NFL Player Projections

Week 8 — opponent-adjusted (this week's defence, home/away), availability-weighted, byes zeroed. Components (volume × efficiency) with scoring applied as a view. Model n8-v3 · updated 4h ago.

Week: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8• Season Position: All QB RB WR TE

Scoring: PPR Half Standard DK Rank by: VORP Points ⬇ CSV

League & scoring settings — server-side, from your stored component projections; the URL is the saved config

119 players · ranked by VORP under standard scoring, 12-team league (1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1FLEX). thin prior (n) = the efficiency prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted 2023–25 dropbacks (QB) or 55 touches (RB/WR/TE), so the league average carries about half or more of the line's efficiency; ⚠ = low-sample / rookie (archetype-driven). A designation like Q · 60% means the line is weighted by that play probability; BYE rows project 0 and are kept visible.

Replacement level (VORP is measured against these): QB12 Sam Darnold · 16.8 pts · RB29 Emanuel Wilson · 7.0 pts · WR41 Kendrick Bourne · 5.3 pts · TE13 T.J. Hockenson · 4.7 pts

#	Player	Pos	Tm	Opp	Status	Pts	VORP	Tgt	Rec	RecYd	RecTD
1	Trey McBride	TE	ARI	@ DAL		8.4	+3.8	8.2	6.1	61.2	0.4
2	Brock Bowers	TE	LV	@ NYJ		6.7	+2.1	6.2	4.6	47.6	0.3
3	Brenton Strange thin prior (48 touches)	TE	JAX	vs IND		5.9	+1.2	5.2	3.8	42.6	0.3
4	Tucker Kraft thin prior (51 touches)	TE	GB	vs CAR		5.7	+1.0	4.1	3.0	38.8	0.3
5	Sam LaPorta	TE	DET	vs MIN		5.6	+0.9	5.0	3.7	38.9	0.3
6	Dalton Kincaid	TE	BUF	vs BAL		5.0	+0.4	4.5	3.2	36.4	0.2
7	Dallas Goedert	TE	PHI	@ WAS		5.0	+0.3	4.3	3.1	32.7	0.3
8	Colston Loveland thin prior (41 touches)	TE	CHI	@ SEA		5.0	+0.3	5.2	3.7	34.9	0.2
9	Cade Otton	TE	TB	vs ATL		4.9	+0.2	4.7	3.4	35.7	0.2
10	Travis Kelce	TE	KC	@ DEN		4.9	+0.2	6.1	4.4	35.7	0.2
11	Hunter Henry	TE	NE	@ MIA		4.8	+0.2	4.7	3.3	33.8	0.2
12	Tyler Warren	TE	IND	@ JAX		4.8	+0.1	5.0	3.5	34.5	0.2
13	T.J. Hockenson	TE	MIN	@ DET		4.7	+0.0	5.0	3.7	34.2	0.2
14	Greg Dulcich thin prior (21 touches)	TE	MIA	vs NE		4.6	-0.1	4.2	3.0	33.7	0.2
15	Harold Fannin Jr. thin prior (54 touches)	TE	CLE	@ PIT		4.6	-0.1	5.1	3.6	31.8	0.2
16	Kyle Pitts	TE	ATL	@ TB		4.6	-0.1	4.5	3.1	33.3	0.2
17	Mark Andrews	TE	BAL	@ BUF		4.5	-0.2	4.2	3.1	29.0	0.3
18	Tyler Higbee thin prior (36 touches)	TE	LA	vs LAC		4.3	-0.4	4.3	3.1	29.5	0.2
19	Jake Ferguson	TE	DAL	vs ARI		4.2	-0.4	4.1	3.0	29.0	0.2
20	Charlie Kolar thin prior (13 touches)	TE	LAC	@ LA		4.2	-0.5	4.0	2.9	29.2	0.2
21	Chig Okonkwo ⚠	TE	WAS	vs PHI		4.2	-0.5	4.5	3.2	31.2	0.2
22	AJ Barner thin prior (45 touches)	TE	SEA	vs CHI		4.2	-0.5	3.7	2.8	27.8	0.2
23	Mike Gesicki thin prior (55 touches)	TE	CIN	vs TEN		4.1	-0.6	3.8	2.7	29.8	0.2
24	Pat Freiermuth	TE	PIT	vs CLE		3.7	-0.9	3.4	2.6	25.8	0.2
25	Tommy Tremble thin prior (34 touches)	TE	CAR	@ GB		3.4	-1.3	3.4	2.4	23.3	0.2
26	Mason Taylor thin prior (32 touches)	TE	NYJ	vs LV		3.3	-1.4	3.6	2.6	23.7	0.2
27	Michael Mayer thin prior (43 touches)	TE	LV	@ NYJ		3.2	-1.5	3.3	2.3	23.3	0.1
28	Darnell Washington thin prior (31 touches)	TE	PIT	vs CLE		3.2	-1.5	3.2	2.3	23.3	0.1
29	Gunnar Helm thin prior (28 touches)	TE	TEN	@ CIN		3.0	-1.6	3.1	2.3	21.5	0.1
30	Evan Engram	TE	DEN	vs KC		3.0	-1.7	3.6	2.6	22.2	0.1
31	Colby Parkinson thin prior (50 touches)	TE	LA	vs LAC		2.7	-1.9	2.5	1.8	17.9	0.2
32	Oronde Gadsden II thin prior (34 touches)	TE	LAC	@ LA		2.6	-2.0	2.8	2.0	19.4	0.1
33	Darren Waller thin prior (32 touches)	TE	CAR	@ GB		2.4	-2.3	2.6	1.8	16.2	0.1
34	Kenyon Sadiq thin prior (0 touches)	TE	NYJ	vs LV		2.4	-2.3	2.5	1.6	16.8	0.1
35	Will Mallory thin prior (8 touches)	TE	IND	@ JAX		2.2	-2.4	2.3	1.6	16.1	0.1
36	Eli Raridon thin prior (0 touches)	TE	NE	@ MIA		2.1	-2.6	2.3	1.4	14.7	0.1
37	Noah Gray thin prior (41 touches)	TE	KC	@ DEN		2.1	-2.6	2.2	1.6	14.5	0.1
38	Drew Sample thin prior (22 touches)	TE	CIN	vs TEN		2.0	-2.6	1.9	1.4	14.1	0.1
39	Dawson Knox thin prior (42 touches)	TE	BUF	vs BAL		1.9	-2.8	1.7	1.2	13.1	0.1
40	Brevyn Spann-Ford thin prior (11 touches)	TE	DAL	vs ARI		1.8	-2.8	1.7	1.2	13.0	0.1
41	Elijah Higgins thin prior (30 touches)	TE	ARI	@ DAL		1.8	-2.9	1.7	1.3	13.1	0.1
42	Daniel Bellinger thin prior (24 touches)	TE	TEN	@ CIN		1.7	-3.0	1.5	1.1	12.5	0.1
43	Adam Trautman thin prior (25 touches)	TE	DEN	vs KC		1.7	-3.0	1.6	1.1	11.8	0.1
44	Gavin Bartholomew thin prior (0 touches)	TE	MIN	@ DET		1.6	-3.0	1.9	1.2	11.6	0.1
45	Nate Boerkircher thin prior (0 touches)	TE	JAX	vs IND		1.6	-3.1	1.7	1.0	11.3	0.1
46	Payne Durham thin prior (8 touches)	TE	TB	vs ATL		1.5	-3.1	1.4	1.0	10.6	0.1
47	Austin Hooper thin prior (37 touches)	TE	ATL	@ TB		1.4	-3.2	1.5	1.1	10.3	0.1
48	Davis Allen thin prior (23 touches)	TE	LA	vs LAC		1.4	-3.3	1.4	1.0	9.6	0.1
49	Mark Redman thin prior (0 touches)	TE	GB	vs CAR		1.3	-3.4	1.3	0.8	9.1	0.1
50	Will Kacmarek thin prior (0 touches)	TE	MIA	vs NE		1.3	-3.4	1.3	0.9	9.1	0.1
51	Charlie Woerner thin prior (9 touches)	TE	ATL	@ TB		1.3	-3.4	1.3	1.0	9.0	0.1
52	Blake Whiteheart thin prior (6 touches)	TE	CLE	@ PIT		1.2	-3.5	1.3	0.9	8.4	0.1
53	Brock Wright thin prior (19 touches)	TE	DET	vs MIN		1.1	-3.5	1.2	0.9	7.7	0.1
54	Jeremy Ruckert thin prior (27 touches)	TE	NYJ	vs LV		1.1	-3.5	1.2	0.8	8.2	0.1
55	Ben Sinnott thin prior (8 touches)	TE	WAS	vs PHI		1.1	-3.6	1.1	0.8	7.5	0.1
56	Josh Cuevas thin prior (0 touches)	TE	BAL	@ BUF		1.1	-3.6	1.2	0.8	7.5	0.1
57	Sam Roush thin prior (0 touches)	TE	CHI	@ SEA		1.1	-3.6	1.3	0.8	7.5	0.1
58	Nate Adkins thin prior (11 touches)	TE	DEN	vs KC		1.0	-3.6	1.0	0.7	7.0	0.1
59	Johnny Mundt thin prior (22 touches)	TE	PHI	@ WAS		1.0	-3.6	1.1	0.7	7.2	0.1
60	John Bates thin prior (18 touches)	TE	WAS	vs PHI		1.0	-3.6	1.1	0.8	7.3	0.1
61	Mitchell Evans thin prior (12 touches)	TE	CAR	@ GB		1.0	-3.6	1.1	0.8	7.1	0.1
62	Matthew Hibner thin prior (0 touches)	TE	BAL	@ BUF		1.0	-3.7	1.2	0.7	7.1	0.0
63	Luke Schoonmaker thin prior (25 touches)	TE	DAL	vs ARI		0.9	-3.7	0.9	0.6	6.7	0.0
64	Eric Saubert thin prior (8 touches)	TE	SEA	vs CHI		0.9	-3.8	0.9	0.7	6.2	0.0
65	Mo Alie-Cox thin prior (21 touches)	TE	IND	@ JAX		0.9	-3.8	0.9	0.6	6.0	0.0
66	Teagan Quitoriano thin prior (1 touches)	TE	ARI	@ DAL		0.8	-3.9	0.8	0.5	5.5	0.0
67	Cam Grandy thin prior (2 touches)	TE	CIN	vs TEN		0.8	-3.9	0.7	0.5	5.4	0.0
68	Ian Thomas thin prior (10 touches)	TE	LV	@ NYJ		0.8	-3.9	0.7	0.6	5.5	0.0
69	Tyler Conklin thin prior (44 touches)	TE	DET	vs MIN		0.6	-4.0	0.7	0.5	4.5	0.0
70	Tanner Koziol thin prior (0 touches)	TE	JAX	vs IND		0.6	-4.0	0.6	0.4	4.4	0.0
71	Robert Tonyan thin prior (4 touches)	TE	PIT	vs CLE		0.6	-4.0	0.7	0.5	4.4	0.0
72	Josh Whyle thin prior (17 touches)	TE	GB	vs CAR		0.6	-4.1	0.6	0.4	4.3	0.0
73	Jake Briningstool thin prior (0 touches)	TE	KC	@ DEN		0.6	-4.1	0.7	0.5	4.3	0.0
74	Nick Kallerup thin prior (0 touches)	TE	SEA	vs CHI		0.6	-4.1	0.6	0.4	4.2	0.0
75	Ben Yurosek thin prior (2 touches)	TE	MIN	@ DET		0.6	-4.1	0.6	0.4	4.1	0.0
76	Seydou Traore thin prior (0 touches)	TE	MIA	vs NE		0.6	-4.1	0.6	0.4	3.9	0.0
77	David Martin-Robinson thin prior (4 touches)	TE	TEN	@ CIN		0.6	-4.1	0.5	0.4	3.8	0.0
78	Jelani Woods thin prior (2 touches)	TE	NYJ	vs LV		0.5	-4.1	0.5	0.4	3.8	0.0
79	Jackson Hawes thin prior (10 touches)	TE	BUF	vs BAL		0.5	-4.1	0.5	0.3	3.6	0.0
80	Eli Stowers thin prior (0 touches)	TE	PHI	@ WAS		0.5	-4.1	0.6	0.4	3.8	0.0
81	Andrew Ogletree thin prior (11 touches)	TE	IND	@ JAX		0.5	-4.2	0.5	0.3	3.5	0.0
82	Hayden Rucci thin prior (0 touches)	TE	LAC	@ LA		0.5	-4.2	0.5	0.4	3.3	0.0
83	Ko Kieft thin prior (1 touches)	TE	TB	vs ATL		0.4	-4.3	0.4	0.3	2.9	0.0
84	Colson Yankoff thin prior (2 touches)	TE	WAS	vs PHI		0.4	-4.3	0.4	0.3	2.6	0.0
85	Quintin Morris thin prior (8 touches)	TE	JAX	vs IND		0.3	-4.3	0.3	0.2	2.2	0.0
86	Cameron Latu thin prior (0 touches)	TE	NE	@ MIA		0.3	-4.4	0.3	0.2	2.0	0.0
87	Nick Muse thin prior (0 touches)	TE	ATL	@ TB		0.2	-4.4	0.2	0.2	1.7	0.0
88	Jackson Meeks thin prior (0 touches)	TE	DET	vs MIN		0.2	-4.5	0.2	0.1	1.3	0.0
89	Kylen Granson thin prior (24 touches)	TE	TEN	@ CIN		0.2	-4.5	0.2	0.1	1.2	0.0
90	Pharaoh Brown thin prior (8 touches)	TE	IND	@ JAX		0.1	-4.5	0.1	0.1	1.0	0.0
91	Bauer Sharp thin prior (0 touches)	TE	TB	vs ATL		0.1	-4.6	0.1	0.1	0.8	0.0
92	Nick Vannett thin prior (6 touches)	TE	BAL	@ BUF		0.0	-4.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
93	Keleki Latu thin prior (2 touches)	TE	BUF	vs BAL		0.0	-4.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
94	Feleipe Franks thin prior (1 touches)	TE	CAR	@ GB		0.0	-4.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
95	Jack Endries thin prior (0 touches)	TE	CIN	vs TEN		0.0	-4.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
96	Dallen Bentley thin prior (0 touches)	TE	DEN	vs KC		0.0	-4.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
97	Dalton Schultz	TE	HOU	BYE	BYE	0.0	-4.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
98	Foster Moreau thin prior (23 touches)	TE	HOU	BYE	BYE	0.0	-4.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
99	Cade Stover thin prior (15 touches)	TE	HOU	BYE	BYE	0.0	-4.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
100	Brevin Jordan thin prior (5 touches)	TE	HOU	BYE	BYE	0.0	-4.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
101	Marlin Klein thin prior (0 touches)	TE	HOU	BYE	BYE	0.0	-4.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
102	Jared Wiley thin prior (1 touches)	TE	KC	@ DEN		0.0	-4.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
103	Max Klare thin prior (0 touches)	TE	LA	vs LAC		0.0	-4.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
104	Justin Joly thin prior (0 touches)	TE	MIA	vs NE		0.0	-4.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
105	Tanner Arkin thin prior (0 touches)	TE	NE	@ MIA		0.0	-4.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
106	Juwan Johnson	TE	NO	BYE	BYE	0.0	-4.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
107	Noah Fant thin prior (48 touches)	TE	NO	BYE	BYE	0.0	-4.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
108	Oscar Delp thin prior (0 touches)	TE	NO	BYE	BYE	0.0	-4.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
109	Treyton Welch thin prior (0 touches)	TE	NO	BYE	BYE	0.0	-4.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
110	Moliki Matavao thin prior (1 touches)	TE	NO	BYE	BYE	0.0	-4.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
111	Isaiah Likely thin prior (43 touches)	TE	NYG	BYE	BYE	0.0	-4.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
112	Theo Johnson thin prior (50 touches)	TE	NYG	BYE	BYE	0.0	-4.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
113	Thomas Fidone II thin prior (0 touches)	TE	NYG	BYE	BYE	0.0	-4.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
114	Andrew Beck ⚠	TE	NYJ	vs LV		0.0	-4.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
115	Grant Calcaterra thin prior (16 touches)	TE	PHI	@ WAS		0.0	-4.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
116	George Kittle	TE	SF	BYE	BYE	0.0	-4.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
117	Luke Farrell thin prior (15 touches)	TE	SF	BYE	BYE	0.0	-4.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
118	Brayden Willis thin prior (1 touches)	TE	SF	BYE	BYE	0.0	-4.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
119	Jake Tonges thin prior (23 touches)	TE	SF	BYE	BYE	0.0	-4.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

VORP = this player's points minus the points of the last startable player at his position (hover the VORP cell to see who). Baseline rank = teams × starters, with FLEX split RB/WR/TE 45/45/10.

Known limitations

Thin priors over-projected QBs. Efficiency comes from 2023–25, regressed toward the league average by sample size. Over Weeks 1–4, QB1s whose prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted dropbacks were projected +3.9 PPR a game too high (9 QBs; established QB1s +0.1). Those rows carry a thin prior chip. From Week 7 (model n8-v3) a QB's passing rates also read his own 2026 dropbacks, weighted against the prior's sample plus a fixed anchor, so a few snaps barely move them. On Weeks 5–6 this halved the thin-QB bias. Rushing rates and the game lines still use the prior: the game-level check of the same change failed.
Team pass volume is a 2023–25 prior too; in-season, only player shares blend toward what is observed. Blending team volume in-season was tested twice and lost to the prior both times.