NFL Player Projections

Week 7 — opponent-adjusted (this week's defence, home/away), availability-weighted, byes zeroed. Components (volume × efficiency) with scoring applied as a view. Model n8-v3 · updated 4d ago.

Week: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8• Season Position: All QB RB WR TE

Scoring: PPR Half Standard DK Rank by: VORP Points ⬇ CSV

League & scoring settings — server-side, from your stored component projections; the URL is the saved config

112 players · ranked by VORP under half_ppr scoring, 12-team league (1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1FLEX). thin prior (n) = the efficiency prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted 2023–25 dropbacks (QB) or 55 touches (RB/WR/TE), so the league average carries about half or more of the line's efficiency; ⚠ = low-sample / rookie (archetype-driven). A designation like Q · 60% means the line is weighted by that play probability; BYE rows project 0 and are kept visible.

Replacement level (VORP is measured against these): QB12 Patrick Mahomes · 16.8 pts · RB29 RJ Harvey · 8.2 pts · WR41 Kendrick Bourne · 7.4 pts · TE13 Kyle Pitts · 6.7 pts

#	Player	Pos	Tm	Opp	Status	Pts	VORP	Tgt	Rec	RecYd	RecTD
1	Trey McBride	TE	ARI	vs DEN		11.8	+5.1	8.4	6.3	62.4	0.4
2	Isaiah Likely thin prior (43 touches)	TE	NYG	@ HOU		9.3	+2.6	6.7	4.9	48.1	0.3
3	Brock Bowers	TE	LV	vs LA		9.3	+2.6	6.5	4.8	48.8	0.3
4	George Kittle	TE	SF	@ ATL		9.0	+2.3	5.7	4.4	48.0	0.3
5	Dallas Goedert	TE	PHI	vs DAL		8.6	+1.9	5.5	4.1	43.3	0.4
6	Sam LaPorta	TE	DET	vs GB		8.5	+1.8	5.4	4.0	45.3	0.3
7	Travis Kelce	TE	KC	@ SEA		7.6	+0.9	6.5	4.7	38.6	0.2
8	Cade Otton	TE	TB	@ CAR		7.3	+0.6	5.5	3.9	39.3	0.2
9	Dalton Schultz	TE	HOU	vs NYG		7.2	+0.5	5.2	3.7	39.1	0.2
10	Mark Andrews	TE	BAL	vs CIN		7.1	+0.4	4.5	3.2	35.5	0.3
11	Juwan Johnson	TE	NO	vs PIT		7.1	+0.4	4.9	3.6	39.4	0.2
12	T.J. Hockenson	TE	MIN	vs IND		7.1	+0.4	5.0	3.7	38.3	0.2
13	Kyle Pitts	TE	ATL	vs SF		6.7	+0.0	4.7	3.3	36.9	0.2
14	Colston Loveland thin prior (41 touches)	TE	CHI	vs NE		6.5	-0.2	4.5	3.2	34.1	0.2
15	Tucker Kraft thin prior (51 touches)	TE	GB	@ DET		6.5	-0.2	4.1	3.0	34.1	0.3
16	Harold Fannin Jr. thin prior (54 touches)	TE	CLE	@ TEN		6.4	-0.3	4.9	3.4	32.5	0.2
17	Hunter Henry	TE	NE	@ CHI		6.0	-0.7	4.5	3.1	30.9	0.2
18	Tyler Higbee thin prior (36 touches)	TE	LA	@ LV		5.9	-0.8	4.4	3.1	29.6	0.2
19	Greg Dulcich thin prior (21 touches)	TE	MIA	@ NYJ		5.8	-0.9	4.1	2.9	31.9	0.2
20	Will Mallory thin prior (8 touches)	TE	IND	@ MIN		5.5	-1.2	4.4	3.1	28.4	0.2
21	AJ Barner thin prior (45 touches)	TE	SEA	vs KC		5.5	-1.2	3.7	2.8	27.1	0.2
22	Jake Ferguson	TE	DAL	@ PHI		5.4	-1.3	4.3	3.2	25.9	0.2
23	Mike Gesicki thin prior (55 touches)	TE	CIN	@ BAL		5.1	-1.6	4.0	2.8	26.7	0.2
24	Tommy Tremble thin prior (34 touches)	TE	CAR	vs TB		5.1	-1.6	3.5	2.5	26.1	0.2
25	Pat Freiermuth	TE	PIT	@ NO		4.9	-1.8	3.4	2.5	25.0	0.2
26	Mason Taylor thin prior (32 touches)	TE	NYJ	vs MIA		4.7	-2.0	3.7	2.6	24.6	0.2
27	Michael Mayer thin prior (43 touches)	TE	LV	vs LA		4.6	-2.1	3.6	2.5	24.6	0.2
28	Darnell Washington thin prior (31 touches)	TE	PIT	@ NO		4.5	-2.2	3.4	2.4	24.2	0.1
29	Gunnar Helm thin prior (28 touches)	TE	TEN	vs CLE		4.4	-2.3	3.3	2.5	22.0	0.2
30	Evan Engram	TE	DEN	@ ARI		4.3	-2.4	3.6	2.6	22.4	0.1
31	Kenyon Sadiq thin prior (0 touches)	TE	NYJ	vs MIA		3.7	-3.0	2.8	1.8	19.6	0.1
32	Darren Waller thin prior (32 touches)	TE	CAR	vs TB		3.5	-3.1	2.6	1.8	17.8	0.1
33	Colby Parkinson thin prior (50 touches)	TE	LA	@ LV		3.1	-3.6	2.2	1.5	15.0	0.1
34	Noah Gray thin prior (41 touches)	TE	KC	@ SEA		3.1	-3.6	2.4	1.7	15.6	0.1
35	Noah Fant thin prior (48 touches)	TE	NO	vs PIT		3.1	-3.6	2.1	1.6	16.5	0.1
36	Foster Moreau thin prior (23 touches)	TE	HOU	vs NYG		2.8	-3.9	1.8	1.3	14.7	0.1
37	Cole Kmet	TE	CHI	vs NE		2.7	-4.0	1.8	1.3	14.4	0.1
38	Gavin Bartholomew thin prior (0 touches)	TE	MIN	vs IND		2.6	-4.1	1.9	1.3	13.7	0.1
39	Eli Raridon thin prior (0 touches)	TE	NE	@ CHI		2.5	-4.2	2.1	1.3	12.9	0.1
40	Elijah Higgins thin prior (30 touches)	TE	ARI	vs DEN		2.5	-4.2	1.8	1.3	13.2	0.1
41	Daniel Bellinger thin prior (24 touches)	TE	TEN	vs CLE		2.4	-4.3	1.7	1.2	12.7	0.1
42	Adam Trautman thin prior (25 touches)	TE	DEN	@ ARI		2.3	-4.4	1.6	1.2	12.2	0.1
43	Drew Sample thin prior (22 touches)	TE	CIN	@ BAL		2.3	-4.4	1.8	1.3	11.3	0.1
44	Payne Durham thin prior (8 touches)	TE	TB	@ CAR		2.2	-4.5	1.6	1.1	11.5	0.1
45	Austin Hooper thin prior (37 touches)	TE	ATL	vs SF		2.1	-4.6	1.5	1.1	11.1	0.1
46	Brevyn Spann-Ford thin prior (11 touches)	TE	DAL	@ PHI		2.1	-4.6	1.6	1.2	10.6	0.1
47	Erick All thin prior (7 touches)	TE	CIN	@ BAL		2.0	-4.7	1.5	1.1	10.6	0.1
48	Charlie Woerner thin prior (9 touches)	TE	ATL	vs SF		2.0	-4.7	1.4	1.1	10.5	0.1
49	Jeremy Ruckert thin prior (27 touches)	TE	NYJ	vs MIA		1.9	-4.8	1.4	1.0	10.1	0.1
50	Johnny Mundt thin prior (22 touches)	TE	PHI	vs DAL		1.9	-4.8	1.4	1.0	9.9	0.1
51	Matthew Hibner thin prior (0 touches)	TE	BAL	vs CIN		1.9	-4.8	1.4	0.9	10.0	0.1
52	Jonnu Smith ⚠	TE	GB	@ DET		1.9	-4.8	1.4	1.1	9.2	0.1
53	Blake Whiteheart thin prior (6 touches)	TE	CLE	@ TEN		1.8	-4.9	1.3	0.9	9.2	0.1
54	Will Kacmarek thin prior (0 touches)	TE	MIA	@ NYJ		1.7	-5.0	1.4	0.9	9.1	0.1
55	Brock Wright thin prior (19 touches)	TE	DET	vs GB		1.7	-5.0	1.2	0.9	8.5	0.1
56	Nate Adkins thin prior (11 touches)	TE	DEN	@ ARI		1.6	-5.1	1.1	0.8	7.9	0.1
57	Sam Roush thin prior (0 touches)	TE	CHI	vs NE		1.6	-5.1	1.2	0.8	8.3	0.1
58	Mo Alie-Cox thin prior (21 touches)	TE	IND	@ MIN		1.5	-5.2	1.3	0.9	7.6	0.1
59	Josh Cuevas thin prior (0 touches)	TE	BAL	vs CIN		1.5	-5.2	1.1	0.7	7.9	0.1
60	Davis Allen thin prior (23 touches)	TE	LA	@ LV		1.5	-5.2	1.1	0.8	7.3	0.1
61	Mitchell Evans thin prior (12 touches)	TE	CAR	vs TB		1.4	-5.3	1.0	0.7	7.0	0.1
62	Luke Farrell thin prior (15 touches)	TE	SF	@ ATL		1.3	-5.4	1.0	0.7	6.8	0.1
63	Eric Saubert thin prior (8 touches)	TE	SEA	vs KC		1.2	-5.5	0.9	0.7	6.2	0.0
64	Luke Schoonmaker thin prior (25 touches)	TE	DAL	@ PHI		1.1	-5.6	0.9	0.6	5.7	0.0
65	Teagan Quitoriano thin prior (1 touches)	TE	ARI	vs DEN		1.1	-5.6	0.8	0.6	5.8	0.0
66	Ian Thomas thin prior (10 touches)	TE	LV	vs LA		1.1	-5.6	0.8	0.6	5.6	0.0
67	Mark Redman thin prior (0 touches)	TE	GB	@ DET		0.9	-5.8	0.8	0.5	4.8	0.0
68	Jake Briningstool thin prior (0 touches)	TE	KC	@ SEA		0.9	-5.8	0.8	0.5	4.8	0.0
69	Ben Yurosek thin prior (2 touches)	TE	MIN	vs IND		0.9	-5.8	0.6	0.4	4.6	0.0
70	Oscar Delp thin prior (0 touches)	TE	NO	vs PIT		0.9	-5.8	0.7	0.4	4.6	0.0
71	Robert Tonyan thin prior (4 touches)	TE	PIT	@ NO		0.8	-5.8	0.7	0.5	4.3	0.0
72	Andrew Ogletree thin prior (11 touches)	TE	IND	@ MIN		0.8	-5.9	0.7	0.5	4.2	0.0
73	Tyler Conklin thin prior (44 touches)	TE	DET	vs GB		0.8	-5.9	0.6	0.4	4.4	0.0
74	David Martin-Robinson thin prior (4 touches)	TE	TEN	vs CLE		0.8	-5.9	0.6	0.4	4.1	0.0
75	Nick Kallerup thin prior (0 touches)	TE	SEA	vs KC		0.8	-5.9	0.6	0.4	4.2	0.0
76	Cade Stover thin prior (15 touches)	TE	HOU	vs NYG		0.8	-5.9	0.5	0.4	4.0	0.0
77	Jelani Woods thin prior (2 touches)	TE	NYJ	vs MIA		0.7	-6.0	0.5	0.3	3.7	0.0
78	Ko Kieft thin prior (1 touches)	TE	TB	@ CAR		0.7	-6.0	0.5	0.4	3.6	0.0
79	Thomas Fidone II thin prior (0 touches)	TE	NYG	@ HOU		0.6	-6.1	0.5	0.3	3.0	0.0
80	Seydou Traore thin prior (0 touches)	TE	MIA	@ NYJ		0.6	-6.1	0.5	0.3	3.1	0.0
81	Carsen Ryan thin prior (0 touches)	TE	CLE	@ TEN		0.5	-6.2	0.4	0.3	2.7	0.0
82	Brevin Jordan thin prior (5 touches)	TE	HOU	vs NYG		0.4	-6.3	0.3	0.2	2.2	0.0
83	Cameron Latu thin prior (0 touches)	TE	NE	@ CHI		0.4	-6.3	0.3	0.2	2.0	0.0
84	Brayden Willis thin prior (1 touches)	TE	SF	@ ATL		0.4	-6.3	0.3	0.2	2.0	0.0
85	Kylen Granson thin prior (24 touches)	TE	TEN	vs CLE		0.2	-6.5	0.2	0.1	1.2	0.0
86	Pharaoh Brown thin prior (8 touches)	TE	IND	@ MIN		0.2	-6.5	0.2	0.1	1.0	0.0
87	Bauer Sharp thin prior (0 touches)	TE	TB	@ CAR		0.2	-6.5	0.1	0.1	0.8	0.0
88	Nick Muse thin prior (0 touches)	TE	ATL	vs SF		0.0	-6.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
89	Nick Vannett thin prior (6 touches)	TE	BAL	vs CIN		0.0	-6.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
90	Dalton Kincaid	TE	BUF	BYE	BYE	0.0	-6.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
91	Dawson Knox thin prior (42 touches)	TE	BUF	BYE	BYE	0.0	-6.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
92	Jackson Hawes thin prior (10 touches)	TE	BUF	BYE	BYE	0.0	-6.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
93	Keleki Latu thin prior (2 touches)	TE	BUF	BYE	BYE	0.0	-6.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
94	Feleipe Franks thin prior (1 touches)	TE	CAR	vs TB		0.0	-6.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
95	Jack Endries thin prior (0 touches)	TE	CIN	@ BAL		0.0	-6.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
96	Josh Whyle thin prior (17 touches)	TE	GB	@ DET		0.0	-6.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
97	Brenton Strange thin prior (48 touches)	TE	JAX	BYE	BYE	0.0	-6.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
98	Nate Boerkircher thin prior (0 touches)	TE	JAX	BYE	BYE	0.0	-6.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
99	Tanner Koziol thin prior (0 touches)	TE	JAX	BYE	BYE	0.0	-6.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
100	Quintin Morris thin prior (8 touches)	TE	JAX	BYE	BYE	0.0	-6.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
101	Jared Wiley thin prior (1 touches)	TE	KC	@ SEA		0.0	-6.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
102	Charlie Kolar thin prior (13 touches)	TE	LAC	BYE	BYE	0.0	-6.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
103	Oronde Gadsden II thin prior (34 touches)	TE	LAC	BYE	BYE	0.0	-6.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
104	Hayden Rucci thin prior (0 touches)	TE	LAC	BYE	BYE	0.0	-6.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
105	David Njoku	TE	LAC	BYE	BYE	0.0	-6.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
106	Justin Joly thin prior (0 touches)	TE	MIA	@ NYJ		0.0	-6.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
107	Tanner Arkin thin prior (0 touches)	TE	NE	@ CHI		0.0	-6.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
108	Andrew Beck ⚠	TE	NYJ	vs MIA		0.0	-6.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
109	Chig Okonkwo ⚠	TE	WAS	BYE	BYE	0.0	-6.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
110	Ben Sinnott thin prior (8 touches)	TE	WAS	BYE	BYE	0.0	-6.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
111	John Bates thin prior (18 touches)	TE	WAS	BYE	BYE	0.0	-6.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
112	Colson Yankoff thin prior (2 touches)	TE	WAS	BYE	BYE	0.0	-6.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

VORP = this player's points minus the points of the last startable player at his position (hover the VORP cell to see who). Baseline rank = teams × starters, with FLEX split RB/WR/TE 45/45/10.

Known limitations

Thin priors over-projected QBs. Efficiency comes from 2023–25, regressed toward the league average by sample size. Over Weeks 1–4, QB1s whose prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted dropbacks were projected +3.9 PPR a game too high (9 QBs; established QB1s +0.1). Those rows carry a thin prior chip. From Week 7 (model n8-v3) a QB's passing rates also read his own 2026 dropbacks, weighted against the prior's sample plus a fixed anchor, so a few snaps barely move them. On Weeks 5–6 this halved the thin-QB bias. Rushing rates and the game lines still use the prior: the game-level check of the same change failed.
Team pass volume is a 2023–25 prior too; in-season, only player shares blend toward what is observed. Blending team volume in-season was tested twice and lost to the prior both times.