NFL Player Projections

Week 6 — opponent-adjusted (this week's defence, home/away), availability-weighted, byes zeroed. Components (volume × efficiency) with scoring applied as a view. Model n8-v2 · updated 11d ago.

Week: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8• Season Position: All QB RB WR TE

Scoring: PPR Half Standard DK Rank by: VORP Points ⬇ CSV

League & scoring settings — server-side, from your stored component projections; the URL is the saved config

171 players · ranked by VORP under dk_classic scoring, 12-team league (1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1FLEX). thin prior (n) = the efficiency prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted 2023–25 dropbacks (QB) or 55 touches (RB/WR/TE), so the league average carries about half or more of the line's efficiency; ⚠ = low-sample / rookie (archetype-driven). A designation like Q · 60% means the line is weighted by that play probability; BYE rows project 0 and are kept visible.

Replacement level (VORP is measured against these): QB12 C.J. Stroud · 17.0 pts · RB29 Woody Marks · 9.2 pts · WR41 Kendrick Bourne · 8.5 pts · TE13 Mark Andrews · 8.4 pts

#	Player	Pos	Tm	Opp	Status	Pts	VORP	Tgt	Rec	RecYd	RecTD	Car
1	Puka Nacua	WR	LA	vs ARI		19.2	+10.6	9.4	6.7	94.8	0.5	0.6
2	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	SEA	@ DEN		17.2	+8.7	9.4	6.6	79.6	0.4	0.2
3	CeeDee Lamb	WR	DAL	@ GB		16.1	+7.6	9.2	6.1	76.6	0.4	0.4
4	Drake London	WR	ATL	vs CHI		14.3	+5.8	8.0	5.0	67.4	0.4	0.3
5	DeVonta Smith	WR	PHI	vs CAR		14.2	+5.7	7.2	5.0	68.2	0.4	0.2
6	Nico Collins	WR	HOU	@ JAX		13.4	+4.9	7.2	4.6	65.3	0.4	0.3
7	Michael Wilson	WR	ARI	@ LA		13.3	+4.8	7.9	5.0	59.7	0.4	0.1
8	Parker Washington	WR	JAX	vs HOU		13.2	+4.6	7.6	4.8	60.9	0.4	0.2
9	Jaylen Waddle ⚠	WR	DEN	vs SEA		13.1	+4.6	7.3	4.8	63.0	0.3	0.4
10	Josh Downs	WR	IND	vs TEN		12.9	+4.4	7.3	4.8	59.4	0.4	0.1
11	Garrett Wilson	WR	NYJ	@ NE		12.7	+4.2	8.0	5.0	55.8	0.4	0.2
12	Christian Watson thin prior (54 touches)	WR	GB	vs DAL		12.3	+3.8	6.2	3.8	61.6	0.4	0.1
13	Zay Flowers	WR	BAL	@ CLE		12.2	+3.7	7.1	4.8	56.9	0.3	0.4
14	Malik Nabers	WR	NYG	vs NO		12.2	+3.7	7.4	4.5	55.7	0.4	0.1
15	George Pickens	WR	DAL	@ GB		12.2	+3.6	6.6	4.2	60.2	0.3	0.1
16	Devaughn Vele thin prior (36 touches)	WR	NO	@ NYG		12.0	+3.5	6.9	4.5	54.3	0.3	0.1
17	Denzel Boston thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CLE	vs BAL		11.8	+3.3	7.7	4.3	55.0	0.3	0.1
18	Khalil Shakir	WR	BUF	@ LV		11.7	+3.2	6.5	4.7	52.5	0.3	0.1
19	Tetairoa McMillan	WR	CAR	@ PHI		11.6	+3.1	7.2	4.3	52.9	0.3	0.1
20	Carnell Tate thin prior (0 touches)	WR	TEN	@ IND		11.4	+2.8	7.6	4.2	52.2	0.3	0.1
21	Emeka Egbuka	WR	TB	vs PIT		11.3	+2.8	6.9	3.9	54.2	0.3	0.4
22	DK Metcalf	WR	PIT	@ TB		11.2	+2.7	6.4	3.9	53.8	0.3	0.2
23	Xavier Worthy	WR	KC	vs LAC		11.1	+2.6	6.9	4.2	50.7	0.3	0.1
24	Luther Burden III thin prior (30 touches)	WR	CHI	@ ATL		10.6	+2.0	5.8	4.0	50.5	0.3	0.8
25	Keenan Allen ⚠	WR	IND	vs TEN		10.6	+2.0	6.7	4.3	44.6	0.3	0.1
26	Terry McLaurin	WR	WAS	@ SF		10.5	+2.0	6.1	3.9	47.5	0.3	0.2
27	Chris Olave	WR	NO	@ NYG	Q · 72%	10.3	+1.8	6.0	3.9	46.6	0.3	0.1
28	Romeo Doubs ⚠	WR	NE	vs NYJ		10.2	+1.6	5.4	3.4	47.4	0.3	0.1
29	Ladd McConkey	WR	LAC	@ KC		10.2	+1.6	5.9	3.8	45.8	0.3	0.1
30	Matthew Golden thin prior (22 touches)	WR	GB	vs DAL		10.1	+1.6	5.8	3.7	49.1	0.3	0.3
31	KC Concepcion thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CLE	vs BAL		9.8	+1.3	6.4	3.5	45.5	0.3	0.6
32	Brandin Cooks thin prior (50 touches)	WR	SF	vs WAS		9.8	+1.3	5.8	3.6	44.2	0.3	0.2
33	Rome Odunze	WR	CHI	@ ATL		9.7	+1.1	6.0	3.4	45.2	0.3	0.1
34	Courtland Sutton	WR	DEN	vs SEA		9.6	+1.1	5.7	3.5	43.3	0.3	0.1
35	A.J. Brown ⚠	WR	NE	vs NYJ	Q · 72%	9.4	+0.9	4.8	3.1	46.3	0.3	0.2
36	Davante Adams	WR	LA	vs ARI		9.3	+0.8	5.8	3.4	38.6	0.3	0.1
37	Jalen Coker thin prior (35 touches)	WR	CAR	@ PHI		9.2	+0.6	5.3	3.6	41.3	0.2	0.2
38	Quentin Johnston	WR	LAC	@ KC		9.2	+0.6	5.3	3.3	40.2	0.3	0.4
39	Tre Tucker	WR	LV	vs BUF		9.1	+0.6	5.4	3.3	41.9	0.3	0.3
40	Wan'Dale Robinson ⚠	WR	TEN	@ IND		8.8	+0.3	5.7	3.7	38.5	0.2	0.2
41	Kendrick Bourne thin prior (49 touches)	WR	ARI	@ LA		8.5	+0.0	5.2	3.5	39.1	0.2	0.2
42	Dontayvion Wicks ⚠	WR	PHI	vs CAR		8.5	-0.1	4.8	3.0	38.9	0.3	0.1
43	Chris Godwin Jr.	WR	TB	vs PIT		8.4	-0.1	4.8	3.2	38.4	0.2	0.5
44	Jalen Nailor thin prior (40 touches)	WR	LV	vs BUF		8.3	-0.2	4.6	2.8	38.6	0.3	0.1
45	DeMario Douglas	WR	NE	vs NYJ		8.1	-0.5	4.4	2.9	38.4	0.2	0.1
46	Kalif Raymond thin prior (30 touches)	WR	CHI	@ ATL		7.6	-0.9	4.4	3.0	34.2	0.2	0.2
47	Keon Coleman thin prior (47 touches)	WR	BUF	@ LV		7.6	-1.0	4.4	2.7	34.3	0.2	0.1
48	Jakobi Meyers	WR	JAX	vs HOU		7.5	-1.0	4.5	3.0	33.7	0.2	0.2
49	Jahan Dotson thin prior (44 touches)	WR	ATL	vs CHI		7.5	-1.1	4.6	2.7	35.1	0.2	0.1
50	Ryan Flournoy thin prior (32 touches)	WR	DAL	@ GB		7.5	-1.1	4.3	2.8	33.5	0.2	0.1
51	Germie Bernard thin prior (0 touches)	WR	PIT	@ TB		7.4	-1.1	5.0	2.8	33.9	0.2	0.3
52	Brian Thomas Jr.	WR	JAX	vs HOU		7.1	-1.4	4.2	2.5	34.1	0.2	0.1
53	Jerry Jeudy	WR	CLE	vs BAL		7.1	-1.4	4.5	2.6	34.5	0.2	0.1
54	Rashid Shaheed	WR	SEA	@ DEN		7.0	-1.6	4.3	2.7	31.9	0.2	0.4
55	Mike Evans ⚠	WR	SF	vs WAS	Q · 50%	7.0	-1.6	3.9	2.3	31.6	0.2	0.1
56	Stefon Diggs ⚠	WR	WAS	@ SF	Q · 72%	6.9	-1.6	4.0	2.9	29.9	0.2	0.1
57	Laquon Treadwell thin prior (1 touches)	WR	IND	vs TEN		6.8	-1.8	3.9	2.4	31.8	0.2	0.1
58	Marvin Harrison Jr. ⚠	WR	HOU	@ JAX		6.6	-1.9	4.0	2.3	30.6	0.2	0.2
59	Jalen Royals thin prior (2 touches)	WR	KC	vs LAC		6.6	-2.0	3.9	2.5	29.9	0.2	0.1
60	Rashod Bateman thin prior (52 touches)	WR	BAL	@ CLE		6.4	-2.2	4.0	2.4	28.0	0.2	0.1
61	Tim Patrick thin prior (25 touches)	WR	NYJ	@ NE		6.3	-2.2	3.8	2.4	27.0	0.2	0.3
62	Antonio Williams thin prior (0 touches)	WR	WAS	@ SF		6.3	-2.3	4.2	2.3	28.5	0.2	0.2
63	Malachi Fields thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NYG	vs NO		6.2	-2.3	4.1	2.3	28.8	0.2	0.1
64	Ted Hurst III thin prior (0 touches)	WR	TB	vs PIT		6.0	-2.5	3.9	2.2	27.9	0.2	0.2
65	Xavier Hutchinson thin prior (40 touches)	WR	HOU	@ JAX		5.9	-2.6	3.7	2.2	26.8	0.2	0.4
66	Kayshon Boutte thin prior (45 touches)	WR	HOU	@ JAX		5.9	-2.6	3.2	2.1	27.5	0.2	0.2
67	Bryce Lance thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NO	@ NYG		5.7	-2.9	3.8	2.1	26.0	0.2	0.1
68	Jacob Cowing thin prior (2 touches)	WR	SF	vs WAS		5.5	-3.1	2.9	1.8	26.5	0.2	0.2
69	Makai Lemon thin prior (0 touches)	WR	PHI	vs CAR		5.4	-3.1	3.4	1.9	25.8	0.2	0.3
70	Omar Cooper Jr. thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NYJ	@ NE	Q · 78%	5.2	-3.3	3.5	1.9	23.8	0.1	0.2
71	Cody White thin prior (3 touches)	WR	LV	vs BUF		5.0	-3.5	2.8	1.8	23.9	0.1	0.1
72	Darnell Mooney ⚠	WR	NYG	vs NO		5.0	-3.5	3.2	1.8	24.5	0.1	0.2
73	Efton Chism III thin prior (2 touches)	WR	NE	vs NYJ		5.0	-3.6	2.6	1.7	23.9	0.1	0.3
74	Cooper Kupp	WR	SEA	@ DEN		4.7	-3.8	3.0	2.0	20.0	0.1	0.1
75	Cyrus Allen thin prior (0 touches)	WR	KC	vs LAC		4.6	-3.9	3.1	1.7	21.3	0.1	0.2
76	Jordan Watkins thin prior (2 touches)	WR	SF	vs WAS		4.3	-4.2	2.3	1.5	20.9	0.1	0.2
77	Isaiah Williams thin prior (19 touches)	WR	NYJ	@ NE		4.3	-4.3	2.6	1.7	18.7	0.1	0.4
78	Troy Franklin	WR	DEN	vs SEA		4.2	-4.3	2.6	1.6	18.1	0.1	0.3
79	Savion Williams thin prior (5 touches)	WR	GB	vs DAL	Q · 72%	4.2	-4.4	2.3	1.5	19.2	0.1	0.2
80	Brycen Tremayne thin prior (9 touches)	WR	CAR	@ PHI		4.1	-4.4	2.5	1.7	18.4	0.1	0.1
81	Jalen Brooks thin prior (13 touches)	WR	ARI	@ LA		4.0	-4.5	2.6	1.5	18.4	0.1	0.2
82	Elic Ayomanor thin prior (44 touches)	WR	TEN	@ IND		4.0	-4.5	2.6	1.5	18.0	0.1	0.1
83	Olamide Zaccheaus ⚠	WR	ATL	vs CHI		3.9	-4.7	2.3	1.5	17.1	0.1	0.1
84	Brenen Thompson thin prior (0 touches)	WR	LAC	@ KC	Q · 72%	3.8	-4.7	2.6	1.5	17.2	0.1	0.2
85	Josh Palmer thin prior (50 touches)	WR	BUF	@ LV	Q · 72%	3.8	-4.8	2.2	1.4	18.4	0.1	0.1
86	Jordan Whittington thin prior (21 touches)	WR	LA	vs ARI		3.7	-4.8	2.1	1.4	17.9	0.1	0.1
87	Konata Mumpfield thin prior (12 touches)	WR	LA	vs ARI		3.6	-4.9	2.1	1.3	16.6	0.1	0.1
88	Isaiah Bond thin prior (22 touches)	WR	CLE	vs BAL		3.6	-4.9	2.3	1.3	17.4	0.1	0.2
89	Treylon Burks thin prior (19 touches)	WR	WAS	@ SF		3.5	-5.0	2.2	1.3	16.0	0.1	0.2
90	Josh Cameron thin prior (0 touches)	WR	JAX	vs HOU		3.4	-5.1	2.3	1.3	15.7	0.1	0.1
91	Bo Melton ⚠	WR	GB	vs DAL		3.4	-5.1	1.9	1.2	16.1	0.1	0.2
92	Tez Johnson thin prior (22 touches)	WR	TB	vs PIT		3.4	-5.2	1.9	1.2	15.0	0.1	0.4
93	Dyami Brown thin prior (35 touches)	WR	WAS	@ SF		3.4	-5.2	2.1	1.3	15.2	0.1	0.2
94	Jaylin Noel thin prior (18 touches)	WR	HOU	@ JAX		3.3	-5.2	1.9	1.3	15.0	0.1	0.7
95	Darius Cooper thin prior (6 touches)	WR	PHI	vs CAR		3.3	-5.2	1.8	1.2	15.7	0.1	0.1
96	Marvin Mims Jr. thin prior (48 touches)	WR	DEN	vs SEA		3.3	-5.2	1.9	1.3	14.7	0.1	0.4
97	Devontez Walker thin prior (5 touches)	WR	BAL	@ CLE		3.2	-5.4	1.8	1.2	14.0	0.1	0.2
98	John Metchie III thin prior (41 touches)	WR	CAR	@ PHI		3.1	-5.4	2.0	1.3	13.1	0.1	0.2
99	Ja'Kobi Lane thin prior (0 touches)	WR	BAL	@ CLE	Q · 78%	3.1	-5.4	2.2	1.2	13.7	0.1	0.2
100	Calvin Ridley	WR	TEN	@ IND		3.1	-5.5	2.0	1.1	14.6	0.1	0.1
101	Reggie Virgil thin prior (0 touches)	WR	ARI	@ LA		2.9	-5.6	2.0	1.1	13.1	0.1	0.2
102	Justin Watson thin prior (22 touches)	WR	KC	vs LAC		2.9	-5.7	1.7	1.0	13.4	0.1	0.2
103	Kyle Williams thin prior (10 touches)	WR	NE	vs NYJ		2.9	-5.7	1.5	0.9	13.7	0.1	0.1
104	KeAndre Lambert-Smith thin prior (6 touches)	WR	LAC	@ KC	Q · 78%	2.8	-5.8	1.7	1.1	12.3	0.1	0.2
105	Brandon Aiyuk thin prior (35 touches)	WR	SF	vs WAS		2.8	-5.8	1.4	0.9	14.3	0.1	0.3
106	KaVontae Turpin thin prior (38 touches)	WR	DAL	@ GB		2.7	-5.8	1.6	1.0	12.7	0.1	0.5
107	Zachariah Branch thin prior (0 touches)	WR	ATL	vs CHI		2.6	-5.9	1.7	0.9	12.4	0.1	0.1
108	Tory Horton thin prior (11 touches)	WR	SEA	@ DEN		2.6	-5.9	1.5	1.0	11.1	0.1	0.2
109	Skyler Bell thin prior (0 touches)	WR	BUF	@ LV		2.6	-5.9	1.7	1.0	11.9	0.1	0.2
110	Deion Burks thin prior (0 touches)	WR	IND	vs TEN		2.5	-6.0	1.6	0.9	12.1	0.1	0.4
111	Theo Wease Jr. thin prior (5 touches)	WR	LAC	@ KC		2.4	-6.1	1.4	0.9	11.3	0.1	0.3
112	Brandon Smith thin prior (0 touches)	WR	PIT	@ TB		2.3	-6.3	1.5	0.8	10.4	0.1	0.2
113	Kaden Wetjen thin prior (0 touches)	WR	PIT	@ TB		2.2	-6.3	1.5	0.8	10.2	0.1	0.1
114	Chimere Dike thin prior (37 touches)	WR	TEN	@ IND		2.0	-6.5	1.2	0.8	8.7	0.1	0.1
115	Lil'Jordan Humphrey thin prior (30 touches)	WR	DEN	vs SEA		1.9	-6.7	1.1	0.7	8.4	0.1	0.2
116	Jonathan Mingo thin prior (32 touches)	WR	DAL	@ GB		1.9	-6.7	1.3	0.7	8.4	0.1	0.2
117	Dareke Young thin prior (2 touches)	WR	LV	vs BUF		1.9	-6.7	1.1	0.7	8.7	0.1	0.1
118	Greg Dortch thin prior (40 touches)	WR	BUF	@ LV		1.8	-6.7	1.0	0.7	7.6	0.1	0.1
119	Charlie Jones thin prior (3 touches)	WR	NYG	vs NO		1.7	-6.8	1.0	0.6	7.9	0.0	0.2
120	J. Michael Sturdivant thin prior (0 touches)	WR	GB	vs DAL		1.6	-7.0	1.0	0.6	7.5	0.0	0.2
121	Zavion Thomas thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CHI	@ ATL		1.6	-7.0	1.0	0.6	7.1	0.0	0.3
122	Malik Benson thin prior (0 touches)	WR	LV	vs BUF		1.6	-7.0	1.0	0.6	7.2	0.0	0.2
123	Barion Brown thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NO	@ NYG		1.5	-7.0	1.0	0.6	7.0	0.0	0.5
124	Chris Blair thin prior (1 touches)	WR	ATL	vs CHI		1.4	-7.2	0.8	0.5	6.4	0.0	0.1
125	LaJohntay Wester thin prior (0 touches)	WR	BAL	@ CLE		1.4	-7.2	0.8	0.5	6.0	0.0	0.2
126	Cedric Tillman thin prior (43 touches)	WR	NO	@ NYG		1.3	-7.2	0.8	0.5	5.9	0.0	0.3
127	Jahdae Walker thin prior (5 touches)	WR	CHI	@ ATL		1.3	-7.3	0.7	0.5	5.7	0.0	0.2
128	David Moore thin prior (19 touches)	WR	CAR	@ PHI		1.1	-7.4	0.7	0.4	4.8	0.0	0.2
129	Derius Davis thin prior (10 touches)	WR	LAC	@ KC		1.1	-7.5	0.7	0.4	4.6	0.0	0.0
130	Travis Hunter ⚠	WR	JAX	vs HOU		1.1	-7.5	0.6	0.4	4.8	0.0	0.2
131	Brandon Johnson thin prior (6 touches)	WR	PIT	@ TB		1.1	-7.5	0.6	0.4	4.8	0.0	0.2
132	CJ Daniels thin prior (0 touches)	WR	LA	vs ARI		1.0	-7.5	0.6	0.4	4.9	0.0	0.3
133	Tylan Wallace thin prior (8 touches)	WR	CLE	vs BAL		1.0	-7.6	0.5	0.3	4.5	0.0	0.2
134	Kameron Johnson thin prior (4 touches)	WR	TB	vs PIT		0.9	-7.6	0.5	0.3	4.3	0.0	0.1
135	Marquise Brown ⚠	WR	PHI	vs CAR		0.7	-7.8	0.4	0.2	3.3	0.0	0.6
136	Malik McClain thin prior (0 touches)	WR	NYJ	@ NE		0.7	-7.8	0.5	0.3	3.1	0.0	0.3
137	Anthony Gould thin prior (1 touches)	WR	IND	vs TEN		0.6	-7.9	0.3	0.2	3.0	0.0	0.1
138	Nikko Remigio thin prior (2 touches)	WR	KC	vs LAC		0.6	-7.9	0.3	0.2	2.8	0.0	0.1
139	Simi Fehoko thin prior (5 touches)	WR	ARI	@ LA		0.5	-8.0	0.3	0.2	2.3	0.0	0.2
140	Devin Duvernay thin prior (9 touches)	WR	ARI	@ LA		0.0	-8.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
141	Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
142	Tee Higgins	WR	CIN	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
143	Colbie Young thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CIN	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
144	Dohnte Meyers thin prior (0 touches)	WR	CIN	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
145	Mitchell Tinsley thin prior (12 touches)	WR	CIN	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
146	Andrei Iosivas thin prior (52 touches)	WR	CIN	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
147	Malachi Corley thin prior (9 touches)	WR	CLE	vs BAL		0.0	-8.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
148	Camden Brown thin prior (0 touches)	WR	DAL	@ GB		0.0	-8.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
149	Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
150	Jameson Williams	WR	DET	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
151	Isaac TeSlaa thin prior (14 touches)	WR	DET	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
152	Tay Martin thin prior (2 touches)	WR	DET	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
153	Tom Kennedy thin prior (2 touches)	WR	DET	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
154	Kendrick Law thin prior (0 touches)	WR	DET	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
155	Coleman Owen thin prior (0 touches)	WR	GB	vs DAL		0.0	-8.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
156	Andrew Armstrong thin prior (0 touches)	WR	KC	vs LAC		0.0	-8.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
157	Alex Bachman thin prior (2 touches)	WR	LA	vs ARI		0.0	-8.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
158	Malik Washington thin prior (43 touches)	WR	MIA	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
159	Caleb Douglas thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIA	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
160	Chris Bell thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIA	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
161	Kevin Coleman Jr. thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIA	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
162	Jalen Tolbert thin prior (48 touches)	WR	MIA	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
163	Jared Wayne thin prior (1 touches)	WR	MIA	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
164	Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
165	Jordan Addison	WR	MIN	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
166	Jauan Jennings ⚠	WR	MIN	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
167	Tai Felton thin prior (2 touches)	WR	MIN	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
168	Myles Price thin prior (0 touches)	WR	MIN	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
169	Elijah Moore	WR	PHI	vs CAR		0.0	-8.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
170	Britain Covey thin prior (6 touches)	WR	PHI	vs CAR		0.0	-8.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
171	Luke McCaffrey thin prior (15 touches)	WR	WAS	@ SF		0.0	-8.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

VORP = this player's points minus the points of the last startable player at his position (hover the VORP cell to see who). Baseline rank = teams × starters, with FLEX split RB/WR/TE 45/45/10.

Known limitations

Thin priors over-projected QBs. Efficiency comes from 2023–25, regressed toward the league average by sample size. Over Weeks 1–4, QB1s whose prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted dropbacks were projected +3.9 PPR a game too high (9 QBs; established QB1s +0.1). Those rows carry a thin prior chip. From Week 7 (model n8-v3) a QB's passing rates also read his own 2026 dropbacks, weighted against the prior's sample plus a fixed anchor, so a few snaps barely move them. On Weeks 5–6 this halved the thin-QB bias. Rushing rates and the game lines still use the prior: the game-level check of the same change failed.
Team pass volume is a 2023–25 prior too; in-season, only player shares blend toward what is observed. Blending team volume in-season was tested twice and lost to the prior both times.