NFL Player Projections

Week 4 — opponent-adjusted (this week's defence, home/away), availability-weighted, byes zeroed. Components (volume × efficiency) with scoring applied as a view. Model n8-v2 · updated 25d ago.

Week: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8• Season Position: All QB RB WR TE

Scoring: PPR Half Standard DK Rank by: VORP Points ⬇ CSV

League & scoring settings — server-side, from your stored component projections; the URL is the saved config

108 players · ranked by VORP under half_ppr scoring, 12-team league (1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1FLEX). thin prior (n) = the efficiency prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted 2023–25 dropbacks (QB) or 55 touches (RB/WR/TE), so the league average carries about half or more of the line's efficiency; ⚠ = low-sample / rookie (archetype-driven). A designation like Q · 60% means the line is weighted by that play probability; BYE rows project 0 and are kept visible.

Replacement level (VORP is measured against these): QB12 Dak Prescott · 17.4 pts · RB29 Braelon Allen · 9.1 pts · WR41 Khalil Shakir · 7.7 pts · TE13 Cade Otton · 7.3 pts

#	Player	Pos	Tm	Opp	Status	Pts	VORP	Tgt	Rec	RecYd	RecTD
1	Trey McBride	TE	ARI	@ NYG		11.5	+4.2	8.3	6.1	60.8	0.4
2	Isaiah Likely thin prior (43 touches)	TE	NYG	vs ARI		9.9	+2.6	6.2	4.6	53.4	0.4
3	Brock Bowers	TE	LV	vs KC		9.3	+2.0	6.5	4.7	49.1	0.3
4	George Kittle	TE	SF	vs DEN		8.1	+0.9	5.1	3.9	43.3	0.3
5	Dalton Schultz	TE	HOU	vs DAL		8.1	+0.8	5.8	4.1	44.1	0.3
6	Mark Andrews	TE	BAL	vs TEN		7.9	+0.7	4.9	3.6	39.6	0.4
7	T.J. Hockenson	TE	MIN	vs MIA		7.9	+0.6	5.5	4.0	42.9	0.3
8	Tyler Warren	TE	IND	@ WAS		7.7	+0.4	5.6	3.9	41.6	0.3
9	Juwan Johnson	TE	NO	vs ATL		7.7	+0.4	5.1	3.7	42.8	0.2
10	Sam LaPorta	TE	DET	@ CAR		7.6	+0.3	4.9	3.6	39.9	0.3
11	Travis Kelce	TE	KC	@ LV		7.5	+0.2	6.2	4.5	38.7	0.2
12	Dalton Kincaid	TE	BUF	vs NE		7.3	+0.1	4.8	3.5	40.3	0.3
13	Cade Otton	TE	TB	vs GB		7.3	+0.0	5.3	3.8	39.4	0.2
14	Harold Fannin Jr. thin prior (54 touches)	TE	CLE	vs PIT		6.8	-0.4	5.2	3.6	34.8	0.3
15	Tucker Kraft thin prior (51 touches)	TE	GB	@ TB		6.7	-0.6	4.2	3.0	35.6	0.3
16	Brenton Strange thin prior (48 touches)	TE	JAX	@ CIN		6.2	-1.1	4.2	3.1	33.6	0.2
17	Mike Gesicki thin prior (55 touches)	TE	CIN	vs JAX		6.2	-1.1	4.5	3.2	33.1	0.2
18	Jake Ferguson	TE	DAL	@ HOU		6.0	-1.3	4.8	3.6	28.9	0.2
19	Hunter Henry	TE	NE	@ BUF		5.6	-1.7	4.3	3.0	28.7	0.2
20	Greg Dulcich thin prior (21 touches)	TE	MIA	@ MIN		5.6	-1.7	4.3	3.1	29.5	0.2
21	AJ Barner thin prior (45 touches)	TE	SEA	vs LAC		5.6	-1.7	3.9	2.9	27.7	0.2
22	Tyler Higbee thin prior (36 touches)	TE	LA	@ PHI		5.4	-1.8	4.4	3.1	26.9	0.2
23	Colston Loveland thin prior (41 touches)	TE	CHI	vs NYJ		5.4	-1.9	3.6	2.6	28.7	0.2
24	Chig Okonkwo ⚠	TE	WAS	vs IND		5.4	-1.9	3.9	2.8	29.6	0.2
25	Tommy Tremble thin prior (34 touches)	TE	CAR	vs DET		5.3	-2.0	3.8	2.7	27.1	0.2
26	Kyle Pitts	TE	ATL	@ NO		5.2	-2.0	3.9	2.8	28.2	0.2
27	Zach Ertz ⚠	TE	PHI	vs LA		5.2	-2.1	4.2	3.0	25.5	0.2
28	Gunnar Helm thin prior (28 touches)	TE	TEN	@ BAL		4.9	-2.4	3.8	2.8	24.6	0.2
29	Oronde Gadsden II thin prior (34 touches)	TE	LAC	@ SEA		4.8	-2.5	3.7	2.6	25.7	0.2
30	Jeremy Ruckert thin prior (27 touches)	TE	NYJ	@ CHI		4.4	-2.9	3.4	2.5	22.4	0.1
31	Pat Freiermuth	TE	PIT	@ CLE		4.2	-3.1	3.0	2.3	21.0	0.2
32	Kenyon Sadiq thin prior (0 touches)	TE	NYJ	@ CHI	Q · 68%	4.1	-3.1	3.4	2.2	21.5	0.1
33	Michael Mayer thin prior (43 touches)	TE	LV	vs KC		4.1	-3.2	3.1	2.2	21.6	0.1
34	Darnell Washington thin prior (31 touches)	TE	PIT	@ CLE		4.0	-3.3	3.1	2.3	21.2	0.1
35	Evan Engram	TE	DEN	@ SF		3.8	-3.4	3.3	2.4	19.7	0.1
36	Darren Waller thin prior (32 touches)	TE	CAR	vs DET		3.4	-3.9	2.5	1.8	16.8	0.1
37	Cole Kmet	TE	CHI	vs NYJ		3.3	-4.0	2.1	1.6	17.6	0.1
38	Theo Johnson thin prior (50 touches)	TE	NYG	vs ARI		3.2	-4.1	2.2	1.5	17.2	0.1
39	Foster Moreau thin prior (23 touches)	TE	HOU	vs DAL		2.8	-4.5	1.8	1.3	14.8	0.1
40	Drew Sample thin prior (22 touches)	TE	CIN	vs JAX		2.6	-4.6	1.9	1.4	13.3	0.1
41	Adam Trautman thin prior (25 touches)	TE	DEN	@ SF		2.5	-4.7	1.8	1.3	13.2	0.1
42	Noah Gray thin prior (41 touches)	TE	KC	@ LV		2.5	-4.8	1.8	1.3	12.8	0.1
43	Dawson Knox thin prior (42 touches)	TE	BUF	vs NE		2.4	-4.9	1.6	1.1	12.8	0.1
44	Gavin Bartholomew thin prior (0 touches)	TE	MIN	vs MIA		2.2	-5.0	1.7	1.1	12.0	0.1
45	Jonnu Smith ⚠	TE	GB	@ TB		2.2	-5.0	1.7	1.2	11.0	0.1
46	Johnny Mundt thin prior (22 touches)	TE	PHI	vs LA		2.2	-5.1	1.7	1.2	11.1	0.1
47	Blake Whiteheart thin prior (6 touches)	TE	CLE	vs PIT		2.2	-5.1	1.6	1.1	11.2	0.1
48	Payne Durham thin prior (8 touches)	TE	TB	vs GB		2.1	-5.2	1.5	1.0	11.1	0.1
49	Elijah Higgins thin prior (30 touches)	TE	ARI	@ NYG		2.1	-5.2	1.5	1.1	11.2	0.1
50	Oscar Delp thin prior (0 touches)	TE	NO	vs ATL		2.0	-5.2	1.6	1.0	10.8	0.1
51	Daniel Bellinger thin prior (24 touches)	TE	TEN	@ BAL		2.0	-5.2	1.4	1.1	10.9	0.1
52	Austin Hooper thin prior (37 touches)	TE	ATL	@ NO		2.0	-5.3	1.5	1.1	10.4	0.1
53	Nate Boerkircher thin prior (0 touches)	TE	JAX	@ CIN		1.9	-5.3	1.6	1.0	10.2	0.1
54	Mo Alie-Cox thin prior (21 touches)	TE	IND	@ WAS		1.9	-5.3	1.4	1.0	9.9	0.1
55	Davis Allen thin prior (23 touches)	TE	LA	@ PHI		1.9	-5.4	1.5	1.1	9.3	0.1
56	Hayden Rucci thin prior (0 touches)	TE	LAC	@ SEA		1.9	-5.4	1.4	1.0	9.6	0.1
57	Brevyn Spann-Ford thin prior (11 touches)	TE	DAL	@ HOU		1.8	-5.5	1.4	1.0	9.2	0.1
58	Luke Farrell thin prior (15 touches)	TE	SF	vs DEN		1.8	-5.5	1.3	0.9	8.9	0.1
59	Erick All thin prior (7 touches)	TE	CIN	vs JAX		1.7	-5.5	1.2	0.9	9.1	0.1
60	Ben Sinnott thin prior (8 touches)	TE	WAS	vs IND		1.7	-5.5	1.2	0.9	9.0	0.1
61	Brock Wright thin prior (19 touches)	TE	DET	@ CAR		1.7	-5.6	1.2	0.9	8.3	0.1
62	Charlie Woerner thin prior (9 touches)	TE	ATL	@ NO		1.7	-5.6	1.3	0.9	8.5	0.1
63	Durham Smythe thin prior (17 touches)	TE	BAL	vs TEN		1.6	-5.6	1.2	0.8	8.8	0.1
64	Eric Saubert thin prior (8 touches)	TE	SEA	vs LAC		1.6	-5.7	1.2	0.9	8.2	0.1
65	Jelani Woods thin prior (2 touches)	TE	NYJ	@ CHI		1.5	-5.7	1.1	0.8	7.9	0.1
66	Nate Adkins thin prior (11 touches)	TE	DEN	@ SF		1.5	-5.8	1.1	0.8	7.5	0.1
67	Mitchell Evans thin prior (12 touches)	TE	CAR	vs DET		1.5	-5.8	1.1	0.8	7.6	0.1
68	John Bates thin prior (18 touches)	TE	WAS	vs IND		1.5	-5.8	1.1	0.7	7.8	0.1
69	Will Kacmarek thin prior (0 touches)	TE	MIA	@ MIN		1.4	-5.9	1.3	0.8	7.1	0.0
70	Sam Roush thin prior (0 touches)	TE	CHI	vs NYJ		1.4	-5.9	1.1	0.7	7.4	0.1
71	Quintin Morris thin prior (8 touches)	TE	JAX	@ CIN		1.2	-6.0	0.9	0.6	6.3	0.0
72	Matthew Hibner thin prior (0 touches)	TE	BAL	vs TEN		1.2	-6.0	0.9	0.6	6.5	0.0
73	Luke Schoonmaker thin prior (25 touches)	TE	DAL	@ HOU		1.1	-6.1	0.9	0.7	5.8	0.0
74	Andrew Ogletree thin prior (11 touches)	TE	IND	@ WAS		1.1	-6.1	0.8	0.5	5.9	0.0
75	Cameron Latu thin prior (0 touches)	TE	NE	@ BUF		1.1	-6.2	0.8	0.6	5.8	0.0
76	Eli Raridon thin prior (0 touches)	TE	NE	@ BUF	Q · 68%	1.1	-6.2	0.9	0.6	5.6	0.0
77	Jake Briningstool thin prior (0 touches)	TE	KC	@ LV		1.1	-6.2	0.9	0.6	5.6	0.0
78	Jackson Hawes thin prior (10 touches)	TE	BUF	vs NE		1.0	-6.2	0.7	0.5	5.4	0.0
79	Cade Stover thin prior (15 touches)	TE	HOU	vs DAL		1.0	-6.3	0.7	0.5	5.0	0.0
80	Ian Thomas thin prior (10 touches)	TE	LV	vs KC		0.9	-6.3	0.7	0.5	5.0	0.0
81	Elijah Arroyo thin prior (13 touches)	TE	SEA	vs LAC		0.9	-6.3	0.7	0.5	4.9	0.0
82	Jackson Meeks thin prior (0 touches)	TE	DET	@ CAR		0.9	-6.4	0.7	0.4	4.9	0.0
83	Patrick Herbert thin prior (0 touches)	TE	LAC	@ SEA		0.8	-6.5	0.7	0.5	4.2	0.0
84	Robert Tonyan thin prior (4 touches)	TE	PIT	@ CLE		0.8	-6.5	0.7	0.5	4.0	0.0
85	Mark Redman thin prior (0 touches)	TE	GB	@ TB		0.8	-6.5	0.6	0.4	3.9	0.0
86	Seydou Traore thin prior (0 touches)	TE	MIA	@ MIN		0.7	-6.5	0.7	0.4	3.7	0.0
87	Max Klare thin prior (0 touches)	TE	LA	@ PHI		0.7	-6.5	0.6	0.4	3.7	0.0
88	David Martin-Robinson thin prior (4 touches)	TE	TEN	@ BAL		0.7	-6.5	0.5	0.4	3.7	0.0
89	Treyton Welch thin prior (0 touches)	TE	NO	vs ATL		0.7	-6.6	0.6	0.3	3.7	0.0
90	E.J. Jenkins thin prior (1 touches)	TE	PHI	vs LA		0.7	-6.6	0.5	0.4	3.6	0.0
91	Hunter Long thin prior (11 touches)	TE	ARI	@ NYG		0.7	-6.6	0.5	0.4	3.4	0.0
92	Tanner Hudson thin prior (29 touches)	TE	CIN	vs JAX		0.7	-6.6	0.5	0.4	3.3	0.0
93	Bauer Sharp thin prior (0 touches)	TE	TB	vs GB		0.6	-6.7	0.5	0.3	3.1	0.0
94	Colson Yankoff thin prior (2 touches)	TE	WAS	vs IND		0.6	-6.7	0.4	0.3	3.0	0.0
95	Brayden Willis thin prior (1 touches)	TE	SF	vs DEN		0.5	-6.7	0.4	0.3	2.8	0.0
96	Carsen Ryan thin prior (0 touches)	TE	CLE	vs PIT		0.5	-6.8	0.4	0.3	2.7	0.0
97	Josh Cuevas thin prior (0 touches)	TE	BAL	vs TEN		0.3	-6.9	0.3	0.2	1.8	0.0
98	Nick Muse thin prior (0 touches)	TE	ATL	@ NO		0.0	-7.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
99	Keleki Latu thin prior (2 touches)	TE	BUF	vs NE		0.0	-7.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
100	Feleipe Franks thin prior (1 touches)	TE	CAR	vs DET		0.0	-7.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
101	Jack Endries thin prior (0 touches)	TE	CIN	vs JAX		0.0	-7.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
102	Josh Whyle thin prior (17 touches)	TE	GB	@ TB		0.0	-7.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
103	Brevin Jordan thin prior (5 touches)	TE	HOU	vs DAL		0.0	-7.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
104	Tanner Koziol thin prior (0 touches)	TE	JAX	@ CIN		0.0	-7.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
105	Justin Joly thin prior (0 touches)	TE	MIA	@ MIN		0.0	-7.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
106	Andrew Beck ⚠	TE	NYJ	@ CHI		0.0	-7.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
107	Josiah Deguara thin prior (5 touches)	TE	PHI	vs LA		0.0	-7.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
108	Nick Kallerup thin prior (0 touches)	TE	SEA	vs LAC		0.0	-7.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

VORP = this player's points minus the points of the last startable player at his position (hover the VORP cell to see who). Baseline rank = teams × starters, with FLEX split RB/WR/TE 45/45/10.

Known limitations

Thin priors over-projected QBs. Efficiency comes from 2023–25, regressed toward the league average by sample size. Over Weeks 1–4, QB1s whose prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted dropbacks were projected +3.9 PPR a game too high (9 QBs; established QB1s +0.1). Those rows carry a thin prior chip. From Week 7 (model n8-v3) a QB's passing rates also read his own 2026 dropbacks, weighted against the prior's sample plus a fixed anchor, so a few snaps barely move them. On Weeks 5–6 this halved the thin-QB bias. Rushing rates and the game lines still use the prior: the game-level check of the same change failed.
Team pass volume is a 2023–25 prior too; in-season, only player shares blend toward what is observed. Blending team volume in-season was tested twice and lost to the prior both times.