NFL Player Projections

Week 3 — opponent-adjusted (this week's defence, home/away), availability-weighted, byes zeroed. Components (volume × efficiency) with scoring applied as a view. Model n8-v2 · updated 32d ago.

Week: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8• Season Position: All QB RB WR TE

Scoring: PPR Half Standard DK Rank by: VORP Points ⬇ CSV

League & scoring settings — server-side, from your stored component projections; the URL is the saved config

110 players · ranked by VORP under standard scoring, 12-team league (1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1FLEX). thin prior (n) = the efficiency prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted 2023–25 dropbacks (QB) or 55 touches (RB/WR/TE), so the league average carries about half or more of the line's efficiency; ⚠ = low-sample / rookie (archetype-driven). A designation like Q · 60% means the line is weighted by that play probability; BYE rows project 0 and are kept visible.

Replacement level (VORP is measured against these): QB12 Baker Mayfield · 17.7 pts · RB29 Jeremiyah Love · 8.2 pts · WR41 Mike Evans · 6.0 pts · TE13 Tyler Warren · 4.9 pts

#	Player	Pos	Tm	Opp	Status	Pts	VORP	Tgt	Rec	RecYd	RecTD
1	Trey McBride	TE	ARI	@ SF		8.7	+3.7	8.7	6.5	62.7	0.4
2	Isaiah Likely thin prior (43 touches)	TE	NYG	vs TEN		7.5	+2.6	6.1	4.4	52.8	0.4
3	Sam LaPorta	TE	DET	vs NYJ		6.4	+1.5	5.0	3.7	44.4	0.3
4	Dalton Schultz	TE	HOU	@ IND		6.2	+1.3	6.5	4.7	45.9	0.3
5	George Kittle	TE	SF	vs ARI		6.2	+1.3	4.7	3.7	43.8	0.3
6	Travis Kelce	TE	KC	@ MIA		5.8	+0.9	6.6	4.8	42.5	0.3
7	Dalton Kincaid	TE	BUF	vs LAC		5.7	+0.7	5.1	3.7	40.7	0.3
8	Tucker Kraft thin prior (51 touches)	TE	GB	vs ATL		5.5	+0.6	4.1	3.0	38.1	0.3
9	Mark Andrews	TE	BAL	@ DAL		5.2	+0.3	4.6	3.4	33.7	0.3
10	Jake Ferguson	TE	DAL	vs BAL		5.1	+0.2	5.2	3.8	34.8	0.3
11	Pat Freiermuth	TE	PIT	vs CIN		5.0	+0.1	4.0	3.0	34.5	0.3
12	Juwan Johnson	TE	NO	vs LV		4.9	+0.0	4.4	3.2	36.5	0.2
13	Tyler Warren	TE	IND	vs HOU		4.9	+0.0	5.1	3.6	35.6	0.2
14	Cade Otton	TE	TB	vs MIN		4.7	-0.2	5.1	3.6	34.6	0.2
15	Michael Mayer thin prior (43 touches)	TE	LV	@ NO		4.7	-0.2	5.3	3.7	34.1	0.2
16	Hunter Henry	TE	NE	@ JAX		4.7	-0.2	4.8	3.3	32.8	0.2
17	T.J. Hockenson	TE	MIN	@ TB		4.7	-0.2	4.9	3.6	34.2	0.2
18	Harold Fannin Jr. thin prior (54 touches)	TE	CLE	vs CAR		4.6	-0.3	4.6	3.2	32.0	0.2
19	Brenton Strange thin prior (48 touches)	TE	JAX	vs NE		4.4	-0.5	3.9	2.9	32.1	0.2
20	Mike Gesicki thin prior (55 touches)	TE	CIN	@ PIT		4.4	-0.5	4.8	3.4	32.1	0.2
21	Terrance Ferguson thin prior (12 touches)	TE	LA	@ DEN		4.3	-0.6	4.6	3.0	29.6	0.2
22	Kyle Pitts	TE	ATL	@ GB		4.2	-0.7	4.2	2.9	30.9	0.2
23	Greg Dulcich thin prior (21 touches)	TE	MIA	vs KC		3.9	-1.0	3.7	2.7	28.8	0.2
24	Kenyon Sadiq thin prior (0 touches)	TE	NYJ	@ DET		3.8	-1.1	4.4	2.8	26.8	0.2
25	Oronde Gadsden II thin prior (34 touches)	TE	LAC	@ BUF		3.7	-1.2	3.8	2.8	27.2	0.2
26	Gunnar Helm thin prior (28 touches)	TE	TEN	@ NYG		3.7	-1.2	3.9	2.9	26.1	0.2
27	Colston Loveland thin prior (41 touches)	TE	CHI	vs PHI		3.7	-1.2	3.6	2.6	25.8	0.2
28	Tommy Tremble thin prior (34 touches)	TE	CAR	@ CLE		3.6	-1.3	4.0	2.9	25.0	0.2
29	Ben Sinnott thin prior (8 touches)	TE	WAS	vs SEA		3.5	-1.4	3.4	2.6	24.8	0.2
30	AJ Barner thin prior (45 touches)	TE	SEA	@ WAS		3.5	-1.4	3.1	2.3	23.4	0.2
31	Johnny Mundt thin prior (22 touches)	TE	PHI	@ CHI		3.5	-1.4	3.9	2.7	24.3	0.2
32	Evan Engram	TE	DEN	vs LA		3.0	-1.9	3.7	2.6	22.6	0.1
33	Theo Johnson thin prior (50 touches)	TE	NYG	vs TEN		2.5	-2.4	2.2	1.5	17.6	0.1
34	Cole Kmet	TE	CHI	vs PHI		2.5	-2.4	2.4	1.7	17.6	0.1
35	Josh Oliver thin prior (24 touches)	TE	MIN	@ TB		2.3	-2.6	2.1	1.5	15.5	0.1
36	Noah Fant thin prior (48 touches)	TE	NO	vs LV		2.2	-2.7	2.0	1.5	15.9	0.1
37	Brock Bowers	TE	LV	@ NO	Q · 45%	2.2	-2.8	2.2	1.6	15.2	0.1
38	Adam Trautman thin prior (25 touches)	TE	DEN	vs LA		2.0	-2.9	1.9	1.4	14.1	0.1
39	Dawson Knox thin prior (42 touches)	TE	BUF	vs LAC		1.8	-3.1	1.7	1.2	12.9	0.1
40	Darnell Washington thin prior (31 touches)	TE	PIT	vs CIN		1.8	-3.1	1.6	1.1	13.1	0.1
41	Foster Moreau thin prior (23 touches)	TE	HOU	@ IND		1.8	-3.1	1.7	1.2	12.4	0.1
42	Jonnu Smith ⚠	TE	GB	vs ATL		1.8	-3.1	1.7	1.3	12.2	0.1
43	Drew Sample thin prior (22 touches)	TE	CIN	@ PIT		1.8	-3.2	1.9	1.4	12.1	0.1
44	Colby Parkinson thin prior (50 touches)	TE	LA	@ DEN	Q · 45%	1.8	-3.2	1.7	1.3	11.4	0.1
45	Hayden Rucci thin prior (0 touches)	TE	LAC	@ BUF		1.8	-3.2	1.8	1.3	12.4	0.1
46	Blake Whiteheart thin prior (6 touches)	TE	CLE	vs CAR		1.7	-3.2	1.6	1.1	12.1	0.1
47	John Bates thin prior (18 touches)	TE	WAS	vs SEA		1.7	-3.2	1.7	1.2	11.9	0.1
48	Darren Waller thin prior (32 touches)	TE	CAR	@ CLE		1.6	-3.3	1.9	1.4	11.1	0.1
49	Brevyn Spann-Ford thin prior (11 touches)	TE	DAL	vs BAL		1.6	-3.3	1.6	1.1	11.7	0.1
50	Noah Gray thin prior (41 touches)	TE	KC	@ MIA		1.6	-3.3	1.6	1.1	11.4	0.1
51	Nate Boerkircher thin prior (0 touches)	TE	JAX	vs NE		1.6	-3.3	1.6	1.0	11.1	0.1
52	Payne Durham thin prior (8 touches)	TE	TB	vs MIN		1.5	-3.4	1.6	1.1	10.7	0.1
53	Mo Alie-Cox thin prior (21 touches)	TE	IND	vs HOU		1.5	-3.4	1.6	1.1	10.3	0.1
54	Jeremy Ruckert thin prior (27 touches)	TE	NYJ	@ DET		1.5	-3.4	1.7	1.2	10.5	0.1
55	Daniel Bellinger thin prior (24 touches)	TE	TEN	@ NYG		1.5	-3.4	1.4	1.0	10.8	0.1
56	Luke Farrell thin prior (15 touches)	TE	SF	vs ARI		1.4	-3.5	1.3	1.0	10.1	0.1
57	E.J. Jenkins thin prior (1 touches)	TE	PHI	@ CHI		1.4	-3.5	1.4	1.0	9.9	0.1
58	Davis Allen thin prior (23 touches)	TE	LA	@ DEN		1.4	-3.5	1.5	1.0	9.3	0.1
59	Will Kacmarek thin prior (0 touches)	TE	MIA	vs KC		1.3	-3.6	1.4	0.9	9.3	0.1
60	Elijah Higgins thin prior (30 touches)	TE	ARI	@ SF		1.3	-3.6	1.3	1.0	9.4	0.1
61	Charlie Woerner thin prior (9 touches)	TE	ATL	@ GB		1.2	-3.7	1.3	0.9	8.8	0.1
62	Austin Hooper thin prior (37 touches)	TE	ATL	@ GB		1.2	-3.7	1.3	0.9	8.9	0.1
63	Brock Wright thin prior (19 touches)	TE	DET	vs NYJ		1.2	-3.7	1.1	0.8	8.3	0.1
64	Cameron Latu thin prior (0 touches)	TE	NE	@ JAX		1.2	-3.7	1.2	0.9	8.5	0.1
65	Erick All thin prior (7 touches)	TE	CIN	@ PIT		1.1	-3.8	1.2	0.9	8.2	0.1
66	Eric Saubert thin prior (8 touches)	TE	SEA	@ WAS		1.1	-3.8	1.1	0.8	7.9	0.1
67	Durham Smythe thin prior (17 touches)	TE	BAL	@ DAL		1.1	-3.8	1.2	0.8	7.9	0.1
68	Ian Thomas thin prior (10 touches)	TE	LV	@ NO		1.1	-3.8	1.2	0.8	7.9	0.1
69	Nate Adkins thin prior (11 touches)	TE	DEN	vs LA		1.0	-3.9	1.0	0.7	6.9	0.1
70	Luke Schoonmaker thin prior (25 touches)	TE	DAL	vs BAL		1.0	-3.9	1.0	0.7	7.1	0.0
71	Sam Roush thin prior (0 touches)	TE	CHI	vs PHI		1.0	-3.9	1.1	0.7	7.0	0.0
72	Quintin Morris thin prior (8 touches)	TE	JAX	vs NE		0.9	-4.0	0.9	0.6	6.5	0.1
73	Andrew Ogletree thin prior (11 touches)	TE	IND	vs HOU		0.8	-4.1	0.8	0.6	5.6	0.0
74	Mitchell Evans thin prior (12 touches)	TE	CAR	@ CLE		0.8	-4.1	0.9	0.7	5.5	0.0
75	Jake Briningstool thin prior (0 touches)	TE	KC	@ MIA		0.7	-4.2	0.8	0.5	5.1	0.0
76	Elijah Arroyo thin prior (13 touches)	TE	SEA	@ WAS		0.7	-4.2	0.7	0.5	5.0	0.0
77	Tyler Higbee thin prior (36 touches)	TE	LA	@ DEN		0.7	-4.2	0.7	0.5	4.5	0.0
78	Jackson Meeks thin prior (0 touches)	TE	DET	vs NYJ		0.7	-4.3	0.6	0.3	4.7	0.0
79	Marlin Klein thin prior (0 touches)	TE	HOU	@ IND		0.7	-4.3	0.7	0.5	4.6	0.0
80	Oscar Delp thin prior (0 touches)	TE	NO	vs LV		0.7	-4.3	0.7	0.4	4.6	0.0
81	Ko Kieft thin prior (1 touches)	TE	TB	vs MIN		0.6	-4.3	0.7	0.5	4.5	0.0
82	Jackson Hawes thin prior (10 touches)	TE	BUF	vs LAC		0.6	-4.3	0.6	0.4	4.4	0.0
83	Jelani Woods thin prior (2 touches)	TE	NYJ	@ DET		0.6	-4.3	0.7	0.5	4.4	0.0
84	Patrick Herbert thin prior (0 touches)	TE	LAC	@ BUF		0.6	-4.3	0.7	0.5	4.4	0.0
85	Mark Redman thin prior (0 touches)	TE	GB	vs ATL		0.6	-4.3	0.6	0.4	4.3	0.0
86	Robert Tonyan thin prior (4 touches)	TE	PIT	vs CIN		0.6	-4.3	0.6	0.4	4.4	0.0
87	Seydou Traore thin prior (0 touches)	TE	MIA	vs KC		0.6	-4.3	0.6	0.4	4.0	0.0
88	Matthew Hibner thin prior (0 touches)	TE	BAL	@ DAL		0.6	-4.3	0.6	0.4	3.9	0.0
89	David Martin-Robinson thin prior (4 touches)	TE	TEN	@ NYG		0.6	-4.4	0.5	0.4	3.8	0.0
90	Colson Yankoff thin prior (2 touches)	TE	WAS	vs SEA		0.6	-4.4	0.5	0.4	3.9	0.0
91	Tanner Arkin thin prior (0 touches)	TE	NE	@ JAX		0.5	-4.4	0.6	0.4	3.7	0.0
92	Gavin Bartholomew thin prior (0 touches)	TE	MIN	@ TB		0.5	-4.4	0.6	0.4	3.6	0.0
93	Brayden Willis thin prior (1 touches)	TE	SF	vs ARI		0.5	-4.4	0.5	0.3	3.7	0.0
94	Carsen Ryan thin prior (0 touches)	TE	CLE	vs CAR		0.5	-4.4	0.5	0.3	3.5	0.0
95	Hunter Long thin prior (11 touches)	TE	ARI	@ SF		0.4	-4.5	0.4	0.3	2.9	0.0
96	Tanner Hudson thin prior (29 touches)	TE	CIN	@ PIT		0.2	-4.7	0.2	0.1	1.3	0.0
97	Cade Stover thin prior (15 touches)	TE	HOU	@ IND		0.2	-4.7	0.2	0.1	1.2	0.0
98	Nick Muse thin prior (0 touches)	TE	ATL	@ GB		0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
99	Josh Cuevas thin prior (0 touches)	TE	BAL	@ DAL		0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
100	Keleki Latu thin prior (2 touches)	TE	BUF	vs LAC		0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
101	Feleipe Franks thin prior (1 touches)	TE	CAR	@ CLE		0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
102	Dallen Bentley thin prior (0 touches)	TE	DEN	vs LA		0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
103	Josh Whyle thin prior (17 touches)	TE	GB	vs ATL		0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
104	Tanner Koziol thin prior (0 touches)	TE	JAX	vs NE		0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
105	Jared Wiley thin prior (1 touches)	TE	KC	@ MIA		0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
106	Max Klare thin prior (0 touches)	TE	LA	@ DEN		0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
107	Justin Joly thin prior (0 touches)	TE	MIA	vs KC		0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
108	Andrew Beck ⚠	TE	NYJ	@ DET		0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
109	Nick Kallerup thin prior (0 touches)	TE	SEA	@ WAS		0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
110	Bauer Sharp thin prior (0 touches)	TE	TB	vs MIN		0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

VORP = this player's points minus the points of the last startable player at his position (hover the VORP cell to see who). Baseline rank = teams × starters, with FLEX split RB/WR/TE 45/45/10.

Known limitations

Thin priors over-projected QBs. Efficiency comes from 2023–25, regressed toward the league average by sample size. Over Weeks 1–4, QB1s whose prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted dropbacks were projected +3.9 PPR a game too high (9 QBs; established QB1s +0.1). Those rows carry a thin prior chip. From Week 7 (model n8-v3) a QB's passing rates also read his own 2026 dropbacks, weighted against the prior's sample plus a fixed anchor, so a few snaps barely move them. On Weeks 5–6 this halved the thin-QB bias. Rushing rates and the game lines still use the prior: the game-level check of the same change failed.
Team pass volume is a 2023–25 prior too; in-season, only player shares blend toward what is observed. Blending team volume in-season was tested twice and lost to the prior both times.