NFL Player Projections

Week 3 — opponent-adjusted (this week's defence, home/away), availability-weighted, byes zeroed. Components (volume × efficiency) with scoring applied as a view. Model n8-v2 · updated 32d ago.

Week: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8• Season Position: All QB RB WR TE

Scoring: PPR Half Standard DK Rank by: VORP Points ⬇ CSV

League & scoring settings — server-side, from your stored component projections; the URL is the saved config

95 players · ranked by VORP under half_ppr scoring, 12-team league (1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1FLEX). thin prior (n) = the efficiency prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted 2023–25 dropbacks (QB) or 55 touches (RB/WR/TE), so the league average carries about half or more of the line's efficiency; ⚠ = low-sample / rookie (archetype-driven). A designation like Q · 60% means the line is weighted by that play probability; BYE rows project 0 and are kept visible.

Replacement level (VORP is measured against these): QB12 Baker Mayfield · 17.7 pts · RB29 J.K. Dobbins · 9.3 pts · WR41 Kayshon Boutte · 7.8 pts · TE13 Juwan Johnson · 6.5 pts

#	Player	Pos	Tm	Opp	Status	Pts	VORP	Tgt	Rec	RecYd	RecTD	Car	RuYd	RuTD
1	Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	DET	vs NYJ		20.5	+11.2	4.4	3.5	30.8	0.2	17.2	93.4	0.9
2	Bijan Robinson	RB	ATL	@ GB		17.5	+8.2	5.6	4.4	36.6	0.2	16.4	77.7	0.5
3	Jonathan Taylor	RB	IND	vs HOU		16.9	+7.6	3.6	2.9	20.9	0.1	18.1	82.7	0.7
4	Javonte Williams	RB	DAL	vs BAL		15.5	+6.2	4.2	3.2	20.2	0.1	18.1	77.0	0.6
5	De'Von Achane	RB	MIA	vs KC		15.3	+6.0	4.2	3.4	25.9	0.2	12.9	71.9	0.5
6	James Cook	RB	BUF	vs LAC		15.2	+5.9	3.1	2.5	19.9	0.1	15.8	77.8	0.6
7	Kenneth Walker III ⚠	RB	KC	@ MIA		14.4	+5.1	5.0	4.0	31.2	0.1	14.3	59.4	0.4
8	Chase Brown	RB	CIN	@ PIT		12.8	+3.5	4.4	3.5	23.3	0.2	13.6	56.4	0.4
9	Christian McCaffrey	RB	SF	vs ARI		12.6	+3.4	5.0	4.0	30.4	0.2	11.7	44.5	0.3
10	Kyren Williams	RB	LA	@ DEN		12.6	+3.3	3.5	2.6	17.4	0.1	13.7	58.8	0.5
11	Derrick Henry	RB	BAL	@ DAL		12.4	+3.1	2.3	1.8	11.1	0.1	16.8	67.4	0.6
12	D'Andre Swift	RB	CHI	vs PHI		12.4	+3.1	3.2	2.5	18.5	0.1	14.4	62.7	0.4
13	David Montgomery ⚠	RB	HOU	@ IND		12.0	+2.7	3.2	2.6	17.7	0.1	14.0	53.4	0.6
14	Breece Hall	RB	NYJ	@ DET		12.0	+2.7	3.8	3.0	23.2	0.1	13.6	57.5	0.3
15	Bucky Irving	RB	TB	vs MIN		11.8	+2.5	4.0	3.3	25.1	0.1	12.0	51.4	0.3
16	Quinshon Judkins	RB	CLE	vs CAR		11.1	+1.8	3.5	2.7	20.8	0.1	11.3	47.9	0.4
17	Bhayshul Tuten thin prior (42 touches)	RB	JAX	vs NE		11.1	+1.8	2.9	2.3	18.2	0.1	11.4	48.0	0.5
18	Cam Skattebo thin prior (50 touches)	RB	NYG	vs TEN		10.9	+1.6	2.6	2.1	17.7	0.1	11.2	50.1	0.4
19	Ashton Jeanty	RB	LV	@ NO		10.5	+1.2	4.2	3.2	21.1	0.2	11.7	42.6	0.3
20	Jacory Croskey-Merritt	RB	WAS	vs SEA		10.4	+1.1	2.3	1.8	13.5	0.1	11.6	52.8	0.4
21	Omarion Hampton	RB	LAC	@ BUF		10.3	+1.1	2.7	2.2	14.7	0.1	11.8	51.0	0.4
22	Rhamondre Stevenson	RB	NE	@ JAX		10.2	+1.0	3.6	2.9	20.2	0.1	10.9	42.0	0.4
23	Chuba Hubbard	RB	CAR	@ CLE		10.1	+0.9	3.1	2.5	14.4	0.1	12.9	50.8	0.3
24	Travis Etienne ⚠	RB	NO	vs LV		10.1	+0.9	3.6	2.7	21.2	0.1	10.0	40.9	0.3
25	Saquon Barkley	RB	PHI	@ CHI		10.1	+0.8	2.6	2.0	12.8	0.1	13.1	53.3	0.3
26	Kaleb Johnson thin prior (14 touches)	RB	GB	vs ATL		9.6	+0.3	2.3	1.8	14.3	0.1	11.9	48.3	0.3
27	Jeremiyah Love thin prior (0 touches)	RB	ARI	@ SF		9.5	+0.2	3.6	2.5	17.5	0.1	11.4	42.1	0.3
28	Jadarian Price thin prior (0 touches)	RB	SEA	@ WAS		9.4	+0.1	2.9	2.0	15.7	0.1	11.8	44.6	0.3
29	J.K. Dobbins	RB	DEN	vs LA		9.3	+0.0	2.1	1.6	10.3	0.1	10.9	49.9	0.4
30	Tony Pollard	RB	TEN	@ NYG		8.7	-0.6	2.5	1.9	11.5	0.0	12.0	47.5	0.3
31	Travis Homer thin prior (2 touches)	RB	PIT	vs CIN		8.5	-0.7	2.0	1.5	11.7	0.1	10.1	43.9	0.3
32	Jaylen Warren	RB	PIT	vs CIN	Q · 66%	8.0	-1.3	2.2	1.8	14.3	0.1	8.3	39.0	0.2
33	Ollie Gordon II thin prior (35 touches)	RB	MIA	vs KC		7.9	-1.4	2.6	2.0	14.8	0.1	8.2	31.7	0.3
34	MarShawn Lloyd thin prior (2 touches)	RB	GB	vs ATL		7.8	-1.4	1.5	1.2	9.2	0.0	9.5	42.6	0.3
35	Rachaad White ⚠	RB	WAS	vs SEA		7.3	-1.9	2.2	1.8	12.8	0.1	8.4	33.9	0.2
36	RJ Harvey	RB	DEN	vs LA		7.0	-2.3	2.2	1.7	13.1	0.1	6.7	27.6	0.3
37	Aaron Jones	RB	MIN	@ TB		7.0	-2.3	2.1	1.6	9.1	0.0	12.4	38.4	0.2
38	Kyle Monangai	RB	CHI	vs PHI		6.9	-2.4	1.7	1.3	9.8	0.0	7.7	35.5	0.2
39	TreVeyon Henderson	RB	NE	@ JAX		6.8	-2.4	1.2	0.9	6.5	0.0	8.0	37.4	0.3
40	Alvin Kamara	RB	NO	vs LV		6.7	-2.6	3.1	2.5	15.4	0.1	7.5	25.7	0.2
41	Tyler Allgeier ⚠	RB	ARI	@ SF		6.6	-2.7	1.8	1.4	10.2	0.0	7.7	30.1	0.3
42	Chris Rodriguez Jr. ⚠	RB	JAX	vs NE		6.3	-3.0	1.1	0.9	6.8	0.0	7.4	33.1	0.3
43	Brian Robinson ⚠	RB	ATL	@ GB		6.3	-3.0	1.4	1.1	7.7	0.0	8.3	33.3	0.2
44	Kenny Gainwell ⚠	RB	TB	vs MIN		6.1	-3.2	1.9	1.6	10.3	0.1	6.5	27.8	0.2
45	Keaton Mitchell thin prior (43 touches)	RB	LAC	@ BUF		6.0	-3.3	1.4	1.1	8.0	0.0	6.5	33.4	0.2
46	Blake Corum	RB	LA	@ DEN		5.9	-3.3	1.4	1.0	6.9	0.0	7.4	32.2	0.2
47	Emanuel Wilson ⚠	RB	SEA	@ WAS		5.9	-3.4	1.2	0.9	6.8	0.0	7.6	32.0	0.2
48	Kaelon Black thin prior (0 touches)	RB	SF	vs ARI		5.8	-3.5	1.2	0.8	6.5	0.0	8.1	32.2	0.2
49	Woody Marks	RB	HOU	@ IND		5.8	-3.5	2.0	1.5	11.2	0.1	7.1	26.3	0.2
50	Raheim Sanders thin prior (14 touches)	RB	CLE	vs CAR		5.6	-3.6	1.9	1.5	11.8	0.1	5.0	23.2	0.2
51	Tank Bigsby	RB	PHI	@ CHI		5.6	-3.6	1.3	1.0	7.1	0.0	6.5	29.7	0.2
52	Najee Harris ⚠	RB	NYG	vs TEN		5.5	-3.7	1.2	0.9	7.3	0.0	7.3	29.7	0.2
53	Sione Vaki thin prior (2 touches)	RB	DET	vs NYJ		5.1	-4.2	1.3	1.0	8.5	0.0	5.5	24.7	0.2
54	Justice Hill thin prior (40 touches)	RB	BAL	@ DAL		4.8	-4.5	1.5	1.2	8.2	0.0	5.3	21.6	0.2
55	Emmett Johnson thin prior (0 touches)	RB	KC	@ MIA		4.6	-4.7	1.7	1.2	8.9	0.0	5.5	20.1	0.1
56	AJ Dillon thin prior (42 touches)	RB	CAR	@ CLE		4.5	-4.7	1.1	0.9	5.8	0.0	6.7	24.4	0.2
57	Braelon Allen thin prior (37 touches)	RB	NYJ	@ DET		4.4	-4.9	1.4	1.1	7.6	0.0	5.1	20.0	0.1
58	DeeJay Dallas thin prior (6 touches)	RB	MIN	@ TB		4.4	-4.9	1.4	1.1	7.3	0.0	5.4	20.6	0.1
59	Tyjae Spears	RB	TEN	@ NYG	Q · 66%	4.2	-5.1	1.7	1.4	9.5	0.0	3.7	15.9	0.1
60	Lew Nichols III thin prior (0 touches)	RB	PIT	vs CIN		4.0	-5.2	1.0	0.8	6.4	0.0	4.2	19.9	0.1
61	Seth McGowan thin prior (0 touches)	RB	IND	vs HOU		4.0	-5.2	1.3	0.9	6.4	0.0	5.2	19.3	0.1
62	Mike Washington Jr. thin prior (0 touches)	RB	LV	@ NO		4.0	-5.3	1.2	0.8	5.7	0.0	5.6	20.1	0.1
63	Samaje Perine	RB	CIN	@ PIT		3.9	-5.3	1.7	1.4	8.9	0.0	4.3	15.3	0.1
64	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	RB	NYG	vs TEN		3.9	-5.4	0.8	0.6	4.9	0.0	5.0	22.1	0.1
65	Chris Brooks thin prior (28 touches)	RB	GB	vs ATL		3.6	-5.6	0.9	0.7	5.2	0.0	4.2	19.2	0.1
66	Ray Davis	RB	BUF	vs LAC		3.4	-5.9	0.9	0.7	5.4	0.0	3.9	16.6	0.1
67	Nicholas Singleton thin prior (0 touches)	RB	TEN	@ NYG		3.2	-6.1	0.9	0.6	4.4	0.0	4.2	16.1	0.1
68	Sean Tucker	RB	TB	vs MIN		3.0	-6.3	0.7	0.5	3.6	0.0	3.3	14.0	0.1
69	Will Shipley thin prior (16 touches)	RB	PHI	@ CHI		2.8	-6.5	0.9	0.7	4.9	0.0	3.3	13.2	0.1
70	Tyler Badie thin prior (16 touches)	RB	DEN	vs LA		2.8	-6.5	1.2	0.9	6.3	0.0	2.5	11.2	0.1
71	Kimani Vidal	RB	LAC	@ BUF		2.7	-6.6	0.6	0.5	3.4	0.0	3.6	15.0	0.1
72	George Holani thin prior (12 touches)	RB	SEA	@ WAS		2.7	-6.6	0.8	0.6	4.6	0.0	3.0	12.2	0.1
73	Jaleel McLaughlin ⚠	RB	CLE	vs CAR		2.5	-6.7	0.7	0.6	4.1	0.0	2.5	12.8	0.1
74	Ty Johnson thin prior (43 touches)	RB	BUF	vs LAC		2.5	-6.8	0.8	0.6	4.7	0.0	2.6	10.5	0.1
75	Kaytron Allen thin prior (0 touches)	RB	WAS	vs SEA		2.3	-7.0	0.4	0.3	2.0	0.0	3.6	13.5	0.1
76	Kendre Miller thin prior (43 touches)	RB	NO	vs LV		2.2	-7.0	0.5	0.4	3.0	0.0	2.7	11.8	0.1
77	Corey Kiner thin prior (6 touches)	RB	NE	@ JAX		2.2	-7.0	0.4	0.3	2.3	0.0	3.0	12.7	0.1
78	Jordan James thin prior (0 touches)	RB	SF	vs ARI		2.2	-7.0	0.5	0.3	2.8	0.0	2.8	12.0	0.1
79	Roschon Johnson thin prior (34 touches)	RB	CHI	vs PHI		2.1	-7.1	0.5	0.4	3.1	0.0	2.4	9.9	0.1
80	LeQuint Allen Jr. thin prior (12 touches)	RB	JAX	vs NE		2.1	-7.2	0.7	0.6	4.5	0.0	2.0	8.9	0.1
81	Anthony Tyus III thin prior (0 touches)	RB	CAR	@ CLE		2.0	-7.2	0.7	0.5	3.1	0.0	2.7	9.7	0.1
82	Bam Knight thin prior (42 touches)	RB	ARI	@ SF		2.0	-7.3	0.5	0.4	3.0	0.0	2.4	9.1	0.1
83	Dean Connors thin prior (0 touches)	RB	LA	@ DEN		2.0	-7.3	0.7	0.5	3.5	0.0	2.5	9.0	0.1
84	Demond Claiborne thin prior (0 touches)	RB	MIN	@ TB		1.8	-7.5	0.8	0.5	3.7	0.0	2.2	7.6	0.1
85	Isaiah Davis thin prior (30 touches)	RB	NYJ	@ DET		1.8	-7.5	0.6	0.5	3.4	0.0	1.8	8.1	0.1
86	Ameer Abdullah thin prior (30 touches)	RB	JAX	vs NE		1.8	-7.5	0.9	0.7	4.1	0.0	1.7	6.1	0.0
87	CJ Donaldson thin prior (0 touches)	RB	NO	vs LV		1.7	-7.6	0.7	0.5	3.5	0.0	1.8	7.0	0.1
88	Jacob Saylors thin prior (1 touches)	RB	DET	vs NYJ		1.6	-7.6	0.4	0.3	2.6	0.0	1.8	8.1	0.1
89	British Brooks thin prior (9 touches)	RB	HOU	@ IND		1.6	-7.6	0.6	0.4	3.1	0.0	1.8	7.4	0.1
90	Tahj Brooks thin prior (8 touches)	RB	CIN	@ PIT		1.6	-7.7	0.5	0.4	3.0	0.0	1.7	6.7	0.0
91	Julius Chestnut thin prior (12 touches)	RB	TEN	@ NYG		1.5	-7.7	0.9	0.7	4.8	0.0	0.9	4.1	0.0
92	Rasheen Ali thin prior (6 touches)	RB	BAL	@ DAL		1.5	-7.8	0.3	0.3	1.9	0.0	1.8	7.8	0.1
93	Brashard Smith thin prior (22 touches)	RB	KC	@ MIA		1.5	-7.8	0.6	0.4	3.3	0.0	1.6	6.2	0.0
94	Velus Jones Jr. thin prior (2 touches)	RB	SEA	@ WAS		1.3	-8.0	0.6	0.4	4.8	0.0	0.7	2.9	0.0
95	Dylan Laube thin prior (4 touches)	RB	LV	@ NO		1.2	-8.0	0.4	0.3	2.1	0.0	1.5	5.7	0.0

VORP = this player's points minus the points of the last startable player at his position (hover the VORP cell to see who). Baseline rank = teams × starters, with FLEX split RB/WR/TE 45/45/10.

Known limitations

Thin priors over-projected QBs. Efficiency comes from 2023–25, regressed toward the league average by sample size. Over Weeks 1–4, QB1s whose prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted dropbacks were projected +3.9 PPR a game too high (9 QBs; established QB1s +0.1). Those rows carry a thin prior chip. From Week 7 (model n8-v3) a QB's passing rates also read his own 2026 dropbacks, weighted against the prior's sample plus a fixed anchor, so a few snaps barely move them. On Weeks 5–6 this halved the thin-QB bias. Rushing rates and the game lines still use the prior: the game-level check of the same change failed.
Team pass volume is a 2023–25 prior too; in-season, only player shares blend toward what is observed. Blending team volume in-season was tested twice and lost to the prior both times.