NFL Player Projections

Week 1 — opponent-adjusted (this week's defence, home/away), availability-weighted, byes zeroed. Components (volume × efficiency) with scoring applied as a view. Model n8-v2 · updated 46d ago.

Week: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8• Season Position: All QB RB WR TE

Scoring: PPR Half Standard DK Rank by: VORP Points ⬇ CSV

League & scoring settings — server-side, from your stored component projections; the URL is the saved config

197 players · ranked by VORP under standard scoring, 12-team league (1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1FLEX). thin prior (n) = the efficiency prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted 2023–25 dropbacks (QB) or 55 touches (RB/WR/TE), so the league average carries about half or more of the line's efficiency; ⚠ = low-sample / rookie (archetype-driven). A designation like Q · 60% means the line is weighted by that play probability; BYE rows project 0 and are kept visible.

Replacement level (VORP is measured against these): QB12 Patrick Mahomes · 17.1 pts · RB29 Jacory Croskey-Merritt · 8.0 pts · WR41 Malik Washington · 6.0 pts · TE13 Colby Parkinson · 4.9 pts

#	Player	Pos	Tm	Opp	Status	Pts	VORP	Tgt	Rec	RecYd	RecTD	Car
1	Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	vs TB		12.2	+6.2	10.0	6.8	86.7	0.6	0.2
2	Puka Nacua	WR	LA	vs SF		11.7	+5.7	9.2	6.6	89.3	0.5	0.3
3	Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	vs NO		10.6	+4.6	8.7	6.1	74.2	0.5	0.3
4	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	SEA	vs NE		10.3	+4.4	8.1	5.6	77.3	0.4	0.2
5	CeeDee Lamb	WR	DAL	@ NYG		10.2	+4.2	9.1	6.1	77.5	0.4	0.4
6	Nico Collins	WR	HOU	vs BUF		9.7	+3.7	7.6	4.9	71.6	0.4	0.3
7	Alec Pierce	WR	IND	vs BAL		9.6	+3.6	7.0	4.1	70.7	0.4	0.3
8	Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	vs GB		9.2	+3.2	7.9	5.0	70.4	0.4	0.3
9	DeVonta Smith	WR	PHI	vs WAS		9.1	+3.1	6.9	4.7	67.4	0.4	0.3
10	Jaylen Waddle ⚠	WR	DEN	@ KC		9.0	+3.0	8.2	5.4	67.8	0.4	0.3
11	Ladd McConkey	WR	LAC	vs ARI		8.8	+2.8	7.1	4.6	63.8	0.4	0.3
12	Romeo Doubs ⚠	WR	NE	@ SEA		8.4	+2.5	8.0	5.1	59.2	0.4	0.3
13	Carnell Tate thin prior (0 touches)	WR	TEN	vs NYJ		8.2	+2.2	7.9	4.4	60.0	0.4	0.3
14	Brian Thomas Jr.	WR	JAX	vs CLE		8.0	+2.0	7.4	4.5	59.5	0.3	0.3
15	Zay Flowers	WR	BAL	@ IND		8.0	+2.0	6.9	4.7	61.3	0.3	0.3
16	Mike Evans ⚠	WR	SF	@ LA		8.0	+2.0	8.0	4.8	54.4	0.4	0.3
17	Tre Tucker	WR	LV	vs MIA		7.9	+1.9	6.9	4.2	57.3	0.4	0.3
18	Tee Higgins	WR	CIN	vs TB		7.9	+1.9	6.0	3.8	52.6	0.4	0.2
19	Chris Olave	WR	NO	@ DET		7.9	+1.9	7.8	5.0	57.5	0.4	0.3
20	DK Metcalf	WR	PIT	vs ATL		7.8	+1.9	6.3	3.8	57.3	0.4	0.3
21	Rashee Rice	WR	KC	vs DEN		7.8	+1.8	6.9	4.8	55.6	0.4	0.2
22	DJ Moore ⚠	WR	BUF	@ HOU		7.8	+1.8	7.7	5.0	56.0	0.4	0.3
23	Tetairoa McMillan	WR	CAR	vs CHI		7.8	+1.8	6.7	4.0	56.5	0.4	0.3
24	Drake London	WR	ATL	@ PIT		7.8	+1.8	7.3	4.6	56.4	0.4	0.3
25	Emeka Egbuka	WR	TB	@ CIN		7.7	+1.7	7.1	4.0	55.5	0.4	0.3
26	Jalen Nailor thin prior (40 touches)	WR	LV	vs MIA		7.6	+1.6	5.9	3.6	52.9	0.4	0.2
27	Garrett Wilson	WR	NYJ	@ TEN		7.5	+1.6	7.4	4.6	54.4	0.4	0.2
28	Christian Watson thin prior (54 touches)	WR	GB	@ MIN		7.5	+1.5	6.6	4.0	54.2	0.3	0.3
29	Kayshon Boutte thin prior (45 touches)	WR	HOU	vs BUF		7.4	+1.4	5.9	3.8	53.3	0.4	0.3
30	Jerry Jeudy	WR	CLE	@ JAX		7.1	+1.1	7.6	4.4	54.9	0.3	0.3
31	Quentin Johnston	WR	LAC	vs ARI		7.0	+1.0	5.5	3.4	47.8	0.4	0.3
32	George Pickens	WR	DAL	@ NYG		6.8	+0.9	5.6	3.5	51.6	0.3	0.3
33	Terry McLaurin	WR	WAS	@ PHI		6.8	+0.8	6.6	4.2	48.9	0.3	0.3
34	Jameson Williams	WR	DET	vs NO		6.8	+0.8	5.2	3.2	50.2	0.3	0.3
35	Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	ARI	@ LAC		6.7	+0.7	6.4	3.7	47.6	0.3	0.2
36	Luther Burden III thin prior (30 touches)	WR	CHI	@ CAR		6.6	+0.6	5.6	3.9	50.2	0.3	0.3
37	Courtland Sutton	WR	DEN	@ KC		6.4	+0.4	6.2	3.8	44.8	0.3	0.3
38	Malachi Fields thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NYG	vs DAL		6.4	+0.4	6.2	3.4	46.4	0.3	0.3
39	Jordan Addison	WR	MIN	vs GB		6.4	+0.4	5.3	3.2	44.7	0.3	0.3
40	Josh Downs	WR	IND	vs BAL		6.2	+0.3	6.0	4.0	45.6	0.3	0.3
41	Malik Washington thin prior (43 touches)	WR	MIA	@ LV		6.0	+0.0	6.4	4.3	42.6	0.3	0.3
42	Dontayvion Wicks ⚠	WR	PHI	vs WAS		6.0	-0.0	5.0	3.1	42.0	0.3	0.3
43	Michael Pittman ⚠	WR	PIT	vs ATL		5.9	-0.1	5.5	3.7	43.0	0.3	0.3
44	Parker Washington	WR	JAX	vs CLE		5.9	-0.1	5.4	3.4	42.7	0.3	0.3
45	KC Concepcion thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CLE	@ JAX		5.9	-0.1	6.3	3.5	42.8	0.3	0.3
46	Chris Godwin Jr.	WR	TB	@ CIN		5.9	-0.1	5.5	3.6	43.4	0.3	0.3
47	Jalen Coker thin prior (35 touches)	WR	CAR	vs CHI		5.8	-0.2	4.8	3.2	42.9	0.3	0.3
48	Michael Wilson	WR	ARI	@ LAC		5.7	-0.3	5.5	3.5	41.1	0.3	0.2
49	Malik Nabers	WR	NYG	vs DAL	Q · 78%	5.5	-0.5	4.9	3.0	39.6	0.3	0.2
50	Rashid Shaheed	WR	SEA	vs NE		5.3	-0.7	4.7	2.9	39.3	0.2	0.2
51	Jayden Reed thin prior (52 touches)	WR	GB	@ MIN		5.3	-0.7	4.8	3.3	38.1	0.2	0.3
52	Caleb Douglas thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIA	@ LV		5.3	-0.7	5.6	3.1	38.4	0.2	0.3
53	Wan'Dale Robinson ⚠	WR	TEN	vs NYJ		5.2	-0.8	5.2	3.5	39.5	0.2	0.3
54	Rome Odunze	WR	CHI	@ CAR	Q · 72%	5.2	-0.8	4.9	2.7	37.1	0.2	0.2
55	Devaughn Vele thin prior (36 touches)	WR	NO	@ DET		5.2	-0.8	5.0	3.3	37.6	0.2	0.3
56	Xavier Worthy	WR	KC	vs DEN		5.1	-0.9	5.2	3.1	37.6	0.2	0.3
57	Davante Adams	WR	LA	vs SF		5.1	-0.9	5.2	3.0	33.2	0.3	0.3
58	Khalil Shakir	WR	BUF	@ HOU		5.0	-0.9	5.0	3.6	37.7	0.2	0.3
59	Jahan Dotson thin prior (44 touches)	WR	ATL	@ PIT		5.0	-1.0	5.2	3.1	36.7	0.2	0.3
60	Stefon Diggs ⚠	WR	WAS	@ PHI		4.9	-1.1	5.2	3.8	36.6	0.2	0.3
61	DeMario Douglas	WR	NE	@ SEA		4.6	-1.4	4.7	3.1	34.4	0.2	0.3
62	Rashod Bateman thin prior (52 touches)	WR	BAL	@ IND		4.5	-1.4	4.1	2.4	31.8	0.2	0.3
63	Adonai Mitchell thin prior (54 touches)	WR	NYJ	@ TEN		4.5	-1.5	4.7	2.5	33.4	0.2	0.2
64	Kalif Raymond thin prior (30 touches)	WR	CHI	@ CAR		4.4	-1.6	4.2	2.9	33.3	0.2	0.3
65	Deebo Samuel Sr.	WR	SF	@ LA		4.4	-1.6	4.3	2.9	32.0	0.2	0.5
66	Andrei Iosivas thin prior (52 touches)	WR	CIN	vs TB		4.1	-1.9	3.6	2.2	28.8	0.2	0.2
67	Darnell Mooney ⚠	WR	NYG	vs DAL		4.1	-1.9	3.8	2.1	31.3	0.2	0.3
68	Ryan Flournoy thin prior (32 touches)	WR	DAL	@ NYG		3.9	-2.1	3.5	2.3	27.9	0.2	0.3
69	Jauan Jennings ⚠	WR	MIN	vs GB		3.9	-2.1	3.2	2.1	26.6	0.2	0.3
70	Tyquan Thornton thin prior (26 touches)	WR	KC	vs DEN		3.8	-2.2	3.3	1.9	27.7	0.2	0.2
71	Ted Hurst III thin prior (0 touches)	WR	TB	@ CIN		3.8	-2.2	3.8	2.1	27.4	0.2	0.3
72	Xavier Legette	WR	CAR	vs CHI		3.7	-2.3	3.6	2.1	25.8	0.2	0.3
73	Jack Bech thin prior (14 touches)	WR	LV	vs MIA		3.7	-2.3	3.2	2.1	27.5	0.2	0.2
74	Jordan Whittington thin prior (21 touches)	WR	LA	vs SF		3.7	-2.3	3.3	2.2	27.8	0.1	0.3
75	Isaac TeSlaa thin prior (14 touches)	WR	DET	vs NO		3.6	-2.3	3.0	1.9	24.6	0.2	0.3
76	Tre Harris thin prior (22 touches)	WR	LAC	vs ARI		3.6	-2.4	3.2	2.1	26.8	0.2	0.3
77	Denzel Boston thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CLE	@ JAX		3.6	-2.4	3.9	2.1	26.2	0.2	0.3
78	Roman Wilson thin prior (10 touches)	WR	PIT	vs ATL		3.6	-2.4	3.0	1.9	25.5	0.2	0.3
79	Omar Cooper Jr. thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NYJ	@ TEN		3.4	-2.6	3.5	1.9	24.9	0.2	0.2
80	Kendrick Bourne thin prior (49 touches)	WR	ARI	@ LAC		3.4	-2.6	3.5	2.3	26.2	0.1	0.2
81	Calvin Ridley	WR	TEN	vs NYJ		3.3	-2.6	3.2	1.8	25.2	0.1	0.3
82	Xavier Hutchinson thin prior (40 touches)	WR	HOU	vs BUF		3.3	-2.7	3.2	1.9	24.0	0.2	0.3
83	Makai Lemon thin prior (0 touches)	WR	PHI	vs WAS		3.3	-2.7	3.1	1.7	23.9	0.1	0.3
84	Jakobi Meyers	WR	JAX	vs CLE		3.3	-2.7	3.3	2.2	24.5	0.1	0.3
85	Barion Brown thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NO	@ DET		3.3	-2.7	3.6	2.0	23.7	0.1	0.3
86	Marvin Mims Jr. thin prior (48 touches)	WR	DEN	@ KC		3.2	-2.8	3.1	2.1	23.4	0.1	0.4
87	Chris Bell thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIA	@ LV		3.2	-2.8	3.4	1.9	23.4	0.1	0.3
88	Keenan Allen ⚠	WR	IND	vs BAL		3.1	-2.8	3.7	2.4	22.7	0.1	0.3
89	Keon Coleman thin prior (47 touches)	WR	BUF	@ HOU		3.0	-3.0	3.0	1.8	21.3	0.1	0.3
90	Olamide Zaccheaus ⚠	WR	ATL	@ PIT		3.0	-3.0	3.2	2.0	21.3	0.1	0.3
91	Cooper Kupp	WR	SEA	vs NE		2.9	-3.0	2.9	1.9	21.6	0.1	0.2
92	De'Zhaun Stribling thin prior (0 touches)	WR	SF	@ LA		2.9	-3.1	3.3	1.8	21.2	0.1	0.3
93	Matthew Golden thin prior (22 touches)	WR	GB	@ MIN		2.8	-3.2	3.1	2.0	21.5	0.1	0.3
94	Antonio Williams thin prior (0 touches)	WR	WAS	@ PHI		2.8	-3.2	3.2	1.8	20.3	0.1	0.3
95	Ja'Kobi Lane thin prior (0 touches)	WR	BAL	@ IND		2.7	-3.3	2.8	1.6	19.6	0.1	0.3
96	Mack Hollins thin prior (54 touches)	WR	NE	@ SEA		2.6	-3.3	2.9	1.9	19.5	0.1	0.3
97	KaVontae Turpin thin prior (38 touches)	WR	DAL	@ NYG		2.2	-3.8	2.0	1.3	16.3	0.1	0.5
98	Troy Franklin	WR	DEN	@ KC		1.9	-4.1	2.1	1.3	13.5	0.1	0.3
99	Tez Johnson thin prior (22 touches)	WR	TB	@ CIN		1.9	-4.1	1.7	1.1	13.2	0.1	0.3
100	Zavion Thomas thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CHI	@ CAR		1.8	-4.2	1.9	1.1	13.3	0.1	0.3
101	Chimere Dike thin prior (37 touches)	WR	TEN	vs NYJ		1.8	-4.2	1.7	1.1	12.7	0.1	0.3
102	Colbie Young thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CIN	vs TB		1.8	-4.2	1.8	1.0	13.1	0.1	0.2
103	Ashton Dulin thin prior (7 touches)	WR	IND	vs BAL		1.8	-4.2	1.6	0.9	13.1	0.1	0.3
104	Travis Hunter ⚠	WR	JAX	vs CLE		1.8	-4.2	1.7	1.1	12.8	0.1	0.3
105	Brenen Thompson thin prior (0 touches)	WR	LAC	vs ARI		1.7	-4.3	1.7	0.9	12.5	0.1	0.3
106	Jaylin Noel thin prior (18 touches)	WR	HOU	vs BUF		1.7	-4.3	1.5	1.0	12.5	0.1	0.3
107	Konata Mumpfield thin prior (12 touches)	WR	LA	vs SF		1.7	-4.3	1.6	1.0	12.2	0.1	0.3
108	Malik Benson thin prior (0 touches)	WR	LV	vs MIA		1.7	-4.3	1.6	0.9	12.4	0.1	0.2
109	Jimmy Horn Jr. thin prior (8 touches)	WR	CAR	vs CHI		1.7	-4.3	1.5	1.0	12.5	0.1	0.3
110	Odell Beckham Jr. thin prior (18 touches)	WR	NYG	vs DAL		1.6	-4.3	1.7	1.0	12.1	0.1	0.3
111	Marquise Brown ⚠	WR	PHI	vs WAS		1.6	-4.3	1.4	0.9	11.6	0.1	0.3
112	Tai Felton thin prior (2 touches)	WR	MIN	vs GB		1.6	-4.4	1.5	0.9	11.9	0.1	0.3
113	Cyrus Allen thin prior (0 touches)	WR	KC	vs DEN		1.6	-4.4	1.7	0.9	11.8	0.1	0.2
114	Isaiah Bond thin prior (22 touches)	WR	CLE	@ JAX		1.6	-4.4	1.7	0.9	12.1	0.1	0.3
115	Tom Kennedy thin prior (2 touches)	WR	DET	vs NO		1.6	-4.4	1.5	1.0	11.7	0.1	0.3
116	Germie Bernard thin prior (0 touches)	WR	PIT	vs ATL		1.5	-4.5	1.5	0.8	11.2	0.1	0.3
117	Jalen Brooks thin prior (13 touches)	WR	ARI	@ LAC		1.5	-4.5	1.5	0.9	11.0	0.1	0.2
118	Skyy Moore thin prior (12 touches)	WR	GB	@ MIN		1.5	-4.5	1.6	1.0	11.1	0.1	0.3
119	Isaiah Williams thin prior (19 touches)	WR	NYJ	@ TEN		1.5	-4.5	1.5	1.0	11.1	0.1	0.2
120	Kyle Williams thin prior (10 touches)	WR	NE	@ SEA		1.5	-4.5	1.4	0.8	10.5	0.1	0.3
121	Bryce Lance thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NO	@ DET		1.5	-4.5	1.6	0.9	10.8	0.1	0.3
122	Pat Bryant thin prior (24 touches)	WR	DEN	@ KC		1.5	-4.5	1.5	0.9	11.0	0.1	0.3
123	Montorie Foster Jr thin prior (0 touches)	WR	SEA	vs NE		1.5	-4.5	1.5	0.8	10.7	0.1	0.2
124	Kevin Coleman Jr. thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIA	@ LV		1.5	-4.5	1.6	0.9	10.7	0.1	0.3
125	Demarcus Robinson thin prior (44 touches)	WR	SF	@ LA		1.4	-4.6	1.4	0.8	9.5	0.1	0.3
126	Elic Ayomanor thin prior (44 touches)	WR	TEN	vs NYJ		1.3	-4.7	1.2	0.7	9.4	0.1	0.3
127	Zachariah Branch thin prior (0 touches)	WR	ATL	@ PIT		1.3	-4.7	1.4	0.8	9.6	0.1	0.3
128	Josh Palmer thin prior (50 touches)	WR	BUF	@ HOU		1.3	-4.7	1.4	0.8	10.3	0.0	0.3
129	Chris Moore thin prior (18 touches)	WR	BAL	@ IND		1.3	-4.7	1.3	0.8	9.8	0.1	0.3
130	Dyami Brown thin prior (35 touches)	WR	WAS	@ PHI		1.3	-4.7	1.4	0.9	9.4	0.1	0.3
131	Jahdae Walker thin prior (5 touches)	WR	CHI	@ CAR		0.8	-5.2	0.7	0.5	5.9	0.0	0.3
132	Xavier Smith thin prior (13 touches)	WR	LA	vs SF		0.8	-5.2	0.7	0.5	6.4	0.0	0.3
133	Dalen Cambre thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NYG	vs DAL		0.8	-5.2	0.7	0.4	5.9	0.0	0.3
134	Tylan Wallace thin prior (8 touches)	WR	CLE	@ JAX		0.8	-5.2	0.7	0.4	5.6	0.0	0.3
135	Dareke Young thin prior (2 touches)	WR	LV	vs MIA		0.8	-5.2	0.7	0.4	5.8	0.0	0.2
136	Kameron Johnson thin prior (4 touches)	WR	TB	@ CIN		0.8	-5.2	0.7	0.4	5.5	0.0	0.3
137	KeAndre Lambert-Smith thin prior (6 touches)	WR	LAC	vs ARI		0.7	-5.2	0.6	0.4	5.3	0.0	0.3
138	Brycen Tremayne thin prior (9 touches)	WR	CAR	vs CHI		0.7	-5.3	0.6	0.4	5.4	0.0	0.3
139	Dohnte Meyers thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CIN	vs TB		0.7	-5.3	0.7	0.4	5.2	0.0	0.2
140	Jared Wayne thin prior (1 touches)	WR	HOU	vs BUF		0.7	-5.3	0.7	0.4	5.2	0.0	0.3
141	Kevin Austin Jr. thin prior (18 touches)	WR	NO	@ DET		0.7	-5.3	0.7	0.4	5.2	0.0	0.3
142	Laquon Treadwell thin prior (1 touches)	WR	IND	vs BAL		0.7	-5.3	0.7	0.4	5.1	0.0	0.3
143	Jalen Royals thin prior (2 touches)	WR	KC	vs DEN		0.7	-5.3	0.7	0.4	5.1	0.0	0.2
144	Ben Skowronek thin prior (7 touches)	WR	PIT	vs ATL		0.7	-5.3	0.6	0.4	5.1	0.0	0.3
145	Tay Martin thin prior (2 touches)	WR	DET	vs NO		0.7	-5.3	0.6	0.4	5.0	0.0	0.3
146	Bo Melton ⚠	WR	GB	@ MIN		0.7	-5.3	0.7	0.4	4.9	0.0	0.3
147	Ryan Miller thin prior (8 touches)	WR	MIA	@ LV		0.7	-5.3	0.6	0.4	4.8	0.0	0.3
148	Myles Price thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIN	vs GB		0.7	-5.3	0.6	0.4	4.9	0.0	0.3
149	Darius Cooper thin prior (6 touches)	WR	PHI	vs WAS		0.7	-5.3	0.5	0.4	4.8	0.0	0.3
150	Irvin Charles thin prior (0 touches)	WR	SEA	vs NE		0.7	-5.3	0.6	0.4	4.8	0.0	0.2
151	A.J. Brown ⚠	WR	NE	@ SEA		0.7	-5.3	0.6	0.4	4.8	0.0	0.3
152	Jonathan Mingo thin prior (32 touches)	WR	DAL	@ NYG		0.6	-5.3	0.7	0.4	4.8	0.0	0.3
153	Josh Cameron thin prior (0 touches)	WR	JAX	vs CLE		0.6	-5.3	0.7	0.4	4.7	0.0	0.3
154	Arian Smith thin prior (8 touches)	WR	NYJ	@ TEN		0.6	-5.3	0.6	0.4	4.7	0.0	0.2
155	Devin Duvernay thin prior (9 touches)	WR	ARI	@ LAC		0.6	-5.4	0.6	0.4	4.4	0.0	0.2
156	Chris Blair thin prior (1 touches)	WR	ATL	@ PIT		0.6	-5.4	0.6	0.4	4.4	0.0	0.3
157	Jacob Cowing thin prior (2 touches)	WR	SF	@ LA		0.6	-5.4	0.6	0.4	4.4	0.0	0.3
158	Jaylin Lane thin prior (16 touches)	WR	WAS	@ PHI		0.6	-5.4	0.6	0.4	4.5	0.0	0.3
159	LaJohntay Wester thin prior (0 touches)	WR	BAL	@ IND		0.6	-5.4	0.5	0.3	4.0	0.0	0.3
160	Greg Dortch thin prior (40 touches)	WR	BUF	@ HOU		0.6	-5.4	0.6	0.4	3.8	0.0	0.3
161	Simi Fehoko thin prior (5 touches)	WR	ARI	@ LAC		0.0	-6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
162	Beaux Collins thin prior (3 touches)	WR	ATL	@ PIT		0.0	-6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
163	Chris Brazzell II thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CAR	vs CHI		0.0	-6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
164	Kaden Davis thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CHI	@ CAR		0.0	-6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
165	Malachi Corley thin prior (9 touches)	WR	CLE	@ JAX		0.0	-6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
166	Lil'Jordan Humphrey thin prior (30 touches)	WR	DEN	@ KC		0.0	-6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
167	Kendrick Law thin prior (0 touches)	WR	DET	vs NO		0.0	-6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
168	Savion Williams thin prior (5 touches)	WR	GB	@ MIN		0.0	-6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
169	Tank Dell thin prior (39 touches)	WR	HOU	vs BUF		0.0	-6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
170	Jayden Higgins thin prior (34 touches)	WR	HOU	vs BUF		0.0	-6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
171	Deion Burks thin prior (0 touches)	WR	IND	vs BAL		0.0	-6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
172	D.J. Montgomery thin prior (2 touches)	WR	IND	vs BAL		0.0	-6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
173	CJ Williams thin prior (0 touches)	WR	JAX	vs CLE		0.0	-6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
174	Nikko Remigio thin prior (2 touches)	WR	KC	vs DEN		0.0	-6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
175	Jeff Caldwell thin prior (0 touches)	WR	KC	vs DEN		0.0	-6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
176	Jimmy Holiday thin prior (0 touches)	WR	KC	vs DEN		0.0	-6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
177	Derius Davis thin prior (10 touches)	WR	LAC	vs ARI		0.0	-6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
178	Cody White thin prior (3 touches)	WR	LV	vs MIA		0.0	-6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
179	Dont'e Thornton Jr. thin prior (15 touches)	WR	LV	vs MIA		0.0	-6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
180	Justin Shorter thin prior (0 touches)	WR	LV	vs MIA		0.0	-6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
181	Corey Rucker thin prior (0 touches)	WR	LV	vs MIA		0.0	-6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
182	Jeshaun Jones thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIN	vs GB		0.0	-6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
183	Jeremiah Webb thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NE	@ SEA		0.0	-6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
184	Jordyn Tyson thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NO	@ DET		0.0	-6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
185	Mason Tipton thin prior (16 touches)	WR	NO	@ DET		0.0	-6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
186	Braxton Berrios thin prior (12 touches)	WR	NYG	vs DAL		0.0	-6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
187	Calvin Austin III thin prior (51 touches)	WR	NYG	vs DAL		0.0	-6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
188	Gunner Olszewski thin prior (7 touches)	WR	NYG	vs DAL		0.0	-6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
189	Britain Covey thin prior (6 touches)	WR	PHI	vs WAS		0.0	-6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
190	Johnny Wilson thin prior (4 touches)	WR	PHI	vs WAS		0.0	-6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
191	Kaden Wetjen thin prior (0 touches)	WR	PIT	vs ATL		0.0	-6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
192	Cole Burgess thin prior (0 touches)	WR	PIT	vs ATL		0.0	-6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
193	Jake Bobo thin prior (11 touches)	WR	SEA	vs NE		0.0	-6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
194	Christian Kirk	WR	SF	@ LA		0.0	-6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
195	Brandon Aiyuk thin prior (35 touches)	WR	SF	@ LA		0.0	-6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
196	Ricky Pearsall thin prior (40 touches)	WR	SF	@ LA		0.0	-6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
197	David Sills thin prior (18 touches)	WR	TB	@ CIN		0.0	-6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

VORP = this player's points minus the points of the last startable player at his position (hover the VORP cell to see who). Baseline rank = teams × starters, with FLEX split RB/WR/TE 45/45/10.

Known limitations

Thin priors over-projected QBs. Efficiency comes from 2023–25, regressed toward the league average by sample size. Over Weeks 1–4, QB1s whose prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted dropbacks were projected +3.9 PPR a game too high (9 QBs; established QB1s +0.1). Those rows carry a thin prior chip. From Week 7 (model n8-v3) a QB's passing rates also read his own 2026 dropbacks, weighted against the prior's sample plus a fixed anchor, so a few snaps barely move them. On Weeks 5–6 this halved the thin-QB bias. Rushing rates and the game lines still use the prior: the game-level check of the same change failed.
Team pass volume is a 2023–25 prior too; in-season, only player shares blend toward what is observed. Blending team volume in-season was tested twice and lost to the prior both times.