NFL Player Projections

Week 4 — opponent-adjusted (this week's defence, home/away), availability-weighted, byes zeroed. Components (volume × efficiency) with scoring applied as a view. Model n8-v2 · updated 25d ago.

Week: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8• Season Position: All QB RB WR TE

Scoring: PPR Half Standard DK Rank by: VORP Points ⬇ CSV

League & scoring settings — server-side, from your stored component projections; the URL is the saved config

170 players · ranked by VORP under half_ppr scoring, 12-team league (1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1FLEX). thin prior (n) = the efficiency prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted 2023–25 dropbacks (QB) or 55 touches (RB/WR/TE), so the league average carries about half or more of the line's efficiency; ⚠ = low-sample / rookie (archetype-driven). A designation like Q · 60% means the line is weighted by that play probability; BYE rows project 0 and are kept visible.

Replacement level (VORP is measured against these): QB12 Dak Prescott · 17.4 pts · RB29 Braelon Allen · 9.1 pts · WR41 Khalil Shakir · 7.7 pts · TE13 Cade Otton · 7.3 pts

#	Player	Pos	Tm	Opp	Status	Pts	VORP	Tgt	Rec	RecYd	RecTD	Car
1	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	SEA	vs LAC		15.2	+7.5	9.6	6.7	88.2	0.5	0.2
2	Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	@ CAR		14.7	+7.0	9.4	6.6	79.7	0.6	0.2
3	Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	vs JAX		14.2	+6.5	9.2	6.2	79.1	0.5	0.1
4	Puka Nacua	WR	LA	@ PHI		12.9	+5.2	8.7	6.2	74.3	0.4	0.2
5	Chris Olave	WR	NO	vs ATL		12.9	+5.2	8.8	5.7	73.1	0.5	0.2
6	Nico Collins	WR	HOU	vs DAL		12.3	+4.6	7.4	4.7	73.9	0.4	0.4
7	CeeDee Lamb	WR	DAL	@ HOU		11.9	+4.2	8.7	5.8	68.4	0.4	0.3
8	Parker Washington	WR	JAX	@ CIN		11.8	+4.1	8.0	5.0	67.3	0.4	0.2
9	Jordan Addison	WR	MIN	vs MIA		11.7	+3.9	7.5	4.5	66.0	0.5	0.2
10	Garrett Wilson	WR	NYJ	@ CHI		11.1	+3.4	8.7	5.4	60.6	0.4	0.2
11	Michael Wilson	WR	ARI	@ NYG		11.0	+3.3	7.8	4.9	61.9	0.4	0.1
12	Jaylen Waddle ⚠	WR	DEN	@ SF		10.9	+3.2	7.6	5.0	63.8	0.3	0.4
13	Tee Higgins	WR	CIN	vs JAX		10.8	+3.0	6.7	4.1	57.8	0.5	0.1
14	DJ Moore ⚠	WR	BUF	vs NE		10.6	+2.9	7.1	4.6	59.5	0.4	0.3
15	Christian Watson thin prior (54 touches)	WR	GB	@ TB		10.5	+2.8	6.8	4.1	61.2	0.4	0.2
16	Josh Downs	WR	IND	@ WAS		10.5	+2.7	7.5	5.0	58.3	0.4	0.1
17	Drake London	WR	ATL	@ NO		10.3	+2.6	7.6	4.7	57.8	0.4	0.4
18	Dontayvion Wicks ⚠	WR	PHI	vs LA		9.9	+2.1	7.2	4.4	54.2	0.4	0.2
19	Quentin Johnston	WR	LAC	@ SEA		9.8	+2.1	7.1	4.3	52.2	0.4	0.3
20	George Pickens	WR	DAL	@ HOU		9.8	+2.1	6.8	4.3	57.7	0.3	0.2
21	Tetairoa McMillan	WR	CAR	vs DET		9.7	+2.0	6.8	4.1	55.4	0.4	0.2
22	Luther Burden III thin prior (30 touches)	WR	CHI	vs NYJ		9.7	+2.0	6.0	4.1	58.3	0.3	0.4
23	Stefon Diggs ⚠	WR	WAS	vs IND		9.5	+1.8	6.6	4.7	53.5	0.3	0.2
24	Malik Nabers	WR	NYG	vs ARI		9.4	+1.7	6.6	4.1	53.4	0.3	0.2
25	Emeka Egbuka	WR	TB	vs GB		9.4	+1.7	6.8	3.8	54.4	0.3	0.3
26	Rashee Rice	WR	KC	@ LV		9.3	+1.6	6.4	4.4	50.5	0.3	0.1
27	Denzel Boston thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CLE	vs PIT		9.1	+1.3	7.2	4.0	51.5	0.3	0.2
28	Carnell Tate thin prior (0 touches)	WR	TEN	@ BAL		8.9	+1.1	7.5	4.1	49.6	0.3	0.1
29	Romeo Doubs ⚠	WR	NE	@ BUF		8.8	+1.1	6.3	4.0	47.8	0.3	0.2
30	Malik Washington thin prior (43 touches)	WR	MIA	@ MIN		8.8	+1.1	7.5	5.0	44.9	0.3	0.7
31	DK Metcalf	WR	PIT	@ CLE		8.6	+0.9	6.4	3.9	48.9	0.3	0.2
32	Jameson Williams	WR	DET	@ CAR		8.3	+0.6	5.1	3.2	49.4	0.3	0.2
33	Rome Odunze	WR	CHI	vs NYJ		8.2	+0.5	5.7	3.2	47.5	0.3	0.2
34	Devaughn Vele thin prior (36 touches)	WR	NO	vs ATL		8.2	+0.5	5.5	3.6	46.6	0.3	0.2
35	KC Concepcion thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CLE	vs PIT		8.1	+0.4	6.5	3.6	46.1	0.3	0.7
36	Rashod Bateman thin prior (52 touches)	WR	BAL	vs TEN		8.1	+0.4	5.2	3.1	45.8	0.3	0.2
37	Tre Tucker	WR	LV	vs KC		8.1	+0.4	5.9	3.6	45.4	0.3	0.2
38	Zay Flowers	WR	BAL	vs TEN	Q · 72%	8.1	+0.3	5.0	3.4	49.1	0.2	0.3
39	Courtland Sutton	WR	DEN	@ SF		8.0	+0.2	5.8	3.6	43.3	0.3	0.2
40	Matthew Golden thin prior (22 touches)	WR	GB	@ TB		7.8	+0.1	5.8	3.7	45.2	0.2	0.2
41	Khalil Shakir	WR	BUF	vs NE		7.7	+0.0	5.1	3.7	44.1	0.2	0.2
42	Kalif Raymond thin prior (30 touches)	WR	CHI	vs NYJ		7.5	-0.2	5.0	3.5	43.4	0.2	0.2
43	Jauan Jennings ⚠	WR	MIN	vs MIA		7.2	-0.5	4.7	3.0	39.6	0.3	0.2
44	Davante Adams	WR	LA	@ PHI		7.2	-0.5	6.2	3.6	35.1	0.3	0.1
45	Deebo Samuel Sr.	WR	SF	vs DEN		7.2	-0.5	5.1	3.4	39.9	0.3	0.9
46	Jalen Nailor thin prior (40 touches)	WR	LV	vs KC		7.1	-0.6	4.7	2.9	39.7	0.3	0.1
47	Terry McLaurin	WR	WAS	vs IND	Q · 72%	7.1	-0.7	4.6	3.0	40.0	0.3	0.1
48	Xavier Hutchinson thin prior (40 touches)	WR	HOU	vs DAL		7.0	-0.8	5.0	3.0	39.6	0.2	0.5
49	Mike Evans ⚠	WR	SF	vs DEN	Q · 72%	6.9	-0.8	5.1	3.0	36.8	0.3	0.1
50	Wan'Dale Robinson ⚠	WR	TEN	@ BAL		6.8	-0.9	5.7	3.8	37.4	0.2	0.1
51	Tre Harris thin prior (22 touches)	WR	LAC	@ SEA		6.8	-0.9	5.2	3.4	37.7	0.2	0.2
52	Brian Thomas Jr.	WR	JAX	@ CIN		6.8	-0.9	4.7	2.8	40.0	0.2	0.2
53	Ladd McConkey	WR	LAC	@ SEA	Q · 72%	6.8	-0.9	4.9	3.2	37.5	0.2	0.1
54	Chris Godwin Jr.	WR	TB	vs GB		6.6	-1.1	4.6	3.1	37.6	0.2	0.5
55	Malachi Fields thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NYG	vs ARI		6.6	-1.1	5.0	2.8	37.8	0.2	0.2
56	Jakobi Meyers	WR	JAX	@ CIN		6.6	-1.2	4.8	3.2	37.2	0.2	0.3
57	Laquon Treadwell thin prior (1 touches)	WR	IND	@ WAS		6.5	-1.2	4.7	2.9	36.9	0.2	0.2
58	Xavier Worthy	WR	KC	@ LV		6.5	-1.2	5.1	3.1	36.7	0.2	0.2
59	DeMario Douglas	WR	NE	@ BUF		6.5	-1.2	4.9	3.3	36.7	0.2	0.2
60	Ryan Flournoy thin prior (32 touches)	WR	DAL	@ HOU		6.2	-1.6	4.6	3.0	33.6	0.2	0.2
61	Rashid Shaheed	WR	SEA	vs LAC		6.1	-1.6	4.4	2.7	35.2	0.2	0.3
62	Jalen Coker thin prior (35 touches)	WR	CAR	vs DET	Q · 72%	6.0	-1.7	4.0	2.7	34.5	0.2	0.1
63	Jahan Dotson thin prior (44 touches)	WR	ATL	@ NO		5.9	-1.8	4.8	2.8	33.2	0.2	0.2
64	Michael Pittman ⚠	WR	PIT	@ CLE		5.9	-1.8	4.7	3.2	31.4	0.2	0.2
65	Makai Lemon thin prior (0 touches)	WR	PHI	vs LA		5.8	-2.0	4.6	2.6	32.5	0.2	0.3
66	Isaiah Williams thin prior (19 touches)	WR	NYJ	@ CHI		5.7	-2.1	4.4	2.9	31.1	0.2	0.4
67	Chris Bell thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIA	@ MIN		5.6	-2.1	5.0	2.7	30.7	0.2	0.2
68	Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	ARI	@ NYG		5.5	-2.2	4.0	2.3	31.0	0.2	0.1
69	Mack Hollins thin prior (54 touches)	WR	NE	@ BUF		5.3	-2.5	4.2	2.7	28.7	0.2	0.2
70	Kendrick Bourne thin prior (49 touches)	WR	ARI	@ NYG		5.1	-2.6	3.8	2.5	29.9	0.1	0.1
71	Ted Hurst III thin prior (0 touches)	WR	TB	vs GB		5.1	-2.6	4.0	2.2	29.1	0.2	0.2
72	Tai Felton thin prior (2 touches)	WR	MIN	vs MIA		5.0	-2.7	3.4	2.2	28.8	0.2	0.2
73	Jerry Jeudy	WR	CLE	vs PIT		5.0	-2.7	3.9	2.3	29.8	0.1	0.2
74	Roman Wilson thin prior (10 touches)	WR	PIT	@ CLE		5.0	-2.8	3.8	2.4	27.1	0.2	0.2
75	Kayshon Boutte thin prior (45 touches)	WR	HOU	vs DAL		5.0	-2.8	3.0	1.9	28.7	0.2	0.1
76	Brycen Tremayne thin prior (9 touches)	WR	CAR	vs DET		4.9	-2.8	3.4	2.3	28.1	0.2	0.2
77	Brandin Cooks thin prior (50 touches)	WR	SF	vs DEN		4.9	-2.8	3.9	2.4	26.3	0.2	0.3
78	Devontez Walker thin prior (5 touches)	WR	BAL	vs TEN		4.7	-3.0	2.8	1.8	26.7	0.2	0.2
79	Antonio Williams thin prior (0 touches)	WR	WAS	vs IND		4.7	-3.0	3.6	2.0	27.0	0.2	0.2
80	Keon Coleman thin prior (47 touches)	WR	BUF	vs NE		4.5	-3.3	3.0	1.9	25.0	0.2	0.2
81	Darnell Mooney ⚠	WR	NYG	vs ARI		4.4	-3.4	3.2	1.8	26.3	0.1	0.3
82	Isaac TeSlaa thin prior (14 touches)	WR	DET	@ CAR		4.3	-3.4	2.9	1.8	23.3	0.2	0.2
83	Skyy Moore thin prior (12 touches)	WR	GB	@ TB		4.2	-3.5	3.1	1.9	24.0	0.1	0.2
84	Cody White thin prior (3 touches)	WR	LV	vs KC		4.2	-3.5	2.8	1.8	24.1	0.1	0.1
85	Dohnte Meyers thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CIN	vs JAX		4.1	-3.6	3.2	1.8	23.3	0.1	0.3
86	Bryce Lance thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NO	vs ATL		4.0	-3.8	3.1	1.7	22.8	0.1	0.2
87	Cooper Kupp	WR	SEA	vs LAC		4.0	-3.8	3.1	2.0	21.9	0.1	0.2
88	Pat Bryant thin prior (24 touches)	WR	DEN	@ SF		4.0	-3.8	3.0	1.9	22.5	0.1	0.4
89	Kevin Coleman Jr. thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIA	@ MIN		3.9	-3.9	3.4	1.9	21.2	0.1	0.2
90	Malik McClain thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NYJ	@ CHI		3.7	-4.0	3.1	1.7	20.8	0.1	0.3
91	Keenan Allen ⚠	WR	IND	@ WAS	Q · 50%	3.7	-4.0	3.1	2.0	19.4	0.1	0.1
92	Elic Ayomanor thin prior (44 touches)	WR	TEN	@ BAL		3.7	-4.1	3.1	1.7	20.0	0.1	0.1
93	Olamide Zaccheaus ⚠	WR	ATL	@ NO		3.6	-4.1	2.9	1.8	19.2	0.1	0.2
94	Jordan Whittington thin prior (21 touches)	WR	LA	@ PHI		3.4	-4.3	2.7	1.8	19.4	0.1	0.2
95	Jalen Royals thin prior (2 touches)	WR	KC	@ LV		3.3	-4.4	2.5	1.6	18.6	0.1	0.1
96	Darius Cooper thin prior (6 touches)	WR	PHI	vs LA		3.3	-4.5	2.3	1.5	18.5	0.1	0.2
97	John Metchie III thin prior (41 touches)	WR	CAR	vs DET		3.1	-4.7	2.3	1.5	16.8	0.1	0.2
98	Tez Johnson thin prior (22 touches)	WR	TB	vs GB		2.9	-4.8	1.9	1.2	15.6	0.1	0.3
99	Jaylin Noel thin prior (18 touches)	WR	HOU	vs DAL		2.8	-4.9	1.9	1.2	16.1	0.1	0.5
100	Ashton Dulin thin prior (7 touches)	WR	IND	@ WAS	Q · 78%	2.8	-4.9	1.9	1.2	16.3	0.1	0.2
101	Konata Mumpfield thin prior (12 touches)	WR	LA	@ PHI		2.7	-5.0	2.2	1.3	14.4	0.1	0.1
102	Jared Wayne thin prior (1 touches)	WR	HOU	vs DAL		2.6	-5.2	1.7	1.1	14.8	0.1	0.1
103	Germie Bernard thin prior (0 touches)	WR	PIT	@ CLE		2.6	-5.2	2.3	1.3	14.1	0.1	0.2
104	Josh Palmer thin prior (50 touches)	WR	BUF	vs NE		2.5	-5.2	1.8	1.1	15.3	0.1	0.2
105	LaJohntay Wester thin prior (0 touches)	WR	BAL	vs TEN		2.5	-5.2	1.6	1.0	14.3	0.1	0.2
106	Dyami Brown thin prior (35 touches)	WR	WAS	vs IND		2.4	-5.3	1.7	1.1	13.8	0.1	0.2
107	Calvin Ridley	WR	TEN	@ BAL		2.3	-5.4	1.9	1.1	13.2	0.1	0.2
108	Tory Horton thin prior (11 touches)	WR	SEA	vs LAC		2.3	-5.5	1.5	1.0	12.0	0.1	0.2
109	Mitchell Tinsley thin prior (12 touches)	WR	CIN	vs JAX		2.2	-5.5	1.6	0.9	12.4	0.1	0.2
110	Troy Franklin	WR	DEN	@ SF		2.2	-5.5	1.7	1.1	11.7	0.1	0.4
111	Kyle Williams thin prior (10 touches)	WR	NE	@ BUF		2.2	-5.5	1.6	1.0	12.3	0.1	0.2
112	Marquez Valdes-Scantling thin prior (36 touches)	WR	LAC	@ SEA		2.2	-5.6	1.9	1.0	11.7	0.1	0.2
113	Josh Cameron thin prior (0 touches)	WR	JAX	@ CIN		2.1	-5.6	1.7	0.9	11.9	0.1	0.2
114	Kevin Austin Jr. thin prior (18 touches)	WR	NO	vs ATL		2.1	-5.6	1.5	0.9	12.0	0.1	0.3
115	KaVontae Turpin thin prior (38 touches)	WR	DAL	@ HOU		2.1	-5.6	1.6	1.0	11.7	0.1	0.6
116	Treylon Burks thin prior (19 touches)	WR	WAS	vs IND		2.1	-5.7	1.5	0.9	11.9	0.1	0.2
117	Marvin Mims Jr. thin prior (48 touches)	WR	DEN	@ SF		2.1	-5.7	1.5	1.0	11.4	0.1	0.3
118	Jalen Tolbert thin prior (48 touches)	WR	MIA	@ MIN		2.1	-5.7	1.6	1.0	11.0	0.1	0.3
119	Jacob Cowing thin prior (2 touches)	WR	SF	vs DEN		1.9	-5.8	1.4	0.9	11.1	0.1	0.2
120	Cyrus Allen thin prior (0 touches)	WR	KC	@ LV		1.9	-5.8	1.6	0.9	10.7	0.1	0.2
121	Elijah Moore ⚠	WR	PHI	vs LA		1.9	-5.9	1.5	0.9	10.5	0.1	0.3
122	Zachariah Branch thin prior (0 touches)	WR	ATL	@ NO		1.8	-5.9	1.5	0.9	10.2	0.1	0.2
123	Isaiah Bond thin prior (22 touches)	WR	CLE	vs PIT		1.8	-6.0	1.4	0.8	10.5	0.1	0.2
124	Tutu Atwell thin prior (40 touches)	WR	LA	@ PHI		1.7	-6.0	1.3	0.8	10.1	0.1	0.2
125	Myles Price thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIN	vs MIA		1.7	-6.0	1.2	0.7	9.9	0.1	0.2
126	Jamaal Pritchett thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NYJ	@ CHI		1.7	-6.0	1.4	0.8	9.4	0.1	0.3
127	Zavion Thomas thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CHI	vs NYJ		1.6	-6.1	1.2	0.7	9.4	0.1	0.2
128	Bo Melton ⚠	WR	GB	@ TB		1.6	-6.1	1.2	0.7	9.0	0.1	0.2
129	Jalen Brooks thin prior (13 touches)	WR	ARI	@ NYG		1.6	-6.2	1.2	0.7	9.0	0.1	0.1
130	Deion Burks thin prior (0 touches)	WR	IND	@ WAS		1.6	-6.2	1.2	0.7	8.9	0.1	0.6
131	Jordan Watkins thin prior (2 touches)	WR	SF	vs DEN		1.6	-6.2	1.1	0.7	8.8	0.1	0.2
132	David Moore thin prior (19 touches)	WR	CAR	vs DET		1.5	-6.2	1.2	0.7	8.5	0.1	0.2
133	Tyquan Thornton thin prior (26 touches)	WR	KC	@ LV		1.5	-6.2	1.1	0.6	8.9	0.1	0.0
134	Ryan Miller thin prior (8 touches)	WR	MIA	@ MIN		1.5	-6.2	1.2	0.7	8.0	0.1	0.2
135	Dareke Young thin prior (2 touches)	WR	LV	vs KC		1.4	-6.3	1.0	0.6	8.3	0.1	0.1
136	Efton Chism III thin prior (2 touches)	WR	NE	@ BUF		1.4	-6.4	1.0	0.6	7.7	0.0	0.2
137	Tom Kennedy thin prior (2 touches)	WR	DET	@ CAR		1.2	-6.5	0.9	0.6	6.7	0.0	0.2
138	Braxton Berrios thin prior (12 touches)	WR	NYG	vs ARI		1.2	-6.5	0.9	0.6	6.7	0.0	0.2
139	Chris Blair thin prior (1 touches)	WR	ATL	@ NO		1.2	-6.6	0.9	0.5	6.5	0.0	0.2
140	Malik Benson thin prior (0 touches)	WR	LV	vs KC		1.2	-6.6	0.9	0.5	6.6	0.0	0.2
141	Jahdae Walker thin prior (5 touches)	WR	CHI	vs NYJ		1.1	-6.6	0.7	0.5	6.4	0.0	0.3
142	Chimere Dike thin prior (37 touches)	WR	TEN	@ BAL		1.1	-6.6	0.9	0.6	5.9	0.0	0.1
143	Derius Davis thin prior (10 touches)	WR	LAC	@ SEA		1.1	-6.6	0.8	0.6	5.8	0.0	0.2
144	Jeshaun Jones thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIN	vs MIA		1.0	-6.7	0.7	0.4	5.7	0.0	0.3
145	J. Michael Sturdivant thin prior (0 touches)	WR	GB	@ TB		0.9	-6.8	0.8	0.4	5.3	0.0	0.2
146	Travis Hunter ⚠	WR	JAX	@ CIN		0.9	-6.8	0.6	0.4	5.2	0.0	0.3
147	Charlie Jones thin prior (3 touches)	WR	NYG	vs ARI		0.9	-6.8	0.6	0.4	5.1	0.0	0.3
148	Ben Skowronek thin prior (7 touches)	WR	PIT	@ CLE		0.9	-6.8	0.7	0.4	4.9	0.0	0.2
149	Sterling Shepard thin prior (46 touches)	WR	NYJ	@ CHI		0.9	-6.8	0.7	0.5	4.7	0.0	0.3
150	Jonathan Mingo thin prior (32 touches)	WR	DAL	@ HOU		0.9	-6.9	0.8	0.4	4.8	0.0	0.2
151	Elijah Sarratt thin prior (0 touches)	WR	BAL	vs TEN		0.8	-6.9	0.6	0.3	4.8	0.0	0.3
152	Montorie Foster Jr thin prior (0 touches)	WR	SEA	vs LAC		0.6	-7.1	0.5	0.3	3.4	0.0	0.2
153	Tay Martin thin prior (2 touches)	WR	DET	@ CAR		0.6	-7.1	0.4	0.3	3.4	0.0	0.2
154	Barion Brown thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NO	vs ATL		0.6	-7.1	0.5	0.3	3.4	0.0	0.4
155	Simi Fehoko thin prior (5 touches)	WR	ARI	@ NYG		0.6	-7.2	0.4	0.3	3.3	0.0	0.1
156	Kameron Johnson thin prior (4 touches)	WR	TB	vs GB		0.6	-7.2	0.4	0.2	3.2	0.0	0.2
157	Nikko Remigio thin prior (2 touches)	WR	KC	@ LV		0.5	-7.2	0.4	0.2	2.9	0.0	0.1
158	Greg Dortch thin prior (40 touches)	WR	BUF	vs NE		0.5	-7.3	0.3	0.2	2.5	0.0	0.2
159	Malachi Corley thin prior (9 touches)	WR	CLE	vs PIT		0.5	-7.3	0.3	0.2	2.6	0.0	0.2
160	Britain Covey thin prior (6 touches)	WR	PHI	vs LA		0.5	-7.3	0.3	0.2	2.6	0.0	0.2
161	Jaylin Lane thin prior (16 touches)	WR	WAS	vs IND		0.4	-7.3	0.3	0.2	2.4	0.0	0.0
162	Devin Duvernay thin prior (9 touches)	WR	ARI	@ NYG		0.0	-7.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
163	Ja'Seem Reed thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CAR	vs DET		0.0	-7.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
164	Anthony Gould thin prior (1 touches)	WR	IND	@ WAS		0.0	-7.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
165	Nick Westbrook-Ikhine thin prior (37 touches)	WR	IND	@ WAS		0.0	-7.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
166	CJ Daniels thin prior (0 touches)	WR	LA	@ PHI		0.0	-7.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
167	Alex Bachman thin prior (2 touches)	WR	LA	@ PHI		0.0	-7.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
168	Kaden Wetjen thin prior (0 touches)	WR	PIT	@ CLE		0.0	-7.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
169	Malik Turner thin prior (0 touches)	WR	SF	vs DEN		0.0	-7.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
170	Brandon Aiyuk thin prior (35 touches)	WR	SF	vs DEN		0.0	-7.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

VORP = this player's points minus the points of the last startable player at his position (hover the VORP cell to see who). Baseline rank = teams × starters, with FLEX split RB/WR/TE 45/45/10.

Known limitations

Thin priors over-projected QBs. Efficiency comes from 2023–25, regressed toward the league average by sample size. Over Weeks 1–4, QB1s whose prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted dropbacks were projected +3.9 PPR a game too high (9 QBs; established QB1s +0.1). Those rows carry a thin prior chip. From Week 7 (model n8-v3) a QB's passing rates also read his own 2026 dropbacks, weighted against the prior's sample plus a fixed anchor, so a few snaps barely move them. On Weeks 5–6 this halved the thin-QB bias. Rushing rates and the game lines still use the prior: the game-level check of the same change failed.
Team pass volume is a 2023–25 prior too; in-season, only player shares blend toward what is observed. Blending team volume in-season was tested twice and lost to the prior both times.