NFL Player Projections

Week 8 — opponent-adjusted (this week's defence, home/away), availability-weighted, byes zeroed. Components (volume × efficiency) with scoring applied as a view. Model n8-v3 · updated 4h ago.

Week: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8• Season Position: All QB RB WR TE

Scoring: PPR Half Standard DK Rank by: VORP Points ⬇ CSV

League & scoring settings — server-side, from your stored component projections; the URL is the saved config

186 players · ranked by VORP under dk_classic scoring, 12-team league (1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1FLEX). thin prior (n) = the efficiency prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted 2023–25 dropbacks (QB) or 55 touches (RB/WR/TE), so the league average carries about half or more of the line's efficiency; ⚠ = low-sample / rookie (archetype-driven). A designation like Q · 60% means the line is weighted by that play probability; BYE rows project 0 and are kept visible.

Replacement level (VORP is measured against these): QB12 Sam Darnold · 16.8 pts · RB29 Jaydon Blue · 8.2 pts · WR41 Xavier Worthy · 8.6 pts · TE13 Hunter Henry · 8.1 pts

#	Player	Pos	Tm	Opp	Status	Pts	VORP	Tgt	Rec	RecYd	RecTD	Car
1	Puka Nacua	WR	LA	vs LAC		19.4	+10.8	10.0	7.1	93.2	0.5	0.7
2	CeeDee Lamb	WR	DAL	vs ARI		18.6	+9.9	9.9	6.5	91.6	0.5	0.3
3	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	SEA	vs CHI		18.3	+9.7	9.3	6.5	88.5	0.5	0.3
4	Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	vs MIN		17.1	+8.4	9.2	6.5	74.0	0.5	0.2
5	Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	vs TEN		16.2	+7.6	8.3	5.6	75.7	0.5	0.1
6	Tee Higgins	WR	CIN	vs TEN		14.5	+5.9	7.2	4.5	66.3	0.6	0.1
7	A.J. Brown ⚠	WR	NE	@ MIA		14.4	+5.8	7.7	5.0	68.4	0.4	0.2
8	DeVonta Smith	WR	PHI	@ WAS		14.0	+5.4	7.3	5.0	66.5	0.4	0.2
9	Drake London	WR	ATL	@ TB		14.0	+5.4	8.2	5.1	64.6	0.4	0.3
10	Parker Washington	WR	JAX	vs IND		13.8	+5.2	7.5	4.7	65.7	0.4	0.2
11	Jaylen Waddle ⚠	WR	DEN	vs KC		13.6	+5.0	7.5	4.9	65.8	0.4	0.3
12	George Pickens	WR	DAL	vs ARI		13.3	+4.7	6.7	4.3	68.0	0.4	0.1
13	Zay Flowers	WR	BAL	@ BUF		12.8	+4.2	7.2	4.9	60.6	0.3	0.4
14	Michael Wilson	WR	ARI	@ DAL		12.7	+4.1	7.2	4.6	58.4	0.4	0.2
15	Emeka Egbuka	WR	TB	vs ATL		12.6	+4.0	7.5	4.2	60.9	0.4	0.3
16	Stefon Diggs ⚠	WR	WAS	vs PHI		12.3	+3.7	7.1	5.1	53.7	0.3	0.1
17	Tetairoa McMillan	WR	CAR	@ GB		12.1	+3.4	7.2	4.3	56.1	0.4	0.1
18	Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	@ DET		11.9	+3.3	7.1	4.5	57.2	0.3	0.2
19	DK Metcalf	WR	PIT	vs CLE		11.8	+3.2	6.8	4.1	56.0	0.3	0.2
20	Christian Watson thin prior (54 touches)	WR	GB	vs CAR		11.4	+2.8	5.7	3.5	57.2	0.4	0.1
21	Carnell Tate thin prior (0 touches)	WR	TEN	@ CIN		11.4	+2.8	7.4	4.1	52.9	0.3	0.1
22	Malik Washington thin prior (43 touches)	WR	MIA	vs NE		11.1	+2.5	6.7	4.4	47.0	0.3	0.9
23	DJ Moore ⚠	WR	BUF	vs BAL		10.9	+2.3	6.1	3.9	49.7	0.3	0.4
24	Rashee Rice	WR	KC	@ DEN		10.8	+2.2	6.2	4.3	46.6	0.3	0.1
25	Garrett Wilson	WR	NYJ	vs LV		10.5	+1.9	6.3	3.9	47.5	0.3	0.1
26	Jalen Coker thin prior (35 touches)	WR	CAR	@ GB		10.5	+1.9	5.8	3.9	48.4	0.3	0.1
27	Luther Burden III thin prior (30 touches)	WR	CHI	@ SEA		10.4	+1.8	5.9	4.1	48.4	0.2	0.6
28	Denzel Boston thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CLE	@ PIT		10.2	+1.6	7.0	3.9	46.4	0.3	0.1
29	Jameson Williams	WR	DET	vs MIN		9.9	+1.3	5.3	3.3	48.4	0.3	0.1
30	Josh Downs	WR	IND	@ JAX		9.6	+1.0	5.9	3.9	42.0	0.3	0.2
31	Tre Tucker	WR	LV	@ NYJ		9.6	+0.9	5.6	3.5	44.0	0.3	0.3
32	Khalil Shakir	WR	BUF	vs BAL		9.5	+0.9	5.2	3.7	43.4	0.2	0.1
33	Courtland Sutton	WR	DEN	vs KC		9.5	+0.9	5.5	3.4	42.9	0.3	0.1
34	Chris Godwin Jr.	WR	TB	vs ATL		9.3	+0.7	5.2	3.5	43.2	0.3	0.3
35	Wan'Dale Robinson ⚠	WR	TEN	@ CIN		9.2	+0.6	5.8	3.8	40.7	0.2	0.2
36	KC Concepcion thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CLE	@ PIT		9.2	+0.6	6.3	3.5	41.7	0.3	0.8
37	Rome Odunze	WR	CHI	@ SEA		9.0	+0.4	5.9	3.3	41.2	0.3	0.1
38	Jordan Addison	WR	MIN	@ DET		8.8	+0.2	5.2	3.1	39.8	0.3	0.3
39	DeMario Douglas	WR	NE	@ MIA		8.7	+0.1	5.0	3.3	40.0	0.2	0.1
40	Kendrick Bourne thin prior (49 touches)	WR	ARI	@ DAL		8.6	+0.0	5.0	3.4	40.8	0.2	0.1
41	Xavier Worthy	WR	KC	@ DEN		8.6	+0.0	5.7	3.4	38.1	0.2	0.1
42	Jakobi Meyers	WR	JAX	vs IND		8.5	-0.1	4.9	3.2	39.5	0.2	0.2
43	Ryan Flournoy thin prior (32 touches)	WR	DAL	vs ARI		8.4	-0.2	4.5	3.0	39.3	0.3	0.1
44	Ladd McConkey	WR	LAC	@ LA		8.3	-0.3	4.8	3.1	37.2	0.2	0.1
45	Keenan Allen ⚠	WR	IND	@ JAX		8.2	-0.4	5.6	3.7	33.1	0.2	0.1
46	Caleb Douglas thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIA	vs NE		7.9	-0.7	5.1	2.8	37.2	0.2	0.2
47	Germie Bernard thin prior (0 touches)	WR	PIT	vs CLE		7.9	-0.7	5.4	3.0	36.0	0.2	0.2
48	Quentin Johnston	WR	LAC	@ LA		7.8	-0.8	4.6	2.8	34.1	0.3	0.3
49	Jalen Nailor thin prior (40 touches)	WR	LV	@ NYJ		7.7	-0.9	4.2	2.6	35.6	0.3	0.1
50	Dontayvion Wicks ⚠	WR	PHI	@ WAS		7.6	-1.0	4.4	2.7	34.6	0.2	0.2
51	Matthew Golden thin prior (22 touches)	WR	GB	vs CAR	Q · 72%	7.5	-1.1	4.3	2.7	36.6	0.2	0.1
52	Rashid Shaheed	WR	SEA	vs CHI		7.2	-1.4	4.1	2.5	34.4	0.2	0.3
53	Savion Williams thin prior (5 touches)	WR	GB	vs CAR		7.0	-1.6	3.8	2.5	32.2	0.2	0.8
54	Tre Harris thin prior (22 touches)	WR	LAC	@ LA		6.9	-1.7	4.2	2.7	30.7	0.2	0.1
55	Jahan Dotson thin prior (44 touches)	WR	ATL	@ TB		6.8	-1.8	4.4	2.6	31.4	0.2	0.1
56	Omar Cooper Jr. thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NYJ	vs LV		6.8	-1.8	4.3	2.4	31.9	0.2	0.1
57	Kalif Raymond thin prior (30 touches)	WR	CHI	@ SEA		6.7	-1.9	4.0	2.8	29.6	0.2	0.2
58	Antonio Williams thin prior (0 touches)	WR	WAS	vs PHI		6.7	-2.0	4.5	2.5	30.4	0.2	0.1
59	Konata Mumpfield thin prior (12 touches)	WR	LA	vs LAC		6.4	-2.2	3.9	2.3	28.6	0.2	0.1
60	Keon Coleman thin prior (47 touches)	WR	BUF	vs BAL		6.2	-2.4	3.6	2.2	28.6	0.2	0.1
61	Jerry Jeudy	WR	CLE	@ PIT		6.2	-2.4	4.1	2.4	29.4	0.1	0.1
62	Ted Hurst III thin prior (0 touches)	WR	TB	vs ATL		6.1	-2.5	3.9	2.2	28.9	0.2	0.1
63	Brian Thomas Jr.	WR	JAX	vs IND		6.0	-2.6	3.3	2.0	29.7	0.2	0.1
64	Rashod Bateman thin prior (52 touches)	WR	BAL	@ BUF		5.7	-2.9	3.4	2.0	25.5	0.2	0.1
65	Makai Lemon thin prior (0 touches)	WR	PHI	@ WAS		5.7	-3.0	3.6	2.0	26.5	0.2	0.3
66	Dohnte Meyers thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CIN	vs TEN		5.6	-3.0	3.5	1.9	26.8	0.2	0.2
67	Adonai Mitchell thin prior (54 touches)	WR	NYJ	vs LV		5.5	-3.2	3.6	1.9	26.4	0.2	0.1
68	Cooper Kupp	WR	SEA	vs CHI		5.4	-3.2	3.2	2.1	24.1	0.1	0.1
69	Isaac TeSlaa thin prior (14 touches)	WR	DET	vs MIN		5.2	-3.4	3.0	1.8	22.9	0.2	0.1
70	Efton Chism III thin prior (2 touches)	WR	NE	@ MIA		5.2	-3.4	2.9	1.9	24.5	0.2	0.2
71	Chris Bell thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIA	vs NE		5.2	-3.4	3.3	1.9	24.5	0.2	0.2
72	Laquon Treadwell thin prior (1 touches)	WR	IND	@ JAX		5.1	-3.5	3.1	2.0	22.9	0.1	0.1
73	Reggie Virgil thin prior (0 touches)	WR	ARI	@ DAL		5.0	-3.6	3.3	1.8	23.1	0.1	0.1
74	Treylon Burks thin prior (19 touches)	WR	WAS	vs PHI		4.8	-3.9	3.0	1.8	21.9	0.1	0.1
75	Cody White thin prior (3 touches)	WR	LV	@ NYJ		4.6	-4.0	2.5	1.6	22.1	0.1	0.1
76	Elic Ayomanor thin prior (44 touches)	WR	TEN	@ CIN		4.6	-4.0	3.0	1.6	20.9	0.1	0.1
77	Ja'Kobi Lane thin prior (0 touches)	WR	BAL	@ BUF		4.4	-4.2	3.0	1.7	20.0	0.1	0.2
78	Kevin Coleman Jr. thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIA	vs NE		4.4	-4.2	2.8	1.6	20.5	0.1	0.1
79	Josh Cameron thin prior (0 touches)	WR	JAX	vs IND		4.2	-4.4	2.7	1.5	20.0	0.1	0.1
80	KeAndre Lambert-Smith thin prior (6 touches)	WR	LAC	@ LA		4.2	-4.5	2.6	1.6	18.4	0.1	0.2
81	Jalen Royals thin prior (2 touches)	WR	KC	@ DEN		4.1	-4.5	2.5	1.6	18.0	0.1	0.1
82	Marvin Mims Jr. thin prior (48 touches)	WR	DEN	vs KC		4.0	-4.6	2.2	1.5	18.1	0.1	0.4
83	Ben Skowronek thin prior (7 touches)	WR	PIT	vs CLE		4.0	-4.6	2.3	1.5	18.1	0.1	0.1
84	Olamide Zaccheaus ⚠	WR	ATL	@ TB		4.0	-4.6	2.5	1.6	17.1	0.1	0.1
85	Troy Franklin	WR	DEN	vs KC		4.0	-4.6	2.4	1.5	17.3	0.1	0.2
86	Mitchell Tinsley thin prior (12 touches)	WR	CIN	vs TEN		3.8	-4.8	2.2	1.3	18.0	0.1	0.2
87	Jauan Jennings ⚠	WR	MIN	@ DET		3.8	-4.8	2.2	1.4	16.4	0.1	0.1
88	Tez Johnson thin prior (22 touches)	WR	TB	vs ATL		3.8	-4.9	2.1	1.3	16.9	0.1	0.3
89	Brycen Tremayne thin prior (9 touches)	WR	CAR	@ GB		3.6	-5.0	2.1	1.4	16.7	0.1	0.1
90	John Metchie III thin prior (41 touches)	WR	CAR	@ GB		3.6	-5.0	2.3	1.5	15.7	0.1	0.1
91	Jordan Whittington thin prior (21 touches)	WR	LA	vs LAC		3.4	-5.3	1.9	1.3	15.6	0.1	0.1
92	Josh Palmer thin prior (50 touches)	WR	BUF	vs BAL		3.3	-5.3	1.9	1.2	16.5	0.1	0.1
93	Dyami Brown thin prior (35 touches)	WR	WAS	vs PHI		3.3	-5.3	2.0	1.3	14.9	0.1	0.1
94	Calvin Ridley	WR	TEN	@ CIN		3.1	-5.5	2.0	1.1	15.1	0.1	0.1
95	Isaiah Bond thin prior (22 touches)	WR	CLE	@ PIT		3.1	-5.5	2.1	1.2	14.8	0.1	0.1
96	Darius Cooper thin prior (6 touches)	WR	PHI	@ WAS		3.1	-5.5	1.8	1.1	14.6	0.1	0.1
97	Tory Horton thin prior (11 touches)	WR	SEA	vs CHI		3.1	-5.5	1.7	1.0	13.6	0.1	0.1
98	Ashton Dulin thin prior (7 touches)	WR	IND	@ JAX		3.0	-5.6	1.8	1.1	14.3	0.1	0.1
99	Tim Patrick thin prior (25 touches)	WR	NYJ	vs LV		3.0	-5.6	1.7	1.1	13.2	0.1	0.1
100	Kyle Williams thin prior (10 touches)	WR	NE	@ MIA		2.9	-5.7	1.7	1.0	13.7	0.1	0.1
101	Bo Melton ⚠	WR	GB	vs CAR		2.8	-5.8	1.6	1.0	13.3	0.1	0.1
102	Tutu Atwell thin prior (40 touches)	WR	LA	vs LAC		2.6	-6.0	1.5	0.9	12.9	0.1	0.1
103	Zachariah Branch thin prior (0 touches)	WR	ATL	@ TB		2.5	-6.1	1.7	0.9	11.7	0.1	0.2
104	KaVontae Turpin thin prior (38 touches)	WR	DAL	vs ARI		2.5	-6.1	1.4	0.9	12.3	0.1	0.4
105	Tai Felton thin prior (2 touches)	WR	MIN	@ DET		2.5	-6.1	1.5	1.0	11.3	0.1	0.1
106	Devontez Walker thin prior (5 touches)	WR	BAL	@ BUF		2.5	-6.2	1.4	0.9	11.1	0.1	0.1
107	Cyrus Allen thin prior (0 touches)	WR	KC	@ DEN		2.4	-6.3	1.6	0.9	10.5	0.1	0.1
108	Isaiah Williams thin prior (19 touches)	WR	NYJ	vs LV		2.3	-6.3	1.3	0.9	10.2	0.1	0.3
109	Dont'e Thornton Jr. thin prior (15 touches)	WR	LV	@ NYJ		2.1	-6.5	1.4	0.8	10.0	0.1	0.2
110	Jared Wayne thin prior (1 touches)	WR	MIA	vs NE		2.0	-6.6	1.1	0.7	9.4	0.1	0.0
111	Lil'Jordan Humphrey thin prior (30 touches)	WR	DEN	vs KC		1.9	-6.7	1.1	0.7	8.6	0.1	0.1
112	Jalen Tolbert thin prior (48 touches)	WR	MIA	vs NE		1.8	-6.8	1.0	0.6	8.0	0.1	0.2
113	Travis Hunter ⚠	WR	JAX	vs IND		1.7	-6.9	1.0	0.6	8.0	0.1	0.2
114	Brenen Thompson thin prior (0 touches)	WR	LAC	@ LA		1.7	-6.9	1.2	0.6	7.5	0.0	0.2
115	Chimere Dike thin prior (37 touches)	WR	TEN	@ CIN		1.7	-6.9	1.0	0.6	7.2	0.1	0.1
116	Jonathan Mingo thin prior (32 touches)	WR	DAL	vs ARI		1.7	-6.9	1.1	0.6	7.9	0.0	0.1
117	Marquise Brown ⚠	WR	PHI	@ WAS		1.7	-7.0	1.0	0.6	7.5	0.1	0.7
118	Zavion Thomas thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CHI	@ SEA		1.6	-7.0	1.1	0.6	7.3	0.0	0.2
119	Myles Price thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIN	@ DET		1.6	-7.0	1.0	0.6	7.2	0.0	0.2
120	Deion Burks thin prior (0 touches)	WR	IND	@ JAX		1.4	-7.3	0.9	0.5	6.2	0.0	0.4
121	Malik Benson thin prior (0 touches)	WR	LV	@ NYJ		1.3	-7.3	0.9	0.5	6.1	0.0	0.2
122	Colbie Young thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CIN	vs TEN		1.3	-7.3	0.8	0.4	6.2	0.0	0.2
123	Tay Martin thin prior (2 touches)	WR	DET	vs MIN		1.3	-7.3	0.8	0.5	5.9	0.0	0.1
124	David Moore thin prior (19 touches)	WR	CAR	@ GB		1.2	-7.4	0.8	0.5	5.4	0.0	0.1
125	Chris Blair thin prior (1 touches)	WR	ATL	@ TB		1.1	-7.5	0.7	0.4	5.3	0.0	0.1
126	Theo Wease Jr. thin prior (5 touches)	WR	LAC	@ LA		1.1	-7.5	0.7	0.4	5.3	0.0	0.0
127	J. Michael Sturdivant thin prior (0 touches)	WR	GB	vs CAR		1.1	-7.5	0.7	0.4	5.3	0.0	0.1
128	Simi Fehoko thin prior (5 touches)	WR	ARI	@ DAL		1.1	-7.5	0.7	0.4	5.2	0.0	0.1
129	CJ Daniels thin prior (0 touches)	WR	LA	vs LAC		1.0	-7.6	0.7	0.4	4.8	0.0	0.2
130	Tylan Wallace thin prior (8 touches)	WR	CLE	@ PIT		1.0	-7.6	0.6	0.4	4.6	0.0	0.2
131	Andrew Armstrong thin prior (0 touches)	WR	KC	@ DEN		1.0	-7.6	0.7	0.4	4.4	0.0	0.0
132	LaJohntay Wester thin prior (0 touches)	WR	BAL	@ BUF		0.9	-7.7	0.6	0.4	4.2	0.0	0.1
133	Jahdae Walker thin prior (5 touches)	WR	CHI	@ SEA		0.9	-7.7	0.6	0.4	4.2	0.0	0.1
134	Luke McCaffrey thin prior (15 touches)	WR	WAS	vs PHI		0.9	-7.7	0.5	0.3	4.1	0.0	0.2
135	Skyler Bell thin prior (0 touches)	WR	BUF	vs BAL		0.9	-7.7	0.6	0.3	4.0	0.0	0.0
136	David Sills thin prior (18 touches)	WR	TB	vs ATL		0.9	-7.7	0.5	0.3	3.9	0.0	0.2
137	Kaden Wetjen thin prior (0 touches)	WR	PIT	vs CLE		0.8	-7.8	0.6	0.3	3.7	0.0	0.1
138	DeAndre Carter thin prior (6 touches)	WR	DET	vs MIN		0.7	-7.9	0.5	0.3	3.2	0.0	0.2
139	Elijah Moore	WR	PHI	@ WAS		0.7	-7.9	0.4	0.3	3.1	0.0	0.0
140	Irvin Charles thin prior (0 touches)	WR	SEA	vs CHI		0.7	-8.0	0.4	0.2	3.1	0.0	0.1
141	Elijah Sarratt thin prior (0 touches)	WR	BAL	@ BUF		0.5	-8.1	0.3	0.2	2.2	0.0	0.0
142	Derius Davis thin prior (10 touches)	WR	LAC	@ LA		0.5	-8.1	0.3	0.2	2.1	0.0	0.1
143	Dareke Young thin prior (2 touches)	WR	LV	@ NYJ		0.5	-8.1	0.3	0.2	2.3	0.0	0.0
144	Nikko Remigio thin prior (2 touches)	WR	KC	@ DEN		0.4	-8.2	0.3	0.2	1.9	0.0	0.1
145	Greg Dortch thin prior (40 touches)	WR	BUF	vs BAL		0.4	-8.2	0.2	0.1	1.6	0.0	0.1
146	Devin Duvernay thin prior (9 touches)	WR	ARI	@ DAL		0.4	-8.2	0.2	0.1	1.6	0.0	0.1
147	Kameron Johnson thin prior (4 touches)	WR	TB	vs ATL		0.3	-8.3	0.2	0.1	1.7	0.0	0.0
148	Malachi Corley thin prior (9 touches)	WR	CLE	@ PIT		0.0	-8.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
149	Camden Brown thin prior (0 touches)	WR	DAL	vs ARI		0.0	-8.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
150	Coleman Owen thin prior (0 touches)	WR	GB	vs CAR		0.0	-8.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
151	Nico Collins	WR	HOU	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
152	Marvin Harrison Jr. ⚠	WR	HOU	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
153	Xavier Hutchinson thin prior (40 touches)	WR	HOU	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
154	Tank Dell thin prior (39 touches)	WR	HOU	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
155	Kayshon Boutte thin prior (45 touches)	WR	HOU	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
156	Jayden Higgins thin prior (34 touches)	WR	HOU	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
157	Jaylin Noel thin prior (18 touches)	WR	HOU	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
158	Anthony Gould thin prior (1 touches)	WR	IND	@ JAX		0.0	-8.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
159	CJ Williams thin prior (0 touches)	WR	JAX	vs IND		0.0	-8.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
160	Alex Bachman thin prior (2 touches)	WR	LA	vs LAC		0.0	-8.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
161	Chris Olave	WR	NO	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
162	Devaughn Vele thin prior (36 touches)	WR	NO	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
163	Bryce Lance thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NO	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
164	Barion Brown thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NO	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
165	Jordyn Tyson thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NO	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
166	Mason Tipton thin prior (16 touches)	WR	NO	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
167	Malik Nabers	WR	NYG	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
168	Malachi Fields thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NYG	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
169	Darnell Mooney ⚠	WR	NYG	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
170	Charlie Jones thin prior (3 touches)	WR	NYG	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
171	Calvin Austin III thin prior (51 touches)	WR	NYG	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
172	Braxton Berrios thin prior (12 touches)	WR	NYG	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
173	Gunner Olszewski thin prior (7 touches)	WR	NYG	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
174	Malik McClain thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NYJ	vs LV		0.0	-8.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
175	Britain Covey thin prior (6 touches)	WR	PHI	@ WAS		0.0	-8.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
176	Mike Evans ⚠	WR	SF	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
177	Deebo Samuel Sr.	WR	SF	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
178	Jordan Watkins thin prior (2 touches)	WR	SF	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
179	Brandin Cooks thin prior (50 touches)	WR	SF	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
180	Christian Kirk ⚠	WR	SF	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
181	Jacob Cowing thin prior (2 touches)	WR	SF	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
182	Demarcus Robinson thin prior (44 touches)	WR	SF	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
183	De'Zhaun Stribling thin prior (0 touches)	WR	SF	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
184	Ricky Pearsall thin prior (40 touches)	WR	SF	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
185	Brandon Aiyuk thin prior (35 touches)	WR	SF	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
186	Van Jefferson thin prior (47 touches)	WR	WAS	vs PHI		0.0	-8.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

VORP = this player's points minus the points of the last startable player at his position (hover the VORP cell to see who). Baseline rank = teams × starters, with FLEX split RB/WR/TE 45/45/10.

Known limitations

Thin priors over-projected QBs. Efficiency comes from 2023–25, regressed toward the league average by sample size. Over Weeks 1–4, QB1s whose prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted dropbacks were projected +3.9 PPR a game too high (9 QBs; established QB1s +0.1). Those rows carry a thin prior chip. From Week 7 (model n8-v3) a QB's passing rates also read his own 2026 dropbacks, weighted against the prior's sample plus a fixed anchor, so a few snaps barely move them. On Weeks 5–6 this halved the thin-QB bias. Rushing rates and the game lines still use the prior: the game-level check of the same change failed.
Team pass volume is a 2023–25 prior too; in-season, only player shares blend toward what is observed. Blending team volume in-season was tested twice and lost to the prior both times.