NFL Player Projections

Week 5 — opponent-adjusted (this week's defence, home/away), availability-weighted, byes zeroed. Components (volume × efficiency) with scoring applied as a view. Model n8-v2 · updated 18d ago.

Week: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8• Season Position: All QB RB WR TE

Scoring: PPR Half Standard DK Rank by: VORP Points ⬇ CSV

League & scoring settings — server-side, from your stored component projections; the URL is the saved config

167 players · ranked by VORP under ppr scoring, 12-team league (1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1FLEX). thin prior (n) = the efficiency prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted 2023–25 dropbacks (QB) or 55 touches (RB/WR/TE), so the league average carries about half or more of the line's efficiency; ⚠ = low-sample / rookie (archetype-driven). A designation like Q · 60% means the line is weighted by that play probability; BYE rows project 0 and are kept visible.

Replacement level (VORP is measured against these): QB12 Brock Purdy · 17.8 pts · RB29 Kendre Miller · 9.2 pts · WR41 Antonio Williams · 9.1 pts · TE13 Dalton Schultz · 8.7 pts

#	Player	Pos	Tm	Opp	Status	Pts	VORP	Tgt	Rec	RecYd	RecTD	Car
1	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	SEA	vs SF		18.8	+9.7	9.6	6.7	90.6	0.5	0.1
2	CeeDee Lamb	WR	DAL	vs TB		18.6	+9.6	10.1	6.7	91.0	0.5	0.4
3	Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	@ ARI		17.2	+8.1	9.0	6.3	76.0	0.5	0.1
4	Puka Nacua	WR	LA	vs BUF		16.3	+7.2	8.3	6.0	78.8	0.4	0.4
5	Michael Wilson	WR	ARI	vs DET		14.8	+5.8	8.4	5.3	68.7	0.4	0.1
6	Chris Olave	WR	NO	vs MIN		13.9	+4.8	8.3	5.4	62.2	0.4	0.2
7	Nico Collins	WR	HOU	@ TEN		13.7	+4.6	7.1	4.5	67.9	0.4	0.3
8	Drake London	WR	ATL	vs BAL		13.7	+4.6	7.8	4.8	64.0	0.4	0.3
9	Romeo Doubs ⚠	WR	NE	vs LV		13.4	+4.3	7.3	4.6	61.6	0.4	0.1
10	Parker Washington	WR	JAX	vs PHI		13.2	+4.1	7.6	4.8	61.2	0.4	0.3
11	Jaylen Waddle ⚠	WR	DEN	@ LAC		12.8	+3.8	7.4	4.8	60.1	0.3	0.3
12	Malik Washington thin prior (43 touches)	WR	MIA	vs CIN		12.8	+3.7	7.5	5.0	55.1	0.4	0.9
13	Garrett Wilson	WR	NYJ	vs CLE		12.5	+3.4	8.0	4.9	54.5	0.4	0.2
14	DK Metcalf	WR	PIT	vs IND		12.5	+3.4	6.7	4.1	61.3	0.4	0.1
15	Khalil Shakir	WR	BUF	@ LA		12.4	+3.3	7.1	5.1	54.5	0.3	0.1
16	Christian Watson thin prior (54 touches)	WR	GB	vs CHI		12.2	+3.2	6.3	3.8	60.8	0.4	0.1
17	Tre Harris thin prior (22 touches)	WR	LAC	vs DEN		12.2	+3.1	7.2	4.7	55.5	0.3	0.1
18	Tee Higgins	WR	CIN	@ MIA	Q · 78%	12.1	+3.0	6.4	4.0	53.7	0.5	0.1
19	George Pickens	WR	DAL	vs TB		11.9	+2.9	6.1	3.9	60.5	0.3	0.2
20	Mike Evans ⚠	WR	SF	@ SEA		11.9	+2.8	7.5	4.5	50.5	0.4	0.1
21	Josh Downs	WR	IND	@ PIT		11.3	+2.3	7.0	4.6	49.3	0.3	0.1
22	Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	@ MIA	Q · 78%	11.3	+2.2	6.1	4.1	51.0	0.3	0.1
23	Malik Nabers	WR	NYG	@ WAS		11.2	+2.1	6.6	4.1	51.6	0.3	0.1
24	Denzel Boston thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CLE	@ NYJ		11.2	+2.1	7.3	4.1	51.9	0.3	0.1
25	Dontayvion Wicks ⚠	WR	PHI	@ JAX		11.1	+2.0	6.7	4.1	49.0	0.3	0.2
26	Luther Burden III thin prior (30 touches)	WR	CHI	@ GB		10.9	+1.8	6.0	4.1	51.7	0.3	0.5
27	Emeka Egbuka	WR	TB	@ DAL		10.6	+1.5	6.6	3.7	50.3	0.3	0.3
28	Wan'Dale Robinson ⚠	WR	TEN	vs HOU		10.5	+1.4	6.8	4.5	45.6	0.2	0.3
29	KC Concepcion thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CLE	@ NYJ		10.3	+1.2	6.7	3.7	47.8	0.3	0.6
30	Matthew Golden thin prior (22 touches)	WR	GB	vs CHI		10.2	+1.1	5.9	3.8	48.6	0.3	0.3
31	Jameson Williams	WR	DET	@ ARI		9.9	+0.8	5.1	3.2	49.4	0.3	0.1
32	Tre Tucker	WR	LV	@ NE		9.7	+0.6	5.9	3.6	43.9	0.3	0.1
33	Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	@ NO	Q · 72%	9.7	+0.6	5.8	3.6	46.3	0.2	0.1
34	Courtland Sutton	WR	DEN	@ LAC		9.6	+0.5	5.9	3.6	42.0	0.3	0.2
35	Zay Flowers	WR	BAL	@ ATL	Q · 72%	9.4	+0.4	5.2	3.5	45.7	0.2	0.2
36	Davante Adams	WR	LA	vs BUF		9.4	+0.3	6.1	3.5	37.9	0.3	0.1
37	Rome Odunze	WR	CHI	@ GB		9.3	+0.3	5.9	3.3	43.4	0.3	0.2
38	Devaughn Vele thin prior (36 touches)	WR	NO	vs MIN		9.1	+0.0	5.4	3.5	40.7	0.3	0.2
39	Roman Wilson thin prior (10 touches)	WR	PIT	vs IND		9.1	+0.0	5.1	3.1	42.7	0.3	0.1
40	Terry McLaurin	WR	WAS	vs NYG	Q · 72%	9.1	+0.0	4.9	3.2	42.4	0.3	0.1
41	Antonio Williams thin prior (0 touches)	WR	WAS	vs NYG		9.1	+0.0	5.8	3.2	42.7	0.3	0.2
42	DeMario Douglas	WR	NE	vs LV		8.9	-0.1	5.0	3.3	42.0	0.2	0.1
43	Kendrick Bourne thin prior (49 touches)	WR	ARI	vs DET		8.7	-0.3	5.1	3.4	41.5	0.2	0.1
44	Carnell Tate thin prior (0 touches)	WR	TEN	vs HOU	Q · 72%	8.7	-0.4	5.8	3.2	39.7	0.2	0.1
45	Chris Godwin Jr.	WR	TB	@ DAL		8.6	-0.5	5.0	3.3	38.9	0.2	0.4
46	Ryan Flournoy thin prior (32 touches)	WR	DAL	vs TB		8.3	-0.8	4.5	3.0	38.2	0.2	0.2
47	Jauan Jennings ⚠	WR	MIN	@ NO		8.2	-0.8	4.8	3.0	35.5	0.3	0.2
48	Rashod Bateman thin prior (52 touches)	WR	BAL	@ ATL		8.2	-0.9	4.8	2.9	37.5	0.3	0.2
49	Jakobi Meyers	WR	JAX	vs PHI		8.1	-1.0	4.9	3.2	36.4	0.2	0.3
50	Keon Coleman thin prior (47 touches)	WR	BUF	@ LA		8.0	-1.1	4.9	3.0	35.6	0.2	0.1
51	Kalif Raymond thin prior (30 touches)	WR	CHI	@ GB		8.0	-1.1	4.6	3.2	35.7	0.2	0.2
52	Dohnte Meyers thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CIN	@ MIA		7.9	-1.1	5.2	2.9	36.7	0.2	0.3
53	Deebo Samuel Sr.	WR	SF	@ SEA		7.8	-1.3	4.6	3.1	33.7	0.2	1.0
54	Chris Bell thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIA	vs CIN		7.7	-1.4	4.8	2.7	36.6	0.2	0.2
55	Jahan Dotson thin prior (44 touches)	WR	ATL	vs BAL		7.7	-1.4	4.7	2.8	35.8	0.2	0.1
56	Brian Thomas Jr.	WR	JAX	vs PHI		7.6	-1.4	4.5	2.7	36.6	0.2	0.1
57	Rashid Shaheed	WR	SEA	vs SF		7.5	-1.6	4.3	2.7	36.0	0.2	0.5
58	Malachi Fields thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NYG	@ WAS		7.3	-1.8	4.7	2.6	34.2	0.2	0.1
59	Tim Patrick thin prior (25 touches)	WR	NYJ	vs CLE	Q · 78%	7.2	-1.8	4.4	2.9	30.9	0.2	0.3
60	Makai Lemon thin prior (0 touches)	WR	PHI	@ JAX		7.0	-2.1	4.7	2.6	32.0	0.2	0.3
61	Cody White thin prior (3 touches)	WR	LV	@ NE		7.0	-2.1	3.9	2.5	32.7	0.2	0.1
62	Keenan Allen ⚠	WR	IND	@ PIT	Q · 78%	6.8	-2.3	4.7	3.0	26.9	0.2	0.1
63	Marvin Harrison Jr. ⚠	WR	HOU	@ TEN		6.6	-2.5	3.8	2.2	31.0	0.2	0.1
64	Isaiah Williams thin prior (19 touches)	WR	NYJ	vs CLE		6.5	-2.6	4.1	2.7	28.3	0.2	0.4
65	Laquon Treadwell thin prior (1 touches)	WR	IND	@ PIT		6.3	-2.7	3.9	2.5	28.2	0.2	0.1
66	Jerry Jeudy	WR	CLE	@ NYJ		6.0	-3.1	3.8	2.2	29.1	0.1	0.2
67	Ted Hurst III thin prior (0 touches)	WR	TB	@ DAL		6.0	-3.1	3.9	2.2	27.6	0.2	0.1
68	Efton Chism III thin prior (2 touches)	WR	NE	vs LV		5.9	-3.2	3.2	2.0	28.1	0.2	0.2
69	Isaac TeSlaa thin prior (14 touches)	WR	DET	@ ARI		5.9	-3.2	3.2	2.0	26.2	0.2	0.1
70	Kevin Coleman Jr. thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIA	vs CIN		5.8	-3.2	3.7	2.0	27.9	0.2	0.2
71	Xavier Hutchinson thin prior (40 touches)	WR	HOU	@ TEN		5.8	-3.3	3.5	2.1	26.6	0.2	0.4
72	Tai Felton thin prior (2 touches)	WR	MIN	@ NO		5.7	-3.4	3.5	2.2	25.6	0.2	0.2
73	Kayshon Boutte thin prior (45 touches)	WR	HOU	@ TEN		5.6	-3.5	2.9	1.9	26.6	0.2	0.1
74	Marquez Valdes-Scantling thin prior (36 touches)	WR	LAC	vs DEN		5.6	-3.5	3.7	2.1	25.1	0.2	0.2
75	Ladd McConkey	WR	LAC	vs DEN	Q · 50%	5.5	-3.6	3.1	2.0	25.1	0.2	0.1
76	Germie Bernard thin prior (0 touches)	WR	PIT	vs IND		5.2	-3.9	3.3	1.8	24.5	0.2	0.2
77	Skyy Moore thin prior (12 touches)	WR	GB	vs CHI		5.1	-4.0	2.9	1.8	24.2	0.1	0.1
78	Mitchell Tinsley thin prior (12 touches)	WR	CIN	@ MIA		5.1	-4.0	3.1	1.8	23.1	0.2	0.2
79	Devontez Walker thin prior (5 touches)	WR	BAL	@ ATL		5.0	-4.0	2.7	1.7	23.1	0.2	0.2
80	Cooper Kupp	WR	SEA	vs SF		5.0	-4.1	3.0	2.0	22.4	0.1	0.1
81	Elic Ayomanor thin prior (44 touches)	WR	TEN	vs HOU		5.0	-4.1	3.3	1.8	22.5	0.2	0.1
82	Darius Cooper thin prior (6 touches)	WR	PHI	@ JAX		5.0	-4.1	2.9	1.9	22.6	0.1	0.2
83	Treylon Burks thin prior (19 touches)	WR	WAS	vs NYG		4.9	-4.2	2.9	1.7	23.2	0.1	0.2
84	Darnell Mooney ⚠	WR	NYG	@ WAS		4.8	-4.2	3.0	1.7	23.9	0.1	0.3
85	Olamide Zaccheaus ⚠	WR	ATL	vs BAL		4.5	-4.6	2.7	1.7	19.7	0.1	0.1
86	Dyami Brown thin prior (35 touches)	WR	WAS	vs NYG		4.4	-4.7	2.6	1.6	20.6	0.1	0.2
87	Bryce Lance thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NO	vs MIN		4.4	-4.7	3.0	1.7	20.0	0.1	0.2
88	Brandin Cooks thin prior (50 touches)	WR	SF	@ SEA		4.3	-4.8	2.9	1.8	18.1	0.1	0.2
89	Jordan Whittington thin prior (21 touches)	WR	LA	vs BUF		4.2	-4.9	2.4	1.6	19.6	0.1	0.2
90	Troy Franklin	WR	DEN	@ LAC		4.1	-5.0	2.6	1.6	17.2	0.1	0.4
91	Theo Wease Jr. thin prior (5 touches)	WR	LAC	vs DEN		3.9	-5.1	2.2	1.4	18.6	0.1	0.3
92	Calvin Ridley	WR	TEN	vs HOU		3.5	-5.6	2.3	1.3	16.5	0.1	0.1
93	Tez Johnson thin prior (22 touches)	WR	TB	@ DAL		3.5	-5.6	2.0	1.3	15.4	0.1	0.4
94	Dareke Young thin prior (2 touches)	WR	LV	@ NE		3.5	-5.6	2.0	1.3	16.1	0.1	0.1
95	Jalen Brooks thin prior (13 touches)	WR	ARI	vs DET		3.5	-5.6	2.1	1.2	16.3	0.1	0.1
96	Konata Mumpfield thin prior (12 touches)	WR	LA	vs BUF		3.4	-5.7	2.1	1.2	15.4	0.1	0.1
97	Chris Moore thin prior (18 touches)	WR	BAL	@ ATL		3.2	-5.8	2.0	1.2	15.3	0.1	0.2
98	Kyle Williams thin prior (10 touches)	WR	NE	vs LV		3.2	-5.9	1.7	1.1	15.2	0.1	0.1
99	Greg Dortch thin prior (40 touches)	WR	BUF	@ LA		3.2	-5.9	1.9	1.3	13.0	0.1	0.1
100	Marvin Mims Jr. thin prior (48 touches)	WR	DEN	@ LAC		3.0	-6.1	1.8	1.2	13.1	0.1	0.3
101	Jalen Tolbert thin prior (48 touches)	WR	MIA	vs CIN		2.9	-6.2	1.6	1.0	13.4	0.1	0.2
102	Tory Horton thin prior (11 touches)	WR	SEA	vs SF		2.8	-6.3	1.5	1.0	12.5	0.1	0.2
103	Jaylin Noel thin prior (18 touches)	WR	HOU	@ TEN		2.8	-6.3	1.6	1.0	12.8	0.1	0.5
104	Josh Cameron thin prior (0 touches)	WR	JAX	vs PHI		2.7	-6.4	1.8	1.0	12.3	0.1	0.1
105	Zachariah Branch thin prior (0 touches)	WR	ATL	vs BAL		2.6	-6.5	1.7	0.9	12.2	0.1	0.1
106	Deion Burks thin prior (0 touches)	WR	IND	@ PIT		2.6	-6.5	1.8	1.0	11.8	0.1	0.4
107	Myles Price thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIN	@ NO		2.6	-6.5	1.6	1.0	11.6	0.1	0.3
108	Cedric Tillman thin prior (43 touches)	WR	NO	vs MIN		2.5	-6.5	1.6	1.0	11.4	0.1	0.3
109	Skyler Bell thin prior (0 touches)	WR	BUF	@ LA		2.5	-6.6	1.7	1.0	11.2	0.1	0.3
110	Ben Skowronek thin prior (7 touches)	WR	PIT	vs IND		2.5	-6.6	1.3	0.9	11.6	0.1	0.2
111	KaVontae Turpin thin prior (38 touches)	WR	DAL	vs TB		2.5	-6.6	1.4	0.9	11.7	0.1	0.5
112	Malik McClain thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NYJ	vs CLE		2.4	-6.7	1.6	0.9	10.8	0.1	0.3
113	Jared Wayne thin prior (1 touches)	WR	HOU	@ TEN		2.3	-6.8	1.3	0.8	10.7	0.1	0.0
114	Elijah Moore ⚠	WR	PHI	@ JAX		2.2	-6.9	1.5	0.9	9.6	0.1	0.3
115	Isaiah Bond thin prior (22 touches)	WR	CLE	@ NYJ		2.1	-7.0	1.3	0.8	10.2	0.1	0.2
116	Charlie Jones thin prior (3 touches)	WR	NYG	@ WAS		2.1	-7.0	1.2	0.8	9.7	0.1	0.2
117	Tutu Atwell thin prior (40 touches)	WR	LA	vs BUF		2.0	-7.1	1.1	0.7	9.7	0.1	0.2
118	Bo Melton ⚠	WR	GB	vs CHI		2.0	-7.1	1.1	0.7	9.2	0.1	0.1
119	Ryan Miller thin prior (8 touches)	WR	MIA	vs CIN		1.9	-7.1	1.1	0.7	9.1	0.1	0.2
120	Jacob Cowing thin prior (2 touches)	WR	SF	@ SEA		1.9	-7.2	1.2	0.7	8.7	0.1	0.2
121	Malik Benson thin prior (0 touches)	WR	LV	@ NE		1.8	-7.2	1.2	0.7	8.4	0.1	0.2
122	Chimere Dike thin prior (37 touches)	WR	TEN	vs HOU		1.8	-7.3	1.1	0.7	7.5	0.1	0.1
123	Derius Davis thin prior (10 touches)	WR	LAC	vs DEN		1.7	-7.4	1.0	0.6	7.3	0.0	0.2
124	LaJohntay Wester thin prior (0 touches)	WR	BAL	@ ATL		1.6	-7.5	0.9	0.6	7.3	0.0	0.2
125	Zavion Thomas thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CHI	@ GB		1.6	-7.5	1.1	0.6	7.2	0.0	0.2
126	Jordan Watkins thin prior (2 touches)	WR	SF	@ SEA		1.6	-7.5	1.0	0.6	7.0	0.0	0.2
127	Simi Fehoko thin prior (5 touches)	WR	ARI	vs DET		1.6	-7.5	0.9	0.6	7.2	0.0	0.1
128	Chris Blair thin prior (1 touches)	WR	ATL	vs BAL		1.4	-7.7	0.8	0.5	6.3	0.0	0.1
129	Lil'Jordan Humphrey thin prior (30 touches)	WR	DEN	@ LAC		1.3	-7.7	0.8	0.5	5.8	0.0	0.3
130	Tom Kennedy thin prior (2 touches)	WR	DET	@ ARI		1.3	-7.8	0.8	0.5	5.9	0.0	0.1
131	Jahdae Walker thin prior (5 touches)	WR	CHI	@ GB		1.3	-7.8	0.7	0.5	5.7	0.0	0.3
132	J. Michael Sturdivant thin prior (0 touches)	WR	GB	vs CHI		1.2	-7.8	0.8	0.4	5.8	0.0	0.1
133	Luke McCaffrey thin prior (15 touches)	WR	WAS	vs NYG		1.2	-7.9	0.6	0.4	5.6	0.0	0.3
134	Nick Westbrook-Ikhine thin prior (37 touches)	WR	IND	@ PIT		1.1	-8.0	0.6	0.4	4.7	0.0	0.2
135	Dalen Cambre thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NYG	@ WAS		1.1	-8.0	0.6	0.4	4.9	0.0	0.3
136	Deven Thompkins thin prior (8 touches)	WR	LV	@ NE		1.0	-8.1	0.6	0.4	4.5	0.0	0.2
137	Jeshaun Jones thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIN	@ NO		1.0	-8.1	0.6	0.4	4.6	0.0	0.2
138	Kameron Johnson thin prior (4 touches)	WR	TB	@ DAL		1.0	-8.1	0.6	0.4	4.7	0.0	0.1
139	Travis Hunter ⚠	WR	JAX	vs PHI		1.0	-8.1	0.6	0.4	4.4	0.0	0.3
140	Jonathan Mingo thin prior (32 touches)	WR	DAL	vs TB	Q · 50%	0.7	-8.4	0.5	0.3	3.3	0.0	0.1
141	Tay Martin thin prior (2 touches)	WR	DET	@ ARI		0.6	-8.5	0.4	0.2	2.9	0.0	0.2
142	Devin Duvernay thin prior (9 touches)	WR	ARI	vs DET		0.5	-8.6	0.3	0.2	2.4	0.0	0.1
143	Malachi Corley thin prior (9 touches)	WR	CLE	@ NYJ		0.5	-8.6	0.3	0.2	2.3	0.0	0.2
144	Kaden Wetjen thin prior (0 touches)	WR	PIT	vs IND		0.5	-8.6	0.3	0.2	2.3	0.0	0.1
145	Britain Covey thin prior (6 touches)	WR	PHI	@ JAX		0.5	-8.6	0.3	0.2	2.1	0.0	0.2
146	Barion Brown thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NO	vs MIN	Q · 78%	0.4	-8.7	0.3	0.2	1.9	0.0	0.4
147	Reggie Virgil thin prior (0 touches)	WR	ARI	vs DET		0.0	-9.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
148	Tetairoa McMillan	WR	CAR	BYE	BYE	0.0	-9.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
149	Jalen Coker thin prior (35 touches)	WR	CAR	BYE	BYE	0.0	-9.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
150	Brycen Tremayne thin prior (9 touches)	WR	CAR	BYE	BYE	0.0	-9.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
151	John Metchie III thin prior (41 touches)	WR	CAR	BYE	BYE	0.0	-9.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
152	David Moore thin prior (19 touches)	WR	CAR	BYE	BYE	0.0	-9.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
153	Xavier Legette	WR	CAR	BYE	BYE	0.0	-9.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
154	Chris Brazzell II thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CAR	BYE	BYE	0.0	-9.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
155	Anthony Gould thin prior (1 touches)	WR	IND	@ PIT		0.0	-9.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
156	Rashee Rice	WR	KC	BYE	BYE	0.0	-9.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
157	Xavier Worthy	WR	KC	BYE	BYE	0.0	-9.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
158	Jalen Royals thin prior (2 touches)	WR	KC	BYE	BYE	0.0	-9.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
159	Cyrus Allen thin prior (0 touches)	WR	KC	BYE	BYE	0.0	-9.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
160	Nikko Remigio thin prior (2 touches)	WR	KC	BYE	BYE	0.0	-9.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
161	Tyquan Thornton thin prior (26 touches)	WR	KC	BYE	BYE	0.0	-9.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
162	Jeff Caldwell thin prior (0 touches)	WR	KC	BYE	BYE	0.0	-9.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
163	Jimmy Holiday thin prior (0 touches)	WR	KC	BYE	BYE	0.0	-9.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
164	Alex Bachman thin prior (2 touches)	WR	LA	vs BUF		0.0	-9.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
165	Brandon Smith thin prior (0 touches)	WR	PIT	vs IND		0.0	-9.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
166	Brandon Aiyuk thin prior (35 touches)	WR	SF	@ SEA		0.0	-9.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
167	Van Jefferson thin prior (47 touches)	WR	WAS	vs NYG		0.0	-9.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

VORP = this player's points minus the points of the last startable player at his position (hover the VORP cell to see who). Baseline rank = teams × starters, with FLEX split RB/WR/TE 45/45/10.

Known limitations

Thin priors over-projected QBs. Efficiency comes from 2023–25, regressed toward the league average by sample size. Over Weeks 1–4, QB1s whose prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted dropbacks were projected +3.9 PPR a game too high (9 QBs; established QB1s +0.1). Those rows carry a thin prior chip. From Week 7 (model n8-v3) a QB's passing rates also read his own 2026 dropbacks, weighted against the prior's sample plus a fixed anchor, so a few snaps barely move them. On Weeks 5–6 this halved the thin-QB bias. Rushing rates and the game lines still use the prior: the game-level check of the same change failed.
Team pass volume is a 2023–25 prior too; in-season, only player shares blend toward what is observed. Blending team volume in-season was tested twice and lost to the prior both times.