NFL Player Projections
Week 6 — opponent-adjusted (this week's defence, home/away), availability-weighted, byes zeroed. Components (volume × efficiency) with scoring applied as a view. Model n8-v2 · updated 11d ago.
League & scoring settings — server-side, from your stored component projections; the URL is the saved config
116 players · ranked by VORP under half_ppr scoring, 12-team league (1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1FLEX). thin prior (n) = the efficiency prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted 2023–25 dropbacks (QB) or 55 touches (RB/WR/TE), so the league average carries about half or more of the line's efficiency; ⚠ = low-sample / rookie (archetype-driven). A designation like Q · 60% means the line is weighted by that play probability; BYE rows project 0 and are kept visible.
Replacement level (VORP is measured against these): QB12 C.J. Stroud · 16.9 pts · RB29 RJ Harvey · 8.1 pts · WR41 Wan'Dale Robinson · 7.0 pts · TE13 Mark Andrews · 6.6 pts
| # | Player | Pos | Tm | Opp | Status | Pts | VORP | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | RecTD | Car | RuYd | RuTD | PaAtt | PaYd | PaTD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trey McBride | TE | ARI | @ LA | 11.3 | +4.7 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 59.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 2 | Isaiah Likely thin prior (43 touches) | TE | NYG | vs NO | 10.2 | +3.6 | 6.8 | 4.9 | 54.4 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 3 | George Kittle | TE | SF | vs WAS | 9.6 | +3.0 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 52.8 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 4 | Brock Bowers | TE | LV | vs BUF | 9.2 | +2.6 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 48.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 5 | Travis Kelce | TE | KC | vs LAC | 8.1 | +1.5 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 42.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 6 | Brenton Strange thin prior (48 touches) | TE | JAX | vs HOU | 7.5 | +0.9 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 40.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 7 | Tucker Kraft thin prior (51 touches) | TE | GB | vs DAL | 7.3 | +0.7 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 39.9 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 8 | Cade Otton | TE | TB | vs PIT | 7.3 | +0.6 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 39.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 9 | Juwan Johnson | TE | NO | @ NYG | 7.2 | +0.6 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 39.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 10 | Harold Fannin Jr. thin prior (54 touches) | TE | CLE | vs BAL | 7.0 | +0.4 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 35.6 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 11 | Dalton Kincaid | TE | BUF | @ LV | 6.8 | +0.2 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 36.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 12 | Dalton Schultz | TE | HOU | @ JAX | 6.7 | +0.0 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 35.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 13 | Mark Andrews | TE | BAL | @ CLE | 6.6 | +0.0 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 31.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 14 | Dallas Goedert | TE | PHI | vs CAR | 6.4 | -0.2 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 32.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 15 | Jake Ferguson | TE | DAL | @ GB | 6.1 | -0.6 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 29.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 16 | Kyle Pitts | TE | ATL | vs CHI | 6.0 | -0.6 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 33.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 17 | Charlie Kolar thin prior (13 touches) | TE | LAC | @ KC | 5.8 | -0.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 30.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 18 | Hunter Henry | TE | NE | vs NYJ | 5.8 | -0.8 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 31.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 19 | Colston Loveland thin prior (41 touches) | TE | CHI | @ ATL | 5.8 | -0.8 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 30.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 20 | AJ Barner thin prior (45 touches) | TE | SEA | @ DEN | 5.5 | -1.1 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 26.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 21 | Chig Okonkwo ⚠ | TE | WAS | @ SF | 5.1 | -1.5 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 27.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 22 | Mo Alie-Cox thin prior (21 touches) | TE | IND | vs TEN | 4.8 | -1.9 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 24.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 23 | Tommy Tremble thin prior (34 touches) | TE | CAR | @ PHI | 4.6 | -2.0 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 22.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 24 | Darnell Washington thin prior (31 touches) | TE | PIT | @ TB | 4.5 | -2.1 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 24.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 25 | Evan Engram | TE | DEN | vs SEA | 4.3 | -2.3 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 22.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 26 | Tyler Higbee thin prior (36 touches) | TE | LA | vs ARI | 4.2 | -2.4 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 21.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 27 | Colby Parkinson thin prior (50 touches) | TE | LA | vs ARI | 4.1 | -2.5 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 20.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 28 | Michael Mayer thin prior (43 touches) | TE | LV | vs BUF | 4.1 | -2.5 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 22.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 29 | Gunnar Helm thin prior (28 touches) | TE | TEN | @ IND | 4.1 | -2.6 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 20.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 30 | Kenyon Sadiq thin prior (0 touches) | TE | NYJ | @ NE | Q · 74% | 3.9 | -2.7 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 20.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 31 | Oronde Gadsden II thin prior (34 touches) | TE | LAC | @ KC | 3.8 | -2.9 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 20.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 32 | Pat Freiermuth | TE | PIT | @ TB | Q · 66% | 3.5 | -3.1 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 18.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 33 | Darren Waller thin prior (32 touches) | TE | CAR | @ PHI | 3.3 | -3.3 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 16.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 34 | Mason Taylor thin prior (32 touches) | TE | NYJ | @ NE | 3.3 | -3.3 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 16.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 35 | Noah Fant thin prior (48 touches) | TE | NO | @ NYG | 3.1 | -3.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 16.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 36 | Noah Gray thin prior (41 touches) | TE | KC | vs LAC | 3.0 | -3.6 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 15.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 37 | Cole Kmet | TE | CHI | @ ATL | 2.9 | -3.7 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 15.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 38 | Dawson Knox thin prior (42 touches) | TE | BUF | @ LV | 2.9 | -3.7 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 15.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 39 | Foster Moreau thin prior (23 touches) | TE | HOU | @ JAX | 2.6 | -4.1 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 13.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 40 | Jeremy Ruckert thin prior (27 touches) | TE | NYJ | @ NE | 2.5 | -4.1 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 12.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 41 | Robert Tonyan thin prior (4 touches) | TE | PIT | @ TB | 2.4 | -4.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 12.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 42 | Eli Raridon thin prior (0 touches) | TE | NE | vs NYJ | 2.3 | -4.3 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 12.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 43 | Adam Trautman thin prior (25 touches) | TE | DEN | vs SEA | 2.3 | -4.3 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 12.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 44 | Austin Hooper thin prior (37 touches) | TE | ATL | vs CHI | 2.2 | -4.4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 11.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 45 | Elijah Higgins thin prior (30 touches) | TE | ARI | @ LA | 2.2 | -4.4 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 11.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 46 | Jonnu Smith ⚠ | TE | GB | vs DAL | 2.2 | -4.5 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 11.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 47 | Nate Boerkircher thin prior (0 touches) | TE | JAX | vs HOU | 2.1 | -4.6 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 10.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 48 | Daniel Bellinger thin prior (24 touches) | TE | TEN | @ IND | 2.1 | -4.6 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 11.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 49 | Payne Durham thin prior (8 touches) | TE | TB | vs PIT | 2.0 | -4.7 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 10.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 50 | Charlie Woerner thin prior (9 touches) | TE | ATL | vs CHI | 1.9 | -4.7 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 10.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 51 | Blake Whiteheart thin prior (6 touches) | TE | CLE | vs BAL | 1.9 | -4.7 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 52 | Brevyn Spann-Ford thin prior (11 touches) | TE | DAL | @ GB | 1.8 | -4.8 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 9.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 53 | Andrew Ogletree thin prior (11 touches) | TE | IND | vs TEN | 1.8 | -4.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 9.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 54 | Luke Farrell thin prior (15 touches) | TE | SF | vs WAS | 1.7 | -5.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 8.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 55 | Davis Allen thin prior (23 touches) | TE | LA | vs ARI | 1.6 | -5.1 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 8.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 56 | Nate Adkins thin prior (11 touches) | TE | DEN | vs SEA | 1.6 | -5.1 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 7.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 57 | Johnny Mundt thin prior (22 touches) | TE | PHI | vs CAR | 1.5 | -5.1 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 8.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 58 | Ben Sinnott thin prior (8 touches) | TE | WAS | @ SF | 1.4 | -5.3 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 7.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 59 | John Bates thin prior (18 touches) | TE | WAS | @ SF | 1.4 | -5.3 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 60 | Mitchell Evans thin prior (12 touches) | TE | CAR | @ PHI | 1.3 | -5.4 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 6.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 61 | Josh Cuevas thin prior (0 touches) | TE | BAL | @ CLE | 1.3 | -5.4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 6.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 62 | Eric Saubert thin prior (8 touches) | TE | SEA | @ DEN | 1.2 | -5.4 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 63 | Luke Schoonmaker thin prior (25 touches) | TE | DAL | @ GB | 1.2 | -5.5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 6.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 64 | Mark Redman thin prior (0 touches) | TE | GB | vs DAL | 1.1 | -5.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 5.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 65 | Sam Roush thin prior (0 touches) | TE | CHI | @ ATL | 1.1 | -5.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 5.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 66 | Ian Thomas thin prior (10 touches) | TE | LV | vs BUF | 1.1 | -5.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 5.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 67 | Teagan Quitoriano thin prior (1 touches) | TE | ARI | @ LA | 1.1 | -5.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 68 | Will Mallory thin prior (8 touches) | TE | IND | vs TEN | 1.0 | -5.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 69 | Jake Briningstool thin prior (0 touches) | TE | KC | vs LAC | 1.0 | -5.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 5.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 70 | Jackson Hawes thin prior (10 touches) | TE | BUF | @ LV | 1.0 | -5.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 4.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 71 | Elijah Arroyo thin prior (13 touches) | TE | SEA | @ DEN | 0.9 | -5.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 4.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 72 | Quintin Morris thin prior (8 touches) | TE | JAX | vs HOU | 0.8 | -5.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 4.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 73 | Hayden Rucci thin prior (0 touches) | TE | LAC | @ KC | 0.8 | -5.8 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 4.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 74 | Thomas Fidone II thin prior (0 touches) | TE | NYG | vs NO | 0.8 | -5.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 4.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 75 | Cade Stover thin prior (15 touches) | TE | HOU | @ JAX | 0.8 | -5.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 4.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 76 | Jelani Woods thin prior (2 touches) | TE | NYJ | @ NE | 0.8 | -5.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 4.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 77 | Ko Kieft thin prior (1 touches) | TE | TB | vs PIT | 0.8 | -5.9 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 3.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 78 | David Martin-Robinson thin prior (4 touches) | TE | TEN | @ IND | 0.8 | -5.9 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 3.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 79 | Nick Vannett thin prior (6 touches) | TE | BAL | @ CLE | 0.6 | -6.0 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 80 | Oscar Delp thin prior (0 touches) | TE | NO | @ NYG | 0.6 | -6.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 3.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 81 | Carsen Ryan thin prior (0 touches) | TE | CLE | vs BAL | 0.6 | -6.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 2.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 82 | Colson Yankoff thin prior (2 touches) | TE | WAS | @ SF | 0.5 | -6.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 2.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 83 | E.J. Jenkins thin prior (1 touches) | TE | PHI | vs CAR | 0.5 | -6.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 84 | Brayden Willis thin prior (1 touches) | TE | SF | vs WAS | 0.4 | -6.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 85 | Cameron Latu thin prior (0 touches) | TE | NE | vs NYJ | 0.4 | -6.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 86 | Brevin Jordan thin prior (5 touches) | TE | HOU | @ JAX | 0.2 | -6.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 87 | Treyton Welch thin prior (0 touches) | TE | NO | @ NYG | 0.1 | -6.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 88 | Shawn Bowman thin prior (0 touches) | TE | ARI | @ LA | 0.0 | -6.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 89 | Nick Muse thin prior (0 touches) | TE | ATL | vs CHI | 0.0 | -6.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 90 | Keleki Latu thin prior (2 touches) | TE | BUF | @ LV | 0.0 | -6.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 91 | Feleipe Franks thin prior (1 touches) | TE | CAR | @ PHI | 0.0 | -6.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 92 | Mike Gesicki thin prior (55 touches) | TE | CIN | BYE | BYE | 0.0 | -6.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 93 | Drew Sample thin prior (22 touches) | TE | CIN | BYE | BYE | 0.0 | -6.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 94 | Erick All thin prior (7 touches) | TE | CIN | BYE | BYE | 0.0 | -6.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 95 | Jack Endries thin prior (0 touches) | TE | CIN | BYE | BYE | 0.0 | -6.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 96 | Tanner Hudson thin prior (29 touches) | TE | CIN | BYE | BYE | 0.0 | -6.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 97 | Sam LaPorta | TE | DET | BYE | BYE | 0.0 | -6.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 98 | Brock Wright thin prior (19 touches) | TE | DET | BYE | BYE | 0.0 | -6.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 99 | Tyler Conklin thin prior (44 touches) | TE | DET | BYE | BYE | 0.0 | -6.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 100 | Jackson Meeks thin prior (0 touches) | TE | DET | BYE | BYE | 0.0 | -6.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 101 | Josh Whyle thin prior (17 touches) | TE | GB | vs DAL | 0.0 | -6.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 102 | Pharaoh Brown thin prior (8 touches) | TE | IND | vs TEN | 0.0 | -6.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 103 | Tanner Koziol thin prior (0 touches) | TE | JAX | vs HOU | 0.0 | -6.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 104 | Max Klare thin prior (0 touches) | TE | LA | vs ARI | 0.0 | -6.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 105 | Greg Dulcich thin prior (21 touches) | TE | MIA | BYE | BYE | 0.0 | -6.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 106 | Will Kacmarek thin prior (0 touches) | TE | MIA | BYE | BYE | 0.0 | -6.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 107 | Seydou Traore thin prior (0 touches) | TE | MIA | BYE | BYE | 0.0 | -6.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 108 | Justin Joly thin prior (0 touches) | TE | MIA | BYE | BYE | 0.0 | -6.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 109 | Cole Turner thin prior (3 touches) | TE | MIA | BYE | BYE | 0.0 | -6.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 110 | T.J. Hockenson | TE | MIN | BYE | BYE | 0.0 | -6.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 111 | Gavin Bartholomew thin prior (0 touches) | TE | MIN | BYE | BYE | 0.0 | -6.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 112 | Ben Yurosek thin prior (2 touches) | TE | MIN | BYE | BYE | 0.0 | -6.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 113 | Josh Oliver thin prior (24 touches) | TE | MIN | BYE | BYE | 0.0 | -6.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 114 | Andrew Beck ⚠ | TE | NYJ | @ NE | 0.0 | -6.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 115 | Nick Kallerup thin prior (0 touches) | TE | SEA | @ DEN | 0.0 | -6.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 116 | Bauer Sharp thin prior (0 touches) | TE | TB | vs PIT | 0.0 | -6.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
VORP = this player's points minus the points of the last startable player at his position (hover the VORP cell to see who). Baseline rank = teams × starters, with FLEX split RB/WR/TE 45/45/10.
Known limitations
- Thin priors over-projected QBs. Efficiency comes from 2023–25, regressed toward the league average by sample size. Over Weeks 1–4, QB1s whose prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted dropbacks were projected +3.9 PPR a game too high (9 QBs; established QB1s +0.1). Those rows carry a thin prior chip. From Week 7 (model n8-v3) a QB's passing rates also read his own 2026 dropbacks, weighted against the prior's sample plus a fixed anchor, so a few snaps barely move them. On Weeks 5–6 this halved the thin-QB bias. Rushing rates and the game lines still use the prior: the game-level check of the same change failed.
- Team pass volume is a 2023–25 prior too; in-season, only player shares blend toward what is observed. Blending team volume in-season was tested twice and lost to the prior both times.