NFL Player Projections

Week 5 — opponent-adjusted (this week's defence, home/away), availability-weighted, byes zeroed. Components (volume × efficiency) with scoring applied as a view. Model n8-v2 · updated 18d ago.

Week: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8• Season Position: All QB RB WR TE

Scoring: PPR Half Standard DK Rank by: VORP Points ⬇ CSV

League & scoring settings — server-side, from your stored component projections; the URL is the saved config

167 players · ranked by VORP under standard scoring, 12-team league (1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1FLEX). thin prior (n) = the efficiency prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted 2023–25 dropbacks (QB) or 55 touches (RB/WR/TE), so the league average carries about half or more of the line's efficiency; ⚠ = low-sample / rookie (archetype-driven). A designation like Q · 60% means the line is weighted by that play probability; BYE rows project 0 and are kept visible.

Replacement level (VORP is measured against these): QB12 Brock Purdy · 17.8 pts · RB29 Will Shipley · 7.0 pts · WR41 DeMario Douglas · 5.6 pts · TE13 Hunter Henry · 5.1 pts

#	Player	Pos	Tm	Opp	Status	Pts	VORP	Tgt	Rec	RecYd	RecTD	Car
1	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	SEA	vs SF		12.1	+6.5	9.6	6.7	90.6	0.5	0.1
2	CeeDee Lamb	WR	DAL	vs TB		11.9	+6.3	10.1	6.7	91.0	0.5	0.4
3	Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	@ ARI		10.9	+5.2	9.0	6.3	76.0	0.5	0.1
4	Puka Nacua	WR	LA	vs BUF		10.3	+4.7	8.3	6.0	78.8	0.4	0.4
5	Michael Wilson	WR	ARI	vs DET		9.5	+3.9	8.4	5.3	68.7	0.4	0.1
6	Nico Collins	WR	HOU	@ TEN		9.2	+3.5	7.1	4.5	67.9	0.4	0.3
7	Drake London	WR	ATL	vs BAL		8.8	+3.2	7.8	4.8	64.0	0.4	0.3
8	Romeo Doubs ⚠	WR	NE	vs LV		8.8	+3.2	7.3	4.6	61.6	0.4	0.1
9	Chris Olave	WR	NO	vs MIN		8.6	+2.9	8.3	5.4	62.2	0.4	0.2
10	Parker Washington	WR	JAX	vs PHI		8.4	+2.8	7.6	4.8	61.2	0.4	0.3
11	Christian Watson thin prior (54 touches)	WR	GB	vs CHI		8.4	+2.8	6.3	3.8	60.8	0.4	0.1
12	DK Metcalf	WR	PIT	vs IND		8.4	+2.8	6.7	4.1	61.3	0.4	0.1
13	Tee Higgins	WR	CIN	@ MIA	Q · 78%	8.1	+2.5	6.4	4.0	53.7	0.5	0.1
14	George Pickens	WR	DAL	vs TB		8.0	+2.4	6.1	3.9	60.5	0.3	0.2
15	Jaylen Waddle ⚠	WR	DEN	@ LAC		8.0	+2.4	7.4	4.8	60.1	0.3	0.3
16	Malik Washington thin prior (43 touches)	WR	MIA	vs CIN		7.8	+2.1	7.5	5.0	55.1	0.4	0.9
17	Garrett Wilson	WR	NYJ	vs CLE		7.6	+1.9	8.0	4.9	54.5	0.4	0.2
18	Tre Harris thin prior (22 touches)	WR	LAC	vs DEN		7.5	+1.9	7.2	4.7	55.5	0.3	0.1
19	Mike Evans ⚠	WR	SF	@ SEA		7.4	+1.8	7.5	4.5	50.5	0.4	0.1
20	Khalil Shakir	WR	BUF	@ LA		7.3	+1.7	7.1	5.1	54.5	0.3	0.1
21	Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	@ MIA	Q · 78%	7.2	+1.5	6.1	4.1	51.0	0.3	0.1
22	Denzel Boston thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CLE	@ NYJ		7.1	+1.5	7.3	4.1	51.9	0.3	0.1
23	Malik Nabers	WR	NYG	@ WAS		7.1	+1.5	6.6	4.1	51.6	0.3	0.1
24	Emeka Egbuka	WR	TB	@ DAL		7.0	+1.3	6.6	3.7	50.3	0.3	0.3
25	Dontayvion Wicks ⚠	WR	PHI	@ JAX		6.9	+1.3	6.7	4.1	49.0	0.3	0.2
26	Luther Burden III thin prior (30 touches)	WR	CHI	@ GB		6.8	+1.2	6.0	4.1	51.7	0.3	0.5
27	Josh Downs	WR	IND	@ PIT		6.8	+1.1	7.0	4.6	49.3	0.3	0.1
28	Jameson Williams	WR	DET	@ ARI		6.7	+1.1	5.1	3.2	49.4	0.3	0.1
29	KC Concepcion thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CLE	@ NYJ		6.6	+0.9	6.7	3.7	47.8	0.3	0.6
30	Matthew Golden thin prior (22 touches)	WR	GB	vs CHI		6.4	+0.8	5.9	3.8	48.6	0.3	0.3
31	Tre Tucker	WR	LV	@ NE		6.1	+0.5	5.9	3.6	43.9	0.3	0.1
32	Rome Odunze	WR	CHI	@ GB		6.1	+0.5	5.9	3.3	43.4	0.3	0.2
33	Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	@ NO	Q · 72%	6.0	+0.4	5.8	3.6	46.3	0.2	0.1
34	Wan'Dale Robinson ⚠	WR	TEN	vs HOU		6.0	+0.4	6.8	4.5	45.6	0.2	0.3
35	Courtland Sutton	WR	DEN	@ LAC		6.0	+0.4	5.9	3.6	42.0	0.3	0.2
36	Roman Wilson thin prior (10 touches)	WR	PIT	vs IND		6.0	+0.3	5.1	3.1	42.7	0.3	0.1
37	Zay Flowers	WR	BAL	@ ATL	Q · 72%	6.0	+0.3	5.2	3.5	45.7	0.2	0.2
38	Terry McLaurin	WR	WAS	vs NYG	Q · 72%	5.9	+0.3	4.9	3.2	42.4	0.3	0.1
39	Antonio Williams thin prior (0 touches)	WR	WAS	vs NYG		5.9	+0.2	5.8	3.2	42.7	0.3	0.2
40	Davante Adams	WR	LA	vs BUF		5.8	+0.2	6.1	3.5	37.9	0.3	0.1
41	DeMario Douglas	WR	NE	vs LV		5.6	+0.0	5.0	3.3	42.0	0.2	0.1
42	Devaughn Vele thin prior (36 touches)	WR	NO	vs MIN		5.6	-0.0	5.4	3.5	40.7	0.3	0.2
43	Carnell Tate thin prior (0 touches)	WR	TEN	vs HOU	Q · 72%	5.5	-0.2	5.8	3.2	39.7	0.2	0.1
44	Kendrick Bourne thin prior (49 touches)	WR	ARI	vs DET		5.4	-0.2	5.1	3.4	41.5	0.2	0.1
45	Rashod Bateman thin prior (52 touches)	WR	BAL	@ ATL		5.4	-0.3	4.8	2.9	37.5	0.3	0.2
46	Ryan Flournoy thin prior (32 touches)	WR	DAL	vs TB		5.3	-0.3	4.5	3.0	38.2	0.2	0.2
47	Chris Godwin Jr.	WR	TB	@ DAL		5.3	-0.4	5.0	3.3	38.9	0.2	0.4
48	Jauan Jennings ⚠	WR	MIN	@ NO		5.2	-0.4	4.8	3.0	35.5	0.3	0.2
49	Dohnte Meyers thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CIN	@ MIA		5.0	-0.6	5.2	2.9	36.7	0.2	0.3
50	Chris Bell thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIA	vs CIN		5.0	-0.6	4.8	2.7	36.6	0.2	0.2
51	Keon Coleman thin prior (47 touches)	WR	BUF	@ LA		5.0	-0.6	4.9	3.0	35.6	0.2	0.1
52	Brian Thomas Jr.	WR	JAX	vs PHI		4.9	-0.7	4.5	2.7	36.6	0.2	0.1
53	Jakobi Meyers	WR	JAX	vs PHI		4.9	-0.8	4.9	3.2	36.4	0.2	0.3
54	Jahan Dotson thin prior (44 touches)	WR	ATL	vs BAL		4.9	-0.8	4.7	2.8	35.8	0.2	0.1
55	Rashid Shaheed	WR	SEA	vs SF		4.8	-0.8	4.3	2.7	36.0	0.2	0.5
56	Kalif Raymond thin prior (30 touches)	WR	CHI	@ GB		4.8	-0.9	4.6	3.2	35.7	0.2	0.2
57	Malachi Fields thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NYG	@ WAS		4.7	-0.9	4.7	2.6	34.2	0.2	0.1
58	Deebo Samuel Sr.	WR	SF	@ SEA		4.7	-1.0	4.6	3.1	33.7	0.2	1.0
59	Cody White thin prior (3 touches)	WR	LV	@ NE		4.5	-1.2	3.9	2.5	32.7	0.2	0.1
60	Tim Patrick thin prior (25 touches)	WR	NYJ	vs CLE	Q · 78%	4.4	-1.2	4.4	2.9	30.9	0.2	0.3
61	Makai Lemon thin prior (0 touches)	WR	PHI	@ JAX		4.4	-1.2	4.7	2.6	32.0	0.2	0.3
62	Marvin Harrison Jr. ⚠	WR	HOU	@ TEN		4.4	-1.3	3.8	2.2	31.0	0.2	0.1
63	Isaac TeSlaa thin prior (14 touches)	WR	DET	@ ARI		3.9	-1.7	3.2	2.0	26.2	0.2	0.1
64	Laquon Treadwell thin prior (1 touches)	WR	IND	@ PIT		3.9	-1.8	3.9	2.5	28.2	0.2	0.1
65	Efton Chism III thin prior (2 touches)	WR	NE	vs LV		3.9	-1.8	3.2	2.0	28.1	0.2	0.2
66	Isaiah Williams thin prior (19 touches)	WR	NYJ	vs CLE		3.8	-1.8	4.1	2.7	28.3	0.2	0.4
67	Kevin Coleman Jr. thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIA	vs CIN		3.8	-1.8	3.7	2.0	27.9	0.2	0.2
68	Jerry Jeudy	WR	CLE	@ NYJ		3.8	-1.8	3.8	2.2	29.1	0.1	0.2
69	Ted Hurst III thin prior (0 touches)	WR	TB	@ DAL		3.8	-1.8	3.9	2.2	27.6	0.2	0.1
70	Keenan Allen ⚠	WR	IND	@ PIT	Q · 78%	3.7	-1.9	4.7	3.0	26.9	0.2	0.1
71	Kayshon Boutte thin prior (45 touches)	WR	HOU	@ TEN		3.7	-1.9	2.9	1.9	26.6	0.2	0.1
72	Xavier Hutchinson thin prior (40 touches)	WR	HOU	@ TEN		3.7	-2.0	3.5	2.1	26.6	0.2	0.4
73	Marquez Valdes-Scantling thin prior (36 touches)	WR	LAC	vs DEN		3.5	-2.1	3.7	2.1	25.1	0.2	0.2
74	Tai Felton thin prior (2 touches)	WR	MIN	@ NO		3.5	-2.1	3.5	2.2	25.6	0.2	0.2
75	Ladd McConkey	WR	LAC	vs DEN	Q · 50%	3.5	-2.1	3.1	2.0	25.1	0.2	0.1
76	Germie Bernard thin prior (0 touches)	WR	PIT	vs IND		3.4	-2.2	3.3	1.8	24.5	0.2	0.2
77	Devontez Walker thin prior (5 touches)	WR	BAL	@ ATL		3.3	-2.3	2.7	1.7	23.1	0.2	0.2
78	Mitchell Tinsley thin prior (12 touches)	WR	CIN	@ MIA		3.3	-2.3	3.1	1.8	23.1	0.2	0.2
79	Skyy Moore thin prior (12 touches)	WR	GB	vs CHI		3.3	-2.3	2.9	1.8	24.2	0.1	0.1
80	Elic Ayomanor thin prior (44 touches)	WR	TEN	vs HOU		3.2	-2.4	3.3	1.8	22.5	0.2	0.1
81	Treylon Burks thin prior (19 touches)	WR	WAS	vs NYG		3.2	-2.4	2.9	1.7	23.2	0.1	0.2
82	Darnell Mooney ⚠	WR	NYG	@ WAS		3.2	-2.5	3.0	1.7	23.9	0.1	0.3
83	Darius Cooper thin prior (6 touches)	WR	PHI	@ JAX		3.1	-2.6	2.9	1.9	22.6	0.1	0.2
84	Cooper Kupp	WR	SEA	vs SF		3.1	-2.6	3.0	2.0	22.4	0.1	0.1
85	Dyami Brown thin prior (35 touches)	WR	WAS	vs NYG		2.8	-2.8	2.6	1.6	20.6	0.1	0.2
86	Olamide Zaccheaus ⚠	WR	ATL	vs BAL		2.8	-2.9	2.7	1.7	19.7	0.1	0.1
87	Bryce Lance thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NO	vs MIN		2.7	-2.9	3.0	1.7	20.0	0.1	0.2
88	Jordan Whittington thin prior (21 touches)	WR	LA	vs BUF		2.6	-3.0	2.4	1.6	19.6	0.1	0.2
89	Theo Wease Jr. thin prior (5 touches)	WR	LAC	vs DEN		2.5	-3.1	2.2	1.4	18.6	0.1	0.3
90	Brandin Cooks thin prior (50 touches)	WR	SF	@ SEA		2.5	-3.1	2.9	1.8	18.1	0.1	0.2
91	Troy Franklin	WR	DEN	@ LAC		2.5	-3.2	2.6	1.6	17.2	0.1	0.4
92	Tez Johnson thin prior (22 touches)	WR	TB	@ DAL		2.2	-3.4	2.0	1.3	15.4	0.1	0.4
93	Jalen Brooks thin prior (13 touches)	WR	ARI	vs DET		2.2	-3.4	2.1	1.2	16.3	0.1	0.1
94	Dareke Young thin prior (2 touches)	WR	LV	@ NE		2.2	-3.4	2.0	1.3	16.1	0.1	0.1
95	Calvin Ridley	WR	TEN	vs HOU		2.2	-3.4	2.3	1.3	16.5	0.1	0.1
96	Konata Mumpfield thin prior (12 touches)	WR	LA	vs BUF		2.2	-3.5	2.1	1.2	15.4	0.1	0.1
97	Kyle Williams thin prior (10 touches)	WR	NE	vs LV		2.1	-3.5	1.7	1.1	15.2	0.1	0.1
98	Chris Moore thin prior (18 touches)	WR	BAL	@ ATL		2.0	-3.6	2.0	1.2	15.3	0.1	0.2
99	Jalen Tolbert thin prior (48 touches)	WR	MIA	vs CIN		1.9	-3.7	1.6	1.0	13.4	0.1	0.2
100	Greg Dortch thin prior (40 touches)	WR	BUF	@ LA		1.9	-3.7	1.9	1.3	13.0	0.1	0.1
101	Tory Horton thin prior (11 touches)	WR	SEA	vs SF		1.9	-3.8	1.5	1.0	12.5	0.1	0.2
102	Marvin Mims Jr. thin prior (48 touches)	WR	DEN	@ LAC		1.8	-3.8	1.8	1.2	13.1	0.1	0.3
103	Jaylin Noel thin prior (18 touches)	WR	HOU	@ TEN		1.8	-3.9	1.6	1.0	12.8	0.1	0.5
104	Josh Cameron thin prior (0 touches)	WR	JAX	vs PHI		1.7	-3.9	1.8	1.0	12.3	0.1	0.1
105	Zachariah Branch thin prior (0 touches)	WR	ATL	vs BAL		1.7	-4.0	1.7	0.9	12.2	0.1	0.1
106	Deion Burks thin prior (0 touches)	WR	IND	@ PIT		1.6	-4.0	1.8	1.0	11.8	0.1	0.4
107	Ben Skowronek thin prior (7 touches)	WR	PIT	vs IND		1.6	-4.0	1.3	0.9	11.6	0.1	0.2
108	KaVontae Turpin thin prior (38 touches)	WR	DAL	vs TB		1.6	-4.0	1.4	0.9	11.7	0.1	0.5
109	Myles Price thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIN	@ NO		1.6	-4.0	1.6	1.0	11.6	0.1	0.3
110	Cedric Tillman thin prior (43 touches)	WR	NO	vs MIN		1.6	-4.0	1.6	1.0	11.4	0.1	0.3
111	Skyler Bell thin prior (0 touches)	WR	BUF	@ LA		1.5	-4.1	1.7	1.0	11.2	0.1	0.3
112	Malik McClain thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NYJ	vs CLE		1.5	-4.1	1.6	0.9	10.8	0.1	0.3
113	Jared Wayne thin prior (1 touches)	WR	HOU	@ TEN		1.5	-4.2	1.3	0.8	10.7	0.1	0.0
114	Isaiah Bond thin prior (22 touches)	WR	CLE	@ NYJ		1.4	-4.3	1.3	0.8	10.2	0.1	0.2
115	Charlie Jones thin prior (3 touches)	WR	NYG	@ WAS		1.3	-4.3	1.2	0.8	9.7	0.1	0.2
116	Ryan Miller thin prior (8 touches)	WR	MIA	vs CIN		1.3	-4.3	1.1	0.7	9.1	0.1	0.2
117	Tutu Atwell thin prior (40 touches)	WR	LA	vs BUF		1.3	-4.3	1.1	0.7	9.7	0.1	0.2
118	Elijah Moore ⚠	WR	PHI	@ JAX		1.3	-4.3	1.5	0.9	9.6	0.1	0.3
119	Bo Melton ⚠	WR	GB	vs CHI		1.3	-4.3	1.1	0.7	9.2	0.1	0.1
120	Jacob Cowing thin prior (2 touches)	WR	SF	@ SEA		1.2	-4.4	1.2	0.7	8.7	0.1	0.2
121	Malik Benson thin prior (0 touches)	WR	LV	@ NE		1.1	-4.5	1.2	0.7	8.4	0.1	0.2
122	Chimere Dike thin prior (37 touches)	WR	TEN	vs HOU		1.1	-4.5	1.1	0.7	7.5	0.1	0.1
123	Derius Davis thin prior (10 touches)	WR	LAC	vs DEN		1.0	-4.6	1.0	0.6	7.3	0.0	0.2
124	LaJohntay Wester thin prior (0 touches)	WR	BAL	@ ATL		1.0	-4.6	0.9	0.6	7.3	0.0	0.2
125	Simi Fehoko thin prior (5 touches)	WR	ARI	vs DET		1.0	-4.6	0.9	0.6	7.2	0.0	0.1
126	Zavion Thomas thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CHI	@ GB		1.0	-4.6	1.1	0.6	7.2	0.0	0.2
127	Jordan Watkins thin prior (2 touches)	WR	SF	@ SEA		1.0	-4.7	1.0	0.6	7.0	0.0	0.2
128	Chris Blair thin prior (1 touches)	WR	ATL	vs BAL		0.9	-4.8	0.8	0.5	6.3	0.0	0.1
129	Jahdae Walker thin prior (5 touches)	WR	CHI	@ GB		0.8	-4.8	0.7	0.5	5.7	0.0	0.3
130	Lil'Jordan Humphrey thin prior (30 touches)	WR	DEN	@ LAC		0.8	-4.8	0.8	0.5	5.8	0.0	0.3
131	Tom Kennedy thin prior (2 touches)	WR	DET	@ ARI		0.8	-4.8	0.8	0.5	5.9	0.0	0.1
132	J. Michael Sturdivant thin prior (0 touches)	WR	GB	vs CHI		0.8	-4.8	0.8	0.4	5.8	0.0	0.1
133	Luke McCaffrey thin prior (15 touches)	WR	WAS	vs NYG		0.8	-4.8	0.6	0.4	5.6	0.0	0.3
134	Nick Westbrook-Ikhine thin prior (37 touches)	WR	IND	@ PIT		0.7	-4.9	0.6	0.4	4.7	0.0	0.2
135	Dalen Cambre thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NYG	@ WAS		0.7	-4.9	0.6	0.4	4.9	0.0	0.3
136	Kameron Johnson thin prior (4 touches)	WR	TB	@ DAL		0.7	-5.0	0.6	0.4	4.7	0.0	0.1
137	Deven Thompkins thin prior (8 touches)	WR	LV	@ NE		0.6	-5.0	0.6	0.4	4.5	0.0	0.2
138	Jeshaun Jones thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIN	@ NO		0.6	-5.0	0.6	0.4	4.6	0.0	0.2
139	Travis Hunter ⚠	WR	JAX	vs PHI		0.6	-5.0	0.6	0.4	4.4	0.0	0.3
140	Jonathan Mingo thin prior (32 touches)	WR	DAL	vs TB	Q · 50%	0.4	-5.2	0.5	0.3	3.3	0.0	0.1
141	Tay Martin thin prior (2 touches)	WR	DET	@ ARI		0.4	-5.2	0.4	0.2	2.9	0.0	0.2
142	Devin Duvernay thin prior (9 touches)	WR	ARI	vs DET		0.3	-5.3	0.3	0.2	2.4	0.0	0.1
143	Malachi Corley thin prior (9 touches)	WR	CLE	@ NYJ		0.3	-5.3	0.3	0.2	2.3	0.0	0.2
144	Kaden Wetjen thin prior (0 touches)	WR	PIT	vs IND		0.3	-5.3	0.3	0.2	2.3	0.0	0.1
145	Britain Covey thin prior (6 touches)	WR	PHI	@ JAX		0.3	-5.3	0.3	0.2	2.1	0.0	0.2
146	Barion Brown thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NO	vs MIN	Q · 78%	0.3	-5.4	0.3	0.2	1.9	0.0	0.4
147	Reggie Virgil thin prior (0 touches)	WR	ARI	vs DET		0.0	-5.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
148	Tetairoa McMillan	WR	CAR	BYE	BYE	0.0	-5.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
149	Jalen Coker thin prior (35 touches)	WR	CAR	BYE	BYE	0.0	-5.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
150	Brycen Tremayne thin prior (9 touches)	WR	CAR	BYE	BYE	0.0	-5.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
151	John Metchie III thin prior (41 touches)	WR	CAR	BYE	BYE	0.0	-5.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
152	David Moore thin prior (19 touches)	WR	CAR	BYE	BYE	0.0	-5.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
153	Xavier Legette	WR	CAR	BYE	BYE	0.0	-5.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
154	Chris Brazzell II thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CAR	BYE	BYE	0.0	-5.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
155	Anthony Gould thin prior (1 touches)	WR	IND	@ PIT		0.0	-5.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
156	Rashee Rice	WR	KC	BYE	BYE	0.0	-5.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
157	Xavier Worthy	WR	KC	BYE	BYE	0.0	-5.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
158	Jalen Royals thin prior (2 touches)	WR	KC	BYE	BYE	0.0	-5.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
159	Cyrus Allen thin prior (0 touches)	WR	KC	BYE	BYE	0.0	-5.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
160	Nikko Remigio thin prior (2 touches)	WR	KC	BYE	BYE	0.0	-5.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
161	Tyquan Thornton thin prior (26 touches)	WR	KC	BYE	BYE	0.0	-5.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
162	Jeff Caldwell thin prior (0 touches)	WR	KC	BYE	BYE	0.0	-5.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
163	Jimmy Holiday thin prior (0 touches)	WR	KC	BYE	BYE	0.0	-5.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
164	Alex Bachman thin prior (2 touches)	WR	LA	vs BUF		0.0	-5.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
165	Brandon Smith thin prior (0 touches)	WR	PIT	vs IND		0.0	-5.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
166	Brandon Aiyuk thin prior (35 touches)	WR	SF	@ SEA		0.0	-5.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
167	Van Jefferson thin prior (47 touches)	WR	WAS	vs NYG		0.0	-5.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

VORP = this player's points minus the points of the last startable player at his position (hover the VORP cell to see who). Baseline rank = teams × starters, with FLEX split RB/WR/TE 45/45/10.

Known limitations

Thin priors over-projected QBs. Efficiency comes from 2023–25, regressed toward the league average by sample size. Over Weeks 1–4, QB1s whose prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted dropbacks were projected +3.9 PPR a game too high (9 QBs; established QB1s +0.1). Those rows carry a thin prior chip. From Week 7 (model n8-v3) a QB's passing rates also read his own 2026 dropbacks, weighted against the prior's sample plus a fixed anchor, so a few snaps barely move them. On Weeks 5–6 this halved the thin-QB bias. Rushing rates and the game lines still use the prior: the game-level check of the same change failed.
Team pass volume is a 2023–25 prior too; in-season, only player shares blend toward what is observed. Blending team volume in-season was tested twice and lost to the prior both times.