NFL Player Projections

Week 2 — opponent-adjusted (this week's defence, home/away), availability-weighted, byes zeroed. Components (volume × efficiency) with scoring applied as a view. Model n8-v2 · updated 39d ago.

Week: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8• Season Position: All QB RB WR TE

Scoring: PPR Half Standard DK Rank by: VORP Points ⬇ CSV

League & scoring settings — server-side, from your stored component projections; the URL is the saved config

115 players · ranked by VORP under half_ppr scoring, 12-team league (1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1FLEX). thin prior (n) = the efficiency prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted 2023–25 dropbacks (QB) or 55 touches (RB/WR/TE), so the league average carries about half or more of the line's efficiency; ⚠ = low-sample / rookie (archetype-driven). A designation like Q · 60% means the line is weighted by that play probability; BYE rows project 0 and are kept visible.

Replacement level (VORP is measured against these): QB12 Baker Mayfield · 17.8 pts · RB29 Quinshon Judkins · 9.2 pts · WR41 KC Concepcion · 7.8 pts · TE13 Cade Otton · 6.6 pts

#	Player	Pos	Tm	Opp	Status	Pts	VORP	Tgt	Rec	RecYd	RecTD
1	Trey McBride	TE	ARI	vs SEA		11.0	+4.4	7.9	5.9	58.6	0.4
2	Dalton Schultz	TE	HOU	vs CIN		8.6	+2.0	6.1	4.3	47.2	0.3
3	Michael Mayer thin prior (43 touches)	TE	LV	@ LAC		8.6	+1.9	6.9	4.9	44.5	0.3
4	Travis Kelce	TE	KC	vs IND		8.1	+1.4	6.3	4.5	42.5	0.3
5	George Kittle	TE	SF	vs MIA		7.7	+1.1	4.5	3.5	41.9	0.3
6	Jake Ferguson	TE	DAL	vs WAS		7.4	+0.8	5.1	3.8	37.6	0.3
7	Isaiah Likely thin prior (43 touches)	TE	NYG	@ LA		7.4	+0.7	5.2	3.8	38.3	0.3
8	Mark Andrews	TE	BAL	vs NO		7.2	+0.6	4.8	3.5	35.4	0.3
9	Sam LaPorta	TE	DET	@ BUF		7.1	+0.5	4.8	3.6	36.9	0.3
10	Tucker Kraft thin prior (51 touches)	TE	GB	@ NYJ		7.0	+0.4	4.2	3.1	37.6	0.3
11	Dalton Kincaid	TE	BUF	vs DET		7.0	+0.3	4.7	3.4	37.9	0.2
12	Dallas Goedert	TE	PHI	@ TEN		6.9	+0.3	4.6	3.4	34.3	0.3
13	Cade Otton	TE	TB	vs CLE		6.6	+0.0	5.2	3.7	35.1	0.2
14	Kyle Pitts	TE	ATL	vs CAR		6.4	-0.2	4.3	3.0	35.6	0.2
15	Juwan Johnson	TE	NO	@ BAL		6.4	-0.2	4.6	3.4	34.7	0.2
16	T.J. Hockenson	TE	MIN	@ CHI		6.2	-0.4	4.7	3.4	32.8	0.2
17	Hunter Henry	TE	NE	vs PIT		6.2	-0.5	4.4	3.1	32.4	0.2
18	Mike Gesicki thin prior (55 touches)	TE	CIN	@ HOU		6.2	-0.5	4.9	3.6	31.9	0.2
19	Charlie Kolar thin prior (13 touches)	TE	LAC	vs LV		6.1	-0.6	3.9	2.8	32.4	0.2
20	Brenton Strange thin prior (48 touches)	TE	JAX	@ DEN		6.0	-0.6	4.4	3.3	31.8	0.2
21	Colby Parkinson thin prior (50 touches)	TE	LA	vs NYG		5.9	-0.7	3.9	2.8	29.4	0.3
22	Tyler Warren	TE	IND	@ KC		5.8	-0.8	4.6	3.2	30.8	0.2
23	Tommy Tremble thin prior (34 touches)	TE	CAR	@ ATL		5.8	-0.8	4.2	3.1	29.6	0.2
24	Harold Fannin Jr. thin prior (54 touches)	TE	CLE	@ TB		5.6	-1.1	4.4	3.1	28.0	0.2
25	AJ Barner thin prior (45 touches)	TE	SEA	@ ARI		5.3	-1.3	3.7	2.7	26.3	0.2
26	Evan Engram	TE	DEN	vs JAX		5.3	-1.3	4.3	3.1	27.8	0.2
27	Mason Taylor thin prior (32 touches)	TE	NYJ	vs GB		5.2	-1.4	4.2	3.0	27.1	0.2
28	John Bates thin prior (18 touches)	TE	WAS	@ DAL		5.1	-1.5	3.8	2.7	26.7	0.2
29	Gunnar Helm thin prior (28 touches)	TE	TEN	vs PHI		5.1	-1.5	3.9	2.9	26.0	0.2
30	Colston Loveland thin prior (41 touches)	TE	CHI	vs MIN		5.0	-1.6	3.8	2.7	26.0	0.2
31	Greg Dulcich thin prior (21 touches)	TE	MIA	@ SF		5.0	-1.6	3.6	2.6	26.9	0.2
32	Darnell Washington thin prior (31 touches)	TE	PIT	@ NE		4.5	-2.1	3.3	2.4	24.4	0.1
33	Pat Freiermuth	TE	PIT	@ NE		3.9	-2.7	2.6	2.0	20.2	0.1
34	Cole Kmet	TE	CHI	vs MIN		3.8	-2.9	2.7	2.0	19.5	0.1
35	David Njoku ⚠	TE	LAC	vs LV		3.4	-3.2	2.5	1.7	17.2	0.1
36	Josh Oliver thin prior (24 touches)	TE	MIN	@ CHI		3.2	-3.4	2.1	1.6	15.9	0.1
37	Noah Fant thin prior (48 touches)	TE	NO	@ BAL		3.0	-3.6	2.2	1.7	16.0	0.1
38	Adam Trautman thin prior (25 touches)	TE	DEN	vs JAX		2.9	-3.8	2.0	1.4	15.1	0.1
39	Brevyn Spann-Ford thin prior (11 touches)	TE	DAL	vs WAS		2.8	-3.9	1.9	1.3	15.0	0.1
40	Foster Moreau thin prior (23 touches)	TE	HOU	vs CIN		2.8	-3.9	1.8	1.3	14.8	0.1
41	Kenyon Sadiq thin prior (0 touches)	TE	NYJ	vs GB		2.7	-3.9	2.2	1.4	14.5	0.1
42	Tyler Higbee thin prior (36 touches)	TE	LA	vs NYG		2.7	-3.9	2.0	1.4	14.1	0.1
43	Noah Gray thin prior (41 touches)	TE	KC	vs IND		2.6	-4.1	1.8	1.3	13.7	0.1
44	Dawson Knox thin prior (42 touches)	TE	BUF	vs DET		2.5	-4.2	1.7	1.2	13.2	0.1
45	Drew Sample thin prior (22 touches)	TE	CIN	@ HOU		2.5	-4.2	2.0	1.5	12.0	0.1
46	Theo Johnson thin prior (50 touches)	TE	NYG	@ LA		2.3	-4.3	1.8	1.2	12.2	0.1
47	Jonnu Smith ⚠	TE	GB	@ NYJ		2.3	-4.3	1.7	1.2	11.5	0.1
48	Elijah Higgins thin prior (30 touches)	TE	ARI	vs SEA		2.2	-4.4	1.6	1.2	12.0	0.1
49	Luke Farrell thin prior (15 touches)	TE	SF	vs MIA		2.2	-4.5	1.5	1.1	11.3	0.1
50	Payne Durham thin prior (8 touches)	TE	TB	vs CLE		2.1	-4.5	1.6	1.1	11.1	0.1
51	Blake Whiteheart thin prior (6 touches)	TE	CLE	@ TB		2.1	-4.5	1.6	1.1	10.8	0.1
52	Mitchell Evans thin prior (12 touches)	TE	CAR	@ ATL		2.1	-4.5	1.6	1.2	10.4	0.1
53	Ben Sinnott thin prior (8 touches)	TE	WAS	@ DAL		2.0	-4.6	1.4	1.1	10.5	0.1
54	Mo Alie-Cox thin prior (21 touches)	TE	IND	@ KC		2.0	-4.7	1.6	1.1	9.8	0.1
55	Charlie Woerner thin prior (9 touches)	TE	ATL	vs CAR		1.9	-4.7	1.4	1.0	10.3	0.1
56	Nate Boerkircher thin prior (0 touches)	TE	JAX	@ DEN		1.9	-4.7	1.7	1.1	10.0	0.1
57	Daniel Bellinger thin prior (24 touches)	TE	TEN	vs PHI		1.9	-4.7	1.3	1.0	10.4	0.1
58	Oronde Gadsden II thin prior (34 touches)	TE	LAC	vs LV		1.9	-4.7	1.3	0.9	10.5	0.1
59	Ian Thomas thin prior (10 touches)	TE	LV	@ LAC		1.9	-4.8	1.4	1.0	9.6	0.1
60	Durham Smythe thin prior (17 touches)	TE	BAL	vs NO		1.8	-4.8	1.4	1.0	9.3	0.1
61	Brock Wright thin prior (19 touches)	TE	DET	@ BUF		1.8	-4.9	1.3	1.0	8.6	0.1
62	Eli Raridon thin prior (0 touches)	TE	NE	vs PIT		1.8	-4.9	1.4	0.9	9.2	0.1
63	Johnny Mundt thin prior (22 touches)	TE	PHI	@ TEN		1.8	-4.9	1.4	0.9	9.0	0.1
64	Will Kacmarek thin prior (0 touches)	TE	MIA	@ SF		1.7	-4.9	1.4	0.9	9.0	0.1
65	Eric Saubert thin prior (8 touches)	TE	SEA	@ ARI		1.5	-5.1	1.2	0.8	7.8	0.1
66	Luke Schoonmaker thin prior (25 touches)	TE	DAL	vs WAS		1.4	-5.2	1.0	0.7	7.5	0.1
67	Jeremy Ruckert thin prior (27 touches)	TE	NYJ	vs GB		1.4	-5.3	1.0	0.7	7.1	0.0
68	Darren Waller thin prior (32 touches)	TE	CAR	@ ATL		1.2	-5.5	0.9	0.6	5.7	0.0
69	Terrance Ferguson thin prior (12 touches)	TE	LA	vs NYG		1.1	-5.5	0.8	0.5	5.9	0.0
70	Quintin Morris thin prior (8 touches)	TE	JAX	@ DEN		1.1	-5.5	0.8	0.6	5.5	0.0
71	Jake Briningstool thin prior (0 touches)	TE	KC	vs IND		1.0	-5.6	0.8	0.5	5.5	0.0
72	Andrew Ogletree thin prior (11 touches)	TE	IND	@ KC		1.0	-5.6	0.7	0.5	5.0	0.0
73	Marlin Klein thin prior (0 touches)	TE	HOU	vs CIN		1.0	-5.7	0.7	0.5	5.3	0.0
74	Jackson Hawes thin prior (10 touches)	TE	BUF	vs DET		0.9	-5.7	0.6	0.4	4.7	0.0
75	Ko Kieft thin prior (1 touches)	TE	TB	vs CLE		0.9	-5.7	0.7	0.5	4.6	0.0
76	Erick All thin prior (7 touches)	TE	CIN	@ HOU		0.9	-5.7	0.7	0.5	4.5	0.0
77	Austin Hooper thin prior (37 touches)	TE	ATL	vs CAR		0.9	-5.8	0.6	0.4	4.6	0.0
78	Josh Whyle thin prior (17 touches)	TE	GB	@ NYJ		0.9	-5.8	0.6	0.4	4.4	0.0
79	Cameron Latu thin prior (0 touches)	TE	NE	vs PIT		0.8	-5.8	0.6	0.4	4.5	0.0
80	Brayden Willis thin prior (1 touches)	TE	SF	vs MIA		0.8	-5.8	0.6	0.4	4.6	0.0
81	Matthew Hibner thin prior (0 touches)	TE	BAL	vs NO		0.8	-5.8	0.7	0.4	4.4	0.0
82	Elijah Arroyo thin prior (13 touches)	TE	SEA	@ ARI		0.8	-5.8	0.6	0.4	4.2	0.0
83	Tyler Conklin thin prior (44 touches)	TE	DET	@ BUF		0.8	-5.8	0.6	0.4	4.1	0.0
84	Sam Roush thin prior (0 touches)	TE	CHI	vs MIN		0.8	-5.9	0.7	0.4	4.0	0.0
85	E.J. Jenkins thin prior (1 touches)	TE	PHI	@ TEN		0.8	-5.9	0.5	0.4	4.0	0.0
86	Oscar Delp thin prior (0 touches)	TE	NO	@ BAL		0.8	-5.9	0.6	0.4	3.9	0.0
87	Robert Tonyan thin prior (4 touches)	TE	PIT	@ NE		0.8	-5.9	0.6	0.4	3.8	0.0
88	David Martin-Robinson thin prior (4 touches)	TE	TEN	vs PHI		0.7	-5.9	0.5	0.4	3.8	0.0
89	Seydou Traore thin prior (0 touches)	TE	MIA	@ SF		0.7	-5.9	0.6	0.4	3.8	0.0
90	Nate Adkins thin prior (11 touches)	TE	DEN	vs JAX		0.7	-5.9	0.5	0.4	3.6	0.0
91	Gavin Bartholomew thin prior (0 touches)	TE	MIN	@ CHI		0.7	-5.9	0.6	0.4	3.7	0.0
92	Hunter Long thin prior (11 touches)	TE	ARI	vs SEA		0.7	-5.9	0.5	0.4	3.5	0.0
93	Colson Yankoff thin prior (2 touches)	TE	WAS	@ DAL		0.7	-6.0	0.5	0.3	3.5	0.0
94	Carsen Ryan thin prior (0 touches)	TE	CLE	@ TB		0.7	-6.0	0.6	0.3	3.5	0.0
95	Davis Allen thin prior (23 touches)	TE	LA	vs NYG		0.3	-6.3	0.2	0.2	1.8	0.0
96	Cade Stover thin prior (15 touches)	TE	HOU	vs CIN		0.3	-6.4	0.2	0.1	1.4	0.0
97	Brock Bowers	TE	LV	@ LAC	D · 2%	0.1	-6.5	0.1	0.1	0.7	0.0
98	Nick Muse thin prior (0 touches)	TE	ATL	vs CAR		0.0	-6.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
99	Josh Cuevas thin prior (0 touches)	TE	BAL	vs NO		0.0	-6.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
100	Keleki Latu thin prior (2 touches)	TE	BUF	vs DET		0.0	-6.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
101	Feleipe Franks thin prior (1 touches)	TE	CAR	@ ATL		0.0	-6.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
102	Jack Endries thin prior (0 touches)	TE	CIN	@ HOU		0.0	-6.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
103	Dallen Bentley thin prior (0 touches)	TE	DEN	vs JAX		0.0	-6.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
104	Jackson Meeks thin prior (0 touches)	TE	DET	@ BUF		0.0	-6.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
105	Mark Redman thin prior (0 touches)	TE	GB	@ NYJ		0.0	-6.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
106	Jared Wiley thin prior (1 touches)	TE	KC	vs IND		0.0	-6.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
107	Max Klare thin prior (0 touches)	TE	LA	vs NYG		0.0	-6.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
108	Chris Myarick thin prior (0 touches)	TE	LV	@ LAC		0.0	-6.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
109	Justin Joly thin prior (0 touches)	TE	MIA	@ SF		0.0	-6.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
110	Treyton Welch thin prior (0 touches)	TE	NO	@ BAL		0.0	-6.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
111	Thomas Fidone II thin prior (0 touches)	TE	NYG	@ LA		0.0	-6.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
112	Andrew Beck ⚠	TE	NYJ	vs GB		0.0	-6.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
113	Jelani Woods thin prior (2 touches)	TE	NYJ	vs GB		0.0	-6.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
114	Nick Kallerup thin prior (0 touches)	TE	SEA	@ ARI		0.0	-6.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
115	Bauer Sharp thin prior (0 touches)	TE	TB	vs CLE		0.0	-6.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

VORP = this player's points minus the points of the last startable player at his position (hover the VORP cell to see who). Baseline rank = teams × starters, with FLEX split RB/WR/TE 45/45/10.

Known limitations

Thin priors over-projected QBs. Efficiency comes from 2023–25, regressed toward the league average by sample size. Over Weeks 1–4, QB1s whose prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted dropbacks were projected +3.9 PPR a game too high (9 QBs; established QB1s +0.1). Those rows carry a thin prior chip. From Week 7 (model n8-v3) a QB's passing rates also read his own 2026 dropbacks, weighted against the prior's sample plus a fixed anchor, so a few snaps barely move them. On Weeks 5–6 this halved the thin-QB bias. Rushing rates and the game lines still use the prior: the game-level check of the same change failed.
Team pass volume is a 2023–25 prior too; in-season, only player shares blend toward what is observed. Blending team volume in-season was tested twice and lost to the prior both times.