
  • LV defense: Darien Porter (CB, 68% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
Net vs neutral: LAC +0.3, total +0.7
JAX @ DEN Wk 2
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread -1.5 -2.4 +7
Total 45.7 47.1 33
Projection factors
  • JAX travel: 2 time zones DEN +0.6 spread
  • DEN defense: Jonathon Cooper (LB, 60–85% snaps) OUT JAX +1.5 spread, total +1.5
  • JAX defense: Wesley Williams (DE) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: JAX +0.9, total +1.5
WAS @ DAL Wk 2
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +4.4 +3.5 +17
Total 53.7 55.4 57
Projection factors
  • WAS travel: 1 time zone DAL +0.3 spread
  • DAL defense: DeMarvion Overshown (LB, 60–85% snaps) OUT WAS +1.5 spread, total +1.5
  • DAL defense: Malik Hooker (S, 67% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • WAS defense: Javon Kinlaw (DT, 60–85% snaps) 77% to play DAL +0.2 spread, total +0.2
  • WAS defense: Frankie Luvu (LB, 88% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (LB ≥85% snaps) 0.0
Net vs neutral: WAS +0.9, total +1.7
SEA @ ARI Wk 2
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread -3.7 +0.3 -24
Total 45.0 40.5 38
Projection factors
  • Rest edge SEA (ARI 7d vs SEA 11d) SEA +0.8 spread
  • SEA travel: 1 time zone ARI +0.3 spread
  • SEA Sam Darnold OUT ARI +4.8 spread, total -4.8
  • ARI defense: Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (S, <60% snaps) 65% to play SEA +0.3 spread, total +0.3
  • ARI defense: Garrett Williams (CB, 82% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • SEA defense: Ty Okada (S, 68% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S 60–85% snaps) 0.0
Net vs neutral: ARI +4.0, total -4.5
MIA @ SF Wk 2
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +4.6 +4.4 +22
Total 48.3 49.8 48
Projection factors
  • Rest edge SF (SF 10d vs MIA 7d) SF +0.4 spread
  • MIA travel: 3 time zones SF +0.9 spread
  • SF defense: Tatum Bethune (LB, 60–85% snaps) OUT MIA +1.5 spread, total +1.5
  • SF defense: Ephesians Prysock (CB) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • MIA defense: Tyrel Dodson (LB, 90% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (LB ≥85% snaps) 0.0
Net vs neutral: MIA +0.2, total +1.5
IND @ KC Wk 2
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +7.5 +7.5 +3
Total 45.2 45.4 63
Projection factors
  • IND travel: 1 time zone KC +0.3 spread
  • KC defense: Chris Jones (DT, 60–85% snaps) 77% to play IND +0.2 spread, total +0.2
  • KC defense: Chamarri Conner (S, 97% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • KC defense: Mansoor Delane (CB) 65% to play: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: no side, total +0.2
NYG @ LA Wk 2
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +1.5 +3.3 +22
Total 46.9 47.5 34
Projection factors
  • Rest edge LA (LA 11d vs NYG 8d) LA +0.4 spread
  • NYG travel: 3 time zones LA +0.9 spread
  • LA defense: Kamren Kinchens (S, 76% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • NYG defense: Deonte Banks (CB, <60% snaps) OUT LA +0.5 spread, total +0.5
  • NYG defense: Bobby Jamison-Travis (DT) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: LA +1.8, total +0.5
ATL @ GB Wk 3
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +9.7 +9.9 -21
Total 38.6 41.3 49
Projection factors
  • ATL travel: 1 time zone GB +0.3 spread
  • ATL QB1 change: Cooper Rush → Michael Penix Jr. ATL +1.4 spread, total +1.4
  • GB defense: Micah Parsons (OLB, 78% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • GB defense: Johnathan Baldwin (FS, 99% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • GB defense: Marlon Jones (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • ATL defense: A.J. Terrell (CB, ≥85% snaps) IR (roster status) GB +1.3 spread, total +1.3
  • ATL defense: Anterio Thompson (DT) NFI (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: GB +0.2, total +2.8
LAC @ BUF Wk 3
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +8.6 +8.7 +8
Total 48.9 49.5 40
Projection factors
  • Rest edge BUF (BUF 10d vs LAC 7d) BUF +0.4 spread
  • LAC travel: 3 time zones, body-clock kickoff BUF +0.9 spread
  • Weather: 14 mph wind, 69°F total -0.6
  • BUF defense: Ed Oliver (DT, 60–85% snaps) 82% to play; Jordan Hancock (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status); Dorian Strong (CB, <60% snaps) NFI (roster status) LAC +1.2 spread, total +1.2
  • BUF defense: Zane Durant (DE) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • LAC defense: Elijah Molden (S, 60–85% snaps) OUT: S 60–85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 94) not priced
  • LAC defense: Rodney Shelley (CB) 65% to play: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: no side, total +0.6
CAR @ CLE Wk 3
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +0.3 +2.3 +3
Total 40.3 43.0 39
Projection factors
  • Weather: 13 mph wind, 68°F total -0.3
  • CLE defense: Tyson Campbell (CB, ≥85% snaps) 65% to play CAR +0.5 spread, total +0.5
  • CLE defense: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (LB) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • CLE defense: Damarri Mathis (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • CLE defense: Edefuan Ulofoshio (MLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • CAR defense: Devin Lloyd (LB, 60–85% snaps) OUT; Tershawn Wharton (DT, 60–85% snaps) PUP (roster status) CLE +2.5 spread, total +2.5
  • CAR defense: Nick Scott (S, 98% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • CAR defense: Nic Scourton (OLB, 68% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
Net vs neutral: CLE +2.0, total +2.7
NYJ @ DET Wk 3
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +5.8 +5.4 +7
Total 46.7 47.6 55
Projection factors
  • Rest edge DET (DET 10d vs NYJ 7d) DET +0.4 spread
  • DET defense: Avonte Maddox (FS, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) NYJ +0.9 spread, total +0.9
  • DET defense: Thomas Harper (FS, 60–85% snaps) IR (roster status): S 60–85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 94) not priced
  • DET defense: Payton Turner (DE) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • DET defense: Kerby Joseph (FS, 88% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • DET defense: Brian Branch (SS, 96% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • NYJ defense: Minkah Fitzpatrick (S, 95% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • NYJ defense: Tre Brown (CB, 72% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • NYJ defense: VJ Payne (SS) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: NYJ +0.5, total +0.9
HOU @ IND Wk 3
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +0.2 +0.1 +2
Total 44.0 47.2 36
Projection factors
  • HOU travel: 1 time zone IND +0.3 spread
  • IND defense: Charvarius Ward (CB, ≥85% snaps) 72% to play; Cameron Mitchell (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status); Reuben Lowery (FS, <60% snaps) RESERVE (roster status) HOU +1.8 spread, total +1.8
  • HOU defense: M.J. Stewart (S, <60% snaps) OUT; Ja'Marcus Ingram (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) IND +1.4 spread, total +1.4
  • HOU defense: Henry To'oTo'o (OLB, 80% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • HOU defense: Solomon Byrd (DE) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • HOU defense: K.C. Ossai (ILB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • HOU defense: Kayden McDonald (DT) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: no side, total +3.2
KC @ MIA Wk 3
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread -1.8 -2.1 -14
Total 49.8 50.5 34
Projection factors
  • KC travel: 1 time zone MIA +0.3 spread
  • MIA defense: Julius Brents (CB, <60% snaps) 72% to play; Storm Duck (CB, <60% snaps) PUP (roster status) KC +0.7 spread, total +0.7
  • MIA defense: Darrell Baker Jr. (CB, 84% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • MIA defense: Rene Konga (DE) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • MIA defense: Trey Moore (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • MIA defense: Kyle Louis (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: KC +0.4, total +0.7
SEA @ WAS Wk 3
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread -5.5 -10.4 +2
Total 45.0 44.9 64
Projection factors
  • SEA travel: 3 time zones, body-clock kickoff WAS +0.9 spread
  • WAS Jayden Daniels OUT SEA +3.0 spread, total -3.0
  • SEA QB1 change: Drew Lock → Sam Darnold SEA +2.4 spread, total +2.4
  • WAS defense: Ahkello Witherspoon (CB, <60% snaps) RESERVE (roster status) SEA +0.5 spread, total +0.5
  • WAS defense: Frankie Luvu (LB, ≥85% snaps) OUT: LB ≥85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 79) not priced
  • WAS defense: Nick Cross (S, 97% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • WAS defense: Trey Amos (CB, 78% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • SEA defense: Julian Love (S, 92% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • SEA defense: Ty Okada (S, 60–85% snaps) OUT: S 60–85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 94) not priced
  • SEA defense: Terrion Arnold (CB, 64% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • SEA defense: Bud Clark (SS) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: SEA +5.0, total -0.1
NE @ JAX Wk 3
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +0.8 +3.5 +29
Total 47.4 51.1 41
Projection factors
  • JAX defense: Dane Jackson (CB, <60% snaps) RESERVE (roster status) NE +0.5 spread, total +0.5
  • JAX defense: Albert Regis (DT) 3% to play: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • JAX defense: Jared Bartlett (ILB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • JAX defense: Zach Durfee (DE) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • JAX defense: Parker Hughes (ILB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • JAX defense: Wesley Williams (DE) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • NE defense: Dre'Mont Jones (LB, 60–85% snaps) OUT; Brenden Schooler (FS, <60% snaps) NFI (roster status); Dell Pettus (FS, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) JAX +3.2 spread, total +3.2
  • NE defense: Craig Woodson (S, 93% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • NE defense: Quintayvious Hutchins (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • NE defense: Harold Landry III (OLB, 75% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • NE defense: Khalil Jacobs (ILB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • NE defense: Marcellas Dial Jr. (CB) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: JAX +2.7, total +3.7
CIN @ PIT Wk 3
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +0.1 +0.9 +3
Total 44.0 46.9 57
Projection factors
  • Weather: 14 mph wind, 70°F total -0.5
  • PIT defense: Joey Porter Jr. (CB, ≥85% snaps) OUT CIN +1.3 spread, total +1.3
  • PIT defense: DeShon Elliott (SS, 60–85% snaps) IR (roster status): S 60–85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 94) not priced
  • PIT defense: Daequan Hardy (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • PIT defense: Donte Kent (CB) PUP (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • CIN defense: B.J. Hill (DT, 60–85% snaps) OUT; Ja'Sir Taylor (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status); Josh Newton (CB, <60% snaps) OUT PIT +2.1 spread, total +2.1
  • CIN defense: Landon Robinson (DT) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: PIT +0.8, total +2.9
TEN @ NYG Wk 3
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +5.4 +3.6 +5
Total 45.5 49.8 19
Projection factors
  • TEN travel: 1 time zone NYG +0.3 spread
  • Weather: 15 mph wind, 61°F total -1.1
  • NYG QB1 change: Jaxson Dart → Jameis Winston TEN +0.2 spread, total -0.2
  • NYG defense: Brian Burns (LB, 60–85% snaps) 51% to play; Deonte Banks (CB, <60% snaps) 65% to play; Paulson Adebo (CB, ≥85% snaps) IR (roster status); Jarrick Bernard-Converse (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status); Rico Payton (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status); Korie Black (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) TEN +3.8 spread, total +3.8
  • NYG defense: Tyler Nubin (S, 95% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • NYG defense: Thaddeus Dixon (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • NYG defense: Bobby Jamison-Travis (DT) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • TEN defense: Cordale Flott (CB, ≥85% snaps) 65% to play; Joshua Williams (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status); Kendell Brooks (SS, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) NYG +1.9 spread, total +1.9
  • TEN defense: Milo Eifler (ILB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • TEN defense: Dorian Mausi (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • TEN defense: Jackie Marshall (DT) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: TEN +1.8, total +4.3
ARI @ SF Wk 3
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +10.0 +12.8 +6
Total 47.6 51.2 66
Projection factors
  • ARI travel: 1 time zone SF +0.3 spread
  • SF defense: Nate Hobbs (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) ARI +0.5 spread, total +0.5
  • SF defense: Nick Bosa (DE, 64% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • SF defense: James Thompson Jr. (DT) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • SF defense: Romello Height (DE) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • SF defense: Darrick Forrest (FS) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • SF defense: Andrew Farmer (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • SF defense: Mykel Williams (DE, 67% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • SF defense: Mikail Kamara (DE) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • ARI defense: Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (S, <60% snaps) OUT; Kitan Crawford (FS, <60% snaps) IR (roster status); Will Johnson (CB, ≥85% snaps) IR (roster status) SF +3.1 spread, total +3.1
  • ARI defense: Joey Blount (FS) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • ARI defense: Kaleb Proctor (DT) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: SF +2.8, total +3.6
MIN @ TB Wk 3
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread -2.7 -4.3 -7
Total 39.7 41.6 39
Projection factors
  • MIN travel: 1 time zone TB +0.3 spread
  • MIN QB1 change: Carson Wentz → Kyler Murray MIN +0.4 spread, total +0.4
  • TB defense: Rueben Bain Jr. (LB, 60–85% snaps) OUT MIN +1.5 spread, total +1.5
  • TB defense: Rueben Bain Jr. (LB) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • TB defense: Josiah Trotter (LB) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • TB defense: Josh Hayes (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • TB defense: Josiah Trotter (LB, ≥85% snaps) OUT: LB ≥85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 79) not priced
  • MIN defense: Tyreek Chappell (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: MIN +1.6, total +1.9
BAL @ DAL Wk 3
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread -2.2 -3.7 -3
Total 54.6 57.5 65
Projection factors
  • BAL travel: 1 time zone DAL +0.3 spread
  • DAL defense: P.J. Locke (SS, <60% snaps) IR (roster status); DeMarvion Overshown (LB, 60–85% snaps) OUT BAL +2.3 spread, total +2.3
  • DAL defense: Malik Hooker (S, 60–85% snaps) OUT: S 60–85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 94) not priced
  • DAL defense: Cobie Durant (CB, 73% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • DAL defense: Devin Moore (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • DAL defense: Kelvin Gilliam (NT) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • BAL defense: T.J. Tampa (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) DAL +0.5 spread, total +0.5
  • BAL defense: Bilhal Kone (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • BAL defense: Jahquez Robinson (SS) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • BAL defense: Robert Longerbeam (CB) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: BAL +1.5, total +2.8
LV @ NO Wk 3
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +0.6 +0.0 -8
Total 39.9 41.1 62
Projection factors
  • LV travel: 2 time zones NO +0.6 spread
  • NO defense: Martin Emerson (CB, <60% snaps) 65% to play; Bryan Bresee (DT, 60–85% snaps) IR (roster status) LV +1.2 spread, total +1.2
  • NO defense: Christen Miller (DT) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • NO defense: David Long (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • NO defense: Rejzohn Wright (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • NO defense: Lorenzo Styles Jr. (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • LV defense: Treydan Stukes (S) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • LV defense: Chigozie Anusiem (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • LV defense: Brennan Jackson (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • LV defense: Keyron Crawford (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • LV defense: Devin White (LB, ≥85% snaps) OUT: LB ≥85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 79) not priced
Net vs neutral: LV +0.6, total +1.2
LA @ DEN Wk 3
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +0.8 -0.4 +4
Total 41.1 42.5 56
Projection factors
  • LA travel: 1 time zone DEN +0.3 spread
  • DEN defense: Jonathon Cooper (LB, 60–85% snaps) OUT LA +1.5 spread, total +1.5
  • DEN defense: Matt Henningsen (DE) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • DEN defense: Tyler Onyedim (DT) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • LA defense: Kamren Kinchens (S, 60–85% snaps) 1% to play: S 60–85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 94) not priced
  • LA defense: Myles Garrett (OLB, 82% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • LA defense: Keir Thomas (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • LA defense: Eddie Walls III (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • LA defense: Daniel Rickert (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: LA +1.2, total +1.5
PHI @ CHI Wk 3
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +2.3 +2.2 +20
Total 46.0 45.6 34
Projection factors
  • PHI travel: 1 time zone CHI +0.3 spread
  • CHI Caleb Williams OUT PHI +2.2 spread, total -2.2
  • CHI defense: Jonathan Garvin (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • CHI defense: Tony Fields II (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • CHI defense: Dallis Flowers (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • CHI defense: Nephi Sewell (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • CHI defense: Kyler Gordon (CB, 67% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • CHI defense: Coby Bryant (FS, 96% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • PHI defense: Jonathan Greenard (LB, 60–85% snaps) 78% to play; Jakorian Bennett (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status); Andre' Sam (FS, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) CHI +1.7 spread, total +1.7
  • PHI defense: Tucker Large (S) NFI (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: PHI +0.2, total -0.5
PIT @ CLE Wk 4
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +1.6 +1.6 +3
Total 39.9 39.9 51
Projection factors
  • CLE defense: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (LB) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • CLE defense: Damarri Mathis (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • CLE defense: Edefuan Ulofoshio (MLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • PIT defense: DeShon Elliott (SS, 60–85% snaps) IR (roster status): S 60–85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 94) not priced
  • PIT defense: Daequan Hardy (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • PIT defense: Donte Kent (CB) PUP (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
IND @ WAS Wk 4
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +1.3 -1.1 -17
Total 47.1 46.3 43
Projection factors
  • WAS Jayden Daniels OUT IND +3.0 spread, total -3.0
  • WAS defense: Percy Butler (S, <60% snaps) 72% to play; Ahkello Witherspoon (CB, <60% snaps) RESERVE (roster status) IND +0.8 spread, total +0.8
  • WAS defense: Nick Cross (S, 97% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • WAS defense: Trey Amos (CB, 78% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • IND defense: Cameron Mitchell (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status); Reuben Lowery (FS, <60% snaps) RESERVE (roster status) WAS +1.4 spread, total +1.4
  • IND defense: George Gumbs Jr. (DE) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: IND +2.4, total -0.8
NE @ BUF Wk 4
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +4.0 +7.1 -3
Total 50.3 57.0 55
Projection factors
  • BUF defense: Christian Benford (CB, ≥85% snaps) 42% to play; Jordan Hancock (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status); Dorian Strong (CB, <60% snaps) NFI (roster status) NE +1.8 spread, total +1.8
  • BUF defense: Zane Durant (DE) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • NE defense: Dre'Mont Jones (LB, 60–85% snaps) 73% to play; Christian Elliss (LB, 60–85% snaps) 73% to play; Christian Barmore (DT, 60–85% snaps) OUT; Brenden Schooler (FS, <60% snaps) NFI (roster status); Christian Gonzalez (CB, ≥85% snaps) OUT; Dell Pettus (FS, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) BUF +4.9 spread, total +4.9
  • NE defense: Channing Canada (CB) 65% to play: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • NE defense: Harold Landry III (OLB, 75% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • NE defense: Khalil Jacobs (ILB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • NE defense: Quintayvious Hutchins (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • NE defense: Channing Canada (CB) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: BUF +3.1, total +6.7
NYJ @ CHI Wk 4
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +6.1 +3.4 +11
Total 45.3 44.0 35
Projection factors
  • NYJ travel: 1 time zone CHI +0.3 spread
  • CHI Caleb Williams OUT NYJ +2.2 spread, total -2.2
  • CHI defense: Cam Lewis (S, <60% snaps) 1% to play NYJ +0.9 spread, total +0.9
  • CHI defense: Kyler Gordon (CB, 67% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • CHI defense: Jonathan Garvin (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • CHI defense: Tony Fields II (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • CHI defense: Dallis Flowers (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • CHI defense: Nephi Sewell (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • CHI defense: Coby Bryant (FS, 96% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • NYJ defense: Tre Brown (CB, 72% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • NYJ defense: VJ Payne (SS) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: NYJ +2.7, total -1.3
DAL @ HOU Wk 4
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +0.7 +1.7 -4
Total 48.8 52.5 64
Projection factors
  • HOU defense: M.J. Stewart (FS, <60% snaps) PUP (roster status); Ja'Marcus Ingram (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) DAL +1.4 spread, total +1.4
  • HOU defense: Azeez Al-Shaair (LB, ≥85% snaps) OUT: LB ≥85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 79) not priced
  • HOU defense: Henry To'oTo'o (OLB, 80% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • HOU defense: Solomon Byrd (DE) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • HOU defense: K.C. Ossai (ILB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • HOU defense: Kayden McDonald (DT) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • DAL defense: DeMarvion Overshown (LB, 60–85% snaps) OUT; P.J. Locke (SS, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) HOU +2.3 spread, total +2.3
  • DAL defense: Cobie Durant (CB, 73% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • DAL defense: Jalen Thompson (FS, 98% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • DAL defense: Devin Moore (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • DAL defense: Kelvin Gilliam (NT) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: HOU +0.9, total +3.7
LA @ PHI Wk 4
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread -0.6 -0.6 -4
Total 43.4 46.9 44
Projection factors
  • LA travel: 3 time zones, body-clock kickoff PHI +0.9 spread
  • PHI defense: Marcus Epps (S, <60% snaps) OUT; Jakorian Bennett (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status); Andre' Sam (FS, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) LA +2.3 spread, total +2.3
  • PHI defense: Zack Baun (LB, ≥85% snaps) OUT: LB ≥85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 79) not priced
  • PHI defense: Tucker Large (S) NFI (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • LA defense: Jaylen Watson (CB, ≥85% snaps) OUT PHI +1.3 spread, total +1.3
  • LA defense: Myles Garrett (OLB, 82% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • LA defense: Keir Thomas (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • LA defense: Eddie Walls III (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • LA defense: Daniel Rickert (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: no side, total +3.6
GB @ TB Wk 4
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +2.4 -1.6 -3
Total 45.1 41.2 31
Projection factors
  • Rest edge GB (TB 7d vs GB 10d) GB +0.4 spread
  • GB travel: 1 time zone TB +0.3 spread
  • TB Baker Mayfield OUT GB +3.9 spread, total -3.9
  • TB defense: SirVocea Dennis (LB, ≥85% snaps) 73% to play: LB ≥85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 79) not priced
  • TB defense: Benjamin Morrison (CB, 62% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • TB defense: Rueben Bain Jr. (LB) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • TB defense: Josh Hayes (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • GB defense: Edgerrin Cooper (LB, ≥85% snaps) 78% to play: LB ≥85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 79) not priced
  • GB defense: Micah Parsons (OLB, 78% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • GB defense: Johnathan Baldwin (FS, 99% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • GB defense: Marlon Jones (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: GB +4.0, total -3.9
TEN @ BAL Wk 4
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +13.0 +14.1 +6
Total 45.5 50.3 42
Projection factors
  • TEN travel: 1 time zone BAL +0.3 spread
  • BAL defense: Trey Hendrickson (LB, 60–85% snaps) OUT; T.J. Tampa (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) TEN +2.0 spread, total +2.0
  • BAL defense: Bilhal Kone (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • BAL defense: Jahquez Robinson (SS) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • TEN defense: Joshua Williams (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status); Kendell Brooks (SS, <60% snaps) IR (roster status); Jihad Ward (LB, 60–85% snaps) OUT BAL +2.8 spread, total +2.8
  • TEN defense: Kevin Winston Jr. (S, 60–85% snaps) 42% to play: S 60–85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 94) not priced
  • TEN defense: Milo Eifler (ILB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • TEN defense: Dorian Mausi (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • TEN defense: Jackie Marshall (DT) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: BAL +1.2, total +4.8
JAX @ CIN Wk 4
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread -0.6 -1.4 -5
Total 50.6 52.9 39
Projection factors
  • CIN defense: B.J. Hill (DT, 60–85% snaps) OUT; Ja'Sir Taylor (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) JAX +1.5 spread, total +1.5
  • CIN defense: Kyle Dugger (S, 60–85% snaps) OUT: S 60–85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 94) not priced
  • CIN defense: Bryan Cook (S, 60–85% snaps) 65% to play: S 60–85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 94) not priced
  • CIN defense: Jalen Davis (CB, 66% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • CIN defense: Landon Robinson (DT) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • JAX defense: Christian Braswell (CB, <60% snaps) 65% to play; Dane Jackson (CB, <60% snaps) RESERVE (roster status) CIN +0.7 spread, total +0.7
  • JAX defense: Albert Regis (DT) 77% to play: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • JAX defense: Jared Bartlett (ILB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • JAX defense: Zach Durfee (DE) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • JAX defense: Parker Hughes (ILB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • JAX defense: Wesley Williams (DE) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: JAX +0.8, total +2.3
ARI @ NYG Wk 4
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +0.9 +1.6 +12
Total 47.0 53.0 60
Projection factors
  • ARI travel: 2 time zones NYG +0.6 spread
  • NYG defense: Paulson Adebo (CB, ≥85% snaps) IR (roster status); Jarrick Bernard-Converse (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status); Rico Payton (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status); Korie Black (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) ARI +2.9 spread, total +2.9
  • NYG defense: Brian Burns (OLB, 77% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • NYG defense: Thaddeus Dixon (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • ARI defense: Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (S, <60% snaps) OUT; Kitan Crawford (FS, <60% snaps) IR (roster status); Will Johnson (CB, ≥85% snaps) IR (roster status) NYG +3.1 spread, total +3.1
  • ARI defense: Joey Blount (FS) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • ARI defense: Kaleb Proctor (DT) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: NYG +0.8, total +5.9
MIA @ MIN Wk 4
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +3.1 +3.4 +5
Total 41.8 42.9 25
Projection factors
  • MIA travel: 1 time zone MIN +0.3 spread
  • MIN defense: Charles Demmings (CB, <60% snaps) OUT MIA +0.5 spread, total +0.5
  • MIN defense: Charles Demmings (CB) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • MIN defense: Tyreek Chappell (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • MIA defense: Storm Duck (CB, <60% snaps) OUT MIN +0.5 spread, total +0.5
  • MIA defense: Darrell Baker Jr. (CB, 84% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • MIA defense: Rene Konga (DE) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • MIA defense: Trey Moore (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • MIA defense: Kyle Louis (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: MIN +0.3, total +1.0
KC @ LV Wk 4
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread -1.1 -0.5 -3
Total 46.4 46.4 57
Projection factors
  • KC travel: 2 time zones LV +0.6 spread
  • LV defense: Chigozie Anusiem (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • LV defense: Brennan Jackson (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • LV defense: Keyron Crawford (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: LV +0.6, total +0.0
LAC @ SEA Wk 4
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +8.4 +9.1 +7
Total 41.4 42.1 53
Projection factors
  • SEA defense: Ty Okada (S, 60–85% snaps) 72% to play: S 60–85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 94) not priced
  • SEA defense: Terrion Arnold (CB, 64% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • SEA defense: Bud Clark (SS) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • LAC defense: Donte Jackson (CB, <60% snaps) 72% to play; Nikko Reed (DB, <60% snaps) OUT SEA +0.7 spread, total +0.7
  • LAC defense: Elijah Molden (S, 60–85% snaps) 65% to play: S 60–85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 94) not priced
Net vs neutral: SEA +0.7, total +0.7
DEN @ SF Wk 4
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +4.6 +5.4 +10
Total 50.4 52.7 38
Projection factors
  • DEN travel: 1 time zone SF +0.3 spread
  • SF defense: Dre Greenlaw (LB, 60–85% snaps) 73% to play; Nate Hobbs (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) DEN +0.9 spread, total +0.9
  • SF defense: Nick Bosa (DE, 64% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • SF defense: Mykel Williams (DE, 67% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • SF defense: Jaden Dugger (LB) 73% to play: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • SF defense: James Thompson Jr. (DT) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • SF defense: Darrick Forrest (FS) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • SF defense: Andrew Farmer (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • SF defense: Mikail Kamara (DE) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • DEN defense: Jonathon Cooper (LB, 60–85% snaps) OUT SF +1.5 spread, total +1.5
  • DEN defense: Matt Henningsen (DE) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: SF +0.8, total +2.4
DET @ CAR Wk 4
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread -2.9 -3.9 +6
Total 49.0 55.3 58
Projection factors
  • CAR defense: Mike Jackson (CB, ≥85% snaps) IR (roster status); Tershawn Wharton (DT, 60–85% snaps) PUP (roster status); Jaycee Horn (CB, ≥85% snaps) IR (roster status) DET +3.7 spread, total +3.7
  • CAR defense: Lee Hunter (DT) 77% to play: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • CAR defense: Nic Scourton (OLB, 68% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • DET defense: D.J. Reed (CB, ≥85% snaps) 65% to play; Avonte Maddox (FS, <60% snaps) IR (roster status); Brian Branch (CB, ≥85% snaps) OUT CAR +2.6 spread, total +2.6
  • DET defense: Payton Turner (DE) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • DET defense: Kerby Joseph (FS, 88% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • DET defense: Thomas Harper (FS, 60–85% snaps) IR (roster status): S 60–85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 94) not priced
Net vs neutral: DET +1.0, total +6.3
ATL @ NO Wk 4
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +3.8 +1.8 -21
Total 38.1 42.6 69
Projection factors
  • Rest edge ATL (NO 8d vs ATL 11d) ATL +0.4 spread
  • ATL travel: 1 time zone NO +0.3 spread
  • NO defense: Carl Granderson (LB, 60–85% snaps) OUT; Pete Werner (LB, 60–85% snaps) 51% to play; Bryan Bresee (DT, 60–85% snaps) IR (roster status) ATL +3.2 spread, total +3.2
  • NO defense: Kaden Elliss (LB, ≥85% snaps) OUT: LB ≥85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 79) not priced
  • NO defense: David Long (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • NO defense: Rejzohn Wright (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • NO defense: Lorenzo Styles Jr. (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • ATL defense: A.J. Terrell (CB, ≥85% snaps) IR (roster status) NO +1.3 spread, total +1.3
  • ATL defense: Divine Deablo (LB, ≥85% snaps) 73% to play: LB ≥85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 79) not priced
  • ATL defense: Anterio Thompson (DT) NFI (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: ATL +2.0, total +4.5
TB @ DAL Wk 5
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +3.7 +5.5 -8
Total 50.7 49.1 40
Projection factors
  • TB travel: 1 time zone DAL +0.3 spread
  • TB Baker Mayfield OUT DAL +3.9 spread, total -3.9
  • DAL defense: DeMarvion Overshown (LB, 60–85% snaps) OUT; P.J. Locke (SS, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) TB +2.3 spread, total +2.3
  • DAL defense: Cobie Durant (CB, 73% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • DAL defense: Jalen Thompson (FS, 98% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • DAL defense: Devin Moore (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • DAL defense: Kelvin Gilliam (NT) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • TB defense: Antoine Winfield Jr. (S, 99% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • TB defense: SirVocea Dennis (LB, ≥85% snaps) OUT: LB ≥85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 79) not priced
  • TB defense: Benjamin Morrison (CB, 62% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • TB defense: Josh Hayes (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: DAL +1.8, total -1.5
PHI @ JAX Wk 5
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +5.5 +6.5 +2
Total 46.8 51.7 36
Projection factors
  • JAX defense: Jaylon Jones (CB, <60% snaps) OUT; Dane Jackson (CB, <60% snaps) RESERVE (roster status); Caleb Ransaw (FS, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) PHI +1.9 spread, total +1.9
  • JAX defense: Eric Murray (S, 60–85% snaps) OUT: S 60–85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 94) not priced
  • JAX defense: Jared Bartlett (ILB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • JAX defense: Zach Durfee (DE) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • JAX defense: Parker Hughes (ILB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • JAX defense: Wesley Williams (DE) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • PHI defense: Marcus Epps (S, <60% snaps) OUT; Jonathan Greenard (LB, 60–85% snaps) 51% to play; Jakorian Bennett (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status); Andre' Sam (FS, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) JAX +3.0 spread, total +3.0
  • PHI defense: Tucker Large (S) NFI (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: JAX +1.1, total +4.9
CIN @ MIA Wk 5
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread -1.1 -1.1 -7
Total 49.9 51.0 55
Projection factors
  • MIA defense: Storm Duck (CB, <60% snaps) OUT CIN +0.5 spread, total +0.5
  • MIA defense: Reese Taylor (CB) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • MIA defense: Darrell Baker Jr. (CB, 84% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • MIA defense: Rene Konga (DE) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • MIA defense: Trey Moore (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • MIA defense: Kyle Louis (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • CIN defense: Ja'Sir Taylor (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) MIA +0.5 spread, total +0.5
  • CIN defense: Kyle Dugger (S, 60–85% snaps) OUT: S 60–85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 94) not priced
  • CIN defense: Bryan Cook (S, 60–85% snaps) 72% to play: S 60–85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 94) not priced
  • CIN defense: Jalen Davis (CB, 66% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
Net vs neutral: no side, total +1.0
LV @ NE Wk 5
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +1.4 -2.9 +28
Total 43.4 48.6 62
Projection factors
  • LV travel: 3 time zones, body-clock kickoff NE +0.9 spread
  • NE defense: Carlton Davis III (CB, ≥85% snaps) OUT; Dre'Mont Jones (LB, 60–85% snaps) 73% to play; Christian Elliss (LB, 60–85% snaps) 73% to play; Christian Barmore (DT, 60–85% snaps) 82% to play; Christian Gonzalez (CB, ≥85% snaps) OUT; Charles Woods (CB, <60% snaps) 65% to play; Dell Pettus (FS, <60% snaps) IR (roster status); Karon Prunty (CB, <60% snaps) OUT LV +5.2 spread, total +5.2
  • NE defense: Karon Prunty (CB) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • NE defense: Channing Canada (CB) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • NE defense: Harold Landry III (OLB, 75% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • NE defense: Khalil Jacobs (ILB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • NE defense: Quintayvious Hutchins (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • LV defense: Chigozie Anusiem (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • LV defense: Brennan Jackson (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • LV defense: Keyron Crawford (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: LV +4.3, total +5.2
CLE @ NYJ Wk 5
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread -0.5 +0.1 +5
Total 41.7 42.7 29
Projection factors
  • Rest edge CLE (NYJ 7d vs CLE 10d) CLE +0.4 spread
  • NYJ defense: Tre Brown (CB, 72% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • NYJ defense: VJ Payne (SS) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • CLE defense: Mason Graham (DT, 60–85% snaps) OUT NYJ +1.0 spread, total +1.0
  • CLE defense: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (OLB) PUP (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • CLE defense: Damarri Mathis (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • CLE defense: Edefuan Ulofoshio (MLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: NYJ +0.6, total +1.0
IND @ PIT Wk 5
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +2.6 +4.3 +12
Total 45.0 47.2 56
Projection factors
  • Rest edge PIT (PIT 10d vs IND 7d) PIT +0.4 spread
  • PIT defense: Jalen Ramsey (CB, ≥85% snaps) 65% to play IND +0.5 spread, total +0.5
  • PIT defense: DeShon Elliott (SS, 60–85% snaps) IR (roster status): S 60–85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 94) not priced
  • PIT defense: Jamel Dean (CB, 74% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • PIT defense: Daequan Hardy (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • PIT defense: Donte Kent (CB) PUP (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • IND defense: Charvarius Ward (CB, ≥85% snaps) 72% to play; Cameron Mitchell (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status); Reuben Lowery (FS, <60% snaps) RESERVE (roster status) PIT +1.8 spread, total +1.8
  • IND defense: Arden Key (DE, 62% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
Net vs neutral: PIT +1.7, total +2.2
NYG @ WAS Wk 5
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +1.6 +3.4 +0
Total 44.0 50.0 54
Projection factors
  • Weather: 13 mph wind, 66°F total -0.3
  • WAS QB1 change: Marcus Mariota → Jayden Daniels WAS +0.3 spread, total +0.3
  • WAS defense: Percy Butler (S, <60% snaps) OUT; Tyler Owens (S, <60% snaps) OUT; Ahkello Witherspoon (CB, <60% snaps) RESERVE (roster status) NYG +2.3 spread, total +2.3
  • WAS defense: Nick Cross (S, 97% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • WAS defense: Trey Amos (CB, 78% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • NYG defense: Jason Pinnock (S, <60% snaps) OUT; Paulson Adebo (CB, ≥85% snaps) IR (roster status); Jarrick Bernard-Converse (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status); Rico Payton (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status); Korie Black (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) WAS +3.8 spread, total +3.8
  • NYG defense: Brian Burns (OLB, 77% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • NYG defense: Thaddeus Dixon (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: WAS +1.8, total +6.0
CHI @ GB Wk 5
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread -1.2 +0.1 +24
Total 50.6 49.3 38
Projection factors
  • CHI QB1 Q · 40% GB +1.3 spread, total -1.3
  • GB defense: Micah Parsons (OLB, 78% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • GB defense: Edgerrin Cooper (ILB, ≥85% snaps) IR (roster status): LB ≥85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 79) not priced
  • GB defense: Johnathan Baldwin (FS, 99% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • CHI defense: Kyler Gordon (CB, 67% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • CHI defense: Keyshaun Elliott (LB) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • CHI defense: Jonathan Garvin (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • CHI defense: Tony Fields II (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • CHI defense: Dallis Flowers (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • CHI defense: Nephi Sewell (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • CHI defense: Coby Bryant (FS, 96% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
Net vs neutral: GB +1.3, total -1.3
MIN @ NO Wk 5
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread -2.5 -3.0 -10
Total 39.2 40.8 36
Projection factors
  • NO defense: Bryan Bresee (DT, 60–85% snaps) IR (roster status) MIN +1.0 spread, total +1.0
  • NO defense: Kaden Elliss (LB, ≥85% snaps) OUT: LB ≥85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 79) not priced
  • NO defense: Lorenzo Styles Jr. (CB) 72% to play: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • NO defense: Christen Miller (DT) 57% to play: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • NO defense: David Long (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • NO defense: Rejzohn Wright (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • NO defense: Nathan Shepherd (DE, 67% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • MIN defense: Charles Demmings (CB, <60% snaps) OUT NO +0.5 spread, total +0.5
  • MIN defense: Charles Demmings (CB) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: MIN +0.5, total +1.5
HOU @ TEN Wk 5
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread -4.3 -4.4 -23
Total 41.3 43.9 29
Projection factors
  • TEN defense: Joshua Williams (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status); Kendell Brooks (SS, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) HOU +1.4 spread, total +1.4
  • TEN defense: Amani Hooker (S, 95% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • TEN defense: Milo Eifler (ILB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • TEN defense: Dorian Mausi (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • TEN defense: Jackie Marshall (DT) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • TEN defense: Nate Lynn (LB) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • HOU defense: M.J. Stewart (S, <60% snaps) 72% to play; Ja'Marcus Ingram (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status); Jaylin Smith (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) TEN +1.3 spread, total +1.3
  • HOU defense: Kayden McDonald (DT) 82% to play: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • HOU defense: Henry To'oTo'o (OLB, 80% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • HOU defense: Solomon Byrd (DE) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • HOU defense: K.C. Ossai (ILB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • HOU defense: Aiden Fisher (LB) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • HOU defense: Collin Wright (CB) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: no side, total +2.7
DEN @ LAC Wk 5
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread -3.6 -0.2 -6
Total 40.2 45.4 40
Projection factors
  • DEN travel: 1 time zone LAC +0.3 spread
  • LAC defense: Donte Jackson (CB, <60% snaps) OUT; Nikko Reed (DB, <60% snaps) OUT DEN +1.0 spread, total +1.0
  • LAC defense: Derwin James (S, 93% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • LAC defense: Rodney Shelley (CB) 42% to play: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • LAC defense: Rodney Shelley (DB) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • DEN defense: Pat Surtain II (CB, ≥85% snaps) OUT; Riley Moss (CB, ≥85% snaps) OUT; Jonathon Cooper (LB, 60–85% snaps) OUT LAC +4.1 spread, total +4.1
  • DEN defense: Matt Henningsen (DE) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • DEN defense: Tyler Onyedim (DT) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: LAC +3.3, total +5.1
DET @ ARI Wk 5
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread -3.7 -4.4 -24
Total 50.4 53.4 66
Projection factors
  • DET travel: 2 time zones ARI +0.6 spread
  • ARI defense: Kitan Crawford (FS, <60% snaps) IR (roster status); Will Johnson (CB, ≥85% snaps) IR (roster status) DET +2.2 spread, total +2.2
  • ARI defense: Andrew Wingard (S, 93% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • ARI defense: Karson Sharar (LB) 73% to play: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • ARI defense: Joey Blount (FS) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • ARI defense: Kaleb Proctor (DT) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • DET defense: Avonte Maddox (FS, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) ARI +0.9 spread, total +0.9
  • DET defense: Rock Ya-Sin (CB, 63% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • DET defense: Brian Branch (S, 96% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • DET defense: Payton Turner (DE) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • DET defense: Kerby Joseph (FS, 88% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • DET defense: Thomas Harper (FS, 60–85% snaps) IR (roster status): S 60–85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 94) not priced
Net vs neutral: DET +0.7, total +3.1
SF @ SEA Wk 5
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread -0.2 +0.6 -3
Total 53.8 54.6 61
Projection factors
  • SEA defense: Julian Neal (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • SEA defense: Terrion Arnold (CB, 64% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • SEA defense: Bud Clark (SS) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • SF defense: Upton Stout (CB, <60% snaps) 42% to play; Nate Hobbs (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) SEA +0.8 spread, total +0.8
  • SF defense: Nick Bosa (DE, 64% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • SF defense: Marques Sigle (S, 60–85% snaps) OUT: S 60–85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 94) not priced
  • SF defense: James Thompson Jr. (DT) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • SF defense: Darrick Forrest (FS) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • SF defense: Andrew Farmer (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • SF defense: Mikail Kamara (DE) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: SEA +0.8, total +0.8
BAL @ ATL Wk 5
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread -4.3 +2.0 -7
Total 44.6 43.1 53
Projection factors
  • BAL Lamar Jackson OUT ATL +5.2 spread, total -5.2
  • ATL defense: A.J. Terrell (CB, ≥85% snaps) IR (roster status) BAL +1.3 spread, total +1.3
  • ATL defense: Divine Deablo (LB, ≥85% snaps) 73% to play: LB ≥85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 79) not priced
  • ATL defense: Anterio Thompson (DT) NFI (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • BAL defense: Marlon Humphrey (CB, ≥85% snaps) 65% to play; Trey Hendrickson (LB, 60–85% snaps) OUT; T.J. Tampa (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) ATL +2.4 spread, total +2.4
  • BAL defense: Bilhal Kone (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • BAL defense: Jahquez Robinson (SS) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: ATL +6.3, total -1.5
BUF @ LA Wk 5
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +0.9 +2.8 -3
Total 50.0 51.1 71
Projection factors
  • BUF travel: 3 time zones LA +0.9 spread
  • LA defense: Myles Garrett (OLB, 82% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • LA defense: Keir Thomas (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • LA defense: Eddie Walls III (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • LA defense: Daniel Rickert (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • BUF defense: Jordan Hancock (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status); Dorian Strong (CB, <60% snaps) NFI (roster status) LA +1.0 spread, total +1.0
  • BUF defense: Dee Alford (CB, 61% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • BUF defense: Zane Durant (DE) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: LA +1.9, total +1.0
SEA @ DEN Wk 6
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +0.2 +0.2 +3
Total 44.0 47.2 31
Projection factors
  • SEA travel: 1 time zone DEN +0.3 spread
  • DEN defense: Pat Surtain II (CB, ≥85% snaps) OUT; Riley Moss (CB, ≥85% snaps) 65% to play SEA +1.8 spread, total +1.8
  • DEN defense: Talanoa Hufanga (S, 96% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • DEN defense: Jonathon Cooper (OLB, 61% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • DEN defense: Matt Henningsen (DE) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • SEA defense: Drake Thomas (LB, 60–85% snaps) OUT DEN +1.5 spread, total +1.5
  • SEA defense: Terrion Arnold (CB, 64% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • SEA defense: Julian Neal (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • SEA defense: Bud Clark (SS) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: no side, total +3.2
HOU @ JAX Wk 6
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +4.3 +4.0 -3
Total 44.2 46.7 65
Projection factors
  • HOU travel: 1 time zone JAX +0.3 spread
  • JAX defense: Jaylon Jones (CB, <60% snaps) 65% to play; Dane Jackson (CB, <60% snaps) RESERVE (roster status); Caleb Ransaw (FS, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) HOU +1.6 spread, total +1.6
  • JAX defense: Montaric Brown (CB, 81% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • JAX defense: Jared Bartlett (ILB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • JAX defense: Zach Durfee (DE) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • JAX defense: Parker Hughes (ILB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • HOU defense: Ja'Marcus Ingram (CB, <60% snaps) 72% to play; Henry To'oTo'o (LB, 60–85% snaps) 78% to play; Jaylin Smith (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) JAX +1.0 spread, total +1.0
  • HOU defense: Jalen Pitre (S, 91% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • HOU defense: Solomon Byrd (DE) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • HOU defense: K.C. Ossai (ILB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: HOU +0.3, total +2.5
CHI @ ATL Wk 6
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread -0.4 -1.6 -8
Total 44.0 45.5 54
Projection factors
  • CHI travel: 1 time zone ATL +0.3 spread
  • CHI QB1 Q · 47% ATL +1.1 spread, total -1.1
  • ATL defense: C.J. Henderson (CB, ≥85% snaps) OUT; A.J. Terrell (CB, ≥85% snaps) IR (roster status) CHI +2.6 spread, total +2.6
  • ATL defense: Anterio Thompson (DT) NFI (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • CHI defense: T.J. Edwards (LB, ≥85% snaps) OUT: LB ≥85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 79) not priced
  • CHI defense: Dayo Odeyingbo (DE, 76% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • CHI defense: Keyshaun Elliott (LB) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • CHI defense: Montez Sweat (DE, 73% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • CHI defense: Tony Fields II (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • CHI defense: Dallis Flowers (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • CHI defense: Nephi Sewell (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • CHI defense: Coby Bryant (FS, 96% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • CHI defense: Keyshaun Elliott (LB) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: CHI +1.2, total +1.5
BAL @ CLE Wk 6
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread -2.5 +3.0 +3
Total 45.2 40.8 23
Projection factors
  • BAL Lamar Jackson OUT CLE +5.2 spread, total -5.2
  • CLE defense: Mason Graham (DT, 60–85% snaps) 77% to play BAL +0.2 spread, total +0.2
  • CLE defense: Carson Schwesinger (LB, ≥85% snaps) 73% to play: LB ≥85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 79) not priced
  • CLE defense: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (OLB) PUP (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • CLE defense: Damarri Mathis (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • CLE defense: Edefuan Ulofoshio (MLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • BAL defense: T.J. Tampa (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) CLE +0.5 spread, total +0.5
  • BAL defense: Bilhal Kone (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • BAL defense: Jahquez Robinson (SS) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: CLE +5.5, total -4.5
TEN @ IND Wk 6
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +7.1 +7.1 -6
Total 43.9 46.3 46
Projection factors
  • TEN travel: 1 time zone IND +0.3 spread
  • IND defense: Cameron Mitchell (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status); Reuben Lowery (FS, <60% snaps) RESERVE (roster status) TEN +1.4 spread, total +1.4
  • IND defense: Arden Key (DE, 62% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • TEN defense: Joshua Williams (CB, <60% snaps) 72% to play; Kendell Brooks (SS, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) IND +1.0 spread, total +1.0
  • TEN defense: Kevin Winston Jr. (S, 60–85% snaps) OUT: S 60–85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 94) not priced
  • TEN defense: Milo Eifler (ILB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • TEN defense: Dorian Mausi (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: no side, total +2.4
NYJ @ NE Wk 6
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +5.6 +2.6 +7
Total 43.6 46.6 45
Projection factors
  • NE defense: Carlton Davis III (CB, ≥85% snaps) OUT; Christian Elliss (LB, 60–85% snaps) 78% to play; Dell Pettus (FS, <60% snaps) IR (roster status); Karon Prunty (CB, <60% snaps) OUT NYJ +3.0 spread, total +3.0
  • NE defense: Karon Prunty (CB) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • NE defense: Channing Canada (CB) 65% to play: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • NE defense: Harold Landry III (OLB, 75% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • NE defense: Khalil Jacobs (ILB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • NE defense: Quintayvious Hutchins (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • NYJ defense: Joseph Ossai (DE, 67% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • NYJ defense: Dane Belton (S, 60–85% snaps) 72% to play: S 60–85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 94) not priced
  • NYJ defense: Tre Brown (CB, 72% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • NYJ defense: VJ Payne (SS) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: NYJ +3.0, total +3.0
NO @ NYG Wk 6
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +2.1 +0.8 -7
Total 42.8 46.9 61
Projection factors
  • NO travel: 1 time zone NYG +0.3 spread
  • NYG defense: Paulson Adebo (CB, ≥85% snaps) IR (roster status); Jarrick Bernard-Converse (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status); Rico Payton (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status); Korie Black (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) NO +2.9 spread, total +2.9
  • NYG defense: Tyler Nubin (S, 92% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • NYG defense: Abdul Carter (LB, ≥85% snaps) 73% to play: LB ≥85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 79) not priced
  • NYG defense: Colton Hood (CB) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • NYG defense: Brian Burns (OLB, 77% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • NYG defense: Thaddeus Dixon (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • NYG defense: Colton Hood (CB, 68% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • NO defense: Nathan Shepherd (DT, 60–85% snaps) 77% to play; Bryan Bresee (DT, 60–85% snaps) IR (roster status) NYG +1.3 spread, total +1.3
  • NO defense: Kaden Elliss (LB, ≥85% snaps) OUT: LB ≥85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 79) not priced
  • NO defense: Lorenzo Styles Jr. (CB) 65% to play: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • NO defense: David Long (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • NO defense: Rejzohn Wright (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: NO +1.3, total +4.1
CAR @ PHI Wk 6
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +1.6 -0.9 -11
Total 44.6 51.0 39
Projection factors
  • Rest edge CAR (PHI 7d vs CAR 14d) CAR +1.5 spread
  • PHI QB1 change: Jalen Hurts → Tanner McKee CAR +0.4 spread, total -0.4
  • PHI defense: Michael Carter II (S, <60% snaps) OUT; Jakorian Bennett (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status); Jalyx Hunt (LB, 60–85% snaps) OUT; Andre' Sam (FS, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) CAR +3.7 spread, total +3.7
  • PHI defense: Tucker Large (S) NFI (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • CAR defense: Tershawn Wharton (DT, 60–85% snaps) 82% to play; Jaelan Phillips (LB, 60–85% snaps) 78% to play; Mike Jackson (CB, ≥85% snaps) IR (roster status); Jaycee Horn (CB, ≥85% snaps) IR (roster status) PHI +3.1 spread, total +3.1
  • CAR defense: Nic Scourton (OLB, 68% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
Net vs neutral: CAR +2.5, total +6.5
PIT @ TB Wk 6
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +0.5 -2.3 -7
Total 42.7 39.5 45
Projection factors
  • Rest edge TB (TB 10d vs PIT 7d) TB +0.4 spread
  • TB Baker Mayfield OUT PIT +3.9 spread, total -3.9
  • TB defense: Antoine Winfield Jr. (S, 99% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • TB defense: SirVocea Dennis (LB, ≥85% snaps) 78% to play: LB ≥85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 79) not priced
  • TB defense: Benjamin Morrison (CB, 62% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • TB defense: Ayden Garnes (CB) 72% to play: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • TB defense: Josiah Trotter (LB) 73% to play: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • TB defense: Josh Hayes (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • PIT defense: Jalen Ramsey (CB, ≥85% snaps) 65% to play; Keeanu Benton (DT, 60–85% snaps) 82% to play TB +0.6 spread, total +0.6
  • PIT defense: DeShon Elliott (SS, 60–85% snaps) IR (roster status): S 60–85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 94) not priced
  • PIT defense: Daequan Hardy (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • PIT defense: Donte Kent (CB) PUP (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: PIT +2.8, total -3.2
ARI @ LA Wk 6
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +6.9 +7.5 -2
Total 45.7 48.7 34
Projection factors
  • ARI travel: 1 time zone LA +0.3 spread
  • LA defense: Trent McDuffie (CB, ≥85% snaps) OUT ARI +1.3 spread, total +1.3
  • LA defense: Myles Garrett (OLB, 82% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • LA defense: Keir Thomas (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • LA defense: Eddie Walls III (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • LA defense: Daniel Rickert (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • ARI defense: Kitan Crawford (S, <60% snaps) 65% to play; Will Johnson (CB, ≥85% snaps) IR (roster status) LA +1.6 spread, total +1.6
  • ARI defense: Andrew Wingard (S, 93% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • ARI defense: Wydett Williams Jr. (S) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • ARI defense: Joey Blount (FS) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • ARI defense: Kaleb Proctor (DT) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: LA +0.6, total +2.9
LAC @ KC Wk 6
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +7.7 +10.3 +16
Total 42.3 42.7 28
Projection factors
  • Rest edge KC (KC 14d vs LAC 7d) KC +1.5 spread
  • LAC travel: 2 time zones KC +0.6 spread
  • Weather: 12 mph wind, 66°F total -0.1
  • LAC defense: Donte Jackson (CB, <60% snaps) OUT KC +0.5 spread, total +0.5
  • LAC defense: Derwin James (S, 93% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • LAC defense: Daiyan Henley (LB, ≥85% snaps) 73% to play: LB ≥85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 79) not priced
  • LAC defense: Rodney Shelley (CB) 1% to play: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • LAC defense: Avery Smith (CB) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: KC +2.6, total +0.4
BUF @ LV Wk 6
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread -1.9 -0.5 -3
Total 52.8 54.4 63
Projection factors
  • BUF travel: 3 time zones LV +0.9 spread
  • LV defense: Tristin McCollum (DB, <60% snaps) OUT BUF +0.5 spread, total +0.5
  • LV defense: Chigozie Anusiem (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • LV defense: Brennan Jackson (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • LV defense: Keyron Crawford (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • LV defense: Cian Slone (DE) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • BUF defense: Jordan Hancock (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status); Dorian Strong (CB, <60% snaps) NFI (roster status) LV +1.0 spread, total +1.0
  • BUF defense: Zane Durant (DE) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: LV +1.4, total +1.6
DAL @ GB Wk 6
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +3.0 +5.1 +10
Total 54.7 58.2 36
Projection factors
  • Rest edge DAL (GB 7d vs DAL 10d) DAL +0.4 spread
  • GB defense: Benjamin St-Juste (CB, <60% snaps) OUT DAL +0.5 spread, total +0.5
  • GB defense: Brandon Cisse (CB) 65% to play: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • GB defense: Micah Parsons (OLB, 78% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • GB defense: Edgerrin Cooper (ILB, ≥85% snaps) IR (roster status): LB ≥85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 79) not priced
  • GB defense: Johnathan Baldwin (FS, 99% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • DAL defense: DeMarvion Overshown (LB, 60–85% snaps) OUT; Ameer Speed (CB, <60% snaps) 65% to play; Joey Porter Jr. (CB, ≥85% snaps) 65% to play; P.J. Locke (SS, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) GB +3.0 spread, total +3.0
  • DAL defense: Cobie Durant (CB, 73% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • DAL defense: LT Overton (DT) 57% to play: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • DAL defense: Jalen Thompson (FS, 98% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • DAL defense: Devin Moore (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • DAL defense: Kelvin Gilliam (NT) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: GB +2.0, total +3.5
WAS @ SF Wk 6
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +8.7 +10.3 +6
Total 50.3 52.0 40
Projection factors
  • WAS travel: 3 time zones SF +0.9 spread
  • Weather: 13 mph wind, 61°F total -0.3
  • SF defense: Upton Stout (CB, <60% snaps) 65% to play; Nate Hobbs (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) WAS +0.7 spread, total +0.7
  • SF defense: Siran Neal (S) 65% to play: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • SF defense: Nick Bosa (DE, 64% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • SF defense: Marques Sigle (S, 60–85% snaps) OUT: S 60–85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 94) not priced
  • SF defense: Gracen Halton (DT) 77% to play: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • SF defense: Dre Greenlaw (OLB, 63% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • SF defense: Darrick Forrest (FS) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • SF defense: Andrew Farmer (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • SF defense: Mikail Kamara (DE) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • WAS defense: Javon Kinlaw (DT, 60–85% snaps) 77% to play; Percy Butler (S, <60% snaps) 65% to play; Tyler Owens (S, <60% snaps) 65% to play; Ahkello Witherspoon (CB, <60% snaps) RESERVE (roster status) SF +1.4 spread, total +1.4
  • WAS defense: Trey Amos (CB, 78% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
Net vs neutral: SF +1.6, total +1.8
NE @ CHI Wk 7
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +0.6 +2.4 +6
Total 47.3 51.8 54
Projection factors
  • NE travel: 1 time zone CHI +0.3 spread
  • CHI defense: Jack Sanborn (LB, 60–85% snaps) OUT NE +1.5 spread, total +1.5
  • CHI defense: T.J. Edwards (LB, ≥85% snaps) 3% to play: LB ≥85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 79) not priced
  • CHI defense: Montez Sweat (DE, 73% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • CHI defense: Dayo Odeyingbo (DE, 76% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • CHI defense: Tony Fields II (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • CHI defense: Dallis Flowers (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • CHI defense: Nephi Sewell (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • CHI defense: Coby Bryant (FS, 96% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • NE defense: Carlton Davis III (CB, ≥85% snaps) OUT; Christian Elliss (LB, 60–85% snaps) 78% to play; Dell Pettus (FS, <60% snaps) IR (roster status); Karon Prunty (CB, <60% snaps) OUT CHI +3.0 spread, total +3.0
  • NE defense: Karon Prunty (CB) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • NE defense: Channing Canada (CB) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • NE defense: Harold Landry III (OLB, 75% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • NE defense: Khalil Jacobs (ILB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • NE defense: Quintayvious Hutchins (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • NE defense: Channing Canada (CB) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: CHI +1.9, total +4.5
PIT @ NO Wk 7
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread -2.1 -2.8 -6
Total 42.6 44.5 26
Projection factors
  • PIT travel: 1 time zone NO +0.3 spread
  • NO defense: Nathan Shepherd (DT, 60–85% snaps) 57% to play; Bryan Bresee (DT, 60–85% snaps) IR (roster status) PIT +1.5 spread, total +1.5
  • NO defense: David Long (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • NO defense: Rejzohn Wright (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • PIT defense: Brandin Echols (CB, <60% snaps) OUT NO +0.5 spread, total +0.5
  • PIT defense: DeShon Elliott (S, 60–85% snaps) 72% to play: S 60–85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 94) not priced
  • PIT defense: Daequan Hardy (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • PIT defense: Donte Kent (CB) PUP (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: PIT +0.6, total +2.0
TB @ CAR Wk 7
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +2.1 +0.0 -30
Total 42.8 44.9 56
Projection factors
  • TB QB1 Q · 47% CAR +2.0 spread, total -2.0
  • CAR defense: Jaelan Phillips (LB, 60–85% snaps) OUT; Mike Jackson (CB, ≥85% snaps) IR (roster status); Jaycee Horn (CB, ≥85% snaps) IR (roster status) TB +4.1 spread, total +4.1
  • CAR defense: Nic Scourton (OLB, 68% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • TB defense: Christian Rozeboom (ILB, ≥85% snaps) IR (roster status): LB ≥85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 79) not priced
  • TB defense: Antoine Winfield Jr. (S, 99% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • TB defense: Josh Hayes (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: TB +2.1, total +2.1
NYG @ HOU Wk 7
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +5.6 +8.4 -6
Total 43.7 45.3 48
Projection factors
  • NYG travel: 1 time zone HOU +0.3 spread
  • NYG QB1 change: Jameis Winston → J.J. McCarthy HOU +1.0 spread, total -1.0
  • HOU defense: Jaylin Smith (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) NYG +0.5 spread, total +0.5
  • HOU defense: Reed Blankenship (S, 95% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • HOU defense: Jalen Pitre (S, 91% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • HOU defense: Solomon Byrd (DE) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • HOU defense: K.C. Ossai (ILB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • NYG defense: Paulson Adebo (CB, ≥85% snaps) 65% to play; Jarrick Bernard-Converse (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status); Rico Payton (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status); Korie Black (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) HOU +2.0 spread, total +2.0
  • NYG defense: Tremaine Edmunds (ILB, ≥85% snaps) IR (roster status): LB ≥85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 79) not priced
  • NYG defense: Greg Newsome II (CB, 82% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • NYG defense: Jevon Holland (S, 96% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • NYG defense: Brian Burns (OLB, 77% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • NYG defense: Thaddeus Dixon (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: HOU +2.8, total +1.6
MIA @ NYJ Wk 7
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +2.5 +1.0 -3
Total 44.7 44.7 53
Projection factors
  • Rest edge MIA (NYJ 7d vs MIA 14d) MIA +1.5 spread
  • NYJ defense: Joseph Ossai (DE, 67% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • NYJ defense: Tre Brown (CB, 72% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • NYJ defense: VJ Payne (SS) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • MIA defense: Reese Taylor (CB) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • MIA defense: Kyle Louis (S) 72% to play: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • MIA defense: Darrell Baker Jr. (CB, 84% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • MIA defense: Rene Konga (DE) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • MIA defense: Trey Moore (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: MIA +1.5, total +0.0
CIN @ BAL Wk 7
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +2.7 -4.1 -22
Total 50.8 46.6 48
Projection factors
  • Rest edge CIN (BAL 7d vs CIN 14d) CIN +1.5 spread
  • BAL Lamar Jackson OUT CIN +5.2 spread, total -5.2
  • BAL defense: T.J. Tampa (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) CIN +0.5 spread, total +0.5
  • BAL defense: Jaylinn Hawkins (S, 93% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • BAL defense: Tavius Robinson (OLB, 69% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • BAL defense: Bilhal Kone (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • BAL defense: Jahquez Robinson (SS) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • CIN defense: Ja'Sir Taylor (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) BAL +0.5 spread, total +0.5
  • CIN defense: Jalen Davis (CB, 66% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • CIN defense: Landon Robinson (DT) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: CIN +6.7, total -4.2
IND @ MIN Wk 7
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +5.2 +9.7 +6
Total 39.1 41.8 26
Projection factors
  • Rest edge MIN (MIN 14d vs IND 7d) MIN +1.5 spread
  • IND travel: 1 time zone MIN +0.3 spread
  • IND defense: Sauce Gardner (CB, ≥85% snaps) OUT; Cameron Mitchell (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status); Reuben Lowery (FS, <60% snaps) RESERVE (roster status) MIN +2.7 spread, total +2.7
  • IND defense: CJ Allen (LB) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • IND defense: Bryce Boettcher (LB) 51% to play: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • IND defense: Arden Key (DE, 62% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
Net vs neutral: MIN +4.5, total +2.7
CLE @ TEN Wk 7
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread -3.7 -3.8 -3
Total 39.0 40.3 51
Projection factors
  • CLE travel: 1 time zone TEN +0.3 spread
  • TEN defense: Kendell Brooks (SS, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) CLE +0.9 spread, total +0.9
  • TEN defense: Tony Adams (S, 60–85% snaps) 65% to play: S 60–85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 94) not priced
  • TEN defense: Kevin Winston Jr. (S, 60–85% snaps) 65% to play: S 60–85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 94) not priced
  • TEN defense: Dorian Mausi (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • TEN defense: Milo Eifler (ILB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • TEN defense: Jackie Marshall (DT) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • CLE defense: Denzel Ward (CB, ≥85% snaps) 65% to play TEN +0.5 spread, total +0.5
  • CLE defense: Quincy Williams (LB, ≥85% snaps) 73% to play: LB ≥85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 79) not priced
  • CLE defense: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (OLB) PUP (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • CLE defense: Damarri Mathis (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • CLE defense: Edefuan Ulofoshio (MLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • CLE defense: Justin Jefferson (LB) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: CLE +0.1, total +1.3
SF @ ATL Wk 7
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread -4.4 -3.7 +9
Total 45.7 47.4 49
Projection factors
  • SF travel: 3 time zones, body-clock kickoff ATL +0.9 spread
  • ATL defense: C.J. Henderson (CB, ≥85% snaps) 72% to play; A.J. Terrell (CB, ≥85% snaps) 72% to play; Gervon Dexter Sr. (DT, 60–85% snaps) 77% to play SF +1.0 spread, total +1.0
  • ATL defense: Divine Deablo (LB, ≥85% snaps) OUT: LB ≥85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 79) not priced
  • ATL defense: Billy Bowman Jr. (CB, 80% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • ATL defense: Kendal Daniels (LB) 78% to play: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • ATL defense: Avieon Terrell (CB) 65% to play: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • ATL defense: Anterio Thompson (DT) NFI (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • SF defense: Upton Stout (CB, <60% snaps) 65% to play; Nate Hobbs (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) ATL +0.7 spread, total +0.7
  • SF defense: Siran Neal (S) 65% to play: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • SF defense: Nick Bosa (DE, 64% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • SF defense: Marques Sigle (S, 60–85% snaps) OUT: S 60–85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 94) not priced
  • SF defense: Darrick Forrest (FS) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • SF defense: Andrew Farmer (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • SF defense: Mikail Kamara (DE) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: ATL +0.6, total +1.7
DEN @ ARI Wk 7
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread -3.2 -4.4 -14
Total 44.4 46.2 46
Projection factors
  • Rest edge DEN (ARI 7d vs DEN 10d) DEN +0.4 spread
  • ARI defense: Will Johnson (CB, ≥85% snaps) IR (roster status) DEN +1.3 spread, total +1.3
  • ARI defense: Andrew Wingard (S, 93% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • ARI defense: Joey Blount (FS) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • ARI defense: Kaleb Proctor (DT) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • DEN defense: Pat Surtain II (CB, ≥85% snaps) 65% to play ARI +0.5 spread, total +0.5
  • DEN defense: Talanoa Hufanga (S, 96% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • DEN defense: Matt Henningsen (DE) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: DEN +1.3, total +1.8
GB @ DET Wk 7
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +2.8 +4.0 +3
Total 50.7 51.7 37
Projection factors
  • Rest edge DET (DET 14d vs GB 7d) DET +1.5 spread
  • GB travel: 1 time zone DET +0.3 spread
  • DET defense: Avonte Maddox (FS, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) GB +0.9 spread, total +0.9
  • DET defense: Devin White (OLB, ≥85% snaps) IR (roster status): EDGE ≥85% snaps unpriceable — too few observations to estimate (n = 5) not priced
  • DET defense: Payton Turner (DE) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • DET defense: Thomas Harper (FS, 60–85% snaps) IR (roster status): S 60–85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 94) not priced
  • GB defense: Benjamin St-Juste (CB, <60% snaps) 65% to play DET +0.2 spread, total +0.2
  • GB defense: Zaire Franklin (LB, ≥85% snaps) OUT: LB ≥85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 79) not priced
  • GB defense: Bo Melton (CB) 72% to play: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • GB defense: Micah Parsons (OLB, 78% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • GB defense: Edgerrin Cooper (ILB, ≥85% snaps) IR (roster status): LB ≥85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 79) not priced
  • GB defense: Johnathan Baldwin (FS, 99% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
Net vs neutral: DET +1.1, total +1.0
LA @ LV Wk 7
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +1.0 +1.2 -14
Total 43.9 47.2 56
Projection factors
  • LV defense: Tristin McCollum (DB, <60% snaps) OUT; Jonah Laulu (DT, 60–85% snaps) OUT LA +1.5 spread, total +1.5
  • LV defense: Quay Walker (LB, ≥85% snaps) 78% to play: LB ≥85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 79) not priced
  • LV defense: Chigozie Anusiem (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • LV defense: Brennan Jackson (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • LV defense: Keyron Crawford (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • LV defense: Cian Slone (DE) OUT: no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • LA defense: Trent McDuffie (CB, ≥85% snaps) 42% to play; Kobie Turner (DT, 60–85% snaps) IR (roster status) LV +1.8 spread, total +1.8
  • LA defense: Nate Landman (LB, ≥85% snaps) OUT: LB ≥85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 79) not priced
  • LA defense: Myles Garrett (OLB, 82% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • LA defense: Eddie Walls III (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • LA defense: Daniel Rickert (OLB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: LV +0.2, total +3.3
KC @ SEA Wk 7
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +1.8 +0.8 +17
Total 47.1 49.0 23
Projection factors
  • Rest edge SEA (SEA 10d vs KC 7d) SEA +0.4 spread
  • KC travel: 2 time zones SEA +0.6 spread
  • SEA defense: Drake Thomas (LB, 60–85% snaps) OUT; Noah Igbinoghene (CB, <60% snaps) OUT KC +2.0 spread, total +2.0
  • SEA defense: Nick Emmanwori (S, 60–85% snaps) 65% to play: S 60–85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 94) not priced
  • SEA defense: Terrion Arnold (CB, 64% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (CB 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • SEA defense: Julian Neal (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • SEA defense: Bud Clark (SS) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: KC +1.0, total +2.0
DAL @ PHI Wk 7
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +0.3 -3.0 -17
Total 49.1 54.4 59
Projection factors
  • DAL travel: 1 time zone PHI +0.3 spread
  • PHI defense: Jonathan Greenard (LB, 60–85% snaps) 51% to play; Michael Carter II (CB, <60% snaps) OUT; Nolan Smith (LB, 60–85% snaps) OUT; Jakorian Bennett (CB, <60% snaps) IR (roster status); Jalyx Hunt (LB, 60–85% snaps) 73% to play; Andre' Sam (FS, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) DAL +4.5 spread, total +4.5
  • PHI defense: Tucker Large (S) NFI (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • DAL defense: P.J. Locke (SS, <60% snaps) IR (roster status) PHI +0.9 spread, total +0.9
  • DAL defense: Dee Winters (LB, ≥85% snaps) OUT: LB ≥85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 79) not priced
  • DAL defense: Jalen Thompson (FS, 98% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • DAL defense: Devin Moore (CB) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
  • DAL defense: Kelvin Gilliam (NT) IR (roster status): no snap history — no tier matched not priced
Net vs neutral: DAL +3.3, total +5.3
CAR @ GB Wk 8
NeutralLocked Actual
Spread +4.2 +8.8 +8
Total 46.1 50.9 46
Projection factors
  • CAR travel: 1 time zone GB +0.3 spread
  • GB defense: Devonte Wyatt (DT, 60–85% snaps) 77% to play CAR +0.2 spread, total +0.2
  • GB defense: Zaire Franklin (LB, ≥85% snaps) OUT: LB ≥85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 79) not priced
  • GB defense: Micah Parsons (OLB, 78% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
  • GB defense: Edgerrin Cooper (ILB, ≥85% snaps) IR (roster status): LB ≥85% snaps unpriceable — estimate came back backwards — noise or selection (n = 79) not priced
  • GB defense: Johnathan Baldwin (FS, 99% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (S ≥85% snaps) 0.0
  • CAR defense: Jaelan Phillips (LB, 60–85% snaps) OUT; Akayleb Evans (CB, <60% snaps) OUT; Mike Jackson (CB, ≥85% snaps) IR (roster status); Jaycee Horn (CB, ≥85% snaps) IR (roster status) GB +4.6 spread, total +4.6
  • CAR defense: Nic Scourton (OLB, 68% snaps) OUT — no measured rating impact (EDGE 60–85% snaps) 0.0
Net vs neutral: GB +4.7, total +4.8

Season futures

The immutable pre-season futures lock — the public record graded against actual results at season end.

Locked 59d ago · model n6-v1 · 32 teams · pending grade.

#TeamProj mean Wp25–p75 Playoff%MarketFair OverActual W
1 BAL 10.9 10.0–12.0 84% 11.5 35% —
2 DET 10.7 9.0–12.0 80% 10.5 54% —
3 SEA 10.5 9.0–12.0 77% 10.5 49% —
4 DAL 9.7 8.0–11.0 65% 9.5 53% —
5 BUF 9.6 8.0–11.0 66% 10.5 35% —
6 PHI 9.6 8.0–11.0 63% 10.5 35% —
7 HOU 9.6 8.0–11.0 67% 9.5 52% —
8 KC 9.4 8.0–11.0 61% 10.5 31% —
9 DEN 9.4 8.0–11.0 59% 9.5 47% —
10 SF 9.3 8.0–11.0 56% 10.5 29% —
11 GB 9.0 8.0–10.0 50% 9.5 37% —
12 MIA 8.9 7.0–10.0 51% 4.5 98% —
13 CIN 8.8 7.0–10.0 47% 9.5 38% —
14 PIT 8.8 7.0–10.0 47% 8.5 56% —
15 JAX 8.7 7.0–10.0 48% 8.5 54% —
16 LA 8.6 7.0–10.0 43% 11.5 10% —
17 ATL 8.5 7.0–10.0 49% 6.5 82% —
18 MIN 8.5 7.0–10.0 41% 8.5 51% —
19 TB 8.5 7.0–10.0 48% 8.5 50% —
20 NE 8.5 7.0–10.0 43% 10.5 18% —
21 IND 8.1 7.0–9.0 36% 7.5 65% —
22 CHI 7.8 6.0–9.0 28% 9.5 23% —
23 LV 7.7 6.0–9.0 28% 5.5 84% —
24 WAS 7.6 6.0–9.0 25% 7.5 51% —
25 LAC 7.5 6.0–9.0 25% 9.5 18% —
26 NO 7.4 6.0–9.0 27% 7.5 49% —
27 NYG 7.4 6.0–9.0 22% 7.5 48% —
28 CLE 7.3 6.0–9.0 19% 6.5 63% —
29 ARI 6.8 5.0–8.0 14% 4.5 85% —
30 NYJ 6.7 5.0–8.0 14% 5.5 70% —
31 CAR 6.5 5.0–8.0 14% 7.5 32% —
32 TEN 5.7 4.0–7.0 6% 6.5 37% —

Model-derived fair values, not betting advice.

Live drive props

Every drive's outcome distribution is locked at drive start and graded against what the drive did — about 22 predictions a game, which makes this the live model's primary accountability sample rather than the win-probability bar. Scored as multiclass Brier (sum of squared errors across all five class probabilities, 0–2), against a baseline that predicts this sample's own observed base rate every time.

2278
drives graded
0.6516
multiclass Brier
0.6200
base-rate baseline
-5.1%
better than base rate
OutcomeMean predicted ObservedDiffn
TD 0.263 0.232 -0.030 2278
FG 0.154 0.159 +0.004 2278
PUNT 0.327 0.546 +0.219 2278
TURNOVER 0.118 0.007 -0.110 2278
OTHER 0.139 0.056 -0.082 2278

Model nfl-live-1 · 2278 drive(s) captured, 0 awaiting a result. Offline holdout figures and the full calibration tables are in research/nfl/live_fit.md.