NFL Player Projections

Week 1 — opponent-adjusted (this week's defence, home/away), availability-weighted, byes zeroed. Components (volume × efficiency) with scoring applied as a view. Model n8-v2 · updated 46d ago.

Week: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8• Season Position: All QB RB WR TE

Scoring: PPR Half Standard DK Rank by: VORP Points ⬇ CSV

League & scoring settings — server-side, from your stored component projections; the URL is the saved config

197 players · ranked by VORP under half_ppr scoring, 12-team league (1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1FLEX). thin prior (n) = the efficiency prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted 2023–25 dropbacks (QB) or 55 touches (RB/WR/TE), so the league average carries about half or more of the line's efficiency; ⚠ = low-sample / rookie (archetype-driven). A designation like Q · 60% means the line is weighted by that play probability; BYE rows project 0 and are kept visible.

Replacement level (VORP is measured against these): QB12 Patrick Mahomes · 17.1 pts · RB29 Ashton Jeanty · 9.2 pts · WR41 Jordan Addison · 8.0 pts · TE13 Colby Parkinson · 6.5 pts

#	Player	Pos	Tm	Opp	Status	Pts	VORP	Tgt	Rec	RecYd	RecTD	Car
1	Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	vs TB		15.6	+7.6	10.0	6.8	86.7	0.6	0.2
2	Puka Nacua	WR	LA	vs SF		15.0	+7.1	9.2	6.6	89.3	0.5	0.3
3	Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	vs NO		13.7	+5.7	8.7	6.1	74.2	0.5	0.3
4	CeeDee Lamb	WR	DAL	@ NYG		13.2	+5.2	9.1	6.1	77.5	0.4	0.4
5	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	SEA	vs NE		13.2	+5.2	8.1	5.6	77.3	0.4	0.2
6	Nico Collins	WR	HOU	vs BUF		12.1	+4.1	7.6	4.9	71.6	0.4	0.3
7	Jaylen Waddle ⚠	WR	DEN	@ KC		11.7	+3.8	8.2	5.4	67.8	0.4	0.3
8	Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	vs GB		11.7	+3.7	7.9	5.0	70.4	0.4	0.3
9	Alec Pierce	WR	IND	vs BAL		11.6	+3.6	7.0	4.1	70.7	0.4	0.3
10	DeVonta Smith	WR	PHI	vs WAS		11.5	+3.5	6.9	4.7	67.4	0.4	0.3
11	Ladd McConkey	WR	LAC	vs ARI		11.2	+3.2	7.1	4.6	63.8	0.4	0.3
12	Romeo Doubs ⚠	WR	NE	@ SEA		11.0	+3.0	8.0	5.1	59.2	0.4	0.3
13	Carnell Tate thin prior (0 touches)	WR	TEN	vs NYJ		10.4	+2.5	7.9	4.4	60.0	0.4	0.3
14	Chris Olave	WR	NO	@ DET		10.4	+2.5	7.8	5.0	57.5	0.4	0.3
15	Mike Evans ⚠	WR	SF	@ LA		10.4	+2.4	8.0	4.8	54.4	0.4	0.3
16	Zay Flowers	WR	BAL	@ IND		10.3	+2.4	6.9	4.7	61.3	0.3	0.3
17	DJ Moore ⚠	WR	BUF	@ HOU		10.3	+2.4	7.7	5.0	56.0	0.4	0.3
18	Brian Thomas Jr.	WR	JAX	vs CLE		10.3	+2.3	7.4	4.5	59.5	0.3	0.3
19	Rashee Rice	WR	KC	vs DEN		10.2	+2.2	6.9	4.8	55.6	0.4	0.2
20	Tre Tucker	WR	LV	vs MIA		10.1	+2.1	6.9	4.2	57.3	0.4	0.3
21	Drake London	WR	ATL	@ PIT		10.1	+2.1	7.3	4.6	56.4	0.4	0.3
22	Garrett Wilson	WR	NYJ	@ TEN		9.9	+1.9	7.4	4.6	54.4	0.4	0.2
23	Tetairoa McMillan	WR	CAR	vs CHI		9.8	+1.9	6.7	4.0	56.5	0.4	0.3
24	Tee Higgins	WR	CIN	vs TB		9.8	+1.8	6.0	3.8	52.6	0.4	0.2
25	DK Metcalf	WR	PIT	vs ATL		9.8	+1.8	6.3	3.8	57.3	0.4	0.3
26	Emeka Egbuka	WR	TB	@ CIN		9.6	+1.7	7.1	4.0	55.5	0.4	0.3
27	Christian Watson thin prior (54 touches)	WR	GB	@ MIN		9.5	+1.6	6.6	4.0	54.2	0.3	0.3
28	Jalen Nailor thin prior (40 touches)	WR	LV	vs MIA		9.4	+1.4	5.9	3.6	52.9	0.4	0.2
29	Kayshon Boutte thin prior (45 touches)	WR	HOU	vs BUF		9.4	+1.4	5.9	3.8	53.3	0.4	0.3
30	Jerry Jeudy	WR	CLE	@ JAX		9.3	+1.4	7.6	4.4	54.9	0.3	0.3
31	Terry McLaurin	WR	WAS	@ PHI		8.9	+1.0	6.6	4.2	48.9	0.3	0.3
32	Quentin Johnston	WR	LAC	vs ARI		8.7	+0.7	5.5	3.4	47.8	0.4	0.3
33	George Pickens	WR	DAL	@ NYG		8.6	+0.7	5.6	3.5	51.6	0.3	0.3
34	Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	ARI	@ LAC		8.6	+0.6	6.4	3.7	47.6	0.3	0.2
35	Luther Burden III thin prior (30 touches)	WR	CHI	@ CAR		8.5	+0.6	5.6	3.9	50.2	0.3	0.3
36	Jameson Williams	WR	DET	vs NO		8.4	+0.5	5.2	3.2	50.2	0.3	0.3
37	Courtland Sutton	WR	DEN	@ KC		8.3	+0.3	6.2	3.8	44.8	0.3	0.3
38	Josh Downs	WR	IND	vs BAL		8.2	+0.3	6.0	4.0	45.6	0.3	0.3
39	Malik Washington thin prior (43 touches)	WR	MIA	@ LV		8.1	+0.2	6.4	4.3	42.6	0.3	0.3
40	Malachi Fields thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NYG	vs DAL		8.1	+0.1	6.2	3.4	46.4	0.3	0.3
41	Jordan Addison	WR	MIN	vs GB		8.0	+0.0	5.3	3.2	44.7	0.3	0.3
42	Michael Pittman ⚠	WR	PIT	vs ATL		7.8	-0.2	5.5	3.7	43.0	0.3	0.3
43	Chris Godwin Jr.	WR	TB	@ CIN		7.7	-0.3	5.5	3.6	43.4	0.3	0.3
44	KC Concepcion thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CLE	@ JAX		7.6	-0.3	6.3	3.5	42.8	0.3	0.3
45	Parker Washington	WR	JAX	vs CLE		7.6	-0.4	5.4	3.4	42.7	0.3	0.3
46	Dontayvion Wicks ⚠	WR	PHI	vs WAS		7.5	-0.5	5.0	3.1	42.0	0.3	0.3
47	Jalen Coker thin prior (35 touches)	WR	CAR	vs CHI		7.4	-0.5	4.8	3.2	42.9	0.3	0.3
48	Michael Wilson	WR	ARI	@ LAC		7.4	-0.5	5.5	3.5	41.1	0.3	0.2
49	Malik Nabers	WR	NYG	vs DAL	Q · 78%	7.0	-1.0	4.9	3.0	39.6	0.3	0.2
50	Wan'Dale Robinson ⚠	WR	TEN	vs NYJ		7.0	-1.0	5.2	3.5	39.5	0.2	0.3
51	Jayden Reed thin prior (52 touches)	WR	GB	@ MIN		6.9	-1.0	4.8	3.3	38.1	0.2	0.3
52	Khalil Shakir	WR	BUF	@ HOU		6.8	-1.1	5.0	3.6	37.7	0.2	0.3
53	Caleb Douglas thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIA	@ LV		6.8	-1.1	5.6	3.1	38.4	0.2	0.3
54	Devaughn Vele thin prior (36 touches)	WR	NO	@ DET		6.8	-1.1	5.0	3.3	37.6	0.2	0.3
55	Stefon Diggs ⚠	WR	WAS	@ PHI		6.8	-1.2	5.2	3.8	36.6	0.2	0.3
56	Rashid Shaheed	WR	SEA	vs NE		6.7	-1.2	4.7	2.9	39.3	0.2	0.2
57	Xavier Worthy	WR	KC	vs DEN		6.7	-1.3	5.2	3.1	37.6	0.2	0.3
58	Davante Adams	WR	LA	vs SF		6.6	-1.3	5.2	3.0	33.2	0.3	0.3
59	Rome Odunze	WR	CHI	@ CAR	Q · 72%	6.5	-1.4	4.9	2.7	37.1	0.2	0.2
60	Jahan Dotson thin prior (44 touches)	WR	ATL	@ PIT		6.5	-1.4	5.2	3.1	36.7	0.2	0.3
61	DeMario Douglas	WR	NE	@ SEA		6.2	-1.8	4.7	3.1	34.4	0.2	0.3
62	Kalif Raymond thin prior (30 touches)	WR	CHI	@ CAR		5.9	-2.1	4.2	2.9	33.3	0.2	0.3
63	Deebo Samuel Sr.	WR	SF	@ LA		5.9	-2.1	4.3	2.9	32.0	0.2	0.5
64	Rashod Bateman thin prior (52 touches)	WR	BAL	@ IND		5.8	-2.2	4.1	2.4	31.8	0.2	0.3
65	Adonai Mitchell thin prior (54 touches)	WR	NYJ	@ TEN		5.8	-2.2	4.7	2.5	33.4	0.2	0.2
66	Andrei Iosivas thin prior (52 touches)	WR	CIN	vs TB		5.2	-2.8	3.6	2.2	28.8	0.2	0.2
67	Darnell Mooney ⚠	WR	NYG	vs DAL		5.2	-2.8	3.8	2.1	31.3	0.2	0.3
68	Ryan Flournoy thin prior (32 touches)	WR	DAL	@ NYG		5.0	-2.9	3.5	2.3	27.9	0.2	0.3
69	Jauan Jennings ⚠	WR	MIN	vs GB		4.9	-3.1	3.2	2.1	26.6	0.2	0.3
70	Ted Hurst III thin prior (0 touches)	WR	TB	@ CIN		4.8	-3.1	3.8	2.1	27.4	0.2	0.3
71	Jordan Whittington thin prior (21 touches)	WR	LA	vs SF		4.8	-3.2	3.3	2.2	27.8	0.1	0.3
72	Xavier Legette	WR	CAR	vs CHI		4.8	-3.2	3.6	2.1	25.8	0.2	0.3
73	Tyquan Thornton thin prior (26 touches)	WR	KC	vs DEN		4.7	-3.2	3.3	1.9	27.7	0.2	0.2
74	Jack Bech thin prior (14 touches)	WR	LV	vs MIA		4.7	-3.2	3.2	2.1	27.5	0.2	0.2
75	Denzel Boston thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CLE	@ JAX		4.7	-3.3	3.9	2.1	26.2	0.2	0.3
76	Tre Harris thin prior (22 touches)	WR	LAC	vs ARI		4.7	-3.3	3.2	2.1	26.8	0.2	0.3
77	Isaac TeSlaa thin prior (14 touches)	WR	DET	vs NO		4.6	-3.4	3.0	1.9	24.6	0.2	0.3
78	Kendrick Bourne thin prior (49 touches)	WR	ARI	@ LAC		4.5	-3.4	3.5	2.3	26.2	0.1	0.2
79	Roman Wilson thin prior (10 touches)	WR	PIT	vs ATL		4.5	-3.4	3.0	1.9	25.5	0.2	0.3
80	Jakobi Meyers	WR	JAX	vs CLE		4.4	-3.6	3.3	2.2	24.5	0.1	0.3
81	Omar Cooper Jr. thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NYJ	@ TEN		4.4	-3.6	3.5	1.9	24.9	0.2	0.2
82	Keenan Allen ⚠	WR	IND	vs BAL		4.3	-3.6	3.7	2.4	22.7	0.1	0.3
83	Xavier Hutchinson thin prior (40 touches)	WR	HOU	vs BUF		4.3	-3.7	3.2	1.9	24.0	0.2	0.3
84	Marvin Mims Jr. thin prior (48 touches)	WR	DEN	@ KC		4.3	-3.7	3.1	2.1	23.4	0.1	0.4
85	Barion Brown thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NO	@ DET		4.2	-3.7	3.6	2.0	23.7	0.1	0.3
86	Calvin Ridley	WR	TEN	vs NYJ		4.2	-3.7	3.2	1.8	25.2	0.1	0.3
87	Chris Bell thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIA	@ LV		4.2	-3.8	3.4	1.9	23.4	0.1	0.3
88	Makai Lemon thin prior (0 touches)	WR	PHI	vs WAS		4.1	-3.8	3.1	1.7	23.9	0.1	0.3
89	Olamide Zaccheaus ⚠	WR	ATL	@ PIT		4.0	-4.0	3.2	2.0	21.3	0.1	0.3
90	Keon Coleman thin prior (47 touches)	WR	BUF	@ HOU		3.9	-4.0	3.0	1.8	21.3	0.1	0.3
91	Cooper Kupp	WR	SEA	vs NE		3.9	-4.1	2.9	1.9	21.6	0.1	0.2
92	De'Zhaun Stribling thin prior (0 touches)	WR	SF	@ LA		3.8	-4.2	3.3	1.8	21.2	0.1	0.3
93	Matthew Golden thin prior (22 touches)	WR	GB	@ MIN		3.8	-4.2	3.1	2.0	21.5	0.1	0.3
94	Antonio Williams thin prior (0 touches)	WR	WAS	@ PHI		3.7	-4.3	3.2	1.8	20.3	0.1	0.3
95	Mack Hollins thin prior (54 touches)	WR	NE	@ SEA		3.6	-4.4	2.9	1.9	19.5	0.1	0.3
96	Ja'Kobi Lane thin prior (0 touches)	WR	BAL	@ IND		3.5	-4.5	2.8	1.6	19.6	0.1	0.3
97	KaVontae Turpin thin prior (38 touches)	WR	DAL	@ NYG		2.9	-5.1	2.0	1.3	16.3	0.1	0.5
98	Troy Franklin	WR	DEN	@ KC		2.6	-5.4	2.1	1.3	13.5	0.1	0.3
99	Tez Johnson thin prior (22 touches)	WR	TB	@ CIN		2.5	-5.5	1.7	1.1	13.2	0.1	0.3
100	Zavion Thomas thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CHI	@ CAR		2.4	-5.6	1.9	1.1	13.3	0.1	0.3
101	Chimere Dike thin prior (37 touches)	WR	TEN	vs NYJ		2.3	-5.6	1.7	1.1	12.7	0.1	0.3
102	Colbie Young thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CIN	vs TB		2.3	-5.7	1.8	1.0	13.1	0.1	0.2
103	Travis Hunter ⚠	WR	JAX	vs CLE		2.3	-5.7	1.7	1.1	12.8	0.1	0.3
104	Ashton Dulin thin prior (7 touches)	WR	IND	vs BAL		2.3	-5.7	1.6	0.9	13.1	0.1	0.3
105	Jaylin Noel thin prior (18 touches)	WR	HOU	vs BUF		2.2	-5.7	1.5	1.0	12.5	0.1	0.3
106	Jimmy Horn Jr. thin prior (8 touches)	WR	CAR	vs CHI		2.2	-5.8	1.5	1.0	12.5	0.1	0.3
107	Konata Mumpfield thin prior (12 touches)	WR	LA	vs SF		2.2	-5.8	1.6	1.0	12.2	0.1	0.3
108	Brenen Thompson thin prior (0 touches)	WR	LAC	vs ARI		2.2	-5.8	1.7	0.9	12.5	0.1	0.3
109	Odell Beckham Jr. thin prior (18 touches)	WR	NYG	vs DAL		2.2	-5.8	1.7	1.0	12.1	0.1	0.3
110	Malik Benson thin prior (0 touches)	WR	LV	vs MIA		2.2	-5.8	1.6	0.9	12.4	0.1	0.2
111	Cyrus Allen thin prior (0 touches)	WR	KC	vs DEN		2.1	-5.9	1.7	0.9	11.8	0.1	0.2
112	Tai Felton thin prior (2 touches)	WR	MIN	vs GB		2.1	-5.9	1.5	0.9	11.9	0.1	0.3
113	Isaiah Bond thin prior (22 touches)	WR	CLE	@ JAX		2.1	-5.9	1.7	0.9	12.1	0.1	0.3
114	Tom Kennedy thin prior (2 touches)	WR	DET	vs NO		2.1	-5.9	1.5	1.0	11.7	0.1	0.3
115	Marquise Brown ⚠	WR	PHI	vs WAS		2.1	-5.9	1.4	0.9	11.6	0.1	0.3
116	Isaiah Williams thin prior (19 touches)	WR	NYJ	@ TEN		2.0	-6.0	1.5	1.0	11.1	0.1	0.2
117	Skyy Moore thin prior (12 touches)	WR	GB	@ MIN		2.0	-6.0	1.6	1.0	11.1	0.1	0.3
118	Jalen Brooks thin prior (13 touches)	WR	ARI	@ LAC		2.0	-6.0	1.5	0.9	11.0	0.1	0.2
119	Germie Bernard thin prior (0 touches)	WR	PIT	vs ATL		2.0	-6.0	1.5	0.8	11.2	0.1	0.3
120	Pat Bryant thin prior (24 touches)	WR	DEN	@ KC		1.9	-6.0	1.5	0.9	11.0	0.1	0.3
121	Bryce Lance thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NO	@ DET		1.9	-6.0	1.6	0.9	10.8	0.1	0.3
122	Kyle Williams thin prior (10 touches)	WR	NE	@ SEA		1.9	-6.1	1.4	0.8	10.5	0.1	0.3
123	Kevin Coleman Jr. thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIA	@ LV		1.9	-6.1	1.6	0.9	10.7	0.1	0.3
124	Montorie Foster Jr thin prior (0 touches)	WR	SEA	vs NE		1.9	-6.1	1.5	0.8	10.7	0.1	0.2
125	Demarcus Robinson thin prior (44 touches)	WR	SF	@ LA		1.8	-6.2	1.4	0.8	9.5	0.1	0.3
126	Josh Palmer thin prior (50 touches)	WR	BUF	@ HOU		1.7	-6.2	1.4	0.8	10.3	0.0	0.3
127	Zachariah Branch thin prior (0 touches)	WR	ATL	@ PIT		1.7	-6.2	1.4	0.8	9.6	0.1	0.3
128	Chris Moore thin prior (18 touches)	WR	BAL	@ IND		1.7	-6.3	1.3	0.8	9.8	0.1	0.3
129	Dyami Brown thin prior (35 touches)	WR	WAS	@ PHI		1.7	-6.3	1.4	0.9	9.4	0.1	0.3
130	Elic Ayomanor thin prior (44 touches)	WR	TEN	vs NYJ		1.7	-6.3	1.2	0.7	9.4	0.1	0.3
131	Jahdae Walker thin prior (5 touches)	WR	CHI	@ CAR		1.1	-6.9	0.7	0.5	5.9	0.0	0.3
132	Xavier Smith thin prior (13 touches)	WR	LA	vs SF		1.1	-6.9	0.7	0.5	6.4	0.0	0.3
133	Dalen Cambre thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NYG	vs DAL		1.0	-6.9	0.7	0.4	5.9	0.0	0.3
134	Tylan Wallace thin prior (8 touches)	WR	CLE	@ JAX		1.0	-7.0	0.7	0.4	5.6	0.0	0.3
135	Dareke Young thin prior (2 touches)	WR	LV	vs MIA		1.0	-7.0	0.7	0.4	5.8	0.0	0.2
136	Kameron Johnson thin prior (4 touches)	WR	TB	@ CIN		1.0	-7.0	0.7	0.4	5.5	0.0	0.3
137	Brycen Tremayne thin prior (9 touches)	WR	CAR	vs CHI		0.9	-7.0	0.6	0.4	5.4	0.0	0.3
138	KeAndre Lambert-Smith thin prior (6 touches)	WR	LAC	vs ARI		0.9	-7.0	0.6	0.4	5.3	0.0	0.3
139	Kevin Austin Jr. thin prior (18 touches)	WR	NO	@ DET		0.9	-7.0	0.7	0.4	5.2	0.0	0.3
140	Dohnte Meyers thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CIN	vs TB		0.9	-7.0	0.7	0.4	5.2	0.0	0.2
141	Jared Wayne thin prior (1 touches)	WR	HOU	vs BUF		0.9	-7.0	0.7	0.4	5.2	0.0	0.3
142	Jalen Royals thin prior (2 touches)	WR	KC	vs DEN		0.9	-7.0	0.7	0.4	5.1	0.0	0.2
143	Laquon Treadwell thin prior (1 touches)	WR	IND	vs BAL		0.9	-7.0	0.7	0.4	5.1	0.0	0.3
144	Bo Melton ⚠	WR	GB	@ MIN		0.9	-7.1	0.7	0.4	4.9	0.0	0.3
145	Tay Martin thin prior (2 touches)	WR	DET	vs NO		0.9	-7.1	0.6	0.4	5.0	0.0	0.3
146	Ben Skowronek thin prior (7 touches)	WR	PIT	vs ATL		0.9	-7.1	0.6	0.4	5.1	0.0	0.3
147	Ryan Miller thin prior (8 touches)	WR	MIA	@ LV		0.9	-7.1	0.6	0.4	4.8	0.0	0.3
148	Myles Price thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIN	vs GB		0.9	-7.1	0.6	0.4	4.9	0.0	0.3
149	A.J. Brown ⚠	WR	NE	@ SEA		0.8	-7.1	0.6	0.4	4.8	0.0	0.3
150	Irvin Charles thin prior (0 touches)	WR	SEA	vs NE		0.8	-7.1	0.6	0.4	4.8	0.0	0.2
151	Jonathan Mingo thin prior (32 touches)	WR	DAL	@ NYG		0.8	-7.1	0.7	0.4	4.8	0.0	0.3
152	Josh Cameron thin prior (0 touches)	WR	JAX	vs CLE		0.8	-7.1	0.7	0.4	4.7	0.0	0.3
153	Arian Smith thin prior (8 touches)	WR	NYJ	@ TEN		0.8	-7.1	0.6	0.4	4.7	0.0	0.2
154	Darius Cooper thin prior (6 touches)	WR	PHI	vs WAS		0.8	-7.1	0.5	0.4	4.8	0.0	0.3
155	Devin Duvernay thin prior (9 touches)	WR	ARI	@ LAC		0.8	-7.2	0.6	0.4	4.4	0.0	0.2
156	Jaylin Lane thin prior (16 touches)	WR	WAS	@ PHI		0.8	-7.2	0.6	0.4	4.5	0.0	0.3
157	Chris Blair thin prior (1 touches)	WR	ATL	@ PIT		0.8	-7.2	0.6	0.4	4.4	0.0	0.3
158	Jacob Cowing thin prior (2 touches)	WR	SF	@ LA		0.8	-7.2	0.6	0.4	4.4	0.0	0.3
159	Greg Dortch thin prior (40 touches)	WR	BUF	@ HOU		0.7	-7.2	0.6	0.4	3.8	0.0	0.3
160	LaJohntay Wester thin prior (0 touches)	WR	BAL	@ IND		0.7	-7.2	0.5	0.3	4.0	0.0	0.3
161	Simi Fehoko thin prior (5 touches)	WR	ARI	@ LAC		0.0	-8.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
162	Beaux Collins thin prior (3 touches)	WR	ATL	@ PIT		0.0	-8.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
163	Chris Brazzell II thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CAR	vs CHI		0.0	-8.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
164	Kaden Davis thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CHI	@ CAR		0.0	-8.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
165	Malachi Corley thin prior (9 touches)	WR	CLE	@ JAX		0.0	-8.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
166	Lil'Jordan Humphrey thin prior (30 touches)	WR	DEN	@ KC		0.0	-8.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
167	Kendrick Law thin prior (0 touches)	WR	DET	vs NO		0.0	-8.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
168	Savion Williams thin prior (5 touches)	WR	GB	@ MIN		0.0	-8.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
169	Tank Dell thin prior (39 touches)	WR	HOU	vs BUF		0.0	-8.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
170	Jayden Higgins thin prior (34 touches)	WR	HOU	vs BUF		0.0	-8.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
171	Deion Burks thin prior (0 touches)	WR	IND	vs BAL		0.0	-8.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
172	D.J. Montgomery thin prior (2 touches)	WR	IND	vs BAL		0.0	-8.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
173	CJ Williams thin prior (0 touches)	WR	JAX	vs CLE		0.0	-8.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
174	Nikko Remigio thin prior (2 touches)	WR	KC	vs DEN		0.0	-8.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
175	Jeff Caldwell thin prior (0 touches)	WR	KC	vs DEN		0.0	-8.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
176	Jimmy Holiday thin prior (0 touches)	WR	KC	vs DEN		0.0	-8.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
177	Derius Davis thin prior (10 touches)	WR	LAC	vs ARI		0.0	-8.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
178	Cody White thin prior (3 touches)	WR	LV	vs MIA		0.0	-8.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
179	Dont'e Thornton Jr. thin prior (15 touches)	WR	LV	vs MIA		0.0	-8.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
180	Justin Shorter thin prior (0 touches)	WR	LV	vs MIA		0.0	-8.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
181	Corey Rucker thin prior (0 touches)	WR	LV	vs MIA		0.0	-8.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
182	Jeshaun Jones thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIN	vs GB		0.0	-8.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
183	Jeremiah Webb thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NE	@ SEA		0.0	-8.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
184	Jordyn Tyson thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NO	@ DET		0.0	-8.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
185	Mason Tipton thin prior (16 touches)	WR	NO	@ DET		0.0	-8.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
186	Braxton Berrios thin prior (12 touches)	WR	NYG	vs DAL		0.0	-8.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
187	Calvin Austin III thin prior (51 touches)	WR	NYG	vs DAL		0.0	-8.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
188	Gunner Olszewski thin prior (7 touches)	WR	NYG	vs DAL		0.0	-8.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
189	Britain Covey thin prior (6 touches)	WR	PHI	vs WAS		0.0	-8.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
190	Johnny Wilson thin prior (4 touches)	WR	PHI	vs WAS		0.0	-8.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
191	Kaden Wetjen thin prior (0 touches)	WR	PIT	vs ATL		0.0	-8.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
192	Cole Burgess thin prior (0 touches)	WR	PIT	vs ATL		0.0	-8.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
193	Jake Bobo thin prior (11 touches)	WR	SEA	vs NE		0.0	-8.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
194	Christian Kirk	WR	SF	@ LA		0.0	-8.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
195	Brandon Aiyuk thin prior (35 touches)	WR	SF	@ LA		0.0	-8.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
196	Ricky Pearsall thin prior (40 touches)	WR	SF	@ LA		0.0	-8.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
197	David Sills thin prior (18 touches)	WR	TB	@ CIN		0.0	-8.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

VORP = this player's points minus the points of the last startable player at his position (hover the VORP cell to see who). Baseline rank = teams × starters, with FLEX split RB/WR/TE 45/45/10.

Known limitations

Thin priors over-projected QBs. Efficiency comes from 2023–25, regressed toward the league average by sample size. Over Weeks 1–4, QB1s whose prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted dropbacks were projected +3.9 PPR a game too high (9 QBs; established QB1s +0.1). Those rows carry a thin prior chip. From Week 7 (model n8-v3) a QB's passing rates also read his own 2026 dropbacks, weighted against the prior's sample plus a fixed anchor, so a few snaps barely move them. On Weeks 5–6 this halved the thin-QB bias. Rushing rates and the game lines still use the prior: the game-level check of the same change failed.
Team pass volume is a 2023–25 prior too; in-season, only player shares blend toward what is observed. Blending team volume in-season was tested twice and lost to the prior both times.