NFL Player Projections

Week 5 — opponent-adjusted (this week's defence, home/away), availability-weighted, byes zeroed. Components (volume × efficiency) with scoring applied as a view. Model n8-v2 · updated 18d ago.

Week: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8• Season Position: All QB RB WR TE

Scoring: PPR Half Standard DK Rank by: VORP Points ⬇ CSV

League & scoring settings — server-side, from your stored component projections; the URL is the saved config

115 players · ranked by VORP under standard scoring, 12-team league (1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1FLEX). thin prior (n) = the efficiency prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted 2023–25 dropbacks (QB) or 55 touches (RB/WR/TE), so the league average carries about half or more of the line's efficiency; ⚠ = low-sample / rookie (archetype-driven). A designation like Q · 60% means the line is weighted by that play probability; BYE rows project 0 and are kept visible.

Replacement level (VORP is measured against these): QB12 Brock Purdy · 17.8 pts · RB29 Will Shipley · 7.0 pts · WR41 DeMario Douglas · 5.6 pts · TE13 Hunter Henry · 5.1 pts

#	Player	Pos	Tm	Opp	Status	Pts	VORP	Tgt	Rec	RecYd	RecTD
1	Trey McBride	TE	ARI	vs DET		9.1	+4.0	8.7	6.5	66.0	0.4
2	Isaiah Likely thin prior (43 touches)	TE	NYG	@ WAS		8.2	+3.1	6.9	5.1	57.5	0.4
3	Brock Bowers	TE	LV	@ NE		6.7	+1.6	6.5	4.7	47.3	0.3
4	Sam LaPorta	TE	DET	@ ARI		6.3	+1.2	5.4	4.0	44.0	0.3
5	George Kittle	TE	SF	@ SEA		6.1	+1.0	5.4	4.2	42.9	0.3
6	T.J. Hockenson	TE	MIN	@ NO		5.8	+0.7	6.3	4.6	42.7	0.3
7	Tucker Kraft thin prior (51 touches)	TE	GB	vs CHI		5.8	+0.7	4.4	3.2	39.8	0.3
8	Mark Andrews	TE	BAL	@ ATL		5.5	+0.4	4.9	3.6	35.4	0.3
9	Cade Otton	TE	TB	@ DAL		5.3	+0.2	5.5	3.9	39.1	0.2
10	Dalton Kincaid	TE	BUF	@ LA		5.3	+0.2	5.2	3.7	38.2	0.2
11	Brenton Strange thin prior (48 touches)	TE	JAX	vs PHI		5.3	+0.2	5.0	3.7	38.4	0.2
12	Tyler Warren	TE	IND	@ PIT		5.1	+0.0	5.4	3.8	37.1	0.2
13	Hunter Henry	TE	NE	vs LV		5.1	+0.0	4.7	3.3	35.6	0.3
14	Dalton Schultz	TE	HOU	@ TEN		5.1	-0.0	5.1	3.7	37.3	0.2
15	Juwan Johnson	TE	NO	vs MIN		5.0	-0.1	4.9	3.6	37.2	0.2
16	Harold Fannin Jr. thin prior (54 touches)	TE	CLE	@ NYJ		5.0	-0.1	5.2	3.6	34.5	0.3
17	Greg Dulcich thin prior (21 touches)	TE	MIA	vs CIN		4.8	-0.3	4.2	3.0	35.4	0.2
18	Jake Ferguson	TE	DAL	vs TB		4.7	-0.4	4.7	3.5	32.2	0.2
19	Dallas Goedert	TE	PHI	@ JAX		4.5	-0.6	4.2	3.1	29.9	0.3
20	AJ Barner thin prior (45 touches)	TE	SEA	vs SF		4.3	-0.8	3.9	2.9	28.7	0.2
21	Colston Loveland thin prior (41 touches)	TE	CHI	@ GB		4.3	-0.8	4.3	3.1	30.3	0.2
22	Kyle Pitts	TE	ATL	vs BAL		4.2	-0.8	4.0	2.8	30.9	0.2
23	Oronde Gadsden II thin prior (34 touches)	TE	LAC	vs DEN		4.2	-0.8	4.2	3.0	31.2	0.2
24	Kenyon Sadiq thin prior (0 touches)	TE	NYJ	vs CLE		4.2	-0.9	4.8	3.1	29.7	0.2
25	Mike Gesicki thin prior (55 touches)	TE	CIN	@ MIA		4.1	-1.0	4.2	3.0	30.0	0.2
26	Chig Okonkwo ⚠	TE	WAS	vs NYG		4.1	-1.0	4.1	2.9	30.5	0.2
27	Pat Freiermuth	TE	PIT	vs IND		3.9	-1.2	3.2	2.4	27.0	0.2
28	Darnell Washington thin prior (31 touches)	TE	PIT	vs IND		3.7	-1.4	3.4	2.4	27.1	0.2
29	Michael Mayer thin prior (43 touches)	TE	LV	@ NE		3.4	-1.7	3.7	2.6	24.7	0.2
30	Gunnar Helm thin prior (28 touches)	TE	TEN	vs HOU		3.2	-1.9	3.4	2.5	22.8	0.2
31	Colby Parkinson thin prior (50 touches)	TE	LA	vs BUF		3.2	-1.9	2.9	2.1	20.7	0.2
32	Charlie Kolar thin prior (13 touches)	TE	LAC	vs DEN	Q · 68%	3.1	-2.0	2.8	2.0	21.6	0.2
33	Tyler Higbee thin prior (36 touches)	TE	LA	vs BUF		2.9	-2.2	2.9	2.1	20.2	0.2
34	Evan Engram	TE	DEN	@ LAC		2.7	-2.4	3.5	2.6	20.4	0.1
35	Noah Fant thin prior (48 touches)	TE	NO	vs MIN		2.2	-2.9	2.2	1.7	16.1	0.1
36	Cole Kmet	TE	CHI	@ GB		2.2	-2.9	2.1	1.6	15.6	0.1
37	Theo Johnson thin prior (50 touches)	TE	NYG	@ WAS		2.2	-2.9	2.0	1.3	15.2	0.1
38	Dawson Knox thin prior (42 touches)	TE	BUF	@ LA		1.9	-3.1	1.9	1.4	13.7	0.1
39	Drew Sample thin prior (22 touches)	TE	CIN	@ MIA		1.9	-3.2	1.9	1.4	12.8	0.1
40	Foster Moreau thin prior (23 touches)	TE	HOU	@ TEN		1.8	-3.3	1.6	1.2	12.8	0.1
41	Mason Taylor thin prior (32 touches)	TE	NYJ	vs CLE		1.8	-3.3	2.1	1.5	12.6	0.1
42	Elijah Higgins thin prior (30 touches)	TE	ARI	vs DET		1.6	-3.5	1.6	1.2	11.9	0.1
43	Austin Hooper thin prior (37 touches)	TE	ATL	vs BAL		1.6	-3.5	1.6	1.2	11.7	0.1
44	Adam Trautman thin prior (25 touches)	TE	DEN	@ LAC		1.6	-3.5	1.6	1.2	11.4	0.1
45	Jonnu Smith ⚠	TE	GB	vs CHI		1.6	-3.5	1.6	1.2	11.1	0.1
46	Nate Boerkircher thin prior (0 touches)	TE	JAX	vs PHI		1.5	-3.5	1.7	1.1	10.9	0.1
47	Eli Raridon thin prior (0 touches)	TE	NE	vs LV		1.5	-3.6	1.6	1.0	10.7	0.1
48	Payne Durham thin prior (8 touches)	TE	TB	@ DAL		1.5	-3.6	1.5	1.0	10.6	0.1
49	Daniel Bellinger thin prior (24 touches)	TE	TEN	vs HOU		1.5	-3.6	1.4	1.0	10.8	0.1
50	Brevyn Spann-Ford thin prior (11 touches)	TE	DAL	vs TB		1.4	-3.7	1.3	1.0	10.1	0.1
51	Jeremy Ruckert thin prior (27 touches)	TE	NYJ	vs CLE		1.4	-3.7	1.6	1.2	10.2	0.1
52	Will Kacmarek thin prior (0 touches)	TE	MIA	vs CIN		1.4	-3.7	1.4	0.9	9.8	0.1
53	Ben Sinnott thin prior (8 touches)	TE	WAS	vs NYG		1.4	-3.7	1.2	0.9	9.6	0.1
54	Zach Ertz ⚠	TE	PHI	@ JAX		1.4	-3.7	1.6	1.1	9.3	0.1
55	Blake Whiteheart thin prior (6 touches)	TE	CLE	@ NYJ		1.4	-3.7	1.3	0.9	9.4	0.1
56	Matthew Hibner thin prior (0 touches)	TE	BAL	@ ATL		1.3	-3.8	1.5	0.9	9.3	0.1
57	Charlie Woerner thin prior (9 touches)	TE	ATL	vs BAL		1.3	-3.8	1.3	1.0	9.3	0.1
58	Johnny Mundt thin prior (22 touches)	TE	PHI	@ JAX		1.3	-3.8	1.4	1.0	9.0	0.1
59	Brock Wright thin prior (19 touches)	TE	DET	@ ARI		1.3	-3.8	1.2	0.9	8.4	0.1
60	Mo Alie-Cox thin prior (21 touches)	TE	IND	@ PIT		1.3	-3.8	1.4	1.0	8.7	0.1
61	Gavin Bartholomew thin prior (0 touches)	TE	MIN	@ NO		1.2	-3.9	1.4	0.9	8.8	0.1
62	Erick All thin prior (7 touches)	TE	CIN	@ MIA		1.2	-3.9	1.2	0.9	8.7	0.1
63	John Bates thin prior (18 touches)	TE	WAS	vs NYG		1.2	-3.9	1.1	0.8	8.3	0.1
64	Nate Adkins thin prior (11 touches)	TE	DEN	@ LAC		1.1	-4.0	1.1	0.8	7.4	0.1
65	Davis Allen thin prior (23 touches)	TE	LA	vs BUF		1.1	-4.0	1.1	0.8	7.4	0.1
66	Eric Saubert thin prior (8 touches)	TE	SEA	vs SF		1.1	-4.0	1.1	0.8	7.6	0.1
67	Luke Farrell thin prior (15 touches)	TE	SF	@ SEA		1.1	-4.0	1.1	0.8	7.4	0.1
68	Luke Schoonmaker thin prior (25 touches)	TE	DAL	vs TB		1.0	-4.1	0.9	0.7	6.8	0.0
69	Sam Roush thin prior (0 touches)	TE	CHI	@ GB		0.9	-4.2	1.0	0.7	6.5	0.0
70	Jackson Hawes thin prior (10 touches)	TE	BUF	@ LA		0.8	-4.3	0.8	0.6	5.7	0.0
71	Mark Redman thin prior (0 touches)	TE	GB	vs CHI		0.8	-4.3	0.9	0.6	5.9	0.0
72	Ian Thomas thin prior (10 touches)	TE	LV	@ NE		0.8	-4.3	0.8	0.6	5.7	0.0
73	Hayden Rucci thin prior (0 touches)	TE	LAC	vs DEN		0.8	-4.3	0.8	0.5	5.5	0.0
74	Quintin Morris thin prior (8 touches)	TE	JAX	vs PHI		0.8	-4.3	0.8	0.5	5.2	0.0
75	Elijah Arroyo thin prior (13 touches)	TE	SEA	vs SF		0.7	-4.4	0.7	0.5	5.0	0.0
76	Cade Stover thin prior (15 touches)	TE	HOU	@ TEN		0.7	-4.4	0.7	0.5	4.9	0.0
77	Robert Tonyan thin prior (4 touches)	TE	PIT	vs IND		0.7	-4.4	0.7	0.5	5.0	0.0
78	Teagan Quitoriano thin prior (1 touches)	TE	ARI	vs DET		0.7	-4.4	0.6	0.5	4.8	0.0
79	Andrew Ogletree thin prior (11 touches)	TE	IND	@ PIT		0.7	-4.4	0.7	0.5	4.5	0.0
80	Seydou Traore thin prior (0 touches)	TE	MIA	vs CIN		0.6	-4.5	0.6	0.4	4.4	0.0
81	Tyler Conklin thin prior (44 touches)	TE	DET	@ ARI		0.6	-4.5	0.6	0.4	4.3	0.0
82	Ko Kieft thin prior (1 touches)	TE	TB	@ DAL		0.6	-4.5	0.5	0.4	3.9	0.0
83	Kylen Granson thin prior (24 touches)	TE	TEN	vs HOU		0.5	-4.6	0.6	0.4	3.8	0.0
84	Oscar Delp thin prior (0 touches)	TE	NO	vs MIN		0.5	-4.6	0.6	0.4	3.5	0.0
85	Colson Yankoff thin prior (2 touches)	TE	WAS	vs NYG		0.5	-4.6	0.5	0.3	3.5	0.0
86	Josh Cuevas thin prior (0 touches)	TE	BAL	@ ATL		0.5	-4.6	0.5	0.3	3.2	0.0
87	Tanner Hudson thin prior (29 touches)	TE	CIN	@ MIA		0.5	-4.6	0.5	0.3	3.1	0.0
88	Ben Yurosek thin prior (2 touches)	TE	MIN	@ NO	Q · 74%	0.4	-4.7	0.4	0.3	2.9	0.0
89	Cameron Latu thin prior (0 touches)	TE	NE	vs LV		0.4	-4.7	0.4	0.3	2.9	0.0
90	Jelani Woods thin prior (2 touches)	TE	NYJ	vs CLE		0.4	-4.7	0.4	0.3	2.7	0.0
91	Brayden Willis thin prior (1 touches)	TE	SF	@ SEA		0.3	-4.8	0.3	0.2	2.3	0.0
92	Brevin Jordan thin prior (5 touches)	TE	HOU	@ TEN		0.2	-4.8	0.2	0.2	1.7	0.0
93	Treyton Welch thin prior (0 touches)	TE	NO	vs MIN		0.1	-5.0	0.1	0.1	0.7	0.0
94	Nick Muse thin prior (0 touches)	TE	ATL	vs BAL		0.0	-5.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
95	Nick Vannett thin prior (6 touches)	TE	BAL	@ ATL		0.0	-5.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
96	Keleki Latu thin prior (2 touches)	TE	BUF	@ LA		0.0	-5.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
97	Tommy Tremble thin prior (34 touches)	TE	CAR	BYE	BYE	0.0	-5.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
98	Darren Waller thin prior (32 touches)	TE	CAR	BYE	BYE	0.0	-5.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
99	Mitchell Evans thin prior (12 touches)	TE	CAR	BYE	BYE	0.0	-5.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
100	Feleipe Franks thin prior (1 touches)	TE	CAR	BYE	BYE	0.0	-5.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
101	Ja'Tavion Sanders thin prior (30 touches)	TE	CAR	BYE	BYE	0.0	-5.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
102	Dallen Bentley thin prior (0 touches)	TE	DEN	@ LAC		0.0	-5.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
103	Josh Whyle thin prior (17 touches)	TE	GB	vs CHI		0.0	-5.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
104	Tanner Koziol thin prior (0 touches)	TE	JAX	vs PHI		0.0	-5.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
105	Travis Kelce	TE	KC	BYE	BYE	0.0	-5.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
106	Noah Gray thin prior (41 touches)	TE	KC	BYE	BYE	0.0	-5.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
107	Jake Briningstool thin prior (0 touches)	TE	KC	BYE	BYE	0.0	-5.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
108	Jared Wiley thin prior (1 touches)	TE	KC	BYE	BYE	0.0	-5.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
109	John Michael Gyllenborg thin prior (0 touches)	TE	KC	BYE	BYE	0.0	-5.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
110	Tanner Arkin thin prior (0 touches)	TE	NE	vs LV		0.0	-5.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
111	Thomas Fidone II thin prior (0 touches)	TE	NYG	@ WAS		0.0	-5.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
112	Andrew Beck ⚠	TE	NYJ	vs CLE		0.0	-5.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
113	E.J. Jenkins thin prior (1 touches)	TE	PHI	@ JAX		0.0	-5.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
114	Jack Stoll thin prior (8 touches)	TE	SF	@ SEA		0.0	-5.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
115	Bauer Sharp thin prior (0 touches)	TE	TB	@ DAL		0.0	-5.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

VORP = this player's points minus the points of the last startable player at his position (hover the VORP cell to see who). Baseline rank = teams × starters, with FLEX split RB/WR/TE 45/45/10.

Known limitations

Thin priors over-projected QBs. Efficiency comes from 2023–25, regressed toward the league average by sample size. Over Weeks 1–4, QB1s whose prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted dropbacks were projected +3.9 PPR a game too high (9 QBs; established QB1s +0.1). Those rows carry a thin prior chip. From Week 7 (model n8-v3) a QB's passing rates also read his own 2026 dropbacks, weighted against the prior's sample plus a fixed anchor, so a few snaps barely move them. On Weeks 5–6 this halved the thin-QB bias. Rushing rates and the game lines still use the prior: the game-level check of the same change failed.
Team pass volume is a 2023–25 prior too; in-season, only player shares blend toward what is observed. Blending team volume in-season was tested twice and lost to the prior both times.