NFL Player Projections

Week 5 — opponent-adjusted (this week's defence, home/away), availability-weighted, byes zeroed. Components (volume × efficiency) with scoring applied as a view. Model n8-v2 · updated 18d ago.

Week: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8• Season Position: All QB RB WR TE

Scoring: PPR Half Standard DK Rank by: VORP Points ⬇ CSV

League & scoring settings — server-side, from your stored component projections; the URL is the saved config

167 players · ranked by VORP under half_ppr scoring, 12-team league (1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1FLEX). thin prior (n) = the efficiency prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted 2023–25 dropbacks (QB) or 55 touches (RB/WR/TE), so the league average carries about half or more of the line's efficiency; ⚠ = low-sample / rookie (archetype-driven). A designation like Q · 60% means the line is weighted by that play probability; BYE rows project 0 and are kept visible.

Replacement level (VORP is measured against these): QB12 Brock Purdy · 17.8 pts · RB29 RJ Harvey · 8.3 pts · WR41 Devaughn Vele · 7.4 pts · TE13 Dalton Schultz · 6.9 pts

#	Player	Pos	Tm	Opp	Status	Pts	VORP	Tgt	Rec	RecYd	RecTD	Car
1	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	SEA	vs SF		15.5	+8.1	9.6	6.7	90.6	0.5	0.1
2	CeeDee Lamb	WR	DAL	vs TB		15.3	+7.9	10.1	6.7	91.0	0.5	0.4
3	Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	@ ARI		14.0	+6.7	9.0	6.3	76.0	0.5	0.1
4	Puka Nacua	WR	LA	vs BUF		13.3	+6.0	8.3	6.0	78.8	0.4	0.4
5	Michael Wilson	WR	ARI	vs DET		12.2	+4.8	8.4	5.3	68.7	0.4	0.1
6	Nico Collins	WR	HOU	@ TEN		11.4	+4.1	7.1	4.5	67.9	0.4	0.3
7	Drake London	WR	ATL	vs BAL		11.2	+3.9	7.8	4.8	64.0	0.4	0.3
8	Chris Olave	WR	NO	vs MIN		11.2	+3.9	8.3	5.4	62.2	0.4	0.2
9	Romeo Doubs ⚠	WR	NE	vs LV		11.1	+3.7	7.3	4.6	61.6	0.4	0.1
10	Parker Washington	WR	JAX	vs PHI		10.8	+3.5	7.6	4.8	61.2	0.4	0.3
11	DK Metcalf	WR	PIT	vs IND		10.4	+3.1	6.7	4.1	61.3	0.4	0.1
12	Jaylen Waddle ⚠	WR	DEN	@ LAC		10.4	+3.0	7.4	4.8	60.1	0.3	0.3
13	Christian Watson thin prior (54 touches)	WR	GB	vs CHI		10.3	+3.0	6.3	3.8	60.8	0.4	0.1
14	Malik Washington thin prior (43 touches)	WR	MIA	vs CIN		10.2	+2.9	7.5	5.0	55.1	0.4	0.9
15	Tee Higgins	WR	CIN	@ MIA	Q · 78%	10.1	+2.7	6.4	4.0	53.7	0.5	0.1
16	Garrett Wilson	WR	NYJ	vs CLE		10.1	+2.7	8.0	4.9	54.5	0.4	0.2
17	George Pickens	WR	DAL	vs TB		10.0	+2.6	6.1	3.9	60.5	0.3	0.2
18	Khalil Shakir	WR	BUF	@ LA		9.8	+2.5	7.1	5.1	54.5	0.3	0.1
19	Tre Harris thin prior (22 touches)	WR	LAC	vs DEN		9.8	+2.5	7.2	4.7	55.5	0.3	0.1
20	Mike Evans ⚠	WR	SF	@ SEA		9.7	+2.3	7.5	4.5	50.5	0.4	0.1
21	Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	@ MIA	Q · 78%	9.2	+1.9	6.1	4.1	51.0	0.3	0.1
22	Denzel Boston thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CLE	@ NYJ		9.2	+1.8	7.3	4.1	51.9	0.3	0.1
23	Malik Nabers	WR	NYG	@ WAS		9.2	+1.8	6.6	4.1	51.6	0.3	0.1
24	Josh Downs	WR	IND	@ PIT		9.1	+1.7	7.0	4.6	49.3	0.3	0.1
25	Dontayvion Wicks ⚠	WR	PHI	@ JAX		9.0	+1.6	6.7	4.1	49.0	0.3	0.2
26	Luther Burden III thin prior (30 touches)	WR	CHI	@ GB		8.8	+1.5	6.0	4.1	51.7	0.3	0.5
27	Emeka Egbuka	WR	TB	@ DAL		8.8	+1.4	6.6	3.7	50.3	0.3	0.3
28	KC Concepcion thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CLE	@ NYJ		8.4	+1.1	6.7	3.7	47.8	0.3	0.6
29	Jameson Williams	WR	DET	@ ARI		8.3	+0.9	5.1	3.2	49.4	0.3	0.1
30	Matthew Golden thin prior (22 touches)	WR	GB	vs CHI		8.3	+0.9	5.9	3.8	48.6	0.3	0.3
31	Wan'Dale Robinson ⚠	WR	TEN	vs HOU		8.3	+0.9	6.8	4.5	45.6	0.2	0.3
32	Tre Tucker	WR	LV	@ NE		7.9	+0.5	5.9	3.6	43.9	0.3	0.1
33	Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	@ NO	Q · 72%	7.8	+0.5	5.8	3.6	46.3	0.2	0.1
34	Courtland Sutton	WR	DEN	@ LAC		7.8	+0.4	5.9	3.6	42.0	0.3	0.2
35	Rome Odunze	WR	CHI	@ GB		7.7	+0.3	5.9	3.3	43.4	0.3	0.2
36	Zay Flowers	WR	BAL	@ ATL	Q · 72%	7.7	+0.3	5.2	3.5	45.7	0.2	0.2
37	Davante Adams	WR	LA	vs BUF		7.6	+0.2	6.1	3.5	37.9	0.3	0.1
38	Roman Wilson thin prior (10 touches)	WR	PIT	vs IND		7.5	+0.2	5.1	3.1	42.7	0.3	0.1
39	Terry McLaurin	WR	WAS	vs NYG	Q · 72%	7.5	+0.2	4.9	3.2	42.4	0.3	0.1
40	Antonio Williams thin prior (0 touches)	WR	WAS	vs NYG		7.5	+0.1	5.8	3.2	42.7	0.3	0.2
41	Devaughn Vele thin prior (36 touches)	WR	NO	vs MIN		7.4	+0.0	5.4	3.5	40.7	0.3	0.2
42	DeMario Douglas	WR	NE	vs LV		7.3	-0.1	5.0	3.3	42.0	0.2	0.1
43	Kendrick Bourne thin prior (49 touches)	WR	ARI	vs DET		7.1	-0.3	5.1	3.4	41.5	0.2	0.1
44	Carnell Tate thin prior (0 touches)	WR	TEN	vs HOU	Q · 72%	7.1	-0.3	5.8	3.2	39.7	0.2	0.1
45	Chris Godwin Jr.	WR	TB	@ DAL		6.9	-0.4	5.0	3.3	38.9	0.2	0.4
46	Ryan Flournoy thin prior (32 touches)	WR	DAL	vs TB		6.8	-0.6	4.5	3.0	38.2	0.2	0.2
47	Rashod Bateman thin prior (52 touches)	WR	BAL	@ ATL		6.8	-0.6	4.8	2.9	37.5	0.3	0.2
48	Jauan Jennings ⚠	WR	MIN	@ NO		6.7	-0.7	4.8	3.0	35.5	0.3	0.2
49	Keon Coleman thin prior (47 touches)	WR	BUF	@ LA		6.5	-0.8	4.9	3.0	35.6	0.2	0.1
50	Dohnte Meyers thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CIN	@ MIA		6.5	-0.9	5.2	2.9	36.7	0.2	0.3
51	Jakobi Meyers	WR	JAX	vs PHI		6.5	-0.9	4.9	3.2	36.4	0.2	0.3
52	Kalif Raymond thin prior (30 touches)	WR	CHI	@ GB		6.4	-1.0	4.6	3.2	35.7	0.2	0.2
53	Chris Bell thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIA	vs CIN		6.4	-1.0	4.8	2.7	36.6	0.2	0.2
54	Brian Thomas Jr.	WR	JAX	vs PHI		6.3	-1.1	4.5	2.7	36.6	0.2	0.1
55	Jahan Dotson thin prior (44 touches)	WR	ATL	vs BAL		6.3	-1.1	4.7	2.8	35.8	0.2	0.1
56	Deebo Samuel Sr.	WR	SF	@ SEA		6.2	-1.2	4.6	3.1	33.7	0.2	1.0
57	Rashid Shaheed	WR	SEA	vs SF		6.2	-1.2	4.3	2.7	36.0	0.2	0.5
58	Malachi Fields thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NYG	@ WAS		6.0	-1.4	4.7	2.6	34.2	0.2	0.1
59	Tim Patrick thin prior (25 touches)	WR	NYJ	vs CLE	Q · 78%	5.8	-1.5	4.4	2.9	30.9	0.2	0.3
60	Cody White thin prior (3 touches)	WR	LV	@ NE		5.7	-1.6	3.9	2.5	32.7	0.2	0.1
61	Makai Lemon thin prior (0 touches)	WR	PHI	@ JAX		5.7	-1.7	4.7	2.6	32.0	0.2	0.3
62	Marvin Harrison Jr. ⚠	WR	HOU	@ TEN		5.5	-1.9	3.8	2.2	31.0	0.2	0.1
63	Keenan Allen ⚠	WR	IND	@ PIT	Q · 78%	5.2	-2.1	4.7	3.0	26.9	0.2	0.1
64	Isaiah Williams thin prior (19 touches)	WR	NYJ	vs CLE		5.2	-2.2	4.1	2.7	28.3	0.2	0.4
65	Laquon Treadwell thin prior (1 touches)	WR	IND	@ PIT		5.1	-2.3	3.9	2.5	28.2	0.2	0.1
66	Jerry Jeudy	WR	CLE	@ NYJ		4.9	-2.5	3.8	2.2	29.1	0.1	0.2
67	Efton Chism III thin prior (2 touches)	WR	NE	vs LV		4.9	-2.5	3.2	2.0	28.1	0.2	0.2
68	Isaac TeSlaa thin prior (14 touches)	WR	DET	@ ARI		4.9	-2.5	3.2	2.0	26.2	0.2	0.1
69	Ted Hurst III thin prior (0 touches)	WR	TB	@ DAL		4.9	-2.5	3.9	2.2	27.6	0.2	0.1
70	Kevin Coleman Jr. thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIA	vs CIN		4.8	-2.5	3.7	2.0	27.9	0.2	0.2
71	Xavier Hutchinson thin prior (40 touches)	WR	HOU	@ TEN		4.7	-2.6	3.5	2.1	26.6	0.2	0.4
72	Kayshon Boutte thin prior (45 touches)	WR	HOU	@ TEN		4.7	-2.7	2.9	1.9	26.6	0.2	0.1
73	Tai Felton thin prior (2 touches)	WR	MIN	@ NO		4.6	-2.7	3.5	2.2	25.6	0.2	0.2
74	Marquez Valdes-Scantling thin prior (36 touches)	WR	LAC	vs DEN		4.5	-2.8	3.7	2.1	25.1	0.2	0.2
75	Ladd McConkey	WR	LAC	vs DEN	Q · 50%	4.5	-2.9	3.1	2.0	25.1	0.2	0.1
76	Germie Bernard thin prior (0 touches)	WR	PIT	vs IND		4.3	-3.1	3.3	1.8	24.5	0.2	0.2
77	Mitchell Tinsley thin prior (12 touches)	WR	CIN	@ MIA		4.2	-3.2	3.1	1.8	23.1	0.2	0.2
78	Skyy Moore thin prior (12 touches)	WR	GB	vs CHI		4.2	-3.2	2.9	1.8	24.2	0.1	0.1
79	Devontez Walker thin prior (5 touches)	WR	BAL	@ ATL		4.2	-3.2	2.7	1.7	23.1	0.2	0.2
80	Elic Ayomanor thin prior (44 touches)	WR	TEN	vs HOU		4.1	-3.3	3.3	1.8	22.5	0.2	0.1
81	Treylon Burks thin prior (19 touches)	WR	WAS	vs NYG		4.0	-3.3	2.9	1.7	23.2	0.1	0.2
82	Cooper Kupp	WR	SEA	vs SF		4.0	-3.3	3.0	2.0	22.4	0.1	0.1
83	Darius Cooper thin prior (6 touches)	WR	PHI	@ JAX		4.0	-3.4	2.9	1.9	22.6	0.1	0.2
84	Darnell Mooney ⚠	WR	NYG	@ WAS		4.0	-3.4	3.0	1.7	23.9	0.1	0.3
85	Olamide Zaccheaus ⚠	WR	ATL	vs BAL		3.6	-3.7	2.7	1.7	19.7	0.1	0.1
86	Dyami Brown thin prior (35 touches)	WR	WAS	vs NYG		3.6	-3.8	2.6	1.6	20.6	0.1	0.2
87	Bryce Lance thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NO	vs MIN		3.6	-3.8	3.0	1.7	20.0	0.1	0.2
88	Brandin Cooks thin prior (50 touches)	WR	SF	@ SEA		3.4	-3.9	2.9	1.8	18.1	0.1	0.2
89	Jordan Whittington thin prior (21 touches)	WR	LA	vs BUF		3.4	-4.0	2.4	1.6	19.6	0.1	0.2
90	Troy Franklin	WR	DEN	@ LAC		3.3	-4.1	2.6	1.6	17.2	0.1	0.4
91	Theo Wease Jr. thin prior (5 touches)	WR	LAC	vs DEN		3.2	-4.1	2.2	1.4	18.6	0.1	0.3
92	Tez Johnson thin prior (22 touches)	WR	TB	@ DAL		2.9	-4.5	2.0	1.3	15.4	0.1	0.4
93	Jalen Brooks thin prior (13 touches)	WR	ARI	vs DET		2.8	-4.5	2.1	1.2	16.3	0.1	0.1
94	Dareke Young thin prior (2 touches)	WR	LV	@ NE		2.8	-4.5	2.0	1.3	16.1	0.1	0.1
95	Calvin Ridley	WR	TEN	vs HOU		2.8	-4.5	2.3	1.3	16.5	0.1	0.1
96	Konata Mumpfield thin prior (12 touches)	WR	LA	vs BUF		2.8	-4.6	2.1	1.2	15.4	0.1	0.1
97	Kyle Williams thin prior (10 touches)	WR	NE	vs LV		2.7	-4.7	1.7	1.1	15.2	0.1	0.1
98	Chris Moore thin prior (18 touches)	WR	BAL	@ ATL		2.6	-4.7	2.0	1.2	15.3	0.1	0.2
99	Greg Dortch thin prior (40 touches)	WR	BUF	@ LA		2.5	-4.8	1.9	1.3	13.0	0.1	0.1
100	Marvin Mims Jr. thin prior (48 touches)	WR	DEN	@ LAC		2.4	-5.0	1.8	1.2	13.1	0.1	0.3
101	Jalen Tolbert thin prior (48 touches)	WR	MIA	vs CIN		2.4	-5.0	1.6	1.0	13.4	0.1	0.2
102	Tory Horton thin prior (11 touches)	WR	SEA	vs SF		2.3	-5.0	1.5	1.0	12.5	0.1	0.2
103	Jaylin Noel thin prior (18 touches)	WR	HOU	@ TEN		2.3	-5.1	1.6	1.0	12.8	0.1	0.5
104	Josh Cameron thin prior (0 touches)	WR	JAX	vs PHI		2.2	-5.2	1.8	1.0	12.3	0.1	0.1
105	Zachariah Branch thin prior (0 touches)	WR	ATL	vs BAL		2.1	-5.2	1.7	0.9	12.2	0.1	0.1
106	Deion Burks thin prior (0 touches)	WR	IND	@ PIT		2.1	-5.2	1.8	1.0	11.8	0.1	0.4
107	Myles Price thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIN	@ NO		2.1	-5.3	1.6	1.0	11.6	0.1	0.3
108	Cedric Tillman thin prior (43 touches)	WR	NO	vs MIN		2.1	-5.3	1.6	1.0	11.4	0.1	0.3
109	Ben Skowronek thin prior (7 touches)	WR	PIT	vs IND		2.0	-5.3	1.3	0.9	11.6	0.1	0.2
110	KaVontae Turpin thin prior (38 touches)	WR	DAL	vs TB		2.0	-5.3	1.4	0.9	11.7	0.1	0.5
111	Skyler Bell thin prior (0 touches)	WR	BUF	@ LA		2.0	-5.3	1.7	1.0	11.2	0.1	0.3
112	Malik McClain thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NYJ	vs CLE		1.9	-5.4	1.6	0.9	10.8	0.1	0.3
113	Jared Wayne thin prior (1 touches)	WR	HOU	@ TEN		1.9	-5.5	1.3	0.8	10.7	0.1	0.0
114	Isaiah Bond thin prior (22 touches)	WR	CLE	@ NYJ		1.7	-5.6	1.3	0.8	10.2	0.1	0.2
115	Elijah Moore ⚠	WR	PHI	@ JAX		1.7	-5.6	1.5	0.9	9.6	0.1	0.3
116	Charlie Jones thin prior (3 touches)	WR	NYG	@ WAS		1.7	-5.7	1.2	0.8	9.7	0.1	0.2
117	Tutu Atwell thin prior (40 touches)	WR	LA	vs BUF		1.6	-5.7	1.1	0.7	9.7	0.1	0.2
118	Bo Melton ⚠	WR	GB	vs CHI		1.6	-5.7	1.1	0.7	9.2	0.1	0.1
119	Ryan Miller thin prior (8 touches)	WR	MIA	vs CIN		1.6	-5.7	1.1	0.7	9.1	0.1	0.2
120	Jacob Cowing thin prior (2 touches)	WR	SF	@ SEA		1.6	-5.8	1.2	0.7	8.7	0.1	0.2
121	Malik Benson thin prior (0 touches)	WR	LV	@ NE		1.5	-5.9	1.2	0.7	8.4	0.1	0.2
122	Chimere Dike thin prior (37 touches)	WR	TEN	vs HOU		1.4	-5.9	1.1	0.7	7.5	0.1	0.1
123	Derius Davis thin prior (10 touches)	WR	LAC	vs DEN		1.4	-6.0	1.0	0.6	7.3	0.0	0.2
124	LaJohntay Wester thin prior (0 touches)	WR	BAL	@ ATL		1.3	-6.1	0.9	0.6	7.3	0.0	0.2
125	Zavion Thomas thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CHI	@ GB		1.3	-6.1	1.1	0.6	7.2	0.0	0.2
126	Simi Fehoko thin prior (5 touches)	WR	ARI	vs DET		1.3	-6.1	0.9	0.6	7.2	0.0	0.1
127	Jordan Watkins thin prior (2 touches)	WR	SF	@ SEA		1.3	-6.1	1.0	0.6	7.0	0.0	0.2
128	Chris Blair thin prior (1 touches)	WR	ATL	vs BAL		1.1	-6.2	0.8	0.5	6.3	0.0	0.1
129	Lil'Jordan Humphrey thin prior (30 touches)	WR	DEN	@ LAC		1.1	-6.3	0.8	0.5	5.8	0.0	0.3
130	Jahdae Walker thin prior (5 touches)	WR	CHI	@ GB		1.0	-6.3	0.7	0.5	5.7	0.0	0.3
131	Tom Kennedy thin prior (2 touches)	WR	DET	@ ARI		1.0	-6.3	0.8	0.5	5.9	0.0	0.1
132	J. Michael Sturdivant thin prior (0 touches)	WR	GB	vs CHI		1.0	-6.3	0.8	0.4	5.8	0.0	0.1
133	Luke McCaffrey thin prior (15 touches)	WR	WAS	vs NYG		1.0	-6.4	0.6	0.4	5.6	0.0	0.3
134	Nick Westbrook-Ikhine thin prior (37 touches)	WR	IND	@ PIT		0.9	-6.5	0.6	0.4	4.7	0.0	0.2
135	Dalen Cambre thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NYG	@ WAS		0.9	-6.5	0.6	0.4	4.9	0.0	0.3
136	Kameron Johnson thin prior (4 touches)	WR	TB	@ DAL		0.8	-6.5	0.6	0.4	4.7	0.0	0.1
137	Deven Thompkins thin prior (8 touches)	WR	LV	@ NE		0.8	-6.5	0.6	0.4	4.5	0.0	0.2
138	Jeshaun Jones thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIN	@ NO		0.8	-6.5	0.6	0.4	4.6	0.0	0.2
139	Travis Hunter ⚠	WR	JAX	vs PHI		0.8	-6.6	0.6	0.4	4.4	0.0	0.3
140	Jonathan Mingo thin prior (32 touches)	WR	DAL	vs TB	Q · 50%	0.6	-6.8	0.5	0.3	3.3	0.0	0.1
141	Tay Martin thin prior (2 touches)	WR	DET	@ ARI		0.5	-6.8	0.4	0.2	2.9	0.0	0.2
142	Devin Duvernay thin prior (9 touches)	WR	ARI	vs DET		0.4	-6.9	0.3	0.2	2.4	0.0	0.1
143	Malachi Corley thin prior (9 touches)	WR	CLE	@ NYJ		0.4	-6.9	0.3	0.2	2.3	0.0	0.2
144	Kaden Wetjen thin prior (0 touches)	WR	PIT	vs IND		0.4	-7.0	0.3	0.2	2.3	0.0	0.1
145	Britain Covey thin prior (6 touches)	WR	PHI	@ JAX		0.4	-7.0	0.3	0.2	2.1	0.0	0.2
146	Barion Brown thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NO	vs MIN	Q · 78%	0.3	-7.0	0.3	0.2	1.9	0.0	0.4
147	Reggie Virgil thin prior (0 touches)	WR	ARI	vs DET		0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
148	Tetairoa McMillan	WR	CAR	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
149	Jalen Coker thin prior (35 touches)	WR	CAR	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
150	Brycen Tremayne thin prior (9 touches)	WR	CAR	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
151	John Metchie III thin prior (41 touches)	WR	CAR	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
152	David Moore thin prior (19 touches)	WR	CAR	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
153	Xavier Legette	WR	CAR	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
154	Chris Brazzell II thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CAR	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
155	Anthony Gould thin prior (1 touches)	WR	IND	@ PIT		0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
156	Rashee Rice	WR	KC	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
157	Xavier Worthy	WR	KC	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
158	Jalen Royals thin prior (2 touches)	WR	KC	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
159	Cyrus Allen thin prior (0 touches)	WR	KC	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
160	Nikko Remigio thin prior (2 touches)	WR	KC	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
161	Tyquan Thornton thin prior (26 touches)	WR	KC	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
162	Jeff Caldwell thin prior (0 touches)	WR	KC	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
163	Jimmy Holiday thin prior (0 touches)	WR	KC	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
164	Alex Bachman thin prior (2 touches)	WR	LA	vs BUF		0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
165	Brandon Smith thin prior (0 touches)	WR	PIT	vs IND		0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
166	Brandon Aiyuk thin prior (35 touches)	WR	SF	@ SEA		0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
167	Van Jefferson thin prior (47 touches)	WR	WAS	vs NYG		0.0	-7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

VORP = this player's points minus the points of the last startable player at his position (hover the VORP cell to see who). Baseline rank = teams × starters, with FLEX split RB/WR/TE 45/45/10.

Known limitations

Thin priors over-projected QBs. Efficiency comes from 2023–25, regressed toward the league average by sample size. Over Weeks 1–4, QB1s whose prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted dropbacks were projected +3.9 PPR a game too high (9 QBs; established QB1s +0.1). Those rows carry a thin prior chip. From Week 7 (model n8-v3) a QB's passing rates also read his own 2026 dropbacks, weighted against the prior's sample plus a fixed anchor, so a few snaps barely move them. On Weeks 5–6 this halved the thin-QB bias. Rushing rates and the game lines still use the prior: the game-level check of the same change failed.
Team pass volume is a 2023–25 prior too; in-season, only player shares blend toward what is observed. Blending team volume in-season was tested twice and lost to the prior both times.