NFL Player Projections

Week 6 — opponent-adjusted (this week's defence, home/away), availability-weighted, byes zeroed. Components (volume × efficiency) with scoring applied as a view. Model n8-v2 · updated 11d ago.

Week: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8• Season Position: All QB RB WR TE

Scoring: PPR Half Standard DK Rank by: VORP Points ⬇ CSV

League & scoring settings — server-side, from your stored component projections; the URL is the saved config

100 players · ranked by VORP under standard scoring, 12-team league (1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1FLEX). thin prior (n) = the efficiency prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted 2023–25 dropbacks (QB) or 55 touches (RB/WR/TE), so the league average carries about half or more of the line's efficiency; ⚠ = low-sample / rookie (archetype-driven). A designation like Q · 60% means the line is weighted by that play probability; BYE rows project 0 and are kept visible.

Replacement level (VORP is measured against these): QB12 C.J. Stroud · 16.9 pts · RB29 RJ Harvey · 6.6 pts · WR41 Dontayvion Wicks · 5.5 pts · TE13 Mark Andrews · 4.9 pts

#	Player	Pos	Tm	Opp	Status	Pts	VORP	Tgt	Rec	RecYd	RecTD	Car	RuYd	RuTD
1	Bijan Robinson	RB	ATL	vs CHI		16.7	+10.1	5.1	4.0	35.8	0.2	17.0	88.5	0.6
2	Jonathan Taylor	RB	IND	vs TEN		15.7	+9.1	3.7	2.9	23.9	0.1	16.9	82.0	0.7
3	Kyren Williams	RB	LA	vs ARI		14.1	+7.4	4.1	3.1	24.3	0.2	14.8	71.2	0.6
4	James Cook	RB	BUF	@ LV		13.6	+7.0	2.9	2.3	17.9	0.1	17.0	77.9	0.6
5	Kenneth Walker III ⚠	RB	KC	vs LAC		13.5	+6.9	4.8	3.9	30.1	0.1	15.6	68.6	0.5
6	Dameon Pierce thin prior (48 touches)	RB	PHI	vs CAR		13.0	+6.3	2.9	2.2	17.8	0.1	16.7	76.4	0.5
7	Derrick Henry	RB	BAL	@ CLE		12.1	+5.4	2.0	1.6	8.8	0.0	19.3	73.1	0.6
8	Bucky Irving	RB	TB	vs PIT		11.4	+4.8	3.6	2.9	24.2	0.1	13.9	61.8	0.4
9	Christian McCaffrey	RB	SF	vs WAS		11.3	+4.6	4.9	3.9	31.1	0.2	12.4	48.2	0.4
10	Javonte Williams	RB	DAL	@ GB		10.9	+4.2	3.6	2.7	16.4	0.1	14.5	59.7	0.5
11	Bhayshul Tuten thin prior (42 touches)	RB	JAX	vs HOU		10.6	+4.0	2.8	2.2	16.3	0.1	13.3	54.3	0.5
12	MarShawn Lloyd thin prior (2 touches)	RB	GB	vs DAL		10.4	+3.8	2.6	2.0	16.2	0.1	12.5	58.6	0.4
13	D'Andre Swift	RB	CHI	@ ATL		10.3	+3.6	3.1	2.4	17.9	0.1	13.6	57.1	0.4
14	Ashton Jeanty	RB	LV	vs BUF		10.2	+3.6	4.1	3.2	22.3	0.2	12.5	51.2	0.3
15	Jaylen Warren	RB	PIT	@ TB		9.8	+3.1	4.0	3.3	22.7	0.1	13.1	51.5	0.3
16	Cam Skattebo thin prior (50 touches)	RB	NYG	vs NO		9.7	+3.1	2.5	1.9	15.3	0.1	11.8	51.1	0.4
17	Emanuel Wilson ⚠	RB	SEA	@ DEN		9.6	+3.0	2.3	1.8	11.6	0.1	14.4	57.4	0.4
18	Chuba Hubbard	RB	CAR	@ PHI		9.4	+2.8	2.7	2.2	13.0	0.1	14.5	56.0	0.4
19	Rachaad White ⚠	RB	WAS	@ SF		9.4	+2.8	2.6	2.2	15.0	0.1	13.5	53.6	0.4
20	J.K. Dobbins	RB	DEN	vs SEA		9.4	+2.8	2.1	1.6	10.2	0.1	12.8	56.6	0.4
21	Rhamondre Stevenson	RB	NE	vs NYJ		9.3	+2.6	3.3	2.6	20.8	0.1	10.6	44.5	0.4
22	Braelon Allen thin prior (37 touches)	RB	NYJ	@ NE		9.1	+2.5	2.6	2.0	14.6	0.1	12.9	50.4	0.4
23	Tyler Allgeier ⚠	RB	ARI	@ LA		9.0	+2.4	2.7	2.2	15.3	0.1	12.2	46.6	0.4
24	Tony Pollard	RB	TEN	@ IND		8.4	+1.8	2.6	2.0	12.1	0.1	14.2	52.5	0.3
25	Omarion Hampton	RB	LAC	@ KC		8.1	+1.5	2.2	1.8	11.8	0.1	11.0	46.1	0.3
26	Kendre Miller thin prior (43 touches)	RB	NO	@ NYG		8.0	+1.3	2.2	1.7	12.9	0.1	10.3	44.7	0.3
27	Jaleel McLaughlin ⚠	RB	CLE	vs BAL		7.5	+0.9	2.4	1.9	12.9	0.1	9.6	43.1	0.2
28	Woody Marks	RB	HOU	@ JAX		7.3	+0.6	2.5	1.9	14.1	0.1	10.8	40.0	0.2
29	RJ Harvey	RB	DEN	vs SEA		6.6	+0.0	3.7	2.9	22.1	0.2	5.7	22.8	0.2
30	Brian Robinson ⚠	RB	ATL	vs CHI		6.2	-0.4	1.2	0.9	7.0	0.0	8.4	37.1	0.3
31	Keaton Mitchell thin prior (43 touches)	RB	LAC	@ KC		6.1	-0.5	2.5	2.0	14.4	0.1	6.5	32.1	0.2
32	Audric Estimé thin prior (46 touches)	RB	CLE	vs BAL		6.1	-0.6	1.7	1.3	10.2	0.0	8.2	34.4	0.2
33	Blake Corum	RB	LA	vs ARI		6.0	-0.6	1.6	1.2	9.3	0.0	7.0	34.2	0.2
34	Pierre Strong thin prior (20 touches)	RB	GB	vs DAL		5.7	-0.9	1.9	1.5	11.1	0.1	7.0	31.2	0.2
35	Kenny Gainwell ⚠	RB	TB	vs PIT		5.5	-1.1	2.6	2.1	15.0	0.1	5.7	25.1	0.2
36	Jawhar Jordan thin prior (22 touches)	RB	HOU	@ JAX		5.2	-1.5	1.4	1.1	7.8	0.0	7.4	30.6	0.2
37	Tyler Goodson thin prior (17 touches)	RB	DAL	@ GB		5.1	-1.5	1.5	1.1	8.0	0.0	7.0	29.2	0.2
38	Chris Rodriguez Jr. ⚠	RB	JAX	vs HOU		5.0	-1.7	0.9	0.7	4.9	0.0	6.6	28.6	0.2
39	Carson Steele thin prior (17 touches)	RB	PHI	vs CAR		4.9	-1.7	1.0	0.8	6.2	0.0	6.6	30.0	0.2
40	Kaelon Black thin prior (0 touches)	RB	SF	vs WAS		4.8	-1.8	0.9	0.6	5.1	0.0	7.3	29.5	0.2
41	Alvin Kamara	RB	NO	@ NYG	Q · 66%	4.8	-1.8	2.4	1.9	11.3	0.0	7.1	24.9	0.2
42	Corey Kiner thin prior (6 touches)	RB	NE	vs NYJ		4.5	-2.1	0.9	0.7	5.5	0.0	5.8	27.2	0.2
43	TreVeyon Henderson	RB	NE	vs NYJ	Q · 66%	4.5	-2.1	0.8	0.6	4.8	0.0	5.1	26.2	0.2
44	George Holani thin prior (12 touches)	RB	SEA	@ DEN		4.4	-2.2	2.0	1.6	10.7	0.1	5.6	21.3	0.2
45	Roschon Johnson thin prior (34 touches)	RB	CHI	@ ATL		4.4	-2.2	1.9	1.5	11.0	0.1	4.9	19.5	0.2
46	Austin Ekeler	RB	WAS	@ SF		3.9	-2.8	1.3	1.0	6.7	0.0	6.3	21.3	0.2
47	Ty Johnson thin prior (43 touches)	RB	BUF	@ LV		3.9	-2.8	2.7	2.0	16.0	0.1	3.2	11.9	0.1
48	Justice Hill thin prior (40 touches)	RB	BAL	@ CLE		3.8	-2.9	1.7	1.4	8.4	0.0	4.8	18.5	0.1
49	Emmett Johnson thin prior (0 touches)	RB	KC	vs LAC		3.8	-2.9	1.6	1.1	8.4	0.0	4.9	18.9	0.1
50	Mike Washington Jr. thin prior (0 touches)	RB	LV	vs BUF		3.7	-3.0	1.0	0.7	5.3	0.0	5.2	21.2	0.2
51	Kaleb Johnson thin prior (14 touches)	RB	GB	vs DAL		3.7	-3.0	0.5	0.4	3.2	0.0	5.4	22.9	0.2
52	Rico Dowdle ⚠	RB	PIT	@ TB	Q · 72%	3.6	-3.0	1.4	1.1	7.6	0.0	5.2	20.1	0.1
53	Bam Knight thin prior (42 touches)	RB	ARI	@ LA		3.5	-3.1	1.0	0.8	5.3	0.0	4.9	18.6	0.2
54	Seth McGowan thin prior (0 touches)	RB	IND	vs TEN		3.5	-3.1	1.2	0.8	6.9	0.0	4.6	18.4	0.1
55	Trevor Etienne thin prior (10 touches)	RB	CAR	@ PHI	Q · 72%	3.4	-3.2	1.1	0.9	6.0	0.0	4.7	18.9	0.1
56	Tyjae Spears	RB	TEN	@ IND	Q · 72%	3.4	-3.3	1.9	1.6	11.0	0.0	3.4	13.8	0.1
57	Isaiah Davis thin prior (30 touches)	RB	NYJ	@ NE		3.3	-3.4	0.9	0.7	5.7	0.0	4.0	18.7	0.1
58	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	RB	NYG	vs NO		3.1	-3.5	1.1	0.8	6.2	0.0	4.1	17.5	0.1
59	Kimani Vidal	RB	LAC	@ KC		3.1	-3.5	1.5	1.1	8.4	0.0	3.6	14.7	0.1
60	CJ Donaldson thin prior (0 touches)	RB	NO	@ NYG		2.9	-3.8	1.2	0.8	6.0	0.0	3.8	14.9	0.1
61	Devin Singletary	RB	NYG	vs NO		2.8	-3.8	1.2	1.0	6.7	0.0	3.7	13.4	0.1
62	Najee Harris ⚠	RB	NYG	vs NO		2.8	-3.9	0.4	0.3	2.2	0.0	4.5	17.6	0.1
63	Anthony Tyus III thin prior (0 touches)	RB	CAR	@ PHI		2.3	-4.3	0.9	0.6	4.1	0.0	3.6	12.7	0.1
64	Travis Homer thin prior (2 touches)	RB	PIT	@ TB		2.3	-4.3	0.6	0.5	3.3	0.0	3.6	13.3	0.1
65	Jaydon Blue thin prior (19 touches)	RB	PHI	vs CAR		2.3	-4.4	0.5	0.4	3.2	0.0	2.9	13.1	0.1
66	Tyler Badie thin prior (16 touches)	RB	DEN	vs SEA		2.1	-4.5	1.2	0.9	6.6	0.0	2.1	9.0	0.1
67	Evan Hull thin prior (10 touches)	RB	ARI	@ LA		2.1	-4.5	0.6	0.5	3.5	0.0	3.0	11.6	0.1
68	Josh Williams thin prior (2 touches)	RB	TB	vs PIT		1.9	-4.8	0.5	0.4	3.2	0.0	2.3	10.2	0.1
69	Zavier Scott thin prior (16 touches)	RB	CHI	@ ATL		1.8	-4.8	0.5	0.4	2.9	0.0	2.7	10.6	0.1
70	Jordan James thin prior (0 touches)	RB	SF	vs WAS		1.8	-4.8	0.4	0.3	2.3	0.0	2.4	10.5	0.1
71	DJ Giddens thin prior (13 touches)	RB	IND	vs TEN		1.8	-4.9	0.7	0.5	4.4	0.0	2.0	8.6	0.1
72	Dare Ogunbowale thin prior (16 touches)	RB	HOU	@ JAX		1.7	-5.0	0.6	0.5	2.8	0.0	3.0	9.1	0.1
73	Ray Davis	RB	BUF	@ LV		1.6	-5.0	0.6	0.5	3.7	0.0	2.1	8.3	0.0
74	Velus Jones Jr. thin prior (2 touches)	RB	SEA	@ DEN		1.6	-5.0	0.5	0.3	3.4	0.0	2.0	8.1	0.1
75	Julius Chestnut thin prior (12 touches)	RB	TEN	@ IND		1.6	-5.0	0.6	0.4	3.2	0.0	2.1	8.5	0.1
76	LeQuint Allen Jr. thin prior (12 touches)	RB	JAX	vs HOU		1.5	-5.2	1.0	0.8	5.6	0.0	1.3	5.3	0.0
77	Kene Nwangwu thin prior (8 touches)	RB	NYJ	@ NE		1.4	-5.2	0.4	0.3	2.1	0.0	2.2	8.4	0.1
78	Michael Carter ⚠	RB	TEN	@ IND		1.4	-5.3	1.0	0.8	5.6	0.0	1.2	4.8	0.0
79	Brashard Smith thin prior (22 touches)	RB	KC	vs LAC		1.2	-5.4	0.7	0.5	3.9	0.0	1.3	5.4	0.0
80	Dylan Laube thin prior (4 touches)	RB	LV	vs BUF		1.2	-5.4	0.5	0.4	3.1	0.0	1.4	5.8	0.0
81	Lew Nichols III thin prior (0 touches)	RB	PIT	@ TB		1.2	-5.5	0.6	0.5	3.6	0.0	1.2	4.9	0.0
82	Ameer Abdullah thin prior (30 touches)	RB	JAX	vs HOU		1.1	-5.5	0.7	0.6	3.0	0.0	1.5	5.0	0.0
83	Dean Connors thin prior (0 touches)	RB	LA	vs ARI		1.1	-5.6	0.4	0.3	2.0	0.0	1.4	5.7	0.0
84	Rasheen Ali thin prior (6 touches)	RB	BAL	@ CLE		1.0	-5.6	0.2	0.2	1.3	0.0	1.5	6.1	0.0
85	Robert Henry Jr. thin prior (0 touches)	RB	SEA	@ DEN		0.8	-5.9	0.6	0.4	2.8	0.0	0.8	2.8	0.0
86	Chase Brown	RB	CIN	BYE	BYE	0.0	-6.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
87	Samaje Perine	RB	CIN	BYE	BYE	0.0	-6.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
88	Tahj Brooks thin prior (8 touches)	RB	CIN	BYE	BYE	0.0	-6.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
89	Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	DET	BYE	BYE	0.0	-6.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
90	Sione Vaki thin prior (2 touches)	RB	DET	BYE	BYE	0.0	-6.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
91	Jacob Saylors thin prior (1 touches)	RB	DET	BYE	BYE	0.0	-6.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
92	Isiah Pacheco ⚠	RB	DET	BYE	BYE	0.0	-6.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
93	Ollie Gordon II thin prior (35 touches)	RB	MIA	BYE	BYE	0.0	-6.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
94	Jaylen Wright	RB	MIA	BYE	BYE	0.0	-6.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
95	Kaytron Allen thin prior (0 touches)	RB	MIA	BYE	BYE	0.0	-6.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
96	De'Von Achane	RB	MIA	BYE	BYE	0.0	-6.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
97	Aaron Jones	RB	MIN	BYE	BYE	0.0	-6.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
98	DeeJay Dallas thin prior (6 touches)	RB	MIN	BYE	BYE	0.0	-6.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
99	Demond Claiborne thin prior (0 touches)	RB	MIN	BYE	BYE	0.0	-6.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
100	Jordan Mason	RB	MIN	BYE	BYE	0.0	-6.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

VORP = this player's points minus the points of the last startable player at his position (hover the VORP cell to see who). Baseline rank = teams × starters, with FLEX split RB/WR/TE 45/45/10.

Known limitations

Thin priors over-projected QBs. Efficiency comes from 2023–25, regressed toward the league average by sample size. Over Weeks 1–4, QB1s whose prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted dropbacks were projected +3.9 PPR a game too high (9 QBs; established QB1s +0.1). Those rows carry a thin prior chip. From Week 7 (model n8-v3) a QB's passing rates also read his own 2026 dropbacks, weighted against the prior's sample plus a fixed anchor, so a few snaps barely move them. On Weeks 5–6 this halved the thin-QB bias. Rushing rates and the game lines still use the prior: the game-level check of the same change failed.
Team pass volume is a 2023–25 prior too; in-season, only player shares blend toward what is observed. Blending team volume in-season was tested twice and lost to the prior both times.