NFL Player Projections

Week 1 — opponent-adjusted (this week's defence, home/away), availability-weighted, byes zeroed. Components (volume × efficiency) with scoring applied as a view. Model n8-v2 · updated 46d ago.

Week: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8• Season Position: All QB RB WR TE

Scoring: PPR Half Standard DK Rank by: VORP Points ⬇ CSV

League & scoring settings — server-side, from your stored component projections; the URL is the saved config

68 players · ranked by VORP under half_ppr scoring, 12-team league (1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1FLEX). thin prior (n) = the efficiency prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted 2023–25 dropbacks (QB) or 55 touches (RB/WR/TE), so the league average carries about half or more of the line's efficiency; ⚠ = low-sample / rookie (archetype-driven). A designation like Q · 60% means the line is weighted by that play probability; BYE rows project 0 and are kept visible.

Replacement level (VORP is measured against these): QB12 Patrick Mahomes · 17.1 pts · RB29 Ashton Jeanty · 9.2 pts · WR41 Jordan Addison · 8.0 pts · TE13 Colby Parkinson · 6.5 pts

#	Player	Pos	Tm	Opp	Pts	VORP	Car	RuYd	RuTD	PaAtt	PaYd	PaTD	INT
1	Jalen Hurts	QB	PHI	vs WAS	20.6	+3.5	5.3	23.6	0.4	29.7	242.2	1.6	0.5
2	Joe Burrow	QB	CIN	vs TB	20.3	+3.2	1.7	7.2	0.1	36.8	274.6	2.2	0.7
3	Justin Herbert	QB	LAC	vs ARI	19.0	+1.9	3.0	15.6	0.2	33.1	259.4	1.7	0.6
4	Jared Goff	QB	DET	vs NO	19.0	+1.9	1.9	6.7	0.1	33.8	267.4	1.9	0.7
5	Dak Prescott	QB	DAL	@ NYG	18.8	+1.7	2.5	10.5	0.2	36.2	263.3	1.7	0.7
6	Matthew Stafford	QB	LA	vs SF	18.6	+1.6	1.8	6.0	0.1	34.1	258.0	1.9	0.6
7	Lamar Jackson	QB	BAL	@ IND	18.6	+1.5	4.3	22.2	0.2	27.5	220.2	1.7	0.5
8	Baker Mayfield	QB	TB	@ CIN	18.4	+1.3	2.7	14.1	0.2	33.1	241.9	1.8	0.7
9	Josh Allen	QB	BUF	@ HOU	17.6	+0.6	4.2	19.0	0.4	30.9	213.4	1.4	0.7
10	Sam Darnold	QB	SEA	vs NE	17.6	+0.6	1.4	5.3	0.1	31.6	262.0	1.8	0.8
11	Brock Purdy	QB	SF	@ LA	17.1	+0.1	2.2	9.2	0.1	32.1	241.3	1.6	0.9
12	Patrick Mahomes	QB	KC	vs DEN	17.1	+0.0	2.3	12.4	0.1	34.8	241.7	1.5	0.8
13	Malik Willis thin prior (39 dropbacks)	QB	MIA	@ LV	16.9	-0.1	2.2	10.0	0.1	31.4	243.4	1.5	0.5
14	C.J. Stroud	QB	HOU	vs BUF	16.9	-0.2	2.1	10.1	0.1	33.9	249.2	1.5	0.7
15	Trevor Lawrence	QB	JAX	vs CLE	16.9	-0.2	3.0	13.8	0.2	33.4	227.6	1.5	0.8
16	Jaxson Dart	QB	NYG	vs DAL	16.8	-0.3	2.3	11.9	0.2	32.1	229.5	1.5	0.6
17	Caleb Williams	QB	CHI	@ CAR	16.6	-0.4	3.0	15.2	0.2	32.9	223.7	1.4	0.4
18	Drake Maye	QB	NE	@ SEA	16.6	-0.5	2.9	13.0	0.2	30.9	226.5	1.5	0.6
19	Kirk Cousins	QB	LV	vs MIA	16.2	-0.8	1.9	6.5	0.1	32.9	245.7	1.5	0.8
20	Bo Nix	QB	DEN	@ KC	16.1	-1.0	3.4	14.5	0.2	33.9	211.5	1.4	0.7
21	Kyler Murray	QB	MIN	vs GB	15.7	-1.4	2.2	12.3	0.2	31.5	224.6	1.3	0.7
22	Geno Smith	QB	NYJ	@ TEN	15.3	-1.7	1.9	7.6	0.1	32.4	235.1	1.4	0.8
23	Daniel Jones	QB	IND	vs BAL	15.3	-1.8	1.8	7.6	0.1	32.0	233.9	1.3	0.8
24	Jayden Daniels	QB	WAS	@ PHI	15.2	-1.8	3.4	15.9	0.2	30.8	199.9	1.3	0.6
25	Deshaun Watson thin prior (112 dropbacks)	QB	CLE	@ JAX	15.2	-1.9	2.2	9.7	0.1	35.0	220.6	1.3	0.7
26	Aaron Rodgers	QB	PIT	vs ATL	15.1	-2.0	2.0	8.3	0.1	31.2	207.9	1.4	0.6
27	Bryce Young	QB	CAR	vs CHI	15.0	-2.1	2.1	10.5	0.2	31.8	209.7	1.4	0.7
28	Jacoby Brissett	QB	ARI	@ LAC	14.9	-2.2	1.4	5.7	0.1	34.8	220.5	1.4	0.6
29	Tyler Shough	QB	NO	@ DET	14.8	-2.2	1.8	7.5	0.1	34.0	230.9	1.2	0.7
30	Cam Ward	QB	TEN	vs NYJ	14.6	-2.5	1.8	8.2	0.1	32.0	219.6	1.2	0.5
31	Jordan Love	QB	GB	@ MIN	14.4	-2.6	2.1	8.6	0.1	30.1	200.6	1.4	0.6
32	Cooper Rush thin prior (128 dropbacks)	QB	ATL	@ PIT	13.3	-3.8	2.1	7.2	0.1	32.2	200.8	1.2	0.8
33	Anthony Richardson thin prior (103 dropbacks)	QB	IND	vs BAL	0.8	-16.3	0.9	4.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
34	Marcus Mariota thin prior (141 dropbacks)	QB	WAS	@ PHI	0.7	-16.4	0.9	4.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
35	Sam Howell thin prior (141 dropbacks)	QB	DAL	@ NYG	0.6	-16.5	0.7	3.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
36	Shedeur Sanders thin prior (118 dropbacks)	QB	CLE	@ JAX	0.6	-16.5	0.6	3.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
37	Spencer Rattler	QB	NO	@ DET	0.6	-16.5	0.7	3.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
38	Case Keenum thin prior (12 dropbacks)	QB	CHI	@ CAR	0.5	-16.6	0.6	2.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
39	Jarrett Stidham thin prior (15 dropbacks)	QB	DEN	@ KC	0.5	-16.6	0.6	2.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
40	Tyler Huntley thin prior (90 dropbacks)	QB	BAL	@ IND	0.5	-16.6	0.6	2.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
41	Jameis Winston thin prior (140 dropbacks)	QB	NYG	vs DAL	0.5	-16.6	0.5	2.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
42	Trey Lance thin prior (45 dropbacks)	QB	LAC	vs ARI	0.5	-16.6	0.5	2.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
43	Andy Dalton thin prior (85 dropbacks)	QB	PHI	vs WAS	0.5	-16.6	0.6	2.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
44	Joshua Dobbs thin prior (109 dropbacks)	QB	DET	vs NO	0.5	-16.6	0.5	2.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
45	Davis Mills thin prior (103 dropbacks)	QB	HOU	vs BUF	0.5	-16.6	0.5	2.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
46	Nick Mullens thin prior (34 dropbacks)	QB	JAX	vs CLE	0.5	-16.6	0.6	2.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
47	Carson Wentz thin prior (106 dropbacks)	QB	MIN	vs GB	0.5	-16.6	0.5	2.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
48	Jalon Daniels thin prior (0 dropbacks)	QB	TB	@ CIN	0.4	-16.6	0.6	2.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
49	Stetson Bennett thin prior (0 dropbacks)	QB	LA	vs SF	0.4	-16.6	0.5	2.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
50	Mason Rudolph thin prior (115 dropbacks)	QB	PIT	vs ATL	0.4	-16.6	0.5	2.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
51	Kenny Pickett thin prior (110 dropbacks)	QB	CAR	vs CHI	0.4	-16.7	0.5	2.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
52	Tyrod Taylor thin prior (120 dropbacks)	QB	GB	@ MIN	0.4	-16.7	0.6	2.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
53	Tommy DeVito thin prior (58 dropbacks)	QB	NE	@ SEA	0.4	-16.7	0.6	2.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
54	Kyle Allen thin prior (4 dropbacks)	QB	BUF	@ HOU	0.4	-16.7	0.6	2.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
55	Mitchell Trubisky thin prior (48 dropbacks)	QB	TEN	vs NYJ	0.4	-16.7	0.5	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
56	Justin Fields	QB	KC	vs DEN	0.4	-16.7	0.5	2.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
57	Kyle McCord thin prior (0 dropbacks)	QB	MIA	@ LV	0.4	-16.7	0.5	2.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
58	Jack Strand thin prior (0 dropbacks)	QB	ATL	@ PIT	0.4	-16.7	0.5	1.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
59	Fernando Mendoza thin prior (0 dropbacks)	QB	LV	vs MIA	0.4	-16.7	0.5	1.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
60	Mac Jones	QB	SF	@ LA	0.4	-16.7	0.6	1.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
61	Cade Klubnik thin prior (0 dropbacks)	QB	NYJ	@ TEN	0.3	-16.7	0.5	1.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
62	Drew Lock thin prior (76 dropbacks)	QB	SEA	vs NE	0.3	-16.8	0.4	1.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
63	Joe Flacco	QB	CIN	vs TB	0.3	-16.8	0.5	1.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
64	Gardner Minshew	QB	ARI	@ LAC	0.3	-16.8	0.4	1.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
65	Skylar Thompson thin prior (12 dropbacks)	QB	BAL	@ IND	0.0	-17.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
66	Dillon Gabriel thin prior (102 dropbacks)	QB	CLE	@ JAX	0.0	-17.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
67	Graham Mertz thin prior (0 dropbacks)	QB	HOU	vs BUF	0.0	-17.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
68	Matthew Caldwell thin prior (0 dropbacks)	QB	LA	vs SF	0.0	-17.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

VORP = this player's points minus the points of the last startable player at his position (hover the VORP cell to see who). Baseline rank = teams × starters, with FLEX split RB/WR/TE 45/45/10.

Known limitations

Thin priors over-projected QBs. Efficiency comes from 2023–25, regressed toward the league average by sample size. Over Weeks 1–4, QB1s whose prior rests on fewer than 150 weighted dropbacks were projected +3.9 PPR a game too high (9 QBs; established QB1s +0.1). Those rows carry a thin prior chip. From Week 7 (model n8-v3) a QB's passing rates also read his own 2026 dropbacks, weighted against the prior's sample plus a fixed anchor, so a few snaps barely move them. On Weeks 5–6 this halved the thin-QB bias. Rushing rates and the game lines still use the prior: the game-level check of the same change failed.
Team pass volume is a 2023–25 prior too; in-season, only player shares blend toward what is observed. Blending team volume in-season was tested twice and lost to the prior both times.