NFL Player Projections
Week 3 — opponent-adjusted (this week's defence, home/away), availability-weighted, byes zeroed. Components (volume × efficiency) with scoring applied as a view. Model n8-v2 · updated 32d ago.
League & scoring settings — server-side, from your stored component projections; the URL is the saved config
68 players · ranked by VORP under half_ppr scoring, 12-team league (1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1FLEX). thin prior (n) = the efficiency prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted 2023–25 dropbacks (QB) or 55 touches (RB/WR/TE), so the league average carries about half or more of the line's efficiency; ⚠ = low-sample / rookie (archetype-driven). A designation like Q · 60% means the line is weighted by that play probability; BYE rows project 0 and are kept visible.
Replacement level (VORP is measured against these): QB12 Baker Mayfield · 17.7 pts · RB29 J.K. Dobbins · 9.3 pts · WR41 Kayshon Boutte · 7.8 pts · TE13 Juwan Johnson · 6.5 pts
| # | Player | Pos | Tm | Opp | Status | Pts | VORP | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | RecTD | Car | RuYd | RuTD | PaAtt | PaYd | PaTD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Allen | QB | BUF | vs LAC | 21.6 | +3.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.2 | 31.0 | 0.6 | 30.9 | 234.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | |
| 2 | Jared Goff | QB | DET | vs NYJ | 20.7 | +3.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 7.9 | 0.1 | 33.8 | 288.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | |
| 3 | Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | vs BAL | 20.4 | +2.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 16.2 | 0.2 | 36.2 | 272.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | |
| 4 | Brock Purdy | QB | SF | vs ARI | 20.3 | +2.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 12.4 | 0.2 | 32.1 | 279.3 | 1.9 | 0.9 | |
| 5 | Lamar Jackson | QB | BAL | @ DAL | 19.4 | +1.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.8 | 26.0 | 0.3 | 27.5 | 223.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | |
| 6 | Joe Burrow | QB | CIN | @ PIT | 18.7 | +1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 8.2 | 0.1 | 36.8 | 249.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | |
| 7 | Deshaun Watson thin prior (112 dropbacks) | QB | CLE | vs CAR | 18.4 | +0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.7 | 18.7 | 0.3 | 35.0 | 245.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | |
| 8 | Jalen Hurts | QB | PHI | @ CHI | 18.3 | +0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.7 | 23.1 | 0.4 | 29.7 | 209.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | |
| 9 | Malik Willis thin prior (39 dropbacks) | QB | MIA | vs KC | 18.1 | +0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | 14.0 | 0.2 | 31.4 | 250.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | |
| 10 | Trevor Lawrence | QB | JAX | vs NE | 18.0 | +0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 12.1 | 0.2 | 33.4 | 249.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | |
| 11 | Drake Maye | QB | NE | @ JAX | 18.0 | +0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.5 | 16.3 | 0.2 | 30.9 | 237.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | |
| 12 | Baker Mayfield | QB | TB | vs MIN | 17.7 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.4 | 17.4 | 0.2 | 33.1 | 226.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | |
| 13 | Patrick Mahomes | QB | KC | @ MIA | 17.6 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.6 | 13.3 | 0.2 | 34.8 | 245.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | |
| 14 | Sam Darnold | QB | SEA | @ WAS | 17.6 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 4.9 | 0.1 | 31.6 | 261.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | |
| 15 | Bo Nix | QB | DEN | vs LA | 17.6 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.9 | 17.8 | 0.3 | 33.9 | 225.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | |
| 16 | Tyler Shough | QB | NO | vs LV | 17.5 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 13.2 | 0.2 | 34.0 | 257.7 | 1.4 | 0.7 | |
| 17 | Jameis Winston thin prior (140 dropbacks) | QB | NYG | vs TEN | 17.2 | -0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 9.7 | 0.2 | 32.1 | 255.1 | 1.5 | 0.9 | |
| 18 | Justin Herbert | QB | LAC | @ BUF | 16.9 | -0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.3 | 16.1 | 0.2 | 33.1 | 225.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | |
| 19 | Jordan Love | QB | GB | vs ATL | 16.8 | -0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 7.1 | 0.1 | 30.1 | 239.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | |
| 20 | Matthew Stafford | QB | LA | @ DEN | 16.7 | -0.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 6.3 | 0.1 | 34.1 | 229.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | |
| 21 | C.J. Stroud | QB | HOU | @ IND | 16.6 | -1.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 9.7 | 0.1 | 33.9 | 243.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | |
| 22 | Jacoby Brissett | QB | ARI | @ SF | 16.1 | -1.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 9.3 | 0.1 | 34.8 | 228.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | |
| 23 | Aaron Rodgers | QB | PIT | vs CIN | 15.8 | -1.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 9.7 | 0.1 | 31.2 | 214.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | |
| 24 | Marcus Mariota thin prior (141 dropbacks) | QB | WAS | vs SEA | 15.5 | -2.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 10.5 | 0.1 | 30.8 | 222.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | |
| 25 | Michael Penix Jr. | QB | ATL | @ GB | 14.7 | -3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 8.1 | 0.1 | 32.2 | 223.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | |
| 26 | Daniel Jones | QB | IND | vs HOU | 14.7 | -3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 7.9 | 0.1 | 32.0 | 223.7 | 1.2 | 0.8 | |
| 27 | Geno Smith | QB | NYJ | @ DET | 14.6 | -3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.6 | 10.4 | 0.1 | 32.4 | 217.1 | 1.3 | 0.9 | |
| 28 | Kyler Murray | QB | MIN | @ TB | 14.4 | -3.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 10.2 | 0.1 | 31.5 | 210.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | |
| 29 | Kirk Cousins | QB | LV | @ NO | 14.4 | -3.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 7.4 | 0.1 | 32.9 | 213.8 | 1.3 | 0.8 | |
| 30 | Tyson Bagent thin prior (32 dropbacks) | QB | CHI | vs PHI | Q · 47% | 14.0 | -3.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 4.0 | 0.1 | 32.9 | 222.8 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| 31 | Cam Ward | QB | TEN | @ NYG | 13.9 | -3.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.6 | 11.7 | 0.2 | 32.0 | 197.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | |
| 32 | Bryce Young | QB | CAR | @ CLE | 12.8 | -4.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 9.3 | 0.1 | 31.8 | 179.2 | 1.2 | 0.7 | |
| 33 | Case Keenum thin prior (12 dropbacks) | QB | CHI | vs PHI | 1.4 | -16.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 7.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 34 | Carson Wentz thin prior (106 dropbacks) | QB | MIN | @ TB | 1.1 | -16.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 5.9 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 35 | Sam Howell thin prior (141 dropbacks) | QB | DAL | vs BAL | 0.9 | -16.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 36 | Anthony Richardson thin prior (103 dropbacks) | QB | IND | vs HOU | 0.8 | -16.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 4.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 37 | Mac Jones | QB | SF | vs ARI | 0.6 | -17.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 3.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 38 | Shedeur Sanders thin prior (118 dropbacks) | QB | CLE | vs CAR | 0.6 | -17.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 3.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 39 | Mason Rudolph thin prior (115 dropbacks) | QB | PIT | vs CIN | 0.6 | -17.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 3.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 40 | Kenny Pickett thin prior (110 dropbacks) | QB | CAR | @ CLE | 0.6 | -17.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 2.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 41 | Tyler Huntley thin prior (90 dropbacks) | QB | BAL | @ DAL | 0.5 | -17.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 42 | Jarrett Stidham thin prior (15 dropbacks) | QB | DEN | vs LA | 0.5 | -17.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 43 | Athan Kaliakmanis thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | WAS | vs SEA | 0.5 | -17.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 44 | Drew Lock thin prior (76 dropbacks) | QB | SEA | @ WAS | 0.5 | -17.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 45 | Joshua Dobbs thin prior (109 dropbacks) | QB | DET | vs NYJ | 0.5 | -17.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 46 | Jake Haener thin prior (14 dropbacks) | QB | NYG | vs TEN | 0.5 | -17.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 47 | Quinn Ewers thin prior (46 dropbacks) | QB | JAX | vs NE | 0.5 | -17.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 48 | Spencer Rattler | QB | NO | vs LV | 0.5 | -17.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 49 | Kyle Allen thin prior (4 dropbacks) | QB | BUF | vs LAC | 0.5 | -17.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 50 | Tyrod Taylor thin prior (120 dropbacks) | QB | GB | vs ATL | 0.5 | -17.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 51 | Stetson Bennett thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | LA | @ DEN | 0.4 | -17.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 52 | Tommy DeVito thin prior (58 dropbacks) | QB | NE | @ JAX | 0.4 | -17.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 53 | Andy Dalton thin prior (85 dropbacks) | QB | PHI | @ CHI | 0.4 | -17.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 54 | Kyle McCord thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | MIA | vs KC | 0.4 | -17.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 55 | Davis Mills thin prior (103 dropbacks) | QB | HOU | @ IND | 0.4 | -17.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 56 | Jalon Daniels thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | TB | vs MIN | 0.4 | -17.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 57 | Justin Fields | QB | KC | @ MIA | 0.4 | -17.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 58 | Mitchell Trubisky thin prior (48 dropbacks) | QB | TEN | @ NYG | 0.4 | -17.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 59 | Tua Tagovailoa | QB | ATL | @ GB | 0.4 | -17.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 60 | Gardner Minshew | QB | ARI | @ SF | 0.3 | -17.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 61 | Cade Klubnik thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | NYJ | @ DET | 0.3 | -17.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 62 | Fernando Mendoza thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | LV | @ NO | 0.3 | -17.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 63 | Joe Flacco | QB | CIN | @ PIT | 0.3 | -17.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 64 | Trey Lance thin prior (45 dropbacks) | QB | LAC | @ BUF | Q · 40% | 0.2 | -17.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 65 | Garrett Nussmeier thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | KC | @ MIA | 0.0 | -17.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 66 | Brady Cook thin prior (86 dropbacks) | QB | MIA | vs KC | 0.0 | -17.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 67 | J.J. McCarthy thin prior (135 dropbacks) | QB | MIN | @ TB | 0.0 | -17.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 68 | Drew Allar thin prior (0 dropbacks) | QB | PIT | vs CIN | 0.0 | -17.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
VORP = this player's points minus the points of the last startable player at his position (hover the VORP cell to see who). Baseline rank = teams × starters, with FLEX split RB/WR/TE 45/45/10.
Known limitations
- Thin priors over-projected QBs. Efficiency comes from 2023–25, regressed toward the league average by sample size. Over Weeks 1–4, QB1s whose prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted dropbacks were projected +3.9 PPR a game too high (9 QBs; established QB1s +0.1). Those rows carry a thin prior chip. From Week 7 (model n8-v3) a QB's passing rates also read his own 2026 dropbacks, weighted against the prior's sample plus a fixed anchor, so a few snaps barely move them. On Weeks 5–6 this halved the thin-QB bias. Rushing rates and the game lines still use the prior: the game-level check of the same change failed.
- Team pass volume is a 2023–25 prior too; in-season, only player shares blend toward what is observed. Blending team volume in-season was tested twice and lost to the prior both times.