NFL Player Projections

Week 2 — opponent-adjusted (this week's defence, home/away), availability-weighted, byes zeroed. Components (volume × efficiency) with scoring applied as a view. Model n8-v2 · updated 39d ago.

Week: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8• Season Position: All QB RB WR TE

Scoring: PPR Half Standard DK Rank by: VORP Points ⬇ CSV

League & scoring settings — server-side, from your stored component projections; the URL is the saved config

96 players · ranked by VORP under half_ppr scoring, 12-team league (1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1FLEX). thin prior (n) = the efficiency prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted 2023–25 dropbacks (QB) or 55 touches (RB/WR/TE), so the league average carries about half or more of the line's efficiency; ⚠ = low-sample / rookie (archetype-driven). A designation like Q · 60% means the line is weighted by that play probability; BYE rows project 0 and are kept visible.

Replacement level (VORP is measured against these): QB12 Baker Mayfield · 17.8 pts · RB29 Quinshon Judkins · 9.2 pts · WR41 KC Concepcion · 7.8 pts · TE13 Cade Otton · 6.6 pts

#	Player	Pos	Tm	Opp	Status	Pts	VORP	Tgt	Rec	RecYd	RecTD	Car	RuYd	RuTD
1	Bijan Robinson	RB	ATL	vs CAR		21.2	+12.0	6.5	5.0	47.0	0.2	16.9	92.1	0.6
2	Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	DET	@ BUF		17.7	+8.5	4.0	3.2	23.9	0.1	16.1	82.9	0.8
3	James Cook	RB	BUF	vs DET		16.7	+7.5	3.3	2.6	21.3	0.1	17.5	86.8	0.7
4	Jonathan Taylor	RB	IND	@ KC		16.1	+6.9	3.5	2.7	19.3	0.1	17.9	79.4	0.7
5	Kyren Williams	RB	LA	vs NYG		14.9	+5.8	3.5	2.7	20.1	0.1	14.3	72.2	0.6
6	De'Von Achane	RB	MIA	@ SF		14.9	+5.8	4.2	3.4	24.8	0.2	13.4	70.3	0.5
7	David Montgomery ⚠	RB	HOU	vs CIN		14.4	+5.2	3.6	2.9	22.7	0.1	14.6	63.0	0.7
8	Kenneth Walker III ⚠	RB	KC	vs IND		13.9	+4.7	4.5	3.7	30.0	0.1	13.1	58.2	0.4
9	Javonte Williams	RB	DAL	vs WAS		13.2	+4.0	4.0	3.0	21.2	0.1	13.1	60.4	0.5
10	MarShawn Lloyd thin prior (2 touches)	RB	GB	@ NYJ		12.9	+3.7	2.9	2.3	17.4	0.1	15.8	66.8	0.5
11	Breece Hall	RB	NYJ	vs GB		12.8	+3.6	3.7	2.9	24.6	0.1	13.7	62.4	0.3
12	Christian McCaffrey	RB	SF	vs MIA		12.4	+3.2	4.7	3.7	28.7	0.2	12.1	45.1	0.4
13	Derrick Henry	RB	BAL	vs NO		12.2	+3.0	2.4	1.9	12.0	0.1	16.0	64.6	0.6
14	Chase Brown	RB	CIN	@ HOU		11.9	+2.7	4.3	3.5	22.0	0.2	12.8	51.1	0.3
15	Bucky Irving	RB	TB	vs CLE		11.7	+2.5	4.2	3.5	26.8	0.1	10.8	48.3	0.3
16	Rhamondre Stevenson	RB	NE	vs PIT		11.5	+2.3	3.6	2.9	21.6	0.1	11.9	49.0	0.4
17	Saquon Barkley	RB	PHI	@ TEN		11.5	+2.3	2.7	2.1	14.2	0.1	15.2	61.5	0.4
18	D'Andre Swift	RB	CHI	vs MIN		11.1	+1.9	2.8	2.2	15.7	0.1	13.3	57.4	0.4
19	Travis Etienne ⚠	RB	NO	@ BAL		10.6	+1.4	3.9	2.9	20.6	0.1	11.9	44.0	0.3
20	Jacory Croskey-Merritt	RB	WAS	@ DAL		10.3	+1.2	2.7	2.1	16.0	0.1	10.7	49.2	0.4
21	Jadarian Price thin prior (0 touches)	RB	SEA	@ ARI		10.3	+1.1	3.2	2.2	16.3	0.1	13.4	49.6	0.4
22	Chuba Hubbard	RB	CAR	@ ATL		10.2	+1.1	3.2	2.6	16.6	0.1	12.2	48.8	0.3
23	Jaylen Warren	RB	PIT	@ NE		10.2	+1.0	3.5	2.8	19.6	0.1	11.5	47.2	0.3
24	J.K. Dobbins	RB	DEN	vs JAX		9.9	+0.7	2.6	2.0	13.2	0.1	10.9	50.3	0.4
25	Bhayshul Tuten thin prior (42 touches)	RB	JAX	@ DEN		9.9	+0.7	3.1	2.4	17.0	0.1	10.6	41.1	0.4
26	Jeremiyah Love thin prior (0 touches)	RB	ARI	vs SEA		9.7	+0.5	3.5	2.4	17.7	0.1	11.5	43.3	0.3
27	Ashton Jeanty	RB	LV	@ LAC		9.4	+0.2	3.7	2.8	18.3	0.1	10.8	39.4	0.3
28	Omarion Hampton	RB	LAC	vs LV		9.4	+0.2	2.5	2.1	15.3	0.1	10.0	44.3	0.3
29	Quinshon Judkins	RB	CLE	@ TB		9.2	+0.0	3.2	2.5	17.5	0.1	11.0	38.6	0.3
30	Tony Pollard	RB	TEN	vs PHI		8.7	-0.5	2.6	2.0	12.0	0.1	12.1	46.8	0.3
31	Cam Skattebo thin prior (50 touches)	RB	NYG	@ LA		7.9	-1.3	2.3	1.8	13.0	0.1	8.6	35.0	0.3
32	Emari Demercado thin prior (41 touches)	RB	DAL	vs WAS		7.5	-1.7	1.5	1.1	9.0	0.0	7.9	44.5	0.2
33	Aaron Jones	RB	MIN	@ CHI		7.0	-2.2	2.5	1.9	10.9	0.1	10.6	35.4	0.2
34	Brian Robinson ⚠	RB	ATL	vs CAR		6.7	-2.5	1.2	0.9	7.2	0.0	8.0	37.0	0.3
35	Kenny Gainwell ⚠	RB	TB	vs CLE		6.5	-2.7	1.6	1.3	8.4	0.0	7.7	33.8	0.2
36	Rachaad White ⚠	RB	WAS	@ DAL		6.5	-2.7	1.6	1.4	9.7	0.1	8.0	32.5	0.2
37	Tyler Allgeier ⚠	RB	ARI	vs SEA		6.4	-2.8	1.6	1.3	9.7	0.0	7.5	30.0	0.3
38	TreVeyon Henderson	RB	NE	vs PIT		6.4	-2.8	1.5	1.2	8.6	0.0	6.4	31.8	0.3
39	Keaton Mitchell thin prior (43 touches)	RB	LAC	vs LV		6.4	-2.8	1.3	1.0	8.4	0.0	6.9	36.2	0.2
40	Rico Dowdle ⚠	RB	PIT	@ NE		6.4	-2.8	1.9	1.5	10.4	0.1	7.9	32.2	0.2
41	Blake Corum	RB	LA	vs NYG		6.2	-3.0	1.3	1.0	7.4	0.0	6.6	33.9	0.2
42	Kyle Monangai	RB	CHI	vs MIN		6.2	-3.0	1.7	1.2	9.3	0.0	6.9	31.5	0.2
43	Chris Rodriguez Jr. ⚠	RB	JAX	@ DEN		6.1	-3.1	1.4	1.1	7.3	0.0	7.4	30.6	0.3
44	Tyjae Spears	RB	TEN	vs PHI		6.0	-3.2	2.3	1.9	13.2	0.1	5.5	23.3	0.2
45	Alvin Kamara	RB	NO	@ BAL		5.9	-3.3	2.5	2.0	11.2	0.0	8.3	25.7	0.2
46	Jonathon Brooks thin prior (3 touches)	RB	CAR	@ ATL		5.7	-3.5	1.7	1.3	9.5	0.1	6.6	26.8	0.2
47	Raheim Sanders thin prior (14 touches)	RB	CLE	@ TB		5.7	-3.5	2.2	1.7	12.8	0.1	5.6	21.4	0.2
48	Woody Marks	RB	HOU	vs CIN		5.5	-3.7	1.5	1.1	9.5	0.1	6.4	26.9	0.2
49	Chris Brooks thin prior (28 touches)	RB	GB	@ NYJ		5.5	-3.7	1.3	1.0	7.7	0.0	6.7	29.0	0.2
50	George Holani thin prior (12 touches)	RB	SEA	@ ARI		5.4	-3.8	1.5	1.1	8.3	0.0	6.6	26.2	0.2
51	Demond Claiborne thin prior (0 touches)	RB	MIN	@ CHI		5.4	-3.8	1.4	1.0	7.1	0.0	7.6	28.1	0.2
52	Sione Vaki thin prior (2 touches)	RB	DET	@ BUF		5.4	-3.8	1.4	1.1	7.8	0.0	6.3	26.9	0.2
53	Emmett Johnson thin prior (0 touches)	RB	KC	vs IND		5.4	-3.8	1.9	1.3	10.1	0.1	6.2	24.0	0.2
54	Justice Hill thin prior (40 touches)	RB	BAL	vs NO		5.2	-4.0	1.6	1.2	8.8	0.0	5.7	23.5	0.2
55	Jonah Coleman thin prior (0 touches)	RB	DEN	vs JAX		5.0	-4.1	1.2	0.9	6.6	0.0	6.8	26.5	0.2
56	Braelon Allen thin prior (37 touches)	RB	NYJ	vs GB		5.0	-4.2	1.5	1.2	9.2	0.0	5.2	22.1	0.2
57	Najee Harris ⚠	RB	NYG	@ LA		4.8	-4.4	1.5	1.2	7.5	0.0	6.3	23.2	0.2
58	Ray Davis	RB	BUF	vs DET		4.6	-4.6	1.1	0.9	7.0	0.0	5.4	23.3	0.1
59	Tank Bigsby	RB	PHI	@ TEN		4.5	-4.7	1.1	0.8	6.4	0.0	5.0	22.8	0.2
60	Seth McGowan thin prior (0 touches)	RB	IND	@ KC		4.5	-4.7	1.5	1.1	7.3	0.0	5.8	21.0	0.2
61	Jordan James thin prior (0 touches)	RB	SF	vs MIA		4.4	-4.8	1.1	0.8	6.2	0.0	5.4	22.3	0.2
62	Mike Washington Jr. thin prior (0 touches)	RB	LV	@ LAC		4.3	-4.8	1.2	0.9	5.9	0.0	6.2	22.4	0.2
63	Samaje Perine	RB	CIN	@ HOU		4.2	-5.0	1.9	1.6	9.4	0.0	4.8	16.6	0.1
64	Kaelon Black thin prior (0 touches)	RB	SF	vs MIA	Q · 66%	4.0	-5.2	0.9	0.6	5.0	0.0	5.4	21.2	0.2
65	Jaylen Wright	RB	MIA	@ SF		3.8	-5.4	1.2	0.9	6.3	0.0	4.6	18.7	0.1
66	Kimani Vidal	RB	LAC	vs LV		3.4	-5.8	0.7	0.5	4.3	0.0	4.4	18.8	0.1
67	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	RB	NYG	@ LA		3.4	-5.8	0.9	0.7	4.8	0.0	4.5	18.0	0.1
68	Devin Singletary	RB	NYG	@ LA		3.3	-5.9	1.3	1.1	6.6	0.0	3.8	12.9	0.1
69	Sean Tucker	RB	TB	vs CLE		3.1	-6.1	0.7	0.5	3.7	0.0	3.3	14.8	0.1
70	Ronnie Rivers thin prior (18 touches)	RB	LA	vs NYG		2.6	-6.5	0.8	0.6	4.6	0.0	2.7	12.6	0.1
71	Corey Kiner thin prior (6 touches)	RB	NE	vs PIT		2.6	-6.6	0.5	0.4	2.9	0.0	3.2	14.5	0.1
72	Isaiah Davis thin prior (30 touches)	RB	NYJ	vs GB		2.5	-6.7	0.8	0.6	4.8	0.0	2.2	11.1	0.1
73	Tyler Badie thin prior (16 touches)	RB	DEN	vs JAX		2.4	-6.8	0.7	0.5	3.7	0.0	2.7	12.2	0.1
74	Jaleel McLaughlin ⚠	RB	CLE	@ TB		2.4	-6.8	0.7	0.6	3.5	0.0	2.9	12.1	0.1
75	British Brooks thin prior (9 touches)	RB	HOU	vs CIN		2.3	-6.9	0.7	0.6	4.4	0.0	2.3	10.5	0.1
76	AJ Dillon thin prior (42 touches)	RB	CAR	@ ATL		2.3	-6.9	0.5	0.4	3.0	0.0	3.3	12.2	0.1
77	Will Shipley thin prior (16 touches)	RB	PHI	@ TEN		2.2	-7.0	0.7	0.5	4.1	0.0	2.5	9.9	0.1
78	Kaytron Allen thin prior (0 touches)	RB	WAS	@ DAL		2.2	-7.0	0.5	0.3	2.5	0.0	3.1	11.8	0.1
79	Bam Knight thin prior (42 touches)	RB	ARI	vs SEA		2.1	-7.1	0.7	0.5	3.8	0.0	2.3	8.9	0.1
80	LeQuint Allen Jr. thin prior (12 touches)	RB	JAX	@ DEN		2.1	-7.1	0.7	0.5	3.5	0.0	2.5	10.0	0.1
81	Travis Homer thin prior (2 touches)	RB	PIT	@ NE		2.1	-7.1	0.6	0.5	3.1	0.0	2.6	10.1	0.1
82	Ollie Gordon II thin prior (35 touches)	RB	MIA	@ SF		2.0	-7.1	0.6	0.5	3.2	0.0	2.5	9.0	0.1
83	Roschon Johnson thin prior (34 touches)	RB	CHI	vs MIN		2.0	-7.2	0.5	0.4	3.0	0.0	2.2	9.1	0.1
84	DeeJay Dallas thin prior (6 touches)	RB	MIN	@ CHI		2.0	-7.2	0.7	0.6	3.7	0.0	2.2	8.9	0.1
85	Emanuel Wilson ⚠	RB	SEA	@ ARI		2.0	-7.2	0.5	0.4	2.7	0.0	2.5	10.3	0.1
86	Brashard Smith thin prior (22 touches)	RB	KC	vs IND		2.0	-7.2	0.7	0.6	4.3	0.0	2.0	8.2	0.1
87	Rasheen Ali thin prior (6 touches)	RB	BAL	vs NO		1.9	-7.3	0.4	0.3	2.6	0.0	2.2	9.5	0.1
88	Jacob Saylors thin prior (1 touches)	RB	DET	@ BUF		1.9	-7.3	0.5	0.4	2.7	0.0	2.2	9.3	0.1
89	Julius Chestnut thin prior (12 touches)	RB	TEN	vs PHI		1.9	-7.3	0.5	0.4	3.0	0.0	2.1	9.0	0.1
90	CJ Donaldson thin prior (0 touches)	RB	NO	@ BAL		1.8	-7.3	0.7	0.5	3.6	0.0	2.2	7.8	0.1
91	Kaleb Johnson thin prior (14 touches)	RB	GB	@ NYJ		1.8	-7.4	0.5	0.4	3.0	0.0	2.3	8.8	0.1
92	Tahj Brooks thin prior (8 touches)	RB	CIN	@ HOU		1.5	-7.7	0.6	0.4	3.0	0.0	1.7	6.6	0.0
93	Dylan Laube thin prior (4 touches)	RB	LV	@ LAC		1.5	-7.7	0.5	0.4	2.5	0.0	1.8	6.9	0.1
94	Ameer Abdullah thin prior (30 touches)	RB	JAX	@ DEN		1.4	-7.8	0.9	0.7	3.5	0.0	1.4	4.4	0.0
95	Eli Heidenreich thin prior (0 touches)	RB	PIT	@ NE		0.9	-8.2	0.5	0.3	3.2	0.0	0.6	2.6	0.0
96	Nicholas Singleton thin prior (0 touches)	RB	TEN	vs PHI		0.9	-8.2	0.6	0.4	2.8	0.0	0.7	2.7	0.0

VORP = this player's points minus the points of the last startable player at his position (hover the VORP cell to see who). Baseline rank = teams × starters, with FLEX split RB/WR/TE 45/45/10.

Known limitations

Thin priors over-projected QBs. Efficiency comes from 2023–25, regressed toward the league average by sample size. Over Weeks 1–4, QB1s whose prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted dropbacks were projected +3.9 PPR a game too high (9 QBs; established QB1s +0.1). Those rows carry a thin prior chip. From Week 7 (model n8-v3) a QB's passing rates also read his own 2026 dropbacks, weighted against the prior's sample plus a fixed anchor, so a few snaps barely move them. On Weeks 5–6 this halved the thin-QB bias. Rushing rates and the game lines still use the prior: the game-level check of the same change failed.
Team pass volume is a 2023–25 prior too; in-season, only player shares blend toward what is observed. Blending team volume in-season was tested twice and lost to the prior both times.