NFL Player Projections

Week 4 — opponent-adjusted (this week's defence, home/away), availability-weighted, byes zeroed. Components (volume × efficiency) with scoring applied as a view. Model n8-v2 · updated 25d ago.

Week: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8• Season Position: All QB RB WR TE

Scoring: PPR Half Standard DK Rank by: VORP Points ⬇ CSV

League & scoring settings — server-side, from your stored component projections; the URL is the saved config

94 players · ranked by VORP under dk_classic scoring, 12-team league (1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1FLEX). thin prior (n) = the efficiency prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted 2023–25 dropbacks (QB) or 55 touches (RB/WR/TE), so the league average carries about half or more of the line's efficiency; ⚠ = low-sample / rookie (archetype-driven). A designation like Q · 60% means the line is weighted by that play probability; BYE rows project 0 and are kept visible.

Replacement level (VORP is measured against these): QB12 Dak Prescott · 17.5 pts · RB29 Braelon Allen · 10.2 pts · WR41 Khalil Shakir · 9.6 pts · TE13 Dalton Kincaid · 9.1 pts

#	Player	Pos	Tm	Opp	Status	Pts	VORP	Tgt	Rec	RecYd	RecTD	Car	RuYd	RuTD
1	Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	DET	@ CAR		22.5	+12.3	4.9	3.9	31.3	0.2	17.3	92.1	0.9
2	Bijan Robinson	RB	ATL	@ NO		19.2	+9.0	5.2	4.0	32.9	0.2	17.0	79.7	0.5
3	Jonathan Taylor	RB	IND	@ WAS		18.4	+8.2	3.4	2.7	21.0	0.1	18.3	84.2	0.8
4	James Cook	RB	BUF	vs NE		16.8	+6.6	2.8	2.3	18.9	0.1	16.6	82.2	0.6
5	Kenneth Walker III ⚠	RB	KC	@ LV		16.2	+6.0	4.8	3.9	29.3	0.1	14.9	60.8	0.4
6	Chase Brown	RB	CIN	vs JAX		15.3	+5.1	4.1	3.2	23.5	0.2	14.1	63.4	0.4
7	Christian McCaffrey	RB	SF	vs DEN		15.1	+4.8	5.0	4.0	28.0	0.2	13.6	49.7	0.4
8	Bucky Irving	RB	TB	vs GB		15.0	+4.8	4.0	3.3	27.8	0.1	13.4	60.1	0.4
9	D'Andre Swift	RB	CHI	vs NYJ		14.1	+3.9	3.1	2.4	20.0	0.1	14.2	64.9	0.5
10	Derrick Henry	RB	BAL	vs TEN		14.1	+3.9	2.2	1.7	11.7	0.1	17.3	72.1	0.6
11	Kyren Williams	RB	LA	@ PHI		13.8	+3.6	3.3	2.5	16.3	0.1	14.1	60.1	0.5
12	David Montgomery ⚠	RB	HOU	vs DAL		13.7	+3.5	2.8	2.2	16.8	0.1	13.6	58.4	0.6
13	Jaylen Warren	RB	PIT	@ CLE		13.5	+3.3	3.5	2.9	18.1	0.1	15.2	62.3	0.4
14	Ashton Jeanty	RB	LV	vs KC		13.0	+2.8	4.0	3.1	21.9	0.2	12.3	48.9	0.3
15	Cam Skattebo thin prior (50 touches)	RB	NYG	vs ARI		13.0	+2.7	3.0	2.3	19.3	0.1	11.9	53.5	0.5
16	Chuba Hubbard	RB	CAR	vs DET		12.9	+2.7	3.1	2.4	16.2	0.1	14.2	60.2	0.4
17	Javonte Williams	RB	DAL	@ HOU		12.5	+2.3	3.7	2.8	16.0	0.1	13.1	51.9	0.4
18	Saquon Barkley	RB	PHI	vs LA		12.3	+2.1	2.8	2.1	14.2	0.1	14.1	59.9	0.4
19	Bhayshul Tuten thin prior (42 touches)	RB	JAX	@ CIN		12.1	+1.9	2.9	2.2	17.2	0.1	11.6	48.6	0.5
20	Jacory Croskey-Merritt	RB	WAS	vs IND		11.7	+1.5	2.0	1.6	12.6	0.1	12.2	57.3	0.5
21	Quinshon Judkins	RB	CLE	vs PIT		11.6	+1.4	3.2	2.4	18.0	0.1	11.8	46.2	0.4
22	Jeremiyah Love thin prior (0 touches)	RB	ARI	@ NYG		11.6	+1.3	3.5	2.4	17.6	0.1	12.3	48.0	0.3
23	Emanuel Wilson ⚠	RB	SEA	vs LAC		11.5	+1.3	2.0	1.6	11.3	0.1	13.8	59.4	0.4
24	Rhamondre Stevenson	RB	NE	@ BUF		11.4	+1.2	3.4	2.8	18.9	0.1	10.4	41.6	0.4
25	Alvin Kamara	RB	NO	vs ATL		11.0	+0.8	3.6	2.9	18.5	0.1	12.1	42.4	0.3
26	Omarion Hampton	RB	LAC	@ SEA		10.7	+0.5	2.5	2.0	13.0	0.1	12.2	49.1	0.4
27	Aaron Jones	RB	MIN	vs MIA		10.6	+0.4	3.3	2.5	16.0	0.1	13.1	45.9	0.2
28	J.K. Dobbins	RB	DEN	@ SF		10.4	+0.2	2.0	1.6	9.6	0.0	12.1	52.9	0.4
29	Braelon Allen thin prior (37 touches)	RB	NYJ	@ CHI		10.2	+0.0	2.8	2.1	15.4	0.1	10.5	42.2	0.3
30	Ollie Gordon II thin prior (35 touches)	RB	MIA	@ MIN		10.0	-0.3	2.8	2.2	14.1	0.1	11.1	38.0	0.3
31	Tony Pollard	RB	TEN	@ BAL		9.7	-0.6	2.7	2.1	12.0	0.1	12.9	45.6	0.3
32	Kaleb Johnson thin prior (14 touches)	RB	GB	@ TB		9.3	-0.9	2.3	1.8	12.9	0.1	11.5	41.4	0.3
33	RJ Harvey	RB	DEN	@ SF		8.3	-1.9	3.0	2.3	17.2	0.1	5.8	22.9	0.2
34	MarShawn Lloyd thin prior (2 touches)	RB	GB	@ TB		8.0	-2.3	1.5	1.2	8.7	0.0	10.0	39.6	0.3
35	Kenny Gainwell ⚠	RB	TB	vs GB		7.8	-2.4	2.4	2.0	13.9	0.1	6.4	28.4	0.2
36	TreVeyon Henderson	RB	NE	@ BUF		7.5	-2.7	1.2	0.9	6.3	0.0	8.1	39.0	0.3
37	Kyle Monangai	RB	CHI	vs NYJ		7.3	-2.9	1.4	1.1	9.1	0.0	7.6	36.4	0.2
38	Tyler Allgeier ⚠	RB	ARI	@ NYG		7.2	-3.0	1.9	1.5	11.3	0.1	6.7	27.7	0.2
39	Keaton Mitchell thin prior (43 touches)	RB	LAC	@ SEA		6.8	-3.5	1.7	1.3	9.3	0.0	6.7	32.0	0.2
40	Tyler Goodson thin prior (17 touches)	RB	DAL	@ HOU		6.7	-3.5	1.6	1.3	8.2	0.0	7.8	31.4	0.2
41	Woody Marks	RB	HOU	vs DAL		6.6	-3.6	1.8	1.3	10.9	0.1	6.9	28.5	0.2
42	Blake Corum	RB	LA	@ PHI		6.6	-3.6	1.5	1.1	7.3	0.0	7.4	32.0	0.2
43	Chris Rodriguez Jr. ⚠	RB	JAX	@ CIN		6.4	-3.8	1.0	0.8	5.6	0.0	7.3	32.6	0.3
44	Raheim Sanders thin prior (14 touches)	RB	CLE	vs PIT		6.4	-3.8	2.3	1.8	14.1	0.1	4.4	18.7	0.1
45	George Holani thin prior (12 touches)	RB	SEA	vs LAC		6.4	-3.8	1.8	1.4	10.2	0.1	6.1	25.1	0.2
46	Kendre Miller thin prior (43 touches)	RB	NO	vs ATL		6.4	-3.9	1.4	1.1	9.2	0.0	6.5	28.5	0.2
47	Brian Robinson ⚠	RB	ATL	@ NO		6.3	-3.9	1.2	0.9	6.4	0.0	8.1	31.9	0.2
48	Kaelon Black thin prior (0 touches)	RB	SF	vs DEN		6.2	-4.1	1.2	0.8	5.9	0.0	8.4	32.2	0.2
49	Tank Bigsby	RB	PHI	vs LA		6.0	-4.2	1.4	1.0	7.9	0.0	5.8	27.8	0.2
50	Ty Johnson thin prior (43 touches)	RB	BUF	vs NE		5.8	-4.4	2.0	1.6	13.0	0.1	4.3	17.3	0.1
51	Najee Harris ⚠	RB	NYG	vs ARI		5.8	-4.5	1.0	0.8	5.9	0.0	7.3	30.0	0.2
52	Sione Vaki thin prior (2 touches)	RB	DET	@ CAR		5.4	-4.8	1.2	1.0	7.5	0.0	5.5	24.4	0.2
53	Kaytron Allen thin prior (0 touches)	RB	WAS	vs IND		5.4	-4.8	0.9	0.6	5.0	0.0	7.5	29.1	0.2
54	Justice Hill thin prior (40 touches)	RB	BAL	vs TEN		5.2	-5.0	1.3	1.0	8.1	0.0	5.0	21.5	0.2
55	Samaje Perine	RB	CIN	vs JAX		5.2	-5.0	1.9	1.6	10.8	0.0	4.2	16.4	0.1
56	Travis Homer thin prior (2 touches)	RB	PIT	@ CLE		5.2	-5.0	1.0	0.8	4.9	0.0	6.9	26.3	0.2
57	AJ Dillon thin prior (42 touches)	RB	CAR	vs DET		5.1	-5.1	1.1	0.9	6.3	0.0	6.4	25.0	0.2
58	Isaiah Davis thin prior (30 touches)	RB	NYJ	@ CHI		5.0	-5.2	1.1	0.8	6.5	0.0	5.1	24.1	0.2
59	DeeJay Dallas thin prior (6 touches)	RB	MIN	vs MIA		5.0	-5.3	1.4	1.1	7.9	0.0	4.7	20.4	0.1
60	Emmett Johnson thin prior (0 touches)	RB	KC	@ LV		4.9	-5.3	1.5	1.1	7.7	0.0	5.5	19.8	0.1
61	Mike Washington Jr. thin prior (0 touches)	RB	LV	vs KC		4.4	-5.8	1.0	0.7	5.2	0.0	5.4	21.1	0.2
62	Tyjae Spears	RB	TEN	@ BAL	Q · 72%	4.3	-5.9	1.5	1.2	8.0	0.0	3.8	14.6	0.1
63	Seth McGowan thin prior (0 touches)	RB	IND	@ WAS		4.2	-6.1	1.1	0.7	5.7	0.0	4.9	18.7	0.1
64	Jaylen Wright	RB	MIA	@ MIN		4.1	-6.2	1.0	0.8	5.2	0.0	5.0	19.1	0.1
65	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	RB	NYG	vs ARI		3.6	-6.6	0.7	0.5	4.1	0.0	4.4	19.2	0.1
66	Will Shipley thin prior (16 touches)	RB	PHI	vs LA		3.6	-6.7	1.2	0.9	6.9	0.0	3.0	12.5	0.1
67	Sean Tucker	RB	TB	vs GB		3.5	-6.7	0.7	0.5	4.1	0.0	3.4	15.2	0.2
68	Chris Brooks thin prior (28 touches)	RB	GB	@ TB		3.4	-6.8	0.8	0.6	4.4	0.0	4.1	16.5	0.1
69	Kimani Vidal	RB	LAC	@ SEA		3.2	-7.0	1.0	0.8	5.8	0.0	3.1	12.3	0.1
70	Tyler Badie thin prior (16 touches)	RB	DEN	@ SF		2.9	-7.3	1.1	0.8	5.7	0.0	2.3	9.7	0.1
71	Kene Nwangwu thin prior (8 touches)	RB	NYJ	@ CHI		2.9	-7.4	0.7	0.5	3.7	0.0	3.4	13.2	0.1
72	Nicholas Singleton thin prior (0 touches)	RB	TEN	@ BAL		2.9	-7.4	0.8	0.5	3.7	0.0	3.8	13.1	0.1
73	Corey Kiner thin prior (6 touches)	RB	NE	@ BUF		2.8	-7.4	0.5	0.4	2.8	0.0	3.4	15.0	0.1
74	Velus Jones Jr. thin prior (2 touches)	RB	SEA	vs LAC		2.7	-7.5	0.6	0.4	4.7	0.0	2.7	11.8	0.1
75	Jaleel McLaughlin ⚠	RB	CLE	vs PIT		2.6	-7.6	0.7	0.6	3.8	0.0	2.5	11.8	0.1
76	LeQuint Allen Jr. thin prior (12 touches)	RB	JAX	@ CIN		2.6	-7.6	1.0	0.8	5.9	0.0	1.7	7.3	0.0
77	Carlos Washington thin prior (0 touches)	RB	MIA	@ MIN		2.5	-7.8	0.7	0.5	3.0	0.0	3.3	11.4	0.1
78	Roschon Johnson thin prior (34 touches)	RB	CHI	vs NYJ		2.4	-7.8	0.5	0.4	3.4	0.0	2.3	10.0	0.1
79	Austin Ekeler	RB	WAS	vs IND		2.4	-7.8	0.6	0.5	3.4	0.0	2.9	10.3	0.1
80	Bam Knight thin prior (42 touches)	RB	ARI	@ NYG		2.3	-8.0	0.5	0.4	3.1	0.0	2.3	9.5	0.1
81	Demond Claiborne thin prior (0 touches)	RB	MIN	vs MIA		2.3	-8.0	0.7	0.5	3.8	0.0	2.3	9.0	0.1
82	Ameer Abdullah thin prior (30 touches)	RB	JAX	@ CIN		2.2	-8.0	0.9	0.7	4.2	0.0	1.8	6.5	0.0
83	CJ Donaldson thin prior (0 touches)	RB	NO	vs ATL		2.2	-8.0	0.6	0.4	3.4	0.0	2.4	9.4	0.1
84	Dare Ogunbowale thin prior (16 touches)	RB	HOU	vs DAL		2.0	-8.2	0.7	0.5	3.3	0.0	2.1	7.3	0.1
85	Anthony Tyus III thin prior (0 touches)	RB	CAR	vs DET		1.9	-8.3	0.5	0.4	2.8	0.0	2.2	8.3	0.1
86	Dean Connors thin prior (0 touches)	RB	LA	@ PHI		1.7	-8.6	0.5	0.4	2.4	0.0	2.0	7.1	0.1
87	Brashard Smith thin prior (22 touches)	RB	KC	@ LV		1.6	-8.6	0.6	0.5	3.5	0.0	1.3	5.1	0.0
88	Tahj Brooks thin prior (8 touches)	RB	CIN	vs JAX		1.6	-8.6	0.5	0.4	2.8	0.0	1.4	6.1	0.0
89	Jacob Saylors thin prior (1 touches)	RB	DET	@ CAR		1.5	-8.7	0.4	0.3	2.0	0.0	1.5	6.8	0.0
90	Rasheen Ali thin prior (6 touches)	RB	BAL	vs TEN		1.4	-8.8	0.3	0.2	1.9	0.0	1.5	6.9	0.0
91	Craig Reynolds thin prior (19 touches)	RB	WAS	vs IND		1.3	-8.9	0.6	0.4	3.0	0.0	1.0	3.7	0.0
92	Julius Chestnut thin prior (12 touches)	RB	TEN	@ BAL		1.3	-8.9	0.6	0.5	3.3	0.0	0.7	2.7	0.0
93	Ray Davis	RB	BUF	vs NE	Q · 66%	1.3	-8.9	0.3	0.2	1.6	0.0	1.5	6.3	0.0
94	Dylan Laube thin prior (4 touches)	RB	LV	vs KC		1.3	-8.9	0.3	0.3	1.9	0.0	1.3	5.3	0.0

VORP = this player's points minus the points of the last startable player at his position (hover the VORP cell to see who). Baseline rank = teams × starters, with FLEX split RB/WR/TE 45/45/10.

Known limitations

Thin priors over-projected QBs. Efficiency comes from 2023–25, regressed toward the league average by sample size. Over Weeks 1–4, QB1s whose prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted dropbacks were projected +3.9 PPR a game too high (9 QBs; established QB1s +0.1). Those rows carry a thin prior chip. From Week 7 (model n8-v3) a QB's passing rates also read his own 2026 dropbacks, weighted against the prior's sample plus a fixed anchor, so a few snaps barely move them. On Weeks 5–6 this halved the thin-QB bias. Rushing rates and the game lines still use the prior: the game-level check of the same change failed.
Team pass volume is a 2023–25 prior too; in-season, only player shares blend toward what is observed. Blending team volume in-season was tested twice and lost to the prior both times.