NFL Player Projections

Week 8 — opponent-adjusted (this week's defence, home/away), availability-weighted, byes zeroed. Components (volume × efficiency) with scoring applied as a view. Model n8-v3 · updated 3h ago.

Week: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8• Season Position: All QB RB WR TE

Scoring: PPR Half Standard DK Rank by: VORP Points ⬇ CSV

League & scoring settings — server-side, from your stored component projections; the URL is the saved config

88 players · ranked by VORP under ppr scoring, 12-team league (1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1FLEX). thin prior (n) = the efficiency prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted 2023–25 dropbacks (QB) or 55 touches (RB/WR/TE), so the league average carries about half or more of the line's efficiency; ⚠ = low-sample / rookie (archetype-driven). A designation like Q · 60% means the line is weighted by that play probability; BYE rows project 0 and are kept visible.

Replacement level (VORP is measured against these): QB12 Sam Darnold · 16.8 pts · RB29 RJ Harvey · 8.2 pts · WR41 Xavier Worthy · 8.6 pts · TE13 Hunter Henry · 8.1 pts

#	Player	Pos	Tm	Opp	Status	Pts	VORP	Car	RuYd	RuTD	PaAtt	PaYd	PaTD	INT
1	Joe Burrow	QB	CIN	vs TEN		22.9	+6.1	2.4	10.5	0.2	36.8	294.2	2.4	0.6
2	Josh Allen	QB	BUF	vs BAL		22.3	+5.5	6.4	30.8	0.6	30.9	248.9	1.6	0.7
3	Dak Prescott	QB	DAL	vs ARI		20.1	+3.3	2.5	10.6	0.2	36.2	280.5	1.9	0.7
4	Trevor Lawrence	QB	JAX	vs IND		19.9	+3.1	2.8	13.1	0.2	33.4	260.9	1.9	0.8
5	Drake Maye	QB	NE	@ MIA		19.5	+2.7	4.2	19.5	0.2	30.9	251.9	1.7	0.8
6	Jared Goff	QB	DET	vs MIN		18.4	+1.6	2.0	6.9	0.1	33.8	253.6	1.9	0.5
7	Lamar Jackson	QB	BAL	@ BUF		18.3	+1.5	4.2	22.3	0.2	27.5	219.3	1.6	0.4
8	Baker Mayfield	QB	TB	vs ATL		18.2	+1.4	2.6	13.6	0.2	33.1	247.0	1.7	0.7
9	Matthew Stafford	QB	LA	vs LAC		17.6	+0.8	1.9	6.1	0.1	34.1	247.2	1.8	0.7
10	Jayden Daniels	QB	WAS	vs PHI		17.6	+0.8	5.0	25.3	0.3	30.8	209.4	1.4	0.5
11	Jordan Love	QB	GB	vs CAR		17.0	+0.2	1.7	8.0	0.1	30.1	240.3	1.6	0.6
12	Sam Darnold	QB	SEA	vs CHI		16.8	+0.0	1.3	5.2	0.1	31.6	254.6	1.7	1.0
13	Kirk Cousins	QB	LV	@ NYJ		16.8	-0.0	1.9	6.4	0.1	32.9	236.5	1.7	0.7
14	Michael Penix Jr.	QB	ATL	@ TB		16.7	-0.1	2.2	8.2	0.1	32.2	236.3	1.5	0.4
15	Geno Smith	QB	NYJ	vs LV		16.7	-0.1	2.2	9.1	0.1	32.4	249.5	1.5	0.8
16	Malik Willis thin prior (39 dropbacks)	QB	MIA	vs NE		16.7	-0.1	4.1	20.0	0.3	31.4	238.5	1.1	0.8
17	Bo Nix	QB	DEN	vs KC		16.6	-0.2	3.5	16.2	0.2	33.9	218.8	1.4	0.6
18	Deshaun Watson thin prior (112 dropbacks)	QB	CLE	@ PIT		16.6	-0.2	4.2	18.1	0.3	35.0	228.6	1.2	0.6
19	Patrick Mahomes	QB	KC	@ DEN		16.4	-0.4	2.6	12.7	0.2	34.8	230.7	1.4	0.7
20	Justin Herbert	QB	LAC	@ LA		15.9	-0.9	3.8	17.9	0.2	33.1	216.7	1.3	0.8
21	Caleb Williams	QB	CHI	@ SEA		15.8	-0.9	3.5	15.9	0.2	32.9	214.6	1.3	0.4
22	Jacoby Brissett	QB	ARI	@ DAL		15.5	-1.3	2.4	10.6	0.1	34.8	218.5	1.4	0.6
23	Bryce Young	QB	CAR	@ GB		14.7	-2.1	2.0	8.7	0.1	31.8	207.0	1.4	0.6
24	Kyler Murray	QB	MIN	@ DET		14.0	-2.8	2.7	13.8	0.2	31.5	201.0	1.1	0.6
25	Aaron Rodgers	QB	PIT	vs CLE		13.8	-3.0	1.8	7.4	0.1	31.2	189.5	1.4	0.6
26	Tanner McKee thin prior (37 dropbacks)	QB	PHI	@ WAS		13.2	-3.5	2.6	10.5	0.2	29.7	187.0	1.0	0.4
27	Daniel Jones	QB	IND	@ JAX		13.0	-3.8	2.3	9.3	0.2	32.0	205.2	0.9	0.8
28	Cam Ward	QB	TEN	@ CIN		12.9	-3.9	2.3	10.2	0.2	32.0	196.6	0.9	0.6
29	Tyler Huntley thin prior (90 dropbacks)	QB	BAL	@ BUF		2.1	-14.7	2.5	11.8	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
30	Jalon Daniels thin prior (0 dropbacks)	QB	TB	vs ATL		1.6	-15.2	2.1	8.5	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
31	Marcus Mariota thin prior (141 dropbacks)	QB	WAS	vs PHI		1.3	-15.5	1.6	7.7	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
32	Carson Wentz thin prior (106 dropbacks)	QB	MIN	@ DET		0.9	-15.9	1.2	4.9	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
33	Tyson Bagent thin prior (32 dropbacks)	QB	CHI	@ SEA		0.7	-16.1	1.0	3.8	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
34	Mason Rudolph thin prior (115 dropbacks)	QB	PIT	vs CLE		0.7	-16.1	0.9	3.6	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
35	Anthony Richardson thin prior (103 dropbacks)	QB	IND	@ JAX		0.7	-16.1	0.8	3.7	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
36	Joe Milton III thin prior (21 dropbacks)	QB	PHI	@ WAS		0.6	-16.2	0.8	3.4	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
37	Kenny Pickett thin prior (110 dropbacks)	QB	CAR	@ GB		0.6	-16.2	0.8	3.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
38	Tyrod Taylor thin prior (120 dropbacks)	QB	GB	vs CAR		0.6	-16.2	0.7	3.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
39	Athan Kaliakmanis thin prior (0 dropbacks)	QB	WAS	vs PHI		0.6	-16.2	0.8	3.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
40	Sam Howell thin prior (141 dropbacks)	QB	DAL	vs ARI		0.6	-16.2	0.6	2.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
41	Tommy DeVito thin prior (58 dropbacks)	QB	NE	@ MIA		0.5	-16.3	0.7	2.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
42	Case Keenum thin prior (12 dropbacks)	QB	CHI	@ SEA		0.5	-16.3	0.7	2.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
43	Stetson Bennett thin prior (0 dropbacks)	QB	LA	vs LAC		0.5	-16.3	0.6	2.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
44	Kyle McCord thin prior (0 dropbacks)	QB	MIA	vs NE		0.5	-16.3	0.6	2.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
45	Quinn Ewers thin prior (46 dropbacks)	QB	JAX	vs IND		0.5	-16.3	0.6	2.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
46	Fernando Mendoza thin prior (0 dropbacks)	QB	LV	@ NYJ		0.5	-16.4	0.6	2.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
47	Drew Lock thin prior (76 dropbacks)	QB	SEA	vs CHI		0.5	-16.4	0.5	2.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
48	Joshua Dobbs thin prior (109 dropbacks)	QB	DET	vs MIN		0.4	-16.4	0.5	2.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
49	Kyle Allen thin prior (4 dropbacks)	QB	BUF	vs BAL		0.4	-16.4	0.6	2.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
50	Jarrett Stidham thin prior (15 dropbacks)	QB	DEN	vs KC		0.4	-16.4	0.5	2.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
51	DJ Uiagalelei thin prior (0 dropbacks)	QB	LAC	@ LA		0.4	-16.4	0.5	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
52	Shedeur Sanders thin prior (118 dropbacks)	QB	CLE	@ PIT		0.3	-16.4	0.4	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
53	Mitchell Trubisky thin prior (48 dropbacks)	QB	TEN	@ CIN		0.3	-16.4	0.5	1.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
54	Justin Fields	QB	KC	@ DEN		0.3	-16.5	0.4	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
55	Joe Flacco	QB	CIN	vs TEN		0.3	-16.5	0.4	1.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
56	Cade Klubnik thin prior (0 dropbacks)	QB	NYJ	vs LV		0.3	-16.5	0.4	1.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
57	Gardner Minshew	QB	ARI	@ DAL		0.3	-16.5	0.4	1.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
58	Tua Tagovailoa	QB	ATL	@ TB		0.3	-16.5	0.4	1.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
59	Jack Strand thin prior (0 dropbacks)	QB	ATL	@ TB		0.2	-16.6	0.3	1.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
60	Carson Beck thin prior (0 dropbacks)	QB	ARI	@ DAL		0.0	-16.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
61	Andy Dalton thin prior (85 dropbacks)	QB	ATL	@ TB		0.0	-16.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
62	Joe Fagnano thin prior (0 dropbacks)	QB	BAL	@ BUF		0.0	-16.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
63	Dillon Gabriel thin prior (102 dropbacks)	QB	CLE	@ PIT		0.0	-16.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
64	Taylen Green thin prior (0 dropbacks)	QB	CLE	@ PIT		0.0	-16.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
65	Sam Ehlinger thin prior (0 dropbacks)	QB	DEN	vs KC		0.0	-16.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
66	C.J. Stroud	QB	HOU	BYE	BYE	0.0	-16.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
67	Davis Mills thin prior (103 dropbacks)	QB	HOU	BYE	BYE	0.0	-16.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
68	Graham Mertz thin prior (0 dropbacks)	QB	HOU	BYE	BYE	0.0	-16.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
69	Riley Leonard thin prior (34 dropbacks)	QB	IND	@ JAX		0.0	-16.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
70	Garrett Nussmeier thin prior (0 dropbacks)	QB	KC	@ DEN		0.0	-16.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
71	Ty Simpson thin prior (0 dropbacks)	QB	LA	vs LAC		0.0	-16.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
72	Aidan O'Connell	QB	LV	@ NYJ		0.0	-16.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
73	Max Brosmer thin prior (42 dropbacks)	QB	MIN	@ DET		0.0	-16.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
74	Behren Morton thin prior (0 dropbacks)	QB	NE	@ MIA		0.0	-16.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
75	Tyler Shough	QB	NO	BYE	BYE	0.0	-16.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
76	Spencer Rattler	QB	NO	BYE	BYE	0.0	-16.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
77	Zach Wilson thin prior (88 dropbacks)	QB	NO	BYE	BYE	0.0	-16.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
78	J.J. McCarthy thin prior (135 dropbacks)	QB	NYG	BYE	BYE	0.0	-16.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
79	Jameis Winston thin prior (140 dropbacks)	QB	NYG	BYE	BYE	0.0	-16.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
80	Jake Haener thin prior (14 dropbacks)	QB	NYG	BYE	BYE	0.0	-16.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
81	Jaxson Dart	QB	NYG	BYE	BYE	0.0	-16.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
82	Cole Payton thin prior (0 dropbacks)	QB	PHI	@ WAS		0.0	-16.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
83	Will Howard thin prior (0 dropbacks)	QB	PIT	vs CLE		0.0	-16.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
84	Drew Allar thin prior (0 dropbacks)	QB	PIT	vs CLE		0.0	-16.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
85	Jalen Milroe thin prior (2 dropbacks)	QB	SEA	vs CHI		0.0	-16.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
86	Brock Purdy	QB	SF	BYE	BYE	0.0	-16.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
87	Mac Jones	QB	SF	BYE	BYE	0.0	-16.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
88	Kurtis Rourke thin prior (0 dropbacks)	QB	SF	BYE	BYE	0.0	-16.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

VORP = this player's points minus the points of the last startable player at his position (hover the VORP cell to see who). Baseline rank = teams × starters, with FLEX split RB/WR/TE 45/45/10.

Known limitations

Thin priors over-projected QBs. Efficiency comes from 2023–25, regressed toward the league average by sample size. Over Weeks 1–4, QB1s whose prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted dropbacks were projected +3.9 PPR a game too high (9 QBs; established QB1s +0.1). Those rows carry a thin prior chip. From Week 7 (model n8-v3) a QB's passing rates also read his own 2026 dropbacks, weighted against the prior's sample plus a fixed anchor, so a few snaps barely move them. On Weeks 5–6 this halved the thin-QB bias. Rushing rates and the game lines still use the prior: the game-level check of the same change failed.
Team pass volume is a 2023–25 prior too; in-season, only player shares blend toward what is observed. Blending team volume in-season was tested twice and lost to the prior both times.