NFL Player Projections

Week 1 — opponent-adjusted (this week's defence, home/away), availability-weighted, byes zeroed. Components (volume × efficiency) with scoring applied as a view. Model n8-v2 · updated 46d ago.

Week: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8• Season Position: All QB RB WR TE

Scoring: PPR Half Standard DK Rank by: VORP Points ⬇ CSV

League & scoring settings — server-side, from your stored component projections; the URL is the saved config

131 players · ranked by VORP under standard scoring, 12-team league (1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1FLEX). thin prior (n) = the efficiency prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted 2023–25 dropbacks (QB) or 55 touches (RB/WR/TE), so the league average carries about half or more of the line's efficiency; ⚠ = low-sample / rookie (archetype-driven). A designation like Q · 60% means the line is weighted by that play probability; BYE rows project 0 and are kept visible.

Replacement level (VORP is measured against these): QB12 Patrick Mahomes · 17.1 pts · RB29 Jacory Croskey-Merritt · 8.0 pts · WR41 Malik Washington · 6.0 pts · TE13 Colby Parkinson · 4.9 pts

#	Player	Pos	Tm	Opp	Pts	VORP	Tgt	Rec	RecYd	RecTD
1	Trey McBride	TE	ARI	@ LAC	6.7	+1.8	7.0	5.2	48.5	0.3
2	Charlie Kolar thin prior (13 touches)	TE	LAC	vs ARI	6.0	+1.1	5.0	3.6	42.1	0.3
3	Isaiah Likely thin prior (43 touches)	TE	NYG	vs DAL	5.6	+0.6	4.6	3.3	38.9	0.3
4	Jake Ferguson	TE	DAL	@ NYG	5.5	+0.6	5.8	4.3	37.4	0.3
5	Travis Kelce	TE	KC	vs DEN	5.4	+0.5	6.3	4.6	39.8	0.2
6	Dallas Goedert	TE	PHI	vs WAS	5.3	+0.4	4.3	3.1	34.9	0.3
7	Dalton Schultz	TE	HOU	vs BUF	5.2	+0.3	5.3	3.8	38.4	0.2
8	Sam LaPorta	TE	DET	vs NO	5.2	+0.2	4.4	3.2	35.7	0.3
9	George Kittle	TE	SF	@ LA	5.1	+0.2	4.5	3.5	35.9	0.3
10	Cade Otton	TE	TB	@ CIN	5.1	+0.2	5.2	3.7	37.5	0.2
11	Kyle Pitts	TE	ATL	@ PIT	5.0	+0.1	5.0	3.5	36.2	0.2
12	Juwan Johnson	TE	NO	@ DET	4.9	+0.0	4.9	3.6	36.5	0.2
13	Colby Parkinson thin prior (50 touches)	TE	LA	vs SF	4.9	+0.0	4.4	3.1	32.2	0.3
14	Tucker Kraft thin prior (51 touches)	TE	GB	@ MIN	4.8	-0.1	4.2	3.1	32.8	0.2
15	Brenton Strange thin prior (48 touches)	TE	JAX	vs CLE	4.6	-0.3	4.5	3.3	33.3	0.2
16	Mike Gesicki thin prior (55 touches)	TE	CIN	vs TB	4.5	-0.4	4.4	3.2	32.9	0.2
17	T.J. Hockenson	TE	MIN	vs GB	4.5	-0.4	4.4	3.2	33.2	0.2
18	Tyler Warren	TE	IND	vs BAL	4.5	-0.4	4.5	3.1	32.5	0.2
19	Hunter Henry	TE	NE	@ SEA	4.4	-0.5	4.7	3.3	31.0	0.2
20	Tommy Tremble thin prior (34 touches)	TE	CAR	vs CHI	4.4	-0.5	4.1	3.0	30.3	0.2
21	Mark Andrews	TE	BAL	@ IND	4.4	-0.5	3.9	2.9	28.3	0.3
22	Michael Mayer thin prior (43 touches)	TE	LV	vs MIA	4.3	-0.7	4.2	2.9	31.1	0.2
23	AJ Barner thin prior (45 touches)	TE	SEA	vs NE	4.3	-0.7	3.8	2.8	28.4	0.2
24	Colston Loveland thin prior (41 touches)	TE	CHI	@ CAR	4.2	-0.7	4.1	2.9	29.8	0.2
25	Darnell Washington thin prior (31 touches)	TE	PIT	vs ATL	4.2	-0.7	3.8	2.8	31.0	0.2
26	Greg Dulcich thin prior (21 touches)	TE	MIA	@ LV	4.2	-0.7	4.1	2.9	30.6	0.2
27	Harold Fannin Jr. thin prior (54 touches)	TE	CLE	@ JAX	4.1	-0.8	4.5	3.1	28.4	0.2
28	Dalton Kincaid	TE	BUF	@ HOU	4.0	-0.9	4.0	2.9	29.1	0.2
29	Gunnar Helm thin prior (28 touches)	TE	TEN	vs NYJ	3.9	-1.0	3.7	2.8	27.7	0.2
30	Chig Okonkwo ⚠	TE	WAS	@ PHI	3.8	-1.1	4.4	3.1	28.2	0.2
31	Mason Taylor thin prior (32 touches)	TE	NYJ	@ TEN	3.5	-1.4	4.0	2.8	25.0	0.2
32	Evan Engram	TE	DEN	@ KC	3.0	-1.9	3.8	2.7	22.1	0.1
33	Pat Freiermuth	TE	PIT	vs ATL	2.9	-2.0	2.4	1.8	20.0	0.1
34	Cole Kmet	TE	CHI	@ CAR	2.7	-2.2	2.5	1.8	18.9	0.1
35	Theo Johnson thin prior (50 touches)	TE	NYG	vs DAL	2.3	-2.6	2.0	1.4	16.0	0.1
36	Noah Gray thin prior (41 touches)	TE	KC	vs DEN	2.0	-3.0	2.0	1.4	13.8	0.1
37	Tyler Higbee thin prior (36 touches)	TE	LA	vs SF	1.9	-3.0	1.9	1.3	13.2	0.1
38	Foster Moreau thin prior (23 touches)	TE	HOU	vs BUF	1.8	-3.1	1.6	1.2	12.6	0.1
39	David Njoku ⚠	TE	LAC	vs ARI	1.8	-3.1	1.7	1.1	11.8	0.1
40	Josh Oliver thin prior (24 touches)	TE	MIN	vs GB	1.8	-3.2	1.5	1.1	11.6	0.1
41	Daniel Bellinger thin prior (24 touches)	TE	TEN	vs NYJ	1.8	-3.2	1.5	1.1	12.8	0.1
42	Brevyn Spann-Ford thin prior (11 touches)	TE	DAL	@ NYG	1.7	-3.2	1.7	1.2	12.3	0.1
43	Payne Durham thin prior (8 touches)	TE	TB	@ CIN	1.7	-3.2	1.6	1.2	12.1	0.1
44	Dawson Knox thin prior (42 touches)	TE	BUF	@ HOU	1.7	-3.2	1.7	1.2	12.1	0.1
45	Drew Sample thin prior (22 touches)	TE	CIN	vs TB	1.7	-3.2	1.7	1.3	11.9	0.1
46	Ian Thomas thin prior (10 touches)	TE	LV	vs MIA	1.7	-3.2	1.6	1.1	12.2	0.1
47	Blake Whiteheart thin prior (6 touches)	TE	CLE	@ JAX	1.6	-3.3	1.7	1.2	11.2	0.1
48	Noah Fant thin prior (48 touches)	TE	NO	@ DET	1.6	-3.3	1.6	1.2	11.6	0.1
49	Mo Alie-Cox thin prior (21 touches)	TE	IND	vs BAL	1.6	-3.4	1.6	1.1	10.8	0.1
50	Nate Boerkircher thin prior (0 touches)	TE	JAX	vs CLE	1.5	-3.4	1.8	1.1	10.8	0.1
51	Elijah Higgins thin prior (30 touches)	TE	ARI	@ LAC	1.5	-3.4	1.6	1.2	11.1	0.1
52	Mitchell Evans thin prior (12 touches)	TE	CAR	vs CHI	1.5	-3.4	1.5	1.1	10.5	0.1
53	Adam Trautman thin prior (25 touches)	TE	DEN	@ KC	1.5	-3.4	1.5	1.1	10.5	0.1
54	Brock Wright thin prior (19 touches)	TE	DET	vs NO	1.5	-3.4	1.4	1.0	9.9	0.1
55	Kenyon Sadiq thin prior (0 touches)	TE	NYJ	@ TEN	1.5	-3.5	1.6	1.0	10.4	0.1
56	Johnny Mundt thin prior (22 touches)	TE	PHI	vs WAS	1.4	-3.5	1.4	1.0	10.0	0.1
57	Jake Tonges thin prior (23 touches)	TE	SF	@ LA	1.4	-3.5	1.4	1.0	9.4	0.1
58	Will Kacmarek thin prior (0 touches)	TE	MIA	@ LV	1.4	-3.5	1.6	1.0	9.8	0.1
59	Eric Saubert thin prior (8 touches)	TE	SEA	vs NE	1.4	-3.5	1.4	1.0	9.7	0.1
60	Jonnu Smith ⚠	TE	GB	@ MIN	1.4	-3.6	1.6	1.2	9.4	0.1
61	Charlie Woerner thin prior (9 touches)	TE	ATL	@ PIT	1.3	-3.6	1.4	1.0	9.1	0.1
62	Eli Raridon thin prior (0 touches)	TE	NE	@ SEA	1.2	-3.7	1.5	0.9	8.7	0.1
63	John Bates thin prior (18 touches)	TE	WAS	@ PHI	1.2	-3.7	1.4	1.0	8.8	0.1
64	Durham Smythe thin prior (17 touches)	TE	BAL	@ IND	1.2	-3.7	1.3	0.9	8.7	0.1
65	Oronde Gadsden II thin prior (34 touches)	TE	LAC	vs ARI	1.2	-3.7	1.1	0.8	8.8	0.1
66	Luke Schoonmaker thin prior (25 touches)	TE	DAL	@ NYG	0.9	-4.0	0.9	0.6	6.3	0.0
67	Jeremy Ruckert thin prior (27 touches)	TE	NYJ	@ TEN	0.8	-4.1	0.9	0.6	6.0	0.0
68	Terrance Ferguson thin prior (12 touches)	TE	LA	vs SF	0.8	-4.2	0.7	0.5	5.2	0.0
69	Erick All thin prior (7 touches)	TE	CIN	vs TB	0.7	-4.2	0.7	0.5	5.3	0.0
70	Andrew Ogletree thin prior (11 touches)	TE	IND	vs BAL	0.7	-4.2	0.7	0.5	4.9	0.0
71	Ko Kieft thin prior (1 touches)	TE	TB	@ CIN	0.7	-4.2	0.7	0.5	5.1	0.0
72	Quintin Morris thin prior (8 touches)	TE	JAX	vs CLE	0.7	-4.2	0.7	0.5	4.6	0.0
73	Darren Waller thin prior (32 touches)	TE	CAR	vs CHI	0.7	-4.3	0.6	0.5	4.4	0.0
74	Chris Myarick thin prior (0 touches)	TE	LV	vs MIA	0.7	-4.3	0.7	0.4	4.6	0.0
75	E.J. Jenkins thin prior (1 touches)	TE	PHI	vs WAS	0.6	-4.3	0.6	0.4	4.5	0.0
76	Carsen Ryan thin prior (0 touches)	TE	CLE	@ JAX	0.6	-4.3	0.7	0.4	4.4	0.0
77	Jake Briningstool thin prior (0 touches)	TE	KC	vs DEN	0.6	-4.3	0.7	0.4	4.3	0.0
78	Robert Tonyan thin prior (4 touches)	TE	PIT	vs ATL	0.6	-4.3	0.6	0.4	4.3	0.0
79	Kylen Granson thin prior (24 touches)	TE	TEN	vs NYJ	0.6	-4.3	0.6	0.4	4.4	0.0
80	Hunter Long thin prior (11 touches)	TE	ARI	@ LAC	0.6	-4.3	0.6	0.5	4.1	0.0
81	Nate Adkins thin prior (11 touches)	TE	DEN	@ KC	0.6	-4.3	0.6	0.4	4.0	0.0
82	Marlin Klein thin prior (0 touches)	TE	HOU	vs BUF	0.6	-4.3	0.7	0.4	4.3	0.0
83	Elijah Arroyo thin prior (13 touches)	TE	SEA	vs NE	0.6	-4.3	0.6	0.4	4.2	0.0
84	Sam Roush thin prior (0 touches)	TE	CHI	@ CAR	0.6	-4.3	0.6	0.4	4.2	0.0
85	Tyler Conklin thin prior (44 touches)	TE	DET	vs NO	0.6	-4.3	0.6	0.4	4.3	0.0
86	Gavin Bartholomew thin prior (0 touches)	TE	MIN	vs GB	0.6	-4.3	0.6	0.4	4.1	0.0
87	Jackson Hawes thin prior (10 touches)	TE	BUF	@ HOU	0.6	-4.3	0.6	0.4	3.9	0.0
88	Austin Hooper thin prior (37 touches)	TE	ATL	@ PIT	0.6	-4.4	0.6	0.4	4.0	0.0
89	Josh Whyle thin prior (17 touches)	TE	GB	@ MIN	0.6	-4.4	0.6	0.4	3.9	0.0
90	Treyton Welch thin prior (0 touches)	TE	NO	@ DET	0.6	-4.4	0.7	0.4	4.0	0.0
91	Seydou Traore thin prior (0 touches)	TE	MIA	@ LV	0.6	-4.4	0.6	0.4	3.9	0.0
92	Luke Farrell thin prior (15 touches)	TE	SF	@ LA	0.6	-4.4	0.6	0.4	3.8	0.0
93	Ben Sinnott thin prior (8 touches)	TE	WAS	@ PHI	0.5	-4.4	0.6	0.4	3.8	0.0
94	Tanner Arkin thin prior (0 touches)	TE	NE	@ SEA	0.5	-4.4	0.6	0.4	3.5	0.0
95	Matthew Hibner thin prior (0 touches)	TE	BAL	@ IND	0.5	-4.5	0.5	0.3	3.3	0.0
96	Tip Reiman thin prior (5 touches)	TE	ARI	@ LAC	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
97	Jameson Geers thin prior (0 touches)	TE	ARI	@ LAC	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
98	Nick Muse thin prior (0 touches)	TE	ATL	@ PIT	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
99	Josh Cuevas thin prior (0 touches)	TE	BAL	@ IND	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
100	Keleki Latu thin prior (2 touches)	TE	BUF	@ HOU	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
101	Feleipe Franks thin prior (1 touches)	TE	CAR	vs CHI	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
102	Nikola Kalinic thin prior (0 touches)	TE	CHI	@ CAR	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
103	Hayden Large thin prior (0 touches)	TE	CHI	@ CAR	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
104	Tanner Hudson thin prior (29 touches)	TE	CIN	vs TB	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
105	Joe Royer thin prior (0 touches)	TE	CLE	@ JAX	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
106	Princeton Fant thin prior (0 touches)	TE	DAL	@ NYG	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
107	DJ Rogers thin prior (0 touches)	TE	DAL	@ NYG	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
108	Caleb Lohner thin prior (0 touches)	TE	DEN	@ KC	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
109	Jackson Meeks thin prior (0 touches)	TE	DET	vs NO	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
110	Mark Redman thin prior (0 touches)	TE	GB	@ MIN	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
111	Luke Musgrave thin prior (28 touches)	TE	GB	@ MIN	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
112	Thomas Yassmin thin prior (0 touches)	TE	GB	@ MIN	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
113	Cade Stover thin prior (15 touches)	TE	HOU	vs BUF	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
114	Will Mallory thin prior (8 touches)	TE	IND	vs BAL	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
115	Carson Towt thin prior (0 touches)	TE	IND	vs BAL	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
116	John Michael Gyllenborg thin prior (0 touches)	TE	KC	vs DEN	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
117	Davis Allen thin prior (23 touches)	TE	LA	vs SF	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
118	Carter Runyon thin prior (0 touches)	TE	LV	vs MIA	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
119	Justin Joly thin prior (0 touches)	TE	MIA	@ LV	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
120	Cole Turner thin prior (3 touches)	TE	MIA	@ LV	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
121	Ben Yurosek thin prior (2 touches)	TE	MIN	vs GB	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
122	Cameron Latu thin prior (0 touches)	TE	NE	@ SEA	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
123	Julian Hill thin prior (18 touches)	TE	NE	@ SEA	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
124	Moliki Matavao thin prior (1 touches)	TE	NO	@ DET	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
125	Jelani Woods thin prior (2 touches)	TE	NYJ	@ TEN	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
126	Grant Calcaterra thin prior (16 touches)	TE	PHI	vs WAS	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
127	Nick Kallerup thin prior (0 touches)	TE	SEA	vs NE	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
128	Bauer Sharp thin prior (0 touches)	TE	TB	@ CIN	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
129	David Martin-Robinson thin prior (4 touches)	TE	TEN	vs NYJ	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
130	Jaren Kanak thin prior (0 touches)	TE	TEN	vs NYJ	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
131	Colson Yankoff thin prior (2 touches)	TE	WAS	@ PHI	0.0	-4.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

VORP = this player's points minus the points of the last startable player at his position (hover the VORP cell to see who). Baseline rank = teams × starters, with FLEX split RB/WR/TE 45/45/10.

Known limitations

Thin priors over-projected QBs. Efficiency comes from 2023–25, regressed toward the league average by sample size. Over Weeks 1–4, QB1s whose prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted dropbacks were projected +3.9 PPR a game too high (9 QBs; established QB1s +0.1). Those rows carry a thin prior chip. From Week 7 (model n8-v3) a QB's passing rates also read his own 2026 dropbacks, weighted against the prior's sample plus a fixed anchor, so a few snaps barely move them. On Weeks 5–6 this halved the thin-QB bias. Rushing rates and the game lines still use the prior: the game-level check of the same change failed.
Team pass volume is a 2023–25 prior too; in-season, only player shares blend toward what is observed. Blending team volume in-season was tested twice and lost to the prior both times.