NFL Player Projections

Week 7 — opponent-adjusted (this week's defence, home/away), availability-weighted, byes zeroed. Components (volume × efficiency) with scoring applied as a view. Model n8-v3 · updated 4d ago.

Week: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8• Season Position: All QB RB WR TE

Scoring: PPR Half Standard DK Rank by: VORP Points ⬇ CSV

League & scoring settings — server-side, from your stored component projections; the URL is the saved config

172 players · ranked by VORP under half_ppr scoring, 12-team league (1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1FLEX). thin prior (n) = the efficiency prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted 2023–25 dropbacks (QB) or 55 touches (RB/WR/TE), so the league average carries about half or more of the line's efficiency; ⚠ = low-sample / rookie (archetype-driven). A designation like Q · 60% means the line is weighted by that play probability; BYE rows project 0 and are kept visible.

Replacement level (VORP is measured against these): QB12 Patrick Mahomes · 16.8 pts · RB29 RJ Harvey · 8.2 pts · WR41 Kendrick Bourne · 7.4 pts · TE13 Kyle Pitts · 6.7 pts

#	Player	Pos	Tm	Opp	Status	Pts	VORP	Tgt	Rec	RecYd	RecTD	Car
1	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	SEA	vs KC		14.9	+7.5	9.4	6.6	86.8	0.5	0.2
2	Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	vs GB		14.7	+7.3	9.1	6.4	80.1	0.6	0.1
3	CeeDee Lamb	WR	DAL	@ PHI		12.9	+5.6	9.5	6.3	74.6	0.4	0.4
4	Drake London	WR	ATL	vs SF		12.4	+5.0	8.5	5.3	70.8	0.4	0.3
5	A.J. Brown ⚠	WR	NE	@ CHI		11.9	+4.5	8.0	5.2	68.2	0.4	0.2
6	Chris Olave	WR	NO	vs PIT		11.9	+4.5	8.4	5.4	67.0	0.4	0.1
7	Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	@ BAL		11.6	+4.3	8.1	5.5	63.5	0.4	0.1
8	Zay Flowers	WR	BAL	vs CIN		11.6	+4.2	7.2	4.9	70.4	0.4	0.5
9	Nico Collins	WR	HOU	vs NYG		11.5	+4.1	6.9	4.4	68.6	0.4	0.5
10	Jaylen Waddle ⚠	WR	DEN	@ ARI		11.1	+3.8	7.5	4.9	65.5	0.4	0.3
11	Michael Wilson	WR	ARI	vs DEN		11.1	+3.7	7.8	4.9	62.0	0.4	0.1
12	Tetairoa McMillan	WR	CAR	vs TB		10.7	+3.3	7.3	4.4	61.3	0.4	0.1
13	Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	vs IND		10.6	+3.2	7.1	4.5	64.1	0.3	0.2
14	Tee Higgins	WR	CIN	@ BAL		10.3	+3.0	6.9	4.3	54.5	0.5	0.1
15	Carnell Tate thin prior (0 touches)	WR	TEN	vs CLE		10.0	+2.7	8.4	4.7	56.1	0.3	0.1
16	Garrett Wilson	WR	NYJ	vs MIA		9.9	+2.5	7.1	4.4	55.3	0.4	0.2
17	George Pickens	WR	DAL	@ PHI		9.7	+2.3	6.7	4.2	56.9	0.3	0.1
18	DK Metcalf	WR	PIT	@ NO		9.7	+2.3	6.8	4.1	55.4	0.3	0.2
19	Malik Nabers	WR	NYG	@ HOU		9.4	+2.0	7.5	4.6	51.1	0.3	0.1
20	Luther Burden III thin prior (30 touches)	WR	CHI	vs NE		9.3	+2.0	6.0	4.1	55.6	0.3	0.8
21	Jalen Coker thin prior (35 touches)	WR	CAR	vs TB		9.3	+1.9	6.0	4.0	53.7	0.3	0.1
22	Malik Washington thin prior (43 touches)	WR	MIA	@ NYJ		9.2	+1.9	7.1	4.8	48.8	0.3	0.8
23	Denzel Boston thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CLE	@ TEN		8.9	+1.5	7.1	3.9	50.5	0.3	0.1
24	Chris Godwin Jr.	WR	TB	@ CAR		8.9	+1.5	6.4	4.2	49.9	0.3	0.4
25	Christian Watson thin prior (54 touches)	WR	GB	@ DET		8.7	+1.4	5.7	3.5	50.3	0.3	0.1
26	Makai Lemon thin prior (0 touches)	WR	PHI	vs DAL		8.7	+1.3	6.7	3.7	49.9	0.3	0.3
27	Xavier Worthy	WR	KC	@ SEA		8.7	+1.3	7.1	4.3	47.9	0.3	0.1
28	Konata Mumpfield thin prior (12 touches)	WR	LA	@ LV		8.5	+1.1	6.5	3.9	46.6	0.3	0.2
29	Jordan Addison	WR	MIN	vs IND		8.3	+1.0	5.5	3.3	47.1	0.3	0.2
30	Jameson Williams	WR	DET	vs GB		8.3	+0.9	5.0	3.1	49.9	0.3	0.1
31	Devaughn Vele thin prior (36 touches)	WR	NO	vs PIT		8.3	+0.9	5.7	3.7	46.4	0.3	0.1
32	Rome Odunze	WR	CHI	vs NE		8.2	+0.8	5.9	3.3	46.6	0.3	0.2
33	Josh Downs	WR	IND	@ MIN		8.0	+0.6	6.5	4.3	42.5	0.3	0.2
34	Courtland Sutton	WR	DEN	@ ARI		7.8	+0.4	5.5	3.4	42.9	0.3	0.1
35	Wan'Dale Robinson ⚠	WR	TEN	vs CLE		7.8	+0.4	6.5	4.3	42.7	0.2	0.2
36	Puka Nacua	WR	LA	@ LV	Q · 50%	7.7	+0.3	4.9	3.5	45.2	0.2	0.3
37	KC Concepcion thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CLE	@ TEN		7.6	+0.3	6.1	3.4	43.4	0.3	0.6
38	Matthew Golden thin prior (22 touches)	WR	GB	@ DET		7.5	+0.1	5.7	3.7	43.0	0.2	0.2
39	Tre Tucker	WR	LV	vs LA		7.5	+0.1	5.4	3.3	41.7	0.3	0.3
40	Christian Kirk ⚠	WR	SF	@ ATL	Q · 78%	7.4	+0.0	5.9	3.6	41.8	0.2	0.2
41	Kendrick Bourne thin prior (49 touches)	WR	ARI	vs DEN		7.4	+0.0	5.4	3.6	43.1	0.2	0.1
42	Ted Hurst III thin prior (0 touches)	WR	TB	@ CAR		7.0	-0.3	5.7	3.2	39.8	0.2	0.1
43	DeMario Douglas	WR	NE	@ CHI		7.0	-0.4	5.1	3.4	39.3	0.2	0.1
44	Caleb Douglas thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIA	@ NYJ		6.8	-0.6	5.4	3.0	38.5	0.2	0.2
45	Keenan Allen ⚠	WR	IND	@ MIN		6.7	-0.7	6.3	4.1	33.7	0.2	0.1
46	Jalen Nailor thin prior (40 touches)	WR	LV	vs LA		6.6	-0.8	4.4	2.7	36.6	0.3	0.1
47	Jahan Dotson thin prior (44 touches)	WR	ATL	vs SF		6.4	-1.0	4.8	2.8	36.5	0.2	0.1
48	Germie Bernard thin prior (0 touches)	WR	PIT	@ NO		6.4	-1.0	5.4	3.0	35.4	0.2	0.2
49	Omar Cooper Jr. thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NYJ	vs MIA		6.2	-1.2	4.7	2.6	35.7	0.2	0.3
50	Rashid Shaheed	WR	SEA	vs KC		6.1	-1.2	4.4	2.7	35.5	0.2	0.5
51	Kalif Raymond thin prior (30 touches)	WR	CHI	vs NE		6.0	-1.3	4.2	2.9	34.6	0.2	0.2
52	Ryan Flournoy thin prior (32 touches)	WR	DAL	@ PHI		6.0	-1.4	4.5	3.0	32.9	0.2	0.1
53	Marvin Harrison Jr. ⚠	WR	HOU	vs NYG		5.8	-1.6	3.9	2.3	33.2	0.2	0.2
54	Darius Cooper thin prior (6 touches)	WR	PHI	vs DAL		5.8	-1.6	3.9	2.5	33.5	0.2	0.1
55	Brandin Cooks thin prior (50 touches)	WR	SF	@ ATL		5.5	-1.9	4.4	2.7	29.4	0.2	0.2
56	Jerry Jeudy	WR	CLE	@ TEN		5.5	-1.9	4.3	2.5	32.7	0.2	0.1
57	Rashod Bateman thin prior (52 touches)	WR	BAL	vs CIN		5.4	-2.0	3.5	2.1	30.5	0.2	0.1
58	Jalen Royals thin prior (2 touches)	WR	KC	@ SEA		5.2	-2.2	4.0	2.5	28.4	0.2	0.1
59	Adonai Mitchell thin prior (54 touches)	WR	NYJ	vs MIA		5.2	-2.2	4.0	2.1	30.4	0.2	0.3
60	Xavier Hutchinson thin prior (40 touches)	WR	HOU	vs NYG		5.0	-2.3	3.7	2.2	28.6	0.2	0.5
61	Isaac TeSlaa thin prior (14 touches)	WR	DET	vs GB		4.8	-2.5	3.1	1.9	26.1	0.2	0.1
62	Malachi Fields thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NYG	@ HOU		4.8	-2.6	4.2	2.3	26.5	0.2	0.1
63	Jordan Whittington thin prior (21 touches)	WR	LA	@ LV		4.8	-2.6	3.5	2.3	27.5	0.1	0.2
64	Cooper Kupp	WR	SEA	vs KC		4.6	-2.8	3.5	2.3	25.2	0.2	0.1
65	Jaylin Noel thin prior (18 touches)	WR	HOU	vs NYG		4.5	-2.9	3.0	2.0	25.4	0.2	0.7
66	Efton Chism III thin prior (2 touches)	WR	NE	@ CHI		4.5	-2.9	3.1	2.0	25.4	0.2	0.2
67	Marquise Brown ⚠	WR	PHI	vs DAL		4.3	-3.1	3.0	1.8	24.1	0.2	0.6
68	Jordan Watkins thin prior (2 touches)	WR	SF	@ ATL		4.3	-3.1	3.1	2.0	24.4	0.1	0.2
69	Laquon Treadwell thin prior (1 touches)	WR	IND	@ MIN		4.3	-3.1	3.5	2.2	23.2	0.1	0.1
70	Tez Johnson thin prior (22 touches)	WR	TB	@ CAR		4.2	-3.2	2.9	1.8	22.7	0.2	0.3
71	Dohnte Meyers thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CIN	@ BAL		4.1	-3.2	3.5	1.9	23.1	0.1	0.2
72	Chris Bell thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIA	@ NYJ		4.1	-3.3	3.3	1.8	23.3	0.1	0.2
73	Bryce Lance thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NO	vs PIT		4.0	-3.4	3.2	1.8	22.6	0.1	0.1
74	Ja'Kobi Lane thin prior (0 touches)	WR	BAL	vs CIN		4.0	-3.4	3.0	1.7	22.8	0.1	0.2
75	Savion Williams thin prior (5 touches)	WR	GB	@ DET		3.9	-3.4	2.9	1.9	21.5	0.1	0.5
76	Cody White thin prior (3 touches)	WR	LV	vs LA		3.9	-3.4	2.7	1.7	22.7	0.1	0.1
77	Kevin Coleman Jr. thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIA	@ NYJ		3.8	-3.6	3.0	1.7	21.4	0.1	0.2
78	Elic Ayomanor thin prior (44 touches)	WR	TEN	vs CLE		3.5	-3.9	2.9	1.6	19.0	0.1	0.1
79	Cyrus Allen thin prior (0 touches)	WR	KC	@ SEA		3.5	-3.9	3.0	1.7	19.2	0.1	0.1
80	Darnell Mooney ⚠	WR	NYG	@ HOU		3.5	-3.9	2.9	1.6	20.0	0.1	0.3
81	Jalen Brooks thin prior (13 touches)	WR	ARI	vs DEN		3.4	-4.0	2.6	1.5	19.6	0.1	0.1
82	Tutu Atwell thin prior (40 touches)	WR	LA	@ LV		3.4	-4.0	2.4	1.5	20.1	0.1	0.2
83	Brycen Tremayne thin prior (9 touches)	WR	CAR	vs TB		3.3	-4.1	2.3	1.5	19.0	0.1	0.1
84	Troy Franklin	WR	DEN	@ ARI		3.3	-4.1	2.5	1.5	17.5	0.1	0.3
85	Jauan Jennings ⚠	WR	MIN	vs IND		3.2	-4.1	2.1	1.3	17.6	0.1	0.1
86	Kayshon Boutte thin prior (45 touches)	WR	HOU	vs NYG		3.2	-4.2	2.0	1.3	18.6	0.1	0.0
87	Marvin Mims Jr. thin prior (48 touches)	WR	DEN	@ ARI		3.2	-4.2	2.2	1.5	18.0	0.1	0.3
88	Zachariah Branch thin prior (0 touches)	WR	ATL	vs SF		3.2	-4.2	2.5	1.4	18.1	0.1	0.1
89	John Metchie III thin prior (41 touches)	WR	CAR	vs TB		2.8	-4.6	2.1	1.3	15.5	0.1	0.1
90	Ashton Dulin thin prior (7 touches)	WR	IND	@ MIN		2.8	-4.6	2.2	1.3	15.8	0.1	0.1
91	Isaiah Bond thin prior (22 touches)	WR	CLE	@ TEN		2.7	-4.6	2.1	1.2	16.2	0.1	0.2
92	Tim Patrick thin prior (25 touches)	WR	NYJ	vs MIA		2.7	-4.7	1.8	1.2	14.7	0.1	0.3
93	Tory Horton thin prior (11 touches)	WR	SEA	vs KC		2.7	-4.7	1.8	1.1	14.2	0.1	0.1
94	Kyle Williams thin prior (10 touches)	WR	NE	@ CHI		2.5	-4.9	1.7	1.0	13.8	0.1	0.1
95	Reggie Virgil thin prior (0 touches)	WR	ARI	vs DEN		2.4	-5.0	2.0	1.1	13.7	0.1	0.2
96	David Sills thin prior (18 touches)	WR	TB	@ CAR		2.4	-5.0	1.9	1.1	13.1	0.1	0.3
97	Devontez Walker thin prior (5 touches)	WR	BAL	vs CIN		2.3	-5.1	1.4	0.9	13.0	0.1	0.1
98	Tai Felton thin prior (2 touches)	WR	MIN	vs IND		2.3	-5.1	1.6	1.0	13.1	0.1	0.1
99	Isaiah Williams thin prior (19 touches)	WR	NYJ	vs MIA		2.2	-5.2	1.6	1.0	12.3	0.1	0.5
100	Elijah Moore ⚠	WR	PHI	vs DAL		2.1	-5.3	1.7	1.0	12.2	0.1	0.3
101	Jared Wayne thin prior (1 touches)	WR	MIA	@ NYJ		2.1	-5.3	1.5	0.9	11.8	0.1	0.2
102	Tank Dell thin prior (39 touches)	WR	HOU	vs NYG	Q · 78%	2.0	-5.4	1.3	0.8	11.6	0.1	0.3
103	Chimere Dike thin prior (37 touches)	WR	TEN	vs CLE		1.9	-5.5	1.5	1.0	10.2	0.1	0.1
104	Jacob Cowing thin prior (2 touches)	WR	SF	@ ATL		1.9	-5.5	1.3	0.8	10.6	0.1	0.2
105	Mitchell Tinsley thin prior (12 touches)	WR	CIN	@ BAL		1.8	-5.5	1.4	0.8	10.1	0.1	0.2
106	Colbie Young thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CIN	@ BAL		1.7	-5.6	1.5	0.8	9.7	0.1	0.2
107	Jonathan Mingo thin prior (32 touches)	WR	DAL	@ PHI		1.7	-5.7	1.6	0.9	9.6	0.1	0.2
108	Brandon Aiyuk thin prior (35 touches)	WR	SF	@ ATL		1.7	-5.7	1.1	0.7	10.2	0.1	0.3
109	Zavion Thomas thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CHI	vs NE		1.6	-5.8	1.2	0.7	9.0	0.1	0.3
110	Myles Price thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIN	vs IND		1.6	-5.8	1.1	0.7	9.0	0.1	0.2
111	Kaden Wetjen thin prior (0 touches)	WR	PIT	@ NO		1.6	-5.8	1.3	0.7	8.7	0.1	0.1
112	Chris Blair thin prior (1 touches)	WR	ATL	vs SF		1.6	-5.8	1.1	0.7	8.9	0.1	0.1
113	Lil'Jordan Humphrey thin prior (30 touches)	WR	DEN	@ ARI		1.5	-5.8	1.1	0.7	8.5	0.1	0.2
114	Charlie Jones thin prior (3 touches)	WR	NYG	@ HOU		1.5	-5.9	1.1	0.7	8.0	0.1	0.2
115	Brandon Smith thin prior (0 touches)	WR	PIT	@ NO		1.4	-6.0	1.2	0.7	8.0	0.0	0.2
116	Dareke Young thin prior (2 touches)	WR	LV	vs LA		1.3	-6.0	0.9	0.6	7.7	0.0	0.1
117	CJ Daniels thin prior (0 touches)	WR	LA	@ LV		1.3	-6.1	1.1	0.6	7.4	0.0	0.4
118	Andrew Armstrong thin prior (0 touches)	WR	KC	@ SEA		1.2	-6.2	1.1	0.6	6.8	0.0	0.2
119	Tay Martin thin prior (2 touches)	WR	DET	vs GB		1.1	-6.2	0.8	0.5	6.5	0.0	0.1
120	Malik Benson thin prior (0 touches)	WR	LV	vs LA		1.1	-6.3	0.9	0.5	6.3	0.0	0.2
121	Deion Burks thin prior (0 touches)	WR	IND	@ MIN		1.1	-6.3	1.0	0.5	5.9	0.0	0.4
122	Bo Melton ⚠	WR	GB	@ DET	Q · 72%	1.1	-6.3	0.8	0.5	5.9	0.0	0.1
123	Barion Brown thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NO	vs PIT		1.1	-6.3	0.8	0.5	5.9	0.0	0.4
124	J. Michael Sturdivant thin prior (0 touches)	WR	GB	@ DET		1.0	-6.3	0.9	0.5	5.8	0.0	0.1
125	Nikko Remigio thin prior (2 touches)	WR	KC	@ SEA		1.0	-6.4	0.8	0.5	5.7	0.0	0.1
126	David Moore thin prior (19 touches)	WR	CAR	vs TB		1.0	-6.4	0.7	0.5	5.6	0.0	0.2
127	Jahdae Walker thin prior (5 touches)	WR	CHI	vs NE		0.9	-6.4	0.6	0.4	5.3	0.0	0.2
128	Tylan Wallace thin prior (8 touches)	WR	CLE	@ TEN		0.9	-6.5	0.6	0.4	5.1	0.0	0.2
129	Cedric Tillman thin prior (43 touches)	WR	NO	vs PIT		0.9	-6.5	0.7	0.4	5.0	0.0	0.3
130	LaJohntay Wester thin prior (0 touches)	WR	BAL	vs CIN		0.8	-6.5	0.6	0.3	4.8	0.0	0.1
131	Camden Brown thin prior (0 touches)	WR	DAL	@ PHI		0.8	-6.5	0.7	0.4	4.7	0.0	0.3
132	Brandon Johnson thin prior (6 touches)	WR	PIT	@ NO		0.8	-6.5	0.6	0.4	4.6	0.0	0.2
133	Jalin Hyatt thin prior (21 touches)	WR	NYG	@ HOU		0.8	-6.6	0.7	0.4	4.6	0.0	0.3
134	K.J. Osborn thin prior (20 touches)	WR	TEN	vs CLE		0.8	-6.6	0.6	0.4	4.4	0.0	0.2
135	DeAndre Carter thin prior (6 touches)	WR	DET	vs GB		0.8	-6.6	0.6	0.4	4.4	0.0	0.3
136	Kameron Johnson thin prior (4 touches)	WR	TB	@ CAR		0.7	-6.6	0.5	0.3	4.2	0.0	0.1
137	Irvin Charles thin prior (0 touches)	WR	SEA	vs KC		0.7	-6.7	0.5	0.3	3.7	0.0	0.2
138	Simi Fehoko thin prior (5 touches)	WR	ARI	vs DEN		0.4	-7.0	0.3	0.2	2.2	0.0	0.1
139	Britain Covey thin prior (6 touches)	WR	PHI	vs DAL		0.4	-7.0	0.3	0.2	2.2	0.0	0.1
140	Devin Duvernay thin prior (9 touches)	WR	ARI	vs DEN		0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
141	DJ Moore ⚠	WR	BUF	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
142	Khalil Shakir	WR	BUF	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
143	Keon Coleman thin prior (47 touches)	WR	BUF	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
144	Josh Palmer thin prior (50 touches)	WR	BUF	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
145	Greg Dortch thin prior (40 touches)	WR	BUF	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
146	Skyler Bell thin prior (0 touches)	WR	BUF	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
147	Tyrell Shavers thin prior (12 touches)	WR	BUF	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
148	Malachi Corley thin prior (9 touches)	WR	CLE	@ TEN		0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
149	Coleman Owen thin prior (0 touches)	WR	GB	@ DET		0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
150	Parker Washington	WR	JAX	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
151	Jakobi Meyers	WR	JAX	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
152	Josh Cameron thin prior (0 touches)	WR	JAX	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
153	Brian Thomas Jr.	WR	JAX	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
154	Travis Hunter ⚠	WR	JAX	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
155	CJ Williams thin prior (0 touches)	WR	JAX	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
156	Justin Watson thin prior (22 touches)	WR	KC	@ SEA		0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
157	Alex Bachman thin prior (2 touches)	WR	LA	@ LV		0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
158	Ladd McConkey	WR	LAC	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
159	Quentin Johnston	WR	LAC	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
160	Tre Harris thin prior (22 touches)	WR	LAC	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
161	KeAndre Lambert-Smith thin prior (6 touches)	WR	LAC	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
162	Brenen Thompson thin prior (0 touches)	WR	LAC	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
163	Theo Wease Jr. thin prior (5 touches)	WR	LAC	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
164	Derius Davis thin prior (10 touches)	WR	LAC	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
165	Malik McClain thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NYJ	vs MIA		0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
166	Stefon Diggs ⚠	WR	WAS	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
167	Antonio Williams thin prior (0 touches)	WR	WAS	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
168	Treylon Burks thin prior (19 touches)	WR	WAS	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
169	Dyami Brown thin prior (35 touches)	WR	WAS	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
170	Luke McCaffrey thin prior (15 touches)	WR	WAS	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
171	Terry McLaurin	WR	WAS	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
172	Jaylin Lane thin prior (16 touches)	WR	WAS	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

VORP = this player's points minus the points of the last startable player at his position (hover the VORP cell to see who). Baseline rank = teams × starters, with FLEX split RB/WR/TE 45/45/10.

Known limitations

Thin priors over-projected QBs. Efficiency comes from 2023–25, regressed toward the league average by sample size. Over Weeks 1–4, QB1s whose prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted dropbacks were projected +3.9 PPR a game too high (9 QBs; established QB1s +0.1). Those rows carry a thin prior chip. From Week 7 (model n8-v3) a QB's passing rates also read his own 2026 dropbacks, weighted against the prior's sample plus a fixed anchor, so a few snaps barely move them. On Weeks 5–6 this halved the thin-QB bias. Rushing rates and the game lines still use the prior: the game-level check of the same change failed.
Team pass volume is a 2023–25 prior too; in-season, only player shares blend toward what is observed. Blending team volume in-season was tested twice and lost to the prior both times.