NFL Player Projections

Week 4 — opponent-adjusted (this week's defence, home/away), availability-weighted, byes zeroed. Components (volume × efficiency) with scoring applied as a view. Model n8-v2 · updated 25d ago.

Week: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8• Season Position: All QB RB WR TE

Scoring: PPR Half Standard DK Rank by: VORP Points ⬇ CSV

League & scoring settings — server-side, from your stored component projections; the URL is the saved config

94 players · ranked by VORP under half_ppr scoring, 12-team league (1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1FLEX). thin prior (n) = the efficiency prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted 2023–25 dropbacks (QB) or 55 touches (RB/WR/TE), so the league average carries about half or more of the line's efficiency; ⚠ = low-sample / rookie (archetype-driven). A designation like Q · 60% means the line is weighted by that play probability; BYE rows project 0 and are kept visible.

Replacement level (VORP is measured against these): QB12 Dak Prescott · 17.4 pts · RB29 Braelon Allen · 9.1 pts · WR41 Khalil Shakir · 7.7 pts · TE13 Cade Otton · 7.3 pts

#	Player	Pos	Tm	Opp	Status	Pts	VORP	Tgt	Rec	RecYd	RecTD	Car	RuYd	RuTD
1	Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	DET	@ CAR		20.5	+11.4	4.9	3.9	31.3	0.2	17.3	92.1	0.9
2	Bijan Robinson	RB	ATL	@ NO		17.1	+8.0	5.2	4.0	32.9	0.2	17.0	79.7	0.5
3	Jonathan Taylor	RB	IND	@ WAS		17.0	+7.9	3.4	2.7	21.0	0.1	18.3	84.2	0.8
4	James Cook	RB	BUF	vs NE		15.5	+6.4	2.8	2.3	18.9	0.1	16.6	82.2	0.6
5	Kenneth Walker III ⚠	RB	KC	@ LV		14.2	+5.1	4.8	3.9	29.3	0.1	14.9	60.8	0.4
6	Chase Brown	RB	CIN	vs JAX		13.7	+4.6	4.1	3.2	23.5	0.2	14.1	63.4	0.4
7	Bucky Irving	RB	TB	vs GB		13.3	+4.2	4.0	3.3	27.8	0.1	13.4	60.1	0.4
8	Derrick Henry	RB	BAL	vs TEN		13.2	+4.0	2.2	1.7	11.7	0.1	17.3	72.1	0.6
9	Christian McCaffrey	RB	SF	vs DEN		13.1	+4.0	5.0	4.0	28.0	0.2	13.6	49.7	0.4
10	D'Andre Swift	RB	CHI	vs NYJ		12.8	+3.7	3.1	2.4	20.0	0.1	14.2	64.9	0.5
11	David Montgomery ⚠	RB	HOU	vs DAL		12.6	+3.5	2.8	2.2	16.8	0.1	13.6	58.4	0.6
12	Kyren Williams	RB	LA	@ PHI		12.5	+3.4	3.3	2.5	16.3	0.1	14.1	60.1	0.5
13	Jaylen Warren	RB	PIT	@ CLE		12.1	+2.9	3.5	2.9	18.1	0.1	15.2	62.3	0.4
14	Cam Skattebo thin prior (50 touches)	RB	NYG	vs ARI		11.8	+2.6	3.0	2.3	19.3	0.1	11.9	53.5	0.5
15	Chuba Hubbard	RB	CAR	vs DET		11.7	+2.6	3.1	2.4	16.2	0.1	14.2	60.2	0.4
16	Ashton Jeanty	RB	LV	vs KC		11.4	+2.3	4.0	3.1	21.9	0.2	12.3	48.9	0.3
17	Saquon Barkley	RB	PHI	vs LA		11.3	+2.1	2.8	2.1	14.2	0.1	14.1	59.9	0.4
18	Javonte Williams	RB	DAL	@ HOU		11.1	+2.0	3.7	2.8	16.0	0.1	13.1	51.9	0.4
19	Bhayshul Tuten thin prior (42 touches)	RB	JAX	@ CIN		11.0	+1.9	2.9	2.2	17.2	0.1	11.6	48.6	0.5
20	Jacory Croskey-Merritt	RB	WAS	vs IND		10.8	+1.7	2.0	1.6	12.6	0.1	12.2	57.3	0.5
21	Emanuel Wilson ⚠	RB	SEA	vs LAC		10.7	+1.6	2.0	1.6	11.3	0.1	13.8	59.4	0.4
22	Quinshon Judkins	RB	CLE	vs PIT		10.3	+1.2	3.2	2.4	18.0	0.1	11.8	46.2	0.4
23	Jeremiyah Love thin prior (0 touches)	RB	ARI	@ NYG		10.3	+1.2	3.5	2.4	17.6	0.1	12.3	48.0	0.3
24	Rhamondre Stevenson	RB	NE	@ BUF		10.0	+0.9	3.4	2.8	18.9	0.1	10.4	41.6	0.4
25	Omarion Hampton	RB	LAC	@ SEA		9.7	+0.6	2.5	2.0	13.0	0.1	12.2	49.1	0.4
26	J.K. Dobbins	RB	DEN	@ SF		9.6	+0.5	2.0	1.6	9.6	0.0	12.1	52.9	0.4
27	Alvin Kamara	RB	NO	vs ATL		9.5	+0.4	3.6	2.9	18.5	0.1	12.1	42.4	0.3
28	Aaron Jones	RB	MIN	vs MIA		9.3	+0.2	3.3	2.5	16.0	0.1	13.1	45.9	0.2
29	Braelon Allen thin prior (37 touches)	RB	NYJ	@ CHI		9.1	+0.0	2.8	2.1	15.4	0.1	10.5	42.2	0.3
30	Ollie Gordon II thin prior (35 touches)	RB	MIA	@ MIN		8.8	-0.3	2.8	2.2	14.1	0.1	11.1	38.0	0.3
31	Tony Pollard	RB	TEN	@ BAL		8.6	-0.6	2.7	2.1	12.0	0.1	12.9	45.6	0.3
32	Kaleb Johnson thin prior (14 touches)	RB	GB	@ TB		8.4	-0.7	2.3	1.8	12.9	0.1	11.5	41.4	0.3
33	MarShawn Lloyd thin prior (2 touches)	RB	GB	@ TB		7.3	-1.8	1.5	1.2	8.7	0.0	10.0	39.6	0.3
34	RJ Harvey	RB	DEN	@ SF		7.1	-2.0	3.0	2.3	17.2	0.1	5.8	22.9	0.2
35	TreVeyon Henderson	RB	NE	@ BUF		7.0	-2.1	1.2	0.9	6.3	0.0	8.1	39.0	0.3
36	Kenny Gainwell ⚠	RB	TB	vs GB		6.8	-2.3	2.4	2.0	13.9	0.1	6.4	28.4	0.2
37	Kyle Monangai	RB	CHI	vs NYJ		6.8	-2.3	1.4	1.1	9.1	0.0	7.6	36.4	0.2
38	Tyler Allgeier ⚠	RB	ARI	@ NYG		6.4	-2.7	1.9	1.5	11.3	0.1	6.7	27.7	0.2
39	Tyler Goodson thin prior (17 touches)	RB	DAL	@ HOU		6.1	-3.0	1.6	1.3	8.2	0.0	7.8	31.4	0.2
40	Keaton Mitchell thin prior (43 touches)	RB	LAC	@ SEA		6.1	-3.0	1.7	1.3	9.3	0.0	6.7	32.0	0.2
41	Chris Rodriguez Jr. ⚠	RB	JAX	@ CIN		6.0	-3.1	1.0	0.8	5.6	0.0	7.3	32.6	0.3
42	Blake Corum	RB	LA	@ PHI		6.0	-3.1	1.5	1.1	7.3	0.0	7.4	32.0	0.2
43	Woody Marks	RB	HOU	vs DAL		6.0	-3.2	1.8	1.3	10.9	0.1	6.9	28.5	0.2
44	Brian Robinson ⚠	RB	ATL	@ NO		5.8	-3.3	1.2	0.9	6.4	0.0	8.1	31.9	0.2
45	Kendre Miller thin prior (43 touches)	RB	NO	vs ATL		5.8	-3.3	1.4	1.1	9.2	0.0	6.5	28.5	0.2
46	Kaelon Black thin prior (0 touches)	RB	SF	vs DEN		5.7	-3.4	1.2	0.8	5.9	0.0	8.4	32.2	0.2
47	George Holani thin prior (12 touches)	RB	SEA	vs LAC		5.7	-3.5	1.8	1.4	10.2	0.1	6.1	25.1	0.2
48	Tank Bigsby	RB	PHI	vs LA		5.5	-3.6	1.4	1.0	7.9	0.0	5.8	27.8	0.2
49	Raheim Sanders thin prior (14 touches)	RB	CLE	vs PIT		5.5	-3.6	2.3	1.8	14.1	0.1	4.4	18.7	0.1
50	Najee Harris ⚠	RB	NYG	vs ARI		5.3	-3.8	1.0	0.8	5.9	0.0	7.3	30.0	0.2
51	Kaytron Allen thin prior (0 touches)	RB	WAS	vs IND		5.1	-4.0	0.9	0.6	5.0	0.0	7.5	29.1	0.2
52	Ty Johnson thin prior (43 touches)	RB	BUF	vs NE		5.0	-4.1	2.0	1.6	13.0	0.1	4.3	17.3	0.1
53	Sione Vaki thin prior (2 touches)	RB	DET	@ CAR		4.9	-4.2	1.2	1.0	7.5	0.0	5.5	24.4	0.2
54	Travis Homer thin prior (2 touches)	RB	PIT	@ CLE		4.8	-4.3	1.0	0.8	4.9	0.0	6.9	26.3	0.2
55	Justice Hill thin prior (40 touches)	RB	BAL	vs TEN		4.7	-4.4	1.3	1.0	8.1	0.0	5.0	21.5	0.2
56	AJ Dillon thin prior (42 touches)	RB	CAR	vs DET		4.7	-4.4	1.1	0.9	6.3	0.0	6.4	25.0	0.2
57	Isaiah Davis thin prior (30 touches)	RB	NYJ	@ CHI		4.6	-4.5	1.1	0.8	6.5	0.0	5.1	24.1	0.2
58	DeeJay Dallas thin prior (6 touches)	RB	MIN	vs MIA		4.4	-4.7	1.4	1.1	7.9	0.0	4.7	20.4	0.1
59	Samaje Perine	RB	CIN	vs JAX		4.4	-4.7	1.9	1.6	10.8	0.0	4.2	16.4	0.1
60	Emmett Johnson thin prior (0 touches)	RB	KC	@ LV		4.3	-4.8	1.5	1.1	7.7	0.0	5.5	19.8	0.1
61	Mike Washington Jr. thin prior (0 touches)	RB	LV	vs KC		4.0	-5.1	1.0	0.7	5.2	0.0	5.4	21.1	0.2
62	Seth McGowan thin prior (0 touches)	RB	IND	@ WAS		3.8	-5.3	1.1	0.7	5.7	0.0	4.9	18.7	0.1
63	Tyjae Spears	RB	TEN	@ BAL	Q · 72%	3.7	-5.4	1.5	1.2	8.0	0.0	3.8	14.6	0.1
64	Jaylen Wright	RB	MIA	@ MIN		3.6	-5.5	1.0	0.8	5.2	0.0	5.0	19.1	0.1
65	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	RB	NYG	vs ARI		3.3	-5.8	0.7	0.5	4.1	0.0	4.4	19.2	0.1
66	Sean Tucker	RB	TB	vs GB		3.2	-5.9	0.7	0.5	4.1	0.0	3.4	15.2	0.2
67	Chris Brooks thin prior (28 touches)	RB	GB	@ TB		3.1	-6.0	0.8	0.6	4.4	0.0	4.1	16.5	0.1
68	Will Shipley thin prior (16 touches)	RB	PHI	vs LA		3.1	-6.0	1.2	0.9	6.9	0.0	3.0	12.5	0.1
69	Kimani Vidal	RB	LAC	@ SEA		2.8	-6.3	1.0	0.8	5.8	0.0	3.1	12.3	0.1
70	Corey Kiner thin prior (6 touches)	RB	NE	@ BUF		2.6	-6.5	0.5	0.4	2.8	0.0	3.4	15.0	0.1
71	Kene Nwangwu thin prior (8 touches)	RB	NYJ	@ CHI		2.6	-6.5	0.7	0.5	3.7	0.0	3.4	13.2	0.1
72	Nicholas Singleton thin prior (0 touches)	RB	TEN	@ BAL		2.6	-6.5	0.8	0.5	3.7	0.0	3.8	13.1	0.1
73	Velus Jones Jr. thin prior (2 touches)	RB	SEA	vs LAC		2.5	-6.6	0.6	0.4	4.7	0.0	2.7	11.8	0.1
74	Tyler Badie thin prior (16 touches)	RB	DEN	@ SF		2.5	-6.6	1.1	0.8	5.7	0.0	2.3	9.7	0.1
75	Jaleel McLaughlin ⚠	RB	CLE	vs PIT		2.4	-6.8	0.7	0.6	3.8	0.0	2.5	11.8	0.1
76	Carlos Washington thin prior (0 touches)	RB	MIA	@ MIN		2.2	-6.9	0.7	0.5	3.0	0.0	3.3	11.4	0.1
77	Roschon Johnson thin prior (34 touches)	RB	CHI	vs NYJ		2.2	-6.9	0.5	0.4	3.4	0.0	2.3	10.0	0.1
78	LeQuint Allen Jr. thin prior (12 touches)	RB	JAX	@ CIN		2.2	-6.9	1.0	0.8	5.9	0.0	1.7	7.3	0.0
79	Austin Ekeler	RB	WAS	vs IND		2.1	-7.0	0.6	0.5	3.4	0.0	2.9	10.3	0.1
80	Bam Knight thin prior (42 touches)	RB	ARI	@ NYG		2.1	-7.0	0.5	0.4	3.1	0.0	2.3	9.5	0.1
81	Demond Claiborne thin prior (0 touches)	RB	MIN	vs MIA		2.0	-7.1	0.7	0.5	3.8	0.0	2.3	9.0	0.1
82	CJ Donaldson thin prior (0 touches)	RB	NO	vs ATL		2.0	-7.1	0.6	0.4	3.4	0.0	2.4	9.4	0.1
83	Ameer Abdullah thin prior (30 touches)	RB	JAX	@ CIN		1.8	-7.3	0.9	0.7	4.2	0.0	1.8	6.5	0.0
84	Dare Ogunbowale thin prior (16 touches)	RB	HOU	vs DAL		1.7	-7.4	0.7	0.5	3.3	0.0	2.1	7.3	0.1
85	Anthony Tyus III thin prior (0 touches)	RB	CAR	vs DET		1.7	-7.4	0.5	0.4	2.8	0.0	2.2	8.3	0.1
86	Dean Connors thin prior (0 touches)	RB	LA	@ PHI		1.5	-7.6	0.5	0.4	2.4	0.0	2.0	7.1	0.1
87	Tahj Brooks thin prior (8 touches)	RB	CIN	vs JAX		1.4	-7.7	0.5	0.4	2.8	0.0	1.4	6.1	0.0
88	Brashard Smith thin prior (22 touches)	RB	KC	@ LV		1.4	-7.7	0.6	0.5	3.5	0.0	1.3	5.1	0.0
89	Jacob Saylors thin prior (1 touches)	RB	DET	@ CAR		1.4	-7.7	0.4	0.3	2.0	0.0	1.5	6.8	0.0
90	Rasheen Ali thin prior (6 touches)	RB	BAL	vs TEN		1.3	-7.8	0.3	0.2	1.9	0.0	1.5	6.9	0.0
91	Ray Davis	RB	BUF	vs NE	Q · 66%	1.2	-7.9	0.3	0.2	1.6	0.0	1.5	6.3	0.0
92	Dylan Laube thin prior (4 touches)	RB	LV	vs KC		1.1	-8.0	0.3	0.3	1.9	0.0	1.3	5.3	0.0
93	Craig Reynolds thin prior (19 touches)	RB	WAS	vs IND		1.1	-8.0	0.6	0.4	3.0	0.0	1.0	3.7	0.0
94	Julius Chestnut thin prior (12 touches)	RB	TEN	@ BAL		1.1	-8.1	0.6	0.5	3.3	0.0	0.7	2.7	0.0

VORP = this player's points minus the points of the last startable player at his position (hover the VORP cell to see who). Baseline rank = teams × starters, with FLEX split RB/WR/TE 45/45/10.

Known limitations

Thin priors over-projected QBs. Efficiency comes from 2023–25, regressed toward the league average by sample size. Over Weeks 1–4, QB1s whose prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted dropbacks were projected +3.9 PPR a game too high (9 QBs; established QB1s +0.1). Those rows carry a thin prior chip. From Week 7 (model n8-v3) a QB's passing rates also read his own 2026 dropbacks, weighted against the prior's sample plus a fixed anchor, so a few snaps barely move them. On Weeks 5–6 this halved the thin-QB bias. Rushing rates and the game lines still use the prior: the game-level check of the same change failed.
Team pass volume is a 2023–25 prior too; in-season, only player shares blend toward what is observed. Blending team volume in-season was tested twice and lost to the prior both times.