NFL Player Projections
Week 5 — opponent-adjusted (this week's defence, home/away), availability-weighted, byes zeroed. Components (volume × efficiency) with scoring applied as a view. Model n8-v2 · updated 18d ago.
League & scoring settings — server-side, from your stored component projections; the URL is the saved config
66 players · ranked by VORP under standard scoring, 12-team league (1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1FLEX). thin prior (n) = the efficiency prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted 2023–25 dropbacks (QB) or 55 touches (RB/WR/TE), so the league average carries about half or more of the line's efficiency; ⚠ = low-sample / rookie (archetype-driven). A designation like Q · 60% means the line is weighted by that play probability; BYE rows project 0 and are kept visible.
Replacement level (VORP is measured against these): QB12 Brock Purdy · 17.8 pts · RB29 Will Shipley · 7.0 pts · WR41 DeMario Douglas · 5.6 pts · TE13 Hunter Henry · 5.1 pts
| # | Player | Pos | Tm | Opp | Status | Pts | VORP | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | RecTD | Car | RuYd | RuTD | PaAtt | PaYd | PaTD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Malik Willis thin prior (39 dropbacks) | QB | MIA | vs CIN | 20.5 | +2.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.8 | 19.9 | 0.3 | 31.4 | 271.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | |
| 2 | Josh Allen | QB | BUF | @ LA | 20.3 | +2.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.4 | 29.9 | 0.6 | 30.9 | 219.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | |
| 3 | Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | vs TB | 20.0 | +2.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | 11.3 | 0.2 | 36.2 | 280.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | |
| 4 | Joe Burrow | QB | CIN | @ MIA | 20.0 | +2.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 9.5 | 0.1 | 36.8 | 264.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | |
| 5 | Drake Maye | QB | NE | vs LV | 19.9 | +2.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 19.5 | 0.2 | 30.9 | 259.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | |
| 6 | Jared Goff | QB | DET | @ ARI | 19.1 | +1.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 7.7 | 0.1 | 33.8 | 265.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | |
| 7 | Jalen Hurts | QB | PHI | @ JAX | 18.8 | +1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.5 | 25.9 | 0.5 | 29.7 | 209.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | |
| 8 | Matthew Stafford | QB | LA | vs BUF | 18.5 | +0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 7.7 | 0.1 | 34.1 | 251.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | |
| 9 | Jayden Daniels | QB | WAS | vs NYG | 18.4 | +0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 22.2 | 0.3 | 30.8 | 232.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | |
| 10 | Deshaun Watson thin prior (112 dropbacks) | QB | CLE | @ NYJ | 18.0 | +0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.8 | 21.1 | 0.3 | 35.0 | 231.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | |
| 11 | Justin Herbert | QB | LAC | vs DEN | 17.9 | +0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.6 | 17.9 | 0.2 | 33.1 | 238.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | |
| 12 | Brock Purdy | QB | SF | @ SEA | 17.8 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.3 | 13.7 | 0.2 | 32.1 | 238.8 | 1.6 | 0.9 | |
| 13 | Sam Darnold | QB | SEA | vs SF | 17.7 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 6.6 | 0.1 | 31.6 | 258.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | |
| 14 | C.J. Stroud | QB | HOU | @ TEN | 17.2 | -0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 9.9 | 0.1 | 33.9 | 252.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | |
| 15 | Jacoby Brissett | QB | ARI | vs DET | 17.1 | -0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 11.2 | 0.2 | 34.8 | 240.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | |
| 16 | Jordan Love | QB | GB | vs CHI | 17.0 | -0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 9.6 | 0.1 | 30.1 | 235.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | |
| 17 | Trevor Lawrence | QB | JAX | vs PHI | 17.0 | -0.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | 12.6 | 0.2 | 33.4 | 232.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 | |
| 18 | Bo Nix | QB | DEN | @ LAC | 16.2 | -1.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.8 | 15.9 | 0.2 | 33.9 | 209.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | |
| 19 | Tyler Shough | QB | NO | vs MIN | 16.2 | -1.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.3 | 14.3 | 0.2 | 34.0 | 232.7 | 1.2 | 0.8 | |
| 20 | Jameis Winston thin prior (140 dropbacks) | QB | NYG | @ WAS | 16.0 | -1.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 7.3 | 0.1 | 32.1 | 242.3 | 1.4 | 0.9 | |
| 21 | Geno Smith | QB | NYJ | vs CLE | 15.5 | -2.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.5 | 15.0 | 0.2 | 32.4 | 219.6 | 1.3 | 1.0 | |
| 22 | Michael Penix Jr. | QB | ATL | vs BAL | 15.3 | -2.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 7.6 | 0.1 | 32.2 | 234.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | |
| 23 | Aaron Rodgers | QB | PIT | vs IND | 15.2 | -2.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 9.0 | 0.1 | 31.2 | 208.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | |
| 24 | Jalon Daniels thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | TB | @ DAL | 15.0 | -2.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.2 | 12.3 | 0.2 | 33.1 | 205.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | |
| 25 | Tyson Bagent thin prior (32 dropbacks) | QB | CHI | @ GB | 15.0 | -2.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 9.3 | 0.2 | 32.9 | 221.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | |
| 26 | Kirk Cousins | QB | LV | @ NE | 14.7 | -3.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 6.6 | 0.1 | 32.9 | 221.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | |
| 27 | Daniel Jones | QB | IND | @ PIT | 14.5 | -3.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 8.3 | 0.1 | 32.0 | 218.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | |
| 28 | Kyler Murray | QB | MIN | @ NO | 14.4 | -3.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 12.6 | 0.2 | 31.5 | 203.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 | |
| 29 | Cam Ward | QB | TEN | vs HOU | 13.7 | -4.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 11.5 | 0.2 | 32.0 | 196.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | |
| 30 | Tyler Huntley thin prior (90 dropbacks) | QB | BAL | @ ATL | 13.4 | -4.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 12.4 | 0.2 | 27.5 | 183.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | |
| 31 | Carson Wentz thin prior (106 dropbacks) | QB | MIN | @ NO | 1.1 | -16.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 6.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 32 | Case Keenum thin prior (12 dropbacks) | QB | CHI | @ GB | 1.0 | -16.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 5.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 33 | Athan Kaliakmanis thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | WAS | vs NYG | 1.0 | -16.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 5.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 34 | Spencer Rattler | QB | NO | vs MIN | 0.7 | -17.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 4.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 35 | Anthony Richardson thin prior (103 dropbacks) | QB | IND | @ PIT | 0.7 | -17.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 3.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 36 | Cade Klubnik thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | NYJ | vs CLE | 0.6 | -17.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 37 | Tommy DeVito thin prior (58 dropbacks) | QB | NE | vs LV | 0.6 | -17.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 38 | Mason Rudolph thin prior (115 dropbacks) | QB | PIT | vs IND | 0.6 | -17.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 2.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 39 | Drew Lock thin prior (76 dropbacks) | QB | SEA | vs SF | 0.6 | -17.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 40 | Sam Howell thin prior (141 dropbacks) | QB | DAL | vs TB | 0.5 | -17.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 41 | Mac Jones | QB | SF | @ SEA | 0.5 | -17.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 2.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 42 | Stetson Bennett thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | LA | vs BUF | 0.5 | -17.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 43 | Kyle McCord thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | MIA | vs CIN | 0.5 | -17.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 44 | Tanner McKee thin prior (37 dropbacks) | QB | PHI | @ JAX | 0.5 | -17.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 45 | Joe Fagnano thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | BAL | @ ATL | 0.5 | -17.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 46 | Jarrett Stidham thin prior (15 dropbacks) | QB | DEN | @ LAC | 0.5 | -17.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 47 | Quinn Ewers thin prior (46 dropbacks) | QB | JAX | vs PHI | 0.5 | -17.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 48 | J.J. McCarthy thin prior (135 dropbacks) | QB | NYG | @ WAS | 0.5 | -17.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 49 | Joshua Dobbs thin prior (109 dropbacks) | QB | DET | @ ARI | 0.4 | -17.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 50 | Tyrod Taylor thin prior (120 dropbacks) | QB | GB | vs CHI | 0.4 | -17.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 51 | Kyle Allen thin prior (4 dropbacks) | QB | BUF | @ LA | 0.4 | -17.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 52 | Shedeur Sanders thin prior (118 dropbacks) | QB | CLE | @ NYJ | 0.4 | -17.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 53 | DJ Uiagalelei thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | LAC | vs DEN | 0.4 | -17.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 54 | Davis Mills thin prior (103 dropbacks) | QB | HOU | @ TEN | 0.4 | -17.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 55 | Tua Tagovailoa | QB | ATL | vs BAL | 0.4 | -17.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 56 | Mitchell Trubisky thin prior (48 dropbacks) | QB | TEN | vs HOU | 0.4 | -17.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 57 | Gardner Minshew | QB | ARI | vs DET | 0.3 | -17.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 58 | Fernando Mendoza thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | LV | @ NE | 0.3 | -17.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 59 | Joe Flacco | QB | CIN | @ MIA | 0.3 | -17.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 60 | Bryce Young | QB | CAR | BYE | BYE | 0.0 | -17.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 61 | Kenny Pickett thin prior (110 dropbacks) | QB | CAR | BYE | BYE | 0.0 | -17.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 62 | Haynes King thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | CAR | BYE | BYE | 0.0 | -17.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 63 | Patrick Mahomes | QB | KC | BYE | BYE | 0.0 | -17.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 64 | Justin Fields | QB | KC | BYE | BYE | 0.0 | -17.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 65 | Garrett Nussmeier thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | KC | BYE | BYE | 0.0 | -17.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 66 | Cole Payton thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | PHI | @ JAX | 0.0 | -17.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
VORP = this player's points minus the points of the last startable player at his position (hover the VORP cell to see who). Baseline rank = teams × starters, with FLEX split RB/WR/TE 45/45/10.
Known limitations
- Thin priors over-projected QBs. Efficiency comes from 2023–25, regressed toward the league average by sample size. Over Weeks 1–4, QB1s whose prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted dropbacks were projected +3.9 PPR a game too high (9 QBs; established QB1s +0.1). Those rows carry a thin prior chip. From Week 7 (model n8-v3) a QB's passing rates also read his own 2026 dropbacks, weighted against the prior's sample plus a fixed anchor, so a few snaps barely move them. On Weeks 5–6 this halved the thin-QB bias. Rushing rates and the game lines still use the prior: the game-level check of the same change failed.
- Team pass volume is a 2023–25 prior too; in-season, only player shares blend toward what is observed. Blending team volume in-season was tested twice and lost to the prior both times.