NFL Player Projections

Week 2 — opponent-adjusted (this week's defence, home/away), availability-weighted, byes zeroed. Components (volume × efficiency) with scoring applied as a view. Model n8-v2 · updated 39d ago.

Week: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8• Season Position: All QB RB WR TE

Scoring: PPR Half Standard DK Rank by: VORP Points ⬇ CSV

League & scoring settings — server-side, from your stored component projections; the URL is the saved config

168 players · ranked by VORP under ppr scoring, 12-team league (1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1FLEX). thin prior (n) = the efficiency prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted 2023–25 dropbacks (QB) or 55 touches (RB/WR/TE), so the league average carries about half or more of the line's efficiency; ⚠ = low-sample / rookie (archetype-driven). A designation like Q · 60% means the line is weighted by that play probability; BYE rows project 0 and are kept visible.

Replacement level (VORP is measured against these): QB12 Baker Mayfield · 17.8 pts · RB29 Omarion Hampton · 10.4 pts · WR41 KC Concepcion · 9.6 pts · TE13 Cade Otton · 8.5 pts

#	Player	Pos	Tm	Opp	Status	Pts	VORP	Tgt	Rec	RecYd	RecTD	Car
1	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	SEA	@ ARI		18.2	+8.7	9.5	6.6	87.0	0.5	0.2
2	CeeDee Lamb	WR	DAL	vs WAS		17.8	+8.2	9.2	6.1	88.8	0.5	0.6
3	Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	@ BUF		17.2	+7.6	9.4	6.6	74.1	0.5	0.2
4	Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	@ HOU		15.2	+5.6	8.7	5.9	65.8	0.4	0.2
5	DJ Moore ⚠	WR	BUF	vs DET		14.7	+5.1	8.2	5.3	67.1	0.4	0.3
6	Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	@ CHI		14.4	+4.8	8.4	5.3	69.7	0.3	0.2
7	Jaylen Waddle ⚠	WR	DEN	vs JAX		13.9	+4.3	7.5	4.9	67.9	0.4	0.2
8	Garrett Wilson	WR	NYJ	vs GB		13.7	+4.1	8.3	5.1	61.6	0.4	0.2
9	Mike Evans ⚠	WR	SF	vs MIA		13.5	+3.9	7.7	4.6	60.7	0.5	0.2
10	DeVonta Smith	WR	PHI	@ TEN		13.1	+3.5	6.9	4.7	61.7	0.4	0.2
11	Drake London	WR	ATL	vs CAR		13.1	+3.5	7.2	4.5	62.5	0.4	0.4
12	Romeo Doubs ⚠	WR	NE	vs PIT		12.8	+3.3	7.1	4.5	58.5	0.4	0.2
13	Davante Adams	WR	LA	vs NYG		12.6	+3.0	7.9	4.6	51.6	0.5	0.2
14	Parker Washington	WR	JAX	@ DEN		12.5	+2.9	7.5	4.7	56.7	0.4	0.2
15	Alec Pierce	WR	IND	@ KC		12.5	+2.9	6.8	3.9	63.3	0.4	0.2
16	Quentin Johnston	WR	LAC	vs LV		12.4	+2.9	6.7	4.1	56.8	0.4	0.2
17	Christian Watson thin prior (54 touches)	WR	GB	@ NYJ		12.3	+2.7	6.4	3.9	60.3	0.4	0.2
18	George Pickens	WR	DAL	vs WAS		11.9	+2.4	5.9	3.7	61.9	0.3	0.3
19	Xavier Hutchinson thin prior (40 touches)	WR	HOU	vs CIN		11.9	+2.3	6.9	4.2	56.0	0.4	0.2
20	Tetairoa McMillan	WR	CAR	@ ATL		11.7	+2.1	6.9	4.1	54.9	0.3	0.2
21	Michael Wilson	WR	ARI	vs SEA		11.7	+2.1	6.7	4.3	53.8	0.3	0.2
22	Terry McLaurin	WR	WAS	@ DAL		11.4	+1.8	6.4	4.1	52.0	0.3	0.2
23	Rashee Rice	WR	KC	vs IND		11.3	+1.8	6.0	4.1	51.4	0.3	0.2
24	DK Metcalf	WR	PIT	@ NE		11.2	+1.7	6.4	3.9	53.8	0.3	0.2
25	Courtland Sutton	WR	DEN	vs JAX		11.0	+1.4	6.3	3.8	50.2	0.4	0.2
26	Kayshon Boutte thin prior (45 touches)	WR	HOU	vs CIN		10.9	+1.4	5.4	3.5	53.2	0.4	0.2
27	Stefon Diggs ⚠	WR	WAS	@ DAL		10.9	+1.3	6.2	4.5	48.0	0.3	0.2
28	Jerry Jeudy	WR	CLE	@ TB		10.8	+1.3	7.1	4.1	51.9	0.3	0.2
29	Malik Washington thin prior (43 touches)	WR	MIA	@ SF		10.8	+1.2	6.8	4.6	44.4	0.3	0.3
30	Emeka Egbuka	WR	TB	vs CLE		10.8	+1.2	6.9	3.8	50.5	0.3	0.2
31	Carnell Tate thin prior (0 touches)	WR	TEN	vs PHI		10.8	+1.2	7.2	4.0	49.5	0.3	0.2
32	Malik Nabers	WR	NYG	@ LA		10.7	+1.1	6.8	4.2	47.3	0.3	0.2
33	Tee Higgins	WR	CIN	@ HOU		10.6	+1.0	6.0	3.7	45.5	0.4	0.2
34	Jameson Williams	WR	DET	@ BUF		10.5	+0.9	5.7	3.6	51.2	0.3	0.2
35	Khalil Shakir	WR	BUF	vs DET		10.2	+0.6	5.6	4.0	46.4	0.3	0.3
36	Devaughn Vele thin prior (36 touches)	WR	NO	@ BAL		10.2	+0.6	6.0	3.9	45.3	0.3	0.2
37	Jalen Coker thin prior (35 touches)	WR	CAR	@ ATL		10.1	+0.5	5.5	3.7	46.6	0.3	0.2
38	Ladd McConkey	WR	LAC	vs LV	Q · 72%	9.7	+0.1	5.2	3.4	45.5	0.3	0.2
39	Rome Odunze	WR	CHI	vs MIN		9.7	+0.1	6.2	3.4	44.6	0.3	0.2
40	Tre Tucker	WR	LV	@ LAC		9.7	+0.1	6.0	3.7	43.0	0.3	0.2
41	KC Concepcion thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CLE	@ TB		9.6	+0.0	6.4	3.6	43.8	0.3	0.9
42	Puka Nacua	WR	LA	vs NYG	Q · 50%	9.4	-0.1	4.7	3.4	46.4	0.2	0.1
43	Xavier Worthy	WR	KC	vs IND		9.4	-0.2	5.7	3.4	44.0	0.3	0.2
44	Jalen Nailor thin prior (40 touches)	WR	LV	@ LAC		9.4	-0.2	5.5	3.3	42.2	0.3	0.2
45	Jayden Reed thin prior (52 touches)	WR	GB	@ NYJ		9.4	-0.2	4.8	3.3	43.9	0.3	0.3
46	DeMario Douglas	WR	NE	vs PIT		9.1	-0.5	5.2	3.5	42.4	0.2	0.2
47	Brian Thomas Jr.	WR	JAX	@ DEN		9.1	-0.5	5.5	3.3	42.7	0.2	0.2
48	Chris Olave	WR	NO	@ BAL	Q · 72%	9.1	-0.5	5.4	3.5	40.5	0.3	0.1
49	Josh Downs	WR	IND	@ KC		9.1	-0.5	5.6	3.7	39.1	0.2	0.2
50	Devontez Walker thin prior (5 touches)	WR	BAL	vs NO		9.0	-0.6	4.8	3.1	41.6	0.3	0.3
51	Luther Burden III thin prior (30 touches)	WR	CHI	vs MIN		9.0	-0.6	5.0	3.4	42.3	0.2	0.4
52	Caleb Douglas thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIA	@ SF		8.8	-0.8	6.0	3.3	40.1	0.2	0.2
53	Rashod Bateman thin prior (52 touches)	WR	BAL	vs NO		8.8	-0.8	5.0	3.0	40.5	0.3	0.2
54	Deebo Samuel Sr.	WR	SF	vs MIA		8.8	-0.8	4.8	3.2	40.6	0.3	0.6
55	Jahan Dotson thin prior (44 touches)	WR	ATL	vs CAR		8.6	-0.9	5.2	3.1	41.1	0.2	0.2
56	Chris Godwin Jr.	WR	TB	vs CLE		8.6	-1.0	5.2	3.4	38.5	0.2	0.5
57	Kalif Raymond thin prior (30 touches)	WR	CHI	vs MIN		8.4	-1.2	4.9	3.4	37.3	0.2	0.3
58	Dontayvion Wicks ⚠	WR	PHI	@ TEN		8.4	-1.2	4.9	3.0	37.8	0.3	0.2
59	Wan'Dale Robinson ⚠	WR	TEN	vs PHI		8.2	-1.4	5.3	3.5	35.4	0.2	0.2
60	Roman Wilson thin prior (10 touches)	WR	PIT	@ NE		8.1	-1.5	4.7	2.9	36.7	0.2	0.2
61	Tre Harris thin prior (22 touches)	WR	LAC	vs LV		8.0	-1.5	4.6	3.0	37.6	0.2	0.2
62	Jordan Addison	WR	MIN	@ CHI		7.9	-1.6	4.6	2.8	36.2	0.3	0.2
63	Rashid Shaheed	WR	SEA	@ ARI		7.9	-1.7	4.7	2.9	37.5	0.2	0.2
64	Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	ARI	vs SEA		7.6	-2.0	4.5	2.6	35.3	0.2	0.2
65	Malachi Fields thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NYG	@ LA		7.3	-2.2	5.1	2.8	33.0	0.2	0.2
66	Adonai Mitchell thin prior (54 touches)	WR	NYJ	vs GB		7.3	-2.3	4.8	2.6	35.1	0.2	0.2
67	Ryan Flournoy thin prior (32 touches)	WR	DAL	vs WAS		7.2	-2.4	3.8	2.5	34.0	0.2	0.3
68	Kendrick Bourne thin prior (49 touches)	WR	ARI	vs SEA		7.2	-2.4	4.2	2.8	33.8	0.2	0.2
69	Konata Mumpfield thin prior (12 touches)	WR	LA	vs NYG		7.1	-2.5	4.2	2.5	32.5	0.2	0.2
70	Matthew Golden thin prior (22 touches)	WR	GB	@ NYJ		7.1	-2.5	4.2	2.7	33.5	0.2	0.2
71	Pat Bryant thin prior (24 touches)	WR	DEN	vs JAX		6.6	-3.0	3.8	2.4	31.4	0.2	0.2
72	Denzel Boston thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CLE	@ TB		6.3	-3.3	4.2	2.3	28.7	0.2	0.2
73	Keenan Allen ⚠	WR	IND	@ KC		6.0	-3.6	4.2	2.7	23.7	0.2	0.2
74	Jaylin Noel thin prior (18 touches)	WR	HOU	vs CIN		5.8	-3.8	3.1	2.0	27.1	0.2	0.2
75	Mack Hollins thin prior (54 touches)	WR	NE	vs PIT		5.6	-4.0	3.3	2.2	25.0	0.1	0.2
76	Andrei Iosivas thin prior (52 touches)	WR	CIN	@ HOU		5.5	-4.0	3.5	2.1	24.1	0.2	0.2
77	Antonio Williams thin prior (0 touches)	WR	WAS	@ DAL		5.3	-4.3	3.5	1.9	24.5	0.2	0.2
78	Jack Bech thin prior (14 touches)	WR	LV	@ LAC		5.3	-4.3	3.3	2.1	23.9	0.1	0.2
79	Makai Lemon thin prior (0 touches)	WR	PHI	@ TEN		5.2	-4.4	3.4	1.9	24.3	0.2	0.2
80	Jakobi Meyers	WR	JAX	@ DEN		5.2	-4.4	3.2	2.2	22.8	0.1	0.4
81	Tai Felton thin prior (2 touches)	WR	MIN	@ CHI		5.2	-4.4	3.1	2.0	23.6	0.1	0.3
82	Tyquan Thornton thin prior (26 touches)	WR	KC	vs IND		5.2	-4.4	2.8	1.7	25.8	0.2	0.2
83	Xavier Legette	WR	CAR	@ ATL		5.2	-4.4	3.3	2.0	22.3	0.2	0.2
84	Cooper Kupp	WR	SEA	@ ARI		5.1	-4.5	3.1	2.0	22.6	0.1	0.2
85	Barion Brown thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NO	@ BAL		4.9	-4.7	3.4	1.9	22.3	0.1	0.4
86	Demarcus Robinson thin prior (44 touches)	WR	SF	vs MIA		4.9	-4.7	2.8	1.7	22.5	0.2	0.2
87	Olamide Zaccheaus ⚠	WR	ATL	vs CAR		4.9	-4.7	2.9	1.8	21.8	0.1	0.2
88	Isaiah Williams thin prior (19 touches)	WR	NYJ	vs GB		4.9	-4.7	2.9	1.9	21.8	0.1	0.2
89	Chris Moore thin prior (18 touches)	WR	BAL	vs NO		4.8	-4.8	2.9	1.8	23.0	0.1	0.2
90	Germie Bernard thin prior (0 touches)	WR	PIT	@ NE		4.8	-4.8	3.2	1.8	22.0	0.1	0.3
91	Keon Coleman thin prior (47 touches)	WR	BUF	vs DET		4.8	-4.8	2.8	1.7	21.9	0.2	0.3
92	Chris Bell thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIA	@ SF		4.6	-4.9	3.1	1.7	21.1	0.1	0.2
93	Isaac TeSlaa thin prior (14 touches)	WR	DET	@ BUF		4.5	-5.0	2.6	1.6	19.8	0.2	0.2
94	Calvin Ridley	WR	TEN	vs PHI		4.5	-5.0	3.0	1.7	21.5	0.1	0.2
95	Darnell Mooney ⚠	WR	NYG	@ LA		4.5	-5.0	3.0	1.7	21.6	0.1	0.2
96	Jalen McMillan thin prior (25 touches)	WR	TB	vs CLE	Q · 78%	4.4	-5.1	2.5	1.6	19.9	0.1	0.2
97	Troy Franklin	WR	DEN	vs JAX		3.9	-5.7	2.3	1.4	17.0	0.1	0.6
98	Ted Hurst III thin prior (0 touches)	WR	TB	vs CLE		3.8	-5.8	2.6	1.4	17.0	0.1	0.2
99	KaVontae Turpin thin prior (38 touches)	WR	DAL	vs WAS		3.5	-6.1	1.8	1.2	17.1	0.1	0.4
100	Xavier Smith thin prior (13 touches)	WR	LA	vs NYG		3.4	-6.2	1.8	1.2	16.8	0.1	0.2
101	Tutu Atwell thin prior (40 touches)	WR	LA	vs NYG		3.1	-6.4	1.8	1.1	15.7	0.1	0.3
102	Bryce Lance thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NO	@ BAL		3.1	-6.5	2.1	1.2	14.0	0.1	0.2
103	Brenen Thompson thin prior (0 touches)	WR	LAC	vs LV		3.0	-6.6	1.9	1.1	14.1	0.1	0.3
104	Jared Wayne thin prior (1 touches)	WR	HOU	vs CIN		2.9	-6.7	1.6	1.0	13.7	0.1	0.2
105	Josh Cameron thin prior (0 touches)	WR	JAX	@ DEN		2.9	-6.7	2.0	1.1	12.8	0.1	0.2
106	Josh Palmer thin prior (50 touches)	WR	BUF	vs DET		2.7	-6.9	1.6	1.0	13.4	0.1	0.3
107	Tory Horton thin prior (11 touches)	WR	SEA	@ ARI		2.6	-7.0	1.4	0.9	11.3	0.1	0.3
108	Dyami Brown thin prior (35 touches)	WR	WAS	@ DAL		2.6	-7.0	1.6	1.0	11.8	0.1	0.2
109	Arian Smith thin prior (8 touches)	WR	NYJ	vs GB		2.6	-7.0	1.5	0.9	11.8	0.1	0.2
110	Jalen Brooks thin prior (13 touches)	WR	ARI	vs SEA		2.5	-7.0	1.5	0.9	11.8	0.1	0.2
111	Colbie Young thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CIN	@ HOU		2.5	-7.0	1.8	1.0	11.2	0.1	0.2
112	Cyrus Allen thin prior (0 touches)	WR	KC	vs IND		2.5	-7.1	1.6	0.9	11.9	0.1	0.2
113	Isaiah Bond thin prior (22 touches)	WR	CLE	@ TB		2.5	-7.1	1.6	0.9	11.9	0.1	0.3
114	Kevin Coleman Jr. thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIA	@ SF		2.5	-7.1	1.7	0.9	11.2	0.1	0.2
115	Laquon Treadwell thin prior (1 touches)	WR	IND	@ KC		2.5	-7.1	1.5	1.0	10.8	0.1	0.2
116	Ben Skowronek thin prior (7 touches)	WR	PIT	@ NE		2.5	-7.1	1.4	0.9	11.2	0.1	0.3
117	Malik Benson thin prior (0 touches)	WR	LV	@ LAC		2.4	-7.2	1.7	0.9	10.7	0.1	0.3
118	Zavion Thomas thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CHI	vs MIN		2.4	-7.2	1.6	0.9	10.8	0.1	0.3
119	Skyy Moore thin prior (12 touches)	WR	GB	@ NYJ		2.4	-7.2	1.4	0.9	11.2	0.1	0.2
120	Chimere Dike thin prior (37 touches)	WR	TEN	vs PHI		2.4	-7.2	1.5	0.9	10.1	0.1	0.2
121	Elic Ayomanor thin prior (44 touches)	WR	TEN	vs PHI		2.4	-7.2	1.6	0.9	10.7	0.1	0.2
122	Elijah Sarratt thin prior (0 touches)	WR	BAL	vs NO		2.1	-7.4	1.4	0.8	10.0	0.1	0.3
123	Brycen Tremayne thin prior (9 touches)	WR	CAR	@ ATL		2.1	-7.4	1.2	0.8	9.8	0.1	0.2
124	Jacob Cowing thin prior (2 touches)	WR	SF	vs MIA		2.1	-7.5	1.2	0.7	10.2	0.1	0.2
125	Odell Beckham Jr. thin prior (18 touches)	WR	NYG	@ LA		2.1	-7.5	1.5	0.9	9.0	0.1	0.2
126	Kyle Williams thin prior (10 touches)	WR	NE	vs PIT		2.0	-7.5	1.1	0.7	9.5	0.1	0.2
127	Tom Kennedy thin prior (2 touches)	WR	DET	@ BUF		2.0	-7.6	1.2	0.8	8.8	0.1	0.2
128	Myles Price thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIN	@ CHI		1.9	-7.7	1.1	0.7	8.8	0.1	0.2
129	Tez Johnson thin prior (22 touches)	WR	TB	vs CLE		1.9	-7.7	1.1	0.7	8.2	0.1	0.5
130	Zachariah Branch thin prior (0 touches)	WR	ATL	vs CAR		1.9	-7.7	1.2	0.6	8.8	0.1	0.2
131	Darius Cooper thin prior (6 touches)	WR	PHI	@ TEN		1.8	-7.8	1.0	0.7	8.5	0.1	0.2
132	Travis Hunter ⚠	WR	JAX	@ DEN		1.6	-8.0	1.0	0.6	7.1	0.0	0.4
133	LaJohntay Wester thin prior (0 touches)	WR	BAL	vs NO		1.6	-8.0	0.9	0.6	7.3	0.0	0.2
134	Derius Davis thin prior (10 touches)	WR	LAC	vs LV		1.6	-8.0	0.9	0.6	7.0	0.0	0.2
135	Lil'Jordan Humphrey thin prior (30 touches)	WR	DEN	vs JAX		1.4	-8.2	0.8	0.5	6.2	0.0	0.3
136	Kevin Austin Jr. thin prior (18 touches)	WR	NO	@ BAL		1.4	-8.2	0.8	0.5	6.1	0.0	0.2
137	Jonathan Mingo thin prior (32 touches)	WR	DAL	vs WAS		1.3	-8.3	0.8	0.5	6.1	0.0	0.3
138	Jahdae Walker thin prior (5 touches)	WR	CHI	vs MIN		1.2	-8.3	0.7	0.5	5.6	0.0	0.3
139	Bo Melton ⚠	WR	GB	@ NYJ		1.2	-8.4	0.7	0.4	5.7	0.0	0.2
140	Jaylin Lane thin prior (16 touches)	WR	WAS	@ DAL		1.2	-8.4	0.7	0.4	5.7	0.0	0.2
141	Tylan Wallace thin prior (8 touches)	WR	CLE	@ TB		1.2	-8.4	0.7	0.4	5.5	0.0	0.3
142	Lewis Bond thin prior (0 touches)	WR	HOU	vs CIN		1.1	-8.4	0.7	0.4	5.4	0.0	0.3
143	Dohnte Meyers thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CIN	@ HOU		1.1	-8.5	0.8	0.4	4.9	0.0	0.4
144	Efton Chism III thin prior (2 touches)	WR	NE	vs PIT		1.1	-8.5	0.6	0.4	5.1	0.0	0.3
145	John Metchie III thin prior (41 touches)	WR	CAR	@ ATL		1.1	-8.5	0.7	0.4	4.6	0.0	0.3
146	Ryan Miller thin prior (8 touches)	WR	MIA	@ SF		1.0	-8.5	0.6	0.4	4.6	0.0	0.3
147	Deion Burks thin prior (0 touches)	WR	IND	@ KC		1.0	-8.6	0.7	0.4	4.3	0.0	0.3
148	Jalen Royals thin prior (2 touches)	WR	KC	vs IND		0.9	-8.7	0.5	0.3	4.3	0.0	0.2
149	Marquise Brown ⚠	WR	PHI	@ TEN		0.9	-8.7	0.5	0.3	4.2	0.0	0.3
150	Simi Fehoko thin prior (5 touches)	WR	ARI	vs SEA		0.8	-8.7	0.5	0.3	3.9	0.0	0.2
151	Dillon Bell thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIN	@ CHI		0.8	-8.7	0.6	0.3	3.9	0.0	0.3
152	Tay Martin thin prior (2 touches)	WR	DET	@ BUF		0.8	-8.7	0.5	0.3	3.8	0.0	0.2
153	Chris Blair thin prior (1 touches)	WR	ATL	vs CAR		0.8	-8.8	0.5	0.3	4.0	0.0	0.2
154	Dareke Young thin prior (2 touches)	WR	LV	@ LAC		0.8	-8.8	0.5	0.3	3.7	0.0	0.2
155	KhaDarel Hodge thin prior (13 touches)	WR	SF	vs MIA		0.8	-8.8	0.5	0.3	3.7	0.0	0.2
156	Kaden Wetjen thin prior (0 touches)	WR	PIT	@ NE		0.7	-8.9	0.5	0.3	3.2	0.0	0.2
157	Cody White thin prior (3 touches)	WR	LV	@ LAC		0.4	-9.2	0.2	0.1	1.6	0.0	0.0
158	Devin Duvernay thin prior (9 touches)	WR	ARI	vs SEA		0.0	-9.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
159	Malachi Corley thin prior (9 touches)	WR	CLE	@ TB		0.0	-9.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
160	Camden Brown thin prior (0 touches)	WR	DAL	vs WAS		0.0	-9.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
161	J. Michael Sturdivant thin prior (0 touches)	WR	GB	@ NYJ		0.0	-9.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
162	Anthony Gould thin prior (1 touches)	WR	IND	@ KC		0.0	-9.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
163	Nikko Remigio thin prior (2 touches)	WR	KC	vs IND		0.0	-9.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
164	Gary Jennings thin prior (0 touches)	WR	LAC	vs LV		0.0	-9.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
165	Britain Covey thin prior (6 touches)	WR	PHI	@ TEN		0.0	-9.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
166	Brandon Aiyuk thin prior (35 touches)	WR	SF	vs MIA		0.0	-9.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
167	Kameron Johnson thin prior (4 touches)	WR	TB	vs CLE		0.0	-9.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
168	Treylon Burks thin prior (19 touches)	WR	WAS	@ DAL		0.0	-9.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

VORP = this player's points minus the points of the last startable player at his position (hover the VORP cell to see who). Baseline rank = teams × starters, with FLEX split RB/WR/TE 45/45/10.

Known limitations

Thin priors over-projected QBs. Efficiency comes from 2023–25, regressed toward the league average by sample size. Over Weeks 1–4, QB1s whose prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted dropbacks were projected +3.9 PPR a game too high (9 QBs; established QB1s +0.1). Those rows carry a thin prior chip. From Week 7 (model n8-v3) a QB's passing rates also read his own 2026 dropbacks, weighted against the prior's sample plus a fixed anchor, so a few snaps barely move them. On Weeks 5–6 this halved the thin-QB bias. Rushing rates and the game lines still use the prior: the game-level check of the same change failed.
Team pass volume is a 2023–25 prior too; in-season, only player shares blend toward what is observed. Blending team volume in-season was tested twice and lost to the prior both times.