NFL Player Projections

Week 6 — opponent-adjusted (this week's defence, home/away), availability-weighted, byes zeroed. Components (volume × efficiency) with scoring applied as a view. Model n8-v2 · updated 11d ago.

Week: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8• Season Position: All QB RB WR TE

Scoring: PPR Half Standard DK Rank by: VORP Points ⬇ CSV

League & scoring settings — server-side, from your stored component projections; the URL is the saved config

116 players · ranked by VORP under standard scoring, 12-team league (1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1FLEX). thin prior (n) = the efficiency prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted 2023–25 dropbacks (QB) or 55 touches (RB/WR/TE), so the league average carries about half or more of the line's efficiency; ⚠ = low-sample / rookie (archetype-driven). A designation like Q · 60% means the line is weighted by that play probability; BYE rows project 0 and are kept visible.

Replacement level (VORP is measured against these): QB12 C.J. Stroud · 16.9 pts · RB29 RJ Harvey · 6.6 pts · WR41 Dontayvion Wicks · 5.5 pts · TE13 Mark Andrews · 4.9 pts

#	Player	Pos	Tm	Opp	Status	Pts	VORP	Tgt	Rec	RecYd	RecTD
1	Trey McBride	TE	ARI	@ LA		8.2	+3.3	8.5	6.3	59.1	0.4
2	Isaiah Likely thin prior (43 touches)	TE	NYG	vs NO		7.8	+2.9	6.8	4.9	54.4	0.4
3	George Kittle	TE	SF	vs WAS		7.5	+2.6	5.5	4.2	52.8	0.4
4	Brock Bowers	TE	LV	vs BUF		6.9	+2.0	6.4	4.7	48.7	0.3
5	Tucker Kraft thin prior (51 touches)	TE	GB	vs DAL		5.8	+0.9	4.2	3.1	39.9	0.3
6	Travis Kelce	TE	KC	vs LAC		5.7	+0.9	6.6	4.8	42.2	0.3
7	Brenton Strange thin prior (48 touches)	TE	JAX	vs HOU		5.5	+0.7	5.3	3.9	40.1	0.3
8	Juwan Johnson	TE	NO	@ NYG		5.4	+0.5	5.1	3.7	39.7	0.2
9	Cade Otton	TE	TB	vs PIT		5.3	+0.5	5.4	3.8	39.2	0.2
10	Harold Fannin Jr. thin prior (54 touches)	TE	CLE	vs BAL		5.1	+0.3	5.4	3.7	35.6	0.3
11	Dalton Kincaid	TE	BUF	@ LV		5.1	+0.2	4.7	3.4	36.9	0.2
12	Dallas Goedert	TE	PHI	vs CAR		4.9	+0.1	4.1	3.0	32.3	0.3
13	Mark Andrews	TE	BAL	@ CLE		4.9	+0.0	4.9	3.5	31.5	0.3
14	Dalton Schultz	TE	HOU	@ JAX		4.8	-0.1	5.1	3.7	35.4	0.2
15	Kyle Pitts	TE	ATL	vs CHI		4.6	-0.3	4.2	2.9	33.4	0.2
16	Hunter Henry	TE	NE	vs NYJ		4.4	-0.4	4.0	2.8	31.0	0.2
17	Charlie Kolar thin prior (13 touches)	TE	LAC	@ KC		4.4	-0.5	4.1	3.0	30.4	0.2
18	Jake Ferguson	TE	DAL	@ GB		4.3	-0.5	4.6	3.4	29.7	0.2
19	Colston Loveland thin prior (41 touches)	TE	CHI	@ ATL		4.3	-0.6	4.2	3.0	30.2	0.2
20	AJ Barner thin prior (45 touches)	TE	SEA	@ DEN		4.0	-0.9	4.0	3.0	26.6	0.2
21	Chig Okonkwo ⚠	TE	WAS	@ SF		3.7	-1.2	4.0	2.9	27.5	0.2
22	Mo Alie-Cox thin prior (21 touches)	TE	IND	vs TEN		3.6	-1.3	3.4	2.4	24.8	0.2
23	Tommy Tremble thin prior (34 touches)	TE	CAR	@ PHI		3.3	-1.6	3.5	2.5	22.8	0.2
24	Darnell Washington thin prior (31 touches)	TE	PIT	@ TB		3.3	-1.6	3.3	2.4	24.4	0.1
25	Tyler Higbee thin prior (36 touches)	TE	LA	vs ARI		3.2	-1.7	3.0	2.1	21.9	0.2
26	Colby Parkinson thin prior (50 touches)	TE	LA	vs ARI		3.2	-1.7	2.7	1.9	20.7	0.2
27	Evan Engram	TE	DEN	vs SEA		3.0	-1.9	3.7	2.7	22.5	0.1
28	Michael Mayer thin prior (43 touches)	TE	LV	vs BUF		3.0	-1.9	3.2	2.2	22.0	0.1
29	Gunnar Helm thin prior (28 touches)	TE	TEN	@ IND		2.9	-1.9	3.1	2.3	20.8	0.1
30	Kenyon Sadiq thin prior (0 touches)	TE	NYJ	@ NE	Q · 74%	2.9	-2.0	3.3	2.1	20.5	0.1
31	Oronde Gadsden II thin prior (34 touches)	TE	LAC	@ KC		2.7	-2.1	2.8	2.0	20.1	0.1
32	Pat Freiermuth	TE	PIT	@ TB	Q · 66%	2.6	-2.2	2.4	1.8	18.4	0.1
33	Darren Waller thin prior (32 touches)	TE	CAR	@ PHI		2.4	-2.5	2.7	1.9	16.0	0.1
34	Mason Taylor thin prior (32 touches)	TE	NYJ	@ NE		2.3	-2.5	2.8	2.0	16.7	0.1
35	Noah Fant thin prior (48 touches)	TE	NO	@ NYG		2.3	-2.6	2.2	1.7	16.6	0.1
36	Noah Gray thin prior (41 touches)	TE	KC	vs LAC		2.2	-2.6	2.2	1.6	15.8	0.1
37	Dawson Knox thin prior (42 touches)	TE	BUF	@ LV		2.2	-2.7	2.0	1.4	15.3	0.1
38	Cole Kmet	TE	CHI	@ ATL		2.2	-2.7	2.0	1.5	15.3	0.1
39	Foster Moreau thin prior (23 touches)	TE	HOU	@ JAX		1.9	-3.0	1.8	1.3	13.4	0.1
40	Jeremy Ruckert thin prior (27 touches)	TE	NYJ	@ NE		1.8	-3.1	1.9	1.4	12.8	0.1
41	Eli Raridon thin prior (0 touches)	TE	NE	vs NYJ		1.8	-3.1	1.8	1.1	12.4	0.1
42	Robert Tonyan thin prior (4 touches)	TE	PIT	@ TB		1.8	-3.1	1.9	1.4	12.4	0.1
43	Adam Trautman thin prior (25 touches)	TE	DEN	vs SEA		1.7	-3.2	1.6	1.2	12.0	0.1
44	Austin Hooper thin prior (37 touches)	TE	ATL	vs CHI		1.6	-3.2	1.6	1.2	11.8	0.1
45	Jonnu Smith ⚠	TE	GB	vs DAL		1.6	-3.3	1.5	1.1	11.1	0.1
46	Elijah Higgins thin prior (30 touches)	TE	ARI	@ LA		1.6	-3.3	1.7	1.2	11.6	0.1
47	Daniel Bellinger thin prior (24 touches)	TE	TEN	@ IND		1.5	-3.3	1.4	1.1	11.3	0.1
48	Nate Boerkircher thin prior (0 touches)	TE	JAX	vs HOU		1.5	-3.3	1.7	1.1	10.8	0.1
49	Payne Durham thin prior (8 touches)	TE	TB	vs PIT		1.5	-3.4	1.4	1.0	10.4	0.1
50	Blake Whiteheart thin prior (6 touches)	TE	CLE	vs BAL		1.4	-3.4	1.4	1.0	10.0	0.1
51	Charlie Woerner thin prior (9 touches)	TE	ATL	vs CHI		1.4	-3.5	1.4	1.0	10.1	0.1
52	Andrew Ogletree thin prior (11 touches)	TE	IND	vs TEN		1.4	-3.5	1.2	0.8	9.5	0.1
53	Brevyn Spann-Ford thin prior (11 touches)	TE	DAL	@ GB		1.4	-3.5	1.4	1.0	9.5	0.1
54	Luke Farrell thin prior (15 touches)	TE	SF	vs WAS		1.3	-3.6	1.1	0.8	8.8	0.1
55	Davis Allen thin prior (23 touches)	TE	LA	vs ARI		1.2	-3.7	1.1	0.8	8.0	0.1
56	Nate Adkins thin prior (11 touches)	TE	DEN	vs SEA		1.1	-3.7	1.1	0.8	7.8	0.1
57	Johnny Mundt thin prior (22 touches)	TE	PHI	vs CAR		1.1	-3.7	1.2	0.8	8.1	0.1
58	Ben Sinnott thin prior (8 touches)	TE	WAS	@ SF		1.0	-3.9	1.0	0.7	7.0	0.1
59	John Bates thin prior (18 touches)	TE	WAS	@ SF		1.0	-3.9	1.0	0.7	7.0	0.0
60	Josh Cuevas thin prior (0 touches)	TE	BAL	@ CLE		0.9	-4.0	1.1	0.7	6.4	0.0
61	Mitchell Evans thin prior (12 touches)	TE	CAR	@ PHI		0.9	-4.0	1.0	0.7	6.2	0.0
62	Luke Schoonmaker thin prior (25 touches)	TE	DAL	@ GB		0.8	-4.0	0.9	0.6	6.1	0.0
63	Eric Saubert thin prior (8 touches)	TE	SEA	@ DEN		0.8	-4.0	1.0	0.7	6.0	0.0
64	Mark Redman thin prior (0 touches)	TE	GB	vs DAL		0.8	-4.0	0.8	0.5	5.9	0.0
65	Sam Roush thin prior (0 touches)	TE	CHI	@ ATL		0.8	-4.1	0.9	0.6	5.6	0.0
66	Ian Thomas thin prior (10 touches)	TE	LV	vs BUF		0.8	-4.1	0.8	0.6	5.7	0.0
67	Teagan Quitoriano thin prior (1 touches)	TE	ARI	@ LA		0.8	-4.1	0.8	0.6	5.5	0.0
68	Will Mallory thin prior (8 touches)	TE	IND	vs TEN		0.8	-4.1	0.7	0.5	5.5	0.0
69	Jake Briningstool thin prior (0 touches)	TE	KC	vs LAC		0.7	-4.1	0.8	0.5	5.2	0.0
70	Jackson Hawes thin prior (10 touches)	TE	BUF	@ LV		0.7	-4.2	0.7	0.5	4.9	0.0
71	Elijah Arroyo thin prior (13 touches)	TE	SEA	@ DEN		0.7	-4.2	0.8	0.5	4.8	0.0
72	Quintin Morris thin prior (8 touches)	TE	JAX	vs HOU		0.6	-4.2	0.6	0.4	4.3	0.0
73	Hayden Rucci thin prior (0 touches)	TE	LAC	@ KC		0.6	-4.2	0.6	0.5	4.4	0.0
74	Thomas Fidone II thin prior (0 touches)	TE	NYG	vs NO		0.6	-4.3	0.6	0.4	4.3	0.0
75	Jelani Woods thin prior (2 touches)	TE	NYJ	@ NE		0.6	-4.3	0.6	0.4	4.2	0.0
76	Cade Stover thin prior (15 touches)	TE	HOU	@ JAX		0.6	-4.3	0.6	0.4	4.1	0.0
77	Ko Kieft thin prior (1 touches)	TE	TB	vs PIT		0.6	-4.3	0.5	0.4	3.9	0.0
78	David Martin-Robinson thin prior (4 touches)	TE	TEN	@ IND		0.6	-4.3	0.5	0.4	3.8	0.0
79	Oscar Delp thin prior (0 touches)	TE	NO	@ NYG		0.5	-4.4	0.5	0.3	3.2	0.0
80	Nick Vannett thin prior (6 touches)	TE	BAL	@ CLE		0.4	-4.4	0.5	0.4	3.0	0.0
81	Carsen Ryan thin prior (0 touches)	TE	CLE	vs BAL		0.4	-4.5	0.4	0.3	2.9	0.0
82	E.J. Jenkins thin prior (1 touches)	TE	PHI	vs CAR		0.4	-4.5	0.3	0.2	2.6	0.0
83	Colson Yankoff thin prior (2 touches)	TE	WAS	@ SF		0.4	-4.5	0.4	0.3	2.7	0.0
84	Brayden Willis thin prior (1 touches)	TE	SF	vs WAS		0.3	-4.5	0.3	0.2	2.3	0.0
85	Cameron Latu thin prior (0 touches)	TE	NE	vs NYJ		0.3	-4.6	0.3	0.2	2.2	0.0
86	Brevin Jordan thin prior (5 touches)	TE	HOU	@ JAX		0.2	-4.7	0.2	0.1	1.2	0.0
87	Treyton Welch thin prior (0 touches)	TE	NO	@ NYG		0.1	-4.8	0.1	0.1	0.7	0.0
88	Shawn Bowman thin prior (0 touches)	TE	ARI	@ LA		0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
89	Nick Muse thin prior (0 touches)	TE	ATL	vs CHI		0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
90	Keleki Latu thin prior (2 touches)	TE	BUF	@ LV		0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
91	Feleipe Franks thin prior (1 touches)	TE	CAR	@ PHI		0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
92	Mike Gesicki thin prior (55 touches)	TE	CIN	BYE	BYE	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
93	Drew Sample thin prior (22 touches)	TE	CIN	BYE	BYE	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
94	Erick All thin prior (7 touches)	TE	CIN	BYE	BYE	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
95	Jack Endries thin prior (0 touches)	TE	CIN	BYE	BYE	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
96	Tanner Hudson thin prior (29 touches)	TE	CIN	BYE	BYE	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
97	Sam LaPorta	TE	DET	BYE	BYE	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
98	Brock Wright thin prior (19 touches)	TE	DET	BYE	BYE	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
99	Tyler Conklin thin prior (44 touches)	TE	DET	BYE	BYE	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
100	Jackson Meeks thin prior (0 touches)	TE	DET	BYE	BYE	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
101	Josh Whyle thin prior (17 touches)	TE	GB	vs DAL		0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
102	Pharaoh Brown thin prior (8 touches)	TE	IND	vs TEN		0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
103	Tanner Koziol thin prior (0 touches)	TE	JAX	vs HOU		0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
104	Max Klare thin prior (0 touches)	TE	LA	vs ARI		0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
105	Greg Dulcich thin prior (21 touches)	TE	MIA	BYE	BYE	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
106	Will Kacmarek thin prior (0 touches)	TE	MIA	BYE	BYE	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
107	Seydou Traore thin prior (0 touches)	TE	MIA	BYE	BYE	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
108	Justin Joly thin prior (0 touches)	TE	MIA	BYE	BYE	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
109	Cole Turner thin prior (3 touches)	TE	MIA	BYE	BYE	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
110	T.J. Hockenson	TE	MIN	BYE	BYE	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
111	Gavin Bartholomew thin prior (0 touches)	TE	MIN	BYE	BYE	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
112	Ben Yurosek thin prior (2 touches)	TE	MIN	BYE	BYE	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
113	Josh Oliver thin prior (24 touches)	TE	MIN	BYE	BYE	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
114	Andrew Beck ⚠	TE	NYJ	@ NE		0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
115	Nick Kallerup thin prior (0 touches)	TE	SEA	@ DEN		0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
116	Bauer Sharp thin prior (0 touches)	TE	TB	vs PIT		0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

VORP = this player's points minus the points of the last startable player at his position (hover the VORP cell to see who). Baseline rank = teams × starters, with FLEX split RB/WR/TE 45/45/10.

Known limitations

Thin priors over-projected QBs. Efficiency comes from 2023–25, regressed toward the league average by sample size. Over Weeks 1–4, QB1s whose prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted dropbacks were projected +3.9 PPR a game too high (9 QBs; established QB1s +0.1). Those rows carry a thin prior chip. From Week 7 (model n8-v3) a QB's passing rates also read his own 2026 dropbacks, weighted against the prior's sample plus a fixed anchor, so a few snaps barely move them. On Weeks 5–6 this halved the thin-QB bias. Rushing rates and the game lines still use the prior: the game-level check of the same change failed.
Team pass volume is a 2023–25 prior too; in-season, only player shares blend toward what is observed. Blending team volume in-season was tested twice and lost to the prior both times.