NFL Player Projections
Rest of season, opponent-neutral: each player's per-game line × G, his team's remaining regular-season games as of the run. A player on a reserve list (IR, PUP, NFI, suspended) has G cut to the games he is expected back for, and his row says so; out for season is a 0 that means it. Components (volume × efficiency) with scoring applied as a view. Model n8-v3 · updated 6h ago.
League & scoring settings — server-side, from your stored component projections; the URL is the saved config
93 players · ranked by VORP under half_ppr scoring, 12-team league (1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1FLEX). thin prior (n) = the efficiency prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted 2023–25 dropbacks (QB) or 55 touches (RB/WR/TE), so the league average carries about half or more of the line's efficiency; ⚠ = low-sample / rookie (archetype-driven).
Replacement level (VORP is measured against these): QB12 Lamar Jackson · 187.3 pts · RB29 Jeremiyah Love · 84.6 pts · WR41 Rome Odunze · 73.9 pts · TE13 Greg Dulcich · 64.9 pts
| # | Player | Pos | Tm | G | Status | Pts | VORP | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | RecTD | Car | RuYd | RuTD | PaAtt | PaYd | PaTD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Allen | QB | BUF | 11 | 238.8 | +51.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 70.7 | 343.3 | 6.7 | 339.4 | 2584.4 | 17.5 | 7.3 | |
| 2 | Joe Burrow | QB | CIN | 11 | 219.0 | +31.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 26.2 | 110.4 | 1.6 | 405.0 | 2882.7 | 22.7 | 7.2 | |
| 3 | Malik Willis thin prior (39 dropbacks) | QB | MIA | 11 | 208.2 | +20.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 44.8 | 214.0 | 3.1 | 345.3 | 2725.7 | 16.6 | 6.3 | |
| 4 | Jared Goff | QB | DET | 11 | 207.4 | +20.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 21.8 | 76.4 | 1.3 | 371.4 | 2908.8 | 20.8 | 6.9 | |
| 5 | Justin Herbert | QB | LAC | 11 | 200.7 | +13.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 41.9 | 206.4 | 2.3 | 363.9 | 2644.8 | 17.1 | 6.8 | |
| 6 | Brock Purdy | QB | SF | 10 | 195.2 | +7.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 34.6 | 154.2 | 2.5 | 321.4 | 2589.6 | 17.7 | 8.8 | |
| 7 | Patrick Mahomes | QB | KC | 11 | 191.8 | +4.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 27.9 | 145.4 | 1.8 | 383.2 | 2684.7 | 17.0 | 8.2 | |
| 8 | Trevor Lawrence | QB | JAX | 11 | 191.2 | +3.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 31.2 | 139.2 | 2.5 | 366.9 | 2617.2 | 16.7 | 8.3 | |
| 9 | Drake Maye | QB | NE | 10 | 190.7 | +3.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 41.1 | 198.8 | 2.4 | 309.4 | 2455.7 | 16.4 | 6.4 | |
| 10 | Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | 10 | 189.4 | +2.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 24.5 | 100.6 | 1.5 | 361.8 | 2675.8 | 17.7 | 6.9 | |
| 11 | Jayden Daniels | QB | WAS | 11 | 188.1 | +0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 41.9 | 211.5 | 2.5 | 339.3 | 2414.6 | 15.8 | 6.6 | |
| 12 | Lamar Jackson | QB | BAL | 10 | 187.3 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 40.7 | 217.7 | 2.1 | 275.3 | 2230.6 | 17.3 | 4.9 | |
| 13 | Matthew Stafford | QB | LA | 10 | 180.3 | -7.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 19.0 | 59.8 | 1.1 | 340.5 | 2491.5 | 18.7 | 5.7 | |
| 14 | Baker Mayfield | QB | TB | 10 | 178.4 | -8.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 25.6 | 131.1 | 1.5 | 330.8 | 2374.7 | 17.5 | 7.3 | |
| 15 | Deshaun Watson thin prior (112 dropbacks) | QB | CLE | 10 | 171.9 | -15.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 40.6 | 183.9 | 2.7 | 349.9 | 2277.9 | 13.6 | 7.1 | |
| 16 | Bo Nix | QB | DEN | 10 | 171.0 | -16.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 34.1 | 150.8 | 2.2 | 338.9 | 2248.0 | 15.1 | 6.7 | |
| 17 | Kyler Murray | QB | MIN | 11 | 170.2 | -17.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 29.4 | 158.7 | 1.9 | 346.7 | 2371.0 | 14.0 | 7.1 | |
| 18 | Caleb Williams | QB | CHI | 10 | 168.7 | -18.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 34.9 | 171.8 | 1.9 | 328.6 | 2229.9 | 14.3 | 4.7 | |
| 19 | Jacoby Brissett | QB | ARI | 10 | 168.0 | -19.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 23.7 | 104.6 | 1.5 | 348.1 | 2369.5 | 15.1 | 6.0 | |
| 20 | C.J. Stroud | QB | HOU | 10 | 167.4 | -19.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 22.3 | 98.0 | 1.3 | 339.1 | 2469.2 | 14.6 | 6.5 | |
| 21 | Sam Darnold | QB | SEA | 10 | 166.9 | -20.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 11.9 | 43.9 | 0.7 | 315.6 | 2500.5 | 16.7 | 8.0 | |
| 22 | Tyler Shough | QB | NO | 10 | 164.2 | -23.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 26.8 | 115.9 | 1.9 | 339.9 | 2441.7 | 12.8 | 6.9 | |
| 23 | Daniel Jones | QB | IND | 10 | 154.3 | -33.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 22.9 | 96.5 | 1.6 | 320.0 | 2293.1 | 12.8 | 7.2 | |
| 24 | Michael Penix Jr. | QB | ATL | 10 | 152.8 | -34.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 21.6 | 89.5 | 1.5 | 322.0 | 2301.1 | 12.3 | 5.8 | |
| 25 | Geno Smith | QB | NYJ | 10 | 151.5 | -35.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 21.7 | 89.7 | 1.2 | 323.5 | 2295.8 | 13.3 | 9.1 | |
| 26 | Kirk Cousins | QB | LV | 10 | 150.4 | -36.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 19.2 | 65.1 | 1.2 | 328.6 | 2271.0 | 13.6 | 7.9 | |
| 27 | J.J. McCarthy thin prior (135 dropbacks) | QB | NYG | 10 | 144.7 | -42.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 17.1 | 74.9 | 1.2 | 320.8 | 2147.3 | 13.9 | 11.0 | |
| 28 | Jordan Love | QB | GB | 9 | 142.8 | -44.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 13.9 | 60.2 | 0.8 | 271.0 | 2035.1 | 14.1 | 5.2 | |
| 29 | Tanner McKee thin prior (37 dropbacks) | QB | PHI | 10 | 140.9 | -46.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 56.8 | 0.9 | 296.6 | 2071.8 | 13.3 | 6.2 | |
| 30 | Aaron Rodgers | QB | PIT | 10 | 140.8 | -46.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 18.2 | 71.6 | 1.1 | 311.8 | 1962.0 | 13.6 | 5.5 | |
| 31 | Bryce Young | QB | CAR | 10 | 140.2 | -47.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 17.8 | 82.3 | 1.2 | 318.3 | 2011.9 | 13.0 | 7.1 | |
| 32 | Cam Ward | QB | TEN | 10 | 138.2 | -49.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 23.3 | 100.7 | 1.6 | 320.3 | 2009.9 | 11.0 | 5.2 | |
| 33 | Tyler Huntley thin prior (90 dropbacks) | QB | BAL | 10 | 20.5 | -166.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 24.6 | 116.7 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 34 | Jalon Daniels thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | TB | 10 | 15.7 | -171.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 21.2 | 82.3 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 35 | Jaxson Dart | QB | NYG | 10 | 14.3 | -173.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 15.7 | 75.5 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 36 | Jameis Winston thin prior (140 dropbacks) | QB | NYG | 10 | 13.3 | -174.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 16.3 | 67.6 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 37 | Marcus Mariota thin prior (141 dropbacks) | QB | WAS | 11 | 10.8 | -176.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 13.0 | 64.3 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 38 | Carson Wentz thin prior (106 dropbacks) | QB | MIN | 11 | 10.5 | -176.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 13.0 | 56.4 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 39 | Tyson Bagent thin prior (32 dropbacks) | QB | CHI | 10 | 7.8 | -179.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.6 | 40.8 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 40 | Anthony Richardson thin prior (103 dropbacks) | QB | IND | 10 | 7.0 | -180.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 38.1 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 41 | Mason Rudolph thin prior (115 dropbacks) | QB | PIT | 10 | 6.7 | -180.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.6 | 35.2 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 42 | Kenny Pickett thin prior (110 dropbacks) | QB | CAR | 10 | 5.9 | -181.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.7 | 30.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 43 | Spencer Rattler | QB | NO | 10 | 5.7 | -181.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.9 | 33.5 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 44 | Case Keenum thin prior (12 dropbacks) | QB | CHI | 10 | 5.6 | -181.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.9 | 29.3 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 45 | Mac Jones | QB | SF | 10 | 5.4 | -181.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.7 | 28.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 46 | Sam Howell thin prior (141 dropbacks) | QB | DAL | 10 | 5.3 | -182.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.1 | 27.9 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 47 | Tommy DeVito thin prior (58 dropbacks) | QB | NE | 10 | 5.3 | -182.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.4 | 28.9 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 48 | Athan Kaliakmanis thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | WAS | 11 | 5.2 | -182.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 27.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 49 | Kyle McCord thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | MIA | 11 | 5.0 | -182.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.6 | 26.4 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 50 | Quinn Ewers thin prior (46 dropbacks) | QB | JAX | 11 | 5.0 | -182.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.4 | 26.4 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 51 | Joshua Dobbs thin prior (109 dropbacks) | QB | DET | 11 | 4.9 | -182.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 25.4 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 52 | Kyle Allen thin prior (4 dropbacks) | QB | BUF | 11 | 4.8 | -182.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 24.3 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 53 | Stetson Bennett thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | LA | 10 | 4.6 | -182.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.8 | 24.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 54 | Fernando Mendoza thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | LV | 10 | 4.6 | -182.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.3 | 24.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 55 | Tyrod Taylor thin prior (120 dropbacks) | QB | GB | 9 | 4.6 | -182.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.8 | 25.9 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 56 | Jalen Hurts | QB | PHI | 2.3 | IR · 2.3 of 10 g | 4.4 | -182.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.1 | 21.3 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 57 | DJ Uiagalelei thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | LAC | 11 | 4.3 | -183.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.8 | 22.6 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 58 | Justin Fields | QB | KC | 11 | 3.9 | -183.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.6 | 22.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 59 | Drew Lock thin prior (76 dropbacks) | QB | SEA | 10 | 3.8 | -183.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.7 | 20.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 60 | Jarrett Stidham thin prior (15 dropbacks) | QB | DEN | 10 | 3.8 | -183.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.7 | 19.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 61 | Shedeur Sanders thin prior (118 dropbacks) | QB | CLE | 10 | 3.5 | -183.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 19.8 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 62 | Mitchell Trubisky thin prior (48 dropbacks) | QB | TEN | 10 | 3.5 | -183.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.6 | 17.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 63 | Davis Mills thin prior (103 dropbacks) | QB | HOU | 10 | 3.5 | -183.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.2 | 18.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 64 | Joe Flacco | QB | CIN | 11 | 3.5 | -183.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.9 | 17.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 65 | Joe Milton III thin prior (21 dropbacks) | QB | PHI | 10 | 3.4 | -183.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 18.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 66 | Tua Tagovailoa | QB | ATL | 10 | 2.9 | -184.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.4 | 16.8 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 67 | Cade Klubnik thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | NYJ | 10 | 2.9 | -184.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 15.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 68 | Gardner Minshew | QB | ARI | 10 | 2.9 | -184.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.8 | 14.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 69 | Jack Strand thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | ATL | 10 | 2.5 | -184.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.4 | 13.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 70 | Carson Beck thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | ARI | 10 | 0.0 | -187.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 71 | Andy Dalton thin prior (85 dropbacks) | QB | ATL | 10 | 0.0 | -187.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 72 | Joe Fagnano thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | BAL | 10 | 0.0 | -187.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 73 | Skylar Thompson thin prior (12 dropbacks) | QB | BAL | 0 | IR · out for season | 0.0 | -187.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 74 | Haynes King thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | CAR | 10 | 0.0 | -187.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 75 | Dillon Gabriel thin prior (102 dropbacks) | QB | CLE | 10 | 0.0 | -187.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 76 | Taylen Green thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | CLE | 10 | 0.0 | -187.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 77 | Sam Ehlinger thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | DEN | 10 | 0.0 | -187.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 78 | Graham Mertz thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | HOU | 10 | 0.0 | -187.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 79 | Riley Leonard thin prior (34 dropbacks) | QB | IND | 10 | 0.0 | -187.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 80 | Garrett Nussmeier thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | KC | 11 | 0.0 | -187.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 81 | Ty Simpson thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | LA | 10 | 0.0 | -187.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 82 | Matthew Caldwell thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | LA | 0 | IR · out for season | 0.0 | -187.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 83 | Trey Lance thin prior (45 dropbacks) | QB | LAC | 2.4 | IR · 2.4 of 11 g | 0.0 | -187.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 84 | Aidan O'Connell | QB | LV | 10 | 0.0 | -187.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 85 | Max Brosmer thin prior (42 dropbacks) | QB | MIN | 11 | 0.0 | -187.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 86 | Behren Morton thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | NE | 10 | 0.0 | -187.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 87 | Zach Wilson thin prior (88 dropbacks) | QB | NO | 10 | 0.0 | -187.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 88 | Jake Haener thin prior (14 dropbacks) | QB | NYG | 10 | 0.0 | -187.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 89 | Cole Payton thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | PHI | 10 | 0.0 | -187.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 90 | Will Howard thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | PIT | 10 | 0.0 | -187.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 91 | Drew Allar thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | PIT | 10 | 0.0 | -187.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 92 | Jalen Milroe thin prior (2 dropbacks) | QB | SEA | 10 | 0.0 | -187.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 93 | Kurtis Rourke thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | SF | 10 | 0.0 | -187.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
VORP = this player's points minus the points of the last startable player at his position (hover the VORP cell to see who). Baseline rank = teams × starters, with FLEX split RB/WR/TE 45/45/10.
Known limitations
- Thin priors over-projected QBs. Efficiency comes from 2023–25, regressed toward the league average by sample size. Over Weeks 1–4, QB1s whose prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted dropbacks were projected +3.9 PPR a game too high (9 QBs; established QB1s +0.1). Those rows carry a thin prior chip. From Week 7 (model n8-v3) a QB's passing rates also read his own 2026 dropbacks, weighted against the prior's sample plus a fixed anchor, so a few snaps barely move them. On Weeks 5–6 this halved the thin-QB bias. Rushing rates and the game lines still use the prior: the game-level check of the same change failed.
- Team pass volume is a 2023–25 prior too; in-season, only player shares blend toward what is observed. Blending team volume in-season was tested twice and lost to the prior both times.