NFL Player Projections

Week 8 — opponent-adjusted (this week's defence, home/away), availability-weighted, byes zeroed. Components (volume × efficiency) with scoring applied as a view. Model n8-v3 · updated 3h ago.

Week: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8• Season Position: All QB RB WR TE

Scoring: PPR Half Standard DK Rank by: VORP Points ⬇ CSV

League & scoring settings — server-side, from your stored component projections; the URL is the saved config

110 players · ranked by VORP under ppr scoring, 12-team league (1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1FLEX). thin prior (n) = the efficiency prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted 2023–25 dropbacks (QB) or 55 touches (RB/WR/TE), so the league average carries about half or more of the line's efficiency; ⚠ = low-sample / rookie (archetype-driven). A designation like Q · 60% means the line is weighted by that play probability; BYE rows project 0 and are kept visible.

Replacement level (VORP is measured against these): QB12 Sam Darnold · 16.8 pts · RB29 RJ Harvey · 8.2 pts · WR41 Xavier Worthy · 8.6 pts · TE13 Hunter Henry · 8.1 pts

#	Player	Pos	Tm	Opp	Status	Pts	VORP	Tgt	Rec	RecYd	RecTD	Car	RuYd	RuTD
1	Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	DET	vs MIN		23.3	+15.1	4.9	3.9	30.0	0.2	19.2	98.2	0.9
2	Bijan Robinson	RB	ATL	@ TB		17.9	+9.7	4.7	3.6	30.4	0.1	16.9	76.1	0.5
3	Kyren Williams	RB	LA	vs LAC		16.6	+8.4	4.4	3.4	24.3	0.2	14.1	65.6	0.6
4	James Cook	RB	BUF	vs BAL		16.2	+8.1	2.5	2.0	16.3	0.1	17.5	83.5	0.7
5	Chase Brown	RB	CIN	vs TEN		16.2	+8.0	4.8	3.8	29.1	0.2	13.1	60.0	0.4
6	Jonathan Taylor	RB	IND	@ JAX		15.9	+7.7	3.0	2.4	17.4	0.1	16.5	73.5	0.7
7	Kenneth Walker III ⚠	RB	KC	@ DEN		15.6	+7.4	4.3	3.5	24.5	0.1	15.6	63.5	0.5
8	Javonte Williams	RB	DAL	vs ARI		14.3	+6.2	3.0	2.3	15.6	0.1	15.1	68.5	0.5
9	Jaylen Warren	RB	PIT	vs CLE		14.0	+5.8	3.8	3.1	21.3	0.1	13.8	60.8	0.4
10	Bucky Irving	RB	TB	vs ATL		13.8	+5.6	3.4	2.8	24.1	0.1	13.0	58.7	0.3
11	Bhayshul Tuten thin prior (42 touches)	RB	JAX	vs IND		13.2	+5.0	2.8	2.2	17.6	0.1	13.2	55.9	0.5
12	Ashton Jeanty	RB	LV	@ NYJ		12.9	+4.7	4.2	3.3	23.1	0.2	12.3	46.1	0.3
13	Derrick Henry	RB	BAL	@ BUF		12.9	+4.7	1.8	1.4	8.2	0.0	17.6	69.7	0.6
14	Chuba Hubbard	RB	CAR	@ GB		12.4	+4.2	2.8	2.2	14.2	0.1	15.2	60.3	0.4
15	Josh Jacobs	RB	GB	vs CAR		12.2	+4.0	3.1	2.5	19.7	0.1	10.6	45.6	0.5
16	Saquon Barkley	RB	PHI	@ WAS		11.6	+3.4	2.1	1.6	11.0	0.1	14.9	61.7	0.4
17	Breece Hall	RB	NYJ	vs LV		11.4	+3.2	2.8	2.2	18.9	0.1	11.5	51.8	0.3
18	D'Andre Swift	RB	CHI	@ SEA		11.4	+3.2	3.4	2.6	18.4	0.1	11.4	45.9	0.3
19	Rhamondre Stevenson	RB	NE	@ MIA		11.3	+3.1	3.4	2.7	19.9	0.1	10.5	40.6	0.3
20	Zach Charbonnet	RB	SEA	vs CHI		11.1	+2.9	2.8	2.2	17.3	0.1	9.2	40.8	0.4
21	Rachaad White ⚠	RB	WAS	vs PHI		11.1	+2.9	3.0	2.5	17.3	0.1	11.0	44.9	0.3
22	Tony Pollard	RB	TEN	@ CIN		10.9	+2.7	2.5	1.9	11.9	0.0	14.5	56.5	0.3
23	Quinshon Judkins	RB	CLE	@ PIT		10.7	+2.5	3.3	2.5	17.5	0.1	11.1	40.3	0.3
24	Ollie Gordon II thin prior (35 touches)	RB	MIA	vs NE		10.4	+2.2	2.3	1.8	13.7	0.1	11.5	44.1	0.4
25	J.K. Dobbins	RB	DEN	vs KC		10.0	+1.8	2.0	1.6	10.1	0.1	10.8	49.6	0.4
26	Omarion Hampton	RB	LAC	@ LA		9.7	+1.5	2.2	1.8	11.6	0.1	10.9	45.0	0.3
27	Jeremiyah Love thin prior (0 touches)	RB	ARI	@ DAL		9.6	+1.4	2.7	1.9	13.9	0.1	10.9	41.5	0.3
28	Jordan Mason	RB	MIN	@ DET		8.3	+0.1	2.2	1.7	11.2	0.1	8.3	36.9	0.3
29	RJ Harvey	RB	DEN	vs KC		8.2	+0.0	3.5	2.8	21.2	0.1	3.8	15.9	0.1
30	Jaydon Blue thin prior (19 touches)	RB	PHI	@ WAS		8.2	-0.0	1.3	1.0	7.7	0.0	10.7	43.4	0.3
31	Emanuel Wilson ⚠	RB	SEA	vs CHI		8.0	-0.2	1.3	1.0	7.2	0.0	9.7	43.2	0.3
32	Braelon Allen thin prior (37 touches)	RB	NYJ	vs LV		8.0	-0.2	2.0	1.6	12.4	0.1	8.0	33.4	0.3
33	Rico Dowdle ⚠	RB	PIT	vs CLE		8.0	-0.2	2.5	2.0	13.1	0.1	7.4	32.5	0.2
34	Aaron Jones	RB	MIN	@ DET		7.8	-0.4	2.7	2.0	11.2	0.1	10.2	33.0	0.2
35	Blake Corum	RB	LA	vs LAC		7.7	-0.5	1.7	1.3	9.2	0.0	7.9	37.3	0.3
36	MarShawn Lloyd thin prior (2 touches)	RB	GB	vs CAR		7.5	-0.7	1.5	1.2	9.7	0.1	7.4	35.5	0.3
37	Keaton Mitchell thin prior (43 touches)	RB	LAC	@ LA		7.2	-1.0	2.1	1.7	11.9	0.1	6.2	30.2	0.2
38	TreVeyon Henderson	RB	NE	@ MIA		7.2	-1.0	1.3	1.1	7.7	0.0	7.4	34.5	0.3
39	Kenny Gainwell ⚠	RB	TB	vs ATL		6.9	-1.3	2.3	1.8	13.4	0.1	5.3	23.6	0.2
40	Tyler Allgeier ⚠	RB	ARI	@ DAL		6.8	-1.4	1.8	1.5	10.9	0.1	6.3	25.7	0.2
41	Tyler Goodson thin prior (17 touches)	RB	DAL	vs ARI		6.5	-1.6	1.4	1.1	8.5	0.0	6.7	30.9	0.2
42	Kyle Monangai	RB	CHI	@ SEA		6.5	-1.7	1.4	1.1	7.7	0.0	7.5	31.8	0.2
43	Tyjae Spears	RB	TEN	@ CIN		6.4	-1.8	2.5	2.0	14.8	0.1	4.1	17.3	0.1
44	Brian Robinson ⚠	RB	ATL	@ TB		6.3	-1.9	1.2	1.0	7.0	0.0	8.0	30.7	0.2
45	Chris Rodriguez Jr. ⚠	RB	JAX	vs IND		6.1	-2.1	0.9	0.7	5.2	0.0	7.0	31.6	0.3
46	Jonah Coleman thin prior (0 touches)	RB	DEN	vs KC		6.1	-2.1	1.7	1.1	8.6	0.0	6.9	27.0	0.2
47	Trevor Etienne thin prior (10 touches)	RB	CAR	@ GB		5.3	-2.9	1.4	1.1	7.6	0.0	5.5	23.0	0.2
48	Samaje Perine	RB	CIN	vs TEN		5.3	-2.9	1.6	1.3	9.6	0.0	5.0	19.9	0.1
49	Ty Johnson thin prior (43 touches)	RB	BUF	vs BAL		5.2	-3.0	2.2	1.7	14.0	0.1	2.9	11.3	0.1
50	Justice Hill thin prior (40 touches)	RB	BAL	@ BUF		4.9	-3.3	1.9	1.5	9.6	0.1	3.8	15.3	0.1
51	Pierre Strong thin prior (20 touches)	RB	GB	vs CAR		4.8	-3.4	1.6	1.2	9.4	0.0	3.7	17.0	0.1
52	Kimani Vidal	RB	LAC	@ LA		4.6	-3.6	1.6	1.2	8.9	0.1	4.0	16.0	0.1
53	Emmett Johnson thin prior (0 touches)	RB	KC	@ DEN		4.4	-3.8	1.8	1.2	8.5	0.0	4.1	14.7	0.1
54	Dylan Sampson thin prior (32 touches)	RB	CLE	@ PIT		4.4	-3.8	1.5	1.2	8.6	0.0	4.2	15.0	0.1
55	Austin Ekeler	RB	WAS	vs PHI		4.4	-3.8	1.4	1.1	7.4	0.0	4.8	16.6	0.1
56	Sione Vaki thin prior (2 touches)	RB	DET	vs MIN		4.3	-3.9	1.0	0.8	5.8	0.0	4.6	19.4	0.1
57	Mike Washington Jr. thin prior (0 touches)	RB	LV	@ NYJ		4.3	-3.9	1.0	0.7	5.0	0.0	5.7	21.0	0.2
58	George Holani thin prior (12 touches)	RB	SEA	vs CHI		4.0	-4.2	1.4	1.1	8.0	0.0	3.1	13.3	0.1
59	Bam Knight thin prior (42 touches)	RB	ARI	@ DAL		3.9	-4.3	1.1	0.8	6.1	0.0	3.7	14.7	0.1
60	Jaylen Wright	RB	MIA	vs NE		3.8	-4.4	0.7	0.6	4.3	0.0	4.7	20.0	0.1
61	Seth McGowan thin prior (0 touches)	RB	IND	@ JAX		3.7	-4.5	0.9	0.6	4.5	0.0	4.9	17.9	0.1
62	Roschon Johnson thin prior (34 touches)	RB	CHI	@ SEA		3.7	-4.5	1.4	1.1	7.4	0.0	2.8	10.9	0.1
63	Corey Kiner thin prior (6 touches)	RB	NE	@ MIA		3.0	-5.2	0.4	0.3	2.5	0.0	3.9	16.6	0.1
64	Jeremy McNichols thin prior (38 touches)	RB	WAS	vs PHI		2.9	-5.3	0.5	0.4	2.6	0.0	3.9	14.9	0.1
65	Sean Tucker	RB	TB	vs ATL		2.9	-5.3	0.4	0.3	2.3	0.0	3.2	14.3	0.1
66	Kaleb Johnson thin prior (14 touches)	RB	GB	vs CAR		2.7	-5.5	0.4	0.3	2.7	0.0	3.2	14.0	0.1
67	Jaleel McLaughlin ⚠	RB	CLE	@ PIT		2.6	-5.6	0.9	0.7	4.7	0.0	2.1	9.2	0.1
68	Isaiah Davis thin prior (30 touches)	RB	NYJ	vs LV		2.3	-5.9	0.7	0.6	4.8	0.0	1.6	7.8	0.1
69	Kaytron Allen thin prior (0 touches)	RB	MIA	vs NE		2.2	-6.0	0.3	0.2	1.8	0.0	3.2	12.5	0.1
70	LeQuint Allen Jr. thin prior (12 touches)	RB	JAX	vs IND		2.1	-6.1	0.8	0.7	5.1	0.0	1.2	5.4	0.0
71	Ray Davis	RB	BUF	vs BAL		2.1	-6.1	0.6	0.5	3.6	0.0	2.0	8.1	0.0
72	DJ Giddens thin prior (13 touches)	RB	IND	@ JAX		1.9	-6.3	0.6	0.4	3.1	0.0	1.9	7.8	0.1
73	Jaydn Ott thin prior (0 touches)	RB	KC	@ DEN		1.9	-6.3	0.6	0.4	3.0	0.0	2.2	7.7	0.1
74	Audric Estimé thin prior (46 touches)	RB	CLE	@ PIT		1.8	-6.4	0.5	0.4	2.8	0.0	1.9	7.8	0.1
75	Velus Jones Jr. thin prior (2 touches)	RB	SEA	vs CHI		1.6	-6.6	0.4	0.3	3.6	0.0	1.3	5.8	0.0
76	Anthony Tyus III thin prior (0 touches)	RB	CAR	@ GB		1.5	-6.7	0.4	0.3	1.8	0.0	2.0	7.3	0.1
77	Demond Claiborne thin prior (0 touches)	RB	MIN	@ DET		1.5	-6.7	0.5	0.4	2.5	0.0	1.6	5.9	0.0
78	Ameer Abdullah thin prior (30 touches)	RB	JAX	vs IND		1.5	-6.7	0.6	0.5	2.7	0.0	1.3	4.7	0.0
79	Dylan Laube thin prior (4 touches)	RB	LV	@ NYJ		1.4	-6.8	0.5	0.4	2.9	0.0	1.2	4.8	0.0
80	Tahj Brooks thin prior (8 touches)	RB	CIN	vs TEN		1.4	-6.8	0.3	0.3	2.2	0.0	1.4	6.1	0.0
81	Travis Homer thin prior (2 touches)	RB	PIT	vs CLE		1.4	-6.8	0.3	0.2	1.4	0.0	1.7	6.9	0.1
82	Dean Connors thin prior (0 touches)	RB	LA	vs LAC		1.3	-6.9	0.4	0.3	2.0	0.0	1.4	5.5	0.0
83	Nicholas Singleton thin prior (0 touches)	RB	TEN	@ CIN		1.3	-6.9	0.4	0.2	1.9	0.0	1.4	5.5	0.0
84	Evan Hull thin prior (10 touches)	RB	ARI	@ DAL		1.2	-7.0	0.6	0.5	3.4	0.0	0.6	2.3	0.0
85	Rasheen Ali thin prior (6 touches)	RB	BAL	@ BUF		1.1	-7.1	0.2	0.1	1.1	0.0	1.4	5.9	0.0
86	Jacob Saylors thin prior (1 touches)	RB	DET	vs MIN		1.0	-7.2	0.2	0.2	1.3	0.0	1.1	4.6	0.0
87	Julius Chestnut thin prior (12 touches)	RB	TEN	@ CIN		0.9	-7.3	0.2	0.2	1.4	0.0	0.9	3.9	0.0
88	Zavier Scott thin prior (16 touches)	RB	CHI	@ SEA		0.8	-7.4	0.4	0.3	2.0	0.0	0.4	1.7	0.0
89	Lew Nichols III thin prior (0 touches)	RB	PIT	vs CLE		0.8	-7.4	0.3	0.2	1.5	0.0	0.6	2.5	0.0
90	Kene Nwangwu thin prior (8 touches)	RB	NYJ	vs LV		0.6	-7.6	0.3	0.2	1.7	0.0	0.3	1.3	0.0
91	Michael Carter	RB	TEN	@ CIN		0.5	-7.7	0.2	0.1	1.1	0.0	0.5	1.9	0.0
92	David Montgomery ⚠	RB	HOU	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
93	Woody Marks	RB	HOU	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
94	Emari Demercado thin prior (41 touches)	RB	HOU	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
95	Dare Ogunbowale thin prior (16 touches)	RB	HOU	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
96	British Brooks thin prior (9 touches)	RB	HOU	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
97	Alvin Kamara	RB	NO	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
98	Kendre Miller thin prior (43 touches)	RB	NO	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
99	CJ Donaldson thin prior (0 touches)	RB	NO	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
100	Travis Etienne ⚠	RB	NO	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
101	Ty Chandler thin prior (46 touches)	RB	NO	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
102	Cam Skattebo thin prior (50 touches)	RB	NYG	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
103	Devin Singletary	RB	NYG	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
104	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	RB	NYG	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
105	Eli Heidenreich thin prior (0 touches)	RB	PIT	vs CLE		0.0	-8.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
106	Robert Henry Jr. thin prior (0 touches)	RB	SEA	vs CHI		0.0	-8.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
107	Christian McCaffrey	RB	SF	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
108	Kaelon Black thin prior (0 touches)	RB	SF	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
109	Jordan James thin prior (0 touches)	RB	SF	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
110	Isaac Guerendo thin prior (25 touches)	RB	SF	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

VORP = this player's points minus the points of the last startable player at his position (hover the VORP cell to see who). Baseline rank = teams × starters, with FLEX split RB/WR/TE 45/45/10.

Known limitations

Thin priors over-projected QBs. Efficiency comes from 2023–25, regressed toward the league average by sample size. Over Weeks 1–4, QB1s whose prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted dropbacks were projected +3.9 PPR a game too high (9 QBs; established QB1s +0.1). Those rows carry a thin prior chip. From Week 7 (model n8-v3) a QB's passing rates also read his own 2026 dropbacks, weighted against the prior's sample plus a fixed anchor, so a few snaps barely move them. On Weeks 5–6 this halved the thin-QB bias. Rushing rates and the game lines still use the prior: the game-level check of the same change failed.
Team pass volume is a 2023–25 prior too; in-season, only player shares blend toward what is observed. Blending team volume in-season was tested twice and lost to the prior both times.