NFL Player Projections

Week 3 — opponent-adjusted (this week's defence, home/away), availability-weighted, byes zeroed. Components (volume × efficiency) with scoring applied as a view. Model n8-v2 · updated 32d ago.

Week: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8• Season Position: All QB RB WR TE

Scoring: PPR Half Standard DK Rank by: VORP Points ⬇ CSV

League & scoring settings — server-side, from your stored component projections; the URL is the saved config

170 players · ranked by VORP under standard scoring, 12-team league (1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1FLEX). thin prior (n) = the efficiency prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted 2023–25 dropbacks (QB) or 55 touches (RB/WR/TE), so the league average carries about half or more of the line's efficiency; ⚠ = low-sample / rookie (archetype-driven). A designation like Q · 60% means the line is weighted by that play probability; BYE rows project 0 and are kept visible.

Replacement level (VORP is measured against these): QB12 Baker Mayfield · 17.7 pts · RB29 Jeremiyah Love · 8.2 pts · WR41 Mike Evans · 6.0 pts · TE13 Tyler Warren · 4.9 pts

#	Player	Pos	Tm	Opp	Status	Pts	VORP	Tgt	Rec	RecYd	RecTD	Car
1	Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	vs NYJ		12.6	+6.6	9.6	6.7	88.3	0.6	0.2
2	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	SEA	@ WAS		12.4	+6.3	9.7	6.8	92.6	0.5	0.2
3	CeeDee Lamb	WR	DAL	vs BAL		11.1	+5.0	9.6	6.4	84.5	0.4	0.6
4	Parker Washington	WR	JAX	vs NE		10.1	+4.0	8.5	5.3	73.1	0.5	0.2
5	Christian Watson thin prior (54 touches)	WR	GB	vs ATL		9.7	+3.6	7.1	4.3	70.0	0.5	0.2
6	Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	@ PIT		9.5	+3.5	8.6	5.8	67.7	0.5	0.2
7	Jaylen Waddle ⚠	WR	DEN	vs LA		9.2	+3.2	7.9	5.2	69.3	0.4	0.2
8	Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	@ TB		9.2	+3.1	8.5	5.4	70.5	0.4	0.2
9	DeVonta Smith	WR	PHI	@ CHI		9.0	+3.0	7.8	5.4	66.4	0.4	0.2
10	Chris Olave	WR	NO	vs LV		8.7	+2.6	7.6	4.9	63.2	0.4	0.1
11	DK Metcalf	WR	PIT	vs CIN		8.4	+2.4	6.5	3.9	61.5	0.4	0.2
12	George Pickens	WR	DAL	vs BAL		8.3	+2.3	6.6	4.2	62.9	0.3	0.3
13	Denzel Boston thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CLE	vs CAR		8.2	+2.2	8.0	4.4	59.9	0.4	0.2
14	Tee Higgins	WR	CIN	@ PIT		7.9	+1.8	6.6	4.1	52.3	0.4	0.2
15	Ladd McConkey	WR	LAC	@ BUF		7.8	+1.8	7.2	4.7	56.5	0.4	0.2
16	Michael Wilson	WR	ARI	@ SF		7.6	+1.5	7.0	4.4	54.7	0.4	0.1
17	Romeo Doubs ⚠	WR	NE	@ JAX		7.5	+1.5	6.8	4.3	52.8	0.4	0.2
18	Jameson Williams	WR	DET	vs NYJ		7.5	+1.5	5.3	3.3	55.5	0.3	0.2
19	Tetairoa McMillan	WR	CAR	@ CLE		7.4	+1.4	7.5	4.5	53.8	0.3	0.2
20	Drake London	WR	ATL	@ GB		7.3	+1.3	6.8	4.2	53.1	0.3	0.5
21	Malik Nabers	WR	NYG	vs TEN		7.3	+1.2	6.4	4.0	52.7	0.3	0.2
22	Garrett Wilson	WR	NYJ	@ DET		7.3	+1.2	7.7	4.8	52.3	0.3	0.2
23	Terry McLaurin	WR	WAS	vs SEA		7.3	+1.2	6.4	4.1	51.9	0.3	0.2
24	Josh Downs	WR	IND	vs HOU		7.2	+1.2	7.3	4.8	52.6	0.3	0.2
25	Deebo Samuel Sr.	WR	SF	vs ARI		7.2	+1.1	6.1	4.1	52.1	0.3	0.7
26	Davante Adams	WR	LA	@ DEN		7.2	+1.1	8.1	4.8	46.4	0.4	0.2
27	Khalil Shakir	WR	BUF	vs LAC		7.1	+1.1	6.5	4.6	53.1	0.3	0.2
28	Carnell Tate thin prior (0 touches)	WR	TEN	@ NYG		7.0	+0.9	7.4	4.1	50.7	0.3	0.2
29	Quentin Johnston	WR	LAC	@ BUF		6.9	+0.9	6.3	3.8	47.4	0.4	0.3
30	Xavier Hutchinson thin prior (40 touches)	WR	HOU	@ IND		6.7	+0.6	6.6	4.0	48.5	0.3	0.2
31	Malik Washington thin prior (43 touches)	WR	MIA	vs KC		6.6	+0.6	6.9	4.6	47.1	0.3	0.4
32	Rashee Rice	WR	KC	@ MIA		6.6	+0.6	5.8	3.9	46.9	0.3	0.1
33	Matthew Golden thin prior (22 touches)	WR	GB	vs ATL		6.4	+0.3	5.8	3.7	48.6	0.3	0.2
34	Emeka Egbuka	WR	TB	vs MIN		6.4	+0.3	6.3	3.5	46.1	0.3	0.4
35	Courtland Sutton	WR	DEN	vs LA		6.4	+0.3	5.8	3.6	44.7	0.3	0.2
36	Brian Thomas Jr.	WR	JAX	vs NE		6.3	+0.3	5.4	3.2	46.9	0.3	0.2
37	KC Concepcion thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CLE	vs CAR		6.3	+0.2	6.1	3.4	45.7	0.3	0.9
38	Kayshon Boutte thin prior (45 touches)	WR	HOU	@ IND		6.2	+0.1	5.0	3.2	44.3	0.3	0.2
39	Tre Tucker	WR	LV	@ NO		6.1	+0.1	6.1	3.7	44.1	0.3	0.2
40	Luther Burden III thin prior (30 touches)	WR	CHI	vs PHI		6.1	+0.0	5.3	3.7	46.3	0.2	0.4
41	Mike Evans ⚠	WR	SF	vs ARI	Q · 72%	6.0	+0.0	5.2	3.1	41.2	0.3	0.1
42	Rome Odunze	WR	CHI	vs PHI		6.0	-0.1	5.8	3.2	42.9	0.3	0.2
43	Stefon Diggs ⚠	WR	WAS	vs SEA		5.9	-0.1	5.8	4.2	44.3	0.2	0.2
44	Devaughn Vele thin prior (36 touches)	WR	NO	vs LV		5.9	-0.2	5.1	3.3	42.6	0.3	0.1
45	Rashod Bateman thin prior (52 touches)	WR	BAL	@ DAL		5.8	-0.3	5.1	3.0	40.4	0.3	0.2
46	Malachi Fields thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NYG	vs TEN		5.6	-0.4	5.3	3.0	40.9	0.3	0.2
47	Zay Flowers	WR	BAL	@ DAL	Q · 72%	5.6	-0.5	4.8	3.2	43.0	0.2	0.2
48	Jordan Addison	WR	MIN	@ TB		5.6	-0.5	5.0	3.0	39.3	0.3	0.2
49	Jalen Nailor thin prior (40 touches)	WR	LV	@ NO		5.6	-0.5	5.0	3.0	38.8	0.3	0.2
50	Rashid Shaheed	WR	SEA	@ WAS		5.5	-0.6	4.9	3.0	40.9	0.2	0.3
51	Xavier Worthy	WR	KC	@ MIA		5.4	-0.6	5.4	3.3	39.9	0.2	0.2
52	DJ Moore ⚠	WR	BUF	vs LAC	Q · 72%	5.2	-0.8	4.7	3.0	37.6	0.2	0.3
53	Dontayvion Wicks ⚠	WR	PHI	@ CHI		5.2	-0.8	5.1	3.1	36.8	0.3	0.2
54	Roman Wilson thin prior (10 touches)	WR	PIT	vs CIN		5.2	-0.9	4.2	2.6	36.8	0.2	0.2
55	DeMario Douglas	WR	NE	@ JAX		5.1	-0.9	4.9	3.3	38.0	0.2	0.2
56	Kalif Raymond thin prior (30 touches)	WR	CHI	vs PHI		5.0	-1.0	4.9	3.4	37.7	0.2	0.2
57	Ryan Flournoy thin prior (32 touches)	WR	DAL	vs BAL		5.0	-1.1	4.4	2.9	35.9	0.2	0.3
58	Keenan Allen ⚠	WR	IND	vs HOU		4.9	-1.2	6.0	3.9	35.2	0.2	0.2
59	Jahan Dotson thin prior (44 touches)	WR	ATL	@ GB		4.8	-1.2	4.9	2.9	35.5	0.2	0.2
60	Jordan Whittington thin prior (21 touches)	WR	LA	@ DEN		4.7	-1.4	4.8	3.2	35.3	0.2	0.2
61	Chris Godwin Jr.	WR	TB	vs MIN		4.6	-1.4	4.6	3.1	34.3	0.2	0.6
62	Jalen Coker thin prior (35 touches)	WR	CAR	@ CLE	Q · 72%	4.6	-1.5	4.4	3.0	33.8	0.2	0.1
63	Isaiah Williams thin prior (19 touches)	WR	NYJ	@ DET		4.3	-1.7	4.7	3.1	32.0	0.2	0.3
64	Wan'Dale Robinson ⚠	WR	TEN	@ NYG		4.3	-1.7	4.8	3.2	32.9	0.2	0.2
65	Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	ARI	@ SF		4.3	-1.7	4.0	2.3	30.7	0.2	0.1
66	Kendrick Bourne thin prior (49 touches)	WR	ARI	@ SF		4.3	-1.8	4.3	2.8	33.2	0.2	0.1
67	Jakobi Meyers	WR	JAX	vs NE		4.2	-1.8	3.9	2.6	31.5	0.2	0.4
68	Chris Bell thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIA	vs KC		4.2	-1.9	4.3	2.4	30.6	0.2	0.2
69	Jerry Jeudy	WR	CLE	vs CAR		4.2	-1.9	4.0	2.3	32.3	0.2	0.2
70	Tre Harris thin prior (22 touches)	WR	LAC	@ BUF		4.2	-1.9	4.2	2.7	30.7	0.2	0.2
71	Michael Pittman ⚠	WR	PIT	vs CIN	Q · 72%	3.8	-2.2	3.4	2.3	27.7	0.2	0.2
72	Isaac TeSlaa thin prior (14 touches)	WR	DET	vs NYJ		3.8	-2.3	2.8	1.8	25.2	0.2	0.2
73	Devontez Walker thin prior (5 touches)	WR	BAL	@ DAL		3.6	-2.5	3.0	1.9	25.2	0.2	0.3
74	Jalen McMillan thin prior (25 touches)	WR	TB	vs MIN		3.5	-2.5	3.2	2.0	25.0	0.2	0.3
75	Pat Bryant thin prior (24 touches)	WR	DEN	vs LA		3.4	-2.6	3.3	2.1	25.6	0.1	0.4
76	Darnell Mooney ⚠	WR	NYG	vs TEN		3.4	-2.6	3.1	1.7	26.0	0.1	0.2
77	Tyquan Thornton thin prior (26 touches)	WR	KC	@ MIA		3.4	-2.6	2.9	1.7	25.1	0.1	0.2
78	Jaylin Noel thin prior (18 touches)	WR	HOU	@ IND		3.4	-2.7	3.1	2.0	24.6	0.2	0.3
79	Malik McClain thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NYJ	@ DET		3.3	-2.8	3.6	2.0	24.0	0.1	0.2
80	Skyy Moore thin prior (12 touches)	WR	GB	vs ATL		3.3	-2.8	2.9	1.8	24.2	0.1	0.2
81	Mack Hollins thin prior (54 touches)	WR	NE	@ JAX		3.2	-2.9	3.3	2.2	23.5	0.1	0.2
82	Laquon Treadwell thin prior (1 touches)	WR	IND	vs HOU		3.2	-2.9	3.2	2.0	23.2	0.1	0.2
83	Jacob Cowing thin prior (2 touches)	WR	SF	vs ARI		3.1	-2.9	2.6	1.7	23.0	0.1	0.2
84	Kevin Coleman Jr. thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIA	vs KC		3.1	-3.0	3.2	1.8	22.4	0.1	0.2
85	Brycen Tremayne thin prior (9 touches)	WR	CAR	@ CLE		3.1	-3.0	3.2	2.1	22.8	0.1	0.2
86	Antonio Williams thin prior (0 touches)	WR	WAS	vs SEA		3.1	-3.0	3.2	1.8	22.3	0.1	0.2
87	Josh Palmer thin prior (50 touches)	WR	BUF	vs LAC		3.0	-3.0	2.8	1.8	23.8	0.1	0.2
88	Jauan Jennings ⚠	WR	MIN	@ TB		3.0	-3.0	2.7	1.7	20.9	0.2	0.2
89	Germie Bernard thin prior (0 touches)	WR	PIT	vs CIN		3.0	-3.0	2.9	1.6	22.2	0.1	0.3
90	Keon Coleman thin prior (47 touches)	WR	BUF	vs LAC	Q · 72%	3.0	-3.0	2.7	1.7	21.4	0.1	0.2
91	Jack Bech thin prior (14 touches)	WR	LV	@ NO		3.0	-3.1	3.0	1.9	22.2	0.1	0.2
92	Cooper Kupp	WR	SEA	@ WAS		3.0	-3.1	2.9	1.9	21.7	0.1	0.2
93	Calvin Ridley	WR	TEN	@ NYG		3.0	-3.1	3.1	1.8	22.2	0.1	0.2
94	Colbie Young thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CIN	@ PIT		2.9	-3.1	3.2	1.8	21.3	0.1	0.2
95	Bryce Lance thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NO	vs LV		2.9	-3.2	2.8	1.6	21.0	0.1	0.1
96	Konata Mumpfield thin prior (12 touches)	WR	LA	@ DEN		2.9	-3.2	3.0	1.8	20.4	0.1	0.2
97	Olamide Zaccheaus ⚠	WR	ATL	@ GB		2.8	-3.2	3.0	1.9	20.2	0.1	0.2
98	Makai Lemon thin prior (0 touches)	WR	PHI	@ CHI		2.7	-3.3	2.9	1.6	19.7	0.1	0.4
99	Ted Hurst III thin prior (0 touches)	WR	TB	vs MIN		2.5	-3.5	2.8	1.5	18.5	0.1	0.2
100	Elic Ayomanor thin prior (44 touches)	WR	TEN	@ NYG		2.4	-3.7	2.5	1.4	16.7	0.1	0.2
101	Jared Wayne thin prior (1 touches)	WR	HOU	@ IND		2.3	-3.7	2.1	1.4	16.9	0.1	0.2
102	Troy Franklin	WR	DEN	vs LA		2.3	-3.8	2.3	1.4	15.9	0.1	0.4
103	Dyami Brown thin prior (35 touches)	WR	WAS	vs SEA		2.2	-3.9	2.1	1.3	15.9	0.1	0.2
104	Jordan Watkins thin prior (2 touches)	WR	SF	vs ARI		2.1	-3.9	1.8	1.1	15.5	0.1	0.3
105	Chris Moore thin prior (18 touches)	WR	BAL	@ DAL		2.0	-4.0	2.0	1.2	15.2	0.1	0.2
106	KaVontae Turpin thin prior (38 touches)	WR	DAL	vs BAL		1.8	-4.2	1.6	1.0	13.4	0.1	0.8
107	Jalen Tolbert thin prior (48 touches)	WR	MIA	vs KC		1.7	-4.4	1.6	0.9	11.8	0.1	0.3
108	Tory Horton thin prior (11 touches)	WR	SEA	@ WAS		1.7	-4.4	1.4	0.9	11.3	0.1	0.2
109	John Metchie III thin prior (41 touches)	WR	CAR	@ CLE		1.6	-4.4	1.9	1.2	11.9	0.1	0.2
110	Marquez Valdes-Scantling thin prior (36 touches)	WR	LAC	@ BUF		1.6	-4.4	1.8	1.0	11.6	0.1	0.3
111	Josh Cameron thin prior (0 touches)	WR	JAX	vs NE		1.6	-4.5	1.6	0.9	11.4	0.1	0.2
112	Tutu Atwell thin prior (40 touches)	WR	LA	@ DEN		1.6	-4.5	1.5	0.9	11.8	0.1	0.2
113	Cyrus Allen thin prior (0 touches)	WR	KC	@ MIA		1.5	-4.5	1.6	0.9	11.1	0.1	0.2
114	Isaiah Bond thin prior (22 touches)	WR	CLE	vs CAR		1.5	-4.5	1.4	0.8	11.4	0.1	0.2
115	Jamaal Pritchett thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NYJ	@ DET		1.5	-4.5	1.7	0.9	10.9	0.1	0.2
116	Bo Melton ⚠	WR	GB	vs ATL		1.5	-4.6	1.3	0.8	10.8	0.1	0.2
117	Kyle Williams thin prior (10 touches)	WR	NE	@ JAX		1.5	-4.6	1.3	0.8	10.6	0.1	0.2
118	Darius Cooper thin prior (6 touches)	WR	PHI	@ CHI		1.5	-4.6	1.4	0.9	10.8	0.1	0.2
119	Tez Johnson thin prior (22 touches)	WR	TB	vs MIN		1.5	-4.6	1.4	0.9	10.1	0.1	0.4
120	Kevin Austin Jr. thin prior (18 touches)	WR	NO	vs LV		1.5	-4.6	1.3	0.8	10.6	0.1	0.2
121	Tai Felton thin prior (2 touches)	WR	MIN	@ TB		1.4	-4.6	1.4	0.9	10.6	0.1	0.3
122	Xavier Smith thin prior (13 touches)	WR	LA	@ DEN		1.4	-4.6	1.3	0.9	10.8	0.1	0.2
123	Malik Benson thin prior (0 touches)	WR	LV	@ NO		1.4	-4.7	1.5	0.8	10.0	0.1	0.3
124	Dohnte Meyers thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CIN	@ PIT		1.4	-4.7	1.5	0.8	9.8	0.1	0.3
125	Zachariah Branch thin prior (0 touches)	WR	ATL	@ GB		1.3	-4.8	1.4	0.8	9.4	0.1	0.2
126	LaJohntay Wester thin prior (0 touches)	WR	BAL	@ DAL		1.3	-4.8	1.2	0.7	9.3	0.1	0.2
127	Jalen Brooks thin prior (13 touches)	WR	ARI	@ SF		1.3	-4.8	1.2	0.7	9.3	0.1	0.2
128	Deion Burks thin prior (0 touches)	WR	IND	vs HOU		1.2	-4.8	1.3	0.7	9.1	0.1	0.5
129	Zavion Thomas thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CHI	vs PHI		1.2	-4.8	1.3	0.7	8.8	0.1	0.3
130	Tom Kennedy thin prior (2 touches)	WR	DET	vs NYJ		1.2	-4.9	1.0	0.6	8.5	0.1	0.2
131	Braxton Berrios thin prior (12 touches)	WR	NYG	vs TEN		1.1	-5.0	1.0	0.7	8.0	0.0	0.2
132	Chris Blair thin prior (1 touches)	WR	ATL	@ GB		1.1	-5.0	1.0	0.6	7.7	0.0	0.2
133	David Moore thin prior (19 touches)	WR	CAR	@ CLE		1.0	-5.1	1.1	0.7	6.9	0.0	0.3
134	Ben Skowronek thin prior (7 touches)	WR	PIT	vs CIN		0.9	-5.1	0.7	0.5	6.6	0.0	0.3
135	Derius Davis thin prior (10 touches)	WR	LAC	@ BUF		0.9	-5.2	0.9	0.6	6.3	0.0	0.2
136	Travis Hunter ⚠	WR	JAX	vs NE		0.9	-5.2	0.8	0.5	6.3	0.0	0.4
137	Chimere Dike thin prior (37 touches)	WR	TEN	@ NYG		0.9	-5.2	0.9	0.6	6.1	0.0	0.2
138	Efton Chism III thin prior (2 touches)	WR	NE	@ JAX		0.8	-5.2	0.8	0.5	6.2	0.0	0.2
139	Jahdae Walker thin prior (5 touches)	WR	CHI	vs PHI		0.8	-5.2	0.7	0.5	5.7	0.0	0.3
140	Jalen Royals thin prior (2 touches)	WR	KC	@ MIA		0.8	-5.2	0.8	0.5	5.8	0.0	0.2
141	Tylan Wallace thin prior (8 touches)	WR	CLE	vs CAR		0.8	-5.3	0.6	0.4	5.6	0.0	0.3
142	Jonathan Mingo thin prior (32 touches)	WR	DAL	vs BAL		0.8	-5.3	0.8	0.5	5.7	0.0	0.4
143	KhaDarel Hodge thin prior (13 touches)	WR	SF	vs ARI		0.8	-5.3	0.7	0.4	5.6	0.0	0.2
144	Ke'Shawn Williams thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CIN	@ PIT		0.7	-5.3	0.7	0.4	5.1	0.0	0.2
145	Jalen Moreno-Cropper thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NO	vs LV		0.7	-5.3	0.6	0.4	5.1	0.0	0.2
146	Ryan Miller thin prior (8 touches)	WR	MIA	vs KC	Q · 78%	0.7	-5.4	0.6	0.4	4.6	0.0	0.2
147	Treylon Burks thin prior (19 touches)	WR	WAS	vs SEA		0.7	-5.4	0.6	0.4	4.8	0.0	0.3
148	Greg Dortch thin prior (40 touches)	WR	BUF	vs LAC		0.7	-5.4	0.6	0.4	4.5	0.0	0.2
149	Lewis Bond thin prior (0 touches)	WR	HOU	@ IND		0.7	-5.4	0.7	0.4	4.7	0.0	0.3
150	Myles Price thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIN	@ TB		0.6	-5.4	0.6	0.4	4.7	0.0	0.2
151	Odell Beckham Jr. thin prior (18 touches)	WR	NYG	vs TEN		0.6	-5.5	0.6	0.4	4.4	0.0	0.3
152	Dareke Young thin prior (2 touches)	WR	LV	@ NO		0.6	-5.5	0.6	0.4	4.4	0.0	0.2
153	Kolbe Katsis thin prior (0 touches)	WR	DEN	vs LA		0.6	-5.5	0.6	0.3	4.2	0.0	0.3
154	Anthony Gould thin prior (1 touches)	WR	IND	vs HOU		0.6	-5.5	0.5	0.3	4.1	0.0	0.2
155	Cody White thin prior (3 touches)	WR	LV	@ NO		0.6	-5.5	0.5	0.3	4.1	0.0	0.0
156	Sterling Shepard thin prior (46 touches)	WR	NYJ	@ DET		0.6	-5.5	0.7	0.4	4.1	0.0	0.2
157	Simi Fehoko thin prior (5 touches)	WR	ARI	@ SF		0.5	-5.5	0.5	0.3	3.9	0.0	0.2
158	J. Michael Sturdivant thin prior (0 touches)	WR	GB	vs ATL		0.5	-5.5	0.5	0.3	3.8	0.0	0.2
159	Tay Martin thin prior (2 touches)	WR	DET	vs NYJ		0.5	-5.5	0.4	0.3	3.7	0.0	0.2
160	Elijah Moore ⚠	WR	PHI	@ CHI		0.5	-5.5	0.6	0.3	3.8	0.0	0.3
161	Jaylin Lane thin prior (16 touches)	WR	WAS	vs SEA		0.2	-5.9	0.2	0.1	1.2	0.0	0.0
162	Devin Duvernay thin prior (9 touches)	WR	ARI	@ SF		0.0	-6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
163	Malachi Corley thin prior (9 touches)	WR	CLE	vs CAR		0.0	-6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
164	Nick Westbrook-Ikhine thin prior (37 touches)	WR	IND	vs HOU		0.0	-6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
165	Nikko Remigio thin prior (2 touches)	WR	KC	@ MIA		0.0	-6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
166	Britain Covey thin prior (6 touches)	WR	PHI	@ CHI		0.0	-6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
167	Kaden Wetjen thin prior (0 touches)	WR	PIT	vs CIN		0.0	-6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
168	Brandon Aiyuk thin prior (35 touches)	WR	SF	vs ARI		0.0	-6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
169	Kameron Johnson thin prior (4 touches)	WR	TB	vs MIN		0.0	-6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
170	Luke McCaffrey thin prior (15 touches)	WR	WAS	vs SEA		0.0	-6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

VORP = this player's points minus the points of the last startable player at his position (hover the VORP cell to see who). Baseline rank = teams × starters, with FLEX split RB/WR/TE 45/45/10.

Known limitations

Thin priors over-projected QBs. Efficiency comes from 2023–25, regressed toward the league average by sample size. Over Weeks 1–4, QB1s whose prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted dropbacks were projected +3.9 PPR a game too high (9 QBs; established QB1s +0.1). Those rows carry a thin prior chip. From Week 7 (model n8-v3) a QB's passing rates also read his own 2026 dropbacks, weighted against the prior's sample plus a fixed anchor, so a few snaps barely move them. On Weeks 5–6 this halved the thin-QB bias. Rushing rates and the game lines still use the prior: the game-level check of the same change failed.
Team pass volume is a 2023–25 prior too; in-season, only player shares blend toward what is observed. Blending team volume in-season was tested twice and lost to the prior both times.