NFL Player Projections

Week 7 — opponent-adjusted (this week's defence, home/away), availability-weighted, byes zeroed. Components (volume × efficiency) with scoring applied as a view. Model n8-v3 · updated 4d ago.

Week: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8• Season Position: All QB RB WR TE

Scoring: PPR Half Standard DK Rank by: VORP Points ⬇ CSV

League & scoring settings — server-side, from your stored component projections; the URL is the saved config

96 players · ranked by VORP under standard scoring, 12-team league (1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1FLEX). thin prior (n) = the efficiency prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted 2023–25 dropbacks (QB) or 55 touches (RB/WR/TE), so the league average carries about half or more of the line's efficiency; ⚠ = low-sample / rookie (archetype-driven). A designation like Q · 60% means the line is weighted by that play probability; BYE rows project 0 and are kept visible.

Replacement level (VORP is measured against these): QB12 Patrick Mahomes · 16.8 pts · RB29 Alvin Kamara · 7.0 pts · WR41 Kendrick Bourne · 5.6 pts · TE13 Kyle Pitts · 5.1 pts

#	Player	Pos	Tm	Opp	Status	Pts	VORP	Tgt	Rec	RecYd	RecTD	Car	RuYd	RuTD
1	Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	DET	vs GB		19.8	+12.8	4.9	3.9	32.4	0.2	18.5	98.8	0.9
2	Bijan Robinson	RB	ATL	vs SF		16.7	+9.8	4.9	3.8	33.9	0.2	17.4	90.4	0.6
3	Derrick Henry	RB	BAL	vs CIN		13.9	+6.9	1.9	1.5	9.9	0.0	19.4	84.1	0.7
4	Jonathan Taylor	RB	IND	@ MIN		13.3	+6.3	3.3	2.6	17.1	0.1	16.9	71.9	0.7
5	Dameon Pierce thin prior (48 touches)	RB	PHI	vs DAL		13.0	+6.1	3.3	2.5	19.9	0.1	16.7	74.6	0.5
6	Kyren Williams	RB	LA	@ LV		12.9	+6.0	4.6	3.5	24.7	0.2	14.7	63.2	0.5
7	Kenneth Walker III ⚠	RB	KC	@ SEA		12.1	+5.1	4.7	3.8	27.0	0.1	15.3	61.3	0.4
8	D'Andre Swift	RB	CHI	vs NE		11.8	+4.8	3.3	2.5	20.2	0.1	14.7	65.7	0.5
9	Bucky Irving	RB	TB	@ CAR		11.1	+4.1	3.8	3.1	25.5	0.1	13.0	58.1	0.3
10	Javonte Williams	RB	DAL	@ PHI		10.7	+3.7	3.3	2.5	14.1	0.1	15.0	60.5	0.5
11	Chase Brown	RB	CIN	@ BAL		10.6	+3.7	4.5	3.6	23.7	0.2	13.2	52.8	0.3
12	Chuba Hubbard	RB	CAR	vs TB		10.6	+3.7	2.6	2.1	14.4	0.1	15.6	63.2	0.4
13	Christian McCaffrey	RB	SF	@ ATL		10.6	+3.6	5.4	4.3	29.9	0.2	12.7	44.2	0.3
14	Braelon Allen thin prior (37 touches)	RB	NYJ	vs MIA		10.4	+3.5	2.4	1.8	14.6	0.1	14.1	59.4	0.4
15	Emanuel Wilson ⚠	RB	SEA	vs KC		10.2	+3.3	2.0	1.6	11.3	0.1	14.2	62.1	0.4
16	Jaylen Warren	RB	PIT	@ NO		10.0	+3.0	3.8	3.1	20.8	0.1	13.4	54.8	0.3
17	Ashton Jeanty	RB	LV	vs LA		9.9	+3.0	4.2	3.2	22.5	0.2	12.4	48.9	0.3
18	Woody Marks	RB	HOU	vs NYG		9.5	+2.5	2.6	1.9	15.7	0.1	13.0	55.0	0.3
19	Cam Skattebo thin prior (50 touches)	RB	NYG	@ HOU		9.4	+2.4	2.4	1.9	13.4	0.1	12.9	50.6	0.4
20	J.K. Dobbins	RB	DEN	@ ARI		9.3	+2.4	2.2	1.8	11.1	0.1	12.7	55.4	0.4
21	Tyler Allgeier ⚠	RB	ARI	vs DEN		9.2	+2.3	2.6	2.1	15.6	0.1	11.7	47.7	0.4
22	Tony Pollard	RB	TEN	vs CLE		9.2	+2.2	2.7	2.1	12.3	0.1	14.7	58.0	0.3
23	Quinshon Judkins	RB	CLE	@ TEN		9.2	+2.2	3.7	2.8	21.0	0.1	11.7	43.8	0.4
24	Rhamondre Stevenson	RB	NE	@ CHI		8.5	+1.6	3.2	2.6	18.2	0.1	10.6	41.9	0.4
25	Josh Jacobs	RB	GB	@ DET		8.0	+1.1	2.8	2.2	15.4	0.1	10.3	38.2	0.4
26	Ollie Gordon II thin prior (35 touches)	RB	MIA	@ NYJ		7.9	+1.0	2.2	1.8	12.9	0.1	11.1	40.5	0.4
27	Aaron Jones	RB	MIN	vs IND		7.6	+0.6	3.3	2.5	15.8	0.1	12.1	42.4	0.2
28	Saquon Barkley	RB	PHI	vs DAL	Q · 72%	7.3	+0.3	2.0	1.5	11.2	0.1	9.3	41.6	0.3
29	Alvin Kamara	RB	NO	vs PIT		7.0	+0.0	3.7	3.0	18.2	0.1	9.9	34.3	0.2
30	RJ Harvey	RB	DEN	@ ARI		6.7	-0.3	3.9	3.1	23.6	0.2	5.5	21.8	0.2
31	Kendre Miller thin prior (43 touches)	RB	NO	vs PIT		6.3	-0.6	1.4	1.1	8.8	0.0	8.5	36.8	0.3
32	TreVeyon Henderson	RB	NE	@ CHI		6.2	-0.7	1.2	1.0	7.0	0.0	7.5	35.9	0.3
33	Blake Corum	RB	LA	@ LV		5.8	-1.2	1.7	1.3	9.3	0.0	7.4	32.5	0.2
34	Khalil Herbert thin prior (45 touches)	RB	ATL	vs SF		5.8	-1.2	1.5	1.2	8.0	0.0	8.1	34.3	0.2
35	MarShawn Lloyd thin prior (2 touches)	RB	GB	@ DET		5.6	-1.4	1.5	1.2	8.6	0.0	7.6	31.5	0.2
36	Roschon Johnson thin prior (34 touches)	RB	CHI	vs NE		5.6	-1.4	1.9	1.5	11.7	0.1	6.2	26.2	0.2
37	Kenny Gainwell ⚠	RB	TB	@ CAR		4.9	-2.0	2.7	2.2	14.9	0.1	4.7	20.9	0.2
38	Tyler Goodson thin prior (17 touches)	RB	DAL	@ PHI		4.8	-2.1	1.6	1.2	8.0	0.0	6.6	26.9	0.2
39	Bam Knight thin prior (42 touches)	RB	ARI	vs DEN		4.7	-2.3	1.1	0.8	6.3	0.0	6.3	25.0	0.2
40	George Holani thin prior (12 touches)	RB	SEA	vs KC		4.5	-2.4	1.7	1.3	9.7	0.1	5.5	22.8	0.2
41	Dare Ogunbowale thin prior (16 touches)	RB	HOU	vs NYG		4.5	-2.5	1.1	0.9	5.5	0.0	7.5	26.3	0.2
42	Kaelon Black thin prior (0 touches)	RB	SF	@ ATL		4.3	-2.6	0.9	0.6	4.5	0.0	7.3	26.6	0.2
43	Justice Hill thin prior (40 touches)	RB	BAL	vs CIN		4.2	-2.8	1.8	1.4	10.6	0.1	4.3	19.2	0.1
44	Trevor Etienne thin prior (10 touches)	RB	CAR	vs TB		4.2	-2.8	1.3	1.0	7.7	0.0	5.3	22.9	0.2
45	Isaiah Davis thin prior (30 touches)	RB	NYJ	vs MIA		4.1	-2.8	0.9	0.7	5.9	0.0	4.9	24.7	0.2
46	Sione Vaki thin prior (2 touches)	RB	DET	vs GB		4.1	-2.9	1.1	0.9	7.1	0.0	5.0	22.3	0.2
47	Jordan Mason	RB	MIN	vs IND	Q · 72%	3.6	-3.3	0.7	0.6	4.2	0.0	4.6	22.1	0.2
48	Samaje Perine	RB	CIN	@ BAL		3.5	-3.4	1.7	1.4	8.7	0.0	5.1	17.6	0.1
49	Dylan Laube thin prior (4 touches)	RB	LV	vs LA		3.5	-3.5	1.2	0.9	6.5	0.0	4.5	18.6	0.1
50	Rico Dowdle ⚠	RB	PIT	@ NO	Q · 66%	3.5	-3.5	1.4	1.1	7.0	0.0	4.8	19.4	0.1
51	Emmett Johnson thin prior (0 touches)	RB	KC	@ SEA		3.4	-3.6	1.9	1.3	8.8	0.0	4.5	15.8	0.1
52	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	RB	NYG	@ HOU		3.2	-3.7	1.2	0.9	6.1	0.0	4.8	18.5	0.1
53	Jaylen Wright	RB	MIA	@ NYJ		3.2	-3.7	0.7	0.5	4.0	0.0	5.0	20.0	0.1
54	Dylan Sampson thin prior (32 touches)	RB	CLE	@ TEN		3.2	-3.7	1.2	0.9	7.2	0.0	4.5	16.3	0.1
55	Pierre Strong thin prior (20 touches)	RB	GB	@ DET		3.1	-3.8	1.6	1.2	8.1	0.0	3.8	15.0	0.1
56	Devin Singletary	RB	NYG	@ HOU		2.9	-4.0	1.1	0.9	5.2	0.0	4.7	15.5	0.1
57	Seth McGowan thin prior (0 touches)	RB	IND	@ MIN		2.8	-4.2	1.0	0.7	4.4	0.0	4.5	15.6	0.1
58	Corey Kiner thin prior (6 touches)	RB	NE	@ CHI		2.6	-4.3	0.5	0.4	2.6	0.0	3.7	16.3	0.1
59	DeeJay Dallas thin prior (6 touches)	RB	MIN	vs IND		2.6	-4.3	1.0	0.8	5.7	0.0	3.1	13.3	0.1
60	Sean Tucker	RB	TB	@ CAR		2.5	-4.4	0.5	0.4	2.9	0.0	3.0	13.5	0.1
61	Travis Homer thin prior (2 touches)	RB	PIT	@ NO		2.5	-4.5	0.7	0.5	3.4	0.0	3.8	14.3	0.1
62	Jaleel McLaughlin ⚠	RB	CLE	@ TEN		2.4	-4.6	1.1	0.9	5.9	0.0	2.6	11.6	0.1
63	Julius Chestnut thin prior (12 touches)	RB	TEN	vs CLE		2.3	-4.7	0.8	0.6	4.1	0.0	2.9	12.5	0.1
64	CJ Donaldson thin prior (0 touches)	RB	NO	vs PIT		2.2	-4.8	0.8	0.5	4.1	0.0	3.0	11.6	0.1
65	Evan Hull thin prior (10 touches)	RB	ARI	vs DEN		2.1	-4.9	0.6	0.5	3.6	0.0	2.8	11.3	0.1
66	Kaleb Johnson thin prior (14 touches)	RB	GB	@ DET		2.1	-4.9	0.4	0.3	2.4	0.0	3.3	12.4	0.1
67	Velus Jones Jr. thin prior (2 touches)	RB	SEA	vs KC		2.0	-4.9	0.5	0.3	4.1	0.0	2.3	10.4	0.1
68	Kaytron Allen thin prior (0 touches)	RB	MIA	@ NYJ		2.0	-5.0	0.3	0.2	1.8	0.0	3.3	12.2	0.1
69	Jonah Coleman thin prior (0 touches)	RB	DEN	@ ARI	Q · 72%	1.9	-5.0	0.7	0.5	3.5	0.0	2.8	10.4	0.1
70	Michael Carter ⚠	RB	TEN	vs CLE		1.8	-5.2	0.6	0.5	3.3	0.0	2.4	10.0	0.1
71	Mike Washington Jr. thin prior (0 touches)	RB	LV	vs LA	Q · 43%	1.6	-5.3	0.4	0.3	2.2	0.0	2.4	9.2	0.1
72	Jaydn Ott thin prior (0 touches)	RB	KC	@ SEA		1.5	-5.4	0.7	0.5	3.3	0.0	2.2	7.7	0.1
73	DJ Giddens thin prior (13 touches)	RB	IND	@ MIN		1.5	-5.5	0.6	0.5	3.1	0.0	2.0	7.5	0.1
74	Jordan James thin prior (0 touches)	RB	SF	@ ATL		1.4	-5.6	0.3	0.2	1.7	0.0	2.1	8.0	0.1
75	Anthony Tyus III thin prior (0 touches)	RB	CAR	vs TB		1.2	-5.7	0.4	0.3	2.3	0.0	1.8	6.7	0.0
76	Lew Nichols III thin prior (0 touches)	RB	PIT	@ NO		1.2	-5.7	0.7	0.5	3.7	0.0	1.3	5.3	0.0
77	Rasheen Ali thin prior (6 touches)	RB	BAL	vs CIN		1.1	-5.9	0.2	0.2	1.4	0.0	1.3	6.2	0.0
78	Dean Connors thin prior (0 touches)	RB	LA	@ LV		1.0	-6.0	0.4	0.3	2.0	0.0	1.4	5.1	0.0
79	Jacob Saylors thin prior (1 touches)	RB	DET	vs GB		1.0	-6.0	0.3	0.2	1.6	0.0	1.2	5.3	0.0
80	Tahj Brooks thin prior (8 touches)	RB	CIN	@ BAL		0.9	-6.0	0.4	0.3	2.1	0.0	1.2	4.6	0.0
81	Kalel Mullings thin prior (2 touches)	RB	TEN	vs CLE		0.9	-6.0	0.5	0.4	2.8	0.0	0.8	3.7	0.0
82	Robert Henry Jr. thin prior (0 touches)	RB	SEA	vs KC		0.8	-6.1	0.6	0.4	3.0	0.0	0.8	3.0	0.0
83	James Cook	RB	BUF	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
84	Ty Johnson thin prior (43 touches)	RB	BUF	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
85	Ray Davis	RB	BUF	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
86	Bhayshul Tuten thin prior (42 touches)	RB	JAX	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
87	Chris Rodriguez Jr. ⚠	RB	JAX	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
88	LeQuint Allen Jr. thin prior (12 touches)	RB	JAX	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
89	Ameer Abdullah thin prior (30 touches)	RB	JAX	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
90	Omarion Hampton	RB	LAC	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
91	Keaton Mitchell thin prior (43 touches)	RB	LAC	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
92	Kimani Vidal	RB	LAC	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
93	Rachaad White ⚠	RB	WAS	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
94	Austin Ekeler	RB	WAS	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
95	Jeremy McNichols thin prior (38 touches)	RB	WAS	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
96	Jacory Croskey-Merritt	RB	WAS	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

VORP = this player's points minus the points of the last startable player at his position (hover the VORP cell to see who). Baseline rank = teams × starters, with FLEX split RB/WR/TE 45/45/10.

Known limitations

Thin priors over-projected QBs. Efficiency comes from 2023–25, regressed toward the league average by sample size. Over Weeks 1–4, QB1s whose prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted dropbacks were projected +3.9 PPR a game too high (9 QBs; established QB1s +0.1). Those rows carry a thin prior chip. From Week 7 (model n8-v3) a QB's passing rates also read his own 2026 dropbacks, weighted against the prior's sample plus a fixed anchor, so a few snaps barely move them. On Weeks 5–6 this halved the thin-QB bias. Rushing rates and the game lines still use the prior: the game-level check of the same change failed.
Team pass volume is a 2023–25 prior too; in-season, only player shares blend toward what is observed. Blending team volume in-season was tested twice and lost to the prior both times.