NFL Player Projections
Week 3 — opponent-adjusted (this week's defence, home/away), availability-weighted, byes zeroed. Components (volume × efficiency) with scoring applied as a view. Model n8-v2 · updated 32d ago.
League & scoring settings — server-side, from your stored component projections; the URL is the saved config
110 players · ranked by VORP under ppr scoring, 12-team league (1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1FLEX). thin prior (n) = the efficiency prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted 2023–25 dropbacks (QB) or 55 touches (RB/WR/TE), so the league average carries about half or more of the line's efficiency; ⚠ = low-sample / rookie (archetype-driven). A designation like Q · 60% means the line is weighted by that play probability; BYE rows project 0 and are kept visible.
Replacement level (VORP is measured against these): QB12 Baker Mayfield · 17.7 pts · RB29 J.K. Dobbins · 10.1 pts · WR41 Kayshon Boutte · 9.4 pts · TE13 Cade Otton · 8.4 pts
| # | Player | Pos | Tm | Opp | Status | Pts | VORP | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | RecTD | Car | RuYd | RuTD | PaAtt | PaYd | PaTD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trey McBride | TE | ARI | @ SF | 15.1 | +6.8 | 8.7 | 6.5 | 62.7 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 2 | Isaiah Likely thin prior (43 touches) | TE | NYG | vs TEN | 12.0 | +3.6 | 6.1 | 4.4 | 52.8 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 3 | Dalton Schultz | TE | HOU | @ IND | 10.9 | +2.5 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 45.9 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 4 | Travis Kelce | TE | KC | @ MIA | 10.6 | +2.2 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 42.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 5 | Sam LaPorta | TE | DET | vs NYJ | 10.1 | +1.7 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 44.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 6 | George Kittle | TE | SF | vs ARI | 9.9 | +1.5 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 43.8 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 7 | Dalton Kincaid | TE | BUF | vs LAC | 9.3 | +1.0 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 40.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 8 | Jake Ferguson | TE | DAL | vs BAL | 8.9 | +0.6 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 34.8 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 9 | Mark Andrews | TE | BAL | @ DAL | 8.6 | +0.2 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 33.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 10 | Tucker Kraft thin prior (51 touches) | TE | GB | vs ATL | 8.5 | +0.2 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 38.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 11 | Tyler Warren | TE | IND | vs HOU | 8.5 | +0.1 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 35.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 12 | Michael Mayer thin prior (43 touches) | TE | LV | @ NO | 8.4 | +0.0 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 34.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 13 | Cade Otton | TE | TB | vs MIN | 8.4 | +0.0 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 34.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 14 | T.J. Hockenson | TE | MIN | @ TB | 8.2 | -0.1 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 34.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 15 | Juwan Johnson | TE | NO | vs LV | 8.1 | -0.2 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 36.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 16 | Hunter Henry | TE | NE | @ JAX | 8.0 | -0.3 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 32.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 17 | Pat Freiermuth | TE | PIT | vs CIN | 8.0 | -0.4 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 34.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 18 | Mike Gesicki thin prior (55 touches) | TE | CIN | @ PIT | 7.8 | -0.5 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 32.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 19 | Harold Fannin Jr. thin prior (54 touches) | TE | CLE | vs CAR | 7.8 | -0.6 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 32.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 20 | Brenton Strange thin prior (48 touches) | TE | JAX | vs NE | 7.3 | -1.0 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 32.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 21 | Terrance Ferguson thin prior (12 touches) | TE | LA | @ DEN | 7.3 | -1.1 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 29.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 22 | Kyle Pitts | TE | ATL | @ GB | 7.2 | -1.2 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 30.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 23 | Greg Dulcich thin prior (21 touches) | TE | MIA | vs KC | 6.6 | -1.8 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 28.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 24 | Kenyon Sadiq thin prior (0 touches) | TE | NYJ | @ DET | 6.6 | -1.8 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 26.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 25 | Gunnar Helm thin prior (28 touches) | TE | TEN | @ NYG | 6.6 | -1.8 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 26.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 26 | Tommy Tremble thin prior (34 touches) | TE | CAR | @ CLE | 6.5 | -1.9 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 25.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 27 | Oronde Gadsden II thin prior (34 touches) | TE | LAC | @ BUF | 6.5 | -1.9 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 27.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 28 | Colston Loveland thin prior (41 touches) | TE | CHI | vs PHI | 6.3 | -2.1 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 25.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 29 | Johnny Mundt thin prior (22 touches) | TE | PHI | @ CHI | 6.1 | -2.2 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 24.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 30 | Ben Sinnott thin prior (8 touches) | TE | WAS | vs SEA | 6.1 | -2.3 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 24.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 31 | AJ Barner thin prior (45 touches) | TE | SEA | @ WAS | 5.8 | -2.5 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 23.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 32 | Evan Engram | TE | DEN | vs LA | 5.7 | -2.7 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 22.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 33 | Cole Kmet | TE | CHI | vs PHI | 4.2 | -4.1 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 17.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 34 | Theo Johnson thin prior (50 touches) | TE | NYG | vs TEN | 4.0 | -4.4 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 17.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 35 | Josh Oliver thin prior (24 touches) | TE | MIN | @ TB | 3.9 | -4.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 15.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 36 | Brock Bowers | TE | LV | @ NO | Q · 45% | 3.7 | -4.6 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 15.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 37 | Noah Fant thin prior (48 touches) | TE | NO | vs LV | 3.7 | -4.7 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 15.9 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 38 | Adam Trautman thin prior (25 touches) | TE | DEN | vs LA | 3.4 | -5.0 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 14.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 39 | Drew Sample thin prior (22 touches) | TE | CIN | @ PIT | 3.2 | -5.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 12.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 40 | Hayden Rucci thin prior (0 touches) | TE | LAC | @ BUF | 3.0 | -5.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 12.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 41 | Dawson Knox thin prior (42 touches) | TE | BUF | vs LAC | 3.0 | -5.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 12.9 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 42 | Jonnu Smith ⚠ | TE | GB | vs ATL | 3.0 | -5.3 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 12.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 43 | Darren Waller thin prior (32 touches) | TE | CAR | @ CLE | 3.0 | -5.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 11.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 44 | Colby Parkinson thin prior (50 touches) | TE | LA | @ DEN | Q · 45% | 3.0 | -5.4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 11.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 45 | Foster Moreau thin prior (23 touches) | TE | HOU | @ IND | 3.0 | -5.4 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 12.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 46 | Darnell Washington thin prior (31 touches) | TE | PIT | vs CIN | 2.9 | -5.4 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 13.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 47 | John Bates thin prior (18 touches) | TE | WAS | vs SEA | 2.9 | -5.5 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 11.9 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 48 | Blake Whiteheart thin prior (6 touches) | TE | CLE | vs CAR | 2.9 | -5.5 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 12.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 49 | Brevyn Spann-Ford thin prior (11 touches) | TE | DAL | vs BAL | 2.8 | -5.6 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 11.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 50 | Noah Gray thin prior (41 touches) | TE | KC | @ MIA | 2.7 | -5.6 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 11.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 51 | Jeremy Ruckert thin prior (27 touches) | TE | NYJ | @ DET | 2.7 | -5.7 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 10.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 52 | Payne Durham thin prior (8 touches) | TE | TB | vs MIN | 2.6 | -5.7 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 10.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 53 | Nate Boerkircher thin prior (0 touches) | TE | JAX | vs NE | 2.6 | -5.8 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 11.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 54 | Mo Alie-Cox thin prior (21 touches) | TE | IND | vs HOU | 2.6 | -5.8 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 10.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 55 | Daniel Bellinger thin prior (24 touches) | TE | TEN | @ NYG | 2.5 | -5.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 10.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 56 | E.J. Jenkins thin prior (1 touches) | TE | PHI | @ CHI | 2.4 | -5.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 9.9 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 57 | Luke Farrell thin prior (15 touches) | TE | SF | vs ARI | 2.4 | -5.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 10.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 58 | Davis Allen thin prior (23 touches) | TE | LA | @ DEN | 2.4 | -6.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 9.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 59 | Elijah Higgins thin prior (30 touches) | TE | ARI | @ SF | 2.2 | -6.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 9.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 60 | Will Kacmarek thin prior (0 touches) | TE | MIA | vs KC | 2.2 | -6.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 9.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 61 | Charlie Woerner thin prior (9 touches) | TE | ATL | @ GB | 2.2 | -6.2 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 8.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 62 | Austin Hooper thin prior (37 touches) | TE | ATL | @ GB | 2.2 | -6.2 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 8.9 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 63 | Cameron Latu thin prior (0 touches) | TE | NE | @ JAX | 2.1 | -6.3 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 8.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 64 | Brock Wright thin prior (19 touches) | TE | DET | vs NYJ | 2.0 | -6.3 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 8.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 65 | Erick All thin prior (7 touches) | TE | CIN | @ PIT | 2.0 | -6.3 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 8.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 66 | Ian Thomas thin prior (10 touches) | TE | LV | @ NO | 1.9 | -6.4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 7.9 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 67 | Eric Saubert thin prior (8 touches) | TE | SEA | @ WAS | 1.9 | -6.4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 7.9 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 68 | Durham Smythe thin prior (17 touches) | TE | BAL | @ DAL | 1.9 | -6.4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 7.9 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 69 | Nate Adkins thin prior (11 touches) | TE | DEN | vs LA | 1.7 | -6.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 6.9 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 70 | Sam Roush thin prior (0 touches) | TE | CHI | vs PHI | 1.7 | -6.7 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 71 | Luke Schoonmaker thin prior (25 touches) | TE | DAL | vs BAL | 1.7 | -6.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 7.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 72 | Quintin Morris thin prior (8 touches) | TE | JAX | vs NE | 1.6 | -6.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 6.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 73 | Mitchell Evans thin prior (12 touches) | TE | CAR | @ CLE | 1.5 | -6.9 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 74 | Andrew Ogletree thin prior (11 touches) | TE | IND | vs HOU | 1.4 | -7.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 5.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 75 | Jake Briningstool thin prior (0 touches) | TE | KC | @ MIA | 1.2 | -7.1 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 5.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 76 | Elijah Arroyo thin prior (13 touches) | TE | SEA | @ WAS | 1.2 | -7.2 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 77 | Tyler Higbee thin prior (36 touches) | TE | LA | @ DEN | 1.2 | -7.2 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 78 | Marlin Klein thin prior (0 touches) | TE | HOU | @ IND | 1.1 | -7.2 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 4.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 79 | Ko Kieft thin prior (1 touches) | TE | TB | vs MIN | 1.1 | -7.2 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 80 | Jelani Woods thin prior (2 touches) | TE | NYJ | @ DET | 1.1 | -7.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 4.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 81 | Oscar Delp thin prior (0 touches) | TE | NO | vs LV | 1.1 | -7.3 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 4.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 82 | Patrick Herbert thin prior (0 touches) | TE | LAC | @ BUF | 1.1 | -7.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 4.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 83 | Jackson Hawes thin prior (10 touches) | TE | BUF | vs LAC | 1.1 | -7.3 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 4.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 84 | Robert Tonyan thin prior (4 touches) | TE | PIT | vs CIN | 1.0 | -7.3 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 4.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 85 | Mark Redman thin prior (0 touches) | TE | GB | vs ATL | 1.0 | -7.3 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 4.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 86 | Jackson Meeks thin prior (0 touches) | TE | DET | vs NYJ | 1.0 | -7.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 4.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 87 | Seydou Traore thin prior (0 touches) | TE | MIA | vs KC | 1.0 | -7.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 88 | Matthew Hibner thin prior (0 touches) | TE | BAL | @ DAL | 0.9 | -7.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 3.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 89 | Colson Yankoff thin prior (2 touches) | TE | WAS | vs SEA | 0.9 | -7.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 3.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 90 | David Martin-Robinson thin prior (4 touches) | TE | TEN | @ NYG | 0.9 | -7.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 3.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 91 | Tanner Arkin thin prior (0 touches) | TE | NE | @ JAX | 0.9 | -7.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 3.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 92 | Gavin Bartholomew thin prior (0 touches) | TE | MIN | @ TB | 0.9 | -7.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 3.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 93 | Brayden Willis thin prior (1 touches) | TE | SF | vs ARI | 0.8 | -7.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 3.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 94 | Carsen Ryan thin prior (0 touches) | TE | CLE | vs CAR | 0.8 | -7.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 95 | Hunter Long thin prior (11 touches) | TE | ARI | @ SF | 0.7 | -7.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 2.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 96 | Tanner Hudson thin prior (29 touches) | TE | CIN | @ PIT | 0.3 | -8.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 97 | Cade Stover thin prior (15 touches) | TE | HOU | @ IND | 0.3 | -8.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 98 | Nick Muse thin prior (0 touches) | TE | ATL | @ GB | 0.0 | -8.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 99 | Josh Cuevas thin prior (0 touches) | TE | BAL | @ DAL | 0.0 | -8.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 100 | Keleki Latu thin prior (2 touches) | TE | BUF | vs LAC | 0.0 | -8.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 101 | Feleipe Franks thin prior (1 touches) | TE | CAR | @ CLE | 0.0 | -8.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 102 | Dallen Bentley thin prior (0 touches) | TE | DEN | vs LA | 0.0 | -8.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 103 | Josh Whyle thin prior (17 touches) | TE | GB | vs ATL | 0.0 | -8.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 104 | Tanner Koziol thin prior (0 touches) | TE | JAX | vs NE | 0.0 | -8.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 105 | Jared Wiley thin prior (1 touches) | TE | KC | @ MIA | 0.0 | -8.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 106 | Max Klare thin prior (0 touches) | TE | LA | @ DEN | 0.0 | -8.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 107 | Justin Joly thin prior (0 touches) | TE | MIA | vs KC | 0.0 | -8.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 108 | Andrew Beck ⚠ | TE | NYJ | @ DET | 0.0 | -8.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 109 | Nick Kallerup thin prior (0 touches) | TE | SEA | @ WAS | 0.0 | -8.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 110 | Bauer Sharp thin prior (0 touches) | TE | TB | vs MIN | 0.0 | -8.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
VORP = this player's points minus the points of the last startable player at his position (hover the VORP cell to see who). Baseline rank = teams × starters, with FLEX split RB/WR/TE 45/45/10.
Known limitations
- Thin priors over-projected QBs. Efficiency comes from 2023–25, regressed toward the league average by sample size. Over Weeks 1–4, QB1s whose prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted dropbacks were projected +3.9 PPR a game too high (9 QBs; established QB1s +0.1). Those rows carry a thin prior chip. From Week 7 (model n8-v3) a QB's passing rates also read his own 2026 dropbacks, weighted against the prior's sample plus a fixed anchor, so a few snaps barely move them. On Weeks 5–6 this halved the thin-QB bias. Rushing rates and the game lines still use the prior: the game-level check of the same change failed.
- Team pass volume is a 2023–25 prior too; in-season, only player shares blend toward what is observed. Blending team volume in-season was tested twice and lost to the prior both times.