NFL Player Projections

Week 5 — opponent-adjusted (this week's defence, home/away), availability-weighted, byes zeroed. Components (volume × efficiency) with scoring applied as a view. Model n8-v2 · updated 18d ago.

Week: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8• Season Position: All QB RB WR TE

Scoring: PPR Half Standard DK Rank by: VORP Points ⬇ CSV

League & scoring settings — server-side, from your stored component projections; the URL is the saved config

101 players · ranked by VORP under half_ppr scoring, 12-team league (1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1FLEX). thin prior (n) = the efficiency prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted 2023–25 dropbacks (QB) or 55 touches (RB/WR/TE), so the league average carries about half or more of the line's efficiency; ⚠ = low-sample / rookie (archetype-driven). A designation like Q · 60% means the line is weighted by that play probability; BYE rows project 0 and are kept visible.

Replacement level (VORP is measured against these): QB12 Brock Purdy · 17.8 pts · RB29 RJ Harvey · 8.3 pts · WR41 Devaughn Vele · 7.4 pts · TE13 Dalton Schultz · 6.9 pts

#	Player	Pos	Tm	Opp	Status	Pts	VORP	Tgt	Rec	RecYd	RecTD	Car	RuYd	RuTD
1	Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	DET	@ ARI		20.5	+12.2	4.8	3.8	30.5	0.2	18.3	92.9	0.9
2	Bijan Robinson	RB	ATL	vs BAL		17.5	+9.2	5.0	3.9	34.2	0.2	16.8	81.9	0.5
3	Jonathan Taylor	RB	IND	@ PIT		15.3	+7.0	3.4	2.7	19.3	0.1	16.9	74.5	0.7
4	Kyren Williams	RB	LA	vs BUF		15.2	+6.9	4.0	3.1	22.2	0.2	14.5	70.5	0.6
5	James Cook	RB	BUF	@ LA		14.8	+6.6	3.2	2.6	18.8	0.1	16.6	76.6	0.6
6	Jaylen Warren	RB	PIT	vs IND		13.5	+5.3	3.8	3.1	23.4	0.1	15.2	67.4	0.4
7	Chase Brown	RB	CIN	@ MIA		13.4	+5.2	4.5	3.6	25.2	0.2	14.0	58.6	0.4
8	Derrick Henry	RB	BAL	@ ATL		13.2	+4.9	2.1	1.7	10.2	0.0	19.3	74.0	0.6
9	Javonte Williams	RB	DAL	vs TB		12.6	+4.4	3.8	2.9	18.9	0.1	14.1	59.6	0.5
10	Bucky Irving	RB	TB	@ DAL		12.5	+4.2	3.6	2.9	23.8	0.1	13.6	59.4	0.3
11	D'Andre Swift	RB	CHI	@ GB		11.8	+3.6	3.0	2.3	17.0	0.1	14.6	60.9	0.4
12	Christian McCaffrey	RB	SF	@ SEA		11.6	+3.4	5.2	4.1	27.0	0.2	12.1	40.4	0.3
13	MarShawn Lloyd thin prior (2 touches)	RB	GB	vs CHI		11.5	+3.2	2.7	2.2	16.9	0.1	12.7	57.8	0.4
14	Cam Skattebo thin prior (50 touches)	RB	NYG	@ WAS		11.3	+3.1	2.7	2.1	16.8	0.1	12.6	53.6	0.5
15	Bhayshul Tuten thin prior (42 touches)	RB	JAX	vs PHI		11.2	+2.9	2.8	2.2	16.4	0.1	12.3	50.8	0.5
16	Emanuel Wilson ⚠	RB	SEA	vs SF		11.2	+2.9	2.3	1.8	13.1	0.1	13.7	60.7	0.4
17	Jacory Croskey-Merritt	RB	WAS	vs NYG		11.1	+2.8	2.3	1.8	14.5	0.1	11.2	56.3	0.5
18	TreVeyon Henderson	RB	NE	vs LV		11.1	+2.8	2.4	1.9	14.6	0.1	11.2	55.4	0.5
19	David Montgomery ⚠	RB	HOU	@ TEN		10.9	+2.7	2.3	1.8	13.3	0.1	13.5	52.4	0.5
20	Quinshon Judkins	RB	CLE	@ NYJ		10.9	+2.7	3.7	2.9	21.1	0.1	12.3	46.0	0.4
21	Jeremiyah Love thin prior (0 touches)	RB	ARI	vs DET		10.0	+1.8	3.2	2.2	16.7	0.1	12.3	47.6	0.3
22	Braelon Allen thin prior (37 touches)	RB	NYJ	vs CLE		10.0	+1.8	2.5	2.0	14.0	0.1	12.0	50.3	0.4
23	Ollie Gordon II thin prior (35 touches)	RB	MIA	vs CIN		9.9	+1.7	2.8	2.2	17.0	0.1	10.6	42.8	0.4
24	Omarion Hampton	RB	LAC	vs DEN		9.9	+1.6	2.4	2.0	13.5	0.1	11.4	50.2	0.4
25	Tony Pollard	RB	TEN	vs HOU		9.7	+1.4	2.9	2.2	13.2	0.1	13.8	52.5	0.3
26	J.K. Dobbins	RB	DEN	@ LAC		9.4	+1.1	2.1	1.6	9.5	0.0	12.2	51.8	0.4
27	Aaron Jones	RB	MIN	@ NO		9.2	+0.9	3.8	2.9	16.1	0.1	13.4	43.1	0.2
28	Kendre Miller thin prior (43 touches)	RB	NO	vs MIN		8.3	+0.1	2.3	1.8	13.3	0.1	9.6	40.3	0.3
29	RJ Harvey	RB	DEN	@ LAC		8.3	+0.0	3.9	3.1	21.7	0.1	6.2	23.8	0.2
30	Will Shipley thin prior (16 touches)	RB	PHI	@ JAX		8.0	-0.3	2.3	1.8	13.3	0.1	9.6	38.1	0.3
31	Mike Washington Jr. thin prior (0 touches)	RB	LV	@ NE		7.9	-0.4	2.4	1.7	12.2	0.1	10.6	38.4	0.3
32	Keaton Mitchell thin prior (43 touches)	RB	LAC	vs DEN		7.4	-0.8	2.3	1.8	13.7	0.1	7.0	36.1	0.2
33	Rhamondre Stevenson	RB	NE	vs LV	Q · 66%	7.2	-1.0	2.6	2.0	15.8	0.1	6.9	28.3	0.2
34	Rachaad White ⚠	RB	WAS	vs NYG		7.2	-1.1	2.1	1.7	12.9	0.1	7.4	33.0	0.2
35	Dameon Pierce thin prior (48 touches)	RB	PHI	@ JAX		6.7	-1.6	1.5	1.1	8.0	0.0	9.2	36.6	0.2
36	Blake Corum	RB	LA	vs BUF		6.6	-1.7	1.4	1.1	7.9	0.0	7.2	35.5	0.2
37	Tyler Allgeier ⚠	RB	ARI	vs DET		6.5	-1.8	1.9	1.6	11.8	0.1	6.7	27.7	0.2
38	Kenny Gainwell ⚠	RB	TB	@ DAL		6.4	-1.9	2.4	2.0	13.4	0.1	6.0	26.0	0.2
39	Brian Robinson ⚠	RB	ATL	vs BAL		6.4	-1.9	1.2	1.0	7.1	0.0	8.5	34.9	0.3
40	Pierre Strong thin prior (20 touches)	RB	GB	vs CHI		6.1	-2.2	1.6	1.2	8.7	0.0	7.3	31.9	0.2
41	Tyler Goodson thin prior (17 touches)	RB	DAL	vs TB		6.0	-2.2	1.5	1.2	8.8	0.0	7.2	30.6	0.2
42	Alvin Kamara	RB	NO	vs MIN	Q · 66%	5.9	-2.4	2.4	1.9	11.1	0.0	7.7	25.8	0.2
43	Chris Rodriguez Jr. ⚠	RB	JAX	vs PHI		5.7	-2.6	0.8	0.7	4.7	0.0	7.2	31.5	0.3
44	Woody Marks	RB	HOU	@ TEN		5.4	-2.9	1.6	1.2	9.5	0.1	7.0	26.1	0.1
45	Tyjae Spears	RB	TEN	vs HOU		5.1	-3.1	1.9	1.5	10.7	0.0	5.0	20.7	0.2
46	Raheim Sanders thin prior (14 touches)	RB	CLE	@ NYJ		5.1	-3.2	2.3	1.8	13.8	0.1	4.1	16.7	0.1
47	Najee Harris ⚠	RB	NYG	@ WAS		5.0	-3.2	0.9	0.7	4.8	0.0	7.5	29.3	0.2
48	Ty Johnson thin prior (43 touches)	RB	BUF	@ LA		4.7	-3.6	2.3	1.8	13.1	0.1	3.8	14.1	0.1
49	Ashton Jeanty	RB	LV	@ NE	Q · 43%	4.7	-3.6	1.8	1.4	9.5	0.1	5.1	18.9	0.1
50	Roschon Johnson thin prior (34 touches)	RB	CHI	@ GB		4.6	-3.7	1.2	0.9	6.7	0.0	5.3	21.0	0.2
51	Kaelon Black thin prior (0 touches)	RB	SF	@ SEA		4.5	-3.8	1.0	0.7	4.9	0.0	7.1	24.8	0.2
52	Justice Hill thin prior (40 touches)	RB	BAL	@ ATL		4.5	-3.8	1.5	1.2	8.2	0.0	5.0	19.5	0.2
53	Sione Vaki thin prior (2 touches)	RB	DET	@ ARI		4.5	-3.8	1.3	1.0	7.6	0.0	5.0	21.0	0.2
54	Travis Homer thin prior (2 touches)	RB	PIT	vs IND		4.3	-4.0	0.9	0.7	5.2	0.0	5.6	23.1	0.2
55	Isaiah Davis thin prior (30 touches)	RB	NYJ	vs CLE		4.0	-4.2	0.8	0.7	5.0	0.0	4.5	22.3	0.1
56	Samaje Perine	RB	CIN	@ MIA		3.9	-4.4	1.7	1.3	9.0	0.0	4.2	15.1	0.1
57	Velus Jones Jr. thin prior (2 touches)	RB	SEA	vs SF		3.9	-4.4	0.9	0.6	7.3	0.0	4.0	18.2	0.1
58	Kaleb Johnson thin prior (14 touches)	RB	GB	vs CHI		3.7	-4.6	0.6	0.5	3.6	0.0	5.1	21.1	0.1
59	George Holani thin prior (12 touches)	RB	SEA	vs SF	Q · 66%	3.7	-4.6	1.2	0.9	6.8	0.0	3.8	16.1	0.1
60	DeeJay Dallas thin prior (6 touches)	RB	MIN	@ NO		3.5	-4.7	1.2	0.9	6.1	0.0	4.1	16.1	0.1
61	Kimani Vidal	RB	LAC	vs DEN		3.5	-4.8	1.4	1.0	8.1	0.0	3.3	14.1	0.1
62	Seth McGowan thin prior (0 touches)	RB	IND	@ PIT		3.5	-4.8	1.2	0.8	5.6	0.0	4.6	16.5	0.1
63	Corey Kiner thin prior (6 touches)	RB	NE	vs LV		3.4	-4.9	0.8	0.6	5.0	0.0	3.9	17.4	0.1
64	Kaytron Allen thin prior (0 touches)	RB	MIA	vs CIN		3.2	-5.1	0.5	0.3	2.6	0.0	4.6	19.0	0.1
65	CJ Donaldson thin prior (0 touches)	RB	NO	vs MIN		3.0	-5.3	1.1	0.8	5.4	0.0	3.6	13.7	0.1
66	Sean Tucker	RB	TB	@ DAL		2.9	-5.3	0.5	0.4	3.1	0.0	3.3	14.5	0.1
67	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	RB	NYG	@ WAS		2.8	-5.4	0.6	0.4	3.4	0.0	3.9	16.4	0.1
68	Zavier Scott thin prior (16 touches)	RB	CHI	@ GB		2.6	-5.6	0.6	0.5	3.6	0.0	3.6	14.1	0.1
69	Jaylen Wright	RB	MIA	vs CIN	Q · 66%	2.6	-5.6	0.6	0.4	3.4	0.0	3.2	14.5	0.1
70	Austin Ekeler	RB	WAS	vs NYG		2.6	-5.7	0.9	0.7	4.8	0.0	3.0	11.7	0.1
71	Tyler Badie thin prior (16 touches)	RB	DEN	@ LAC		2.5	-5.8	1.2	0.9	6.0	0.0	2.3	9.3	0.1
72	Carson Steele thin prior (17 touches)	RB	PHI	@ JAX		2.4	-5.8	0.6	0.5	3.2	0.0	3.3	13.1	0.1
73	Kene Nwangwu thin prior (8 touches)	RB	NYJ	vs CLE		2.1	-6.1	0.5	0.4	2.6	0.0	2.8	11.4	0.1
74	Bam Knight thin prior (42 touches)	RB	ARI	vs DET		2.0	-6.2	0.5	0.4	3.2	0.0	2.3	9.4	0.1
75	Roman Hemby thin prior (0 touches)	RB	LV	@ NE		2.0	-6.2	1.4	0.9	6.7	0.0	1.3	4.8	0.0
76	Jaleel McLaughlin ⚠	RB	CLE	@ NYJ		2.0	-6.3	0.6	0.5	3.2	0.0	2.3	10.1	0.1
77	Jordan James thin prior (0 touches)	RB	SF	@ SEA		2.0	-6.3	0.5	0.4	2.4	0.0	2.8	10.4	0.1
78	Lew Nichols III thin prior (0 touches)	RB	PIT	vs IND		1.9	-6.4	0.4	0.3	2.6	0.0	2.2	9.8	0.1
79	LeQuint Allen Jr. thin prior (12 touches)	RB	JAX	vs PHI		1.9	-6.4	0.9	0.7	5.0	0.0	1.5	6.2	0.0
80	Dylan Laube thin prior (4 touches)	RB	LV	@ NE		1.9	-6.4	0.7	0.5	3.7	0.0	2.1	8.0	0.1
81	Ray Davis	RB	BUF	@ LA		1.8	-6.5	0.6	0.5	3.2	0.0	2.1	8.5	0.1
82	DJ Giddens thin prior (13 touches)	RB	IND	@ PIT		1.8	-6.5	0.6	0.5	3.4	0.0	2.0	7.8	0.1
83	Demond Claiborne thin prior (0 touches)	RB	MIN	@ NO		1.7	-6.6	0.5	0.4	2.5	0.0	2.3	8.3	0.1
84	Robert Henry Jr. thin prior (0 touches)	RB	SEA	vs SF		1.6	-6.6	0.9	0.6	4.8	0.0	1.2	5.0	0.0
85	Carlos Washington thin prior (0 touches)	RB	MIA	vs CIN		1.6	-6.7	0.8	0.6	4.6	0.0	1.3	5.2	0.0
86	Ameer Abdullah thin prior (30 touches)	RB	JAX	vs PHI		1.6	-6.7	0.8	0.7	3.6	0.0	1.6	5.7	0.0
87	Dare Ogunbowale thin prior (16 touches)	RB	HOU	@ TEN		1.6	-6.7	0.6	0.5	2.9	0.0	2.1	6.6	0.1
88	Dean Connors thin prior (0 touches)	RB	LA	vs BUF		1.4	-6.9	0.4	0.3	2.2	0.0	1.7	6.8	0.0
89	Rasheen Ali thin prior (6 touches)	RB	BAL	@ ATL		1.3	-6.9	0.3	0.2	1.7	0.0	1.7	7.2	0.1
90	Tahj Brooks thin prior (8 touches)	RB	CIN	@ MIA		1.3	-6.9	0.5	0.4	2.7	0.0	1.4	5.6	0.0
91	Jacob Saylors thin prior (1 touches)	RB	DET	@ ARI		1.2	-7.1	0.3	0.2	1.8	0.0	1.3	5.7	0.0
92	Julius Chestnut thin prior (12 touches)	RB	TEN	vs HOU		1.1	-7.2	0.3	0.2	1.7	0.0	1.2	5.3	0.0
93	Kalel Mullings thin prior (2 touches)	RB	TEN	vs HOU		1.1	-7.2	0.6	0.4	3.2	0.0	0.7	3.1	0.0
94	Chuba Hubbard	RB	CAR	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
95	AJ Dillon thin prior (42 touches)	RB	CAR	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
96	Trevor Etienne thin prior (10 touches)	RB	CAR	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
97	Jonathon Brooks thin prior (3 touches)	RB	CAR	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
98	Kenneth Walker III ⚠	RB	KC	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
99	Emmett Johnson thin prior (0 touches)	RB	KC	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
100	Brashard Smith thin prior (22 touches)	RB	KC	BYE	BYE	0.0	-8.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
101	Michael Carter	RB	TEN	vs HOU		0.0	-8.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

VORP = this player's points minus the points of the last startable player at his position (hover the VORP cell to see who). Baseline rank = teams × starters, with FLEX split RB/WR/TE 45/45/10.

Known limitations

Thin priors over-projected QBs. Efficiency comes from 2023–25, regressed toward the league average by sample size. Over Weeks 1–4, QB1s whose prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted dropbacks were projected +3.9 PPR a game too high (9 QBs; established QB1s +0.1). Those rows carry a thin prior chip. From Week 7 (model n8-v3) a QB's passing rates also read his own 2026 dropbacks, weighted against the prior's sample plus a fixed anchor, so a few snaps barely move them. On Weeks 5–6 this halved the thin-QB bias. Rushing rates and the game lines still use the prior: the game-level check of the same change failed.
Team pass volume is a 2023–25 prior too; in-season, only player shares blend toward what is observed. Blending team volume in-season was tested twice and lost to the prior both times.