NFL Player Projections

Week 4 — opponent-adjusted (this week's defence, home/away), availability-weighted, byes zeroed. Components (volume × efficiency) with scoring applied as a view. Model n8-v2 · updated 25d ago.

Week: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8• Season Position: All QB RB WR TE

Scoring: PPR Half Standard DK Rank by: VORP Points ⬇ CSV

League & scoring settings — server-side, from your stored component projections; the URL is the saved config

170 players · ranked by VORP under standard scoring, 12-team league (1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1FLEX). thin prior (n) = the efficiency prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted 2023–25 dropbacks (QB) or 55 touches (RB/WR/TE), so the league average carries about half or more of the line's efficiency; ⚠ = low-sample / rookie (archetype-driven). A designation like Q · 60% means the line is weighted by that play probability; BYE rows project 0 and are kept visible.

Replacement level (VORP is measured against these): QB12 Dak Prescott · 17.4 pts · RB29 Braelon Allen · 8.1 pts · WR41 Khalil Shakir · 5.9 pts · TE13 Travis Kelce · 5.3 pts

#	Player	Pos	Tm	Opp	Status	Pts	VORP	Tgt	Rec	RecYd	RecTD	Car
1	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	SEA	vs LAC		11.8	+5.9	9.6	6.7	88.2	0.5	0.2
2	Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	@ CAR		11.4	+5.5	9.4	6.6	79.7	0.6	0.2
3	Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	vs JAX		11.1	+5.2	9.2	6.2	79.1	0.5	0.1
4	Chris Olave	WR	NO	vs ATL		10.1	+4.2	8.8	5.7	73.1	0.5	0.2
5	Nico Collins	WR	HOU	vs DAL		10.0	+4.1	7.4	4.7	73.9	0.4	0.4
6	Puka Nacua	WR	LA	@ PHI		9.8	+3.9	8.7	6.2	74.3	0.4	0.2
7	Jordan Addison	WR	MIN	vs MIA		9.4	+3.5	7.5	4.5	66.0	0.5	0.2
8	Parker Washington	WR	JAX	@ CIN		9.3	+3.4	8.0	5.0	67.3	0.4	0.2
9	CeeDee Lamb	WR	DAL	@ HOU		9.0	+3.1	8.7	5.8	68.4	0.4	0.3
10	Tee Higgins	WR	CIN	vs JAX		8.7	+2.8	6.7	4.1	57.8	0.5	0.1
11	Michael Wilson	WR	ARI	@ NYG		8.6	+2.7	7.8	4.9	61.9	0.4	0.1
12	Jaylen Waddle ⚠	WR	DEN	@ SF		8.5	+2.6	7.6	5.0	63.8	0.3	0.4
13	Christian Watson thin prior (54 touches)	WR	GB	@ TB		8.5	+2.6	6.8	4.1	61.2	0.4	0.2
14	Garrett Wilson	WR	NYJ	@ CHI		8.4	+2.5	8.7	5.4	60.6	0.4	0.2
15	DJ Moore ⚠	WR	BUF	vs NE		8.3	+2.4	7.1	4.6	59.5	0.4	0.3
16	Josh Downs	WR	IND	@ WAS		8.0	+2.1	7.5	5.0	58.3	0.4	0.1
17	Drake London	WR	ATL	@ NO		8.0	+2.1	7.6	4.7	57.8	0.4	0.4
18	Tetairoa McMillan	WR	CAR	vs DET		7.7	+1.8	6.8	4.1	55.4	0.4	0.2
19	Dontayvion Wicks ⚠	WR	PHI	vs LA		7.7	+1.8	7.2	4.4	54.2	0.4	0.2
20	George Pickens	WR	DAL	@ HOU		7.7	+1.8	6.8	4.3	57.7	0.3	0.2
21	Quentin Johnston	WR	LAC	@ SEA		7.7	+1.8	7.1	4.3	52.2	0.4	0.3
22	Luther Burden III thin prior (30 touches)	WR	CHI	vs NYJ		7.6	+1.7	6.0	4.1	58.3	0.3	0.4
23	Emeka Egbuka	WR	TB	vs GB		7.5	+1.6	6.8	3.8	54.4	0.3	0.3
24	Malik Nabers	WR	NYG	vs ARI		7.4	+1.5	6.6	4.1	53.4	0.3	0.2
25	Stefon Diggs ⚠	WR	WAS	vs IND		7.1	+1.2	6.6	4.7	53.5	0.3	0.2
26	Rashee Rice	WR	KC	@ LV		7.1	+1.2	6.4	4.4	50.5	0.3	0.1
27	Denzel Boston thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CLE	vs PIT		7.1	+1.2	7.2	4.0	51.5	0.3	0.2
28	Romeo Doubs ⚠	WR	NE	@ BUF		6.8	+0.9	6.3	4.0	47.8	0.3	0.2
29	Carnell Tate thin prior (0 touches)	WR	TEN	@ BAL		6.8	+0.9	7.5	4.1	49.6	0.3	0.1
30	Jameson Williams	WR	DET	@ CAR		6.7	+0.8	5.1	3.2	49.4	0.3	0.2
31	DK Metcalf	WR	PIT	@ CLE		6.7	+0.8	6.4	3.9	48.9	0.3	0.2
32	Rome Odunze	WR	CHI	vs NYJ		6.6	+0.8	5.7	3.2	47.5	0.3	0.2
33	Rashod Bateman thin prior (52 touches)	WR	BAL	vs TEN		6.5	+0.7	5.2	3.1	45.8	0.3	0.2
34	Devaughn Vele thin prior (36 touches)	WR	NO	vs ATL		6.4	+0.5	5.5	3.6	46.6	0.3	0.2
35	Zay Flowers	WR	BAL	vs TEN	Q · 72%	6.4	+0.5	5.0	3.4	49.1	0.2	0.3
36	KC Concepcion thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CLE	vs PIT		6.3	+0.5	6.5	3.6	46.1	0.3	0.7
37	Malik Washington thin prior (43 touches)	WR	MIA	@ MIN		6.3	+0.4	7.5	5.0	44.9	0.3	0.7
38	Tre Tucker	WR	LV	vs KC		6.3	+0.4	5.9	3.6	45.4	0.3	0.2
39	Courtland Sutton	WR	DEN	@ SF		6.2	+0.3	5.8	3.6	43.3	0.3	0.2
40	Matthew Golden thin prior (22 touches)	WR	GB	@ TB		6.0	+0.1	5.8	3.7	45.2	0.2	0.2
41	Khalil Shakir	WR	BUF	vs NE		5.9	+0.0	5.1	3.7	44.1	0.2	0.2
42	Kalif Raymond thin prior (30 touches)	WR	CHI	vs NYJ		5.8	-0.1	5.0	3.5	43.4	0.2	0.2
43	Jauan Jennings ⚠	WR	MIN	vs MIA		5.8	-0.1	4.7	3.0	39.6	0.3	0.2
44	Jalen Nailor thin prior (40 touches)	WR	LV	vs KC		5.7	-0.2	4.7	2.9	39.7	0.3	0.1
45	Terry McLaurin	WR	WAS	vs IND	Q · 72%	5.6	-0.3	4.6	3.0	40.0	0.3	0.1
46	Deebo Samuel Sr.	WR	SF	vs DEN		5.5	-0.4	5.1	3.4	39.9	0.3	0.9
47	Xavier Hutchinson thin prior (40 touches)	WR	HOU	vs DAL		5.5	-0.4	5.0	3.0	39.6	0.2	0.5
48	Davante Adams	WR	LA	@ PHI		5.4	-0.5	6.2	3.6	35.1	0.3	0.1
49	Mike Evans ⚠	WR	SF	vs DEN	Q · 72%	5.4	-0.5	5.1	3.0	36.8	0.3	0.1
50	Brian Thomas Jr.	WR	JAX	@ CIN		5.4	-0.5	4.7	2.8	40.0	0.2	0.2
51	Ladd McConkey	WR	LAC	@ SEA	Q · 72%	5.2	-0.7	4.9	3.2	37.5	0.2	0.1
52	Malachi Fields thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NYG	vs ARI		5.2	-0.7	5.0	2.8	37.8	0.2	0.2
53	Tre Harris thin prior (22 touches)	WR	LAC	@ SEA		5.1	-0.8	5.2	3.4	37.7	0.2	0.2
54	Chris Godwin Jr.	WR	TB	vs GB		5.1	-0.8	4.6	3.1	37.6	0.2	0.5
55	Laquon Treadwell thin prior (1 touches)	WR	IND	@ WAS		5.1	-0.8	4.7	2.9	36.9	0.2	0.2
56	Xavier Worthy	WR	KC	@ LV		5.0	-0.9	5.1	3.1	36.7	0.2	0.2
57	Jakobi Meyers	WR	JAX	@ CIN		5.0	-0.9	4.8	3.2	37.2	0.2	0.3
58	Wan'Dale Robinson ⚠	WR	TEN	@ BAL		5.0	-0.9	5.7	3.8	37.4	0.2	0.1
59	DeMario Douglas	WR	NE	@ BUF		4.9	-1.0	4.9	3.3	36.7	0.2	0.2
60	Rashid Shaheed	WR	SEA	vs LAC		4.7	-1.2	4.4	2.7	35.2	0.2	0.3
61	Jalen Coker thin prior (35 touches)	WR	CAR	vs DET	Q · 72%	4.7	-1.2	4.0	2.7	34.5	0.2	0.1
62	Ryan Flournoy thin prior (32 touches)	WR	DAL	@ HOU		4.7	-1.2	4.6	3.0	33.6	0.2	0.2
63	Jahan Dotson thin prior (44 touches)	WR	ATL	@ NO		4.5	-1.4	4.8	2.8	33.2	0.2	0.2
64	Makai Lemon thin prior (0 touches)	WR	PHI	vs LA		4.5	-1.4	4.6	2.6	32.5	0.2	0.3
65	Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	ARI	@ NYG		4.3	-1.5	4.0	2.3	31.0	0.2	0.1
66	Michael Pittman ⚠	WR	PIT	@ CLE		4.3	-1.6	4.7	3.2	31.4	0.2	0.2
67	Isaiah Williams thin prior (19 touches)	WR	NYJ	@ CHI		4.2	-1.7	4.4	2.9	31.1	0.2	0.4
68	Chris Bell thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIA	@ MIN		4.2	-1.7	5.0	2.7	30.7	0.2	0.2
69	Kayshon Boutte thin prior (45 touches)	WR	HOU	vs DAL		4.0	-1.9	3.0	1.9	28.7	0.2	0.1
70	Ted Hurst III thin prior (0 touches)	WR	TB	vs GB		4.0	-1.9	4.0	2.2	29.1	0.2	0.2
71	Tai Felton thin prior (2 touches)	WR	MIN	vs MIA		4.0	-1.9	3.4	2.2	28.8	0.2	0.2
72	Mack Hollins thin prior (54 touches)	WR	NE	@ BUF		3.9	-2.0	4.2	2.7	28.7	0.2	0.2
73	Kendrick Bourne thin prior (49 touches)	WR	ARI	@ NYG		3.9	-2.0	3.8	2.5	29.9	0.1	0.1
74	Jerry Jeudy	WR	CLE	vs PIT		3.9	-2.0	3.9	2.3	29.8	0.1	0.2
75	Devontez Walker thin prior (5 touches)	WR	BAL	vs TEN		3.8	-2.1	2.8	1.8	26.7	0.2	0.2
76	Roman Wilson thin prior (10 touches)	WR	PIT	@ CLE		3.8	-2.1	3.8	2.4	27.1	0.2	0.2
77	Brycen Tremayne thin prior (9 touches)	WR	CAR	vs DET		3.8	-2.1	3.4	2.3	28.1	0.2	0.2
78	Antonio Williams thin prior (0 touches)	WR	WAS	vs IND		3.7	-2.2	3.6	2.0	27.0	0.2	0.2
79	Brandin Cooks thin prior (50 touches)	WR	SF	vs DEN		3.7	-2.2	3.9	2.4	26.3	0.2	0.3
80	Keon Coleman thin prior (47 touches)	WR	BUF	vs NE		3.5	-2.4	3.0	1.9	25.0	0.2	0.2
81	Darnell Mooney ⚠	WR	NYG	vs ARI		3.5	-2.4	3.2	1.8	26.3	0.1	0.3
82	Isaac TeSlaa thin prior (14 touches)	WR	DET	@ CAR		3.5	-2.4	2.9	1.8	23.3	0.2	0.2
83	Cody White thin prior (3 touches)	WR	LV	vs KC		3.3	-2.6	2.8	1.8	24.1	0.1	0.1
84	Skyy Moore thin prior (12 touches)	WR	GB	@ TB		3.2	-2.6	3.1	1.9	24.0	0.1	0.2
85	Dohnte Meyers thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CIN	vs JAX		3.2	-2.7	3.2	1.8	23.3	0.1	0.3
86	Bryce Lance thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NO	vs ATL		3.1	-2.8	3.1	1.7	22.8	0.1	0.2
87	Pat Bryant thin prior (24 touches)	WR	DEN	@ SF		3.0	-2.9	3.0	1.9	22.5	0.1	0.4
88	Cooper Kupp	WR	SEA	vs LAC		3.0	-2.9	3.1	2.0	21.9	0.1	0.2
89	Kevin Coleman Jr. thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIA	@ MIN		2.9	-3.0	3.4	1.9	21.2	0.1	0.2
90	Malik McClain thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NYJ	@ CHI		2.9	-3.0	3.1	1.7	20.8	0.1	0.3
91	Elic Ayomanor thin prior (44 touches)	WR	TEN	@ BAL		2.8	-3.1	3.1	1.7	20.0	0.1	0.1
92	Keenan Allen ⚠	WR	IND	@ WAS	Q · 50%	2.7	-3.2	3.1	2.0	19.4	0.1	0.1
93	Olamide Zaccheaus ⚠	WR	ATL	@ NO		2.7	-3.2	2.9	1.8	19.2	0.1	0.2
94	Jalen Royals thin prior (2 touches)	WR	KC	@ LV		2.6	-3.3	2.5	1.6	18.6	0.1	0.1
95	Jordan Whittington thin prior (21 touches)	WR	LA	@ PHI		2.6	-3.3	2.7	1.8	19.4	0.1	0.2
96	Darius Cooper thin prior (6 touches)	WR	PHI	vs LA		2.5	-3.4	2.3	1.5	18.5	0.1	0.2
97	John Metchie III thin prior (41 touches)	WR	CAR	vs DET		2.3	-3.6	2.3	1.5	16.8	0.1	0.2
98	Tez Johnson thin prior (22 touches)	WR	TB	vs GB		2.3	-3.6	1.9	1.2	15.6	0.1	0.3
99	Ashton Dulin thin prior (7 touches)	WR	IND	@ WAS	Q · 78%	2.2	-3.7	1.9	1.2	16.3	0.1	0.2
100	Jaylin Noel thin prior (18 touches)	WR	HOU	vs DAL		2.2	-3.7	1.9	1.2	16.1	0.1	0.5
101	Konata Mumpfield thin prior (12 touches)	WR	LA	@ PHI		2.0	-3.9	2.2	1.3	14.4	0.1	0.1
102	Jared Wayne thin prior (1 touches)	WR	HOU	vs DAL		2.0	-3.9	1.7	1.1	14.8	0.1	0.1
103	LaJohntay Wester thin prior (0 touches)	WR	BAL	vs TEN		2.0	-3.9	1.6	1.0	14.3	0.1	0.2
104	Josh Palmer thin prior (50 touches)	WR	BUF	vs NE		2.0	-3.9	1.8	1.1	15.3	0.1	0.2
105	Germie Bernard thin prior (0 touches)	WR	PIT	@ CLE		1.9	-4.0	2.3	1.3	14.1	0.1	0.2
106	Dyami Brown thin prior (35 touches)	WR	WAS	vs IND		1.9	-4.0	1.7	1.1	13.8	0.1	0.2
107	Tory Horton thin prior (11 touches)	WR	SEA	vs LAC		1.8	-4.1	1.5	1.0	12.0	0.1	0.2
108	Mitchell Tinsley thin prior (12 touches)	WR	CIN	vs JAX		1.8	-4.1	1.6	0.9	12.4	0.1	0.2
109	Calvin Ridley	WR	TEN	@ BAL		1.8	-4.1	1.9	1.1	13.2	0.1	0.2
110	Kyle Williams thin prior (10 touches)	WR	NE	@ BUF		1.7	-4.2	1.6	1.0	12.3	0.1	0.2
111	Troy Franklin	WR	DEN	@ SF		1.7	-4.2	1.7	1.1	11.7	0.1	0.4
112	Marquez Valdes-Scantling thin prior (36 touches)	WR	LAC	@ SEA		1.6	-4.2	1.9	1.0	11.7	0.1	0.2
113	Kevin Austin Jr. thin prior (18 touches)	WR	NO	vs ATL		1.6	-4.2	1.5	0.9	12.0	0.1	0.3
114	Josh Cameron thin prior (0 touches)	WR	JAX	@ CIN		1.6	-4.3	1.7	0.9	11.9	0.1	0.2
115	Treylon Burks thin prior (19 touches)	WR	WAS	vs IND		1.6	-4.3	1.5	0.9	11.9	0.1	0.2
116	KaVontae Turpin thin prior (38 touches)	WR	DAL	@ HOU		1.6	-4.3	1.6	1.0	11.7	0.1	0.6
117	Marvin Mims Jr. thin prior (48 touches)	WR	DEN	@ SF		1.6	-4.3	1.5	1.0	11.4	0.1	0.3
118	Jalen Tolbert thin prior (48 touches)	WR	MIA	@ MIN		1.6	-4.3	1.6	1.0	11.0	0.1	0.3
119	Jacob Cowing thin prior (2 touches)	WR	SF	vs DEN		1.5	-4.4	1.4	0.9	11.1	0.1	0.2
120	Cyrus Allen thin prior (0 touches)	WR	KC	@ LV		1.5	-4.4	1.6	0.9	10.7	0.1	0.2
121	Zachariah Branch thin prior (0 touches)	WR	ATL	@ NO		1.4	-4.5	1.5	0.9	10.2	0.1	0.2
122	Isaiah Bond thin prior (22 touches)	WR	CLE	vs PIT		1.4	-4.5	1.4	0.8	10.5	0.1	0.2
123	Elijah Moore ⚠	WR	PHI	vs LA		1.4	-4.5	1.5	0.9	10.5	0.1	0.3
124	Myles Price thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIN	vs MIA		1.4	-4.5	1.2	0.7	9.9	0.1	0.2
125	Tutu Atwell thin prior (40 touches)	WR	LA	@ PHI		1.3	-4.6	1.3	0.8	10.1	0.1	0.2
126	Zavion Thomas thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CHI	vs NYJ		1.3	-4.6	1.2	0.7	9.4	0.1	0.2
127	Jamaal Pritchett thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NYJ	@ CHI		1.3	-4.6	1.4	0.8	9.4	0.1	0.3
128	Bo Melton ⚠	WR	GB	@ TB		1.2	-4.7	1.2	0.7	9.0	0.1	0.2
129	Jalen Brooks thin prior (13 touches)	WR	ARI	@ NYG		1.2	-4.7	1.2	0.7	9.0	0.1	0.1
130	Deion Burks thin prior (0 touches)	WR	IND	@ WAS		1.2	-4.7	1.2	0.7	8.9	0.1	0.6
131	Tyquan Thornton thin prior (26 touches)	WR	KC	@ LV		1.2	-4.7	1.1	0.6	8.9	0.1	0.0
132	Jordan Watkins thin prior (2 touches)	WR	SF	vs DEN		1.2	-4.7	1.1	0.7	8.8	0.1	0.2
133	David Moore thin prior (19 touches)	WR	CAR	vs DET		1.2	-4.7	1.2	0.7	8.5	0.1	0.2
134	Dareke Young thin prior (2 touches)	WR	LV	vs KC		1.1	-4.8	1.0	0.6	8.3	0.1	0.1
135	Ryan Miller thin prior (8 touches)	WR	MIA	@ MIN		1.1	-4.8	1.2	0.7	8.0	0.1	0.2
136	Efton Chism III thin prior (2 touches)	WR	NE	@ BUF		1.1	-4.8	1.0	0.6	7.7	0.0	0.2
137	Tom Kennedy thin prior (2 touches)	WR	DET	@ CAR		0.9	-5.0	0.9	0.6	6.7	0.0	0.2
138	Braxton Berrios thin prior (12 touches)	WR	NYG	vs ARI		0.9	-5.0	0.9	0.6	6.7	0.0	0.2
139	Jahdae Walker thin prior (5 touches)	WR	CHI	vs NYJ		0.9	-5.0	0.7	0.5	6.4	0.0	0.3
140	Malik Benson thin prior (0 touches)	WR	LV	vs KC		0.9	-5.0	0.9	0.5	6.6	0.0	0.2
141	Chris Blair thin prior (1 touches)	WR	ATL	@ NO		0.9	-5.0	0.9	0.5	6.5	0.0	0.2
142	Chimere Dike thin prior (37 touches)	WR	TEN	@ BAL		0.8	-5.0	0.9	0.6	5.9	0.0	0.1
143	Derius Davis thin prior (10 touches)	WR	LAC	@ SEA		0.8	-5.1	0.8	0.6	5.8	0.0	0.2
144	Jeshaun Jones thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIN	vs MIA		0.8	-5.1	0.7	0.4	5.7	0.0	0.3
145	J. Michael Sturdivant thin prior (0 touches)	WR	GB	@ TB		0.7	-5.2	0.8	0.4	5.3	0.0	0.2
146	Travis Hunter ⚠	WR	JAX	@ CIN		0.7	-5.2	0.6	0.4	5.2	0.0	0.3
147	Charlie Jones thin prior (3 touches)	WR	NYG	vs ARI		0.7	-5.2	0.6	0.4	5.1	0.0	0.3
148	Elijah Sarratt thin prior (0 touches)	WR	BAL	vs TEN		0.7	-5.2	0.6	0.3	4.8	0.0	0.3
149	Ben Skowronek thin prior (7 touches)	WR	PIT	@ CLE		0.7	-5.2	0.7	0.4	4.9	0.0	0.2
150	Jonathan Mingo thin prior (32 touches)	WR	DAL	@ HOU		0.7	-5.2	0.8	0.4	4.8	0.0	0.2
151	Sterling Shepard thin prior (46 touches)	WR	NYJ	@ CHI		0.6	-5.2	0.7	0.5	4.7	0.0	0.3
152	Barion Brown thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NO	vs ATL		0.5	-5.4	0.5	0.3	3.4	0.0	0.4
153	Montorie Foster Jr thin prior (0 touches)	WR	SEA	vs LAC		0.5	-5.4	0.5	0.3	3.4	0.0	0.2
154	Tay Martin thin prior (2 touches)	WR	DET	@ CAR		0.5	-5.4	0.4	0.3	3.4	0.0	0.2
155	Simi Fehoko thin prior (5 touches)	WR	ARI	@ NYG		0.5	-5.4	0.4	0.3	3.3	0.0	0.1
156	Kameron Johnson thin prior (4 touches)	WR	TB	vs GB		0.4	-5.5	0.4	0.2	3.2	0.0	0.2
157	Nikko Remigio thin prior (2 touches)	WR	KC	@ LV		0.4	-5.5	0.4	0.2	2.9	0.0	0.1
158	Greg Dortch thin prior (40 touches)	WR	BUF	vs NE		0.4	-5.5	0.3	0.2	2.5	0.0	0.2
159	Malachi Corley thin prior (9 touches)	WR	CLE	vs PIT		0.4	-5.5	0.3	0.2	2.6	0.0	0.2
160	Britain Covey thin prior (6 touches)	WR	PHI	vs LA		0.4	-5.5	0.3	0.2	2.6	0.0	0.2
161	Jaylin Lane thin prior (16 touches)	WR	WAS	vs IND		0.3	-5.6	0.3	0.2	2.4	0.0	0.0
162	Devin Duvernay thin prior (9 touches)	WR	ARI	@ NYG		0.0	-5.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
163	Ja'Seem Reed thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CAR	vs DET		0.0	-5.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
164	Anthony Gould thin prior (1 touches)	WR	IND	@ WAS		0.0	-5.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
165	Nick Westbrook-Ikhine thin prior (37 touches)	WR	IND	@ WAS		0.0	-5.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
166	CJ Daniels thin prior (0 touches)	WR	LA	@ PHI		0.0	-5.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
167	Alex Bachman thin prior (2 touches)	WR	LA	@ PHI		0.0	-5.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
168	Kaden Wetjen thin prior (0 touches)	WR	PIT	@ CLE		0.0	-5.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
169	Malik Turner thin prior (0 touches)	WR	SF	vs DEN		0.0	-5.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
170	Brandon Aiyuk thin prior (35 touches)	WR	SF	vs DEN		0.0	-5.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

VORP = this player's points minus the points of the last startable player at his position (hover the VORP cell to see who). Baseline rank = teams × starters, with FLEX split RB/WR/TE 45/45/10.

Known limitations

Thin priors over-projected QBs. Efficiency comes from 2023–25, regressed toward the league average by sample size. Over Weeks 1–4, QB1s whose prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted dropbacks were projected +3.9 PPR a game too high (9 QBs; established QB1s +0.1). Those rows carry a thin prior chip. From Week 7 (model n8-v3) a QB's passing rates also read his own 2026 dropbacks, weighted against the prior's sample plus a fixed anchor, so a few snaps barely move them. On Weeks 5–6 this halved the thin-QB bias. Rushing rates and the game lines still use the prior: the game-level check of the same change failed.
Team pass volume is a 2023–25 prior too; in-season, only player shares blend toward what is observed. Blending team volume in-season was tested twice and lost to the prior both times.