NFL Player Projections

Week 8 — opponent-adjusted (this week's defence, home/away), availability-weighted, byes zeroed. Components (volume × efficiency) with scoring applied as a view. Model n8-v3 · updated 4h ago.

Week: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8• Season Position: All QB RB WR TE

Scoring: PPR Half Standard DK Rank by: VORP Points ⬇ CSV

League & scoring settings — server-side, from your stored component projections; the URL is the saved config

110 players · ranked by VORP under half_ppr scoring, 12-team league (1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1FLEX). thin prior (n) = the efficiency prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted 2023–25 dropbacks (QB) or 55 touches (RB/WR/TE), so the league average carries about half or more of the line's efficiency; ⚠ = low-sample / rookie (archetype-driven). A designation like Q · 60% means the line is weighted by that play probability; BYE rows project 0 and are kept visible.

Replacement level (VORP is measured against these): QB12 Sam Darnold · 16.8 pts · RB29 Emanuel Wilson · 7.5 pts · WR41 Ryan Flournoy · 6.9 pts · TE13 Hunter Henry · 6.5 pts

#	Player	Pos	Tm	Opp	Status	Pts	VORP	Tgt	Rec	RecYd	RecTD	Car	RuYd	RuTD
1	Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	DET	vs MIN		21.3	+13.8	4.9	3.9	30.0	0.2	19.2	98.2	0.9
2	Bijan Robinson	RB	ATL	@ TB		16.1	+8.6	4.7	3.6	30.4	0.1	16.9	76.1	0.5
3	James Cook	RB	BUF	vs BAL		15.2	+7.7	2.5	2.0	16.3	0.1	17.5	83.5	0.7
4	Kyren Williams	RB	LA	vs LAC		14.9	+7.4	4.4	3.4	24.3	0.2	14.1	65.6	0.6
5	Jonathan Taylor	RB	IND	@ JAX		14.7	+7.2	3.0	2.4	17.4	0.1	16.5	73.5	0.7
6	Chase Brown	RB	CIN	vs TEN		14.3	+6.8	4.8	3.8	29.1	0.2	13.1	60.0	0.4
7	Kenneth Walker III ⚠	RB	KC	@ DEN		13.8	+6.3	4.3	3.5	24.5	0.1	15.6	63.5	0.5
8	Javonte Williams	RB	DAL	vs ARI		13.2	+5.7	3.0	2.3	15.6	0.1	15.1	68.5	0.5
9	Jaylen Warren	RB	PIT	vs CLE		12.4	+4.9	3.8	3.1	21.3	0.1	13.8	60.8	0.4
10	Bucky Irving	RB	TB	vs ATL		12.4	+4.8	3.4	2.8	24.1	0.1	13.0	58.7	0.3
11	Derrick Henry	RB	BAL	@ BUF		12.2	+4.7	1.8	1.4	8.2	0.0	17.6	69.7	0.6
12	Bhayshul Tuten thin prior (42 touches)	RB	JAX	vs IND		12.1	+4.6	2.8	2.2	17.6	0.1	13.2	55.9	0.5
13	Chuba Hubbard	RB	CAR	@ GB		11.3	+3.8	2.8	2.2	14.2	0.1	15.2	60.3	0.4
14	Ashton Jeanty	RB	LV	@ NYJ		11.3	+3.7	4.2	3.3	23.1	0.2	12.3	46.1	0.3
15	Josh Jacobs	RB	GB	vs CAR		11.0	+3.5	3.1	2.5	19.7	0.1	10.6	45.6	0.5
16	Saquon Barkley	RB	PHI	@ WAS		10.8	+3.3	2.1	1.6	11.0	0.1	14.9	61.7	0.4
17	Breece Hall	RB	NYJ	vs LV		10.3	+2.8	2.8	2.2	18.9	0.1	11.5	51.8	0.3
18	D'Andre Swift	RB	CHI	@ SEA		10.1	+2.5	3.4	2.6	18.4	0.1	11.4	45.9	0.3
19	Zach Charbonnet	RB	SEA	vs CHI		10.0	+2.4	2.8	2.2	17.3	0.1	9.2	40.8	0.4
20	Rhamondre Stevenson	RB	NE	@ MIA		9.9	+2.4	3.4	2.7	19.9	0.1	10.5	40.6	0.3
21	Tony Pollard	RB	TEN	@ CIN		9.9	+2.4	2.5	1.9	11.9	0.0	14.5	56.5	0.3
22	Rachaad White ⚠	RB	WAS	vs PHI		9.8	+2.3	3.0	2.5	17.3	0.1	11.0	44.9	0.3
23	Ollie Gordon II thin prior (35 touches)	RB	MIA	vs NE		9.5	+2.0	2.3	1.8	13.7	0.1	11.5	44.1	0.4
24	Quinshon Judkins	RB	CLE	@ PIT		9.5	+1.9	3.3	2.5	17.5	0.1	11.1	40.3	0.3
25	J.K. Dobbins	RB	DEN	vs KC		9.2	+1.6	2.0	1.6	10.1	0.1	10.8	49.6	0.4
26	Omarion Hampton	RB	LAC	@ LA		8.8	+1.3	2.2	1.8	11.6	0.1	10.9	45.0	0.3
27	Jeremiyah Love thin prior (0 touches)	RB	ARI	@ DAL		8.6	+1.1	2.7	1.9	13.9	0.1	10.9	41.5	0.3
28	Jaydon Blue thin prior (19 touches)	RB	PHI	@ WAS		7.7	+0.1	1.3	1.0	7.7	0.0	10.7	43.4	0.3
29	Emanuel Wilson ⚠	RB	SEA	vs CHI		7.5	+0.0	1.3	1.0	7.2	0.0	9.7	43.2	0.3
30	Jordan Mason	RB	MIN	@ DET		7.4	-0.1	2.2	1.7	11.2	0.1	8.3	36.9	0.3
31	Braelon Allen thin prior (37 touches)	RB	NYJ	vs LV		7.2	-0.3	2.0	1.6	12.4	0.1	8.0	33.4	0.3
32	Blake Corum	RB	LA	vs LAC		7.1	-0.5	1.7	1.3	9.2	0.0	7.9	37.3	0.3
33	Rico Dowdle ⚠	RB	PIT	vs CLE		7.0	-0.6	2.5	2.0	13.1	0.1	7.4	32.5	0.2
34	MarShawn Lloyd thin prior (2 touches)	RB	GB	vs CAR		6.9	-0.6	1.5	1.2	9.7	0.1	7.4	35.5	0.3
35	RJ Harvey	RB	DEN	vs KC		6.8	-0.7	3.5	2.8	21.2	0.1	3.8	15.9	0.1
36	Aaron Jones	RB	MIN	@ DET		6.8	-0.8	2.7	2.0	11.2	0.1	10.2	33.0	0.2
37	TreVeyon Henderson	RB	NE	@ MIA		6.6	-0.9	1.3	1.1	7.7	0.0	7.4	34.5	0.3
38	Keaton Mitchell thin prior (43 touches)	RB	LAC	@ LA		6.3	-1.2	2.1	1.7	11.9	0.1	6.2	30.2	0.2
39	Tyler Allgeier ⚠	RB	ARI	@ DAL		6.0	-1.5	1.8	1.5	10.9	0.1	6.3	25.7	0.2
40	Kenny Gainwell ⚠	RB	TB	vs ATL		6.0	-1.5	2.3	1.8	13.4	0.1	5.3	23.6	0.2
41	Tyler Goodson thin prior (17 touches)	RB	DAL	vs ARI		6.0	-1.5	1.4	1.1	8.5	0.0	6.7	30.9	0.2
42	Kyle Monangai	RB	CHI	@ SEA		6.0	-1.6	1.4	1.1	7.7	0.0	7.5	31.8	0.2
43	Chris Rodriguez Jr. ⚠	RB	JAX	vs IND		5.8	-1.7	0.9	0.7	5.2	0.0	7.0	31.6	0.3
44	Brian Robinson ⚠	RB	ATL	@ TB		5.8	-1.8	1.2	1.0	7.0	0.0	8.0	30.7	0.2
45	Jonah Coleman thin prior (0 touches)	RB	DEN	vs KC		5.5	-2.0	1.7	1.1	8.6	0.0	6.9	27.0	0.2
46	Tyjae Spears	RB	TEN	@ CIN		5.4	-2.1	2.5	2.0	14.8	0.1	4.1	17.3	0.1
47	Trevor Etienne thin prior (10 touches)	RB	CAR	@ GB		4.7	-2.8	1.4	1.1	7.6	0.0	5.5	23.0	0.2
48	Samaje Perine	RB	CIN	vs TEN		4.6	-2.9	1.6	1.3	9.6	0.0	5.0	19.9	0.1
49	Ty Johnson thin prior (43 touches)	RB	BUF	vs BAL		4.4	-3.2	2.2	1.7	14.0	0.1	2.9	11.3	0.1
50	Justice Hill thin prior (40 touches)	RB	BAL	@ BUF		4.2	-3.3	1.9	1.5	9.6	0.1	3.8	15.3	0.1
51	Pierre Strong thin prior (20 touches)	RB	GB	vs CAR		4.2	-3.4	1.6	1.2	9.4	0.0	3.7	17.0	0.1
52	Mike Washington Jr. thin prior (0 touches)	RB	LV	@ NYJ		4.0	-3.6	1.0	0.7	5.0	0.0	5.7	21.0	0.2
53	Kimani Vidal	RB	LAC	@ LA		4.0	-3.6	1.6	1.2	8.9	0.1	4.0	16.0	0.1
54	Sione Vaki thin prior (2 touches)	RB	DET	vs MIN		3.9	-3.6	1.0	0.8	5.8	0.0	4.6	19.4	0.1
55	Austin Ekeler	RB	WAS	vs PHI		3.9	-3.7	1.4	1.1	7.4	0.0	4.8	16.6	0.1
56	Dylan Sampson thin prior (32 touches)	RB	CLE	@ PIT		3.8	-3.7	1.5	1.2	8.6	0.0	4.2	15.0	0.1
57	Emmett Johnson thin prior (0 touches)	RB	KC	@ DEN		3.8	-3.7	1.8	1.2	8.5	0.0	4.1	14.7	0.1
58	Jaylen Wright	RB	MIA	vs NE		3.6	-4.0	0.7	0.6	4.3	0.0	4.7	20.0	0.1
59	George Holani thin prior (12 touches)	RB	SEA	vs CHI		3.5	-4.0	1.4	1.1	8.0	0.0	3.1	13.3	0.1
60	Bam Knight thin prior (42 touches)	RB	ARI	@ DAL		3.4	-4.1	1.1	0.8	6.1	0.0	3.7	14.7	0.1
61	Seth McGowan thin prior (0 touches)	RB	IND	@ JAX		3.4	-4.1	0.9	0.6	4.5	0.0	4.9	17.9	0.1
62	Roschon Johnson thin prior (34 touches)	RB	CHI	@ SEA		3.2	-4.4	1.4	1.1	7.4	0.0	2.8	10.9	0.1
63	Corey Kiner thin prior (6 touches)	RB	NE	@ MIA		2.8	-4.7	0.4	0.3	2.5	0.0	3.9	16.6	0.1
64	Sean Tucker	RB	TB	vs ATL		2.7	-4.8	0.4	0.3	2.3	0.0	3.2	14.3	0.1
65	Jeremy McNichols thin prior (38 touches)	RB	WAS	vs PHI		2.7	-4.9	0.5	0.4	2.6	0.0	3.9	14.9	0.1
66	Kaleb Johnson thin prior (14 touches)	RB	GB	vs CAR		2.5	-5.0	0.4	0.3	2.7	0.0	3.2	14.0	0.1
67	Jaleel McLaughlin ⚠	RB	CLE	@ PIT		2.2	-5.3	0.9	0.7	4.7	0.0	2.1	9.2	0.1
68	Kaytron Allen thin prior (0 touches)	RB	MIA	vs NE		2.1	-5.4	0.3	0.2	1.8	0.0	3.2	12.5	0.1
69	Isaiah Davis thin prior (30 touches)	RB	NYJ	vs LV		2.0	-5.6	0.7	0.6	4.8	0.0	1.6	7.8	0.1
70	Ray Davis	RB	BUF	vs BAL		1.8	-5.7	0.6	0.5	3.6	0.0	2.0	8.1	0.0
71	LeQuint Allen Jr. thin prior (12 touches)	RB	JAX	vs IND		1.8	-5.8	0.8	0.7	5.1	0.0	1.2	5.4	0.0
72	DJ Giddens thin prior (13 touches)	RB	IND	@ JAX		1.7	-5.8	0.6	0.4	3.1	0.0	1.9	7.8	0.1
73	Jaydn Ott thin prior (0 touches)	RB	KC	@ DEN		1.7	-5.8	0.6	0.4	3.0	0.0	2.2	7.7	0.1
74	Audric Estimé thin prior (46 touches)	RB	CLE	@ PIT		1.6	-5.9	0.5	0.4	2.8	0.0	1.9	7.8	0.1
75	Velus Jones Jr. thin prior (2 touches)	RB	SEA	vs CHI		1.4	-6.1	0.4	0.3	3.6	0.0	1.3	5.8	0.0
76	Anthony Tyus III thin prior (0 touches)	RB	CAR	@ GB		1.4	-6.1	0.4	0.3	1.8	0.0	2.0	7.3	0.1
77	Demond Claiborne thin prior (0 touches)	RB	MIN	@ DET		1.3	-6.2	0.5	0.4	2.5	0.0	1.6	5.9	0.0
78	Tahj Brooks thin prior (8 touches)	RB	CIN	vs TEN		1.3	-6.2	0.3	0.3	2.2	0.0	1.4	6.1	0.0
79	Travis Homer thin prior (2 touches)	RB	PIT	vs CLE		1.3	-6.3	0.3	0.2	1.4	0.0	1.7	6.9	0.1
80	Ameer Abdullah thin prior (30 touches)	RB	JAX	vs IND		1.3	-6.3	0.6	0.5	2.7	0.0	1.3	4.7	0.0
81	Dylan Laube thin prior (4 touches)	RB	LV	@ NYJ		1.2	-6.3	0.5	0.4	2.9	0.0	1.2	4.8	0.0
82	Dean Connors thin prior (0 touches)	RB	LA	vs LAC		1.2	-6.4	0.4	0.3	2.0	0.0	1.4	5.5	0.0
83	Nicholas Singleton thin prior (0 touches)	RB	TEN	@ CIN		1.1	-6.4	0.4	0.2	1.9	0.0	1.4	5.5	0.0
84	Rasheen Ali thin prior (6 touches)	RB	BAL	@ BUF		1.1	-6.5	0.2	0.1	1.1	0.0	1.4	5.9	0.0
85	Evan Hull thin prior (10 touches)	RB	ARI	@ DAL		1.0	-6.5	0.6	0.5	3.4	0.0	0.6	2.3	0.0
86	Jacob Saylors thin prior (1 touches)	RB	DET	vs MIN		0.9	-6.6	0.2	0.2	1.3	0.0	1.1	4.6	0.0
87	Julius Chestnut thin prior (12 touches)	RB	TEN	@ CIN		0.8	-6.7	0.2	0.2	1.4	0.0	0.9	3.9	0.0
88	Lew Nichols III thin prior (0 touches)	RB	PIT	vs CLE		0.7	-6.9	0.3	0.2	1.5	0.0	0.6	2.5	0.0
89	Zavier Scott thin prior (16 touches)	RB	CHI	@ SEA		0.7	-6.9	0.4	0.3	2.0	0.0	0.4	1.7	0.0
90	Kene Nwangwu thin prior (8 touches)	RB	NYJ	vs LV		0.5	-7.0	0.3	0.2	1.7	0.0	0.3	1.3	0.0
91	Michael Carter	RB	TEN	@ CIN		0.5	-7.1	0.2	0.1	1.1	0.0	0.5	1.9	0.0
92	David Montgomery ⚠	RB	HOU	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
93	Woody Marks	RB	HOU	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
94	Emari Demercado thin prior (41 touches)	RB	HOU	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
95	Dare Ogunbowale thin prior (16 touches)	RB	HOU	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
96	British Brooks thin prior (9 touches)	RB	HOU	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
97	Alvin Kamara	RB	NO	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
98	Kendre Miller thin prior (43 touches)	RB	NO	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
99	CJ Donaldson thin prior (0 touches)	RB	NO	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
100	Travis Etienne ⚠	RB	NO	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
101	Ty Chandler thin prior (46 touches)	RB	NO	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
102	Cam Skattebo thin prior (50 touches)	RB	NYG	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
103	Devin Singletary	RB	NYG	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
104	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	RB	NYG	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
105	Eli Heidenreich thin prior (0 touches)	RB	PIT	vs CLE		0.0	-7.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
106	Robert Henry Jr. thin prior (0 touches)	RB	SEA	vs CHI		0.0	-7.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
107	Christian McCaffrey	RB	SF	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
108	Kaelon Black thin prior (0 touches)	RB	SF	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
109	Jordan James thin prior (0 touches)	RB	SF	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
110	Isaac Guerendo thin prior (25 touches)	RB	SF	BYE	BYE	0.0	-7.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

VORP = this player's points minus the points of the last startable player at his position (hover the VORP cell to see who). Baseline rank = teams × starters, with FLEX split RB/WR/TE 45/45/10.

Known limitations

Thin priors over-projected QBs. Efficiency comes from 2023–25, regressed toward the league average by sample size. Over Weeks 1–4, QB1s whose prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted dropbacks were projected +3.9 PPR a game too high (9 QBs; established QB1s +0.1). Those rows carry a thin prior chip. From Week 7 (model n8-v3) a QB's passing rates also read his own 2026 dropbacks, weighted against the prior's sample plus a fixed anchor, so a few snaps barely move them. On Weeks 5–6 this halved the thin-QB bias. Rushing rates and the game lines still use the prior: the game-level check of the same change failed.
Team pass volume is a 2023–25 prior too; in-season, only player shares blend toward what is observed. Blending team volume in-season was tested twice and lost to the prior both times.