NFL Player Projections
Week 4 — opponent-adjusted (this week's defence, home/away), availability-weighted, byes zeroed. Components (volume × efficiency) with scoring applied as a view. Model n8-v2 · updated 25d ago.
League & scoring settings — server-side, from your stored component projections; the URL is the saved config
66 players · ranked by VORP under half_ppr scoring, 12-team league (1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1FLEX). thin prior (n) = the efficiency prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted 2023–25 dropbacks (QB) or 55 touches (RB/WR/TE), so the league average carries about half or more of the line's efficiency; ⚠ = low-sample / rookie (archetype-driven). A designation like Q · 60% means the line is weighted by that play probability; BYE rows project 0 and are kept visible.
Replacement level (VORP is measured against these): QB12 Dak Prescott · 17.4 pts · RB29 Braelon Allen · 9.1 pts · WR41 Khalil Shakir · 7.7 pts · TE13 Cade Otton · 7.3 pts
| # | Player | Pos | Tm | Opp | Status | Pts | VORP | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | RecTD | Car | RuYd | RuTD | PaAtt | PaYd | PaTD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Allen | QB | BUF | vs NE | 22.5 | +5.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.3 | 31.5 | 0.6 | 30.9 | 246.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | |
| 2 | Lamar Jackson | QB | BAL | vs TEN | 21.1 | +3.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.8 | 26.8 | 0.3 | 27.5 | 245.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | |
| 3 | Joe Burrow | QB | CIN | vs JAX | 20.5 | +3.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 9.2 | 0.1 | 36.8 | 272.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | |
| 4 | Jared Goff | QB | DET | @ CAR | 19.3 | +1.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.4 | 8.6 | 0.1 | 33.8 | 265.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | |
| 5 | Jalen Hurts | QB | PHI | vs LA | 18.9 | +1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.8 | 24.5 | 0.5 | 29.7 | 216.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | |
| 6 | Brock Purdy | QB | SF | vs DEN | 18.8 | +1.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.9 | 12.9 | 0.2 | 32.1 | 256.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | |
| 7 | C.J. Stroud | QB | HOU | vs DAL | 18.1 | +0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 10.8 | 0.1 | 33.9 | 265.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 | |
| 8 | Deshaun Watson thin prior (112 dropbacks) | QB | CLE | vs PIT | 18.0 | +0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.5 | 21.0 | 0.3 | 35.0 | 233.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | |
| 9 | Tyler Shough | QB | NO | vs ATL | 18.0 | +0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.4 | 15.1 | 0.2 | 34.0 | 258.7 | 1.4 | 0.7 | |
| 10 | Trevor Lawrence | QB | JAX | @ CIN | 17.7 | +0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | 12.6 | 0.2 | 33.4 | 242.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | |
| 11 | Drake Maye | QB | NE | @ BUF | 17.6 | +0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.6 | 17.3 | 0.2 | 30.9 | 230.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | |
| 12 | Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | @ HOU | 17.4 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.9 | 10.9 | 0.2 | 36.2 | 243.1 | 1.6 | 0.7 | |
| 13 | Patrick Mahomes | QB | KC | @ LV | 17.0 | -0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 12.3 | 0.1 | 34.8 | 239.8 | 1.5 | 0.7 | |
| 14 | Bo Nix | QB | DEN | @ SF | 17.0 | -0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 17.3 | 0.3 | 33.9 | 216.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | |
| 15 | Marcus Mariota thin prior (141 dropbacks) | QB | WAS | vs IND | 16.9 | -0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 12.6 | 0.2 | 30.8 | 238.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | |
| 16 | Sam Darnold | QB | SEA | vs LAC | 16.9 | -0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 5.9 | 0.1 | 31.6 | 249.9 | 1.7 | 0.9 | |
| 17 | Malik Willis thin prior (39 dropbacks) | QB | MIA | @ MIN | 16.8 | -0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.1 | 17.9 | 0.3 | 31.4 | 219.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | |
| 18 | Jameis Winston thin prior (140 dropbacks) | QB | NYG | vs ARI | 16.7 | -0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 9.1 | 0.2 | 32.1 | 250.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | |
| 19 | Jacoby Brissett | QB | ARI | @ NYG | 16.6 | -0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 10.6 | 0.1 | 34.8 | 233.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | |
| 20 | Tyson Bagent thin prior (32 dropbacks) | QB | CHI | vs NYJ | 16.6 | -0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 8.6 | 0.1 | 32.9 | 248.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | |
| 21 | Matthew Stafford | QB | LA | @ PHI | 16.5 | -0.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 6.4 | 0.1 | 34.1 | 226.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | |
| 22 | Justin Herbert | QB | LAC | @ SEA | 16.5 | -1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.4 | 15.4 | 0.2 | 33.1 | 221.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | |
| 23 | Kyler Murray | QB | MIN | vs MIA | 16.1 | -1.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 11.4 | 0.1 | 31.5 | 233.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | |
| 24 | Daniel Jones | QB | IND | @ WAS | 15.9 | -1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 8.4 | 0.1 | 32.0 | 239.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | |
| 25 | Geno Smith | QB | NYJ | @ CHI | 15.8 | -1.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.6 | 14.8 | 0.2 | 32.4 | 222.8 | 1.3 | 0.9 | |
| 26 | Kirk Cousins | QB | LV | vs KC | 15.5 | -1.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.4 | 8.3 | 0.2 | 32.9 | 229.5 | 1.4 | 0.8 | |
| 27 | Jordan Love | QB | GB | @ TB | 15.5 | -2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 6.5 | 0.1 | 30.1 | 220.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | |
| 28 | Jalon Daniels thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | TB | vs GB | 14.8 | -2.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 8.4 | 0.1 | 33.1 | 214.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | |
| 29 | Bryce Young | QB | CAR | vs DET | 14.2 | -3.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 8.5 | 0.1 | 31.8 | 204.4 | 1.3 | 0.7 | |
| 30 | Michael Penix Jr. | QB | ATL | @ NO | 14.2 | -3.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 7.5 | 0.1 | 32.2 | 216.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | |
| 31 | Aaron Rodgers | QB | PIT | @ CLE | 13.2 | -4.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 10.1 | 0.2 | 31.2 | 174.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | |
| 32 | Cam Ward | QB | TEN | @ BAL | 13.1 | -4.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.4 | 9.5 | 0.1 | 32.0 | 190.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 | |
| 33 | Carson Wentz thin prior (106 dropbacks) | QB | MIN | vs MIA | 1.2 | -16.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 6.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 34 | Case Keenum thin prior (12 dropbacks) | QB | CHI | vs NYJ | 1.0 | -16.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 5.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 35 | Anthony Richardson thin prior (103 dropbacks) | QB | IND | @ WAS | 0.8 | -16.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 4.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 36 | Spencer Rattler | QB | NO | vs ATL | 0.7 | -16.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 4.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 37 | Mac Jones | QB | SF | vs DEN | 0.6 | -16.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 3.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 38 | Kenny Pickett thin prior (110 dropbacks) | QB | CAR | vs DET | 0.6 | -16.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 3.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 39 | Mason Rudolph thin prior (115 dropbacks) | QB | PIT | @ CLE | 0.6 | -16.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 40 | Drew Lock thin prior (76 dropbacks) | QB | SEA | vs LAC | 0.6 | -16.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 41 | Tyler Huntley thin prior (90 dropbacks) | QB | BAL | vs TEN | 0.5 | -16.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 42 | Tommy DeVito thin prior (58 dropbacks) | QB | NE | @ BUF | 0.5 | -16.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 43 | Cade Klubnik thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | NYJ | @ CHI | 0.5 | -16.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 2.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 44 | Jarrett Stidham thin prior (15 dropbacks) | QB | DEN | @ SF | 0.5 | -16.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 45 | Easton Stick thin prior (38 dropbacks) | QB | TB | vs GB | 0.5 | -16.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 46 | Athan Kaliakmanis thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | WAS | vs IND | 0.5 | -16.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 47 | Sam Howell thin prior (141 dropbacks) | QB | DAL | @ HOU | 0.5 | -16.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 48 | J.J. McCarthy thin prior (135 dropbacks) | QB | NYG | vs ARI | 0.5 | -17.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 49 | Tanner McKee thin prior (37 dropbacks) | QB | PHI | vs LA | 0.5 | -17.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 50 | Joshua Dobbs thin prior (109 dropbacks) | QB | DET | @ CAR | 0.5 | -17.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 51 | Quinn Ewers thin prior (46 dropbacks) | QB | JAX | @ CIN | 0.5 | -17.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 52 | Kyle McCord thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | MIA | @ MIN | 0.5 | -17.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 53 | Kyle Allen thin prior (4 dropbacks) | QB | BUF | vs NE | 0.5 | -17.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 54 | Davis Mills thin prior (103 dropbacks) | QB | HOU | vs DAL | 0.4 | -17.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 55 | Stetson Bennett thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | LA | @ PHI | 0.4 | -17.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 56 | Shedeur Sanders thin prior (118 dropbacks) | QB | CLE | vs PIT | 0.4 | -17.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 57 | Tyrod Taylor thin prior (120 dropbacks) | QB | GB | @ TB | 0.4 | -17.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 58 | Justin Fields | QB | KC | @ LV | 0.4 | -17.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 59 | Fernando Mendoza thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | LV | vs KC | 0.4 | -17.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 60 | Gardner Minshew | QB | ARI | @ NYG | 0.3 | -17.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 61 | Tua Tagovailoa | QB | ATL | @ NO | 0.3 | -17.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 62 | Joe Flacco | QB | CIN | vs JAX | 0.3 | -17.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 63 | Mitchell Trubisky thin prior (48 dropbacks) | QB | TEN | @ BAL | 0.3 | -17.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 64 | Trey Lance thin prior (45 dropbacks) | QB | LAC | @ SEA | Q · 40% | 0.2 | -17.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 65 | Jake Haener thin prior (14 dropbacks) | QB | NYG | vs ARI | 0.0 | -17.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 66 | Andy Dalton thin prior (85 dropbacks) | QB | PHI | vs LA | 0.0 | -17.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
VORP = this player's points minus the points of the last startable player at his position (hover the VORP cell to see who). Baseline rank = teams × starters, with FLEX split RB/WR/TE 45/45/10.
Known limitations
- Thin priors over-projected QBs. Efficiency comes from 2023–25, regressed toward the league average by sample size. Over Weeks 1–4, QB1s whose prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted dropbacks were projected +3.9 PPR a game too high (9 QBs; established QB1s +0.1). Those rows carry a thin prior chip. From Week 7 (model n8-v3) a QB's passing rates also read his own 2026 dropbacks, weighted against the prior's sample plus a fixed anchor, so a few snaps barely move them. On Weeks 5–6 this halved the thin-QB bias. Rushing rates and the game lines still use the prior: the game-level check of the same change failed.
- Team pass volume is a 2023–25 prior too; in-season, only player shares blend toward what is observed. Blending team volume in-season was tested twice and lost to the prior both times.