NFL Player Projections

Week 2 — opponent-adjusted (this week's defence, home/away), availability-weighted, byes zeroed. Components (volume × efficiency) with scoring applied as a view. Model n8-v2 · updated 39d ago.

Week: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8• Season Position: All QB RB WR TE

Scoring: PPR Half Standard DK Rank by: VORP Points ⬇ CSV

League & scoring settings — server-side, from your stored component projections; the URL is the saved config

168 players · ranked by VORP under standard scoring, 12-team league (1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1FLEX). thin prior (n) = the efficiency prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted 2023–25 dropbacks (QB) or 55 touches (RB/WR/TE), so the league average carries about half or more of the line's efficiency; ⚠ = low-sample / rookie (archetype-driven). A designation like Q · 60% means the line is weighted by that play probability; BYE rows project 0 and are kept visible.

Replacement level (VORP is measured against these): QB12 Baker Mayfield · 17.8 pts · RB29 Quinshon Judkins · 8.0 pts · WR41 Jayden Reed · 6.1 pts · TE13 Kyle Pitts · 4.9 pts

#	Player	Pos	Tm	Opp	Status	Pts	VORP	Tgt	Rec	RecYd	RecTD	Car
1	CeeDee Lamb	WR	DAL	vs WAS		11.7	+5.6	9.2	6.1	88.8	0.5	0.6
2	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	SEA	@ ARI		11.6	+5.6	9.5	6.6	87.0	0.5	0.2
3	Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	@ BUF		10.6	+4.5	9.4	6.6	74.1	0.5	0.2
4	DJ Moore ⚠	WR	BUF	vs DET		9.4	+3.3	8.2	5.3	67.1	0.4	0.3
5	Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	@ HOU		9.2	+3.2	8.7	5.9	65.8	0.4	0.2
6	Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	@ CHI		9.1	+3.0	8.4	5.3	69.7	0.3	0.2
7	Jaylen Waddle ⚠	WR	DEN	vs JAX		9.0	+3.0	7.5	4.9	67.9	0.4	0.2
8	Mike Evans ⚠	WR	SF	vs MIA		8.9	+2.9	7.7	4.6	60.7	0.5	0.2
9	Drake London	WR	ATL	vs CAR		8.6	+2.5	7.2	4.5	62.5	0.4	0.4
10	Alec Pierce	WR	IND	@ KC		8.6	+2.5	6.8	3.9	63.3	0.4	0.2
11	Garrett Wilson	WR	NYJ	vs GB		8.6	+2.5	8.3	5.1	61.6	0.4	0.2
12	Christian Watson thin prior (54 touches)	WR	GB	@ NYJ		8.4	+2.3	6.4	3.9	60.3	0.4	0.2
13	DeVonta Smith	WR	PHI	@ TEN		8.4	+2.3	6.9	4.7	61.7	0.4	0.2
14	Romeo Doubs ⚠	WR	NE	vs PIT		8.3	+2.3	7.1	4.5	58.5	0.4	0.2
15	Quentin Johnston	WR	LAC	vs LV		8.3	+2.3	6.7	4.1	56.8	0.4	0.2
16	George Pickens	WR	DAL	vs WAS		8.2	+2.1	5.9	3.7	61.9	0.3	0.3
17	Davante Adams	WR	LA	vs NYG		8.0	+1.9	7.9	4.6	51.6	0.5	0.2
18	Parker Washington	WR	JAX	@ DEN		7.8	+1.8	7.5	4.7	56.7	0.4	0.2
19	Xavier Hutchinson thin prior (40 touches)	WR	HOU	vs CIN		7.7	+1.6	6.9	4.2	56.0	0.4	0.2
20	Tetairoa McMillan	WR	CAR	@ ATL		7.6	+1.5	6.9	4.1	54.9	0.3	0.2
21	Michael Wilson	WR	ARI	vs SEA		7.5	+1.4	6.7	4.3	53.8	0.3	0.2
22	Kayshon Boutte thin prior (45 touches)	WR	HOU	vs CIN		7.4	+1.4	5.4	3.5	53.2	0.4	0.2
23	DK Metcalf	WR	PIT	@ NE		7.4	+1.3	6.4	3.9	53.8	0.3	0.2
24	Terry McLaurin	WR	WAS	@ DAL		7.3	+1.2	6.4	4.1	52.0	0.3	0.2
25	Rashee Rice	WR	KC	vs IND		7.2	+1.2	6.0	4.1	51.4	0.3	0.2
26	Courtland Sutton	WR	DEN	vs JAX		7.2	+1.1	6.3	3.8	50.2	0.4	0.2
27	Emeka Egbuka	WR	TB	vs CLE		7.0	+0.9	6.9	3.8	50.5	0.3	0.2
28	Jameson Williams	WR	DET	@ BUF		7.0	+0.9	5.7	3.6	51.2	0.3	0.2
29	Tee Higgins	WR	CIN	@ HOU		6.8	+0.8	6.0	3.7	45.5	0.4	0.2
30	Carnell Tate thin prior (0 touches)	WR	TEN	vs PHI		6.8	+0.7	7.2	4.0	49.5	0.3	0.2
31	Jerry Jeudy	WR	CLE	@ TB		6.7	+0.7	7.1	4.1	51.9	0.3	0.2
32	Malik Nabers	WR	NYG	@ LA		6.5	+0.5	6.8	4.2	47.3	0.3	0.2
33	Stefon Diggs ⚠	WR	WAS	@ DAL		6.4	+0.3	6.2	4.5	48.0	0.3	0.2
34	Jalen Coker thin prior (35 touches)	WR	CAR	@ ATL		6.3	+0.3	5.5	3.7	46.6	0.3	0.2
35	Ladd McConkey	WR	LAC	vs LV	Q · 72%	6.3	+0.2	5.2	3.4	45.5	0.3	0.2
36	Malik Washington thin prior (43 touches)	WR	MIA	@ SF		6.2	+0.2	6.8	4.6	44.4	0.3	0.3
37	Devaughn Vele thin prior (36 touches)	WR	NO	@ BAL		6.2	+0.2	6.0	3.9	45.3	0.3	0.2
38	Rome Odunze	WR	CHI	vs MIN		6.2	+0.2	6.2	3.4	44.6	0.3	0.2
39	Khalil Shakir	WR	BUF	vs DET		6.2	+0.1	5.6	4.0	46.4	0.3	0.3
40	Puka Nacua	WR	LA	vs NYG	Q · 50%	6.1	+0.0	4.7	3.4	46.4	0.2	0.1
41	Jayden Reed thin prior (52 touches)	WR	GB	@ NYJ		6.1	+0.0	4.8	3.3	43.9	0.3	0.3
42	Jalen Nailor thin prior (40 touches)	WR	LV	@ LAC		6.1	+0.0	5.5	3.3	42.2	0.3	0.2
43	KC Concepcion thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CLE	@ TB		6.0	-0.1	6.4	3.6	43.8	0.3	0.9
44	Xavier Worthy	WR	KC	vs IND		6.0	-0.1	5.7	3.4	44.0	0.3	0.2
45	Tre Tucker	WR	LV	@ LAC		6.0	-0.1	6.0	3.7	43.0	0.3	0.2
46	Devontez Walker thin prior (5 touches)	WR	BAL	vs NO		5.9	-0.1	4.8	3.1	41.6	0.3	0.3
47	Rashod Bateman thin prior (52 touches)	WR	BAL	vs NO		5.8	-0.3	5.0	3.0	40.5	0.3	0.2
48	Brian Thomas Jr.	WR	JAX	@ DEN		5.8	-0.3	5.5	3.3	42.7	0.2	0.2
49	DeMario Douglas	WR	NE	vs PIT		5.7	-0.4	5.2	3.5	42.4	0.2	0.2
50	Deebo Samuel Sr.	WR	SF	vs MIA		5.6	-0.5	4.8	3.2	40.6	0.3	0.6
51	Jahan Dotson thin prior (44 touches)	WR	ATL	vs CAR		5.6	-0.5	5.2	3.1	41.1	0.2	0.2
52	Chris Olave	WR	NO	@ BAL	Q · 72%	5.6	-0.5	5.4	3.5	40.5	0.3	0.1
53	Luther Burden III thin prior (30 touches)	WR	CHI	vs MIN		5.5	-0.5	5.0	3.4	42.3	0.2	0.4
54	Caleb Douglas thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIA	@ SF		5.5	-0.6	6.0	3.3	40.1	0.2	0.2
55	Josh Downs	WR	IND	@ KC		5.4	-0.7	5.6	3.7	39.1	0.2	0.2
56	Dontayvion Wicks ⚠	WR	PHI	@ TEN		5.3	-0.7	4.9	3.0	37.8	0.3	0.2
57	Chris Godwin Jr.	WR	TB	vs CLE		5.2	-0.9	5.2	3.4	38.5	0.2	0.5
58	Jordan Addison	WR	MIN	@ CHI		5.2	-0.9	4.6	2.8	36.2	0.3	0.2
59	Roman Wilson thin prior (10 touches)	WR	PIT	@ NE		5.1	-0.9	4.7	2.9	36.7	0.2	0.2
60	Tre Harris thin prior (22 touches)	WR	LAC	vs LV		5.1	-1.0	4.6	3.0	37.6	0.2	0.2
61	Rashid Shaheed	WR	SEA	@ ARI		5.0	-1.0	4.7	2.9	37.5	0.2	0.2
62	Kalif Raymond thin prior (30 touches)	WR	CHI	vs MIN		5.0	-1.1	4.9	3.4	37.3	0.2	0.3
63	Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	ARI	vs SEA		5.0	-1.1	4.5	2.6	35.3	0.2	0.2
64	Adonai Mitchell thin prior (54 touches)	WR	NYJ	vs GB		4.7	-1.3	4.8	2.6	35.1	0.2	0.2
65	Ryan Flournoy thin prior (32 touches)	WR	DAL	vs WAS		4.7	-1.4	3.8	2.5	34.0	0.2	0.3
66	Wan'Dale Robinson ⚠	WR	TEN	vs PHI		4.7	-1.4	5.3	3.5	35.4	0.2	0.2
67	Konata Mumpfield thin prior (12 touches)	WR	LA	vs NYG		4.6	-1.5	4.2	2.5	32.5	0.2	0.2
68	Malachi Fields thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NYG	@ LA		4.5	-1.5	5.1	2.8	33.0	0.2	0.2
69	Matthew Golden thin prior (22 touches)	WR	GB	@ NYJ		4.4	-1.7	4.2	2.7	33.5	0.2	0.2
70	Kendrick Bourne thin prior (49 touches)	WR	ARI	vs SEA		4.4	-1.7	4.2	2.8	33.8	0.2	0.2
71	Pat Bryant thin prior (24 touches)	WR	DEN	vs JAX		4.2	-1.9	3.8	2.4	31.4	0.2	0.2
72	Denzel Boston thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CLE	@ TB		3.9	-2.1	4.2	2.3	28.7	0.2	0.2
73	Jaylin Noel thin prior (18 touches)	WR	HOU	vs CIN		3.7	-2.3	3.1	2.0	27.1	0.2	0.2
74	Tyquan Thornton thin prior (26 touches)	WR	KC	vs IND		3.5	-2.6	2.8	1.7	25.8	0.2	0.2
75	Andrei Iosivas thin prior (52 touches)	WR	CIN	@ HOU		3.5	-2.6	3.5	2.1	24.1	0.2	0.2
76	Mack Hollins thin prior (54 touches)	WR	NE	vs PIT		3.4	-2.7	3.3	2.2	25.0	0.1	0.2
77	Antonio Williams thin prior (0 touches)	WR	WAS	@ DAL		3.4	-2.7	3.5	1.9	24.5	0.2	0.2
78	Makai Lemon thin prior (0 touches)	WR	PHI	@ TEN		3.3	-2.7	3.4	1.9	24.3	0.2	0.2
79	Keenan Allen ⚠	WR	IND	@ KC		3.3	-2.8	4.2	2.7	23.7	0.2	0.2
80	Tai Felton thin prior (2 touches)	WR	MIN	@ CHI		3.2	-2.8	3.1	2.0	23.6	0.1	0.3
81	Demarcus Robinson thin prior (44 touches)	WR	SF	vs MIA		3.2	-2.9	2.8	1.7	22.5	0.2	0.2
82	Xavier Legette	WR	CAR	@ ATL		3.2	-2.9	3.3	2.0	22.3	0.2	0.2
83	Jack Bech thin prior (14 touches)	WR	LV	@ LAC		3.2	-2.9	3.3	2.1	23.9	0.1	0.2
84	Keon Coleman thin prior (47 touches)	WR	BUF	vs DET		3.1	-3.0	2.8	1.7	21.9	0.2	0.3
85	Cooper Kupp	WR	SEA	@ ARI		3.1	-3.0	3.1	2.0	22.6	0.1	0.2
86	Olamide Zaccheaus ⚠	WR	ATL	vs CAR		3.1	-3.0	2.9	1.8	21.8	0.1	0.2
87	Chris Moore thin prior (18 touches)	WR	BAL	vs NO		3.1	-3.0	2.9	1.8	23.0	0.1	0.2
88	Barion Brown thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NO	@ BAL		3.1	-3.0	3.4	1.9	22.3	0.1	0.4
89	Jakobi Meyers	WR	JAX	@ DEN		3.0	-3.0	3.2	2.2	22.8	0.1	0.4
90	Germie Bernard thin prior (0 touches)	WR	PIT	@ NE		3.0	-3.0	3.2	1.8	22.0	0.1	0.3
91	Isaiah Williams thin prior (19 touches)	WR	NYJ	vs GB		3.0	-3.1	2.9	1.9	21.8	0.1	0.2
92	Isaac TeSlaa thin prior (14 touches)	WR	DET	@ BUF		2.9	-3.1	2.6	1.6	19.8	0.2	0.2
93	Chris Bell thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIA	@ SF		2.9	-3.2	3.1	1.7	21.1	0.1	0.2
94	Darnell Mooney ⚠	WR	NYG	@ LA		2.9	-3.2	3.0	1.7	21.6	0.1	0.2
95	Calvin Ridley	WR	TEN	vs PHI		2.9	-3.2	3.0	1.7	21.5	0.1	0.2
96	Jalen McMillan thin prior (25 touches)	WR	TB	vs CLE	Q · 78%	2.8	-3.2	2.5	1.6	19.9	0.1	0.2
97	Troy Franklin	WR	DEN	vs JAX		2.4	-3.6	2.3	1.4	17.0	0.1	0.6
98	Ted Hurst III thin prior (0 touches)	WR	TB	vs CLE		2.3	-3.7	2.6	1.4	17.0	0.1	0.2
99	KaVontae Turpin thin prior (38 touches)	WR	DAL	vs WAS		2.3	-3.7	1.8	1.2	17.1	0.1	0.4
100	Xavier Smith thin prior (13 touches)	WR	LA	vs NYG		2.2	-3.9	1.8	1.2	16.8	0.1	0.2
101	Tutu Atwell thin prior (40 touches)	WR	LA	vs NYG		2.1	-4.0	1.8	1.1	15.7	0.1	0.3
102	Brenen Thompson thin prior (0 touches)	WR	LAC	vs LV		1.9	-4.1	1.9	1.1	14.1	0.1	0.3
103	Bryce Lance thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NO	@ BAL		1.9	-4.1	2.1	1.2	14.0	0.1	0.2
104	Jared Wayne thin prior (1 touches)	WR	HOU	vs CIN		1.9	-4.2	1.6	1.0	13.7	0.1	0.2
105	Josh Cameron thin prior (0 touches)	WR	JAX	@ DEN		1.8	-4.3	2.0	1.1	12.8	0.1	0.2
106	Josh Palmer thin prior (50 touches)	WR	BUF	vs DET		1.7	-4.3	1.6	1.0	13.4	0.1	0.3
107	Tory Horton thin prior (11 touches)	WR	SEA	@ ARI		1.7	-4.4	1.4	0.9	11.3	0.1	0.3
108	Cyrus Allen thin prior (0 touches)	WR	KC	vs IND		1.6	-4.4	1.6	0.9	11.9	0.1	0.2
109	Arian Smith thin prior (8 touches)	WR	NYJ	vs GB		1.6	-4.4	1.5	0.9	11.8	0.1	0.2
110	Jalen Brooks thin prior (13 touches)	WR	ARI	vs SEA		1.6	-4.4	1.5	0.9	11.8	0.1	0.2
111	Dyami Brown thin prior (35 touches)	WR	WAS	@ DAL		1.6	-4.5	1.6	1.0	11.8	0.1	0.2
112	Isaiah Bond thin prior (22 touches)	WR	CLE	@ TB		1.6	-4.5	1.6	0.9	11.9	0.1	0.3
113	Colbie Young thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CIN	@ HOU		1.5	-4.5	1.8	1.0	11.2	0.1	0.2
114	Kevin Coleman Jr. thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIA	@ SF		1.5	-4.5	1.7	0.9	11.2	0.1	0.2
115	Ben Skowronek thin prior (7 touches)	WR	PIT	@ NE		1.5	-4.5	1.4	0.9	11.2	0.1	0.3
116	Skyy Moore thin prior (12 touches)	WR	GB	@ NYJ		1.5	-4.5	1.4	0.9	11.2	0.1	0.2
117	Elic Ayomanor thin prior (44 touches)	WR	TEN	vs PHI		1.5	-4.5	1.6	0.9	10.7	0.1	0.2
118	Laquon Treadwell thin prior (1 touches)	WR	IND	@ KC		1.5	-4.6	1.5	1.0	10.8	0.1	0.2
119	Zavion Thomas thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CHI	vs MIN		1.5	-4.6	1.6	0.9	10.8	0.1	0.3
120	Malik Benson thin prior (0 touches)	WR	LV	@ LAC		1.5	-4.6	1.7	0.9	10.7	0.1	0.3
121	Chimere Dike thin prior (37 touches)	WR	TEN	vs PHI		1.4	-4.6	1.5	0.9	10.1	0.1	0.2
122	Jacob Cowing thin prior (2 touches)	WR	SF	vs MIA		1.4	-4.7	1.2	0.7	10.2	0.1	0.2
123	Elijah Sarratt thin prior (0 touches)	WR	BAL	vs NO		1.4	-4.7	1.4	0.8	10.0	0.1	0.3
124	Kyle Williams thin prior (10 touches)	WR	NE	vs PIT		1.3	-4.7	1.1	0.7	9.5	0.1	0.2
125	Brycen Tremayne thin prior (9 touches)	WR	CAR	@ ATL		1.3	-4.7	1.2	0.8	9.8	0.1	0.2
126	Odell Beckham Jr. thin prior (18 touches)	WR	NYG	@ LA		1.2	-4.8	1.5	0.9	9.0	0.1	0.2
127	Myles Price thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIN	@ CHI		1.2	-4.8	1.1	0.7	8.8	0.1	0.2
128	Zachariah Branch thin prior (0 touches)	WR	ATL	vs CAR		1.2	-4.9	1.2	0.6	8.8	0.1	0.2
129	Tom Kennedy thin prior (2 touches)	WR	DET	@ BUF		1.2	-4.9	1.2	0.8	8.8	0.1	0.2
130	Tez Johnson thin prior (22 touches)	WR	TB	vs CLE		1.2	-4.9	1.1	0.7	8.2	0.1	0.5
131	Darius Cooper thin prior (6 touches)	WR	PHI	@ TEN		1.1	-4.9	1.0	0.7	8.5	0.1	0.2
132	LaJohntay Wester thin prior (0 touches)	WR	BAL	vs NO		1.0	-5.1	0.9	0.6	7.3	0.0	0.2
133	Travis Hunter ⚠	WR	JAX	@ DEN		1.0	-5.1	1.0	0.6	7.1	0.0	0.4
134	Derius Davis thin prior (10 touches)	WR	LAC	vs LV		1.0	-5.1	0.9	0.6	7.0	0.0	0.2
135	Lil'Jordan Humphrey thin prior (30 touches)	WR	DEN	vs JAX		0.9	-5.2	0.8	0.5	6.2	0.0	0.3
136	Jonathan Mingo thin prior (32 touches)	WR	DAL	vs WAS		0.8	-5.2	0.8	0.5	6.1	0.0	0.3
137	Kevin Austin Jr. thin prior (18 touches)	WR	NO	@ BAL		0.8	-5.2	0.8	0.5	6.1	0.0	0.2
138	Jahdae Walker thin prior (5 touches)	WR	CHI	vs MIN		0.8	-5.3	0.7	0.5	5.6	0.0	0.3
139	Bo Melton ⚠	WR	GB	@ NYJ		0.8	-5.3	0.7	0.4	5.7	0.0	0.2
140	Jaylin Lane thin prior (16 touches)	WR	WAS	@ DAL		0.8	-5.3	0.7	0.4	5.7	0.0	0.2
141	Tylan Wallace thin prior (8 touches)	WR	CLE	@ TB		0.8	-5.3	0.7	0.4	5.5	0.0	0.3
142	Lewis Bond thin prior (0 touches)	WR	HOU	vs CIN		0.7	-5.3	0.7	0.4	5.4	0.0	0.3
143	Efton Chism III thin prior (2 touches)	WR	NE	vs PIT		0.7	-5.4	0.6	0.4	5.1	0.0	0.3
144	Dohnte Meyers thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CIN	@ HOU		0.7	-5.4	0.8	0.4	4.9	0.0	0.4
145	Ryan Miller thin prior (8 touches)	WR	MIA	@ SF		0.7	-5.4	0.6	0.4	4.6	0.0	0.3
146	John Metchie III thin prior (41 touches)	WR	CAR	@ ATL		0.6	-5.4	0.7	0.4	4.6	0.0	0.3
147	Deion Burks thin prior (0 touches)	WR	IND	@ KC		0.6	-5.5	0.7	0.4	4.3	0.0	0.3
148	Jalen Royals thin prior (2 touches)	WR	KC	vs IND		0.6	-5.5	0.5	0.3	4.3	0.0	0.2
149	Marquise Brown ⚠	WR	PHI	@ TEN		0.6	-5.5	0.5	0.3	4.2	0.0	0.3
150	Simi Fehoko thin prior (5 touches)	WR	ARI	vs SEA		0.5	-5.5	0.5	0.3	3.9	0.0	0.2
151	Chris Blair thin prior (1 touches)	WR	ATL	vs CAR		0.5	-5.5	0.5	0.3	4.0	0.0	0.2
152	Dillon Bell thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIN	@ CHI		0.5	-5.5	0.6	0.3	3.9	0.0	0.3
153	Tay Martin thin prior (2 touches)	WR	DET	@ BUF		0.5	-5.5	0.5	0.3	3.8	0.0	0.2
154	Dareke Young thin prior (2 touches)	WR	LV	@ LAC		0.5	-5.5	0.5	0.3	3.7	0.0	0.2
155	KhaDarel Hodge thin prior (13 touches)	WR	SF	vs MIA		0.5	-5.6	0.5	0.3	3.7	0.0	0.2
156	Kaden Wetjen thin prior (0 touches)	WR	PIT	@ NE		0.4	-5.6	0.5	0.3	3.2	0.0	0.2
157	Cody White thin prior (3 touches)	WR	LV	@ LAC		0.2	-5.8	0.2	0.1	1.6	0.0	0.0
158	Devin Duvernay thin prior (9 touches)	WR	ARI	vs SEA		0.0	-6.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
159	Malachi Corley thin prior (9 touches)	WR	CLE	@ TB		0.0	-6.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
160	Camden Brown thin prior (0 touches)	WR	DAL	vs WAS		0.0	-6.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
161	J. Michael Sturdivant thin prior (0 touches)	WR	GB	@ NYJ		0.0	-6.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
162	Anthony Gould thin prior (1 touches)	WR	IND	@ KC		0.0	-6.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
163	Nikko Remigio thin prior (2 touches)	WR	KC	vs IND		0.0	-6.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
164	Gary Jennings thin prior (0 touches)	WR	LAC	vs LV		0.0	-6.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
165	Britain Covey thin prior (6 touches)	WR	PHI	@ TEN		0.0	-6.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
166	Brandon Aiyuk thin prior (35 touches)	WR	SF	vs MIA		0.0	-6.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
167	Kameron Johnson thin prior (4 touches)	WR	TB	vs CLE		0.0	-6.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
168	Treylon Burks thin prior (19 touches)	WR	WAS	@ DAL		0.0	-6.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

VORP = this player's points minus the points of the last startable player at his position (hover the VORP cell to see who). Baseline rank = teams × starters, with FLEX split RB/WR/TE 45/45/10.

Known limitations

Thin priors over-projected QBs. Efficiency comes from 2023–25, regressed toward the league average by sample size. Over Weeks 1–4, QB1s whose prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted dropbacks were projected +3.9 PPR a game too high (9 QBs; established QB1s +0.1). Those rows carry a thin prior chip. From Week 7 (model n8-v3) a QB's passing rates also read his own 2026 dropbacks, weighted against the prior's sample plus a fixed anchor, so a few snaps barely move them. On Weeks 5–6 this halved the thin-QB bias. Rushing rates and the game lines still use the prior: the game-level check of the same change failed.
Team pass volume is a 2023–25 prior too; in-season, only player shares blend toward what is observed. Blending team volume in-season was tested twice and lost to the prior both times.